KANSAS CITY, MO (December 31, 2012) – The Kansas City Royals today announced the club has signed outfielder Endy Chavez to a minor league contract for 2013.  The Royals plan to announce the club’s Major League camp non-roster invitees at a later date.

Chavez, 34, is an 11-year Major League veteran.  He made his debut in 2001 with Kansas City after the Royals selected him from the New York Mets organization in the 2000 Rule 5 Draft.  The 6-foot resident of Valencia, Venezuela, is a career .269 hitter with 118 doubles, 32 triples, 26 home runs, 229 RBI, 341 runs and 100 stolen bases for the Royals (2001), Expos (2002-04), Nationals (2005), Phillies (2005), Mets (2006-08), Mariners (2009), Rangers (2011) and Orioles (2012).  The left-handed hitting and throwing outfielder appeared in 64 regular season games with Baltimore last season, also playing in three Division Series games against the Yankees.

After the 2012 season, it’s easy to accept the Royals will always lose and nothing will change. It’s hard to be optimistic and defend a sports team who hasn’t been above .500 since 2003 and not in the playoffs since 1985.

So should I and other Royals fans be more optimistic? I think so. Look, if the Baltimore Orioles can make the playoffs, so can the Royals.

You could call the Orioles the Royals of the A.L. East. In 2011, the Orioles had a 69-93 record. The last time they won 70 games was 2006. The last time they went over .500 was 1997. This year, the Orioles went 93-69, winning the Wild Card play-in game against the Rangers before losing the ALDS against the Yankees.

The Orioles weren’t supposed to be this good. Their Pythagorean win-loss record was 82-80 and many figured the team would finish towards the bottom of the A.L. East.

The Yankees won the A.L. East, but only by two games over the Orioles. The Rays played well, but “only” won 90 games, missing the playoffs. The Jays were Royals-like at 73-89. The Red Sox finished 69-93 and showed Bobby Valentine the door.

So what made the Orioles so good? It had to be their top-shelf starting pitching. Well, not really. The starters had a 4.42 team ERA, ninth in the A.L. and 21st in the the Majors. Their “ace” pitcher, Wei-Yin Chen, had a 4.02 ERA, a 12-11 record, pitched 192.2 innings with a 2.70 SO/BB ratio.

The Royals starters had a 5.01 team ERA, 11th in the A.L. and 26th in the Majors. That’s not too far off from the Orioles. The Royals “ace” was Bruce Chen, with a 5.07 ERA, a 11-14 record, pitching 191.2 innings with 2.98 SO/BB ratio. If Luke Hochevar wasn’t Luke Hochevar and Jeremy Guthrie had a full season with the Royals, The Royals starting rotation could be better than the Orioles rotation.

How about the bullpen? The Orioles had a 3.00 team ERA, third in the A.L. and fifth in the Majors. Just behind them were the Royals with a 3.17 team ERA, fourth in the A.L. and sixth in the Majors. The Royals had 535 strikeouts, the most in the A.L., but the Orioles had a 1.21 WHIP, compared to the Royals 1.34 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen was a factor, but it wasn’t the main reason they made the playoffs.

How about the Orioles lineup? Center fielder Adam Jones led the team with a .287 average, 103 runs and 16 stolen bases. DH Chris Davis led with 33 home runs and 85 RBI. As a team, the Orioles had a .247 average, 677 RBI, 270 doubles, 214 home runs, scoring 712 runs while allowing 705 runs.

Meanwhile, DH Billy Butler led the team with a .313 average, 29 homers and 107 RBI. Alex Gordon led the team with 93 runs and Alcides Escobar stole a team high 35 bases. As a team, the Royals had a .265 average, 643 RBI, 295 doubles, 131 home runs, scoring 676 runs and allowing 746 runs.

The Royals had a better batting average and more doubles, but the Orioles had 83 more home runs and 34 more RBI. And the Royals gave up a lot more runs than they scored. Having a good team batting average and hitting doubles helps, but scoring more runs wins more games. The Orioles did a better job offensively than the Royals, but it wasn’t a big reason the Orioles played so well.

So what was it? The Orioles had something the Royals didn’t have much of: luck. There’s a stat called Pythagorean Luck, which is the difference between the actual win-loss record and the Pythagorean win-loss record. The Orioles were the best in the Majors with an 11 luck score and played way above expectations. The Royals were -2 and played slightly below expectations.

When the Orioles were in a close or extra inning game, they usually won. In one run games, the Orioles had a 29-9 record, the best in the Majors. The Royals were 27-26, which is at least above .500. The Orioles also had the best extra inning record in the Majors at 16-2. The Royals were 8-7, once again above .500. And the Orioles never lost a regular season game when they led after seven innings.

And love him or hate him, manager Buck Showalter did a good job managing the team. He’s obsessively detail oriented and after a while he usually wears out his welcome, but he’s a frontrunner for A.L. Manager of the Year.

Now the Orioles were far from perfect. The lack of an ace showed itself in the playoffs, even with the Yankees being offensively challenged. And a team can’t expect to win a majority of one run and extra inning games every year. And outside of pitcher Dylan Bundy and third baseman Manny Machado, the Orioles farm system is pretty shallow.

But the Orioles prove with timely performances, a average starting rotation and some luck, a team can win and make the playoffs, even in a strong A.L. East. There’s no excuses for the Kansas City Royals now. If the Baltimore Orioles can do it, the Royals can too.

By now I’m sure just about every Kansas City Royals fan has heard about Danny Parkins’ interview* with David Glass on the first day of All Star Weekend. Glass, of course, came off as aloof and utterly clueless as he ever has, and earned as much ire for the way he ended the interview as he did for anything he said. He sparked a Twitter debate amongst the fan base over who is more to blame, him or Dayton Moore. You know, exactly the type of thing you want to do as you begin to welcome all of baseball to your city for the first time in nearly 40 years.

* For a transcript of the interview, click here

While it was completely unprofessional for Glass to walk away from the microphone mid-interview, that really isn’t what bugged me about the whole debacle. It was this exchange here:

Parkins: What do you say to fans that wish you spend more on payroll for this team?

Glass: Uhh, Well, in a market this size you can spend a certain amount on payroll. You… You’re never going to be able to spend what the Yankees and the other big market teams can spend but our approach from the very beginning has been that we’re not looking to make money with the franchise we simply want to break even and if we have an if we have an opportunity to win we’ll step up and do whatever it takes to… to help us take that extra step. But for the most part all the money that we can generate we’ll spend on payroll and singing amateur players

We have heard this song and dance from Glass since he bought the team in 2000 and it has been the source of much debate. There are a lot of people that think professional sports owners should expect to operate at a loss, as if owning a professional team is a charity, I am not one of those people. However, I do feel like owners should at least be honest with the fans about their plan, and their motives…a look at the numbers show Glass has been far from honest.

According to Forbes annual MLB valuation, the Royals turned a profit of $10.3 million in 2011, their eighth consecutive season of profits and the eleventh out of twelve since Glass bought the team in 2000. What’s more, the team is now valued at $354 million dollars. While that may be modest in terms of the value of a professional franchise, it is $258 million more than Glass paid originally. Added to the income the Royals generated over the last 13 years, it brings a net gain of $332 million in 12 years on a $96 million investment.

To put that in perspective, if Glass had taken that $96 million back in the year 2000 and invested it, he would have had to earn 13.27% for twelve years in a row to bring in the type of money this club has for him. Does that sound like breaking even to you?

What makes everything so much worse is that Glass has turned this profit while fielding one of the worst teams in the history of baseball. In his 12+ years as owner the Royals are 847-1179 (.418). Before he took over they were 2471-2411 (.506) all-time. That’s the difference between averaging 82 wins a year and 68. But it’s getting better lately right? Um, Forbes projects 2012 as the most profitable year of the Glass era, with the team earning a whopping $28.5 million in income. This for a team that was less than 6 games out of first for a good part of June after three of its best pitchers had Tommy John surgery. How much different would this team look if Glass had signed C.J. Wilson for 5 years and $85 million dollars? He could have done that and still cleared more than $10 million in profit!

The fact is that Mr. Glass has not only tarnished, but nearly destroyed the legacy that Ewing Kauffman left with the Kansas City Royals, profited handsomely from it, and lied through his teeth to his customers as he’s done it. Glass purchased a respected franchise with a World Championship and a history of winning more than losing. He has turned it into a cash cow that doubles as the laughingstock of baseball. What can we do about it? Nothing, as evidenced by this exchange from the aforementioned interview:

Parkins: You would never consider selling the team?

Glass: No.

Parkins: What do you say to fans who would like you to sell the team?

Glass: Uhh, yeah, I’m sorry.

Sorry…I could not have said it better myself. A sorry excuse for an owner…a sorry steward of the Kauffman legacy…but one hell of a businessman.

Are the 2012 Kansas City Royals a bad baseball team? This question that was asked frequently during the notorious twelve game losing streak. Because the losing streak happened so early in the season it is a legitimate question. I know the 2012 version of the Royals is not a good team. Good teams don’t go on twelve game losing streaks and have starting pitchers with ERAs above 7. However, does this Royals team have the potential to get near .500 like we anticipated in March? Or are we looking at another 100 loss season? There is only one place to find these answers: Baseball-Reference.

The Royals have had four 100 loss seasons in their history. Let’s see how the 2012 Royals would stack up if they were in a division with those four teams after 25 games:

Year W L GP GB
2002 8 17 25 -
2004 8 17 25 -
2012 8 17 25 -
2005 7 18 25 -1
2006 5 20 25 -3

As you can tell the 2012 Royals are in some bad company. You can tell me this team is more talented than those teams. You can tell me that their Pythagorean W-L shows a record of 10-15 and that the Royals have been “unlucky” so far this season. The team is playing better and has won 5 out of their last 8 since ending the losing streak. Including what I consider to be Mike Moustakas’ emergence as “player” on the major league level. Yes, injuries have been a major problem and I expect this team will play a lot better when Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez, and Felipe Paulino return from the disabled list. However, other major league teams have injury issues too. Even the 2005 Royals had a stretch from May 31st to Jun 16th where they won 11 of 15, including a 3 game sweep of the Yankees at Kauffman Stadium. I remember that sweep well; it was the highlight of that season.

The reality is this team has real pitching problems. It’s not like we didn’t know pitching could be an issue. It became apparent early last season that the pitching at the major league level and in the minors was not going to be enough open a “playoff” window anytime soon. It is such a major story line for me I wrote about it four times last season: here, here, here and here.

If the Royals are ever going to contend be a mediocre team instead of terrible they will need to add pitching. Danny Duffy has made some strides this season at becoming an ace pitcher this team needs. However, Duffy is just one pitcher. Felipe Paulino has shown some promise but a long way from a sure bet. I don’t see Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar as long term solutions.

It’s frustrating that six years after Dayton Moore said “pitching is the currency of baseball” not much has improved among the starting rotation. There needs to be more pitching. Pitching is expensive whether you trade for it, or pay for it. The problem is, Even if ownership approves such a costly move, which is up for debate in the first place. I don’t have confidence in this front office to execute such a deal. Dayton Moore has been flat out schooled in trades at the major league level.

That is why I’m leaning toward this version of the Royals being a bad team. The glaring holes in the roster configuration have not been fixed from last year. Not to mention this team seems to lose focus a lot more than last year. I think the likelihood that this is another 100 loss season is greater than the Royals turning it around and getting near .500. The next question is, can the front office get enough pitching before it’s time for this young nucleus to chase their free agent contracts?

The first post-season addition by the Royals was to collect Aaron Laffey off the waivers scrapheap.

Those hoping KC will add significant starting pitching help won’t bat an eye at this signing. But what does the addition of Laffey mean for the 2012 Royals, if anything?

Laffey was waived twice at the end of the season. Neither of those moves speaks well for the lefthander – he was let go by the horrible Mariners, then he was deemed unworthy of the late-season expanded roster of the Yankees.

But things haven’t always been so bleak for Laffey. His career started well enough. In 2007, at just 22, he went 4-2 as a starter for the Indians, and even pitched four scoreless innings of relief in a playoff game that fall.

Laffey spent two more full season with Cleveland pitching as a starter. His ERA and WHIP were decent. But he moved to the bullpen and soon his walks to strikeouts were about even, while his WHIP continued to climb.

At just 25, Cleveland gave up on him.

The Indians thought so little of Laffey, they traded him just prior to last season for an unknown minor leaguer. He pitched unspectacularly out of the pen for Seattle, until they let him go. The Yankees scooped him up for the playoff push in August. He was used sparingly and unceremoniously dumped before the playoffs.

Laffey has strangely gotten worse with every season. While his ERA in 2011 (3.88) was lower than his career ERA going into the season (4.41) he did pitch fewer innings than in any season before. His WHIP has, remarkably, increased every season.

Does that mean he offers nothing to the Royals?

Well, the Royals may hope Laffey can be an improvement over their lefty relief options from last year – Tim Collins and Everett Teaford. But Laffey’s typical numbers are not as good as what Collins and Teaford posted last season.

The one thing he does bring, however, is experience. Laffey has pitched in 126 games in his career, logging 373.2 innings. Collins and Teaford together combined for 111 shaky innings in 2011.

When Laffey was regarded as a top prospect, scouts liked his ability to induce ground balls with his offspeed stuff. Never overpowering – he traditionally allows better than three base runners per strikeout – Laffey will have to bring crafty situational stuff to the table to compete with Collins and Teaford.

Since the Royals will be reluctant to spend much money this off-season, Laffey will probably find a role in the KC pen. But if you asked Cleveland, Seattle and the Yankees, they don’t figure the addition will be of significance.

We’ll see if they’re right.

As we prepare for the finale of this exciting series, and its marquee Game 5 matchup of two former Cy Young Award winners, let us take a walk down memory lane, and look at the Cardinal history in Game 7s (and Game 5 for the NLDS).

St Louis is the preeminent franchise in the National League, second only to the Yankees in terms of World Series wins. All that success means the team has had multiple occasions to play a one game, winner-take-all contest. For example, the Cardinals played seven consecutive World Series Game 7s from 1946 to 1987. How did they fare in those opportunities?

The Early Years (1926-1967)

Their first World Series appearance went seven games. The Cardinals won that game, which ended with my personal favorite game-ending play for any World Series, namely Babe Ruth getting thrown out trying to steal second. Can you imagine the amount of ink, hot air, and bandwidth that would be consumed dissecting that decision if it happened in 2006 instead of 1926?

Having started well, the Cardinals kept rolling. They defeated the Philadelphia A’s to win the Fall Classic in 1931, and took out Detroit in Tiger Stadium to win the Series three years later. Enos Slaughter’s mad dash home secured the 1946 title in front of the home town fans, and Bob Gibson wrestled those mighty Yankees into submission 18 years later in front of those same fans. The Boston Globe learned the price of publishing a great headline prematurely (‘Lonborg and Champagne’), as Gibson extended Cardinal dominance and Boston angst with a 1967 Game 7 win at Fenway.

So six Game 7s had come and gone, and the Cardinals had won all six. They were invincible when all the chips were down. No one wanted to play them in those situations, no matter where the game was to be contested.

The Desert of Futility (1968-2001)

Was it Curt Flood’s slip? Was it Lou Brock getting thrown out at the plate two games earlier? Was it the law of averages finally catching up to them? Probably some combination of the three. The Detroit Tigers, led by Denny McLain, beat St Louis at home in that 1968 Game 7. After that, Cardinal dominance in Game 7s ceased. They continued to win the Game 7s played at home, clinching the World Series against Milwaukee, defeating both Los Angeles and San Francisco in the LCS.

But on the road they were hapless. The Cardinals blew a 3-1 series lead in 1985, dropping Game 7 in Kansas City. They blew a 3-2 lead two years later, losing to the Twins in the Homer Dome. Then, when they returned to the post-season 10 years later, even their home mojo disappeared. They blew another 3-1 lead, getting embarrassed by the Atlanta Braves and losing the NLCS for the first time. Finally, to conclude their first best-of-five playoff series that went the distance, they lost a heartbreaker in the Arizona desert.

Return to Normalcy (2002-present)

They needed a great play or seminal moment to change their luck. They got one, and it occurred in a Game 7. The Cardinals played their next winner-take-all game to close out the 2004 NLCS against Houston. The Astros looked poised to take complete control of the game when with two on and one out, Brad Ausmus hit a fliner into the left-center field gap. Jim Edmonds ran it down, making a spectacular diving catch to keep the runners at their respective bases. St Louis went on to win the game and the National League.

They played another Game 7 two years later, and thanks to a Yadier Molina HR in the top of the ninth, St Louis beat the Mets 3-1 at Shea. It marked the first time since the 1967 World Series the Cardinals had won a Game 7 on the road.

Summation

Over 85 years of playoff baseball, the Cardinals have played 15 Game 7s and 1 Game 5. They are 7-1 as a franchise at home in those games, and 4-4 on the road. In comparison, the Philadelphia Phillies have never played a Game 7. They have played 2 Game 5s, winning the first, beating the Astros in extra innings to win the NL in 1980. But, they lost the second, to the Dodgers a year later* in the same situation.

What does it all mean? No Phillie on the current roster has ever played in a Game 5/7 for that franchise. The Cardinals have 4 men left from the 2006 playoff run: Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and … Chris Carpenter, tonight’s starter. Additionally, tradition here has to favor St Louis. Plus, the veterans who played in those games of yore – men like Lou Brock, Gibson, Red Schoendienst, Willie McGee, even Stan Musial – keep that tradition alive by being a part of the locker room during spring training, and passing that tradition on to the current generation.

Everyone looks for even the slightest edge in games like this. Only in games like this can intangibles play a role. Experience and tradition favor the Cardinals. That has to count for something. It might be the last straw they need to break the Phillies back.

* Editor’s Note: It should be noted that this game five in Phillies history in 1981 was the first ever division series. This series was mandated by the players strike that year.

This past weekend, the Royals clinched their season-long series against the White Sox 11-7. It was the first time since 2000 that the Royals completed this feat, but don’t expect it to be another 11 years before it happens again.

After the game on Sunday, Ozzie Guillen said “They’re (the Royals) going to be awesome. They’re not too far away.” And on Monday night, it was announced that Guillen was leaving the White Sox to coach the Miami Marlins in 2012.

There, White Sox fans. Now do you believe it? Your (former) manager just gave a bigger compliment to a division rival than he gave to your team all year long. Something’s got to be going right in Kansas City now, doesn’t it?

Over the weekend, I got to catch up with some friends who I haven’t seen in a while and (of course) talk about baseball. Most of them are fans of teams in the Midwest like the White Sox, Cubs, and Twins. Naturally, a few of them are fans of the Red Sox or Yankees. For the most part, they all see the Royals’ record and say, “Those are the Royals we’ve all come to know.” The Royals have been getting national hype from guys like Peter Gammons and Steven Berthiaume lately, but not many people are noticing besides fans in Kansas City. This is completely understandable, because I don’t follow any other team as closely as I do the Royals. I couldn’t tell you much about White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza or half of the Twins’ roster that they trot out on a nightly basis. What I do know is that the majority of the MLB is taking notice of the Royals. Especially everyone in the AL Central.

In his postgame press conference last night, Guillen went on to compliment the Royals. “I talked to Manny Acta and any manager in our division,’’ he said. “The first thing they talk about is how good [the Royals] are and how hard they hit the ball. You talk about the future, I think these are maybe the guys with the best future in our division,” he added. “You look at Detroit, they’ve got the big boys, but in the future, I think Kansas City is way in front of a lot of teams.”

For how much Ozzie hated losing to the Royals this year, I take these statements as a huge endorsement. Thanks, Ozzie. Looks like you picked the right time to get out of the AL Central.

If you’re looking for a hard hitting article that sheds light on crime in sports, you clicked on the wrong article. This article might be more to your liking.

Is stealing bases worth the risk?

This article is about a different crime; The Stolen Base. If you’ve watched the Royals for any amount of time this season, or previous seasons you’ve probably noticed that the Royals organization wants you to know that the Royals are pretty good at stealing bases. In fact as of this writing (mostly on Thursday 8/18/11, all stats referenced in this article are based off the games ending on 8/17. By the time today roles around they will have changed) they are tied with Yankees as league leaders in stolen bases at 120. The problem is the Yankees are tied with the Boston Red Sox in another statistic; Wins, 74. It’s nice that the Royals lead the league in a positive offensive category. However, as a fan I’d like to see that offensive category mean something. The Yankees are stealing bases and winning games. If the Yankees are doing it, it must be a good idea, right?

I’ve been writing for I70 Baseball for about six months. This will be my first attempt at using statistical analysis to make a point. Maybe I should clarify. I haven’t actually done the research yet we’ll find out together. The way I look at it, when a team is on offense the goal is to score runs. I do not fancy myself a Stathead, but I know one thing: Teams that score more runs than their opponents at the end of nine innings are undefeated. Because of this I’m going to look at the correlation between a team leading the league in stolen bases, and see if that means they end up near the stop of the league in runs scored.

To accomplish this I looked back five complete seasons; essentially the Dayton Moore era in Kansas City; and looked at the top five teams in stolen bases from the American League. Here is the Data:

2006:
1. LA Angels – 148 SB, 11th in RS, 766 R, 89 Wins, 2nd in ALW
2. NY Yankees – 139 SB, 1st in RS, 930 R, 97 Wins, Lost in ALDS
3. Tampay Bay – 134 SB, 14th in RS, 689 R, 61 Wins, 5th in ALE
4. Baltimore – 121 SB, 10th in RS, 768 R, 70 Wins, 4th in ALE
5. Seattle – 106 SB, 13th in RS, 756 R, 78 Wins, 4th ALW

2007:
1. Baltimore – 144 SB, 9th in RS, 756 R, 69 Wins, 4th in ALE
2. LA Angels – 139 SB, 4th in RS, 822 R, 94 Wins, Lost in ALDS
3. Tampa Bay – 131 SB, 8th in RS, 782 R, 66 Wins, 5th in ALE
4. NY Yankees – 123 SB, 1st in RS, 968 R, 94 Wins, Lost ALDS
5. Minnesota – 112 SB, 12th in RS, 718 R, 79 Wins, 3rd in ALC

2008:
1. Tampa Bay – 142 SB, 9th in RS, 774 R, 97 Wins, World Series Runner Up
2. LA Angels – 129 SB, 10th in RS, 765 R, 100 Wins, Lost ALDS
3. Boston – 120 SB, 2nd in RS, 845 R, 95 Wins, Lost ALCS
4. NY Yankee – 118 SB, 7th in RS, 789 R, 89 Wins, 3rd in ALE
5. Minnesota – 102 SB, 3rd in RS, 829 R, 88 Wins, 2nd in ALC

2009:
1. Tampa Bay – 194 SB, 5th in RS, 803 R, 84 Wins, 3rd in ALE
2. Texas – 149 SB, 7th in RS, 784 R, 87 Wins, 2nd in ALW
3. AL Angels – 148 SB, 2nd in RS, 883 R, 97 Wins, Lost ALCS
4. Oakland – 133 SB, 9th in RS, 759 R, 75 Wins, 4th in ALW
5. Boston – 126 SB, 3rd in RS, 872 R, 95 Wins, Lost ALDS

2010:
1. Tampa Bay – 172 SB, 3rd in RS, 802 R, 96 Wins, Lost ALDS
2. White Sox – 160 SB, 7th in RS, 752 R, 88 Wins, 2nd in ALC
3. Oakland – 156 SB, 11th in RS, 663 R, 81 Wins, 2nd in ALW
4. Seattle – 142 SB, 14th in RS, 513 R, 61 Wins, 4th in ALW
5. Texas – 123 SB, 4th in RS, 787 R, 90 Wins, World Series Runner-Up

The average rank in runs scored is 7.16, or a little worse than half. Average number of wins is 84.8, might win you a bad division. There are two World Series runner-ups in this group. There are the 2010 Mariners, who were one of the worst offensive teams in several years. Ten of the teams made the play-offs. There is no correlation between stealing bases and scoring runs, and there is even less correlation to overall team success. When I look at who the teams are on this list I make two observations. The first, teams with bad offenses use the stolen base to make up for their line-up’s weaknesses. As you can tell this doesn’t work that well. The stolen base will not make up for a weak offense. The second, is teams with good offenses do everything well, and will use the stolen base get better.

It’s obvious the Royals strategy to be aggressive on the base paths is coming from the front office. I thought the problem was a Trey Hillman thing, but Ned Yost has been even more aggressive. The Royals were 6th in stolen bases last season, see how well that worked out? Now that we have some evidence that stealing bases is a break even proposition at best. Let’s try and figure out if attempting a crime spree is hurting the offense.

I tried to find a statistic of caught stealing runners that would eventually score had they remained at first and their out not been recorded. But apparently I’m not smart enough to find it. If someone knows where I can find it send me an email. I find it hard to believe no one is tracking this. But no fear, we’ll see if the Royals have enough caught stealing numbers to impact their runs scored numbers.

Remember when I said the Yankees lead the league in stolen bases? They do NOT lead the league in caught stealing. The Royals do, 47. Right now the Royals are 6th in the league in runs scored, 540. Even if all the 47 caught base runners scored; which is preposterous; they would only move up to 4th in runs scored, 587. If you use the Pythagorean Expectation this is worth 2.33 wins for the Royals. But that is a best case scenario. Let’s say all of those guilty base runners were in scoring position. A base hit would score them. The Royals are batting .267 as a team. This would net the Royals another 12 runs. Throw that back into the Pythagorean Expectation and you’re looking at .60, just a little over half a win.

I’ve been concerned that the Royals aggressive base running has been hurting their chances of scoring more than it’s been helping. After going through these numbers I’m not sure it matters. Bad offenses will struggle to score no matter how many bases are stolen. If you want to increase wins, preventing runs is the best way to do that. But I don’t need to write an article to spell out the Royals shortcomings on that side of the equation.

August should be a fascinating month in helping determine the future for the Kansas City Royals.

Here’s why: the Royals start out the month with an off day on August 1. Their next off day? Over 20 days later on August 22. Besides those two dates, the Kansas City Royals will be battling through the hottest heat of summer every single day on the field. Mostly, they’ll be visiting other ballparks. But for the 13 games at home, Kauffman Stadium will feel like the middle of the desert. Oh yeah, and they’ll almost exclusively be playing teams with 2010 winning records.

By August, some of the stellar young guys from the team’s stacked farm system, including third base uber-prospect Mike Moustakas, figure to be up on the big-league roster. Their first major test will be to see if they can make it through a taxing month and a brutal schedule.

Mike Moustakas by Erika Lynn

August Breakdown:

Total Games: 29

Home: 13

Road: 16

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 23

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 6

Vs teams in the NL Central: 12

Key Series:

August 15-17 vs. Yankees & August 18-21 vs. Red Sox – For seven straight days in mid-August, the Royals host the elite teams of the AL East (in August, the team also plays on the road against the Blue Jays and the Rays, teams that also had winning records in the AL East in 2010). Although it’s likely the Royals will be out of the race by then, the team has had some success playing the role of spoiler in the past several years. If things go as they have in the past, the eyes of the baseball world could be on Kansas City from Aug. 15-21.

August 26-28 at Cleveland – On the other side of the spectrum, the Royals figure to be battling Cleveland in late August to help determine which team stays out of the cellar in the AL Central. The importance of that achievement is mostly artificial, but what is important is that both of these teams, while they’re likely to be miserable in 2011, have important figures in the farm system who could return their respective organizations to their former glory. The Royals are widely acknowledged to have the superior farm system (not only to Cleveland, but to every other team in baseball), but in a way, it’s like a poker game. The Royals are walking to the table with a huge armful of chips, the Indians with only a short stack. But that’s the thing about gambling: Anybody who steps to the table, no matter how much they start with, has a chance to win big.

Key to a hot month – Sadly, the Royals’ best chance at success in August will probably not occur between the baselines. The beginning of August will be the time to assess any trades made at the deadline. If the Royals can flip some of their current players (Melky, Frenchy and Getzy, I’m lookin’ at you) for even more prospects, it could mean a quicker path to future success. However, if they Royals part with any of their prospects now – for any reason whatsoever – it will be a failure.

If the Royals are below .500… Don’t worry about it. In some ways, the worse the Royals’ record is, the better. A poor August will mean we can finally part with some players who have been hanging onto jobs the last few years (Kyle Davies, I’m lookin’ at you), and it could mean increased playing time for some prospects during the September callups.

If the Royals are above .500… Buy some sunscreen, ’cause the end is near.

The Albert Pujols contract negotiations have been discussed over and over and over again these past few months, and you’d think we’d have heard just about every scenario and perspective imaginable. Yet instead, we keep hearing the same discussion repeatedly. Here are a few different angles for you to digest as the countdown to Pujols’ spring training dwindles.

The Reason for Pujols Deadline

What we’ve heard – “Albert doesn’t want any distractions during the season, so he won’t discuss his contract once he arrives for spring training.

Alternate Perspective – Pujols imposed this deadline because he wants to become a free agent, and doesn’t want to have media members constantly badgering him with contract questions from February 16^th through October. It’s as if he’s already made up his mind that he’s going to test the free agency waters, and this was the least stressful way for him to personally go about achieving that goal.

Does Albert Want to Stay in St. Louis?

What we’ve heard – “Albert has long said he wants to be a Cardinals for life.”

Alternate Perspective – While Pujols has said that, what he’s been saying since about mid-2008 on is “I want to play for a team that shows it will be a constant contender.” Sound familiar? That’s because it’s the same thing LeBron James said in the final seasons of his contract with the Cavaliers. That’s why Cleveland went out and got Shaq, and that’s one of the reasons the Cardinals got Matt Holliday. But really, I view the statement as an easy out for Pujols. Saying “I want to play for a winner” instead of “I want to play for the Cardinals” was his not-so-subtle way of opening the door to the possibility of him leaving.

What Teams are in the Running?

What we’ve heard – “The Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs are the most likely places Pujols could end up because they’ve got the money to do it.”

Alternate Perspective – I’ll again draw a comparison with LeBron James since he was the most recent mega-star to jump ship from his original team. Think back to who his “suitors” were. Most people though he’d go to the Knick, Nets, or Dallas, Orlando, or perhaps he’d remain with Cleveland. He eventually ended up in Miami, though most experts didn’t have the Heat on their radar until the last couple of weeks of negotiations. So the question to ask is: “In the Pujols sweepstakes, who are the Heat?” My dark horse is Cincinnati. They have built a core of young players, and former Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty has built a legitimate contender there. Don’t be surprised to see a mini-reunion between Pujols, Jocketty, Scott Rolen, and a few other former Red Birds.

The 10 Year Deal

What We’ve heard – “The Cardinals can’t afford to give Pujols a 10 year deal, he won’t be worth 30 million dollars during the last 3 years of his contract. It would be one thing if we were in the American League and he could be the designated hitter, but he’ll be useless to the Cardinals by then.”

Alternate Perspective – To jump out of order, I’ll just get the DH argument out of the way. First base is arguable the least strenuous (dare I say easiest) of all the positions on the diamond. Very few long throws, not as much range required as say a middle infielder or outfielder, not hard on the body like a catcher. It’s first base, people! He can play first base until his 40, I really don’t understand why everyone’s been getting all bent out of shape about this issue. Now, will he be worth $30 million dollars when he’s 40? To any other team he could potentially sign with, no. But to the Cardinals, absolutely. Think about all the revenue Pujols will generate for the team. Not only will he have career milestones like 3,000 hits and 500, 600, and maybe 700 career home runs, but he’ll bring in crazy amounts of cash well after he’s retired. Bobble head days and jersey sales could go on for decades; just look at all the Stan Musial jerseys you see around Busch Stadium (and Stan also had a bobble head doll within the past couple of years despite being nearly 5 decades removed from his playing career). So no matter what Pujols makes the next 10 years, it’s a worthwhile investment for the Cardinals. For those of you still hung up on the “he’s not going to be worth $30 million when he’s 38-40 years old” argument, just think of it as buying 7 years for $42 million apiece, and getting 3 years free.

Only time will tell to see how the Pujols’ saga plays out. I’d be utterly stunned if he signed with any team, Cardinals included, before at least mid-November. I have a feeling he’s going to feel out all his options, and he’s earned that right. Selfishly, I hope he remains a Cardinal. Realistically, it’s getting to the point where I’d be surprised if he actually stayed. Hopefully we don’t see a repeat of “The Decision” at any point along the way.