In four years Jason Motte went from a hard-throwing catcher to a pitcher who closed out a World Series championship and became a linchpin in the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen but, as is the case for many closers, now it is his turn to land on the disabled list with arm problems.

The Cardinals announced Saturday that Motte has a right elbow strain and will likely start the season on the disabled list. The team has a viable back-up in Mitchell Boggs, but Boggs could end up being the Cardinals closer for most, if not all, of 2013.

Although Motte technically has a sprained elbow, he underwent an MRI on Friday that found a tear in one of the ligaments. That sounds an awful lot like what shortstop Rafael Furcal experienced when he tore an elbow ligament Aug. 30. Furcal didn’t play the rest of the season and will now miss the 2013 season after he finally had Tommy John surgery.

That’s not to say Motte is headed toward Tommy John surgery and will be out for the year, but a tear in an elbow ligament doesn’t usually heal itself, at least not quickly.

But this isn’t doomsday for the Cardinals. They can still compete for a playoff spot or even win a World Series championship without Motte. Other teams have experienced this type of situation with their closer, and whether they got lucky to have a good fill-in closer or they simply had a deep bullpen, they still won a lot of baseball games.

For example, the 2012 World Series champion San Francisco Giants lost their closer, Brian Wilson, at the beginning of the season. But they eventually gave Sergio Romo the job and he finished game after game all the way to a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.

The Cardinals are even a step ahead of the Giants because they have a back-up closer ready before the season starts. The Giants had a closer-by-committee situation early in the season as pitchers such as Santiago Casilla tried to finish games before they settle on Romo.

The Cardinals already have Boggs ready to make a relatively easy transition from eighth-inning setup reliever to closer. Boggs led the Cardinals with 78 appearances in 2012 and had a National League-best 34 holds.

Plus, the team has a loaded bullpen that should be able to fill in any open spots without much trouble. Flamethrowing righthanded reliever Trevor Rosenthal has the stuff to shut down hitters for one inning, and the Cardinals have a bevy of righthanded relievers such as Fernando Salas and Edward Mujica who can continue to work the middle innings.

Motte’s injury also might affect the battle between Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly for the fifth and final spot in the starting rotation. The Cardinals could decide to give the rookie Miller the starting job and put Kelly in the bullpen since he worked eight games for the Cardinals in relief last season.

In any case, the Cardinals certainly won’t get the type of consistency from the closer’s role they had in 2012. Motte had all 42 saves for the Cardinals last season and tied with Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel for the league lead.

That’s a bit much to expect out of Boggs, who hadn’t had an earned-run average below 3.50 until he broke through last year and posted a 2.21 ERA.

But the Cardinals do have a deep enough team to survive an injury to their closer. This isn’t an obituary for their season, but the words to describe Motte’s 2013 season might already be chiseled in stone.

The talk of the St. Louis Cardinals’ offseason has been the strength of its pitching staff. A particularly exciting component is the potential of the bullpen, which has a chance to be amongst the best in all of baseball. However, there has been one part of the equation that has largely gone unconsidered in most discussion, and this is Fernando Salas. It is a pivotal season for the up and down Salas, and he has potentially as tough of a future to determine as any arm on the roster.

Salas has truly been a jack of bullpen trades since breaking in with the club in 2010. From spot reliever, to set-up man, to a closer who at once, led an eventual World Series Champion team in saves, to a seldom used long-reliever in the course of three months, he’s seen it all, fast. And that leaves him uniquely equipped for a role on the evolving bullpen of the 2013 Cardinals. But where does he best fit in, if at all?

One thing for certain is that a late game role is unlikely. With Jason Motte putting the clamps down on the ninth innings, and the seventh-to-eight inning sequence locked down between Edward Mujica and Mitchell Boggs in the lead roles, with Randy Choate and potentially Trevor Rosenthal on hand as well to add some variety. Earlier on in the game, Marc Rzepczynski would be in the mix, but it this is where Salas has been fit into, the hybrid of “if needed” as bridge/spot reliever. That’s a tough place to sit at, and is very circumstantial to being overtaken by the desire to have another arm in the mix as well, such one of the losers of the battle for the fifth starter, such as Joe Kelly or Lance Lynn. Both would be higher caliber arms, and fit into the role of a prototypical long reliever better.

In all actuality, injury may be his ally. It’s an ugly truth, but it’s an ultimate one in the course of the year: guys get hurt. And this is where Salas’ most valuable asset, his versatility, pays off the most. He can fill in at any level of the pen if the depth is rocked, or the young arms have adjustment issues. The kicker is, he’s far less effective early in games as opposed to late. In his career, the disparity in opponent’s batting average in the sixth and seventh innings (.304 and .276 respectively) in comparison to the eighth and ninth (.188 and .196), yet the backbreaker is that he’s given up 11 of his 14 career home runs in the final two frames. So the gift comes with the curse.

The Cardinals’ ultimate enigma sits in a very fitting place for himself. If there is anybody that could benefit from showing up to Jupiter and looking a lot better than anybody expects, it’s him. For the team, yet another great, battle tested arm to put to use is the best kind of problem to have. But for Salas, he’s a fish that’s swam in many types of water, but risks finding himself out of it completely if can’t find a middle ground. But if he intends to hold some sort of ground in the battle for a spot in this year’s bullpen from day one, he better get accustomed to shooting early and often.

Heading into the 2012 season, the St. Louis Cardinals had lost the best hitter in the game during the past decade. Albert Pujols left the comforts of St. Louis to chase big money, and many thought the Cardinals’ offensive production would leave with him.

Instead, the opposite has been true. Going into play Saturday, the Cardinals were leading the National League in hits, homeruns, RBIs, batting average, runs scored and tied for the league lead in triples.

Simply put, the Cardinals are mashing at the plate so far this season. In fact, the team is on pace to put up offensive numbers far superior to the numbers the World Series champion club did a year ago, even though that team also led the National League in batting average.

That’s not to say people expected the Cardinals to be horrible, but certainly not this good.

Many thought the Cardinals’ pitching staff would have to be incredible for the team to just keep pace this season. Well, it has been great so far. The staff is second in the National League in ERA behind the Washington Nationals.

But the offense has made a strong case that it can carry the team.

Right fielder Carlos Beltran is tied for the National League lead in homeruns and is second in RBIs. Third baseman David Freese is tied for fifth in the league in RBIs. Center fielder Jon Jay is hitting .376. Utility man Matt Carpenter is tied for third in the league in triples. Catcher Yadier Molina is tied for second in doubles and shortstop Rafeal Furcal is tied for the league lead in hits.

Good grief, this team is hitting the tar out of the ball. Even the most optimistic fan had to expect a bit of a drop off from the offensive numbers of the 2011 squad, but the opposite has been true.

What’s also amazing is how the Cardinals have built this offense. Beltran is 35 years old, Furcal is 34 and first baseman Lance Berkman is 36. Granted, Berkman has been sidelined much of the year with a calf injury, but the Cardinals have resurrected these hitters’ careers the way former pitching coach Dave Duncan brought old pitchers back to life to throw for a few productive years.

Beltran, Berkman and Furcal all looked to be at the end of their careers right before they joined the Cardinals.

Berkman joined the team in 2011 after hitting .248 the year before with the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. Furcal was hitting .197 with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2011 before he joined the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Beltran is already more than halfway to his 2011 homerun total of 22 that he hit while playing for the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants.

What makes these hitters find a reserve tank of energy when they join the Cardinals? Might hitting coach Mark McGwire have something to do with it? In any case, each player has certainly enjoyed his time with the Cardinals, and the franchise has gotten much more than people expected out of these aging stars.

The Cardinals have excellent clubhouse chemistry right now under the leadership of rookie manager Mike Matheny. Just observe the homerun line that forms in the dugout after each homerun.

This team is having fun, and it is winning ballgames. That’s a recipe that could make for quite a ride throughout the rest of this season, especially since it was unexpected.

April 2^nd, 2012

Springfield, MO – The defending World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals returned to the state of Missouri for the first time since their seven game series win against the Texas Rangers.  But it wasn’t at Busch Stadium; Hammons Field in Springfield was the spot and fans came out in full force to show their support for the champs.

The crowd of 10,079, the third largest in Hammons Field history and biggest since 2006, were starved for offense early as both starting pitchers, Tyler Lyons for Springfield and Trevor Rosenthal who are scheduled to both be in the Springfield rotation, each threw four scoreless innings.  Lyons matched Rosenthal’s four strikeouts and allowed just one hit.  Rosenthal threw four perfect innings.

After a scoreless inning from Sam Freeman out of the Springfield bullpen, St. Louis plated two runs against reliever Eric Fornataro.  Vance Albitz led off with a single and moved to third on a single by Matt Carpenter.  With runners at second and third, Tony Cruz grounded out to second scoring Albitz and Erik Komatsu followed with an RBI sacrifice fly to give the “Big Birds” a 2-0 lead.

St. Louis added another run in the 7^th off of Keith Butler when Palm Beach shortstop Ronny Gil hit a long home run to right to make it 3-0.

Springfield, who had just two hits both off of Kyle McClellan in the 5^th, got lead-off batter Kolten Wong on base thanks to a walk.  He would come around and score on an RBI triple by top prospect Oscar Taveras.  An RBI ground out by Xavier Scruggs put Springfield within just a run.

The 2^nd best prospect in the organization, Carlos Martinez who will begin the season in Palm Beach, pitched four sharp innings for St. Louis to earn the save.

Springfield received scoreless frames from Nick Greenwood and Jorge Rondon out of the bullpen.

As for the Cardinals Superstars, David Freese and Matt Holliday each played four innings.  Holliday was 0-for-1 with a walk and Freese was 0-for-2, but reached on an error.

Springfield will open the 2012 regular season schedule Thursday, April 5^th, as they take on the Frisco RoughRiders at Hammons Field.  5,000 fans will receive a Great Southern 2012 Magnet Schedule/Picture Frames. It’ll be the first of nine “Buck a Brat” $1 Johnson Bratwurst nights and everyone will enjoy a post-game Fireworks Spectacular thanks to AM Pyrotechnics.  Game time on Thursday is 7:08pm and tickets are available by visiting the Hammons Field Ticket Office, online atspringfieldcardinals.com or by calling (417) 863-2143.

Escape to Cardinals Baseball!

The St. Louis Cardinals received good…bad…news regarding the status of Chris Carpenter today. The staff ace is experiencing nerve irritation affecting his neck and throwing arm that has shut him down indefinitely, though as of now he will be treated with rest and strengthening exercises and surgery is not being discussed.

It could be worse. The worst-case scenario would be losing Carpenter for the entire season and having the continuance of his career be in jeopardy. That is not the case; however the Cards still have no timetable for his return and have to proceed as though they have no idea when he’s coming back.

While the situation is not ideal, it places the Cardinals in a familiar position: dealing with losing their best pitcher before the season even gets underway. In one sense, it is kind of amusingly ironic. In another, it toes the line of cruel and unusual punishment for the Cards and their fans. The team is the defending World Series champion, but could they possibly have a smooth start to that title defense? Of course not.

This has been coming for a while, and recently I lamented the possibility of the Cardinals going back to Kyle McClellan as an interim starter while Carpenter recovers. Thankfully, that option is off the table. Instead, Lance Lynn has been given the green light to assume the fifth spot in the rotation. I have mixed feelings about this move. On the one hand, Lynn only relieved for a short time in 2011 and has been a starter the rest of the time. “Converting back” to the starter mentality and routine should not be near as taxing on him as it was on McClellan through the first half of last year. Consequently, if Carpenter is able to come back sometime mid-summer, Lynn may be able to seamlessly transition back to the bullpen and not drastically surpass his recent innings totals. But for as well as Lynn looked as a reliever with the Cards in 2011, he had mixed results in his two starts at the major league level and was not able to complete six innings either outing. Yes, that is a really small sample size. But it just goes to show that Lynn is still an unproven rookie, and with that comes a whole new set of questions. What if he struggles initially, or even perpetually? What if Carpenter returns and Lynn can’t transition back to the bullpen effectively?

And what if the bullpen suffers without Lynn? Perhaps the Cards can get back the production from McClellan they got in 2010 when he was, by many measures, the best reliever on the team. That would certainly help. But the beginning of 2011 was a prime example of what can happen to a team when their bullpen falters, and the run at the end of the year began in large part because of dominant bullpen work from Lynn, Jason Motte, Fernando Salas, and the late additions of Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski. Dotel is gone, of course, so McClellan presumably replaces him. Who replaces Lynn?

Still, it is really hard to think the sky is falling today after we saw what happened last year in the absence of Adam Wainwright. It is relatively safe to assume that, no matter what, the Cardinals will make whatever moves are necessary to keep this team in contention for the entire season. It just would have been really sweet to see a healthy Wainwright and a healthy Carpenter at the top of the rotation for the entire season. And who knows; maybe Carpenter comes back at 100% in a few months and takes some of the heat off of Wainwright so he doesn’t get overexposed being just one year removed from Tommy John surgery.

But that is just wishful thinking. The reality is, the Cards are in a tough spot for the start of the 2012 season. Let’s hope this team is as good at battling adversity as the 2011 team was.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter at @birdbrained.

Yadier Molina and the St. Louis Cardinals announced on Thursday that they’d reached an agreement to extend the two-time World Series Champion, three-time All Star, and winner of four consecutive (and counting) National League Gold Glove awards.  Oh, and it’s the second-richest contract for a catcher (Mauer, MIN) in baseball history.  Or any history for that matter, I suppose.  Molina will be the backstop for St. Louis from 2013-2017, and the deal includes a mutual option for 2018, when Molina will turn 36, which could make the deal worth $88MM in total guaranteed money over 6 years.

But, was it a good signing?

Like most signings, we may not know the answer to that until 2016 or 2017.  I can tell you this much, though: the list of people who like this deal include John Mozeliak & Bill DeWitt.  Obviously, Yadi Molina likes it, and I imagine Brian McCann and Buster Posey were wearing pretty big smiles when they heard the news too.  For what it’s worth, you can add me to the list–I like this deal, and I like it a lot.  (Side note: I’m betting the days of Lincecum, Cain & Posey playing together in San Fransisco are numbered.)

Photo Courtesy: Erika Lynn

$15MM is a lot of money for a catcher, there’s no denying it.  The difficult thing about quantifying that, as Mozeliak pointed out, is that this is not an offense-driven dollar figure.  For all the talk about intangibles, leadership, and clubhouse presence that a guy like Yadi brings to the team, there’s no column on his baseball-reference page for those type of things.  Sure, you can count his pickoffs, or compare his caught stealing rate to other catchers his age, but there are no metrics for the way catchers handle a pitching staff, or in Yadi’s case, handing down knowledge collected through Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan, Chris Carpenter and others to young pitchers like Shelby Miller, and Carlos Martinez.

It’s difficult to compare apples like Johnny Bench to Oranges like Yadi Molina.  But know this: His compensation was not based on his offensive production.  Though it was a factor, his defense was the primary driving force behind the numbers in this contract, and anyone who ignores, overlooks, or tries to downplay that is making a mistake.

When you ask yourself what the Cardinals’ realisitic, legitimate alternative options were, had they not locked Yadi up long-term, you don’t find much to feel good about.  You can talk about Tony Cruz & Bryan Anderson all you want, but they’re both a far cry from bringing what Molina can to the table.  It was imperative that the Cardinals spend money for a catcher, and in my opinion, far better to spend what they did and get what they got, than the alternatives the organization faced.  To put so much on the shoulders of younger guys in the organization, or pay McCann or Ianetta free agency money primarily for offensive-production, when that’s clearly not a deficiency on this team, would’ve been mistakes in my mind.

Not to mention, whose shirsey are you going sell if you lose Pujols AND Molina to free agency within a year of each other?  There’s a lot of revenue generated there, folks, don’t kid yourselves.

The organization has not stashed the supposed “truckloads of money that they were going to pay Pujols”.  Berkman, Beltran and Molina will attest to that.  What’s more, I believe the Cardinals have been smart with these deals, and not gone long-term with guys that they shouldn’t have.  Remember, Beltran (and his new agent, Dan Lozano) originally sought a three-year deal.  Consider that now it’s only Holliday & Molina that are signed through 2017, and that Garcia just signed a deal last year.  Add to that the facts that Waino has two years to go, as does Carpenter, and that Lohse & Westbrook’s salary is coming off the books this year, and it puts the organization in pretty good shape, financially.  Also, they’re fresh off a World Series Championship, which is good for the bottom line to say the least, and that many of the other pieces to the puzzle are arbitration eligible, with a little ways to go before entering free agency, and the financial picture improves even further.

Jason Motte is scheduled to become a free agent in 2015, a year before Mitchell Boggs and David Freese, and those are the young guys who are closest to free agency.  Mo has said said, as recently as last season, that he’s not seen the farm system this healthy since he joined the organization…which was in 1995.  1995.  This Yadi deal is just one piece to a very good-looking puzzle for the long-term success of this Cardinals franchise, and I can’t wait to see where it goes from here!

When the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals begin defense of the title they won in one of the most exciting postseasons in recent memory, it might be easy to focus on who isn’t around anymore. They’ve had to replace the winningest manager in franchise history, Tony La Russa, as well as one of the greatest players to ever wear a Cardinals uniform, Albert Pujols.

If you were searching for the ideal replacement for Albert Pujols, then move along, because you won’t find it. There is only one Pujols, and he’s gone.  Albert Pujols had manned this position full time for the past eight seasons. But he is now with the Los Angeles Angels, and Lance Berkman moves from the outfield to a spot where, at 36, he’s better suited for. Berkman earned NL comeback player of the year honors by hitting .301 with 31 homers and 94 RBI last season. When he needs a day off, Carlos Beltran and even Yadier Molina will be there to help.

Brian LaHair, Cubs. The long-time Minor Leaguer was last up in the bigs back in ’08 with the Mariners. In his latest go-round, the 28-year-old has made an impression on manager Mike Quade, batting a blistering .500 with a .950 slugging percentage. While too old to be considered a prospect, LaHair launched 38 homers and drove in 109 for Triple-A Iowa this season and could provide some decent power returns over the final few weeks of the season.

Joey Votto, Reds. Votto is still one of the best players in the National League, and obviously the best first baseman in the league. His 14.2 fWAR over the last two years leads all NL first basemen, and the reigning 2010 MVP isn’t just one of the best in the NL, but in all of baseball. Votto will be heading to free agency after 2013, but he’ll be 30 at that point in time, and probably won’t get as crazy of a deal as Fielder and Pujols. But he should still get a solid contract, if not from the Reds, then from another team that needs a first baseman.

Carlos Lee, Astros. Lee’s behemoth contract comes to an end after this season, but after a pair of down years, Lee had a really good campaign in 2011, though one that wasn’t worth his eight figure salary. He hit .275/.342/.446, and walked nearly as much as he struck out. He won’t be getting $18.5 million in 2013 from another team, but he’s a guy that could actually hang on for a few more years like Jim Thome has, as a DH that occasionally plays first base.

Mat Gamel, Brewers. Milwaukee still doesn’t have a replacement for Prince Fielder at first, and it’s generally believed that Gamel will be taking over there this season. He’s no longer a young, studly prospect at 26 years-old, and in his only extended tour in the majors in 2009, he OPSed .760 in 148 plate appearances. He’s spent parts of the last four seasons at AAA Nashville, and has hit well there, tallying a .310/.372/.540 line there last year with 28 homers. Milwaukee needs to find out what they’ve got with him, and 2012 would be the best opportunity for him and the Brewers to see what they have here.

Garrett Jones, Pirates. Jones’s splits last year were startling: he had a .460 OPS against lefties, and an .808 OPS against righties. If Pittsburgh plans on starting him, they’ll need a platoon partner. One option would be former top third base prospect Pedro Alvarez….who has the same deficiency against lefties that Jones has. It could be a rough year for the Pirates if they roll with Jones as their starter.

Lance Berkman, Cardinals. Berkman will be taking over at first base for the Cardinals this season following the departure of Albert Pujols after a fantastic 2011 season that saw him OPS .959, hit 31 homers (his highest total since 2007), and accrue 5.0 fWAR. His defensive inadequacies should be masked at first base, and if his health holds up, Berkman could be a great replacement for Pujols (though not nearly as good overall as the former MVP). But remember, injuries have been an issue for Berkman lately, missing 66 games in 2009 and 2010.

By the time 2012 is said and done here is how I see things shaking out amongst the NL Central second basemen

1. Joey Votto
2. Lance Berkman
3. Carlos Lee
4. Garrett Jones
5. Bryan LaHair
6. Mat Gamel

Now that St. Louis Cardinals fans have opened their 2011 World Series championship Christmas gifts and the calendar has turned to 2012, it’s time to start anticipating the beginning of a new season.

The Cardinals have already made most of their offseason moves by keeping Rafeal Furcal and Skip Schumaker, signing Carlos Beltran and not signing Albert Pujols. With the lineup and rotation pretty much set, now Cardinals fans can start asking the annual questions of how good the team will be during the upcoming season.

The 2012 Cardinals will look a lot better on paper than a lot of defending World Series champion teams. Most of those teams have geared up for a championship run for several years and have an aging nucleus by the time they win the World Series. Even the 2006 Cardinals were in a position where they couldn’t bring back many pieces of that team in 2007.

That’s not the case in 2012. Sure, the team lost the best baseball player and best manager of this generation, but, the rest of the team remains pretty well intact, especially considering Adam Wainwright will be back to lead the rotation after missing the entire 2011 season because of injury.

Not many defending championship teams are able to add a Cy Young Award winner to their staff the following year without having to dish out a major contract or trade away the entire minor league system.

Those types of moves often impair a franchise for several years after it goes for broke to win a championship. Even the New York Yankees struggled to maintain a minor league system that continually fed the big club with solid, young talent after their dynasty of the late 1990s.

So, the Cardinals look to be in a position where they will once again strongly contend for a playoff spot in 2012. The major question marks will be and whether or not the team will be able to score enough runs.

The offense carried the 2011 Cardinals for much of the season, but more responsibility immediately dropped on the pitching staff once Pujols left for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The pitchers are going to have to be excellent this year for the Cardinals to win a lot of games.

Had Pujols and manager Tony La Russa stayed, the Cardinals would’ve likely been huge favorites in the National League Central Division and maybe the entire National League, but the few changes they made are significant and leave the door open for doubt to creep inside.

The Cardinals spent most of the money they didn’t pay Pujols on Furcal, Schumaker and Beltran. Unfortunately, those three players combined might not generate the same offensive production Pujols did by himself. That means the Cardinals’ starting pitching will have to be dominant at times, the defense will have to be vastly improved and the team will have to be more creative in baserunning situations.

The 2011 Cardinals were built from the batter’s box, but the 2012 Cardinals will likely have to win with pitching and defense.

2011 Greatness In Baseball Yearly Award Winners Named
Freese Takes Two of World Series Champion Cardinals’ Four GIBBYs

NEW YORK & SECAUCUS, December 16, 2011 – The winners of the 2011 Greatness in Baseball Yearly (GIBBY) Awards were unveiled tonight on MLB Network and MLB.com during a show hosted by MLB Network’s Greg Amsinger and Mitch Williams. David Freese of the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals was the only multiple award winner, as he earned Postseason MVP and top Postseason Moment for his dramatic game-tying, ninth-inning triple in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series.

In addition to the Cardinals, four other Clubs claimed multiple GIBBY winners, including the Arizona Diamondbacks (Kirk Gibson, Manager of the Year; Ian Kennedy, Breakout Player of the Year); Detroit Tigers (Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher of the Year; Jose Valverde, Closer of the Year); New York Yankees (David Robertson, Setup Man of the Year; Robinson Cano, Wow Factor of the Year; Derek Jeter, Performance of the Year); and Tampa Bay Rays (Dan Johnson, Moment of the Year; Evan Longoria, Walk-Off of the Year).

This year’s winners of the GIBBY Awards – the ultimate trophies honoring the best players and must-see moments from the 2011 Major League Baseball season – were determined through a comprehensive six-week voting process (Oct. 29-Dec. 4) that included national and local media members, Major League Club front office personnel, former Major League players and online fan balloting at MLB.com. Over the past four seasons, fans have cast more than 40 million online votes for the 19 categories, none of which were restricted to individual League affiliation. A complete list of 2011 winners and highlights can be found at MLB.com/GIBBYs.

QUOTES FROM THE 2011 GIBBY AWARDS SHOW
GIBSON – “I’d like to thank all the fans and everybody who voted for me for Manager of the Year. It’s an exceptional honor for me, being a rookie manager. … It’s exemplary of why we all get up and play the game hard with dedication, and do it the right way every day.”

KENNEDY – “I’d like to thank everyone who voted for me for this award. It’s an honor. Every one of those guys is deserving and had great years. I’d like to thank my teammates for putting me in this position to win this award.”

JOHN MOZELIAK (Executive of the Year) – “I’d like to thank everyone who voted for me on this award. It’s a great honor, and I take a lot of pride in being recognized in this. … There are so many great people who work in our front office who deserve credit for this award. I’m honored and humbled by this. I also want to recognize our ownership that gives us so much support throughout the year.”

Ben Revere (Play of the Year) – “I just want to say thank you to the fans who voted for me, to the Minnesota Twins faithful, and to MLB.com and MLB Network for allowing me to accept this honor.”

ROBERTSON – “This is a huge honor. This is one of those things I didn’t expect to win.”

The Royals have all of their young position players in place. You can see the offensive potential in this young line-up. As of this writing several Royals have multi-game hitting streaks. Several players are approaching 20 home runs. That is a low number. Go look how many times in recent seasons a Royals hitter has approached it. I’m not worried about the Royals scoring runs this season, or in the future. In fact they are second in the AL Central in runs scored.

What is a concern is the starting pitching. Not only has the pitching on the Royals lived up to their expectation of getting knocked around. The prized prospects in the minors have lost a lot of their luster this season. I discussed this back in June. Starting pitching is rightfully expensive weather you give up prospects like the Cleveland Indians, or acquire through free agency. I was glad to see Dayton Moore discuss this with Bob Dutton in The Kansas City Star. While David Glass has shown some willingness to open the wallet since the arrival of Moore, I don’t see him laying out $100 Million for CJ Wilson.

Obviously the least expensive way to acquire starting pitching is to develop it through your minor league system. Last years San Francisco Giants won the World Series by doing this. But that got me thinking. That’s just one season. Let’s look at past World Series Champions and see how their pitching staffs were assembled. I’m only going to list the top five starters for World Series Champions starting with the 2000 Yankees. I will separate these starting pitchers into three categories: developed (draft + amateur free agent signings), traded, or free agency. Andy Petite presented an interesting situation. He was drafted by the Yankee’s but signed an extension before free agency. These situations will be treated as drafted because they never hit the open market, thus theoretically being signed below market value. Plus, the Royals have shown a willingness to do this in the past with starting pitchers. Like Zack Greinke. Let’s take a look.

2000 New York Yankees:
1. Andy Petite, developed, salary $7,000,000
2. Roger Clemens, trade (99), salary $6,350,000
3. Orlando Hernandez, developed, salary $1,950,000
4. David Cone, free agent (99), salary $12,000,000
5. Denny Neagle, trade (7/00), salary $4,750,000

Totals: 2 were developed, 2 through trades, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $32,050,000

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks :
1. Curt Schilling, trade (7/00), salary $6,500,000
2. Randy Johnson, free agent (98), salary $13,350,000
3. Brian Anderson, drafted (ED 97), salary $4,125,000
4. Robert Ellis, free agent, salary NA
5. Miguel Bautista, free agent, salary $400,000

Totals: 3 free agents, 1 through trade, 1 developed. Total Salary: $24,375,000*

2002 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
1. Ramon Ortiz, developed, salary $575,000
2. Jarrod Washburn, developed, salary $350,000
3. Kevin Appier, trade, salary $9,500,000
4. Aaron Sele, free agent, salary $7,166,667
5. John Lackey, developed, salary $350,000 (estimated)

Totals: 3 developed, 1 through trade, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $17,941,667

2003 Florida Marlins
1. Carl Pavano, trade (7/02), salary $1,500,000
2. Brad Penny, trade (7/99), salary $1,875,000
3. Mark Redman, trade (1/03), salary $2,150,000
4. Dontrelle Willis, developed, salary, $234,426
5. Josh Beckett, developed, salary, $1,725,000

Totals: 3 through trade, 2 developed. Total Salary: $7,484,426

2004 Boston Red Sox
1. Curt Schilling, trade, salary $12,000,000
2. Pedro Martinez, trade but signed a big money extension, salary $17,500,000
3. Tim Wakefield, free agent, salary $4,350,000
4. Derek Lowe, trade, salary $4,500,000
5. Bronson Arroyo, developed, salary $332,500

Totals: 3 through trade, 1 developed, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $38,682,500

2005 Chicago White Sox
1. Mark Buerhrle, developed, salary $6,000,000
2. Freddy Garcia, trade, salary $8,000,000
3. John Garland, developed, salary $3,400,000
4. Jose Contreras, trade, salary $8,500,000
5. Orlando Hernandez, free agent, salary $3,500,000

Totals: 2 through trade, 2 developed 1 free agent. Total Salary: $29,400,000

2006 St Louis Cardinals
1. Chris Carpenter, free agent, salary $5,000,000
2. Jason Marquis, trade, salary $5,150,000
3. Jeff Suppan, free agent, salary $4,000,000
4. Mark Mulder, trade, salary $7,750,000
5. Anthony Reyes, developed, $392,400
6. Jeff Weaver, trade (7/06), $8,325,000

Totals: 3 through trade, 2 free agents, 1 developed. Total Salary: $30,617,400

2007 Boston Red Sox
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, free agent*, salary $6,333,333 *=His contract was purchased from the Sebu Lions as the highest bidder. For the purpose of this article we’ll call him a free agent signing because he went to the highest bidder.

2. Josh Becket, trade, salary $6,666,667
3. Tim Wakefield, free agent, salary $4,000,000
4. Curt Schilling, trade, salary $13,000,000
5. Julian Tavarez, free agent, salary $3,350,000
6. Jon Lester, developed, salary $384,000

Totals: 3 free agents, 2 through trade, 1 developed. Total Salary: $33,734,000

2008 Philadelphia Phillies
1. Cole Hamels, developed, salary $500,000
2. Jamie Moyer, trade, salary $6,000,000
3. Brent Myers, developed, salary $8,583,333
4. Kyle Kendrick, developed, salary $445,000
5. Adam Eaton, free agent, salary $7,208,333
6. Joe Blanton, trade (7/08), salary $3,700,000

Totals: 3 developed, 2 through trades, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $26,436,666

2009 New York Yankees
1. CC Sabathia, free agent, salary $15,285,714
2. AJ Burnnett, free agent, salary $16,500,000
3. Andy Pettitte, free agent, salary $5,500,000
4. Joba Chamberlain, developed, salary $435,575

Totals: 3 free agents, 1 developed. Total Salary: $37,721,289

2010 San Francisco Giants
1. Matt Cain, developed, salary $4,583,333
2. Tim Lincecum, developed, salary $9,000,000
3. Barry Zito, free agent, salary $18,500,000
4. Jonathan Sanchez, developed, salary $2,100,000
5. Madison Bumgarner, developed, salary $450,000
6.Todd Wellemeyer, free agent, salary $1,000,000

Totals: 4 developed, 2 free agents. Total Salary: $35,633,333

That’s a lot of information, but I hate to say this. It doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t know before looking at the numbers. If you put all of this into a spreadsheet, and take out Barry Zito’s contract, you can see the correlation between developing your own pitching as opposed to trading or buying it. There are 58 pitchers listed on the World Series Champions. 21 came from a teams farm system, 19 came from trades (most of the trades working out for the team who got the pitcher), and 18 free agents. Percentage wise there is no difference. World Series Champion staffs come from 1/3 farm system, 1/3 trades, 1/3 free agent signings.

What can we take from this as Royals fans? First the Red Sox and Yankee staff’s total salaries are equal to the entire Royals salary in 2011. The average salary is $28.5 Million and that does not take into account inflation from 2000 -2010, or inflation going forward. The Royals will have to spend more money to get pitching and retain their hitters.

Second, the 2010 Giants and 2002 Angels were the only team to have a staff with 3 or more system pitchers, and even then they were in the majors at least two years before the were effective. If the Royals were to have a pitcher like that they only have Danny Duffy, Nate Adcock, and maybe Felipe Paulino. Even if Montgomery comes up next year these pitchers are still a few years away.

It’s no secret that the Royals are going to try and develop as much pitching as possible. However, free agent signings and trades will be needed to get the required pieces. From looking at the numbers such a strategy has worked 4 out of the 11 years (02,03, 08, & 10). That’s 36%. Even if the Royals do everything right, and everything breaks right, this strategy only works 1/3 of the time. Landing a big time free agent would help this situation, but this is not the off-season to do it. But if that 36% works against the Royals note that buying your championship pitching staff only works 36% of the time too. Winning a World Series is hard. The Royals one World Series trophy did not come from their best team. Even if an organization does everything it’s supposed to do it still needs a lot of luck. I think it’s about time the Royals received a little luck.