Is it too early to start thinking about the trade deadline?  That used to be an easier question to answer.  The new playoff format implemented by the league last year complicates this issue somewhat.  Sure, maybe if you’re the Miami Marlins you’ve been thinking about the trade deadline since early May, but for other teams it’s not that simple.  This is the case for the Kansas City Royals.

Whether you like the new playoff format or not, it’s here to stay for at least the foreseeable future and complicates the General Manager’s job for at least half the teams in both leagues.  Currently the Royals sit three games under 500 and five and a half games out of first place.  Their record is 30-33.  Certainly not the end of the world, especially with close to a hundred games left in the season.

In the wild card standings, the Royals are six games back.  Three of the teams in front of them in the wild card race are in the Eastern division and one each in the West and Central.  Again, not necessarily the end of the world or the end of the season.  Compare this record with a team like the Astros who are currently twenty one games below 500 and the Royals chances at the playoffs seem absolutely brilliant by comparison.  But ohh my, what a difference a week makes.

Coming into the beginning of the week, the Royals had a six game winning streak; this brings their winning percentage up to .476 from an abysmal .418.  Add to this an eight game losing streak from the second place Cleveland Indians and all of a sudden you have a division race, not to mention that their latest victory was off of the central division leading Tigers.  The Royals took two from the Tigers to win that series, their only loss was to Max Scherzer.  Scherzer has lost how many games this year?  Oh right, zero.

Wednesday, the Tigers sent 2011 Cy Young and MVP winner Justin Verlander to the mound and he shut the Royals out for seven innings holding on to a two run lead.  But in the 9^th, Lorenzo Cain connected off of Jose Valverde for a two run homer that tied the game.  The Royals would go on to win the game and the series in the 10^th inning when Eric Hosmer singled in the final run.

It would seem that bullpen troubles aren’t unique to Kansas City.  Detroit’s pen currently has a record of 4-12 proving that they aren’t invincible.  The Royals have a 3-2 record against the Tigers with their only other loss to them coming back in April off of, whom else, Max Scherzer.  These two teams will play thirteen more times before the season is over and the Tigers can’t send Verlander and Scherzer to the mound for all one hundred and seventeen of those innings.

This was a huge series for the Royals.  Not only does it keep them within striking distance in the division, it provides a giant mental boost.  Winning the Tigers series sends the message that the Royals can beat the supposed best team in baseball, whereas a sweep by the Tigers would have put them far enough back in the standings that Dayton Moore would probably start getting his resume ready and his replacement would be trying to figure out how to sell off some of the key pieces of this team.

It isn’t exactly certain what a selling season for the Royals would even look like.  Would they trade off the pitching they just acquired at a cost of their own best prospects or would they get rid of their young talent that they have locked up during their most cost effective years?  Neither sound like good options and something tells me they didn’t keep their receipt for Wil Myers.

The Royals have ten games against division rivals this month.  If they can keep their winning streak going into July they will start to look like a buying team.  Shoring up the bullpen would go a long way towards making a playoff run but buying players this year may be problematic as well.  The once well stocked Royals farm system was thinned out quite a bit to get them where they are now (30-33).  However, if it works and the Royals make the playoffs, Dayton Moore will look like a genius.  If they don’t, well, at least they aren’t the Astros.

After the 2012 season, it’s easy to accept the Royals will always lose and nothing will change. It’s hard to be optimistic and defend a sports team who hasn’t been above .500 since 2003 and not in the playoffs since 1985.

So should I and other Royals fans be more optimistic? I think so. Look, if the Baltimore Orioles can make the playoffs, so can the Royals.

You could call the Orioles the Royals of the A.L. East. In 2011, the Orioles had a 69-93 record. The last time they won 70 games was 2006. The last time they went over .500 was 1997. This year, the Orioles went 93-69, winning the Wild Card play-in game against the Rangers before losing the ALDS against the Yankees.

The Orioles weren’t supposed to be this good. Their Pythagorean win-loss record was 82-80 and many figured the team would finish towards the bottom of the A.L. East.

The Yankees won the A.L. East, but only by two games over the Orioles. The Rays played well, but “only” won 90 games, missing the playoffs. The Jays were Royals-like at 73-89. The Red Sox finished 69-93 and showed Bobby Valentine the door.

So what made the Orioles so good? It had to be their top-shelf starting pitching. Well, not really. The starters had a 4.42 team ERA, ninth in the A.L. and 21st in the the Majors. Their “ace” pitcher, Wei-Yin Chen, had a 4.02 ERA, a 12-11 record, pitched 192.2 innings with a 2.70 SO/BB ratio.

The Royals starters had a 5.01 team ERA, 11th in the A.L. and 26th in the Majors. That’s not too far off from the Orioles. The Royals “ace” was Bruce Chen, with a 5.07 ERA, a 11-14 record, pitching 191.2 innings with 2.98 SO/BB ratio. If Luke Hochevar wasn’t Luke Hochevar and Jeremy Guthrie had a full season with the Royals, The Royals starting rotation could be better than the Orioles rotation.

How about the bullpen? The Orioles had a 3.00 team ERA, third in the A.L. and fifth in the Majors. Just behind them were the Royals with a 3.17 team ERA, fourth in the A.L. and sixth in the Majors. The Royals had 535 strikeouts, the most in the A.L., but the Orioles had a 1.21 WHIP, compared to the Royals 1.34 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen was a factor, but it wasn’t the main reason they made the playoffs.

How about the Orioles lineup? Center fielder Adam Jones led the team with a .287 average, 103 runs and 16 stolen bases. DH Chris Davis led with 33 home runs and 85 RBI. As a team, the Orioles had a .247 average, 677 RBI, 270 doubles, 214 home runs, scoring 712 runs while allowing 705 runs.

Meanwhile, DH Billy Butler led the team with a .313 average, 29 homers and 107 RBI. Alex Gordon led the team with 93 runs and Alcides Escobar stole a team high 35 bases. As a team, the Royals had a .265 average, 643 RBI, 295 doubles, 131 home runs, scoring 676 runs and allowing 746 runs.

The Royals had a better batting average and more doubles, but the Orioles had 83 more home runs and 34 more RBI. And the Royals gave up a lot more runs than they scored. Having a good team batting average and hitting doubles helps, but scoring more runs wins more games. The Orioles did a better job offensively than the Royals, but it wasn’t a big reason the Orioles played so well.

So what was it? The Orioles had something the Royals didn’t have much of: luck. There’s a stat called Pythagorean Luck, which is the difference between the actual win-loss record and the Pythagorean win-loss record. The Orioles were the best in the Majors with an 11 luck score and played way above expectations. The Royals were -2 and played slightly below expectations.

When the Orioles were in a close or extra inning game, they usually won. In one run games, the Orioles had a 29-9 record, the best in the Majors. The Royals were 27-26, which is at least above .500. The Orioles also had the best extra inning record in the Majors at 16-2. The Royals were 8-7, once again above .500. And the Orioles never lost a regular season game when they led after seven innings.

And love him or hate him, manager Buck Showalter did a good job managing the team. He’s obsessively detail oriented and after a while he usually wears out his welcome, but he’s a frontrunner for A.L. Manager of the Year.

Now the Orioles were far from perfect. The lack of an ace showed itself in the playoffs, even with the Yankees being offensively challenged. And a team can’t expect to win a majority of one run and extra inning games every year. And outside of pitcher Dylan Bundy and third baseman Manny Machado, the Orioles farm system is pretty shallow.

But the Orioles prove with timely performances, a average starting rotation and some luck, a team can win and make the playoffs, even in a strong A.L. East. There’s no excuses for the Kansas City Royals now. If the Baltimore Orioles can do it, the Royals can too.

With the Kansas City Royals missing another postseason, fans wonder when the team will make the playoffs, even with the expanded Wild Card. How about a playoff format where every team in the Majors is in a playoff tournament for a chance at the World Series? Think it sounds crazy? Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones doesn’t think so.

In a October 5 article in USA Today, the future Hall of Famer said, “Quite honestly, I think if we’re going to continue to let teams in year after year, we might as well just say, screw it; let’s have everybody in. Let’s play 162 games to seed yourselves and then we’ll let the Astros (55-107) have a shot at it and whoever else wants a shot at it, six or seven game winning streak and you’re the world champions.

“We’ll just have a 32-team, single-elimination March Madness tournament. That’s the way I think we ought to do it.”

Ok, Chipper isn’t being serious, but I think he’s overlooking the genius of a “October Madness” type baseball playoff. And someone needs to remind him there’s 30 teams in the Major Leagues, not 32.

With the Astros moving to the American League next year, making each league 15 teams, a 30 team playoff is possible.

Major League Baseball would eliminate the divisions and have a 15 team American and National League. The schedule would be balanced and have Interleague play. All the rounds to the World Series would be a single game elimination tournament, the brackets split between the American and National League. The bracket for each league would be seven first round games, four second round games, two third round games and one fourth round game, the winner of which would claim the league pennant. Then have a traditional seven game World Series.

The A.L. and N.L. team with the best record gets a first round bye and home field advantage through the tournament. The remaining 14 teams would be seeded in the tournament by their record, from 1-14, with the higher seed being the home team. I would seed the teams like this: 7-14, 6-13, 5-12, 4-11, 3-10, 2-9, 1-8, with the winner of the 7-14 game facing the top league bye team in the second round. This makes the teams more evenly matched and “easier” for the top league bye team to advance.

The logistics and travel would be difficult, but it’s possible. Have a day or two off between rounds and the tournament could be done in seven to ten days. Then play the World Series over nine days.

So what are the advantages of this type of playoff format? Well, every team is in the playoffs, which keeps fans and players interested through the season. If you’re Houston, your season isn’t over by Memorial Day. Heck, this even gives the Cubs a chance to make the World Series. Maybe.

What makes NCAA Basketball March Madness so exciting? It’s the Cinderella teams having a shot of knocking out the top seeded teams and playing deep into the tournament. A single game elimination tournament to get in the World Series gives the low revenue teams like the Royals a chance. Yes, a mediocre team could get hot and win four in a row, making it to the World Series. But they still have to win four out of seven games to be champions. And like most tournaments, the best teams are usually in the final rounds anyway.

Think about the story lines and drama of a single game elimination tournament with 30 teams. The pressure of teams deciding who starts their games. Where every move is scrutinized by the fans and media if the team loses, or wins. A one game playoff between the Cardinals and Cubs or Royals and Yankees to make it to the World Series. As a fan of those teams, that has to make you excited if you win and crushed if you lose.

I’m sure there’s some baseball purists out there who believe a single game elimination tournament might ruin the integrity of the game or some other nonsense. They might say, “Won’t it make the 162 game season meaningless?” Let’s be honest. If your team doesn’t win the World Series, isn’t the season technically meaningless anyway? If baseball can survive the Black Sox Scandal, Pete Rose betting on baseball, the designated hitter, interleague play and the expanded Wild Card, it will survive a tournament where every team is in the playoffs.

There is a danger some teams might aim for mediocrity and figure, “hey, we have as good a shot as anyone else to win the World Series, why invest in top players?” That sounds like something Royals owner David Glass might do. Major League Baseball could have a salary floor to force each team to spend X amount of dollars on team payroll so teams wouldn’t stock their roster with lousy, low cost players. Instead, they would have stock their roster with better quality players. Or in the case of recent Royals history, stock the team with lousy, high cost players.

Of course what I’m suggesting is unlikely to happen. No major sport or league has every team in their playoffs and it would be hard to have ownership, the players union and the Commissioner’s office to agree on a radical playoff format like this. But when your team misses the playoffs year after year and you see the team across the state in the playoffs again, the tongue in cheek thoughts of Chipper Jones start making a lot of sense.

The St. Louis Cardinals entered the final two series of the 2012 regular season with something to play for: the Second Wild Card, which would assure them a one game playoff—the winner of which goes on to play in the NLDS against the playoff team with the best record. But what if the game was still being played under last year’s rules? What would the Cardinals be playing for in these final six games?

A whole lot of nothing, that’s what.

The Atlanta Braves clinched a playoff spot on September 25. The reason it’s only a playoff spot and not the Wild Card is because the Washington Nationals have not yet closed out the National League East Championship. Regardless, without the Second Wild Card, both teams would be in the postseason already no matter how they finish in the regular season standings. Aside from some seeding still to be determined, the playoff brackets would be full and the Cardinals would be on the outside looking in. Ironically, the one thing the Cardinals could do this weekend is help the Braves keep the door open to winning the NL East by beating the Nationals. That’s actually true with or without the Second Wild Card, but this season the Cardinals need the wins. Otherwise they would be relegated to the role of spoiler at best. And after what transpired at the end of the 2011 regular season, what an interesting discussion that would spark.

Imagine the questions that would surround the team without the opportunity in front of them: Was Mike Matheny the right guy for the job? How much can injuries be blamed for the Cards’ shortcomings? Did they need to spend the money on Carlos Beltran? Are they regretting letting Albert Pujols get away? Do you think Tony La Russa and/or Dave Duncan would come back? Should other coaches on the staff be let go? What does John Mozeliak need to do in the offseason to right the ship? When a champion comes back and falls woefully short the next year, these are the types of things people talk about. Some of those questions may get asked of the Cards in the offseason anyway. But the perspective and, consequently, the answers are so different between a playoff year and a non-playoff year.

Even the roster can be drastically affected. Perhaps the Cardinals would have shut down ailing players like Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday for the season by now. Perhaps Chris Carpenter would not have come back at all, or the Cards would have taken a page from the Stephen Strasburg files and backed Adam Wainwright off in the interest of the long-term. After all, what would be the rationale for pushing these guys after elimination, knowing they are under contract for 2013? There would be none. And we’d probably be seeing even more players from the Cards’ system up with the big club.

Last year, one of the rallying cries was “11 in ‘11,” and the Cardinals did indeed win their 11th World Championship in 2011. It also took 11 wins to get there: three Division Series wins, four National League Championship Series wins, and four World Series wins. Naturally, the fan base turned their attention to longing for “12 in ‘12” before the confetti had even been swept up from the parade through downtown St. Louis last October. The funny thing is, without the need to win a 12th postseason game created by the Second Wild Card, the Cardinals would have no shot to fulfill that longing this season. And that would really trigger some what ifs.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

Love it or hate it, Major League Baseball’s addition of the second Wild Card in each league in an attempt to create more opportunity as well as more likelihood that multiple playoff races would exist every season seems to have worked. And without it, the St. Louis Cardinals would have very little to play for right now.

The Cincinnati Reds have an 11 game lead in the NL Central, and their Magic Number (combination of Reds wins and Cardinals losses) to clinch the division title is seven. They could very well have things wrapped up by this time next week. It would take a run of biblical proportions—bad on the Reds’ side; good on the Cards’ side—for the Redbirds to win the NL Central this year. A cakewalk compared to the 2011 run. It ain’t happening.

And without the extra playoff spot, the same might be said about the Wild Card. The Cardinals trail the Atlanta Braves by six in the loss column; not an insurmountable number, but a damn hard one to overcome with only 17 games to play. With the way the Cards have played this season, it’s tough to imagine them even coming close to pulling something like that off—especially with no head-to-head matchups against the Braves remaining. In 2011, the Cards pulled off a three game sweep of Atlanta in September that really fueled the idea that the Bravos just might be catchable. No such situation exists this year.

No, things are quite different in 2012 for the Cardinals. Coincidentally, they do happen to be in the midst of a huge series with Wild Card implications. This time, the closest foe is the Los Angeles Dodgers. And instead of being the chasers, the Cardinals are the chased. But injuries, streaky offense, and a questionable bullpen have kept the Cards from creating much separation at all between them and the teams on their heels. Even after the win on Thursday, no one expected the Cards to go into Dodger Stadium and sweep. Winning three out of four would be great, and getting a split would be acceptable. With each team winning a game going into action Saturday, things seem to be on track. But if the Cards drop the next two, they will find themselves out of a playoff spot.

And that’s just the implications with the Dodgers. The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled mightily down the stretch, yet they’re still hanging around only three games back of the Cardinals. But the real threats seem to be the streaking Philadelphia Phillies (three games back) and Milwaukee Brewers (three and a half back). Neither the Cardinals nor the Dodgers can afford to drop many games, because the way those two teams are playing they’re liable to close quickly. Perhaps the Cardinals can take some solace in knowing their next nine games are against the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs. But they have plenty of business yet to take care of this weekend, with the thinnest of margins for error.

The system has created the possibility for this race to happen, and the Cardinals are currently leading the pack. But the teams chasing them certainly have no intention of letting up. It’s time the Redbirds put the pedal to the floor, before their wheels get yanked out from under them.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

The St. Louis Cardinals knew they had an old team heading into the 2012 season, and injuries or players wearing down in the course of the regular season were the team’s most likely downfall. The Cardinals have sustained injuries throughout the season, but now fatigue is doing its best to take down the team

Shortstop Rafeal Furcal tore a ligament in his right elbow Aug. 30 in Washington after dealing with back problems for weeks, outfielder Matt Holliday was sidelined much of the last week with a sore back and outfielder Carlos Beltran has flat out stopped hitting.

Beltran had been among the league leaders in homeruns and RBIs for much of the season, but he has hit .165 in the last month with two homeruns and eight RBIs. He is now fifth in the National League with 28 homeruns, 10 behind leader Ryan Braun, and eighth in RBIs with 86.

Maybe Beltran’s knee is causing him more serious issues than he lets on, but either way the Cardinals have lost a very important bat in the middle of their lineup. With Beltran’s slump, Holliday’s back problems and Berkman trying to come back from a stay on the disabled list, the Cardinals no longer have a scary heart of the order.

Unfortunately, these issues couldn’t have come at a worse time. The Cardinals were able to survive early season injuries to Berkman, Allen Craig, Skip Schumaker and Matt Carpenter without losing too much ground in the standings.

That likely won’t be possible now. The Cincinnati Reds are running away with the National League Central Division and could be headed to 100 wins. The Cardinals still hold the second wild-card spot, but the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates remain well within striking distance. Both teams were 1.5 games behind the Cardinals heading into play Saturday.

Manager Mike Matheny could be an easy target for a team that is wearing out near the end of the season, but there isn’t much he could do about these issues. He made sure starters got days off often at the beginning of the season, and he actually received criticism for not playing his best lineup often enough. The problem is the team just wasn’t built with much room for injuries and fatigue.

The Cardinals Opening Day lineup featured six players who are now 30 years or older. A team that old has to receive a fair amount of luck to make it through an entire season without dealing with many injury problems.

The Cardinals certainly haven’t received much luck in that department, but it also shouldn’t surprise everyone when the offense struggles. Sure, a team that leads the league in hitting shouldn’t go four straight games without scoring an earned run, as the Cardinals did Aug. 28-31 against the Pirates and Nationals, but it would also be unrealistic to think the offense would continue to churn out five or more runs a game nearly every night.

Despite the recent struggles, life is still pretty good for the Cardinals. They entered play Saturday in the second wild-card spot and 4.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top wild-card position.

Plus, the upcoming schedule is favorable. The Cardinals have just four of their next 18 games against teams with a winning record, although all but five of those games are on the road. Still, this upcoming stretch might give the Cardinals a chance to get well for a final push toward the playoffs. They are going to need it.

The St. Louis Cardinals have just come off a road trip, a key one, at 4-6. They still have the second Wild Card spot, thanks to the Pirates and Dodgers having some rough series of their own (up by 1/2 a game on LA and 1.5 on Pittsburgh, as of 10 AM Mon. 9/3), but it’s safe to say that the Cards probably didn’t get the job done.

Carlos Beltran slides in an attempt to field a ball hit by Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond. The play would result in a 2-run RBI single. (Source: AP)

After taking 3 of 4 from Cincinnati, the Cardinals went 2-5 in their last seven games. In a four-game stretch on the road trip, the Cardinals were outscored 32-1 by their opponent. Thankfully the Cardinals didn’t lose much ground in the Wild Card chase, but the team definitely could have used a little more breathing room heading into September.

The expanded rosters may just be the kick that the Cardinals need to push on to the playoffs. Reports are flying that top prospect Shelby Miller will be called up, and Chris Carpenter has begun throwing again and feels good.

In their remaining schedule, St. Louis faces just three teams with winning records: the Dodgers (Sept 14-16 in LA), Nationals (Sept 28-30) and Reds (Oct 1-3).

The narrative seems now to have pushed from a bad bullpen and streaky offense to bad pitching, a severely-slumping offense, and injuries with bad timing. Rafael Furcal may be out for 4-6 weeks or the rest of the season, no matter how long that happens to be. Whoever replaces him will be a downgrade, and just another hole that the Cards can’t fill.

Only time will tell what happens now, whether the Cardinals right the ship and stay in the playoff hunt or play themselves out of it. There aren’t any signs pointing in either direction at the moment, but it shouldn’t take long to find out what the rest of the season has in store for our beloved Redbirds. Where’s the Rally Squirrel when you need him?

(Editor’s note: All stats used in this piece are as of Monday, 8/27)

This past offseason, Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig expanded the playoff system. Two wild card berths were added, one to each league. A single elimination game would be played to determine the Wild Card winner. The current standings are like this:

Atlanta 73-55 (home field advantage for playoff)

San Francisco 71-57* (lead NL West by 1 game over LA Dodgers)

St. Louis 70-57

LA Dodgers 69-59* (1.5 back of STL, 1 game back of San Francisco in NL West)

Pittsburgh 68-59 (2 back of STL)

Arizona 64-64 (6.5 back of STL)

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It’s safe to say that Arizona is likely out of playoff contention, barring anything dramatic and unusual. The Wild Card will be a five-team race, and an exciting one at that. We’ll begin the preview with our own St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals took 2 of 3 from Cincinnati this past weekend, and gained a game in the NL Central. Still, the Reds hold a 6 game lead in the Central and should be able to maintain that lead through the rest of the regular season. If St. Louis can maintain their offensive production, they should have an advantage at maintaining a spot for Game 163. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals’ rotation will play out, with Joe Kelly pitching in Lance Lynn‘s rotation spot for the time being. September’s expanded rosters may help the Cardinals in their quest.

The Cards have the toughest remaining schedule of any Wild Card contender. They have five series against teams with records above the .500 mark, three of which are against division leading teams (two against Washington, one against Cincinnati).

Cardinals fans will likely remain nervous from now until playoff time, and have good reason to be that way. Everything will have to be clicking for the Redbirds. They cannot afford to give many games away. It can be done, but they have a tough hill to climb to get there.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at PIT (Aug 28 & 29) at LA (Sept 13-16)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers, in pursuit of the playoffs, may have just become the biggest threat to the Redbirds” Wild Card hopes.

A nine-player trade took place between the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox on Saturday. Boston sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto to LA, while the Sox received James Loney and four prospects. For the Red Sox, the trade was a salary dump and concession for the 2012 season. For LA, the trade showed that the Dodgers are serious about the playoffs, and the near future, under their new ownership. The trade could turn out to be much like the Cardinals trading Colby Rasmus to Toronto last season, and we all know how that turned out for St. Louis.

The Cardinals, Nationals and Reds are the only non-division opponents that the Dodgers face in the rest of the regular season. Washington and Cincinnati have the upper hand in their respective divisions (4 1/2 and 6 games respectively). Of the Wild Card contenders, Los Angeles may be the toughest opposition St. Louis has for the next month and a half. The Dodgers’ dangerous pitching and newly-revamped offense, combined with the easy schedule, should strike fear in their opponents and give LA an edge in the race.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at SF (Sept 7-9), vs STL (Sept 13-16), vs SF (Oct 1-3)

San Francisco Giants

Tim Lincecum has been a huge disappointment in the otherwise stellar season so far for San Fran. The PED-suspension of Melky Cabrera will certainly hurt the Giants’ chances at an NL West title. Despite these events, the Giants have been able to hold a slight division lead on the Dodgers. The only non-division opponents remaining on the schedule for the Giants are the Astros and Cubs. The NL West is pretty much a two-team race between the Dodgers and Giants. The advantage, at least on paper, goes to LA because of the trade boost. The battle for the West (and subsequent Wild Card spot) should go down to the final days of the regular season, but don’t be surprised if LA runs away to a division title before then.

Remaining games vs WC teams: vs LAD (Sept 7-9), at LAD (Oct 1-3)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Other than St. Louis, the Pirates have just three series left with teams that have winning records (two with Cincinnati, one with Atlanta – one Reds series and the Braves series at home). The Pirates are much better at home than on the road (38-25/30-34). Pittsburgh’s contention will depend on their pitching, which has been a major plus for them in 2012. Led by James McDonald and AJ Burnett, the Bucs’ rotation has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Barring a late season collapse or injuries, Pittsburgh should remain in the three-team race for Wild Card spot number two.

Remaining games vs WC teams: vs STL (Aug 28 & 29), vs ATL (Oct 1-3)

Atlanta Braves (current leader of first Wild Card spot, 2.5 games ahead of Cardinals for position)

The Braves have a big strength of schedule in the remainder of the regular season.  Thanks to a weak NL East, Atlanta faces only two opponents with winning records, Washington and Pittsburgh. It would take a Braves slump and Cardinals surge for St. Louis to take the number one spot and home field for Game 163. It happened in 2011, but given the schedule and sure-thing Braves pitching staff, don’t expect history to repeat itself. Atlanta should be hosting Game 163 in October. The only question they should have is who they will be facing on that day.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at PIT (Oct 1-3)

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The 2012 Wild Card race will be exciting to watch. It won’t quite have the excitement of the 2011 Wild Card, but the first year with the new system won’t disappoint. Expect some good baseball in the season’s last month and a half!

The six-hour, 19-inning marathon that took place on Sunday was just another kink in the chain that is the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals’ season. The Cardinals’ heart of the order, the one so dominant when they are all hitting well, was a combined 2 for 22.Matt Holliday was 0 for 7, Carlos Beltran 2 for 7 and David Freese 0 for 8.   A game that saw Jaime Garcia dominate in his return from an arm injury, looking like the Garcia of 2010, was marred by poor offense and some strange decision-making.

St. Louis had chance after chance to end the game with a W. The biggest opportunity came in the 17th. Skip Schumaker‘s single to center, the one that Andrew McCutchen bobbled, turned out to be the deciding moment of the game. Had Schumaker seen McCutchen fumble the ball and advanced to 2nd as Cutch threw to 3rd, Jon Jay”s base hit likely would’ve been the game-winning hit.

But, instead of a wild and entertaining 17-inning win, Cardinal fans find themselves talking about a heartbreaking 19-inning loss. Instead of being tied for the second Wild Card spot, St. Louis remains two games back of Pittsburgh.

Manager Mike Matheny is right when he said earlier this week that the team is struggling to get the one timely hit that can get the Cardinals a victory. The Cardinals’ offense may be the best in the league statistically, but it also one of the streakiest in baseball. Take the 8-2 win over San Francisco on August 6th, for example. Two days later, the Cardinals were embarrassed by the Giants in a 15-0 loss.

The Cards have had a string of rough losses as of late. The blown save by closer Jason Motte on Thursday and struggling offense on Friday led to two very frustrating one-run losses. St. Louis is 13-21 in one-run games in 2012. By comparison, Cincinnati is 20-17, while Pittsburgh is 25-20. With Sunday’s extra inning loss, the Cardinals’ record in such games fell to 3-9. The Pirates are now 4-0 in extras, while the Reds are 4-5.

Starting with tonight’s game against the Astros, the Redbirds will play 16 straight games before their next off day. Ten of them will be on the road – against the division-leading Reds, Pirates, and NL East-leading Nationals respectively. This stretch – particularly the games on the road – will likely determine whether the team will have what it takes to make the playoffs, or roll over and be watching from home once the regular season ends.

In order for the Cards to prove themselves, they must get everything clicking at once. That means that the heart of the order must get out of their respective slumps, the bullpen must right the ship, the offense must be consistent, and Motte needs to return to his old self. In addition, the team must win more one-run ballgames and win more in extras. It might be too much to ask at this point in the season. The Cards were able to find their way late last year, however, and have to do that if they want to play baseball in October.

Last year, St. Louis pulled off an improbable feat. The circumstances in 2012 are not near what they were a season ago, but some of that magic needs to rub off on this team. It’s not necessarily time to panic just yet, but time is running out. The good news is, the Cards have all the tools. All we can do now is just watch and wait.

The St. Louis Cardinals have spent seemingly endless weeks playing inconsistent baseball that keeps the team from moving out of its third-place slot in the National League Central Division. The next two weeks will likely decide whether or not that is where they finish the season.

Following their weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates and a day off Monday, the Cardinals embark on a 13-game stretch against four teams, three of which have winning records.

The Cardinals will get a three-game home series against the Houston Astros as an opportunity to build some collateral before they head out on a three-city road trip to play the Cincinnati Reds, Pirates and Washington Nationals.

The Reds and Pirates are the Cardinals two competitors for the NL Central this season, and the Reds might have the division title already locked up. They led the Pirates by 7.5 games and the Cardinals by 8.5 heading into play Sunday.

That means the Pirates and Cardinals are likely left to battle for the second wild-card spot behind the Atlanta Braves. The Pirates held a one-game lead over the Cardinals heading into play Sunday.

The Cardinals have a relatively easy September schedule. After the series in Washington, the Cardinals play just two series against teams with a winning record. They head to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers for four games Sept. 13-16 and finish the season with a homestand against the Nationals and Reds.

All of that means the Cardinals could finish the season strong, but the next two weeks will likely determine whether or not they are within shouting distance for those wins against bad teams to matter.

The Cardinals have struggled against good teams this season. They had a 25-26 against teams currently with a winning record heading into play Sunday. They will have to play at least .500 against the Reds, Pirates and Nationals in the next two weeks to remain in strong wild-card contention, and they will have to do a lot better if they still want a shot at the NL Central title.

Unfortunately, this team currently doesn’t show any signs that it will go on a sustained winning streak anytime soon. The Cardinals can play wonderful baseball for two nights, as they did Tuesday and Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but then they look like a team that doesn’t know how to win the next two nights, losing 2-1 to the Diamondbacks and Pirates.

That inconsistency is going to have to stop at some point. Even if the Pirates fade in September, the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are both good teams and could easily take the second wild-card spot.

Overall, the Cardinals starting pitching has been superb. They now have four pitchers with more than 11 wins, including Adam Wainwright with 11, Lance Lynn with 13, and Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook with 12.

But, as has been the case the entire season, the bullpen to be better and the offense has to be more consistent. Jason Motte was the latest to implode. He has been a reliable closer this year, but he single-handedly gave away Thursday’s game against the Diamondbacks by allowing back-to-back solo homeruns in the ninth. He also nearly lost Saturday’s game against the Pirates, who had the tying run on third base when the Cardinals got the final out.

The Cardinals’ offense has the highest batting average, .274, of any National League team, but they still go through stretches when they can’t score more than one or two runs in consecutive games. Even though the Cardinals won 5-4 Saturday against the Pirates, they still left eight men on base. That isn’t going to work against the good teams up next on the schedule.

Every part of the team is going to have to be consistently productive in the next two weeks if the Cardinals want a chance to have an exciting rather than excruciating final month of the season.