Welcome to this week’s Triple Play. This week, we examine an ace lefty, a couple of Giant pitchers who are anything but, a pitcher rebounding nicely from a horrific injury, and more. Here we go:

Who’s Hot?

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

Sale has been breezing through opposing lineups. Since getting rocked for eight earned runs against Cleveland on April 13, Sale has allowed a total on seven earned runs in his next six starts. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a run in 23 innings. The Angels are certainly tired of facing him. In Sale’s past two starts (both against the punchless Halos), Sale shut them down for 16 2/3 innings, allowing four hits and four walks, while punching out 19. For the season, the lanky lefty is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA and a glowing 0.92 WHIP. That puts him on pace to win 20 games with 240-plus strikeouts, and a 4-to-a strikeout-to-walk ratio – all numbers are pure gold for fantasy owners. His Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) ratio is 3.19, which indicates that a small regression may be on the way, but it would be unreasonable to expect Sale to continue his current pace. Make no mistake, though. Sale is a stud, and you should be ready to pay accordingly if you’re looking to deal for him in your fantasy league.

Who’s Not?

Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants

It’s safe to say that whatever magic spell that turned Vogelsong into such an effective pitcher in 2011-12 has expired and he has turned back into a pumpkin. Simply put, Vogelsong has been terrible. How terrible, you ask? In eight starts, he has allowed an NL-worst 37 earned runs – that’s more than half the earned runs he allowed the entire 2012 season in 190 innings. He currently sports an ERA over 8 and a 2.67 WHIP. Stats like that will kill an entire fantasy pitching staff. But manager Bruce Bochy is going to stick with Vogelsong for the time being. You should not. The rest of the NL West is a muddled mess, so the first-place Giants don’t seem to believe finding a replacement is a priority. You should, however, if you’re stuck with Vogelsong on your fantasy team. You’d be better off with a middle reliever who isn’t single-handedly destroying your ERA and WHIP categories. A middle reliever might also vulture the occasional win or save.

Playing the Name Game

Player A: .121 avg, .319 OPS
Player B: .123 avg, .319 OPS

Player A is actually the collective batting average and OPS for the Seattle Mariners’ shortstops so far this season. Player B represents the same stats for National League pitchers. NBC Sports HardballTalk reported this hilariously eye-popping stat a few days ago. Upon closer review, Seattle’s Brendan Ryan and Robert Andino have combined for 1 homer (plus 11 RBI, two steals, and 12 runs scored). Meanwhile, the following NL pitchers have homered: Clayton Kershaw, Wade Miley, Tim Hudson, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Samardzjia, and Eric Stults. All of this leads me to ask: how much longer are the Mariners going to wait to call up Nick Franklin? He’s hitting .328/.451/.509 with 4 homers, 17 RBI, 5 steals and 26 runs scored at Triple-A Tacoma. Talk about an instant upgrade. This should be a no-brainer. Come on, Jack Zduriencik. Fantasy owners are waiting, rather impatiently.

Player A: .210/.258/.347, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 17 runs, 1 SB
Player B: .293/.416/.455, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 18 runs, 0 SB

Player A is Josh Hamilton. Player B is Lance Berkman, the man the Texas Rangers signed to replace Hamilton after his defection to Los Angeles. Thanks to the DH, the Big Puma has been able to avoid playing the field – thus keeping his legs healthier than during his injury-plagued 2012 – and focus on hitting. At 37, Berkman remains a terrific hitter. His OPS+ of 130 ranks second on the team (to Mitch Moreland), and he is on pace to hit close to .300 and drive in 80 runs. Hamilton, meanwhile, is on pace for 46 RBI and an average below the Mendoza Line. Advantage: Texas. Fantasy-wise, Berkman was most likely had in your league at a bargain-basement price or a late round due to his injuries last season. He is on pace for around 15 homers and 75 runs scored in addition to those 80 RBI. Hamilton is on pace to hit just 19 home runs this season, plus 65 runs scored and a handful of stolen bases. After clubbing a career-high 43 long balls in 2012, fantasy owners no doubt paid big bucks to land Hamilton on their team. Barring a huge turnaround, he’s going to leave owners and Angel fans wishing they had picked up the Berkman instead.

Random Thoughts

• After Baltimore closer Jim Johnson saw his team record of 35 consecutive saves snapped last week, he really imploded in spectacular fashion Saturday against the Rays: six batters faced, three hits, two walks, FIVE earned runs, one out. Yeesh.
• Raise your hand if you predicted that the Rockies would be supplying the Yankees with a consistent supply of infielders this season (first Chris Nelson, then Reid Brignac over the weekend). Notice I left the word “quality” out of the previous sentence.
• And yet, the Yankees keep winning. How long before the New York media starts touting Vernon Wells as an MVP candidate?
• Tony Cingrani made six starts, pitching 33 innings with a 41-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 1.02 WHIP. Mike Leake has made eight starts with a 34-to-13 K-to-BB ratio and a 1.49 WHIP. Naturally, it’s Cingrani being sent to the minors to make room for Johnny Cueto instead of Leake. Brilliant move, Cincinnati.
• Wainwright Walk Watch: The Cardinals’ ace pitched 37 innings this season before issuing his first walk. So far this season, he has walked six batters while striking out 71. Among NL starters who have tossed at least 50 innings, only Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann (9) has walked fewer than 10 batters.
• Conversely, Boston’s Ryan Dempster walked six Minnesota batters in less than five innings Saturday. Guess that little glove shake before he throws the ball doesn’t fool the umpires any more than it does the hitters.
• Did you see Tim Lincecum lose his balance and fall off the mound while winding up Saturday night against the Rockies? It resulted in the runner on first being balked to second, then the runner came around to score on a single by Tyler Chatwood (the opposing pitcher). A train wreck of an inning – and a perfect summation of Lincecum’s career the past few years.
• It’s not yet Memorial Day, but it might be time to stick a fork (phork?) in the Phillies. Getting a runner to third ONCE against a salad tosser like Bronson Arroyo? That’s ugly. I would suggest that Philly unload their veterans and rebuild, but outside of Cliff Lee, who would want them?
• It appears that Braves lefty specialist Eric O’Flaherty is going to join teammate Jonny Venters in elbow-surgery land soon. Last one in the Atlanta bullpen, please turn out the lights.
• What a great sight Saturday night, watching Brandon McCarthy spin a complete-game, three-hit shutout of the Marlins. Although it’s his first win of the season, McCarthy has been pitching pretty well this season. His 37-to-8 K-to-BB ratio is stellar, and his FIP rating of 3.74 indicates that he has been better than the results show. Focus on that if you’re thinking of picking him up in your fantasy league. In any case, Saturday night had to be extra satisfying for McCarthy, even if it was against the worst team in baseball. After that horrifying skull fracture last September, I’ll bet he doesn’t care who his opponent is, as long as he is out there able to play in good health. Here’s to continued success for him. Baseball is better with guys like McCarthy on the field.

Follow me on Twitter: @ccaylor10

The Royals wrap up their California road trip this weekend with a three game series with Oakland.  With the Tigers getting their series with the red hot Rangers off to a humiliating start, this could be a great chance for the Royals to close the one game lead in the American League Central.  Here are the matchups by the numbers.

The A’s are coming off of a losing series against the Rangers.  They were out scored in that series by only a single run.  In 42 games, the A’s have scored 199 runs for an average of close to 5 runs a game.  Strangely enough, the number of runs scored against the A’s is an identical 199.  If the Royals can contain Oakland’s offense this weekend they are sure to like where they sit in the rankings come Monday morning.

Friday:

James Shields gets the start for the Royals.  Shields took the loss in his last game against the Yankees and a no decision against the White Sox.  Both were tough losses for the Royals as Shields only allowed 2 runs to New York and none at all to the Sox.  Shields has struck out close to a batter an inning and owns a 0.97 WHIP.  Look for Big Game James to keep the Oakland offense in check on Friday night.

The A’s will send Jarrod Parker to the hill on Friday to face Shields.  Parker has been pretty terrible thus far.  His only wins so far this year have only come when his team has provided great run support behind him such as his 10-6 win against the Angles.  His ERA is approaching 7 and has been allowing close to 2 base runners an inning.  If Parker turns this around on Friday it will be surprising.

Saturday:

Ervin Santana will start for the Royals.  Santana is coming off of a disappointing game against the Yankees giving up 8 hits, 2 of which were home runs.  The long ball can at times be Santana’s biggest weakness and as mentioned before, the A’s can hit.  Fortunately, the Coliseum is a pitcher friendly park and should help Santana keep in on the field.

Santana will face off against Tommy Milone.  Milone has been pretty hit or miss so far this year.  His ERA is a deceiving 3.71.  He has surrendered 13 earned runs in his last 5 starts, however in two of those starts he shut his opponents down completely.  The Royals hope they get the Tommy Milone that gives up an earned run per inning and not the Tommy Milone that gives up none at all.

Sunday:

Luis Mendoza gets the start on Sunday.  Mendoza has had a rough year so far.  Unlike Santana, his troubles extend past giving up home runs.  Mendoza has given up lots of hits as well as the occasional walk and he has yet to pitch past the 6^th inning.  The Royals are going to have to provide Mendoza with a lot of run support to keep this game in control.

Run support could be hard to come by though as A.J. Griffin will be starting for the A’s on Sunday.  Griffin posted a 3.06 ERA last year and has looked sharp so far.  His 3.48 ERA this year is somewhat bloated thanks to one horrendous start against the Red Sox where he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings.  The Royals will have to try to get to Griffin early for the finale of the series.

James Shields was the “big name” in the Shields/Wade Davis trade, but the success or failure of the trade hinges on Davis. Shields is the Kansas City Royals’ ace, but he’s a free agent after the 2014 season. Whether he pitches well or not, it’s likely he’s gone after two years. However, Davis is under team control until 2016. The Royals believe Shields will improve the team now. As for Davis, the Royals believe he will develop into a two or three starter and be a part of the starting rotation the next few seasons.

This spring, the Royals plan to give Davis every chance to make the starting rotation as their 3-4-5 starter. From 2009-2011, Davis started 64 games for the Tampa Bay Rays. But last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen, appearing in 54 games. During Spring Training, the Rays gave Davis a shot as their fifth starter, but he lost out to Jeff Niemann. And when Niemann went down with a broken ankle, the Rays promoted Alex Cobb to the starting rotation, leaving Davis in the bullpen.

So is Davis a better starter, or a better reliever? Let’s see what the stats say:

Davis prefers a starting role, but his stats say he’s a better reliever. He had a much lower ERA, and over nine innings gave up fewer hits and struck out more batters. However, he did walk more batters over nine innings, which isn’t good if you’re a reliever. And with the Rays talented starting rotation last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen.

But how does Davis as a starter compare to the 2012 Royals starting rotation? Here’s the stats of the top five Royals starters:

If you take Davis’ worst year, 2011, he had a better ERA than the Royals rotation, save Jeremy Guthrie and Luis Mendoza. The Royals rotation had more SO/9 than the 2011 Davis and except for Mendoza and Will Smith, the Royals rotation had a better BB/9 ratio than the 2011 Davis. If Davis was in the Royals starting rotation last year, he would likely be the number three starter behind Guthrie and Mendoza.

So what does this mean? Well, Davis is a good middle of the rotation starter, but is a better reliever. If Bruce Chen and Mendoza regress, Luke Hochevar pitches like Luke Hochevar and Davis pitches like he did in 2010, he’ll be in the starting rotation. But if Chen, Mendoza or Hochevar have a great Spring Training, Davis might end up in the bullpen.

But that’s not likely, despite what happens this spring. The Royals will give Davis every opportunity to make the starting rotation, just to show the Shields/Davis trade wasn’t a bust like some Royals fans and pundits think it is. If Shields and Davis are starters, the trade doesn’t look bad. The team got two quality starters to improve their rotation. But if Shields is a starter and Davis is a reliever, then the trade looks like the Royals got an ace for only two years and another bullpen arm in an already strong bullpen. Not bad, but not that good either.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been looking for a left handed relief pitcher this off season.  Today, they got their man.

Cards sign Choate to 3 years, $75 million contract

Randy Choate is a 37-year old left handed relief pitcher that has pitched for five teams in his twelve year major league career, spanning back to his rookie season in 2000 with the New York Yankees.

Choate is a true LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY) and exactly what the Cardinals were looking for.  He has lead the league in appearances two of the last three seasons with 85 in 2010 and 80 in 2012.  As the term suggests, however, many appearances do not lead to a ton of innings.  Choate threw just 38.2 innings last season.

Tough against lefties, he has held them to a .201 batting average over his career while compiling a 3.52 strikeout to walk ratio as well.

He split time last year between Florida and the Dodgers, having been part of the Hanley Ramirez trade.

Here’s a quick look at his career statistics, as well as his 2012 splits, courtesy of Baseball Reference:

Career Splits:

2012 Splits:

The Cardinals will turn their focus to the middle infield now, where there appear to be shopping for an upgrade at second base or a long term answer at shortstop.

I hope you can forgive a bit of rambling in this article, as a I am not even in high school yet.

My humor revolves mostly around things like ASDFmovie, and Gangnam Style.My friends and I play violent games like tennis, where one slaps the others hand and vice-versa until one of the players wimps out. Our sleepovers revolve mainly around games like Dead Island, Left 4 Dead, and MLB 2K12. (The last one is just me and my best friend)

In the past Dayton Moore has made decisions like we might at 2:00 in the morning when we are playing 2K12, and the case of Diet Code Red Mountain Dew (I have type 1 Diabetes, so we drink diet) is nearly drained. As I am currently typing this, it is very late on a Saturday night, and I have earbuds in, a laptop on the top of my lap, and the TV tuned in the MLB Network’s “Countdown, Top 25 Comebacks of All Time” But back to the point, Dayton Moore has made some pretty awful decisions since the blind squirrel that is the Kansas City Royals found an acorn in the return for Zack Greinke, but I will break that trade down in another article.

Ervin Santana is a Kansas City Royal. It even feels good to say. It is not even the best case scenario, but it is progress, and it is better that the previous news rush that Chris Volstad is a Royal. My hope with that pick up is that they hope they can fix him, and if they can’t, such as life. They cut him and pay him nothing. Let’s attempt to avoid that topic though. Santana was absolutely horrific this past season, posting a 5.16 ERA, -1.6 WAR, and a 1.27 WHIP, all while being paid 11.2 million dollars, Santana did though put up 178.0 innings in 2012. Even though there are currently 8 starters on the Royals depth chart, Santana is one of them. Some writers have been complaining that Moore should have gone after Dan Haren. Luke Hochevar was MORE horrific though, posting an ERA, WAR, and WHIP (All previous listed stats other than innings and salary) worse than Santana. I am hoping the Royals non-tender Hoch, but is highly unlikely. Just Rany predicted, Moore acted early.

I hope he acted effectively. He proved he is willing to spend money. Gil Meche was the last time Moore spent legit money on a starter, spending 12 (The option that they picked up on Santana was 13 million, but the Angels also gave Kansas City a million) million on Santana after, well, I am just assuming here, the Angels completely lost hope in him. Every few years he seems to have some kind of collapse, but I bet the Royals will only have him for 1 year. If you have been especially attentive while you have been reading this, then you have probably learned a lot. How strange I am. A great analogy about Dayton Moore’s decision making, and how this is a step in the right direction, and a decent sized one.

It will undoubtedly be the number one mission of Dayton Moore to improve the pitching for his Kansas City Royals in the off-season. While history shows that inking a true #1 starter is probably out of Moore’s reach, there has been some hope amongst fans that a steady #2 could be coming along with help from the minors. Today we’ll take a look at the top pitching prospects, and how they’re performing in the minors.

Jake Odorizzi (12-4, 3.22 ERA, 118 K, 41 BB) Easily the best hope for Royals fans hoping to find a young pitcher that can help this club in 2013. Odorizzi has put up acceptable numbers in AAA, especially for a 22 year-old, but he’s averaging less than six innings per start in Omaha and his WHIP has increased dramatically since his promotion while his strikeout numbers have plummeted.

Mike Montgomery (5-9, 5.64 ERA, 91 K, 57 BB) Montgomery has taken the opposite route as Odorizzi this year, putting up a 5.69 ERA in Omaha before getting demoted this summer. Once thought to be a possible ace in the Royals’ future, the 23 year-old is now looking like he may be a long shot to ever turn into even a decent starter. The results haven’t been much more promising since his demotion as he still sports an ERA over 5 and his k/9 inning rate has actually dropped to 6.0.

J.C. Sulbaran (7-7, 3.98 ERA, 113 K, 57BB) This 22 year-old righthander was a part of the Jonathan Broxton trade. He has electric stuff, striking out more than a batter an inning at every level so far, but far too many walks still. In his first start in Northwest Arkansas he walked three and gave up three hits in just four innings, but only allowed one run to score.

John Lamb- It’s still questionable whether he will actually get into game action in 2012. Lamb is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, but battled tendinitis in his foot just before he was ready to return in July. He’s still just 22 years old but he has a long ways to go before he’ll be considered ready for the majors.

Chris Dwyer (7-11, 5.83 ERA, 94 K, 58 BB) Like many other pitchers in the Royals system Dwyer has lost both the ability to throw strikes and strike people out. His five starts in Omaha have been Jonathan Sanchez-like and at 24 years old it’ll be hard to consider him a prospect much longer.

Yordano Ventura (3-7, 3.78 ERA, 115 K, 38 BB) After his appearance in the Futures Game Ventura was promoted to AA and has seen mixed results. He just turned 21 years old, so a couple of bumps at this level are to be expected, but if he struggles for an extended period many think the Royals may try to turn him into a reliever. His stuff is outstanding but he’s much more likely to help in late 2014 or Opening Day 2015.

Noel Arguelles (3-12, 7.17 ERA, 41 K, 55 BB) A lot of time stats do not tell the full story, I’m not sure these need any explanation.

Jason Adam (3-11, 3.94 ERA, 99 K, 30 BB) A local kid that has been very solid in high-A ball. He just turned 21, and should get his shot in AA next season, but he probably doesn’t profile as anything more than a back-end of the rotation starter at this point.

Kyle Zimmer (1-2, 4.05 ERA, 26 K, 5 BB) The Royals 2012 first round pick started in rookie ball and was absolutely dominant in his three starts there. Since his promotion to Kane County it’s been a little different story, but it’s encouraging for him to be this far along nonetheless. A strong finish could put him in line for a trip to Wilmington in 2013.

With the exception of Odorizzi it is hard to find anyone that might help this club in 2012. What’s perhaps more discouraging is that it’s easy to wonder if Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer, or Arguelles will ever reach Kauffman Stadium. As the big league team has put up catastrophe after catastrophe, we as fans have held on to the talent in the minors for hope. Now, six years into the process, these are our top nine starting pitching prospects; a hodgepodge collection of Tommy John surgeries, lost command and unfulfilled promise.

It’s not yet time to close the books on the Zack Greinke trade of a year and a half ago. That day won’t come for a long time.

But now is a great time to check the bottom line, to begin to gauge who is coming out better on the trade – the Royals or Brewers.

It will be years before we can judge just what the Royals let get away in Greinke, what they got in return in Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress, and what the Brewers got in trading away Greinke on Sunday. But we can take a first look now that Greinke’s time in Milwaukee is finished.

By one standard, the Brewers came away from the trade as the decided victors. After all, they did reach the NL Championship series with Greinke, while the Royals haven’t sniffed the playoffs in a generation. After all, in the end, you play to win the World Series. The Brewers did what they could to make a run at it.

But taking a bit more of a long-term perspective, the balance tips currently in favor of the Royals.

While the Brewers have plummeted to fourth in the NL Central (nine games below .500 at the time of the trade), the Royals’ “process” sputters along. The Brewers found themselves in such need of help at a host of positions that it made sense to pack Greinke off rather than attempt to re-sign him.

Meanwhile the Royals are plugging into the process the pieces acquired a year and a half ago.

So the Greinke Adventure in Milwaukee lasted just a year and a half. But how good really was Greinke in Milwaukee?

At the time of the trade that sent him to Anaheim, his ERA of 3.44 this year was just 20^th in the National League. His WHIP of 1.20 was also just 20^th. His nine wins were tied for 16^th. His WAR this year was 2.3, good for 15^th among pitchers.

And while the Brewers made a run in the playoffs in 2011, you could argue Greinke was even worse that year than this. Last year his ERA, 3.83, was 34^th in the NL. His WHIP of 1.20 was 15^th. His WAR was just 1.4, 52^nd in the league. His 16 wins did at least tie him for 6^th in the NL.

But when the Brewers needed Greinke most, he was far from the star they traded for. His ERA in one playoff game against Arizona ? 7.20. And in two games, one a win and one a loss, in the NLCS versus St. Louis, his ERA was 6.17.

Greinke failed to make the All-Star Game in either season as a Brewer. He was not a fan favorite. He was not popular with teammates. He was not a leader.

In short, Greinke hasn’t been the Greinke of 2009 since, well, since 2009. That season stands out more and more as a statistical anomaly. A one-hit wonder who keeps cranking out tunes, but just can’t quite capture the sound of his Cy Young season.

The Brewers dealt away the shortstop of their future – Alcides Escobar – to get Greinke. So this year they were so in need of a shortstop that that’s essentially what they traded Greinke to get. They got Jean Segura, with a total of one game in the bigs to his credit. He’s currently getting his legs under him at Double A.

Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar may not be an All Star, but he should be. Just three years older than Segura, Escobar has established himself as one of the top fielders and hitters at the position in the American League.

Added recently to the Royals otherwise dismal lineup is Lorenzo Cain. The man who could soften the blow of the Melky Cabrera/Jonathan Sanchez disaster has rebounded from injury to flash some tremendous potential. So far he’s provided some pop with the bat. And when he’s fully healthy, he should be a dynamic fielder in center and a dangerous base runner too.

The Brewers also acquired from the Angels in Sunday’s trade two 23-year-old pitchers who were laboring unspectacularly in Double AA for the Angels.

In contrast, the Royals got in the 2010 Greinke trade 22-year-old Jake Odorizzi, who has asserted himself this year as one of the best pitching prospects in all the minor leagues.

And one final wild card in the equation is Jeremy Jeffress, who is still just 24 and is working to harness the talent that made him a first round draft choice in 2006.

Escobar and Cain are under team control through 2017. If “the process” is to finally succeed, they will be key components of it. Odorizzi will almost certainly be in the KC rotation next season. Jeffress might be back in KC before it’s all over too.

A year ago, the Brewers looked like they made the right move to get Greinke. But the more time passes, the more it looks like the Royals will come out the winners in that trade.

Check back in about a decade to see the final result. But right now, it looks like Dayton Moore is the winner in this trade.

All the talk since the All Star break has been how the Kansas City Royals may actually be ready to hit the free agent market for some starting pitching.

Well, July 21^st marks the 20^th anniversary of just how wrong things can go when you go shopping.

For those of us who pine for the good old days of Royals baseball, we recall how the era came crashing down at the feet of one man – reliever Mark Davis.

Coming off a 92-win season, the Royals were ready to load up for another run at the pennant. And who would expect less, with a lineup of George Brett, Willie Wilson, Frank White, Bo Jackson, Danny Tartabull, Kevin Seitzer and youngsters Mike McFarlane and Brian McRae.

The rotation was equally stacked with Bret Saberhagen and Mark Gubicza being joined by 22-year-olds Kevin Appier and Tom Gordon.

But the team had no established closer, and prior to the 1990 season, the best one in baseball became available.

With San Diego in 1989, Davis saved 44 games, made his second straight All Star appearance, and became just the seventh reliever to win the Cy Young award.

With a price tag of $3.25 million per year – at the time the highest contract ever award – Davis was just what the Royals needed to slam the door on all those games pitched by their young starters.

But what ensued was a free agency nightmare, the end of the Royals golden era, and a cautionary tale to any team going shopping in the off season.

Maybe it was the pressure of the big contract. Maybe it was the move to the American League. Maybe it was the Kansas City barbeque.

Something didn’t agree with Davis and he was taken out of the closer role before the season was over. He was still striking out guys, but he was walking them too, at an alarming rate of 6.8 per 9 innings. His WHIP ballooned to 1.791. And his miniscule 1.85 ERA from the year before suddenly shot to 5.11.

The Royals even tried shifting Davis to the starting rotation, trying to find anything that clicked. But when the curtain fell on a season that started with such great promise, the Royals record stood at 75-86, sixth in the Western Division.

Jeff Montgomery settled into the closer’s role for 1991, and Davis tried to right himself in middle relief and spot starts. KC’s record improved to 82-80, but tremendous turnover had taken place. This was no longer the Royals of Brett, Wilson and White.

Bad as things had been, the bottom fell out in 1992.

With a clownish 7.18 ERA and an unheard of strikeout to walk ratio of .068, the Royals finally had no choice but to dump Davis for whatever they could get. The ax finally fell on July 21, 1992, when the Royals traded Davis for Juan Berenguer.

Berenguer was hardly an improvement, and he was granted free agency following the season.

So for their $14 million investment, the Royals got 7 saves and a 10-17 record between Davis and Berenguer combined. The team finished 72-90.

There probably isn’t some sort of Mark Davis curse at play here, but there’s no question that the Royals have had little to no luck in free agency ever since. The team has just two winning seasons in the 20 years since the Davis experiment was mercifully cut short.

Strangely, that wasn’t the end of the story however.

From 2006 to 2010, Davis served as the pitching coach of the Arizona League Royals. Following the 2010 season, he was promoted by the Royals to Minor League Pitching Coordinator. For 2012, he returned to his former role in Arizona.

Is having someone who flamed out so famously instructing young pitchers really a good thing? Hard to say. Not much is going right for Royals’ pitching prospects at any level. Which is precisely why the Royals will be shoppers this off season.

But with the topic in KC turning to free agency, it’s worth looking back at the Mark Davis signing with a wary eye. The Royals need to sign some pitching, no doubt. But doing so isn’t always the fix you hope for.

Sometimes it turns into a franchise killer.

Last night, May 1st, Adam Wainwright got his first victory of the year against the Pittsburgh Pirates, as the Cardinals bats lashed out for 10 runs and 13 hits. The Pirates and their inept defense can always be counted on as a cure for any offensive slump! But more important to the long-term outlook of St. Louis season, is the progress made by Wainwright in his recovery from Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all of the 2011 season. Wainwright pitched seven innings with the following line: 5 hits, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K’s. Not a bad outing. The million dollar question is, what is the new standard of expectation for post-TJ Waino, or Waino 2.0, as I like to call him.

Concerns abounded when Wainwright had several less than stellar starts. Questions arose such as, “will he ever get his velocity back?”, “why isn’t his breaking ball working like it used to?”, “should he go to the bullpen until he gets ‘right’”? Certainly all reasonable questions based on his early performance, made more alarming by his stellar spring training. Everyone thought the Cardinals were getting Waino 1.0 back. The problem is no two pitchers are exactly the same, and no two pitchers respond to TJ surgery in the same manner, or on the same timetable.

So far in 2012, Wainwright has pitched 27 innings with an ERA of 6.75, WHIP of 1.31, and only 1 win against 3 losses. His numbers are worse than any other pitcher on the Cardinals staff using the above metrics. A deeper look into the numbers will reveal that things are not quite as “bad” as they may seem through his first five starts.

A quick qualitative observation before we dig into the numbers…

Wainwright looks extremely focused every time I have seen him. He definitely has the Carp death stare down to a science since his return. The other thing I have noticed while watching him pitch, however, is that he seems to be laboring on the mound pretty heavily. Watch his breathing as he pitches, he is really huffing and puffing out there. Part of it I attribute to adrenaline, and part to getting back into the routine of pitching every five days when the games actually matter. I do not believe he has fully re-accustomed to the physical demands of pitching and it is affecting his stuff. Each time out, his game conditioning and strength will improve, and as a result make it easier to locate his pitches and his breaking ball to break like it should.

In regards to his numbers….

Through his first 27 innings, he has struck out 27 batters. That is a very encouraging sign. In addition, he has only walked 6 batters. His 4.5 K/BB ratio is better than any season of his career (yes I know, small sample size and all that), but Wainwright’s struggles can not be attributed to no longer being able to strike batters out or an inability to throw strikes. He is doing better than ever in that category.

He has a ground ball rate of 54%, which is tremendous. Line drive rate of 18% is also very good. His babip (batting average balls in play) is 31%, which is right near league-average. The main area of concern for Wainwright so far has been % of flyballs that leave the yard. So far this season, 33% of flyballs hit against him have been home runs, and in his last two starts, 50%.

That is an astounding percentage, and I fully expect that number to return to league average 10% in his coming starts. Had that been the case, his ERA would actually be 2.80 this season instead of 6.75. As a matter of fact, that is his xERA (2.80) to date.

No one fully knows what “normal” looks like for Waino 2.0. What we do know is that all the metrics are very good, save home run/fly ball percentage. Once that is corrected, Wainwright should be a sub-3 ERA pitcher again, and the Cardinals pitching staff will be even better.

Scary thought.

2011 saw the Royals’ top hitting prospects take a step forward, while many of their pitching prospects took a step sideways, down or out.

Spring training saw a similar result, as many of the position players the Royals are banking on flourished, while pitching remained the big question mark.

As of Friday, the games count. But the results from spring training are worth some analysis as the Royals head north with high aspirations.

The Royals’ opening day starter, Bruce Chen, probably deserves a pass this spring. He’s been through this countless times, and he wasn’t pitching to win a spot in the rotation. He was doing what he needs to do to be ready for the season.

Courtesy of Minda Haas

That said, Chen was not good in Arizona. He surrendered 37 hits in 22 innings, including an alarming six homers. Opponents batted .378 against him, and his ERA was an unsightly 9.41.

Another lock to start, Luke Hochevar hopes to put his roller-coaster highs and lows behind him. He was very solid in spring, surrendering just a 2.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Best of all, he allowed just one homer in 19 innings pitched.

The stud of the spring was undoubtedly Luis Mendoza. I predicted back in late February that Mendoza could provide the surprise boost the Royals pitching staff needs. The 28-year-old righty got credit for four wins in the spring. Opponents could barely scratch out a hit against him – 11 in 16 innings. His ERA was just 0.54 and his WHIP was 0.84.

If Mendoza was the stud of the spring, then Mike Montgomery was the dud. While KC had a list of about 8 guys who were seriously in contention for rotation slots, the door would certainly have been held open for the 22-year-old Montgomery. But Montgomery flubbed the opportunity and manager Ned Yost was noticeably disappointed in the big lefty. I wrote last week about why Montgomery might be headed in the wrong direction (link).

Not far behind Montgomery was second-year candidate Danny Duffy. The Royals stood by Duffy during his painful learning experience in year one. But this spring, he looked no less lost than in 2011. He struggled his way to an 8.31 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP.

Duffy was terrible, and his main competition, Felipe Paulino, was equally bad. Paulino will start the season rehabbing an injury, most likely in Omaha, and he’ll have to earn a return to KC after posting a 7.71 spring ERA.

Horrifyingly, Duffy and Paulino were not the worst pitchers in Surprise (aside from Chen). That honor goes to Jonathan Sanchez, who got bombed this spring after coming over from San Francisco, supposedly to give the Royals an “ace.”

Sanchez gave up 17 hits and 13 runs in just 11.1 innings. His 2.03 WHIP led all Royals with more than 10 innings pitched. He was even worse in the exhibition game in San Diego, where he allowed two home runs in just two innings.

Last year’s All Star rep Aaron Crow made the switch to the rotation, made one start, then switched back after Joakim Soria blew out his arm. Crow was solid, allowing opponents to bat just .238 in the split role. He looks comfortable back in the bullpen and will look to put to rest fears that he was a half-season wonder.

Crow’s fellow closers, Jonathan Broxton and Greg Holland were equally solid in Arizona. Likely bullpen mates Tim Collins, Louis Coleman were ok as well.

Two other pleasant revelations were relievers Kelvin Herrera and Jose Mijares. Herrera has been lights-out at every level, and he was no less dominant in Surprise. He struck out 15 hitters in 13 innings, and his ERA was just 1.38. He gave up just five walks and no homers. I expected him to start the season in Omaha, but the Royals found they just couldn’t leave him behind.

Mijares also will start the year in KC after posting a 0.82 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in Arizona. He struck out just six in 11 innings, but hopefully will continue to lock down left-handed hitters in the big leagues.

One guy KC appeared ready to give up on made a solid case for himself in Arizona – Sean O’Sullivan. The big righty allowed opponents to bat just .268 against him, and his WHIP was a an impressive 1.13. He’ll start the season in Omaha, but hopefully will prove a reliable insurance plan as both a starter and reliever if needed in KC.

The relievers performed about as well as expected in Arizona. Crow shifted to the pen when Soria was lost, and Herrera and Mijares should make the bullpen collection dynamite.

But the rotation candidates, other than Hochevar, performed worse than was imaginable. Were it not for the incredible work by Mendoza, the spring would be a complete failure for the starters.

Only time will tell if Mendoza is as good, and Sanchez is as bad, as the numbers from Surprise would say they are.