Barring a complete collapse, it looks as though the Kansas City Royals will not finish in fourth or fifth place for the first time in ten years and the second in fifteen. They need to play one game over .500 in their next 32 to finish with their best record since 2003. They should comfortably surrender their lowest run total since 1995 while posting an improvement in wins for the third consecutive season, something they haven’t done since 1992. All of this begs the question, is this progress?

In terms of “The Process”, you would have to say that yes, this is progress. The Royals will head into 2013 with nearly an entire line up of players that are either homegrown or traded for while they were still unknown quantities. Nearly all of these players will either be locked up under a club-friendly deals or not yet eligible for free agency. The only real exception is Jeff Francoeur, who will most likely get one last chance to start in right field and prove exactly who he is toDaytonMoore…at least until after next year’s Super Two deadline. Francoeur and Bruce Chen will both be back in 2013 at a combined cost of $12 million. Still, what Moore has always told us is that once you have a majority of the team composed of your guys, under contract on your terms, then you can have the resources to go out and spend free agent money on one or two pieces where you need them. Mr. Moore, you have exactly that heading into 2013 with a club that I’m certain you’ll sell to us as improving, so where do the Royals need pieces?

In terms of position players there are two clear weaknesses in the Royals lineup. One of them we’ve already mentioned, right field, will be manned by Jeff Francoeur, and has a clear succession plan in Wil Myers. In other words, there is absolutely no reason to go add a right fielder. The second, and more glaring, weakness is at second base. Johnny Giavotella would have to hit a ton to make up for his defense, and to this point he hasn’t shown the ability to do that in the majors. Chris Getz, the likely starter in 2013, would have to be a gold glover to make up for his bat and he is not. The most prominent free agent at second base is Robinson Cano…even if the Royals had all the money in the world; I don’t think he’s coming toKansas Cityunder any circumstances. There are no other guaranteed upgrades over Getz available on the free agent market so it seems unlikely the Royals will add a major contract for a position player in 2013.

Obviously, the Royals major hole is in the rotation. In fact, their two biggest holes are in the rotation. They have a nice collection of 4 and 5 starters, but no one that figures to be a 3 or better in 2013. With a bullpen that is set and a lineup that isn’t changing, this is where all of Dayton Moore’s attention should be focused this offseason and he’s said as much. There is no telling how much money Moorehas to spend, but let’s just use $20 million. Why that number? That’s the prudent estimate of profit for the club in 2012, and you know David Glass has always said he’s just looking to break even. There are a lot of Royals fans dreaming about Zack Greinke, not only do I think that would be a pipe dream, it would also be ill-advised. Greinke will cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million, best case scenario about 100% of the Royals free agent budget. One pitcher with a 2.3 WAR does not make this pitching staff that much better. The Royals need to go out and get two pitchers at approximately $10 million a piece. I’m not going to get into who they should or shouldn’t be until the offseason, but the Royals should have them all scouted and should go hard after the two pitchers in that range they think best fit this rotation. Just throwing out two names off the top of my head, a rotation of Shaun Marcum-Jeremy Guthrie-Bruce Chen-Mendoza/Hochevar-Odorizzi/Smith could be a competitive rotation. Even better, the club would have the possibility of Danny Duffy or Felipe Paulino in July. That would be progress. But back to the question, is this progress? 2012? It is, but like everything else involving the Royals, it won’t mean a thing unless Glass and Moore take advantage of it.

As evidenced by the 2011 playoffs, the Royals need a true ace to make a run in 2012.

It’s pretty clear what the Kansas City Royals’ biggest need is for 2012.

Pitching.

They have to get better in the Earned Runs department before they are a competitive ball club. The Royals ended 2011 27^th in the Majors with a 4.44 ERA, only ahead of Houston (4.51), Minnesota (4.58)and Baltimore (4.89). That’s bad.

Really bad.

After watching the MLB playoffs so far this year, it’s pretty evident that the Royals need a true ace to make any kind of a playoff run. First, let’s take a look at the ERA’s of the teams that made the playoffs this year:

Philadelphia: 3.02 (1^st)

Tampa Bay: 3.58 (8^th)

Milwaukee: 3.63 (9^th)

New York: 3.73 (11^th)

St. Louis: 3.74 (12^th)

Texas: 3.79 (13^th)

Arizona: 3.80 (14^th)

Detroit: 4.04 (18^th)

These numbers are a little surprising, to say the least. Outside of Philadelphia’s amazing (regular season) rotation, no team in the playoffs this year cracked the top seven in ERA. Of the four remaining teams (Milwaukee, St. Louis, Texas, and Detroit) only one team is in the top 10 (Milwaukee).

The formula for the pitching staffs of these four teams looks a little like this:

1) One Stud Ace (Zack Greinke for Milwaukee, Chris Carpenter for St. Louis, C.J. Wilson for Texas, and Justin Verlander for Detroit)

2) 2-3 above average-to-decent starters

3) Consistent bullpen

This winter is one of the most important offseason for the Royals in the past 5 to 10 years because they are possibly only one or two pieces away from making a run towards the postseason. The lineup is pretty much set for Opening Day 2012, but the rotation really needs a guy who can put up an ERA under 3.00.

There has been a lot of talk about acquiring James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays via trade this offseason. If the Royals could pull it off (which is very possible) it would give the starting rotation a clear number one starter and assure a better ERA throughout next season.

For example, if the starting rotation for the 2011 season had Shields instead of Jeff Francis, their ERA would have been at 4.12 instead of 4.55. That’s not to say that simply plugging Shields into the rotation next year guarantees that type of jump in stats, but it will have some type of similar effect.

Hopefully, the returning starters (Luke Hochevar, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino) and the young arms out of the bullpen continue to improve and build on their successes from 2011. Then, one of these things has to happen:

1) Bruce Chen is re-signed

2) Another decent veteran starter is signed

3) A starter from the farm system (Mike Montgomery?) makes the rotation out of Spring Training

If all of these things occur, the Royals could very well be in the top 15 in ERA in the MLB next year. They were 10^th in the majors in runs scored this year, and it’s hard to see them go anywhere but up from there.

The pieces are falling in place now, so it’s time to bring in an ace. It could be Shields or it could be someone who hasn’t entered any trade rumors yet. Either way, the Royals need to make it happen.