If 2011 wasn’t exciting enough, 2012 will likely bring the debut of the 21-year-old Miller…at some point.  Shelby Miller is a gem in a talented and improving St. Louis Cardinals’ system.  Cardinal Nation needs to start getting excited.

With a rotation that already features Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and the emerging Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals are in great shape for years to come. Adding Miller to the mix in or around September will only boost a great pitching staff and make the Cardinals better.

He is unquestionably one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. Hype like that calls for future ace status.

Here are three reasons why Shelby Miller won’t disappoint.

Shelby Miller possesses a fastball which always lingers around the mid-90′s. More importantly, Miller has an incredible ability to command the pitch.

His ability to paint the strikezone’s corners make the fastball his best asset.

The Major League is full of sluggers who can drive breaking balls out of the park and, as a result, the fastball is becoming more important than ever.

Shelby Miller doesn’t need to worry about that. If he becomes a true ace, much thanks will go to his fastball.

At just 21, Shelby Miller is showing a lot of discipline and consistency with his entire delivery.

It is that delivery that is helping the righty remain one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Miller’s delivery is nothing flashy. It is compact and coordinated. Perhaps the best feature is his leg strength.

His leg power allows for an excellent push-off on the mound, giving him the extra momentum on his fastball that can now reach up to 97 mph.

His 6-foot-3 frame certainly helps as well.

If Miller builds on his delivery and progresses, we could be looking at one one of the least hittable young pitchers in baseball.

Right now, Shelby Miller has no reason to complain about his situation.

The Cardinals aren’t rebuilding or a struggling team looking for a face to boost their franchise, and they already have two bona fide aces on their staff in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.

But how long will those guys be around?

Wainwright hasn’t pitched in nearly a year due to Tommy John surgery and Carpenter will be a seasoned 37 years old come April.

If the spotlights get dimmer on both Carp and Wainwright, Shelby Miller will be there to pick up where the left off.

He has no other choice.

Jaime Garcia is not a No. 1 pitcher and the other St. Louis prospects will take much longer than Miller to develop.

Shelby Miller must be the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals.

As evidenced by the 2011 playoffs, the Royals need a true ace to make a run in 2012.

It’s pretty clear what the Kansas City Royals’ biggest need is for 2012.

Pitching.

They have to get better in the Earned Runs department before they are a competitive ball club. The Royals ended 2011 27^th in the Majors with a 4.44 ERA, only ahead of Houston (4.51), Minnesota (4.58)and Baltimore (4.89). That’s bad.

Really bad.

After watching the MLB playoffs so far this year, it’s pretty evident that the Royals need a true ace to make any kind of a playoff run. First, let’s take a look at the ERA’s of the teams that made the playoffs this year:

Philadelphia: 3.02 (1^st)

Tampa Bay: 3.58 (8^th)

Milwaukee: 3.63 (9^th)

New York: 3.73 (11^th)

St. Louis: 3.74 (12^th)

Texas: 3.79 (13^th)

Arizona: 3.80 (14^th)

Detroit: 4.04 (18^th)

These numbers are a little surprising, to say the least. Outside of Philadelphia’s amazing (regular season) rotation, no team in the playoffs this year cracked the top seven in ERA. Of the four remaining teams (Milwaukee, St. Louis, Texas, and Detroit) only one team is in the top 10 (Milwaukee).

The formula for the pitching staffs of these four teams looks a little like this:

1) One Stud Ace (Zack Greinke for Milwaukee, Chris Carpenter for St. Louis, C.J. Wilson for Texas, and Justin Verlander for Detroit)

2) 2-3 above average-to-decent starters

3) Consistent bullpen

This winter is one of the most important offseason for the Royals in the past 5 to 10 years because they are possibly only one or two pieces away from making a run towards the postseason. The lineup is pretty much set for Opening Day 2012, but the rotation really needs a guy who can put up an ERA under 3.00.

There has been a lot of talk about acquiring James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays via trade this offseason. If the Royals could pull it off (which is very possible) it would give the starting rotation a clear number one starter and assure a better ERA throughout next season.

For example, if the starting rotation for the 2011 season had Shields instead of Jeff Francis, their ERA would have been at 4.12 instead of 4.55. That’s not to say that simply plugging Shields into the rotation next year guarantees that type of jump in stats, but it will have some type of similar effect.

Hopefully, the returning starters (Luke Hochevar, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino) and the young arms out of the bullpen continue to improve and build on their successes from 2011. Then, one of these things has to happen:

1) Bruce Chen is re-signed

2) Another decent veteran starter is signed

3) A starter from the farm system (Mike Montgomery?) makes the rotation out of Spring Training

If all of these things occur, the Royals could very well be in the top 15 in ERA in the MLB next year. They were 10^th in the majors in runs scored this year, and it’s hard to see them go anywhere but up from there.

The pieces are falling in place now, so it’s time to bring in an ace. It could be Shields or it could be someone who hasn’t entered any trade rumors yet. Either way, the Royals need to make it happen.

Royals pitching coach Bob McClure was interviewed on 610 Sports Radio Friday afternoon, and he was asked to guess at what the team’s starting pitching rotation would look like on Opening Day. McClure hemmed and hawed before saying that hadn’t been decided yet.

McClure might not be ready to admit it yet, but I have a feeling the Royals know exactly who those five starters will be. I also have a feeling the rotation will look just like this come Opening Day:

1. Luke Hochevar, RHP

The team has as much as admitted Hochevar would be the “ace” next season (although I heard an interesting theory a few years ago that just because you’re the No. 1 starter doesn’t mean you’re an ace. And some teams can have more than one ace. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are aces. CC Sabathia is an ace. Tim Lincecum is an ace Zack Greinke is an ace. Luke Hochevar, sadly, is not an ace – though I’m hopeful he has the potential to turn into one.)

When it became clear Hochevar would probably get the nod to start Opening Day over Jeff Francis, I was a little confused. Francis is clearly a more proven pitcher with a lot more wins under his belt. But now I’m starting to get it. Hochevar has shown sparkles of brilliance, and if anybody on this current roster could turn into a true ace, it’s him. 2011 is a throwaway season, we all know it. We might as let Hochevar lead this staff – if only to see if he’s capable of doing it in the future.

2. Jeff Francis, LHP

It’s been a while since the Royals have had a really good, productive left-handed starter. And, as I wrote last week, the Francis free-agent signing was the smartest move of the Dayton Moore era.

Francis should do nicely in the No. 2 spot, even though he’ll clearly be the veteran leader of this team. And from what I’ve read about Francis’ makeup, he won’t mind that role at all.

Bruce Chen

3. Bruce Chen, LHP

I can’t remember the last time the Royals had two lefties in their starting rotation. I think the Royals will leave them next to each other in the rotation, too, because that presents some interesting challenges for opposing teams.

Besides closer Joakim Soria, Chen was the best pitcher on the team last season. That being said, I don’t expect him to repeat that performance. If he does, it’ll be terrific. But I’m afraid if he regresses at all, he’ll be called a flash-in-the-pan, and Dayton Moore will be criticized for re-signing him.

4. Kyle Davies, RHP

I’m afraid this is inevitable. Davies is not a very good starter, but he was able to make every scheduled start last year, and that’s not nothing. I think this is Davies’ last shot in Kansas City, though; too much fresh meat is coming up behind him.

5. Vin Mazzaro, RHP

Although it’s probably not a make-it-or-break-it situation for Mazzaro like it is for Davies, 2011 is without a doubt going to be a major milestone in Mazzaro’s career. This will be his first shot to pitch regularly in the majors, and we’ll all be watching to see if he can handle the pressure. And, we’ll also be watching to see if we truly did let Oakland steal David DeJesus.

Other possibilities

I think those five pitchers are going to comprise the starting rotation, but one of these guys could break in if there’s an injury:

Sean O’Sullivan, RHP: He showed improvement at the end of the 2010 season, but not enough. He’ll be a bullpen arm or, more likely, an Omaha StormChaser (that still doesn’t sound right).

Everett Teaford, LHP: Teaford got quite a bit of buzz in the offseason, and he probably had the best season of any pitcher in the organization last year. But it was at the AA level, and I don’t see him making the rotation this year.

Aaron Crow, RHP: It’s an extreme long-shot, but the Royals said they’ll take a look at the first-round draft pick during spring training.

Joakim Soria, RHP: Many fans have been hoping the team would convert the all-star closer into a starter. It’s next to impossible to believe it would actually happen this spring, but… this is the Royals we’re talking about. Anything goes.

Matt Kelsey is a Royals writer and the associate editor of I-70 Baseball. He can be reached at mattkelsey14@yahoo.com.

For argument’s sake, let’s say the Royals are at a guys’ night, enjoying some cold beverages, and playing the classic game, Texas Hold ‘Em. Using this same metaphor, here’s how I see a few key members of the current pitching staff as the two-card starting hands. Should the Royals hold ‘em or fold ‘em? Find out below.

For those of you not familiar with the rules of Texas Hold ‘Em, check out this Wikipedia article and come back to read the rest of this article.

Shuffle up and deal:

Luke Hochevar 7, 8 off suit

Hochevar was probably a King, Jack off suit directly after the 2006 draft, but the former first overall pick has yet to reach first round prowess. The de-facto ace of the pitching staff in 2011, Hochevar still has some potential to be a great hand. If the Royals can get a few cards falling its way, they could have a straight – a great betting hand in Texas Hold ‘Em. There are still many variables with Hochevar, he’ll have to stay healthy throughout the year and pitch at a consistently high level to be considered a true ace. His flashes of brilliance in 2009 and last year when he threw 7 and 2/3 scoreless innings against the Rangers are reasons to hold on to this hand. Result: Hold ‘Em… For now.

Kyle Davies 10, 2 off suit

A slice of history first – Doyle Brunson, arguably the best poker player ever, won two Texas Hold ‘Em World Series of Poker events in back-to-back years with this 10, 2 off suit hand. Brunson undoubtedly needed luck to complete the full houses that ensued when playing this hand to win the championship. The Royals need that same kind of luck with Kyle Davies. Last year, he finished with a 5.34 ERA and an 8-12 record. He will start the season as the Royals’ number two starting pitcher, but similar to Hochevar, the Royals will need a stroke of luck to win this hand. It’s a far-fetched proposition to expect brilliance on this shaky starting position. Result: Fold ‘Em.

Vin Mazzaro Queen, 10 suited

To preface, this could be a wishful starting hand for the 24-year-old righty from New Jersey. Mazzaro and minor leaguer, Justin Marks, were acquired for David DeJesus in November and Royals fans will learn quickly if they received an immediate return for the trade. This starting hand has great potential, but could also come back to bite the Royals if he falls flat on his face. Similar to flopping a pair, Mazzaro will need to perform at a high level early in the season to win over the fans. A Queen, 10 suited is a decent starting hand with a lot of potential and the Royals should play this hand. Result: Hold ‘Em.

Sean O’Sullivan pocket 3’s

This hand isn’t very sexy in the game of Texas Hold ‘Em, but it has the potential to take down big hands given the right conditions. O’Sullivan’s stats, on the surface, aren’t that sexy either. That being said, he is very young and will be very cheap for a long time and possesses mountains of potential. He’s got a chance to take down some of the bigger hands around the league given the right opportunities. The jury is still out on O’Sullivan, but he could mature to pocket 7’s if he continues to improve his command and presence on the mound. It should also be mentioned, O’Sullivan was good enough to pitch in the majors at age 21. He could be a good hand for the Royals for years to come. Result: Hold ‘Em.

Gil Meche 7, 2 off suit

From 2006 through 2008, Meche’s hand would’ve included an Ace because he had all the makings of an Ace pitcher. However, two years, several injuries, and $22.8 million dollars earned in those two seasons, his playing hand has reached the basement. A 7, 2 off suit is considered to be the worst hand in Texas Hold ‘Em, and Meche’s current role with the team as over-paid relief pitcher merits this starting position. The Royals will have to bluff their way out of this hand for any hope. Result: Fold ‘Em

Joakim Soria Pocket Kings

This hand is also known as “cowboys,” and is one of the strongest starting hands you can have in poker. Soria has many things going for him: he’s young (26), extremely talented (career 2.01 ERA), and will remain cheap and in club control until 2014. Aptly nicknamed, “The Mexicutioner,” Soria has already notched 132 career saves. The former Rule 5 pick out of the Padres’ organization, Soria has been and will continue to be a gem for the Royals. Result: Hold ‘Em as long as you can.

Disclaimer

There are many variables involved with Texas Hold ‘Em, like a lot of luck, reading body language, playing your opponent and not the cards, and so on. This isn’t designed to be a perfect metaphor, but a cheeky look at some of the integral pieces of the Royals’ pitching staff in 2011. Would you give some members of the pitching staff different starting hands, or agree with my assessments? Feel free to comment below.