It gets lost in the shuffle sometimes just how important of a Cardinal Scott Rolen was. And with his career perhaps coming to a close this week, it’s a ripe time to take a look at why. Perhaps it’s because it ended on such a dismissive note that what he represented in St. Louis at such a high point in the franchise’s history.

How will he be remembered? Overall, he’ll stand up tall with the people that watch his era. Not to the statuesque level of Chipper Jones, but really, there’s not many, if any, that played the hot corner in the last 15 years that were any better than him. A seven-time All-Star, 1997 Rookie of the Year and owner of eight Gold Gloves. But it’s the glove that truly stands out, because with the exception of Brooks Robinson’s escapades on the hot corner, nobody has ever done it better. There are some that would say he ever surpassed Hoover in the glove game, a claim that could amount to blasphemy by some, but has some credence with many. But the ground that Rolen could cover while standing at 6’4″, and combined with one of the best infield arms ever, makes it valid.

But what is it about Rolen that makes him not be more revered as a Cardinal? Was it the silent, perhaps even standoffish way he went about his business? Dig a little deeper, because he has some legit claim to be in the discussion for greatest Cardinal third baseman ever. That’s a not too shabby group that includes Ken Boyer, Mike Shannon and Whitey Kurowski. After being acquired as at the trade deadline in 2002, he embarked on a remarkable six year run with the club. Among all third baseman in franchise history, he is second in second in home runs (111) and doubles (173) and fourth in RBI with 453 despite hitting behind Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds the majority of his time with the club and missing much of the 2005 season.

He returned in time to help the club rebound from that disappointing 2005 season. He played huge, and slightly forgotten, role in taking the club to its second World Series in 2006; one where he built up eight hits in 19 at-bats, including a home run and three triples. This was his crowning moment as a Cardinal, but soon shoulder injuries would keep him off the field for much of the rest of his time with the club. While he has gone on to have strong campaigns with the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds, his career truly peaked as a Cardinal, and reached a point where he showcased just how great he truly could be.

So what is it that keeps Rolen from being a more embraced member of the franchise’s history? He doesn’t really get an exceptional reception from fans when he returns, especially considering what he contributed to a very recent era. Perhaps it’s the way he faded away at the end, or that there was nothing of great lasting return received for him. Maybe it’s the feud with Tony LaRussa that kept him from relishing many returns with the club. Perhaps it’s his affiliation with the club’s fiercest rival the last few seasons in Cincinnati, that hasn’t allowed for many moments of reflection.

Whatever it may be, if his decision to decline coming to Spring Training with the Reds, a team he recently said is the only one he’d consider returning to this year, it’s time to embrace the man more in St. Louis. He’s a virtual baseball nomad by a career sense; he could never go back to Philadelphia to a warm reception, and he spent the shortest tenures of his career in Toronto and Cincinnati. St. Louis is where he deserves to come back to eventually, for the recognition an outstanding player of his level deserves. Maybe, with some time and reflection, both sides will learn how to properly place each other.

The St. Louis Cardinals may be in some real trouble now.

An MRI on Rafael Furcal’s injured elbow Friday revealed the shortstop has a torn ligament and will be out for the rest of the season. In a season mired with injuries, the Cards may have finally taken a hit they cannot survive.
The Redbirds have been struggling this week, but the last several games are simply a reflection of a season-long issue they’ve had with sustaining offense. Sometimes they look like the best hitting team in all of baseball; sometimes—like the past few games, for instance—they look like the absolute worst. But they still found themselves holding on to a playoff spot, and as soon as last Sunday were only six games out of first place in the NL Central.

How are they doing it, in spite of such streaky offensive output? Pitching and defense, of course. And that’s going to be the problem going forward.

Furcal is on the wrong side of the prime of his career. Whether he is an elite defender anymore or not is certainly debatable. But he was certainly the best defender the Cardinals had on the infield when he was healthy. When the Cards acquired him at the trade deadline last July, Furcal immediately helped shore up a shaky defense up the middle. When a team’s pitchers are taught to pitch to contact, Ryan Theriot cannot be the everyday shortstop if the team expects to be successful. The Colby Rasmus trade may have been the “blockbuster” everyone drooled over, but without trading for Furcal there’s no way the Cardinal defense holds up for the stretch run.
Offensively, Furcal contributed as a solid leadoff hitter—something the Cards didn’t have up to that point. Again, his slash line wasn’t what it used to be in his prime. But Furcal set the table better than anyone they had before acquiring him, and he made the hitters behind him better.

His 2012 started off good, but recently health became an issue. Manager Mike Matheny started batting Furcal down in the lineup because his numbers nose-dived. He still made plays, but his ailing back had to have an effect on his range and defense. Then, on a throw across the diamond, his elbow gave out. The way things have gone for the Cards this year, their only possible reaction is “It figures.”

But now the Cards have more to worry about than ever before this season, even with Lance Berkman nearing a return and Chris Carpenter appearing to be ahead of schedule in his rehab. After unloading Brendan Ryan and Tyler Greene in the last few years, they have very little depth at shortstop. Pete Kozma has not been the answer before now; there is little reason to believe he’s the answer now. Daniel Descalso plays a decent short, but he is also needed at second base. Ryan Jackson may have a bright future, and it may be at shortstop. But he just made his major league debut a few weeks back.

The Cardinals still have that pitch to contact staff—but when contact is made, who’s going to catch the ball? Less range at short means third base and second base need to get to more balls. The entire infield gets a little more porous. And that is not a good thing for a team like the St. Louis Cardinals. Offensively, while Furcal was struggling, it certainly doesn’t appear anyone they replace him with will be tons better.

It certainly isn’t impossible to overcome this injury, but aside from losing Yadier Molina for an extended period this is just about the worst thing to happen to the Cards’ position players. They may not be chasing a playoff spot, but they have teams on their tail and some tough series yet to play in the final weeks of the season. They need something to break their way…soon.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

Since being only 3 games under .500 and sniffing the top of the division the Kansas City Royals have done nothing but struggle.

The pitching has been horrendous while the bats have seem to come alive a little in the month of July.  The batting order has produced the best average in the major leagues for the month of July.  The biggest problem with that is the lack of extra base hits when needed and hitting with runners on base so that when they can put a team away they can do it without relying on a pitching staff that has not helped out at all.

The question surrounding the organization now is how to keep fans interested one and even more how to get them to go out to the K to watch a team that is everything but mathematically out of the playoffs.  One way that they Royals can make some noise with their fans is by making a trade or two over the next five days before the non-waiver trade deadline on Tuesday afternoon.  One trade that would help fan get excited would the to tade away right fielder Jeff Franceour.  Now Frenchy is a fan favorite and also a good clubhouse guy but not only is he terrible at the plate as of the last few weeks but he is blocking players that seem to be the future in Kansas City.  At the big leauge level alone, he seems to be blocking Jarrod Dyson from getting any playing time not only because he is taking up an outfield spot but the team just cannot afford to have center fielder Lorenzo Cain out of the lineup right now.  The biggest Royal’s commodity that Frenchy seems to be blocking from he major leaues is number one hitting prospect Wil Myers.  Over the last few weeks in AAA Omaha Myers has regressed some but everything out of Omaha says that he is seeing a lot fewer fastballs and just hasnt adjusted to seeing all junk while at the plate.  Matter of fact is that whether he can hit a curveball right now or not he could probably at least hit somewhere north of the .242 mark that Franceour is currently sporting.  Not saying that he will be an instant success but at least it would be a development process and not a guy who seems to not know what pitches to swing at and which ones to take.  .242 is not good at any level especially when it is in front of guys who need to be in Kansas City to prepare for their future.

Another thing that could put the fans in their seats is if the Royals go out and get some kind of pitching that is not Jeremy Guthrie.  Nothing against that trade or the fact that it could end up being an okay thing for this season but that is not a name that is going to bring people to the ball park.  If the Royals were to show that they are committing to this town and this team with a blockbuster deal that would help for not only the next two months but also for the next 24 months or so people would get excited. The names have been thrown around the league of guys that are available but will the Royals bite.  They have the prospects it seems that would attract teams to answer the phone when general manager Dayton Moore comes a calling.  Not only that they could trade guys like Jonathan Broxton, Yuniesky Betancourt and Franceour, get prospects for them and then flip those prospects for a guy who is in the bigs already and coud help the team now and in the future.

Th simple fact is this.  The Royals would have to do something miraculous to play into October this season.  But they could keep everyone interested by making a late season run of good baseball along with the addition of a guy or two that will help in the future.  Training Camp is open in St. Joseph, Missouri for the Chiefs this week and if the Royals do not try and keep the fans interest, the fans will focus their attention to the other side of the Truman Sports Complex and just wait for Opening Day 2013 for a fresh start.

If there were any doubts the 2012 season was a lost cause for the Kansas City Royals, their 4-9 record and lackluster play after the All-Star break should erase it. The 12 game losing streak in April, injuries to key players, and the ineffectiveness of the starting rotation doomed the Royals 2012 season. The Royals are likely to suffer their ninth consecutive losing season and finish in fourth or fifth place in the American League Central. This is old news to Royals fans, but it doesn’t make it any easier to accept.

There’s still 65 games left in the 2012 season. The Royals have little hope making a playoff run, much less finishing around .500. Despite another lost season, there are some things to look forward to towards the trade deadline and the rest of the season.

The starting lineup is pretty much set and is looking good: Except for second base and right field, the rest of the lineup looks pretty good and they’re locked up for the next few years. The offense is showing more power and despite some defensive miscues in yesterday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels, the Royals defense is a bright spot.

The hopeful emergence of Eric Hosmer: His 2012 season so far is a disappointment, and Hosmer would likely be one of the first to agree. To salvage Hosmer’s season, the Royals moved him to eighth in the batting order. Hitting coach Kevin Seitzer is working on Hosmer’s approach at the plate, which is paying dividends. On June 23, Hosmer had a .213 average. In the last month, his average is up to .233.

The great play of Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez: What a case of what might have been for Cain and Perez. If the Royals had both players, or at least one of them for the season, the Royals might have a better win-loss record. Or maybe not. But it’s encouraging how Cain and Perez are playing after being out for almost half of the season. Now they need to stay healthy and play well the rest of the year and in 2013.

The Jonathan Sanchez/Jeremy Guthrie trade: I’m surprised the Royals were able to get anything for Sanchez. I figured Sanchez would clear waivers, refuse an assignment to AAA Omaha and become a free agent. But the Royals got Guthrie, who didn’t work out in Colorado. Guthrie’s start last Sunday didn’t inspire much confidence, but there’s a good chance he will pitch better than Sanchez.

The possible trades of Jeff Franceour, Yuni Betancourt, Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares: Of the four, Broxton is garnering the most interest. It’s unlikely the Royals will get a top of the rotation starter for any of these players, but they could get some solid prospects or Major League ready players.

A possible trade for a top of the rotation starter before the trade deadline: It could happen, however remote. If it does, the Royals will have to give up top prospects or perhaps one of their young players on the 25-man roster. Would the Royals trade someone like Hosmer for a top of the rotation starter that’s under team control for two to three years? It would be a big risk, given the fragility of pitchers and the superstar potential of Hosmer. But that may be what it takes for the Royals to gain a number one or two starter they desperately need.

The eventual arrival of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi: If or when Franceour is moved, Myers will join the Royals in right field. And it’s a matter of time before Odorizzi is called up and joins the starting rotation. Using the rest of the 2012 season to give them playing time will prepare them for the 2013 season and boost interest among Royals fans.

Of course there’s no guarantee 2013 will be any better than 2012. Key players could be injured, or the players the Royals get via free agency or a trade could flame out like Jonathan Sanchez. These are the Royals, after all. But the team is in better shape than they were a few years ago. There is always hope, because hope is all Royals fans have.

The Kansas City Royals find themselves in an all too familiar place at the 2012 trade deadline, as they are once again in “sell” mode.

Reality is starting to sink in. 2012 is certainly not appearing to be #OurTime. The Royals currently sit at 14 games under .500 (40-54) and 11 games behind the 1st place and surging Detroit Tigers. And after going 3-7 on their most recent homestand, are now only ahead of the lowly Minnesota Twins by 1/2 game. It is time to once again start looking toward next season, and what can the Royals spin off at the deadline for players that can assist the ballclub in 2013 and beyond. And while the Royals should be open to any deal that makes them better in 2013, 2014, and 2015, for any player (except for Sal Perez), they should be very aggressive in looking to move the following players.

Jeff Francoeur
After having an excellent season last year, and then signing a 2 year extension with the Royals, “Frenchy” is having a fairly miserable year offensively. He still has a dangerous arm though and would bring excellent leadership and presence to a contenting team, particularly if he was in a platoon role. His contract makes him tough to deal, but with Will Myers ready to step in as the everyday right-fielder, the Royals almost have no choice. They should willingly eat most or all of his salary for something marginally useful in order to get Myers regular at-bats. This would immediately make them a better offensive team.

Jonathan Broxton
The signing of Broxton has proven to be a good one. Once Soria went down, nobody really knew what to expect from “Johnny Drama”. But he has been more than serviceable as the closer and is the type of player that will certainly draw interest as the deadline nears. Teams looking for a closer will likely pursue the 1st tier guys before a guy like Broxton so if he gets dealt it will likely not be until right before the deadline.

Jarrod Dyson
This is a player whose name has surprisingly not come up much but would make a lot of sense for the Royals to look to deal, especially if they can’t find a taker for Francoeur. A speedy pinch-running 4th outfielder is a luxury the Royals cannot affor right now, and one that several teams (like the Yankees) could absolutely use. He is not a player that should look to be dealt for just anything, but if someone comes calling, Dayton should be listening hard.

Yuniesky Betancourt
He’s a free agent after this year. If Dayton can obtain a lottery ticket for him, he needs to say yes before the other GM even completely gets the question out of his mouth.

Chris Getz
Getz has been a very serviceable player for the Royals, especially this season. But it is difficult to see them becoming a championship team with him as the everyday 2nd baseman. If the Royals can get anything for him, they should strongly consider moving him.

Jose Mijares
A left-handed situational reliever who is performing well is always a hot commodity at the deadline. Plus he’s a free agent after the season. Plus the Royals have a surplus of bullpen arms. There is no way he should still be on the roster come August 1.

The St. Louis Cardinals returned from the All-Star break in third place in the NL Central, 2.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates, and they had an opportunity to quickly jump back ahead with their first nine games after the break against division teams.

Photo by Chris Reed

Unfortunately, the Cardinals won just two of the first seven of those games heading into play Saturday. They were unceremoniously swept by the Cincinnati Reds and lost two of three to the Milwaukee Brewers before beating the Chicago Cubs 4-1 Friday. That stretch dropped them five games behind the division-leading Reds.

It would be easy to sound the alarms and demand an overhaul at the trade deadline. People say the bullpen is terrible, Jon Jay can no longer hit and the team could use another starting pitcher. However, those problems need only minor solutions, not major changes.

It would be short-sighted to say the Cardinals are a bad team. This team still has as much talent on its roster as any team in the National League. The problem of late has been they just haven’t come up with the key hit.

The Cardinals went 1-5 on their road trip to Cincinnati and Milwaukee to begin the second half of the season, but they were outscored by only seven runs in those six games, and three of those losses were by one run where the Cardinals had men on base in the ninth with a chance to win.

A stretch where a team can’t come up with a timely hit doesn’t mean the team is bad. That is just part of the ebb and flow of a major league season. Too bad we live in a world where every move a player or manager makes is scrutinized to the point where it sounds like people are shocked these players are good enough to be in the big leagues.

For example, Lance Berkman returned to the Cardinals lineup July 14. He went his first 10 at-bats after he came back before he got a base hit.

OK, he went on an 0-for-10 stretch. So what? By the reaction of fans and media folks, one would have thought Berkman was on the verge of announcing his retirement because he could no longer life a baseball bat. Yes, he didn’t go on a rehab assignment, and I’ll give the critics the benefit of the doubt and say maybe that would’ve helped his return. But it was only 10 at-bats. Shoot, Tyler Greene sometimes goes 30 at-bats without more than a hit or two and nobody says anything. Why panic this time?

More than anything, be thankful the pitching has been good so far in the second half. The Cardinals haven’t given up more than four runs in all but one game since the All-Star break.

The Cardinals are still a good baseball team, folks. All it takes is one two-week stretch when the Cardinals win three of every four games, and they will be right back in the thick of the division race.

Sure, the Cardinals still need some help in the bullpen and another starting pitcher would comfort the minds of Cardinals fans everywhere, but the trade deadline is still more than a week away. A lot of moves will happen between now and then, and the Cardinals are likely to make a move of some kind.

So, instead of panicking that the Cardinals, can’t hit, can’t hold a lead can’t beat anybody in their division, how about we sit back and allow the team to play the remainder of its schedule. The Cardinals still have more than 65 games left to play.

It’s not fun to be patient, but the Cardinals are not as bad of a team as people make them out to be. They have a talented team, and with an addition or two through trades they will be likely be playing extremely important, exciting games at the end of the season.

Just wait, it will be fun.

Currently, the Kansas City Royals sit at 29-35 and 5 games out of 1st place in the American League Central. If they can continue streaking, could they actually become buyers at the trade deadline?

Royals fans are all too used to the same story at the trade deadline every year. Let’s see what assets we have that other contending teams might want and see if we can turn those into anything useful for the future. Is it possible, that with the way the Royals have played since ending their 12 game losing streak in April, that they could actually become buyers at the deadline this year? One can only hope. And barring any injuries to position players, the primary need will be Starting Pitching. So as we sit about 6 weeks away from the trade deadline, let’s examine what starting pitchers might be available for the Royals to pursue.

Cole Hamels (Phillies)-The Philadelphia Phillies are currently 9 games out of first place in the National League East. Hamels is a free agent after this season, and all signs point to the Phils not being able to re-sign him. Assuming they don’t agree to an extension before the deadline, and that the Phillies don’t right the ship, you can bet they will be listening to offers.

Zack Greinke (Brewers)-Same situation as above. Milwaukee is 8.5 games out of first place, Greinke is a free agent, and the chances of the Brewers re-signing him are very slim. If they don’t right their own ship, they will be looking to trade him for a similar package of prospects that they traded away to get him from the Royals.

Shaun Marcum (Brewers)-Again, if the Brewers aren’t in contention, they will be looking to move Marcum, who is also a free agent at the end of 2012 and a Kansas City native as well.

Brandon McCarthy (Athletics)-McCarthy is having another very solid season, and will be a free agent after this season. And the Oakland Athletics are going nowhere in 2012, so it would be shocking to see him finish the season in an A’s uniform.

Francisco Liriano (Twins)-While it is not likely the Minnesota Twins would be willing to trade Liriano to a division rival like the Royals, he is also the guy on this list that would command the least in return. There is no denying his ability, so he would be worth a gamble for the Royals or another team in need of starting pitching for the stretch run.

Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)-The Astros are trying to rebuild, and though Rodriguez is signed through 2013, they don’t figure to be contending until after that. So he will likely be made available at this year’s deadline. The left-hander would be a solid addition to the Royals staff not only this year, but next year as well if they could land him.

Ryan Dempster (Cubs)-Dempster has pitched very well this season, but the Chicago Cubs are the worst team in baseball and Dempster will be a free agent after the 2012 season. It is highly unlikely the rebuilding Cubs would be willing to invest in a multi-year deal with the 35 year-old Dempster, so he is bound to be made available.

Matt Garza (Cubs)-Garza will be arbitration-eligible after this season, and a free agent after the 2013 season. Like the Astros, the Cubs don’t figure to be competitive until long after 2013, so they might as well move him while he has value.

So as you can see, there should be no shortage of capable starting pitchers available at the deadline. And the Royals have no shortage of desirable prospects to deal away. It would sure be nice to have the shoe on the other foot for a change.

The Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline is still a couple of months away, but the St. Louis Cardinals have to be contemplating the direction this 2012 season will take. And the way things have gone so far, it may not be an easy decision.

It is fair to say there is no way the Cardinals will be sellers, even with the absurd rash of injuries they have endured. A team that sells is a team that has no hope to make it to the postseason and a few expensive, desirable players that are nearing the end of a contract. This does not describe the Cards in any way. While they may have a handful of big contracts due to come off the books at the end of this season, it does not appear like they are contracts the team would be able to move without eating significant money and obtaining an upgrade at the same time. Plus, the Cardinals are still in second place in a weak division—far from out of it.

The Chicago Cubs are already 10 games out of first and are well under .500 after a lengthy losing streak last week. But they’re in full rebuild mode, and everyone knows it. They are sellers. The same goes for the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins. These teams need to shed payroll, build prospects, and plan for contention years down the road. The Cardinals are still good enough to win now, and are positioned to win in the near future as well.

So will the Cards be buyers at the deadline? That’s where the tough call comes in. They do have needs: bullpen depth, starting pitching that can eat innings, veteran bench help, stability at second base and center field. But they have a problem: many of those holes can be filled by guys they already have on their roster; unfortunately those guys are currently on the disabled list.

This isn’t a newsflash to anyone who has been paying attention. The Cards’ DL looks like their active roster, and their active roster looks like their Triple A roster.

And therein lies the problem: Do the Cardinals stand pat and bet on injured players not only returning to the lineup but also returning to form and contributing to a team committed to winning now? Or do they try to acquire talent (at the expense of prospects, mind you) to keep the team up in the near-term, and deal with extra players if and when they have to? Let’s not forget the calendar just flipped to June. There’s no way this team has seen the last of the injury bug. If Matt Holliday or Rafael Furcal or Yadier Molina goes down, this team is screwed…with a capital F.

Things were a lot different last year. When dealing with ineffectiveness—such as the Cards did with Ryan Franklin, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, et al.—and knowing they had depth, moving guys like Colby Rasmus to acquire the role players needed for success was easier. But the Cardinals are short on depth right now. The depth is in the starting lineup. And the minor leagues are nearly tapped, at least of guys who are close enough to ready for the big leagues. Who could they possibly move at this point?

Players will be available come July but the Cards must be sensible in their dealings. The injuries this year have been of epic proportions. Maybe karma has come to collect after an otherworldly 2011. Or maybe this is just a test, like 10.5 games out in late August was. Hope the Cardinals studied this year as well as they did then.

The day has finally arrived. Pitchers and Catchers are required to report to Spring Training Saturday with the first official workouts of the preseason scheduled for Sunday. Anticipation is high, and so are expectations. The St. Louis Cardinals’ 2012 season and the defense of their World Series Championship begin now. But don’t forget some of the lessons that 2011 team taught us.

Just a few days into the 2011 Spring Training campaign, the Cards lost Adam Wainwright for the season. Wainwright was the team’s de facto ace. He looked like a lock for better than 200 IP, better than 200 K, and another sub-3.00 ERA but it vanished just like that. With him, the Cardinals were a team that looked to be in the mix atop a crowded NL Central. Without him, well…how does a team replace that kind of production and become a winner?

By the end of October 2011, it was a distant memory.

Just a few games into the 2011 regular season, Ryan Franklin looked to be finished. The Cards’ closer looked like anything but; he was as ineffective as ineffective could be. It wasn’t long—though many would probably argue it was still too long—before he was benched, and then sent packing before the season had reached the All Star Break. So not only had the Cards ventured into the season without their ace, but they then were going through a revolving door in the ninth inning too.

But by the end of October 2011, that also seemed like eons ago.

Just before the trade deadline, GM John Mozeliak moved the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, two lefty relievers in Brian Tallet and Trever Miller, and the perennially underperforming PJ Walters to the Toronto Blue Jays for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson. Over the next couple of weeks, Mozeliak would also sign journeyman lefty Arthur Rhodes and trade minor leaguer Alex Castellanos to the LA Dodgers for Rafael Furcal. In all, the Cards turned over six players on their roster and, at the time, only one (Rzepczynski) was under team control beyond the end of the season. Talk of “win-now mode” ran in parallel with suggestions of not getting enough for Rasmus and betting on aging, short-term talent.

Does anyone want do-overs on any of those moves now?

On August 25, 2011 the Cardinals were 10.5 games out of the playoffs. On October 28, 2011 they became World Series Champions.

The lessons here are plenty. Injuries happen, but they are not the end of the world. Don’t give up on the team because of one loss, whether on the field or off it. Also, don’t give up on a team until they are truly, completely, 100% eliminated. Trust that the people getting paid to make big, difficult decisions about the team actually know what they are doing. Sometimes players work out, sometimes they don’t…but they all deserve a chance to make it happen. Baseball has no clock—so until they make their 27th out, any team has a chance…even down to their last strike (twice). Unless your house is on fire or a family member is dying, never ever EVER leave (or turn off) the game early. Because it ain’t over until it’s over, and anything is possible, and as long as they mathematically have a chance, the St. Louis Cardinals can repeat as World Champions in 2012. After what we all witnessed last year, no argument to the contrary holds water.

It begins now.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter at @birdbrained.

The St. Louis Cardinals got Jake Westbrook at the 2010 trade deadline, and he performed well enough down the stretch to earn a 2-year contract with a mutual option on a third year.  Last season he did not perform like the 2010 stretch Westbrook, though to be fair he did pitch to his career averages.  What do we want to to see from Jake in 2012?  More 2010 Westbrook, and less 2011 Westbrook, of course.  How does he get there?

Westbrook historically allows a lot of base runners.  Last year he allowed at least a runner per inning in his victories, and in his no-decisions and losses it was closer to 2 runners per inning.  If Jake was not on his game it was obvious early; he only threw 43 innings in his 9 losses, and allowed almost as many hits, walks, and HR as he did in the 75 innings he threw during his 12 victories.  Opposing hitters hammered him to the tune of a .368 BABIP in games he lost; in his wins, his BABIP was 100 points lower.

OK, if he pitches to less contact he’ll be more successful in 2012, right?  It’s not that simple.  In his 2011 losses, his K/9 was actually higher than in his wins (5.2 to 4.7), and in his no-decisions it was even higher.  The year before they were virtually identical (5.3 to 5.5), although again his K/9 in no-decisions was higher.  Striking out more hitters so there are fewer balls in play does not seem to be a key to Westbrook’s success.

So what can he change in order to return closer to his 2010 Cardinal form?  Take a look at his Fangraphs page, specifically the pitch type section, for a possible answer.  After the trade to St Louis Westbrook essentially ditched his cutter.  He threw a fastball more frequently, threw his slider marginally more frequently, and threw his change-up marginally less frequently than he had while with Cleveland earlier in the year.  In 2011, he threw his fastball slightly less frequently and his change-up with the same frequency as he had the second half of 2010.  He made two major changes:  he threw fewer sliders than in any year since 2007, and he threw more cutters than in any season ever.*

One has to wonder why the drastic change.  Arm trouble?  Inability to get a feel for the pitch that persisted most of the season?  A lack of feel would make sense, because his slider got hammered (based on Fangraphs linear weights) throughout 2011 and no sane pitcher would consistently throw a pitch they knew could cause whiplash while watching it leave the home plate area.

It would seem the key to Westbrook’s success is his slider.  It has been a crucial pitch for him throughout his career and had served him well up to last season.  As we prepare for pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training 2012, we need to watch Westbrook’s progress with his slider.  If he has a feel for it, look for 2010-type performances this season, with 2011 game play a distant (and hopefully rapidly fading) memory.  If he can’t find it again, maybe we can get Roy Oswalt back on the phone.

*Some of the change in fastball/cutter percentage may be due to refinement in the pitch f/x systems ability to detect the difference, however the change in how often he threw a slider cannot be explained away by a measurement software change.

Mike Metzger is a baseball writer based out of San Diego.  He also blogs about the Padres.  Follow him on Twitter.