Last week, the Kansas City Royals announced their schedule of promotions and giveaways for 2012. Items like a George Brett Mini Pine Tar Bat, a Royals All-Star Garden Gnome and a Buck O’Neil bobblehead are fantastic giveaways. What Royals fan doesn’t want a Royals Garden Gnome?

However, I can’t help but think the Royals are missing out on some great promotions for their long-suffering fans. The 2012 Royals promotions are set, but here are some promotions I believe would get “butts in the seats” at Kauffman Stadium in future years:

Eric Hosmer Amish Warrior Bobblehead Night: The first 20,000 fans get a bobblehead of the Royals first baseman in Amish livery and carrying a baseball bat. Fans who wear Amish clothing to the game have a chance to meet Eric Hosmer. One lucky female fan gets a candlelit Amish style dinner with Hosmer (the winner will have to help cook the dinner). One lucky male fan will get to hang out with Hosmer during an Amish barn raising (old-fashioned carpentry skills a plus).

Don Denkinger Bobblehead Night (vs. The St. Louis Cardinals): The first 10,000 Cardinals fans get a Cardinals version Don Denkinger bobblehead. When you press a button, Denkinger’s arms fly out and says, “Safe!” and “Get over ’85. You’ve won two World Series since then!” The Cardinals Denkinger bobblehead wears glasses.

The first 10,000 Royals Fans get a Royals version Don Denkinger bobblehead. When you press a button, Denkinger’s arms fly out and says, “Safe!” and “Todd Worrell’s foot was off the bag! Duh!” The Royals Denkinger bobblehead does not wear glasses.

Yuniesky Betancourt Voodoo Doll Night: The first 20,000 fans get a Yuinesky Betancourt Voodoo doll of their favorite Kansas City Royal. Voodoo pins will not be provided since fans would likely use them to stab the real Yuni Betancourt.

Marry A Kardashian Night: The first 10,000 adult male fans get to marry the Kardashian of their choice for 72 seconds, with a marriage license and divorce papers as proof of matrimony and divorce. The first 10,000 adult female fans get the booklet, “The Kardashian Way To Get And Keep A Man For 72 Days.” The Royals Player of the Game gets to marry the Kardashian of their choice for 72 minutes. God have mercy on their soul.

Salute To The All-American Girls Professional Baseball League (vs. The San Francisco Giants): Come celebrate with the Royals as they pay tribute to the AAGPBL and their place in baseball history. Players from both teams will don the uniforms of Kalamazoo Lassies and the Grand Rapids Chicks. It’s a night of fun and Major League baseball players wearing skirts you don’t want to miss.

Downton Abbey Night At The K (vs. the Tampa Bay Rays): The hit PBS series Downton Abbey visits the K for a night of Edwardian excitement. The first 15,000 fans get a Lady Edith Crawley bobblehead. Robert, Earl of Grantham (played by Hugh Bonneville) will throw out the first pitch. Players on both teams will wear 1912 era baseball uniforms during the game. Between innings, Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham (played by Dame Maggie Smith), will deliver witty one-liners about the Royals and the Rays on the CrownVision. Fans who dress up as their favorite Downton Abbey characters have the chance to win Royals and Downton Abbey prizes. And during the 7th inning stretch, Carson the Butler (played by Jim Carter) will “sing” Take Me Out To The Ballgame. It’s a night of baseball and Downton Abbey at the K!

Bob Davis Drinking Game Mug: The first 20,000 fans get a 20 ounce Royals/Bob Davis mug to fill with the beverage of their choice. Whenever Royals announcer Bob Davis gets excited about a routine play like a ground ball or a called second strike, you take a drink. (The Kansas City Royals remind you to drink responsibly. Only play the Bob Davis drinking game for one inning per game for the sake of your health.)

Billy Butler Country Breakfast Night At The K: The first 20,000 fans get a limited edition copy of Billy Butler‘s book, “Are You Going To Eat That? Country Breakfast With Billy Butler.” The book has recipes of Billy Butler’s favorite breakfast time meals and gets the ringing endorsement of husky Royals players Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares.

Dollar Moose Tacos Night At The K: In honor of Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, the Royals will feature one dollar moose tacos. Royals players Jeff Francour, Jonathan Broxton and Manager Ned Yost harvested the moose for the tacos so fans can enjoy one of Mike Moustakas‘ favorite delicacies.

Ladies’ Royals Powder Blue Tube Top: The first 10,000 female fans can support their favorite team (among other things) with a Royals powder blue tube top. Get your 70′s on and be the hit of People of Wal-Mart.com with this stylish and tasteful stretch Royals powder blue tube top (in the interest of equality, male cross-dressing fans may also get a tube top by request).

Pretty good ideas, if I say so myself. If anyone in the Royals promotions department reads this and likes what they see, let’s get together and we’ll do lunch. I’ll be waiting.

Today at the St. Louis Cardinals Winter Warm Up, a slow morning turned rapid-fire with Matt Adams, Brandon Dickson, Daniel Descalso, and J.C. Romero all taking turns in front of reporters in a short span of time.

Adams and Dickson will enter Spring Training trying to break camp with the big league club, having built reputations as important pieces of the Cardinal farm system already. Descalso, after making a name for himself in 2011 as a versatile player whether starting or coming off the bench, expects to be in the thick of the competition for the second base job. And Romero comes to the Cards looking for redemption both personally and professionally.

The afternoon promises to be exciting as well. Former manager (weird) Tony LaRussa has been in the house all morning signing autographs and talking with fans. But he’s not the only star from the 2011 World Series Champions making the rounds today. Jason Motte, Jake Westbrook, Jon Jay, Jaime Garcia, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday are among the big leaguers still scheduled to appear. A formidable lineup indeed.

Not to be outdone, the Cardinal alumni will be out in force today as well. Tom Lawless, Chris Duncan, Danny Cox, Todd Worrell, and Tom Henke are just some of the former Redbirds scheduled to appear. And the Cards’ radio broadcast team of Mike Shannon and John Rooney will also be entertaining fans this afternoon.

But the biggest drama to unfold today may be the resolution of just which number new Cardinal Carlos Beltran will wear. Historically, Beltran has worn #15 and on last year’s Cardinal team, that number belonged to Rafael Furcal. Even though Beltran has a little more tenure as a Major Leaguer (which may normally sway a player to give up his number), Furcal has obviously been a Cardinal longer. And yesterday, the Cardinal shortstop told reporters he was not giving up #15…after all, he did win a World Championship with the number on his back. Apparently that information made it to Beltran because last night he tweeted (@carlosbeltran15) a request for input on what his new number should be. So perhaps Beltran will make his decision before his scheduled Winter Warm Up appearance Monday, or maybe he and Furcal can come to some kind of agreement on a swap. Or maybe someone will solicit a decision from former Cardinal Jim Edmonds (@Jedmonds15), clearly the franchise’s most famous #15 from the last decade.

Help me decide 3,8,13,40,43????

January 14, 2012 9:33 pm via Twitter for iPhoneReplyRetweetFavorite

@carlosbeltran15

Carlos Beltran

Oh, the suspense. Stay tuned.

Chris Reed is covering the 2012 Winter Warm Up all weekend for I-70 Baseball. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

Entering the bottom of the ninth inning on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh, Fernando Salas was called on to protect a slim one run lead. He had been successful on 22 of 25 chances so far, and the Cardinals really needed him to convert number 23. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Salas gave up a solo home run for his fourth blown save of the year. Ironically, the Cardinals would lose the game two innings later when newly acquired Arthur Rhodes also gave up a solo home run.

Now trailing the Milwaukee Brewers by 7 games with just 39 left to play, it is only natural to start asking questions about how this can happen. When you do, one statistic screams for attention – this game was the 21st blown save of the year for the Cardinals bullpen. If the Cardinals had converted just half of those into wins, they would have a 1 1/2 game lead over the Brewers, rather than the 7 game deficit they now face.

Lets take a closer look at these blown saves, and see what we can learn.

When you look at how the blown saves are distributed, Fernando Salas is suddenly looking like a pretty reliable closer. Throw in the fact that he is also 3 for 3 in holds, and we might need to look elsewhere for those extra 10 wins.

So, how does Fernando Salas stack up to other closers in Cardinals history – and what about all those blown saves ?

Whitey Herzog (1982-1989)

Looking at bullpen save data too much before the Whitey Herzog era doesn’t make a lot of sense. Relief pitchers were used much differently than they are today. Even in the early parts of Herzog’s time, closers were routinely called on for multiple inning saves. Bruce Sutter averaged nearly 2 innings per appearance for much of his time in St. Louis. By the time Todd Worrell had taken over, that number was closer to 1 1/2 innings per appearance.

Let’s take a look at the bullpen efficiency during Whitey Herzog’s time as manager.

The first thing to notice is that successful teams (1982, 1985, 1987) sure seem to have a lot of save opportunities. More than that, they also convert a high percentage of them into wins. That doesn’t bode terribly well for the 2011 group, does it ?

Another interesting item are the number of blown saves from Bruce Sutter and Todd Worrell, two of the most highly regarded relievers in Cardinals history. Even in good years, you could still expect for each of them to fail to convert around 10 saves. Fernando Salas’ 22 out of 26 save opportunities (85%) this year is looking better all the time.

Joe Torre (1990-1995)

The Joe Torre era, including the transitional year when Whitey Herzog resigned, is among some of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. One look at the bullpen save rates will tell you all you need to know about them, and why they were so frustrating.

Lee Smith

Oh, the save opportunities were there, in abundance. And how good was Lee Smith ?

If it wasn’t Lee Smith, what were the problems during the Torre years ? The games that Lee Smith didn’t get in. It’s as simple as that.

By the time of the Big Man, the closer was a single inning reliever, and used nearly every time there was a save opportunity. And Smith was a machine, converting at a rate that often approached 90%. If you subtract his appearances from the totals, the other relievers were about 50/50 when taking the ball in the late innings.

But even that doesn’t account for the dismal performance in the era. It was those other games that were not save opportunties. Maybe if Torre had a more productive offense, or didn’t leave pitchers like Jose DeLeon in one inning too long, he might have had some greater success than he did.
Tony La Russa (1996-present)

16 years of the Tony La Russa era are hard to distill down into a single metric, but that doesn’t mean we can’t try.

The two best seasons under La Russa (2004-2005) have some of the highest save chances combined with the fewest failures. That would seem to be a good recipe for a championship club. One of those teams went to the World Series, and the other got as far as a legendary Albert Pujols home run off Brad Lidge before falling just short of another trip to the fall classic.

We can thank Jason Isringhausen for a lot of that success, but at the same time we should also praise his supporting cast. When other relievers were called on to make saves, they didn’t disappoint. Even in 2006, when the bullpen efficiency was beginning to trend the wrong direction, they were good enough to win it all.

But there is some bad news in the numbers as well. You can find quite a few seasons with 30 or more blown saves – far too many to have any success. And this brings us back to Fernando Salas because the 2011 team was on a pace to dwarf all of those teams with a new dubious record, all to their own. That is until Salas took over, perhaps aided by an untimely injury to Eduardo Sanchez. The kid that we saw saving games with an almost robotic consistency in Memphis is learning how to do the same thing in the big leagues.

Is Fernando Salas a closer ? Absolutely.

Fernando Salas is not the problem with the 2011 Cardinals. The problem is the young man not getting enough save chances. And a big part of that was the manager being too slow to turn the late innings over to the young reliever. If Salas had been the closer on opening day, and assuming his save percentage would remain the same, the Cardinals might have 13 more wins than they do right now, and the Brewers fans would be the ones heading for the ledge.

One last observation, before it gets forgotten. Until Ryan Franklin’s struggles in 2011, he had been an extremely effective closer. Like Salas in 2011, he wasn’t the problem for the 2009-2010 Cardinals. It was too few opportunities because the team had fallen behind and failed to rally late in games. Ryan Franklin had been a very good closer on a team that should have played better than it did.

Bob Netherton covers Cardinals history for i70baseball.com and writes at On the Outside Corner. You may follow Bob on Twitter here or on Facebook here.

On this night, the fifth place Cardinals would play the West Division leading San Diego Padres in the second game of a four game series. Even though the Cardinals were in fifth place in the East, they were only 6 games out of first. Both divisions were up for grabs. The Cubs would catch fire later in summer and win the East while the Padres would hold on and win the West. None of that mattered right now, the Cardinals and Padres had a game to play.

The Cardinals were in the middle of a rough transition. Gone was Keith Hernandez, one of the best players in recent years. Terry Pendleton had yet to make his major league debut. The Cardinals pitching staff was decimated by injuries, especially among the starters. At this point, Danny Cox, Dave LaPoint and Bob Forsch were all injured and unavailable. Over the course of the next week, Kurt Kepshire would make his major league debut and Rick Ownbey (part of the Hernandez trade) would make his Cardinals debut. Neither would make much of an impact. Whitey Herzog was so desperate for starters that he was using Ken Dayley and Neil Allen, just to have somebody take the mound in the first inning.

A Promising Rookie

Rick Horton

Younger fans may know Rick as one of the Cardinal announcers on Fox Sports Midwest. A very pleasant announcer with an ever present smile, Rick has become a very good broadcaster. He often speaks of his time pitching, always downplaying his abilities – especially his 82mph fastball. While that may be what White Sox and Dodgers fans remember, Cardinal fans know differently. Rick Horton was a very good pitcher for his first four years in St. Louis. And I mean very good. He didn’t have the flair of Joaquin Andujar. He didn’t throw hard like Ken Dayley or Todd Worrell. He couldn’t dominate game after game like John Tudor or Danny Cox. But Rick Horton was still a very good pitcher. He was crafty with a capital C. In those four seasons, Horton would put up a 24-12 record with an ERA that stayed under 3 runs per game, except when excessive mop up duty inflated it just a bit. He was used mainly out of the bullpen, but would be the occasional spot starter when needed. Tonight was one of those nights.

The 24 year old lefty made the team out of spring training. Up to this point, he had been used mostly in mop-up assignments. While not the most glamorous role, they gave him time to develop his major league game. At the same time, those appearances gave Whitey Herzog and Mike Roarke time to evaluate his talent. And there was plenty to be happy about. Horton would get his first start on June 12 and combine with Neil Allen for a nice win against the Phillies, picking up his second win of his short career. He would be hit a bit harder on his next start against the Mets, but together with Bruce Sutter, they would hold the Mets off for another win.

Rick would suffer his first loss on June 24 against the Cubs, although he pitched well enough to win. He had the bad fortune of facing Rick Sutcliffe in the beginning of his 16-1 run to his Cy Young Award (to go with his 1979 Rookie of the Year). Sutcliffe would shut out the Cardinals, striking out 14. Not a lot that the young man could do against that kind of performance. Very quietly though, Horton was putting together a nice season. His ERA to date was 1.75.

June 24 – St. Louis at San Diego

Eric Show

Rick Horton (3-1) would face the right hander Eric Show (7-5). Show was the Woody Williams of the 80s. Fairly durable, Show would throw a lot of innings but not a lot of strikeouts. He would win 15 games twice, and 16 in his best season, 1988. But he would never have that monster year that we thought he was capable of producing. How would he do tonight ?

Show was impressive from the first pitch. He would strike out the first two batters he faced. Willie McGee would end the inning grounding out to long time Dodger, Steve Garvey at first.

Although not as dominating, Horton was just as effective in his half inning, getting two fly outs and striking out Garvey to end the inning.

The Cardinal bats would wake up in the second inning. Darrell Porter would lead off with a double. He was unable to advance when Steve Braun flied out to left (Steve, you are supposed to hit the ball to the other side of the outfield with a runner in scoring position and less than 2 outs). Mike Jorgensen would single, but Porter was held up at third. With Art Howe at the plate, Jorgensen is caught stealing in a broken hit and run. It was so bad that Jorgensen isn’t even credited with a caught stealing. Howe then flies out to end the inning.

In the San Diego half of the second inning, Horton shuts down the Padres. The ball never left the infield. When Horton was on, he could nip the corners. With his ability to change the speed, hitters never got a good swing on anything near the plate. So far, Horton was in very good form tonight.

In the third, the Cardinals would put a run on the scoreboard. Ozzie Smith, hitting eighth at this point in his career, leads off with a walk. Horton bunts Smith to second. Lonnie Smith follows that with a single, easily scoring Smith from second. Show would limit the damage, but the Cardinals had an early 1-0 lead. Maybe that would be enough with the way Horton is pitching.

The Padres third inning was much like their second, nothing leaving the infield. Three up and three down. One time through the order and Horton retired all nine.

Show settles down in the fourth. Steve Braun would fly out. Mike Jorgensen would single, but Art Howe would hit into an around the horn double play: 5-4-3. In the Padres fourth, nothing. Tony Gwynn and Steve Garvey finally got something out of the infield, but the ball fell safely into the gloves of Cardinal outfielders.

Adding On

The Cards would stir up trouble in the fifth. Ozzie Smith would ground out to start the inning, but Ricj Horton would follow that with a walk. Walking the opposing pitcher is always a bad idea, and it generally comes back to haunt the other team. Lonnie Smith would fail to advance the runner, flying out to right. Tommy Herr would single, bringing free swinging Willie McGee to the plate. Show would throw a pitch to the backstop, moving the runners to second and third. Willie McGee would would single to left, scoring both Horton and Herr. McGee would advance to second when Carmelo Martinez misplayed the ball. Darrell Porter would end the inning with a strikeout, but the Cardinals now led 3-0.

In the bottom of the fifth, the Padres would get their first base runner when the just victimized Carmelo Martinez leads off with a walk. He is quickly dispatched when catcher Terry Kennedy hits the ball back to the pitcher and Horton starts a nifty 1-6-3 double play. Not only had Horton been getting it done with his arm and bat, now he is showing off a bit of leather. Kevin McReynolds would ground out to end the inning.

And On

More trouble for Show in the sixth inning. With one out, Mike Jorgensen would walk and Art Howe would hit a single. Ozzie Smith would single home Jorgensen. Once again, Horton lays down a good bunt, moving the runners to second and third. The young lefty was putting on quite a clinic tonight. Lonnie Smith would follow with a single, scoring Howe. Ozzie Smith would be thrown out in a close play at home. The Cardinals now led 5-0.

Absolutely nothing was happening in the bottom of the sixth. Another solid Horton inning. A pop up to short, a pop up to second and a ground out to short. Three batters, nothing leaving the infield. Through six, no Padre hits.

Andy Hawkins was in to replace Show, who had been lifted for a pinch hitter in the previous inning. Hawkins did what Show had not been able to do – retire the Cardinals in order. The bottom of the seventh was a repeat of the sixth. Three Padre batters, two infield grounders and a strikeout. Nothing left the infield. Through seven innings, Cardinals 5, Padres 0 – and no Padre hits.

The Cardinals went fairly quickly in the eighth. Two singles, a fly out and rarity: Ozzie Smith grounding into a double play.

Horton Hears a Hit

Kevim McReynolds

Rick Horton takes his no hitter into the eighth. He strikes out Carmelo Martinez and gets Terry Kennedy to pop out to third. With two outs, Kevin McReynolds ends Horton’s no hitter with a clean double. A disappointed Horton gets Graig Nettles to ground out to short, preserving the shutout.

The Cardinals go quietly in the top of the ninth. A very tired Rick Horton takes the mound, working on a one hit shutout. He gets Garry Templeton to ground out to his opposite number for the first out. Pinch hitter Kurt Bevacqua walks. Leadoff man Alan Wiggins would get the Padres second hit, with Bavacqua stopping at second base. Tony Gwynn, one of the games greatest hitters, would end things by hitting into a 4-6-3 double play.

What an amazing performance by the young lefty. A 2 hit shutout against the West leading Padres – a team that would go on to the World Series. Horton was four outs from throwing a no hitter in his fourth major league start. Only five balls would get out of the infield, the two hits and three harmless fly balls. This was as masterful a game as Cardinals fans had seen in a very long time.

The Rest of the Story

Horton would finish his rookie season with a 9-4 record, posting a modest ERA of 3.44. He would be equally impressive in the next three seasons, going 3-2/2.91 in ’85, 4-3/2.24 in ’86 and 8-3/3.82 in ’87 (with 67 appearances, 61 in relief).

Horton would be traded to the White Sox, along with speedster Lance Johnson after the 1987 season for Jose DeLeon. DeLeon was an amazing talent that no pitching coach had been able to figure out. The Cardinals would soon be added to that list as DeLeon gave us 4 1/2 frustrating years. Horton failed to impress the White Sox and he was dealt to the Dodgers in a last minute deal before the end of post season eligibility. Horton would return to the Cardinals in 1989 and retire at the end of the 1990 season.

Lance Johnson would go on to be one of the better hitters in the American League. He would routinely lead the league in triples as well as stealing 30 or more bases a year. That’s one we sure wish we had back.

The next time you hear Rick Horton talking about his pitching days, know that he is being modest. Horton was one heck of a pitcher. And on this night he almost pitched his way into the Cardinal record books.

1985 World Series

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals

Game 6 – October 26, 1985

Location: Royals Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

Attendance: 41,628

Recap: This game is remembered for “The Call,” an infamous blown call by umpire Don Denkinger in the ninth. But few fans now remember another blown call that went the Cardinals’ way: in the fourth inning, Royals second baseman Frank White was called out attempting to steal second base, even though replays showed he beat the tag (the next batter hit a single, meaning White may have scored if the call had been correct). The Cardinals scored the first run of the game in the eighth, and with a 1-0 lead the Cardinals progressed to the bottom of the ninth with the championship hanging in the balance. Kansas City manager Dick Howser sent pinch hitter Jorge Orta to the plate to lead off the inning against Todd Worrell. Orta hit a squibbler down the first base line to Jack Clark, and Clark flipped the ball to Worrell covering first. Worrell beat Orta to the bag by a step, but umpire Denkinger called Orta safe. The next batter, Steve Balboni, hit a routine pop-up in foul territory, but the catch was bungled by Clark and catcher Darrell Porter. Balboni then hit a single, advancing Orta to first. When Jim Sundberg tried to bunt the runners over, a quick-thinking Worrell threw to third and got the lead runner (Orta), leaving a runner on first and second with one out. But Porter allowed a passed ball, and the runners advance. Pinch hitter Hal McRae was walked to set up the double play. With the bases loaded, pinch hitter Dane Iorg hit a single to right. Onix Concepcion, running for Balboni, scored, and Sunberg slid around Porter’s tag for the winning run.

Line Score:

TEAM R H E

St. Louis 1 5 0

Kansas City 2 10 0

Winning pitcher: Dan Quisenberry

Losing pitcher: Todd Worrell

Notables: The Royals piled on 10 hits in the game, despite scoring only two runs; pinch hitter Brian Harper knocked in the only run for the Cardinals; The Cardinals’ Danny Cox and Kansas City’s Charlie Leibrandt started the game, and both pitched extremely well: Cox gave up no earned runs and struck out eight in seven innings, while Leibrandt gave up a single run in 7.2 innings; according to reports, a bad coincidence added insult to injury for the Cardinals: in preparation of their pending victory, the team’s locker room was filled with champagne on ice – and the champagne was waiting for them when the Cardinals walked into the locker room after the loss.

Tomorrow: A recap of Game 7.

Matt Kelsey is a Royals writer and the content editor for I-70 Baseball. He can be reached at mattkelsey@i70baseball.com.

Outside the city limits of Kansas City, the 1985 World Series is primarily remembered by a single play: “The Call.” Anyone reading this blog knows the well documented history of Don Denkinger and how his safe call in the bottom of the ninth of Game Six altered baseball history. The magnitude of the play was documented in this archived MLB.com article on the fateful October 26^th.

“One call, that’s all. When fans reflect on the all-Missouri World Series between St. Louis and Kansas City in 1985, first base umpire Don Denkinger is certain to be a focal point in the conversation.”

Emotions ran wild that night. I’m not sure anyone involved could predict how fresh the passion would still feel a quarter of a century later. This offseason the St. Louis Cardinals held a Baseball Writer’s Banquet, with Denkinger in attendance as a guest, seated next to Todd Worrell. I can only imagine what that conversation was like.

Joe Posnanski was in attendance and recalled the scene in a Sports Illustrated article, “When he was introduced at the banquet, he was booed. I suppose an announcer might call them “good natured boos.” I’m not a boo-ologist. They sounded like regular boos to me.

“There was quiet while Denkinger spoke and the quiet followed by polite applause — everyone could admire the man for appearing. But as Denkinger walked out of the Hall, I heard this exchange:

“It’s nice that he came.”

“Whatever. He still blew the World Series for us.”

The fact is throughout history the fans and media have searched for scapegoats to give salvation to their favorite players. What is truly lost when depicting a seven game series on one call are the managers, players, and plays made.

Throughout the years fans have attempted to quantify just how costly Denkinger’s mistake was. Fellow I-70 Baseball blogger Aaron Stilley produced a well researched and interesting piece about quantifying “The Call.” For everyone involved though, it seems a play like this can’t be put into numbers. It’s an unquantifiable spark; I’m not sure how to measure momentum or confidence.

Momentum is a huge factor in every sport. Baseball provides a unique tension in between plays, in between pitches, which especially in the postseason can’t be matched. It allows everyone involved to reset and hold their breath in anticipation for what’s to come. The great thing about it, is just when you think the tension, or anxiety, is about to boil over the top, somehow it is delayed. The pitching coach takes a quick scamper to the mound, a batter steps out with dust in his eye, a pitcher steps off the slab to compose himself.

Ballplayers are taught from an early age the importance of hustle. “It’s a game of inches,” they say. The best players, or at least most respected, are those who always run out a ground ball and always back up the play.

Game Five of the 2010 ALCS between the Rangers and Yankees provides us a perfect example. The Rangers trailed the Yankees 3-2 in the top of the sixth. Nelson Cruz is on first with one dead. Ian Kinsler hits a deep fly ball to center field, forcing Curtis Granderson to range deep into the gap. Cruz tags at first and easily beats Granderson’s throw, a fairly unnoticed play by those in attendance and watching from home.

In reality, it resulted in ‘the spark’ I spoke about previously. Next, Joe Girardi calls for an intentional walk to left-handed David Murphy, who had taken A.J. Burnett deep earlier in the year. Bengie Molina steps in and torches Burnett’s gas can with a dinger landing in the left field seats. It put the game out of reach, maybe the series.

Who’s to blame?

Surely Yankees fans blame Burnett. The New York media will second guess Girardi’s decision to walk Murphy and leave Burnett in to face Molina. Molina will get all the praise in Arlington, but in reality none of it would have ever happened if Cruz hadn’t tagged up.

The fact is a baseball game, even more so a series, can’t be measured on one play. Baseball is a game of constantly moving parts. So many elements go into a single play. When those plays are intertwined with the aspects of the play’s before and after the exercise in second guessing becomes futile. It is an infamous pastime for fans and the media alike, but any ball player will tell you playing the “what if?” is a sure path to an exit from the game.

This sort of perspective shift is what drives fans and the media. A devoted passion to the ballclub is what creates these scapegoats. Fans have invested their emotions so much when things don’t go their way; someone is needed to take the blame (see Steve Bartman, Jeffery Maier, Bill Buckner). These feelings go against everything players are taught.

You constantly hear coaches or broadcasters talking about how players who have made an error ‘need to move on, because the next one is coming to them.’ It takes me back to an adage I always remembered thinking about as a hitter. One’s for me, one’s for you (the pitcher), and one’s for Blue. In other words, I’m gonna get three strikes, one will be a pitcher’s pitch, one will be a boarderline call from the umpire, and one will be a pitch to hit. Obviously every at-bat is different, but this was something which helped keep my mind right as a hitter.

Human error has always been a part of the game; this is one of the things that makes baseball great. ESPN’s ‘Outside the Lines’ conducted a study of 184 games from June 29 to July 11 this season and reviewed every call made. They determined, “Of the close plays, 13.9 percent remained too close to call, with 65.7 percent confirmed as correct and 20.4 percent confirmed as incorrect.” Although it is a small sample size, this research suggests umpires miss one out of every five bang-bang plays, or an average of one and a half per game.

Denkinger may have missed the call, but odds are it wasn’t the only missed call in Game Six, let alone the entire series.

What we are left with 25 years later, is a World Series cadaver to dissect. Even though the series lasted seven games, statistically the Royals dominated. Kansas City outhit the Cardinals 68 to 40, outscored them 28-13. The Royals swiped five more bags and had an OPS over 200 points higher.
Meanwhile Royals hurlers walked ten less batters, resulting in 14 less earned runs allowed than St. Louis. Kansas City posted an insane WHIP at 0.935 over the series compared to the Cards’ 1.565, all while using five less pitchers than St. Louis needed.

So who deserves the accolades or the blame?

Royals fans will tell you the reason they won the Series was starting pitching headlined by Bret Saberhagen and timely hitting.

Cardinals fans will blame Denkinger.

Willie McGee went off in 1985 (.353/.384/.503, 26 2B, 18 3B, 10 HR, 56 SB), earning the NL MVP. McGee led off in the series, followed by Ozzie Smith and Tom Herr in Whitey Herzog’s lineup. Smith hit .276, with 54 RBIs, 70 runs, and 31 SB, while Herr produced a .302 batting average with 110 RBIs, 97 runs, and 31 Sb. A formidable top of the lineup which was good enough for 101 regular season wins.

In the ’85 Series the three combined for only 13 hits, five runs, two RBIs, two stolen bases and one home run. The lack of production from the hitters the Cardinals relied on all season was obvious. Why not blame Willie, Ozzie, and Tommy?

Todd Worrell was the pitcher who got tagged for the infamous loss. Worrell had Jorge Orta in a 0-2 hole, but failed to put him away. Instead he caught too much of the plate which allowed Orta’s ground ball to Jack Clark. Worrell went 0-2 to the next hitter, Steve Balboni, as well. Once again Worrell made an 0-2 mistake and allowed a single to center. Eventually, Worrell fell behind Dane Iorg and gave up another rocket to right to seal the deal. Why not blame Worrell?

During the bottom of the ninth first baseman Jack Clark had a play on a foul pop-up, but misplayed the ball. Clark later admitted it was a play which he should have made. He was still seething from Denkinger’s call a few moments prior. Later in the inning with runners on first and second base, catcher Darrell Porter mishandled a Worrell delivery, causing a passed ball. The runners moved up to second and third, forcing Whitey Herzog to intentionally walk Hal McRae. Why not blame Clark and Porter?

John Tudor, the Cardinal’s ace, pitched well in his first two appearances in the series. In his Game Seven performance though, he couldn’t make it out of the third inning. Tudor walked four and gave up five earned runs, including Darryl Motley’s two run dinger in the second inning. Why not blame Tudor?

Whitey Herzog was the Cardinals’ beloved manager who had turned them into an aggressive base stealing machine. With the game on the line in Game Six, though, Herzog opted for Worrell, a 25 year old rookie who had only 21 big league innings under his belt. He also decided the best option for Game Seven was Tudor making his third start in the Series. Why not blame Herzog?

While the Royals rotation got most of the publicity for the Series, the Cardinals provided a stellar staff. St. Louis had two 20 game winners, Tudor and Joaquin Andujar. Andujar threw 269.2 innings going 21-12 with 112 SO during the regular season.

In Game Three of the World Series though, Andujar couldn’t make it past the fourth inning, giving up four runs on nine hits. This was the only start for Andujar; he didn’t see the field again until Game Seven was already out of reach. Why not blame Andujar?

During the World Series, the Cardinals were without one of their most potent weapons, NL Rookie of the Year Vince Coleman. The speedster swiped 110 bags in the regular season. On an overcast night during the NLCS though, Coleman was nearly swallowed whole by the automatic tarp at Busch Stadium.

Cardinals’ third baseman Terry Pendleton stated, “I was just turning around [when] I heard this scream and the thing just swallowed him up.”

Tito Landrum was responsible for taking over in left field. He hit .360 for the series, but couldn’t provide the spark on the base paths like Coleman could. Why not blame the killer tarp or its operator?

One play, one decision, will never decide a game, or series. Even if fans wanted to point to one play which defined the game, Denkinger’s call wouldn’t be it. Stilley concluded in “Quantifying the Call” Orta’s single caused a 22% swing in WE (win expectancy). According to Baseball Reference using WE, Orta’s single wasn’t even one of the top five most significant plays in the game. The list reads as follows:

1. Iorg’s line drive single to right field for the win.

2. Brian Harper’s single in the eight to give the Cards the lead.

3. Darrell Porter’s passed ball.

4. Jim Sundberg’s sac bunt.

5. Steve Balboni’s single to center in the ninth.

In the end, the life threatening voicemails and letters Cardinals fans provided Denkinger were uncalled for. Since then, the Cardinals have continued their storied baseball history, making nine postseason appearances and relinquishing the title in 2006. The Royals haven’t sniffed the postseason since the I-70 Series. Dwelling on one call 25 years ago is a fruitless endeavor. Cardinals fans should enjoy their past and present successes, while Royals fans deal with ‘The Curse of Don Denkinger.’

1985 World Series

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals

Game 1 – October 19, 1985

Location: Royals Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

Attendance: 41,650

Recap: The Cardinals rode a strong pitching performance by ace John Tudor to a victory in Game 1 of the 1985 World Series, a low-scoring affair in which the Royals actually out-hit their cross-state rivals. But the Cardinals’ hits came when it counted. Tito Landrum scored a run and collected a double and a single, and Willie Mcgee, Jack Clark and Cesar Cedeno recorded St. Louis RBIs. Steve Balboni drove in the only run for Kansas City, which featured its own strong outing from starting pitcher Danny Jackson, who gave up two runs over seven innings and struck out seven.

Line Score:

TEAM R H E

St. Louis 3 7 1

Kansas City 1 8 0

Winning pitcher: John Tudor

Losing pitcher: Danny Jackson

Save: Todd Worrell

Notables: Cardinals left fielder Tito Landrum went 2 for 4 with a double, the only player with multiple hits on either team; St. Louis’ John Tudor struck out five and gave up one run over 6.2 innings for the victory; Royals utilityman Lynn Jones hit a triple while pinch hitting for shortstop Buddy Biancalana.

Tomorrow: A recap of Game 2.

Matt Kelsey is a Royals writer and the content editor for I-70 Baseball. He can be reached at mattkelsey@i70baseball.com.

* Box score data from Baseball Almanac.

The Cardinals had a long road to the World Series, where they arrived the heavy favorites to beat the Royals. While the Cardinals’ pitching staff was the driving force behind the team, the offense was impressive. Utilizing “Whiteyball” to the full capabilities, the team was built on speed, defense and fundamentals. Today, here on I-70 Baseball, we break down the starting eight fielders from the 1985 World Series.

It was during that road to the World Series that the Cardinals’ lineup experienced a major loss when a freak accident with a tarp brought an end to the season for Rookie Of The Year Vince Coleman. That left the Cardinals to turn to a man who many people considered to be faster then Vince Coleman to lead off games for them in the Fall Classic.

1. Willie McGee, CF
Willie McGee would patrol the astroturf of Busch Memorial Stadium in center field in Gold Glove style and take the lead off position for the Running Redbirds. McGee was no slouch, he was the National League MVP and Batting Champ in 1985, hitting .353 and leading the league in hits (216) and triples (18).

2. Ozzie Smith, SS
Following McGee in the lineup each night was the Cardinals’ annual Gold Glove winner and All Star shortstop Ozzie Smith. Ozzie would not realize his full potential with the bat for another few years, but his .276 average did not reflect his ability to produce productive outs, moving runners along and setting up the middle of the order with opportunities to drive runs in with minimal effort.

3. Tommy Herr, 2B
It was the Cardinals’ second baseman and number three hitter, Tommy Herr, that showed this theory to be effective. While only hitting eight home runs, hit 38 doubles and post a .416 slugging percentage, Herr still managed to drive in 110 runs behind the top of the order.

4. Jack Clark, 1B
The cleanup spot in the Cardinals’ batting order was manned by the only true “power hitter” on the roster, their first baseman Jack Clark. A .281 batting average, .502 slugging percentage and 22 home runs could only net Clark 87 runs batted in. The third and fourth spots in the order were indicative of Whiteyball at its greatest.

5. Tito Landrum, LF
The number five spot in the order would be patrolled by the left field replacement for Vince Coleman in veteran, home-grown Tito Landrum. Landrum’s season in 1985 was that of a bit player, hitting .280 with four home runs and 21 runs batted in over 161 at bats.

6. Cesar Cedeno, RF
Across the field from him in right field was a late addition to the Cardinals roster, veteran outfielder Cesar Cedeno. Cedeno came to the Cardinals in late August in a trade from Cincinnati and went on an immediate tear. In his only 28 games as a Cardinal, Cedeno would hit .434 with 6 home runs and 19 runs batted in. He would hit sixth throughout the world series.

7. Terry Pendleton, 3B
The offensive threat started to fizzle as the bottom of the Cardinals’ order came to the plate. Terry Pendleton would hit seventh and play third base. While years later he would dominate and win an MVP award, his second year in the league would come in 1985 and be largely unimpressive. He would hit .240 with five home runs, though he would scrape out 69 runs batted in.

8. Darrel Porter/Tom Nieto, C
Pendleton would give way to a platoon at cather hitting eighth. Darrel Porter and Tom Nieto would share the duties behind the plate, while neither of them doing it impressively from the offensive standpoint. Porter would close out the 1985 regular season hitting .221 with 10 home runs and 36 runs batted in. Nieto would not fare much better, hitting .225 with no home runs and 34 runs batted in.

The wild card from the bench was young Andy Van Slyke, who would split time in right field throughout the season and be a late inning replacement in the World Series. Van Slyke would hit .259 with 13 home runs and 55 runs batted in over the course of the season, seeing time at all three outfield positions and first base and stealing 34 bases, just for measure.

The Cardinals’ lineup was poised to take on the Royals in the World Series and matched up with the team from the west side of the state very well. Time would tell the 1985 team just why the games are played on a field, and not on paper or in articles.

Tomorrow: A look at the Cardinals’ pitching staff in 1985.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

It had been three years since the Whitey Herzog managed Cardinals shocked the baseball world by beating the seemingly invincible Milwaukee Brewers in the 1982 World Series and St. Louis was once again in the postseason. While those ’82 Cardinals were labeled as the Running Rabbits, they were a balanced lineup compared to what Herzog had to work with in 1985.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Stuff We Don’t Want to Talk About

The once dependable position of catcher turned into a huge liability for the 1985 Cardinals. Injuries and declining offensive production from the hero of 1982, Darrell Porter, gave rookie Tom Nieto an opportunity. He’d been impressive in a pair of call-ups in 1984, showing off a good bat to go along with some stellar defense. He became the number 2 catcher when Glenn Brummer was released at the end of the season, perhaps in fear that he might start stealing bases again. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, neither Nieto’s bat, glove, nor arm showed up for most of 1985, leaving a rather unproductive platoon situation at catcher.

Leaving under somewhat of a black cloud in a trade that ranks among the worst in Cardinals history, the Cardinals had lost one of their stars when Keith Hernandez was traded to the Mets for Neil Allen. A former NL MVP and perennial Gold Glove winner, Hernandez was one of the best at his position, playing exceptional defense to go along with some of the best gap-to-gap hitting in the major leagues. George Hendrick had initially taken over for Hernandez and played well, but started showing signs that his best years were behind him. In the spirit of Branch Rickey’s motto, “Always trade a player a year too soon, rather than a year too late” , Hendrick would be traded to Pittsburgh for a left handed starter named John Tudor – more on him later. Prior to the start of the 1985 season, the Cardinals made a blockbuster deal with the San Francisco Giants, sending four players for the slugging first baseman, Jack Clark. Just as with Orlando Cepeda nearly two decades earlier, Clark had been bitten by the injury bug that caused him to wear out his welcome in San Francisco. And like Cepeda, when healthy he became an offensive juggernaut in St. Louis, driving in runs at a frightening pace. Injuries would interrupt all three seasons Clark was in St. Louis, but in two of them (85, 87) he still managed MVP caliber performances.

A young switch hitting Terry Pendleton was the new third baseman but had yet to match Ken Oberkfell’s offensive production. He would prove his worth many times in 1987, and several more times with the Atlanta Braves, but in 1985, Pendleton was a young man learning how to play in the majors. He played well, but not as well as his predecessor.

A youngster named Andy van Slyke was the new right fielder, and while a defensive star, his offensive numbers were a big step down from the former right fielder, George Hendrick. He would eventually wear out his welcome in St. Louis and be shipped off to Pittsburgh for key piece to the ’87 championship team, catcher Tony Pena.

There were a few notable upgrades though.

If Lonnie Smith had been a catalyst at the top of the 1982 batting order, Vince Coleman was a herd of charging buffalo. Even though he was a light hitter and susceptible to striking out, when he did get on base exciting things happened. And generally very quickly. Coleman’s 110 stolen bases terrorized pitchers and catchers throughout the National League and led to a Cardinals trademark of scoring a first inning run without the benefit of a hit. The top of the lineup featuring Vince Coleman, Willie McGee, Tommy Herr and Jack Clark gave many pitchers in the National League the yips.

The other notable improvement was in the pitching staff, both starters and the bullpen. With two 21 game winners at the top of the rotation, and Danny Cox not far behind with 18 wins, the Cardinals seemed well equipped to play a short series but unlikely to be able to withstand the tests of a long season. What seemed like a liability when the season started, suddenly became one of the most feared bullpens when Todd Worrell was called up just prior to the postseason eligibility deadline. The hard throwing Worrell would complement one of the best lefties in the game, Ken Dayley.

The Cardinals had battled the heavily favored New York Mets all season long. Thanks to the amazing 19-1 turnaround from John Tudor, the Cards outlasted the rivals from New York and won the division by 3 games with an unbelievable record of 101-61. Thanks to the season long fight, this Cardinals team learned how to win – in every way imaginable. That would come in handy as the Cardinals were about to face the biggest adversity of the season, if not the decade.

A Rough Start

In the National League Championship Series, just expanded to a best of seven format, the Cardinals would face the Los Angeles Dodgers. Even though the Cardinals had won 6 more games than the boys from Hollywood, the Dodgers were heavily favored in the series. The Cardinals were supposed to be just a speed bump on the Dodger’s road to the World Series.

As the series opened in Los Angeles, it appeared that the experts might be right. The Dodgers won the first two games rather convincingly. Both Fernando Valenzuela and Orel Hershiser seemed to be invincible, and their bullpen didn’t even break a sweat.

The series moved to Busch Stadium and the Cardinals hung on to win game 3. The Cardinals got to Bob Welch early and a combination of Danny Cox, Rick Horton, Todd Worrell and Ken Dayley kept the Dodgers at bay.

This brings us to a Sunday night game on October 13, 1985. Every one of the 53,000 in attendance knew the importance of this game. A win and the series is tied. A loss with as many as two games to be played in Los Angeles would be a very difficult hill to climb. It was now or never time for the Cardinals.

Before the game even started, things took a turn for the worse. No, not worse – the unthinkable. A light rain had started falling and a decision was made to cover the field to keep the infield dry. Vince Coleman failed to notice the automatic tarp rolling onto the field and one of his legs got caught underneath the heavy roll of tarp and machinery. He would suffer a badly bruised leg to go with a chipped bone and would spend the rest of the playoffs on crutches, supporting the team from the dugout.

That hill the Cardinals needed to climb just got a lot higher.

The Rough Inning

When the game finally started, Whitey Herzog would call on John Tudor to turn things around for the Cardinals. Even though he had taken the the loss in Game 1, the lefty had pitched well and there was no reason to think he would not be able to do so again tonight. In the first of a series of questionable managerial decisions from Tommy Lasorda, the Dodgers would counter with former Cardinal and St. Louis native, Jerry Reuss. Reuss had some success in Los Angeles, and while not a top of the rotation guy, he was a solid fourth starter.

Cardinal fans were way more engaged in this game, and it suddenly had less to do with it being the pivotal game in the series. Expectations had been high when Reuss broke in with the the Cardinals in 1970. The tall blonde lefty had been a star in high school and had become an ace at AAA Tulsa. His fortunes with the Cardinals were much different as moments of brilliance were overshadowed by struggles with the strike zone. We had hoped for a second Steve Carlton, but instead got a right handed Mike Torrez. As Reuss enjoyed success with the Pirates and Dodgers, our desire to see the Cardinals beat him increased. Since this was the 17th season for Reuss, there was a lot of pent-up frustration that needed to be released. Throw in a bit of “Win one for the Vincer” and you now have the makings of a huge game.

The Cardinals would erupt in the second inning, one of their most productive in postseason history. After a scoreless first inning, Jack Clark and super sub Cesar Cedeno would lead off the home half of the second inning with singles. Tito Landrum, filling in for the injured Vince Coleman, would single Clark home. The Dodgers made a huge defensive error in letting Pedro Guerrero’s throw go to the plate as it allowed both Cedeno and Landrum to take the extra base. That turned out to be significant when Terry Pendleton grounds out to second base in what would have been an easy double play. The Dodgers only had one play, retiring Pendleton at first, and the Cardinals would score their second run of the inning.

Next up is the light hitting Tom Nieto and he would walk in front of ninth place hitter John Tudor. The Dodgers hoped for an inning ending double play and an end to the rally, but instead dug themselves into a deep deep hole. The Cardinals sensed that this was an opportunity to break the game wide open. Forget the Ozzie Smith “go crazy folks” home run in game five and the three run Jack Clark bomb to win the series in game six, what happened next was the play of the series.

It was not if, but when would Herzog would put on the squeeze play. Aggressive base running is what got the Cardinals this far, and it would have to carry them to the World Series. Everybody in the stadium knew it was coming. The Dodgers were certainly expecting it. Everyone except Reuss. With Landrum running from third, Tudor lays down the bunt and Reuss is unable to field it and everybody was safe. The Cardinals had a three run lead, had been given yet another out, and the Dodgers were clearly rattled. This is when the Cardinals really poured it on, ending the post season career of Jerry Reuss.

In a rare productive out, leadoff hitter Willie McGee would hit an opposite field line drive which would allow Tom Nieto to move up to third base. That turned out to be important as Ozzie Smith followed that with a ground ball deep in the hole at short which scored Nieto. Tommy Herr followed that with a single, scoring Tudor. That would be all for Reuss and the Cardinals fans gave him a sarcastic ovation as he left the field.

Future Cardinal Rick Honeycutt would come in to try to end the rally. Honeycutt was the fifth starter who was sort of an odd man out in a short series. He would face four hitters and fail to retire any of them. Jack Clark would single, Cesar Cedeno would walk, and both Tito Landrum and Terry Pendleton would get their second RBIs of the inning with singles. Both Landrum and Clark were 2-2 in the inning. Tommy Lasorda would go to his third pitcher of the inning, the right hander Bobby Castillo. With a blowout in the making, Castillo was going to be in the game for a long time so that the Dodgers didn’t wear out their bullpen in case they were needed tomorrow afternoon for Game 5. Castillo finally gets the last out by striking out Tom Nieto to end the inning, but not before the Cardinals had a 9-0 lead. With John Tudor pitching, it might as well have been 200-0.

John Tudor did not disappoint as he pitched seven strong innings, allowing just three hits. The lone blemish was a meaningless home run by Bill Madlock to lead off the seventh inning. Tudor would be lifted for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the seventh, saving him for a possible return in game seven, if needed. Rick Horton and Bill Campbell each pitched an inning to seal the 12-2 victory, and the once over-matched Cardinals were beginning to look like National League champions. That would come later with two dramatic late inning home runs, but Cardinal fans knew that with this victory, the series was all but over.

Bob Netherton covers Cardinals history for i70baseball.com and writes at Throatwarbler’s Blog. You may follow Bob on Twitter here or on Facebook here.

The infamous “Denkinger call” from game six of the 1985 World Series is a heated topic for fans of both the Royals and the Cardinals. It boils the blood of St. Louis fans, and turns Royals fans defensive while arguing the Cardinals had ample opportunity to win game six, not to mention game seven. Both sides view is clouded by emotions.

But there is a way to objectively quantify the effect the call had on the game: win expectancy (WE). Some ingenious baseball nerds fans have mined the data of play-by-play accounts from a huge number of baseball games to determine the percentage of time teams win in every game situation (inning, score, outs, and base runners). Viewing the Denkinger call through the perspective of win expectancy provides a new way to look at a very old argument.

The scene: October 26, 1985, Royals Stadium, Cardinals leading the Series 3-2, leading the game 1-0, bottom of the ninth, nobody on, nobody out. Win expectancy tells us that the team with the 1-0 lead at this point in a game wins 81% of the time. Jorge Orta comes off the bench and digs in against Todd Worrell, also taking the field for the first time in the game. Worrell jumps ahead to a 0-2 count. Orta fouls off the next pitch before bouncing one to the right side. Worrell covers first and Orta is out by a country mile…but first base ump Don Denkinger calls him safe.

Cardinals up 1-0, bottom of the ninth, man on first, no outs: The Cardinals win expectancy dropped to 67%, a change of 14%. But what if Denkinger got the call right? The Cards would have been just two outs away, with no runners to worry about. And their win expectancy would have jumped to 89%, an increase of 8%. The swing between “out” and “safe” was 22%.

So what does that mean for Cardinals and Royals fans? Perhaps it means they are both right. There is a significant difference between an 89% WE and a 67% WE. The blown call clearly had an effect on the game, and Cardinals fans are right to loathe it. On the other hand, that the Cardinals had a 67% WE even after the call means that it was still their game to lose. The players determined the outcome from there. It was only when the batter after Orta, Steve Balboni singled, advancing Orta to second, that the WE swung ever so slightly in the Royals favor (52%). And when the next batter, Jim Sundberg, bunted and Worrell threw Orta out at third, the WE again stood in the Cardinals favor (66%)—once again, the Cardinals game to lose. A passed ball by Darrell Porter that allowed the runners on first and second to advance a base put things back slightly in the Royals favor (55%). An intentional walk to Hal McRae had a nominal effect on the WE before Dane Iorg became the hero with a walk-off single. Many plays involving many players determined the outcome after the Denkinger call. Not to mention that the Cards and Royals played game seven the next night, both with a WE of 50% before the first pitch. But then again…I’m a Royals fan.

Aaron Stilley does the blog thing here and makes the tweet tweets here.