The Royals wrap up their California road trip this weekend with a three game series with Oakland.  With the Tigers getting their series with the red hot Rangers off to a humiliating start, this could be a great chance for the Royals to close the one game lead in the American League Central.  Here are the matchups by the numbers.

The A’s are coming off of a losing series against the Rangers.  They were out scored in that series by only a single run.  In 42 games, the A’s have scored 199 runs for an average of close to 5 runs a game.  Strangely enough, the number of runs scored against the A’s is an identical 199.  If the Royals can contain Oakland’s offense this weekend they are sure to like where they sit in the rankings come Monday morning.

Friday:

James Shields gets the start for the Royals.  Shields took the loss in his last game against the Yankees and a no decision against the White Sox.  Both were tough losses for the Royals as Shields only allowed 2 runs to New York and none at all to the Sox.  Shields has struck out close to a batter an inning and owns a 0.97 WHIP.  Look for Big Game James to keep the Oakland offense in check on Friday night.

The A’s will send Jarrod Parker to the hill on Friday to face Shields.  Parker has been pretty terrible thus far.  His only wins so far this year have only come when his team has provided great run support behind him such as his 10-6 win against the Angles.  His ERA is approaching 7 and has been allowing close to 2 base runners an inning.  If Parker turns this around on Friday it will be surprising.

Saturday:

Ervin Santana will start for the Royals.  Santana is coming off of a disappointing game against the Yankees giving up 8 hits, 2 of which were home runs.  The long ball can at times be Santana’s biggest weakness and as mentioned before, the A’s can hit.  Fortunately, the Coliseum is a pitcher friendly park and should help Santana keep in on the field.

Santana will face off against Tommy Milone.  Milone has been pretty hit or miss so far this year.  His ERA is a deceiving 3.71.  He has surrendered 13 earned runs in his last 5 starts, however in two of those starts he shut his opponents down completely.  The Royals hope they get the Tommy Milone that gives up an earned run per inning and not the Tommy Milone that gives up none at all.

Sunday:

Luis Mendoza gets the start on Sunday.  Mendoza has had a rough year so far.  Unlike Santana, his troubles extend past giving up home runs.  Mendoza has given up lots of hits as well as the occasional walk and he has yet to pitch past the 6^th inning.  The Royals are going to have to provide Mendoza with a lot of run support to keep this game in control.

Run support could be hard to come by though as A.J. Griffin will be starting for the A’s on Sunday.  Griffin posted a 3.06 ERA last year and has looked sharp so far.  His 3.48 ERA this year is somewhat bloated thanks to one horrendous start against the Red Sox where he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings.  The Royals will have to try to get to Griffin early for the finale of the series.

The St. Louis Cardinals, according to many sources, seem to be searching for starting pitching.

The one thing the team has made sure that everyone is well aware of is the depth of starting pitching in this organization.  If that is true, then why the search for another arm in the rotation?

According to Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post Dispatch, it appears the team feels the need for more innings in the rotation.  The loss of Chris Carpenter, the concern over Jaime Garcia, and the unknown of what kind of workload the young arms can carry has the team willing to add a known “inning eating” commodity.  Most recently, that interest has shown in the Tigers Rick Porcello.

Should the concern be warranted?  Adam Wainwright is now two springs removed from Tommy John surgery and projected to be back to his normal self.  The Jake Westbrook trade and subsequent signing was based off of his ability to pitch a high number of innings.  The Cardinals have not had two pitchers with over 200 innings just once in the last 26 years, as pointed out by friend of the site Jon Doble.

Looking at trends over the last three years for the projected six men battling for the five spots in the rotation, the concern does come through.

Wainwright was injured the entire 2011 season, having a large impact on his three year average of 143 innings pitched.  If we remove the injury season and go back a year further, his average jumps up to 220 innings.  The concern is whether or not his arm can carry that load again, but for the sake of argument in this space, I give him the benefit of the doubt.  Innings Based On Average: 220

Westbrook was brought in to solve the issue of innings pitched.  Despite nagging injuries the last few years, he has approached the 200 inning plateau, though he has not reached it.  His 2010 season was split between the Indians and the Cardinals, but was still a productive one.  His average places him second in this discussion, though he is probably the number three man in the rotation.  Innings Based On Average: 187

Garcia, the wild card of the bunch, has seen injuries and ineffectiveness effect him during his major league career.  At times, he has been a dominant, top-of-the-rotation type pitcher.  At others, he has been sporadic and wild, projecting more at the back of the rotation.  Last season was the worst in his three year average, only producing a little more than 121 innings.  So far this Spring, it appears he has righted the ship and is back on pace to be a big part of this team.  Innings Based On Average: 166

Lance Lynn is a bit harder to project based on his limited exposure at the Major League level.  Many tend to forget that he was a starter during his minor league career, however, and the three year projection goes back to grab an entire year of starting at the Triple-A level.  His average is hurt by his time in the bullpen in St. Louis in 2011, but is still respectable for a guy entering his second year in a big league rotation. Innings Based On Average: 150

The final spot in the rotation will be left to either Joe Kelly or Shelby Miller.  Kelly is the easiest to examine in this conversation, thanks to his production filling in for Garcia last season.  His workload reached a peak due to the need for him in the big league rotation last year and leaves the Cardinals hopeful that he can repeat that performance but concerned that he may have pushed too hard, too soon.  It is also important to note that his 2010 season saw him work out of the bullpen in Class-A ball for a period of time. Innings Based On Average: 138

Shelby Miller has everyone buzzing.  He ranks as one of the top ten prospects in all of Major League Baseball and the team and fans are both excited to see what he can do on the biggest stage.  He gave everyone a glimpse of his potential at the end of last season.  He may be the biggest unknown in this situation and he may also offer a saving grace.  He projects as a top of the rotation starter and will be relied upon throughout his career and that time may come as soon as this season.  Innings Based On Average: 131

The ultimate equation that you would like to apply to an ideal situation is to break up the innings based on quality starts.  A quality start requires six innings pitched from the starter and there are 162 games in the major league season.  That puts most teams looking for 972 innings from their starting rotation in a perfect world.  The Cardinals rotation will fall well short of that goal based off of these projections. Innings For Rotation Based On Average: 854-861

That leaves the team about 110 innings short of where they would like to be.  The name that is driving the most attention right now is Rick Porcello, who’s three year average puts him at 183 innings.  Even if he was slotted to fill the five spot in the rotation, this gains the Cardinals around 50 innings.  A drastic improvement but not one that reaches their goal.

The Cardinals are relying on one of the pitchers in their rotation to overachieve their average and the addition of Porcello, or someone similar, to pick up the remainder of the balance.

Ultimately, the move may not be necessary but at the same time, it is not a bad one.  Assuming the team doesn’t have to part with any key components of the future, a trade for Porcello makes a whole lot of sense once you take a look at the numbers.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at i70baseball.
You can follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

I’ve not lived up to my name lately, and for that I apologize. Actually I shouldn’t have to apologize; David Glass and Dayton Moore should do that for me. Since they’re obviously not going to, I’m sorry. I’m going to try to fix that this week with five reasons to be optimistic about 2013. It’s not easy right now, what with the Tigers heading to the World Series, to think that this team can compete for a title in 2013. They can, and here’s how:

1. While I’ll agree with anyone that David Glass is a miserly old man, he’s still a business man. He knows he has to acquire starting pitching that makes a difference this offseason or is cash cow may be slightly less profitable. I don’t think that means that Glass breaks the bank, but I do think the pressure is on Allard….er Dayton Moore to bring in a good starting pitcher. Not someone that could be good, but someone that is. Whether this happens by trade or not, the pitching will improve in 2013, you can count on it.
2. The offense is going to take another step forward. Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar may not be able to improve on 2012, but Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas sure will, in a big way. You have to remember that these two will both be under 24 for a majority of next season. They have a lot of maturing and improving to do, and we’ll see some of it next season.
3. Jeff Francoeur will likely improve or get cut. I’ve been saying it all winter, and I still believe it. Frenchy will be your starting right fielder on Opening Day. The difference this year is that the Royals can cut bait without having next year hanging over their head. My expectation is that Frenchy starts until the super two deadline passes and then right field is handed over to Wil Myers. Frenchy will most likely get the choice of being a role player or being cut.
4. We will see more power from this club in 2013. I love Kevin Seitzer as a former Royal and especially as a person. I thought it was a complete joke that the Royals fired Seitzer while keeping Moore and Yost. But still, his up the middle/opposite field approach sapped a lot of power away from the like of Moose, Hosmer, Gordon and Butler. I would not be surprised in the least if three of the four set career highs for home runs.
5. The Royals were better than their record in 2012. Even their Pythagorean record comes out to 74-88, but beyond that…imagine this team with Salvador Perez for a full season. He posted a 2.8 WAR in half a season. Imagine this team if Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino aren’t lost for the season. Imagine that bullpen with Joakim Soria. Are the Royals going to have injuries in 2013? Of course they are. But the likelihood that they have as many significant injuries at key positions is very, very low.

When Mike Moustakas banged a homer in just his second game as a big leaguer, hopes soared. And when he had a .385 average with four walks after four games, it looked like he was on his way to a great rookie season.

Mike Moustakas by Erika Lynn

But things went sour from that point on. By the time September rolled around, you had to wonder if Moustakas could hit big league pitching. He had not homered since his second game and had just 18 RBIs and an anemic .232 average.

But the big third baseman had struggled to adjust at every level, so the Royals stuck with him.

The show Moustakas put on in September is, the Royals hope, a preview of things to come. He batted .352 for the month and popped 4 homers, driving in 12 runs.

We all know what we WANT from Mike Moustakas. We WANT another George Brett. We want 30 homers and 100 RBIs and a .300 average every season.

But rather than talk about how it’s unfair to expect Moose to be George Brett, Royals fans might look around to see what other, mere mortals are doing at third base.

More specifically, Royals fans can ask “What are other teams in the division getting from their third basemen?”

The Royals sights should be set on becoming the best team in the division. They need some of the parts of their whole to become the best in the division. And believe it or not, Moustakas is not that far off from being the best third baseman in the division.

This season, the Tigers plan to play Miguel Cabrera at third. No one can expect Moose to be Cabrera at the plate, but Cabrera’s work at third remains to be seen. This experiment may not turn out as well as the Tigers hope.

The third basemen in the division consist of, basically, four youngsters trying to develop into solid big leaguers, and one of the best hitters of the last decade who isn’t really a natural third baseman.

For Chicago, 24-year-old Brent Morel has a couple of years of big league experience to build on, but hasn’t blossomed yet. In Cleveland, 23-year-old Lonnie Chisenhall hopes to take the position from last year’s starter, Jack Hannahan. And in Minnesota, the Twins look to 26-year-old Danny Valencia to provide the power they lack in their lineup.

It may not tell a lot to analyze last year’s numbers. But based on them, Moustakas wasn’t far from the others in the division, even with his struggles to adjust to the majors. If you average the numbers posted last season by Morel, Hannahan, Valencia and Brandon Inge of Detroit, you get numbers Moustakas could easily match.

The averages of Morel, Hannahan, Valencia and Inge, compared to Moustakas:

If Moustakas plays 123 games this season, there is no reason to think he can’t blow those numbers out of the water.

Interestingly, the guy being drummed out of a job – Hannahan – actually put up the best OBP, SLG, OPS and WAR: .331/.338/.719 and 2.2. The guy who played the most – Valencia – posted the lowest WAR (-1.1) even though he led the group with 15 homers and 72 RBIs.

The Royals find themselves in the same position as the Twins, White Sox and Indians. Each has a third baseman with minimal experience who they hope can make dramatic improvement.

Moustakas has started slowly this spring, but he won’t be moved out of the lineup by anything but injury this year. The Royals, like three other teams in the division, will wait patiently for their third-base prospect to develop.

Cabrera may post big offensive numbers this year, but the Royals hope Moustakas is the division’s best long-term.

I received several texts, emails and phone calls in the days following the Tigers’ signing of Prince Fielder. The messages varied, but the tone was always the same:

“Now we have to go sign Roy Oswalt, there’s no way we can compete without him.”

“Now we have no reason to sign Oswalt, we can’t compete this year, period.”

“Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the same lineup? In the AL Central? This sucks.”

Yeah, well imagine you are a Royals fan that wrote this last week. Then you read that all signs point to Oswalt signing with the Cardinals. The Cardinals? Did anyone tell him that Dave Duncan left? Anyway, there was only one person that could wake me from this nightmare of the week… you guessed it, the Kool Aid Drinker.

See, the Kool Aid Drinker thinks the Fielder signing was great for the Royals. $214 million for a 275 lb first baseman that had his career high in HRs 5 years ago and his career high in RBI 3 years ago? Awesome! Prince will have 1000 games on those knees after the third game of 2012. His dad hit 1000 games, also with the Tigers, in 1999. He was also 5 years removed from his career high in home runs. He hit exactly 100 home runs from that season forward, and more than 20 just once. Sure, his dad was 4 years older, so how about another heavy first baseman? Ryan Howard hit 1000 games last season, 5 years after his career high in home runs, I guess you saw how that season ended. How about Mo Vaughn? He hit 1000 games in 1998, just three years after his career high. Vaughn played 4 more years, 2 of them productive, and had nearly twice as many strikeouts as RBI in that time frame.

Listen, the Kool Aid Drinker is not all about boring people with statistics. But feel free to check out John Kruk or Steve Balboni if you want. In fact, I think we can make some fairly simple deductions:

1. Fat first basemen do not age well
2. Prince Fielder is fat
3. Prince Fielder plays first base
4. The Royals are going to dominate the AL Central

Seriously, over the next 4 years Prince is guaranteed just shy of $100 million dollars. Eric Hosmer, over that same time, will likely make less than $20 million. Who would you rather have? In 2014 the Tigers will have a 30 year old Fielder, a 31 year old Miguel Cabrera, a 30 year old Justin Verlander, and a 35 year old Victor Martinez on the books for $83 million dollars. If you are counting at home that is a pitcher with a whole lot of mileage on his arm and 3 DHs for what figures to be 70% of their total payroll. The best part is the Royals will have control over almost all of their best players through 2014 at a much more reasonable price.

We have not even talked about defense, or the irony of Prince’s last name. A fielder he is not. Rumor has it the Tigers are planning on putting the 4th worst defensive first baseman in baseball at first base and the sixth worst defensive first baseman at third base. The Tigers should be the worst defensive team in the division, if not all of baseball. Can you imagine the hilarity of a bunt situation with Cabrera and Fielder charging? We may get some Ken Harvey humor out of this contract. By the All Star game it will be clear to even the Tigers that one of the big boys has to play DH, and neither of them wants to. That’s a chemistry builder.

Essentially, the point the Kool Aid Drinker is this: Even if the Tigers do win the division in 2012 (and I don’t think they will), they have set themselves up for failure in the future. They have behaved like far too many of our countrymen, deciding to get what they want now regardless of what effect it may have on their future. I have heard a lot about how the contract will never go 9 years because Fielder will opt out long before that, I assume the people saying that have not seen the Kool Aid Drinker’s very scientific study above. It would be pretty odd for a 295 pound DH hitting .250ish to opt out of $24 million a year, and that is exactly what Fielder will be in 3-4 years.

ROYALS TO HOST KIA TIGERS OF THE KOREAN BASEBALL ORGANIZATION IN SURPRISE, ARIZONA

KANSAS CITY, MO (January 12, 2012) — The Kansas City Royals announced today that the club will host the ten-time Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) national champion Kia Tigers at its complex in Surprise, Ariz., from January 16-February 19.

The Kia Tigers, the most successful team in the 31-year history of the Korean Baseball Organization, will bring 50 players to Arizona to prepare for their regular season. The club will be housed in the Royals minor league facilities and train on the back fields of the complex. The Tigers will share the facility with Royals Fantasy Camp during the week of January 30.

After their toughest stretch of the season (against the Yankees and Red Sox), the Royals hit the road for an easier slate of games (Blue Jays, Indians, Tigers). The road trip went okay, as they finished 5-5, but it easily could have went excellent as every loss was by one run.

They came back to Kansas City last weekend for a quick three-game series against the Indians and the first game of the series produced the same result: a one-run loss.

Going 5-6 in 11 straight games seems like something the Royals have been doing for the majority of the year. However, having all six losses come down to one run is extremely tough to take for the team and the fans.

Of the Royals’ 83 losses so far this year, 31 of them have been by one run.

Yep… 31.

They have grown accustomed to building an early lead and losing it, or counting on their offense to make a comeback in the last few innings.

As disheartening as these losses can be, there is light to be shed on the situation.

First off, the Royals’ Runs Scored(RS)-Runs Allowed(RA) Differential is sitting at -53 after 142 games. This isn’t a great number by any means, but it is definitely surprising considering their record is 59-83.

Last year, they were at a -172 RS-RA Differential after 142 games, with a 58-84 record.

This means two things: 1) The 2011 Royals are one game better in the standings than the 2010 Royals and 2) The 2011 Royals are much, much more competitive than the 2010 Royals.

With the plethora of rookies on the current roster, there is no doubt in my mind that the improvement is going to continue into 2012.

This year, the Royals have been experiencing a ton of growing pains. Whether it’s the rookies in the bullpen blowing leads or the rookie hitters going through 0-20 slumps, 2011 has been more of a learning episode than anything.

Next year, look for the bullpen to hold onto more of the one or two run leads. Look for Mike Moustakas to go on a 15-game hitting streak filled with doubles and home runs rather than singles through the hole at 1^st and 2^nd. Look for Johnny Giavotella to be kept in the game during the 9^th inning because he has improved his defense.

One-run losses are very frustrating when they are happening over and over. Nobody likes to lose, especially in that type of fashion.

Improvement has to start somewhere and being closer and more competitive in individual games is a great start.

As hard as these losses are to swallow this year, just know that they are actually stepping stones into much greater success in 2012.

Labor Day. Many people recognize this as the end of summer. The Boys Of Summer in Kansas City may very well feel the same. With a loss today and a Tigers win, the Royals will find themselves mathematically eliminated from winning the American League Central division, putting an official end to a race they have not been a part of for months.

The strike shortened season of 1994 would see the Royals finish the closest to first place that they ever have since the installation of six divisions in baseball. They would be eliminated from competition on August 7th due to the strike, but they were only four games back when the season came to a close on August 10.

Despite a losing season in 1995, the Royals would finish second in the American League Central. That may be just a bit deceiving however as the team finished 30 games behind the Cleveland Indians and would find themselves mathematically eliminated on September 8th. It would not be the smallest margin they would trail by, but it would be the highest finish they would enjoy since then.

Looking back across the dates, the research shows that the Royals have faded over the last 17 years fairly early. Below you will see the date that the boys in blue found themselves aware that it would be impossible for them to find post-season baseball.

Only one time in the last 17 seasons have the Royals found themselves in the hunt past the second week of September. With the young guns on the horizon, that may finally change. Maybe then the Kansas City area can find more to celebrate than the beginning of football season.

The Royals surprising start thus far has been built on middle of the order production, defense and shutdown performances from a very young bullpen. As expected, the weak link has been the starting pitching. Royals starters are sporting a collective 5.17 ERA, worst in the American League. That the team with the worst starting ERA has jumped out to a 17-14 record is a minor miracle. It is also the major factor preventing many fans from fully buying into this team as a contender just yet.

photo by Minda Haas

I have delved deep into the numbers to see how the Royals rotation stacks up within the AL Central. The results probably will not be encouraging to the Royals faithful, though there is some reason to hope for minor improvement.

My ranking of the rotations (through May 4):

The White Sox, Indians, and Tigers clearly have the superior rotations to this point, with the Twins and Royals lagging far behind. But here is one reason for (slight) optimism I found:

While the starters have so far allowed runs at a terrible rate, their xFIP suggests some of that is bad luck and the staff ERA has the potential to decrease significantly. The bad news is that their 4.30 xFIP is still only good for fourth in the division.

Here is how that ERA/xFIP discrepancy is distributed among the Royals starters:

Those ugly ERAs from Davies, Francis, and Hochevar are three of the worst five among ALC starters, but there is significant room for improvement if their xFIPs are any indication. Those three have the most “unlucky” ERA to xFIP ratio among ALC starters. The biggest reason I see for this is the high rate of fly balls that are leaving the park: 13% of fly balls have gone for home runs against KC starters, highest in the majors, and a number that should dip closer to the norm of 9.5-10%.

But even with room to expect improvement, the starting staff as now made up will continue to be the achilles’ heel of the 2011 Royals and temper dreams of contending for the division crown. If the team continues overcoming the starting rotation and can hang around .500 or better, the Royals front office will face critical decisions about promoting one or more of the arms from the farm. People who know about these things suggest Mike Montgomery and Danny Duffy are close and could have an impact. The early promotion of Eric Hosmer suggests one or more of those pitchers could follow him to KC soon. If the offense, defense and bullpen can carry on at current levels, a shot in the arm to the rotation could really start to make this team interesting.

For more nerd kicks, a look at the AL Central pitchers by their average game score (through May 4):

You may follow Aaron Stilley on the Tweeties if you are into that kind of thing.

Where did this come from? The Angels and the White Sox looked slightly puzzled this week facing a revamped Royals team. This is definitely not the team from a year ago. They have exhibited a bite and determination in the late innings that was not there last year unless Joakim Soria was pitching.

The Royals are only a half a game out of first after this afternoon’s loss to the Tigers, which is encouraging to the entire organization. The young hitters are hitting pretty well (ranked in the top 8 in both average and home runs) and the defense right in the middle of the pack (14th ranked field percentage).

The Royals won four in a row after losing their home opener before losing the second game of a two-game series with the White Sox and again this afternoon in Detroit. The Royals still have a solid chance to take the series with two games remaining in Detroit before a day off.

After Monday, the Royals will travel to Minnesota for a quick two game set, which begins a thirteen-day stretch in which the Royals will play. After Minnesota the Royals will travel back home to host the Mariners (four games) and the Indians (3 games) before traveling down to Texas to face the Rangers.

The Royals have been fortunate so far in avoiding injuries. Currently the only one on the disabled list is veteran Jason Kendall, who is expected to be return as soon as he has been deemed ready. His return, like Jeff Suppan’s, should provide veteran leadership to a very youthful team (especially the pitching staff). His contributions at the plate are significant but not nearly as significant as those behind it.

The pitching staff both starters and bullpen have been shaky the last couple of games but kept the games within reach (three runs or less) during every single contest. However one or two mistake pitches is all it takes to make the difference in this game. If the pitching staff falls into sync, the defense will naturally improve as the season goes along.

Taking the season one game at a time is working for these young players. A loss or two in a row is expected for any team. They are young and ambitious at this point. The fans eagerly want this team to stay hungry but also are skeptical because they have been burned by many previous Royals’ teams that have come before that showed this kind of promise. If they keep it up, they will earn back the respect of their city and fan base that after last year, had all but given up on them.