Trevor Rosenthal might have lost the battle for the final starting rotation spot, but the St. Louis Cardinals gained a great resource for their bullpen in 2013.

Trevor Rosenthal – photo from FoxSportsMidwest

The Cardinals officially said last week that Rosenthal is out of the running for the fifth spot in the rotation and will start the season in the bullpen. And while that might be disappointing for a pitcher who had a goal of winning that battle, the move should work out best for both sides.

Rosenthal can throw more than 100 mph and often looked as unhittable as any pitcher in Major League Baseball last season out of the bullpen, and the Cardinals will give him the chance to do more of the same in 2013.

As a reliever, Rosenthal could rare back and throw the ball as hard as he wanted without having to worry about stamina. That gave his fastball the extra few miles per hour that often make the difference in whether a hitter gets a hit or swings threw a pitch.

And he most likely would’ve lost that quality had he moved to the rotation.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander can still crank it up to 100 mph late in a ballgame, but he is a rare (almost unique) pitcher who can throw as hard as a starter as he could if he were a reliever. Others tend to lose a few miles per hour on their fastball once they’re asked to throw more than one or two innings.

Adam Wainwright began his Cardinals career out of the bullpen as the closer for the 2006 World Series championship team. He threw in the high 90s as a reliever but rarely reaches above 94 or 95 mph as a starter.

Granted, Wainwright is plenty effective as a starter and is on the precipice of receiving a whole lot of money because he can pitch effectively for seven innings or more. That could very well be the path Rosenthal eventually follows, but for now he is best suited for the bullpen.

He started one game at the beginning of spring training, and it didn’t go well. He gave up four runs on five hits in two innings against the Miami Marlins while walking two batters and failing to strike out anybody.

Sure, that was an early spring training game, but the Cardinals would be foolish to take a chance on a young pitcher in their rotation when they have others who they have already groomed to be long-term starters for the organization.

Those two are Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller, and they will battle for the final spot in the rotation.

Kelly did not look good in his last start, giving up two runs and three walks in two innings Thursday against the New York Yankees.

But Miller hasn’t been much better. He gave up two runs and three hits in two innings Friday against the Washington Nationals but walked just one hitter.

Overall, Kelly has more experience as a starter and is more of a sure bet than Miller at this point.

Theoretically, the Cardinals could give Kelly the starting job and send Miller to the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds to start the season. Then Miller could come up into the rotation and Kelly could slide to the bullpen if a reliever gets injured, or if the Cardinals find they need more depth in the bullpen.

That situation will work itself out in time, but at least the Cardinals already know they have a flamethrower who can shut down hitters late in a ballgame, even if he technically lost a job to get to that position.

The Royals are like your kids. You don’t love them because they’re good. You love them because they’re yours.

For more than two decades I’ve loved a loser. But like a parent, I could never give up on my kid and move on to another.

After 100 posts covering my favorite team in all sports, I’ve come to the conclusion that loving a baseball team can’t be about winning and losing. And further, writing about baseball can’t be about winning and losing.

As a journalist, I’ve covered floods, storms, arrests, trials, legislative proceedings, and business and religious events. All those would seem infinitely more important than sports.

Yet I spend most of my time covering sports. Why? Is it because I’m lazy or unable to focus my feeble mind on more important matters?

Maybe.

But there is something about sports that draws me. When I see children playing on a playground, my eyes are unavoidably drawn to those who are competing at a sport, rather than the ones on the swings or playing imagination games. Why is that?

I recently came to the conclusion that I’m drawn to any sport where I see people trying to accomplish a task. Whether it’s a small child trying to put a ball in a hoop, or a general manager trying to rebuild a loser through the draft, there is some challenge that requires determination, resilience and effort.

So perhaps floods, trials and elections are no more important than the Royals snapping a 12-game losing streak. After all, the human struggle to overcome, persevere and achieve is played out no more gloriously than on the athletic field.

The Royals continue to dredge the depths of the baseball world. They continue to lose far more games than they win. But they persevere in the battle to overcome. And that’s why I’m drawn to watch.

When it comes to the Royals, I am more drawn to write stories about minor leaguers and about the draft, and about roster makeup than I am about the wins and losses of the big league club. And I think that’s because I’m more into the grind to develop than I am about the wins and losses.

The losses keep coming. We hoped this year would be different. But so far it’s not. Still, I keep watching, keep writing, keep caring.

After 100 posts, I’m still just as passionate about my team as a parent is about their child. Some day they’ll win, but that doesn’t matter. What matters most is the struggle the Royals engage in, to overcome, to persevere, and to achieve.

For the first time since the incredible evening of September 28th, 2011 the Kansas City Royals finally took the field for a game that counted. How much should I emphasize finally? Our roommates here at I70 Baseball, the St Louis Cardinals, had completed two games in two different cities before Alex Gordon dug in against Jered Weaver Friday evening. Finally we can quit speculating about what might happen. Finally we have real games to watch and react. Finally baseball can show us why we why love it so much. Baseball shows us that when we think we know stuff about baseball, we really don’t know anything about baseball.

Coming into the season we had this team figured out. The Kansas City Royals were going to hit. The Royals were going to be good defensively. The bullpen was going to be strong, and the starting rotation was going to be suspect. Then the first game of the 2012 season starts and the game unfolded like none of us thought it would.

Alex Gordon digs in and promptly flies out to center and begins a long evening for the Royals at the plate. Jered Weaver hamstrung the Royals for 8 innings, striking out 10, and never allowed a runner to reach third base. Granted Weaver is an ace pitcher and a lot of the Royals futility can be attributed to him. However, the top of the Royals line-up looked lost at the plate. Especially on Alex Gordon’s second at bat where he struck out with three check swings. The closest the Royals came to scoring was in the 7th when Jeff Francoeur doubled with one out…and promptly got picked off. There are some trends that seem to carry over from year to year. Horrendous base running appears to have not changed in the Royals organization. It was a disappointing offensive to performance. Oh well, we waited this long for the Royals to play a game. I guess we’ll wait a few more hours for the Royals to score a run.

Fortunately, there was a bright spot for the Royals. It was starting pitcher Bruce Chen, who threw six innings of shutout ball, striking out 4, and not walking anyone. A good performance from this starting staff is important. Since the Royals bullpen is supposed to the strength of the pitching staff I thought it was a good idea to not let a tired Chen face the heart of the Angels line-up. Chen was lifted, and Aaron Crow was sent out to pitch the 7th. To this point in the game there had not been a lot to cheer about. But then the fist pumping began. Aaron Crow struck out the side in dominating fashion. This performance was highlighted by a three pitch strike out that made the greatest active hitter in baseball; Albert Pujols, look flat out silly. I’ll take another inning of that please. Unfortunately, that was the high water mark for the Royals in this game.

Crow came back out to pitch the 8th. After retiring Kendrys Morales on a fly ball to left, Crow gave up three consecutive singles before being lifted for Greg Holland. OK, Holland is viewed by many fans to be the best arm in the bullpen. If anyone is going to put this fire out it’s Greg Holland. Instead, Alcides Escobar mishandled a weak grounder from Peter Bourjos allowing a run to score and keeping the bases loaded. Erick Aybar was the next hitter who uncorked a triple down the right field line and that was your ball game. The Angels beat the Royals on Opening Day 5-0.

This game just goes to show that in baseball anything can happen. That’s part of the sport’s mystery. This was a game of opposites for the Royals. The parts of the team we thought would be strengths; bullpen, offense, and defense let us down. The part we thought was suspect, the starting pitching, gave us something to cheer about. It’s too early to tell if this is a trend to buck the prevalent thinking, or it’s a one game, or even an entire series anomaly.

This was just one game of 162. It has been said that during a baseball season a team will win 50 games, lose 50 games, and their season will be decided with the middle 62 games. While I’m still irritated that Aaron Crow and Greg Holland didn’t hold down their end of the bargain. You have to remember the Royals did not score any runs for their pitchers. Because the Royals got shutout I have to put this game in the 50 they were going to lose anyway. Not every pitcher will be tough as Jered Weaver. It’s just tough when it’s the first game in six months. The good news is, the Royals get another crack at winning in less than 24 hours. This next is likely one of the coveted 62.

Editor’s Note: When we talk to new writers for i70baseball, the first submission we ask of them is simply titled “Why I Love Baseball”. New Cardinal writer Jim Smith joins us this week and starts with this submission:

It was a warm, summer afternoon. Momma just finished cleaning up the kitchen when Grandpa took me out in the front yard to play ball. He bought me my first Wiffle-Ball bat and ball to play outside. My first few swings were no good, and I think the holes I spun myself into that day are still there in the yard. It was was a frustrating time, but that last swing I made was one that will never forget. I made contact with that plastic ball, and the ball cleared the biggest tree in the yard. Garndpa was in shock, and I ran the imaginary bases like Kirk Gibson, hopping around, pumping my fists. Grandpa gave the dented ball to keep, and mom had it put up on my shelf for me to look at in my room. Since that day, I have never thought of playing another sport besides Baseball.

I used to talk to him every week about how I played and what I did, and he was always my biggest fan, until senior year. My grandfather’s cancer began to worsen, and it took over his body. On April 9, 2010, I got a call from my Uncle Fred, who was caring for him while Grandpa was getting treatment for his cancer in the VFW. That night, Grandpa kept calling me his, “Favorite softball player,” and it pained me to hear it, but to hear his voice was the most soothing sound I could have heard at the time, he told me that the Cardinals were going to draft me that spring, and that I just got to keep playing hard for everything to fall into place. The next day, the doctor called to say he died from an aneurism in his shoulder. Since that day, I’ve worn his dog tag around my neck, and his writing nickname on the thumb of my glove, “Paparotsky”. I’ve dedicated my career to him, and since that day, I’ve never lost sight of the goal.

Even though playing Division I baseball seems more like a job than a fun recreational sport, I still try to have the most fun at what I do best. I talk pro baseball with my friends as if I was the General Manager of some organization every day. I talk hitting like I’m Charley Lau. And I talk catching like I’m Thurmon Munson. I love looking at film of other hitters and catchers to see what I can incorporate into my work. I might seem tedious and petty to some, but even the greats learn from others, and I’ve learned from my pops that hard work when no one’s watching is what sets the legends apart from the average.

Another great memory came this past February. We went to Louisiana to play at Nichols State University. It was my first ever trip in college ball. Our warm up run out to the center field was very emotional. I tapped the 401 sign and instantly began tearing up, knowing Paparotsky helped me get here. I remember getting in the box for batting practice shaking hysterically because my nerves had me completely tense. What was even funnier was I did not hit one ball to right field. There was a spray from left-center field to about fifty feet left of the left field foul pole where I hit about 25 baseballs. I got the best talk from my coach that evening. He told me, “If you can hit that well shaking like you have hypothermia, I can’t wait to see what you can do without those nerves.” That weekend, I went 4-4 with my first ever-collegiate hit in my first ever-collegiate game. I thanked the Lord that night for everything he has blessed me with, and I thanked Paparotsky for giving me the opportunity to play.

For the last nine years of my life, I have enjoyed the best of teammates, and my best of friends come from every team I have played on. All of my closest friends played baseball with me at one point or another, and I honestly feel like that bond one shares with his teammates will never be broken. I have learned every life lesson I hold near and dear to me from Baseball. I know that my time is limited in this game, and not everyone can continue to play this game. I feel truly blessed to have the opportunity that I’ve been given by my coaches and teammates, and my love for the game; whether playing, coaching, or watching, will never die out.

The Cardinals dropped a heartbreaker on Wednesday night, losing to Cincinnati 9-8 in thirteen innings. Games that high scoring and that long have multiple story lines, plot twists, and drama. This one could be summarized in two sentences. The good: St Louis fought back from an early 8-0 hole to tie it in the last of the ninth. The bad: Jake Westbrook got shelled, surrendering a double, a triple, and three home runs in 4 1/3 innings. Let’s focus on Jake.

Westbrook has had a rough first half. His 5.34 ERA is ranked 104th out of 111 ‘qualified’ pitchers per Fangraphs (although his xFIP is 4.06, which is only 88th). Last season he rebounded from a nearly similar xFIP with Cleveland (4.24) to post the best xFIP of his career with St Louis (3.51). Last year nine of his 12 Cardinal starts could be classified as quality ones (6 IP or more, 3 ER or less). This year only 5 of 15 starts could be described that way. What is driving his struggles, and can he rebound?

Looking at his 2010 data with the Cardinals, and comparing it with his 2011 to date, a couple of things jump out. His velocity on his three main pitches – fastball, slider, cutter – are roughly the same as last year. He’s still throwing his fastball about 60% of the time. His usage pattern for his off-speed pitches has changed. He’s throwing the slider about half the time (16.4% last year, 9.8% this), and his cutter 4X as much (14.8%, up from 4.7% a year ago). His pitch selection more closely resembles what he did while an Indian in 2010 (14.9% slider, 12.9% cutter), when he posted a 4.65 ERA and that 4.24 xFIP.

Next, his swinging strike percentage is the lowest of his career. Over all of last season hitters swung and came up empty 7.1% of the time, and it was virtually the same in both leagues (7.2% AL, 6.9% NL). This year – 6.1% of all swings are in vain. Additionally, and perhaps related, hitters are making more contact on his pitches located outside of the strike zone. Last year they made contact on 70% of those pitches; this year it’s 75%. These two statistics support the belief he is not locating as well this year as he did last season. The most obvious symptom of bad location is lots of base runners, and Westbrook has had that in spades. His current WHIP is his worst since 2001. His walk rates are up and his strikeouts are down. Opposing hitters are batting .320 on balls in play, their best mark off Jake since 2006.

Although his location has been off this year, his HR’s allowed have not shown a real spike. Last year with the Cardinals only 9.4% of the fly balls he allowed left the yard. This year it is worse, 13.2%, but with a caveat. This year’s percentage is much more in line with his performance in prior seasons. In 2007 it was 10.2%, 2008 16.7%, and in his half of 2010 with Cleveland it was 12.7%. So although he’s not getting as many swinging strikes, and opposing hitters are making more contact on pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s constantly pitching with guys on base, he’s not surrendering home runs at an abnormally high rate.

Given all that data, we can make one reasonably easy recommendation and one hard one for a better second half. Easy: he should use the All-Star break to re-evaluate how often he throws his slider and cutter, and adjust them to his second-half 2010 levels. Hard: he needs to re-discover his command and locate better both in and out of the strike zone. Better location will drive his base runner numbers down and help him get deeper into ballgames with better results. Otherwise his second half in 2011 will look maddingly like his first.

Well on the bright side, the Cardinals won’t face Tim Lincecum this trip.

After dropping 4 of 6 at home to start the season, to the expected lowly Padres and the perennially lowly Pirates, St Louis swings west for 9 games. The Left Coast has not been particularly kind or unkind to the Cardinals since Albert Pujols started pummeling baseballs on their behalf.

Of the three cities they will visit – San Francisco, Arizona, and Los Angeles – only the Giants hold a winning record over them at home. St Louis is 13-17 in the City by the Bay since the start of the 2001 season. In contrast, they are 19-16 in the Desert and 16-14 in the City of Our Lady Queen of the Angels (yes the official name of that hamlet is El Pubelo de la Reina de Los Angeles). Most of those wins came in the early part of the past decade. Since their 2006 World Championship, the Cardinals are 6-9 in Arizona, 5-7 in Los Angeles, and 4-8 in San Francisco.

With that recent trend in mind do not expect the Cardinals Opening Week woes to be cured soon. St Louis has yet to score more than 3 runs in any game this season, and San Francisco’s pitching staff is one of the best in the game. St Louis projects to face Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain, and Barry Zito. Sanchez won his only start against the Cardinals at home (in 2009), Cain and Zito are each 1-2 lifetime at SBC Park versus St Louis. If the Cardinals were firing on all cylinders, those matchups might be encouraging.

In Arizona they project to face Barry Enright, Armando Galarraga, and Ian Kennedy. Arizona will probably not compete for a playoff spot in 2011 but their team, especially their rotation, is intriguing and bodes of future success. Enright, Galarraga, and Kennedy epitomize that bright future. Enright was a mid-season call-up and posted a 109 ERA+ in 17 starts. He beat the Cardinals in his major league debut. Galarraga is the former Detroit Tiger pitcher who famously almost threw a perfect game last year. He started one game 3 years ago against St Louis and did not figure in the decision. Kennedy is a former New York Yankee who came to Arizona as part of the Curtis Granderson trade. He has never faced the Cardinals.

It is a little early to project the Dodger rotation for their series with St Louis, but it could be Kuroda, Kershaw, and Billingsley if (a) the Dodger rotation stays as is, and (b) they throw their #5 starter on Monday 11 April, whomever that will be. The Cardinals would see Los Angeles’ two top pitchers in that series.

The Cardinals have sputtered out of the gate, but it is unreasonable to expect this team to play .333 ball the entire year. There is just too much talent on the roster. St Louis will break out of it. Given their recent troubles on the west coast, it may not be during the next nine games.

Mike Metzger blogs about the Cardinals at Stan Musial’s Stance.