Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

KANSAS CITY, MO (November 28, 2012) — The Kansas City Royals announced today that the club has acquired minor league right-handed pitcher Luis Santos and left-hander Luis Rico from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for right-handed pitcher Vin Mazzaro and first baseman Clint Robinson.  Santos and Rico have been assigned to the Surprise Royals.

The 21-year-old Santos pitched for both Dominican Pirates clubs last season, combining for a 6-3 record and a 2.44 ERA in 14 games, including 12 starts.  In 62.2 innings, he allowed 42 hits, walked 20 and struck out 74 while holding opponents to a .184 average.  The 6-foot Santos is from Bonao, Dominican Republic, and was signed by Pittsburgh as a non-drafted free agent on April 8, 2011.

Rico, who will turn 19 tomorrow, is a 6-foot-1, 180-pounder from Guanta, Venezuela.  He went 0-1 with a 7.04 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) in 2012 for the Dominican Pirates.  Rico made his debut in 2011 with the Venezuelan Pirates after signing with Pittsburgh as a non-drafted free agent on April 9, 2011.

Mazzaro, 26, and Robinson, 27, were designated for assignment by the Royals on November 20.

In baseball, you can never have enough pitching and the Royals figure you can’t have enough hitting coaches. The Royals hired Jack Maloof as their new hitting coach and Andre David as the assistant hitting coach for the 2013 season, replacing the departed Kevin Seitzer.

Maloof, 63, spent the last five seasons as special assistant to player development and hitting coordinator. He was in the Atlanta organization from 2002-07 and the Marlins’ hitting coach from 1999-2001. Maloof will be the primary on-field batting coach.

David, 54, has been a part of the Royals organization for 14 years. He was the Royals Minor League hitting coach from May 2005 to May 2006. For the last three seasons, David was the hitting coach for Surprise in the Rookie Arizona League. David will assist Maloof with batting coach duties.

With both Maloof and David being a part of the Royals organization, they have familiarity with the current Major League players and players in the Minor League system. The 2012 Royals were fourth in the A.L. with a .265 batting average, but were 12th in the A.L. with 676 runs scored and tied for last in the A.L. with 131 home runs. Maloof and David hope to improve the Royals power hitting and home run totals.

But why two hitting coaches? There’s concern two hitting coaches might send mixed signals to the players, but Maloof and David insist they work well together and are on the same page hitting wise. If that’s the case, they can work on two different players at the same time, being able to coach more players. And though the hitting philosophy of Maloof and David are likely to be the same, some players might “click” better with one of the coaches, increasing their chances to improve their hitting. Of course there’s the danger of the players forming “cliques,” liking one coach over the other, which could cause friction.

There’s also the “extra set of eyes” from David that gives Maloof another perspective. During games, David will be in the stands, observing batters to see what they’re doing right or doing wrong. Maloof can use the information to improve the Royals hitting.

Many teams have their pitching coach as the “primary” coach and their bullpen coach as the “assistant” pitching coach, so it’s not too far fetched to have two hitting coaches. The Giants, Tigers, Braves, Cardinals, Phillies and Padres have two hitting coaches. The Giants and Tigers are in the World Series, and the Braves and Cardinals made the playoffs, so there’s the argument two hitting coaches can be successful. With the hire of Maloof and David, The Royals are the second A.L. team to employ two hitting coaches.

The promotions of Maloof and David won’t magically propel the Royals above .500 and into the playoffs. The Royals main focus this off season is starting pitching. But they need players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas to reach their offensive potential and the team needs to score more runs. The Royals hope Maloof and David will take the team’s offense to the next level. Who knows, maybe they’ll get Chris Getz hitting opposite field home runs. Hey, they’re hitting coaches, not miracle workers.

It would not be a St. Louis Cardinals Spring Training without health questions surrounding a key player, and once again a member of the starting rotation is awaiting test results analysis and a diagnosis before throwing again. But the name attached this time is all too familiar to these situations: Chris Carpenter.

All the facts of this story can be found in Joe Strauss’s STLtoday piece from Friday. Right now, no one really knows much about the cause of Carpenter’s neck discomfort, but updates should start trickling in this weekend as the information makes its way back to Florida from St. Louis.

The real question on everyone’s minds is simple, though. What now?

It’s hard to get too panicked over this news because, honestly, it cannot be that big of a surprise. Carpenter’s injury history is checkered, to say the least, and he threw over 270 innings in 2011 (including the postseason). No one should claim they saw this coming, but when the word came in how many had a reaction similar to “Ah…Carpenter has an injury? OK then.” Hearing about Carpenter battling through something is different than hearing about Adam Wainwright last year. Wainwright was young and durable. Carpenter is neither. But speaking of Wainwright, the Cardinals certainly managed to right the ship after his departure and ended the 2011 season on a bit of a high note. Who says they can’t do the same thing in 2012 if Carpenter ends up having to miss significant time?

Unfortunately, it may be an even longer shot this time around. Last year, the Cards had a healthy Carpenter ready to step in and take the ace role in Wainwright’s absence. This year, the Cards have Wainwright back—but he is not 100% yet. He may not be at any time in 2012. So the team cannot and should not expect him to pick up all of the slack and toss 200+ innings this season. If he ends up doing that, great. But counting on it would be a mistake.

One more thing the Cards should absolutely, positively stay away from at all costs is another bullpen-to-rotation-to-bullpen song and dance with Kyle McClellan. Last year, McClellan started off pretty well as a starter. But once Edwin Jackson was acquired, McClellan was no longer needed for the rotation. Back to the bullpen he went, but the innings had already taken a toll. By the end of 2011 McClellan was gassed. They really need to let him stick with one thing, and he has proven several times he can handle a full season as a reliever.

Remember the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes of a couple months ago? Still going on, except now no one is trying. Oswalt is a free agent and perhaps could be a candidate for a spot in the Cards’ rotation if Carpenter can’t go for a while. The Redbirds could also look internally for a young pitcher to step in for some starts if Carpenter is only expected to miss a few weeks. But, again, messing with the integrity of the bullpen by “promoting” a reliever to the rotation could prove to be a mistake with the potential of affecting both sections of the pitching staff. Maybe a Triple A pitcher chomping at the bit gets a look at Busch Stadium this year…

No one has all the answers yet, but you can bet the questions will continue to mount. Perhaps this is just a minor speed bump with little to no effect on the regular season. Or perhaps it is more. Hopefully the news over the weekend into next week is good news.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

Just as quickly as the Kansas City Royals’ minor league system was the best in all of baseball, it wasn’t. That sort of ranking isn’t meant to last, and it really isn’t something you can repeat, nor would you want to.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

The farm system sent a treasure trove of talent Kansas City’s way in 2011, but that meant that the number one ranking from Baseball America was just a fleeting alignment of the stars.

This season’s rankings will look night and day different from a year ago. While last season the Royals placed eight players in the top 100 (not counting Jake Odorizzi), this season their prospects will rank considerably lower. With Moustakas, Hosmer and Duffy having matriculated to the big leagues, it’s likely the remaining players ranked last season will drop on this year’s list.

Wil Myers came in at #10 last year. After battling injuries last season, he’ll likely drop in this year’s ranking.

John Lamb was in the #18 spot before blowing out his arm and going under the knife. If he makes it in the top 100 at all, it will be more a vote of confidence in Lamb’s surgeon than in his pitching.

Baseball America has released its ranking of the top 10 for each organization. Last year’s #19 overall, Mike Montgomery, is in the top spot in the Royals’ Top 10 this year. He struggled mightily last year and probably won’t rate that highly this year, even though he’ll be given a shot to make the big league club.

Christian Colon, last year’s #51, won’t continue to get credit for his collegiate accomplishments for much longer. If he’s ranked at all, it will be a surprise.

Odorizzi, who was rated #69, is rated fourth in the Royals franchise this year, and therefore might not move up in the overall list.

Chris Dwyer, after a mediocre season at Double A last year, won’t repeat last year’s #83 ranking.

So with Hosmer, Moustakas and Duffy moving off the list, and everyone else moving down, things are looking bleak. A few newcomers should provide a little bit of silver lining to this otherwise dark cloud, however.

Baseball America ranks Bubba Starling #2 in the organization, even though he’s done nothing right on the field and everything wrong off it so far. He’ll be somewhere in the top half of the list, most likely.

And look for 19-year-old Cheslor Cuthbert to break in somewhere, after two promising seasons at the lowest levels of the farm system.

Here is Baseball America’s ranking of players within the Royals’ organization this winter:

1) Mike Montgomery
2) Bubba Starling
3) Will Myers, outfielder
4) Jake Odorizzi, RHP
5) Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B
6) John Lamb, RHP
7) Kelvin Herrera, RHP
8) Jason Adam, RHP
9) Chris Dwyer, LHP
10) Yordano Ventura, RHP

And while we wait for Baseball America to announce it’s top 100 list, MLB.com announced this week its top 10 at each position. And predictably, Royals prospects, which dominated the lists last season, were few and far between this year.

Compare last year’s Royals entrants to this year’s:

2012 MLB position rankings:

#3 Outfielder (Starling)
#4 Outfielder (Myers)
#7 Left Handed Pitcher (Montgomery)

2011 MLB position rankings:

#1 First Baseman (Hosmer)
#10 Second Baseman (Johnny Giavotella)
#1 Third Baseman (Moustakas)
#2 Catcher (Myer)
#2 Left Handed Pitcher (Montgomery)
#9 Left Handed Pitcher (Lamb)

There are still tons of things to be excited about in the Royals’ developmental program, but a top ranking won’t be one of them.

Nonetheless, the team now has several players that are about one year away from the big leagues – most notably Montgomery, Lamb, Myers and Odorizzi. And for them, this season will be a huge one, ranking or no ranking.

I haven’t forgiven Zack Greinke quite yet. Not after he manipulated his way into a trade out of town, then publicly criticized the city, the Royals, the Plaza, Arthur Bryant’s BBQ, Worlds of Fun, and everything else Kansas Citians hold dear.

Good riddance, I said, and I swore to root against Zack at his every stop from here on. I don’t care if Dayton Moore said recently Greinke “will always be a Royal.” He won’t be in my book.

Well, here he is, exactly where he belongs, pitching on the big stage, and good for him.

No, I’ll probably never forgive him, but I must say, this is where he belongs. A young man with his extraordinary talent ought to be battling it out with the best in the sport in the biggest games of the season.

Greinke was never much of a team player. He often seemed distant and distracted. He seemed somewhat “me-first.” But no one ever questioned whether he was a competitor. So when he took the mound Sunday for the second of consecutive starts on three days rest, it should have come as no surprise.

Greinke wants to win, and he wants to compete on the biggest stage. And he is getting his wish. But as Frank Sinatra might say about the precocious 27-year old hurler “He did it his way.”

He started out the season with typically head-scratching Greinke-esqe absurdity. After costing the Brewers a small fortune, he injured himself off the field and started the season on the disabled list. At the same time he bashed the Royals and spoiled his legacy in KC.

When he finally took the field, he wasn’t sharp. Were it not for the potent Brewers’ bats backing him up, his first half could have been disastrous. After six May starts, his ERA was 5.29. Three good starts were overshadowed by two horrendous ones in June, and the kid entered July with a 6.04 ERA.

The thing he never lacked, however, was strikeouts. In spite of the rust, Greinke mowed down 80 hitters in just 62.1 innings through June.

Greinke got tough when the Brewers needed him most. His August and September numbers were solid: 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA, even if the strikeouts took a dip to about one per inning.

When Milwaukee had a chance to lock down the division title, Greinke pitched on three days rest. He wasn’t perfect, but he managed six innings to get the win in the season finale.

Then on Sunday, he took the hill again, once again on three days rest. Still far from perfect, Greinke gave up three homers in just five innings.

But he wanted to be on the mound. He wanted the ball. He wanted to battle for his team, to help the Brewers advance in the playoffs. In doing so, he helped the team straighten out its rotation for the next several games. In short, he fulfilled the role of an ace.

Greinke may not have been Sandy Koufax when pitching on three days rest, but he also may not have to pitch as much, now that the Brewers have cleared the initial hurdle. Greinke answered the bell and he’s in an enviable position now to pitch deep into the playoffs.

Enviable, that is, to Royals fans. No, I haven’t forgiven Zack Greinke. Not yet.

I am not a real statistician, I just play one on the internet. I chose my college partially because they did not require me to take any math courses. But when it comes to baseball, the numbers come alive for me, and it is fun to dig into the advanced stuff that others do and see what I can make of it. I also have zero scouting eye and have no reason to make judgments based on what I’ve seen with my eyes. But hey, I’ve watched a ton of Royals games the last few years, so I do have some opinions. Ill informed opinions are still opinions, right? With a huge grain of salt in hand, let’s dive in and see what, if anything, the numbers and my eyeballs can tell us about the defense of the 2011 Royals.

Team

Ultimate zone rating (UZR) and defensive runs saved (DRS) both agree that the team as a whole has been totally OK. UZR has the team at -1.7 runs below average while DRS says -7 runs. That’s good for 8th (UZR) and 9th (DRS) in the AL. The team ranked either 13th or 14th in the league in both measures in 2009 and 2010, so they show fairly significant improvement. That matches what I have seen. I might rate the 2011 team as slightly above average instead of slightly below, but maybe that is a result of lowered expectations after watching terrible defensive teams the previous two seasons. Either way, the defense seems to have done no great harm nor been a major boon.

Catcher

Quantifying catcher defense is so murky that UZR and DRS do not even attempt it. I like this method, which at last check in July showed Brayan Pena as +1.7 runs above average (RAA) and Matt Treanor at -1.7. To my eyes, I would expect those numbers to be reversed. Matt Treanor was a fantastic surprise this year, and I was disappointed to see him go. He seemed to actually do the things that veteran catchers get credit for all the time but I usually can not see myself. As someone said this year, he did the things Jason Kendall was supposed to do and at a fraction of the cost. Pena has seemed passable to me behind the dish, and in general has done a good job blocking the plate, but then driven fans crazy with a couple of ugly brain farts when he seemed to try to block the plate from the next zip code. As another person of forgotten identity said, the issue on those plays did not seem to be guts but a lack of mechanics and athleticism. Moving forward, the only catcher that will really matter is Sal Perez. He burst onto the major league scene by picking off two runners in his debut. Scouts cannot believe their stopwatches after clocking his throw to second. If he can avoid injury, the Royals should have a real beast behind the plate for the foreseeable future.

1st Base

This is the one spot where the numbers really make you scratch your head. Every defensive metric indicates that Hosmer has been simply awful with the glove. Even those who buy fully into the newer metrics warn they are especially vulnerable to small sample size issues, so any numbers this early in Hosmer’s career are pretty worthless. It is still surprising that UZR rates him as the worst defensive 1B in the majors this year and DRS has his defense costing the team 17 runs below average. I don’t think anyone believes Hosmer has been that bad, but I will say he hasn’t looked entirely like the defensive wizard he was reputed to be. He has seemed good overall, but there have been several balls go by him I expected him to get. I imagine just a few of those dribbling past him has destroyed his range rating thanks to a small sample. It is also important to note that “scoops” are not figured into either UZR or DRS, and Hosmer has aided the team defense plenty with his digs in the dirt. As the old-timers used to say, he can really pick it. Hosmer should be a plus defender at first for years to come. I will be keeping a close eye on his defensive metrics to see if they continue to refute what most are seeing with their eyes. I expect they will start to normalize.

2nd Base

Just as the front office and the fan base do not seem to agree about Chris Getz‘s defense, UZR and DRS see him differently too. UZR rates him at 5.5 runs above average, good for sixth among 2nd base regulars. DRS is more in line with the fans I hear from: 1 RAA. Barely better than average. Regardless, it seemed clear to many whatever marginal advantage his glove may have brought was negated by his weak bat. The front office finally relented and replaced him as the regular with Johnny Giavotella, who, according to the organization, was the polar opposite: all bat, no glove. It is too early to come to any conclusions regarding Gio’s glove, but so far, he has looked perfectly fine to me, and made several highlight reel plays in the field. Manager Ned Yost continuing to insert Getz as a defensive replacement late in close games seems bizarre, partly because I am not sure Getz is even an improvement, but mostly because it is paramount at this point in the season to get Giavotella as much MLB experience as possible.

3rd Base

There were plenty concerns about Mike Moustakas‘s ability to play the field before his promotion, but so far, he has exceeded my expectations. He has an odd quirk of double clutching/not being able to grab the ball out of his glove too often, but hopefully that will decrease. UZR has him at +3 runs, DRS at -2. Either way: fine. Not an embarrassment like some were fearing. That is all he needs to do in the field. Anything more is gravy.

photo courtesy MindaHaas.net

Shortstop

Alcides Escobar played out of his mind defense during the first half, earning the nickname The Shortstop Jesus somewhere along the way. Ridiculous plays were the norm. He has quietly been less spectacular in the second half of the year. Not bad, just not as noticeable. The numbers back this up. Two months ago when I took a look at Escobar, he had 6.3 UZR and 10 DRS ratings, good for second in the majors in both categories among shortstops. His UZR has bumped up marginally to 7.4 since then, down to third in the league. DRS reflects a steep dropoff, knocking him all the way down to a current rating of 5 DRS, 12th best in MLB. There is no doubt Escobar is an excellent defensive shortstop, but his early season acrobatics was probably the peak of his abilities. If he falls off much from that level, and his bat remains non-existent, he will not even be an average overall player. Hopefully we will see more of the jaw-dropping Escobar than the merely good Escobar at short in the coming years.

Left Field

The highlight in just about every way this season has been Alex Gordon, and defense is no exception. I would not argue with you much if you said Escobar has been the more valuable fielder, but UZR and DRS both rate Gordon’s defense as more valuable, and I’m not going to argue with that either. Alex has the best LF UZR (8.8) and fifth best LF DRS (8). As others have observed, he plays the outfield like a third baseman, closing on balls in a flash and featuring a ridiculously strong and accurate arm. He has tracked down every ball you could ask him to, and set a new franchise record with 20 outfield assists. What a year.

Center Field

Melky Cabrera was in on the outfield assist spree earlier in the year, but as that has slowed down, his lack of range has emerged as more of a problem. He is a corner outfielder miscast in the center of the huge Kauffmaun Stadium outfield. UZR ranks him 18th out of 20 qualified center fielders at -9.9 runs. DRS is slightly kinder with a -6 rating. He has been the weakest link in an otherwise decent team defense. The arm seems fine, but he lacks the closing speed needed in a true center fielder. With Gordon and Jeff Francoeur sure bets to return to the corners next year, Royals brass will have to decide if they want to live with another year of Melky’s sub par defense in center or make the probable defensive upgrade by promoting Lorenzo Cain.

Right Field

Jeff Francoeur is somewhat like Melky – good arm, not so good range. That combo is of course hidden better in a corner. Plus, his arm is much better than Melky’s. Frenchy leads the majors in OF assists since his career began in 2005. The arm component in UZR, which takes into account runners not challenging his arm, rates his arm at a cumulative 53.7 RAA from 2005-11. The second best arm rating in that time is less than half that total (Alex Rios, 25.9). The arm is a sight to behold, which it has to be to make up for his unimpressive range. According to UZR, his arm alone has been worth 8.7 RAA this season, but his range has come at a cost of -8.4 RAA. Almost a wash; his overall UZR comes to half a run above average. DRS likes him slightly better at 5 RAA. Both measures put him about middle of the pack overall among right fielders.

With most or all of the current position players set to return in 2012, the outlook for next year’s defense is good. At worst it should not be a liability, and could turn into a real strength.

SEVEN ROYALS TO COMPETE FOR SURPRISE IN THE 2011 ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE

KANSAS CITY, MO (August 30, 2011) – The Arizona Fall League and the Kansas City Royals announced today seven players from the Royals organization who will compete for the Surprise Saguaros in the 2011 Arizona Fall League. The Royals prospects are right-handed pitchers Nate Adcock, Jeremy Jeffress and Bryan Paukovits, left-handed pitcher Brendan Lafferty, first baseman Clint Robinson, shortstop Christian Colon and outfielder Wil Myers.

2011 marks the 20th season of the Arizona Fall League, created by Major League Baseball in 1992 to serve as an off-season league for top prospects. The season will begin on Tuesday, October 4.

The Royals were supposed to be the whipping children of the American League. The team, the fans, and every expert around the country stressed that this would be a team to watch in 2012 and 2013. The farm system was the most exciting thing about the entire franchise and it would be the youth movement in the next few years that would lead the Royals back to glory.

Then the season started and the rag-tag bunch of players showed they were fit to play now. They got production from players that the rest of the league laughed at when the Royals announced them as acquisitions. Pitchers threw far beyond their expectations. And the team won.

Jeff Francoeur has emerged as a leader of this team. Most thought that Frenchy was brought in as a stop gap veteran to help the young guys adjust. Francoeur stepped up in April and showed that he was brought in to help a team win. He leads the team with five home runs and twenty runs batted in and his .314 average has shown that he is ready to be the veteran leader that this team needs.

Alex Gordon had dominated. Gordon himself said that this would be the year he dominated. Fans everywhere rolled their eyes at a young player that was overstepping his bounds without anything to base the claim off of. Then the calendar flipped to opening day and Alex Gordon started playing baseball. When April came to a close, Gordon would lead the team with a .339 batting average and would start to realize his gap power potential as he leads the team with twelve doubles. He finds himself among the league leaders in runs scored (3rd, 20), hits (3rd, 27), doubles (2nd) and batting average (5th).

Before the season we looked at what the team needed to do in each month to ensure a solid season. Let’s take a look at what we said they needed to do and what they accomplished.

April Breakdown:

Total Games: 27 (14 – 13 record)

Home: 16 (11 – 5)

Road: 11 (3 – 8)

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 15 (10 – 5)

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 12 (4 – 8)

Vs teams in the AL Central: 16 (8 – 8)

Key Series:

March 31-April 3 vs Los Angeles –

What we said going in: The Angels are being picked by many experts to win the AL West this year and will provide an immediate test for the Royals this season. That being said, the subtext that everyone in Kansas City is talking about revolves around the “Double Header” being billed on April 2nd. That night, following the game with the Angels, the Royals top two farm teams will do battle at Kauffman Stadium, allowing the fans in Kansas City to get a glimpse of the future that lays ahead of the franchise.

The Result: After dropping the home opener, the Royals ripped off three straight wins and showed the league very early on that they planned on being competitive. The futures game on April 2nd was all it was billed to be, but was overshadowed by a major league club that was fighting to be seen as the main attraction.

April 14-21 vs Seattle and Cleveland –

What we said going in: This may be the key week to the early season for the Royals. Some people are wondering if the Royals are not as bad as many are predicting them. If the Royals are to put together a successful season in the win-loss column, it will have to be solidified with wins over teams that are honestly worse than they are. This week projects as a battle between three teams that many pick to be the worst in the American League and will give the Royals an opportunity to prove that they are more than just going through the motions in 2011.

The Result: If the Royals are one of the surprise teams in April, Cleveland is the top of that heap. We said the team needed to win against teams that were worse than them, but we had no idea just how good Cleveland would be to open the season. A split with the Indians in a four game set and taking three of four from the Mariners was just what we thought the team needed.

Key To a Hot Start:

What we said: The Royals do not need a hot start. The team needs to be patient and develop their young players. If they are to separate themselves from the lower half of the American League, they need to take advantage of games against Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit. They will be tested early by the likes of Minnesota and Chicago and coming away with a .500 record against those teams will go a long way in to convincing fans that the team has improved.

The Result: This team finished the month above .500 but finished at 7-7 against the teams we said they needed to provide winning records against.

At the end of April:

What we said: If the Royals have 14+ wins… they have stepped up and shown that they are not to be considered with the worst teams. Fourteen wins is not out of reach in April, looking at the schedule. If they win each series with Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit they will have won ten games. A single win against the Angels, White Sox, Twins, and Rangers will get them to fourteen wins and a record that is above .500.

What we’re saying now: Looks like a step in the right direction for the rebuilding Royals. A focus on patience with the farm system will go a long way into turning April 2011 into a successful 2012.

The Royals have surprised everyone and now will be judged on whether or not they can keep up. The team put a target on themselves by winning long before anyone expected them to. They finished the month on a down turn, but still are well within striking distance of making this a solid season.

Only time will tell.

19 games into the season, and the Royals have pulled off a surprising stretch of winning baseball. Fans have found themselves walking a tightrope between excitement and skepticism, with the memory of 2009′s 18-11 start and ensuing collapse still fresh. Personally, I will never complain about wins, and the 2011 Royals have been a blast so far, but my hopes for the remainder of the season remain tempered with a healthy dose of wait-and-see.

The Royals, now at 12-7, will have their first winning record after 20 games since 2003, and only the second since 1989. How much of a team’s true talent level is revealed after 20 games? Looking back at the Royals past, the answer could be “more than I expected.” In a surprising number of years, the team’s winning percentage after 20 games has been fairly similar to their final tally. Only once has a Royals team had a winning record after 20 contests but finished the season with a losing mark (1983). (If you are wondering where that 2009 team is, they just missed the cut by being .500 after 20 games.) And only five teams have dug themselves out of a losing 20 game start to finish above .500 (’84, ’87, ’91, ’93, ’94). That means 86% of Royals teams (36/42) have finished above or below .500 when having a similar winning or losing record after 20 games.

Getting a little more technical, the statistical correlation between the winning percentage after the first 20 games and at the end of the season for Royals teams is .42 (0 meaning no correlation, 1 meaning perfect correlation). So obviously there is still a lot of wiggle room after 20 games. But to a larger degree than I expected, teams that are winners after 20 games tend to be winners at the end of the season, and teams that are losers after 20 games tend to be losers after 162. Let’s hope that holds true this year.

Royals seasons 1969--2010

Best 20 Game Start: 16-4 in 2003; Final record: 83-79

The surprise to me in this exercise has been how few fluky starts the Royals have had, but of course there have been a few. Clearly, this was one, but fluky or not, it did lead to a fun summer of contention and the only winning Royals season in the last two million years.

Worst 20 Game Start: 3-17 in 1992; Final record: 72-90

A flukily bad start, but in the broader sense, correctly reflective of an actually bad team.

Limiting this exercise to Royals history may skew things a little. Because their history is generally drastically split between very good years and very bad years, perhaps it should not be surprising that Royals teams usually are showing their colors after 20 games. Looking at the more varied pool of all 2010 teams, seven squads flipped from above or below .500 after 20 games to the opposite at the end of the season, meaning 77% of teams finished on the same side of the .500 line. In 2009, eight teams flopped between winners/losers after 20 and 162 games (73% stayed the same).

We are moving out of the embryonic stage of the season, with win-loss records compiling to the point where teams will be trying to build on a good start or dig out of a bad one from here on out. Whatever the rest of the year may hold, it is nice for the Royals to be in a position of strength after 20 games for a change.

Off season baseball is upon us, free agency is in full swing, and all 30 teams are now squarely focused on 2011. Our writers here at I-70 Baseball will be focused on the future as well but we have some unfinished business to attend to first. Before we take our look forward to 2011, we must first wrap up 2010.

The Cardinals and Royals opened up their seasons in very different places. The Cardinals were the odds-on-favorites to win their division and challenge for the top spot in the National League. Most experts predicted the Royals to show improvement over recent performance, but still fall well short of the top of the division.

By the time the dust settled on the 2010 season, the Cardinals would miss the playoffs in a season that many said would be considered a disappointment without a world series appearance. A second place finish to a surprise Cincinnati Reds ball club left the Cardinals reeling with an 86-76 record and a fan base that wondered what went wrong.

The Royals, on the other hand, would finish the season with a disappointing 67-95 record, but an optimistic fan base as they began to look to the farm system to produce some top talent. They would finish last in the division behind the Cleveland Indians, change managers, and start to restructure their roster.

The real story is how they got there. Which positions and players provided the positive spots and which provided the pratfalls? Who turned in the most impressive offensive season and which hurler would be the best for their team? That is what we will aim to shed some light on over the next ten days.

Starting on November 10 and running through November 20, the staff here at I-70 will break down the players at each position for both the Cardinals and the Royals. On November 19 and November 20, we will award our players of the year awards to the teams, with a position player and a pitcher being profiled for each team.

We hope you enjoy our look back at the 2010 season and our profiles of the various players that spent time with the franchises this year.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.