Tag Archive | "Strasburg"

Cardinals/Nationals: Three Things to Walk With

After a tough end to the weekend on Sunday night in Philadelphia, the Cardinals rebounded nicely a day later and haven’t let up yet. The club pulled off its first series sweep of the season against the Washington Nationals in DC, wrapping it up against their ace Stephen Strasburg on Wednesday afternoon. It was the club’s first return back to DC since the improbable end of their Division Series matchup in the city last October. All in all, the longest road trip of the season ended with an impressive 6-3 record, with one game lost to rain. And as the club returns back home a half game ahead in the NL Central, here are three things to take from tilt with the Nationals.

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1.Fear the Koz: Clearly Nationals fans have not forgotten the last time Pete Kozma made an appearance in their city. Kozma was routinely booed through the series each time he stepped to the plate, as an after effect of the two run single he plated to complete the Cardinal comeback in the decisive game of the 2012’s Division Series. Kozma, who is rather stoic even on a regular day, was also unflappable at the plate for the series. Despite the constant outpour of boos, he had four hits in nine at-bats for the series, and played his usual hard nose style on the basepaths. On the year, he’s turned in a respectable .262/.306/.675 effort thus far, and has been one of the most consistent everyday performers on the club.

2. Missing in Action: Jon Jay, who has been knees deep in a major slump, was sat down the last two games of the series. With lefty Ross Detwiler on the mound on Tuesday, it seemed to be a matchup move, yet when he sat again versus Strasberg on Wednesday, it became clear that the intention perhaps is to let him get all the way relaxed and back in Busch Stadium (where he is a career .329 hitter, yet only .250 in 2013) before putting him back in the mix again. His prolonged slump has dropped his season total at the plate to .205, which is tough to stomach out the leadoff spot. While a drop down to seventh didn’t help him much to start the series, he did manage a crucial sliding grab in the 8th inning of Monday’s victory.

3. Mujica makes a way: For now, the Chief is in charge. Edward Mujica, who was really turned to as the last reasonable resort in the bullpen for the closer position, turned in series that has (for the time being) fanned the flames on much maligned closer role. He saved each game in the series, without surrendering a hit in the process. He pitched to contact, striking out only one batter, but has maintained the impeccable control that’s made him the exception in the late inning mix all year (one walk in nine appearances). While he doesn’t have the track record or the stuff that Boggs and Rosenthal boast, there’s nobody else that’s even gotten close the effectiveness he’s shown thus far.

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Shutdown Theory

Ligament Replacement Surgery—known better by the moniker “Tommy John Surgery”—is almost a foregone conclusion for Major League pitchers today. Teams practically build their rotations and, many times, entire seasons around when, not if, a certain pitcher will need to take a year or two off for an elbow rebuild. In 2012, the most famous case is that of Stephen Strasburg of the first place Washington Nationals. But the St. Louis Cardinals may have a similar case to review regarding their ace Adam Wainwright.

Saturday, the Nationals announced Strasburg will be shut down for the rest of 2012, including any postseason games the Nats might play. Strasburg underwent his procedure on September 3, 2010—two full years ago. Conventional wisdom suggests a pitcher needs anywhere from 12-18 months of rehab before he is truly ready to return to form on the mound, and most hurlers don’t feel back to 100% until two years after the surgery. Technically, Strasburg should be hitting his stride right about now. Imagine the boost the Nats would be getting from that, assuming they were close to where they currently are. Instead, they’re forced to go the rest of the season without their de facto ace. Arguments and hindsight from both sides are numerous: should he have rehabbed at all in 2011…should he have started 2012 late…the Nationals are doing this to protect his and their futures…this is just another power flex from Scott Boras…how can the Nats do this to their fanbase…how can they not do it…etc.

The Cards are in a somewhat similar situation with Wainwright, though the scales are vastly different. The righty underwent his procedure February 28, 2011, and was in training camp less than one year later. Wainwright started the Cards’ home opener—albeit to little success—and hasn’t missed a start yet. As the 2012 season progressed, Wainwright seemed to get stronger. Aside from the occasional hiccup, he looked to be inching closer to pre-surgery form right before our eyes. Cardinal coaching and front office eyes, however, were no doubt laser-focused on his health the entire time. And while the Cardinals also have to ponder the future, their perspective is quite different: coming off a World Series victory that punctuated perpetual success under Tony La Russa, followed by a complete sea-change with the transition to Mike Matheny…losing Chris Carpenter at the start of 2012…could Wainwright have rested a few more months and joined the team mid-year…only having Wainwright under contract one more season, with designs on trying to re-sign him…the Cards are still in a dogfight for a return to the postseason…etc.

Ironically, the two pitchers’ last few outings have been similarly bad. Strasburg pitched well against the Cards last week, but that start was bookended by giving up five earned runs in each of two outings—one of five innings, one of three. Wainwright’s last two starts have been even worse: six earned runs in less than three innings and five earned runs over five innings. Under normal circumstances, these events could be looked at as a slump or even just a radar blip for two pitchers so obviously better than the numbers they posted. But is it more than just irony that Strasburg’s stumble came as he inched closer to the 160 IP limit the Nats originally discussed, or that Wainwright seems to be losing gas as he hits 18 months since his surgery?

Wainwright has said that failing to repeat the proper arm slot has led to his bump in the road, not soreness or fatigue. But fatigue is sometimes just as much a symptom of mechanical issues as anything else. And even if he cannot perceive something being off—or simply can’t fix it—Wainwright runs the risk of injuring himself in other areas.

That’s not to say the Cardinals have to shut down Wainwright like the Nationals are doing for Strasburg. Even with all the similarities, the two cases have differences too: namely, Wainwright being a veteran, being older, not being as much of a power pitcher, etc. But the situation definitely bears watching, especially if Wainwright’s starts continue to go badly. And if Carpenter ends up able to pitch at all in 2012, perhaps that’s a scenario where Waino can at least get some extra rest.

Every pitcher is different, so it’s tough to assign hard numbers and come up with the right answer every time. And any ill effects for these two teams either way are still weeks to months away from being truly known, if they ever are at all. No team should ever give up on a season, especially one that includes a legitimate shot at postseason play. The Nationals know what price they were willing to pay regarding Strasburg, and they believe they just hit their limit. Do the Cardinals know their price regarding Wainwright? Will they know when they’ve hit it?

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

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What Might Have Been for Steve Busby?

“What might have been?” Four sadder words were never uttered by a sports fan, and we all know a story for which those words fit.

Look no further than Bo Jackson, his career in both football and baseball cut short by a horrific hip injury. Or Gale Sayers, the most electrifying runner in football before knee injuries in back-to-back seasons stole his ability at just 26 years of age.

The most graceful, powerful, gifted of athletes are not immune to injury, and few things are more tragic than when an immense talent is neutralized by such an injury.

Baseball, like all sports, has countless numbers of such stories. Well documented in recent years is the plight of Mark Prior, one of the most coveted of pitching prospects in history. Prior was Stephen Strasburg before the media hype. He signed an enormous rookie contract, dominated every level of his rise to the major leagues and was set for stardom at age 22 when injuries began plaguing him. Now 30, he hasn’t pitched in a major league game since the age of 25.

Strasburg is now in the same boat as Prior, battling to return from Tommy John surgery at just 22.

The Royals regrettably have their own “what might have been” story. A name burned not only into the minds of older Royals fans but one forever etched in the team’s Hall of Fame, Steve Busby fell victim to arm injuries when he was poised to become the Royals’ first great pitcher.

The Royals drafted Busby out of USC in 1971, where he’d attended originally because of a dream of playing football. Injuries had already plagued Busby. A high school knee injury proved a red flag to the San Francisco Giants, who drafted him in 1967. They reduced their contractual offer to Busby, prompting him to elect to go to college. The injury also nixed his plans to play football.

When Busby arrived in Kansas City in 1972, the ace of the staff was Dick Drago, who’d been the mainstay of the Royals’ staff since the team’s inception in 1969. Drago had accumulated a record of 49-56 over the team’s first four seasons. Paul Splittorff was establishing his role in the rotation, having gone 20-22 over his first couple of campaigns. Busby joined the team in September and notched a 3-1 record, including a complete game victory in his debut. In five starts he posted a 1.58 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 40 innings.

The team was on the verge of contention, and Busby fit right in with the other two young starters. In 1973, the team shot to 88-74 and Busby, at just 23, recorded a 16-15 mark and a 4.23 ERA. Busby’s WAR was 2.9 that season, and he probably wouldn’t have garnered much attention, were it not for a start against the Detroit Tigers on April 27. Busby became one of the youngest players to throw a no-hitter. Busby walked 6, struck out 4 and bested Jim Perry for just the fifth win of his young career.

In 1974, with a year under his belt and a fastball/slider combination clicking, Busby became the Royals’ biggest star. He was named an All-Star and led the team with a 22-14 record. His WAR of 6.1 was by far the team’s highest. But it was on June 19 in Milwaukee that Busby made history by throwing his second no-hitter, allowing just one walk in a 2-0 win over Clyde Wright and the Brewers.

Only 27 pitchers have thrown two no-hitters to this day, and at the time only 22 had thrown two. That day, Busby became the first pitcher to throw no-hitters in each of his first two full seasons.

One red flag during the 1974 season was that Busby threw 20 complete games and 292 innings. While not abnormally high totals for that time, Busby tended to throw a lot of pitches in his outings.

1975 was another All-Star season for Busby. The team rebounded to 91-71 and Busby went 18-12 with a 3.08 ERA, and his WAR was again 6.1, far exceeding anyone else on the pitching staff. He pitched 260 innings and 18 more complete games that season.

Winning 90 games and their first division championship, 1976 was a glorious season for the Royals. But it proved disastrous for Busby. He said he first noticed a lack of strength in his shoulder during the 1975 season, and it grew progressively worse. After just 13 starts in 1976, Busby was diagnosed with a “rotator cuff tear.”

At the time, surgery for such an injury was unheard of. Legendary doctor Frank Jobe advised that Busby attempt to “throw through it” because surgery was a last option. But finally, Busby had no choice but to go under the knife – the first “rotator cuff surgery” – and he was forced to watch as the Royals reached the playoffs for the first time.

By that time, the team had several established stars, led by George Brett and Hal McRae who battled down the stretch for the batting title. Splittorff, Dennis Leonard, Doug Bird and Al Fitzmorris took up the slack in the rotation that season.

The team went on to win 102 games in 1977, with additions of pitchers Jim Colburn, Larry Gura and others. Busby meanwhile rehabbed and threw a three-inning trial in Daytona that season.

In spite of their success, the Royals did not give up on Busby. He attempted to return to the team’s rotation in 1978, making five starts. He also pitched in 14 minor league contests en route to recovery.

1979 looked promising for Busby. He pitched in 22 games, 12 as a starter, and went 6-6 with a 3.63 ERA.

But the shoulder just wasn’t what it used to be, and in the Royals’ World Series run of 1980 Busby could only manage a 1-3 record in 11 games. He pitched well in eight starts in Omaha that season, but sadly the Royals finally gave him his release on August 29, just before the playoffs. He was just short of his 31st birthday.

Busby did attempt one last comeback, signing a contract with St. Louis in January of 1981. But he never pitched in another game. Busby has since worked in broadcasting and worked in baseball instruction. He was enshrined in the inaugural class of the Royals Hall of Fame in the 1986.

Busby dispels the legend that he often threw as many as 200 pitches in a start – he guessed the most pitches he ever threw in a start was about 130, although he did pitch a 12 inning game in 1975. Busby also says that, contrary to legend, he is not the first player to be put on a “pitch count” when he attempted a comeback. He says that was common for players who were recovering from injury.

Busby admits that if he had come along after medical advancements had been made on rotator cuff injuries, he would have stood a much greater chance of returning from the injury. He says that had doctors known then what they know today, he wouldn’t have let the condition go undiagnosed for nearly as long, that he wouldn’t have done such great injury to the shoulder by trying to press through it, and his recovery would have been aided by improved rehabilitation techniques.

While the Royals rose to their greatest heights following Busby’s best seasons, he was the team’s first pitching star. Throwing no-hitters and going to All-Star games before the age of 26, the sky seemed to be the limit for him. Had he stayed healthy, Splittorff, Leonard and others might have looked to him as their ace.

By age 25, Busby had a record of 59-42. Busby’s 6.1 WAR total, which he posted in both 1974 and 1975, has only been bested 9 times in KC history, three times by Bret Saberhagen and by Kevin Appier, and once by Charlie Leibrandt, Mark Gubicza, David Cone, and Zack Greinke.

Had Busby been able to pitch on the great Royals teams of 1976 to 1985, who knows what kind of numbers he could have posted?

But like Prior, Mark Fidrych, Kerry Wood and others, injuries robbed him of his effectiveness at an all-too-early age. Every team has its “what could have been” story, and sadly, Busby is the Royals’.

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Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals

St. Louis Cardinals (68-56, 27-33 away) at Washington Nationals (53-74, 31-30 home)

I wish I could tell you what team is going to show up in D.C. this evening, but I honestly do not know. Since the Cincinnati sweep, things have been up and down for this Jekyll and Hyde team. The Cubs and Brewers handled us, and then we manged to win two of three against the playoff contending Giants. Now we’re coming off a three-game set in Pittsburgh where we crushed the Pirates in game one, then bowed down to them in games two and three.

At the beginning of this road-trip I said that the Cardinals do not deserve to make it to the playoffs if they cannot win at least seven or eight games on this 11 game road swing that includes series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, and Houston Astros. If the Redbirds can’t pull together a 7-4 road-trip against those three teams, then how on earth can we expect our club to do anything in the postseason? So far, we are 1-2. Do you really think this team can beat Atlanta, Philadelphia, or San Diego on the road in the NLDS if we can’t beat three of the worst teams in the MLB? Call me crazy.

While the Cardinals may hold the league’s second best home record, they are below .500 on the road. However, there is good news. St. Louis is 15-9 against Eastern division teams (their best record against any division).

The Cards are 2-0 against the Nats in 2010. Both games were won by good starts by both Kyle Lohse and Chris Carpenter. Carp is scheduled to pitch tonight, while Kyle takes the mound on Saturday.

Game One – Thursday, August 26 – 6:05 CST
Jordan Zimmerman (2010 debut) vs. Chris Carpenter (14-4, 2.88 ERA)

I’m not going to lie, I am a little disappointed that Strasburg is not going to be pitching tonight just because I wanted to watch the kid go up against my team, but I am also very glad he is missing this start. There is no doubt about it, the kid has electric stuff, and I am afraid of what he could do to the Cardinals. Instead of Strasburg, another Nationals prospect by the name of Jordan Zimmerman will take the hill later today. This will be Zimmerman’s first Major League start of the 2010 season, as he has been recovering from Tommy John surgery. In ten starts down in the minors this year, the 24-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 1.59 ERA and only one walk per nine innings pitched.

Chris Carpenter, on the other hand, seems to be extremely healthy. It sure does feel good to say that! In fact, Carp leads the National League in games started. I’ve said in the past, when Carpenter is healthy, there aren’t many better. Ladies and gentlemen, he’s healthy. In 11 starts against the Nats, Carp is 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA 62 strikeouts and only 10 walks in 77 innings pitched. Granted I was never great at math, but that seems to be a 6.20 SO/BB ratio. In any league, at any level, that is pretty darn good.

Game Two – Friday, August 27 – 6:05 CST
Scott Olsen (3-6, 5.21 ERA) vs. Jaime Garcia (11-6, 2.42 ERA)

As a Washington National, in his career, Scott Olsen is 5-10 with a 5.61 ERA in 24 starts. Let’s just say Olsen has ran through his share of rough patches, and this year is no different. He is allowing an average of 10.4 H/9 and over one home run per game. The Cardinals as a team have done great against Olsen in the past (.321 batting average in 121 PA), and Matt Holliday’s 1.782 OPS is awfully scary.

The Cards score another favorable pitching matchup as they send Jaime Garcia to the mound coming of the best start of his career. His 89-pitch complete game shutout was one of the best Cardinal starts of the season, and may end up propelling Jaime to a Rookie of the Year award.

Game Three – Saturday, August 28 – 6:05 CST
Livan Hernandez (8-9, 3.36 ERA) vs. Kyle Lohse (2-5, 6.47 ERA)

Ah, Livan Hernandez. You don’t have a choice but to love the guy. He just won’t go away. Just when everybody thought his career was over, Livan puts together a year that has potential to be his first sub-4 ERA season since 2005 when he led the league in innings pitched. It’s his fifteenth year in MLB, and 14 1/2 of those were spent in the National League, so it’s not like he is a new face to the Cardinals. Hernandez is 5-7 with a 4.58 ERA against the Cardinals in his long career.

I’m not going to sugar-coat this at all for you. I do not feel good about this start for the Redbirds. Not at all. I’ll give you four reasons:

  1. The Nationals as a team are hitting .315 (46-for-146) against Kyle Lohse.
  2. Five of the nine Nationals position players that have taken at bats with Lohse on the mound have batting averages over .316.
  3. On the road, in his career, Kyle is 39-58 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.579 WHIP.
  4. When it’s all boiled down, he is Kyle Lohse. Nobody knows what will happen.

Game Four – Sunday, August 29 – 12:35 CST
John Lannan (5-5, 5.13 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (17-7, 2.06 ERA)

John Lannan has always been one of those guys that I thought needed a new team. I’ve always seen some serious potential in Lannan, and I’ve always thought he would be able to become a front end of the rotation guy in a new system. But all signs of that John Lannan have disappeared in 2010. He has been just awful. There aren’t many pitchers out there that have more walks than strikeouts. Lannan is one of them. There are not many pitchers out there that give up more than 11 hits per nine innings. Lannan makes that list as well. It just hasn’t been a great year for the guy.

You can say just about the opposite about Adam Wainwright. Before his unusually mediocre start on Tuesday, Adam led the league in wins (17), ERA (2.06), ERA+ (194), and WHIP (0.967). In my opinion, there isn’t a starter in Major League Baseball right now that is as dominating as Waino. He has totaled 27 starts this season, and has pitched seven innings in 18 of those starts. He has only allowed more than three runs four times this season. All the hype was centered around Ubaldo Jimenez for a good portion of the first half, but the Cy Young could very well be a Cardinal. To say it simply, they don’t come much better than Adam Wainwright.

Justin Hulsey covers the Cardinals for i70baseball.com and his blog, Cardinals Front Office, that is also dedicated to Cardinal baseball.You may follow him on Twitter @JayHulsey by clicking here.

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