It’s pretty easy to point out all the bad decisions the Royals organization made over the years. But they’ve made some right decisions and one of them was to make Luke Hochevar a reliever.

With all the improvements the Royals made to the starting rotation, moving Hochevar to the bullpen was a no-brainier. In his 127 games as a starter, Hochevar had a 5.45 ERA, giving up 94 home runs and a 2.08 SS/BB ratio. Last year, he lead the American League with 118 earned runs, which isn’t a good stat. His inconsistency as a starter frustrated the Royals fan base and I’m sure if frustrated Hochevar too. Sure, a lot of fans wanted the Royals to release Hochevar earlier this year. Despite his issues, it would be foolish to release Hochevar without giving him a chance in the bullpen.

And so far Hochevar’s move to the bullpen has worked out. In six games over 8.2 innings, he has a 1.04 ERA with only one earned run (a solo home run) and a 3.67 SO/BB ratio. One of the knocks on Hochevar as a starter was his tendency to lose focus, which allowed him to give up big innings. But pitching an inning or two and being on call to pitch every day appears to give Hochevar the focus he needs to get batters out and be an asset to the team.

But paying 4.56MM a year for a middle reliever is a high price to pay. Hochevar will be a free agent after the 2014 season. If Hochevar continues his success as a reliever, perhaps the Royals can offer Hochevar a contract for a few years and a lower per year salary. Now that’s something Hochevar might have a problem with, seeing his agent is Scott Boras. And if Hochevar is successful as a reliever, he might think he can be successful as a starter again. But unless the Royals put him back in the rotation (which I don’t think is a good idea), Luke Hochevar’s future is being a reliever, which is best for the team and for Hochevar.

As a guy who has lacked in home run power over the beginning of his career in Kansas City, Billy Butler, has taken the bull by the horns this season setting a new career high in home runs only 111 games into the 2012 season.  Butler is on pace to become the first Royal to hit 30 home runs in a season since Jermaine Dye did it in 2000. A 12 year drought could be broken by a player who for most of his young career has been criticized for not having enough power for not only his stature but also his position being designated hitter.

The power has changed from double to home runs this season mainly because instead of relying on his upper body to do all the work at the plate Butler has worked hard to get his legs stronger over the last 9 months and using them at the plate has equated into more lift on balls that are now carrying over the fence instead of bouncing off of the warning track.  One stat that has not been given enough credit was his ability to hit the double.  Trailing only New York Yankee second basemen in doubles since the beginning of the 2009 season, Butler has 158 two baggers, according to Baseball-Reference.  That is an astounding number that seems to have been pushed away because they are not turning into home runs. Everyone believes that if you have to power to hit that many doubles then you have the power to hit home runs. It does not work that way because it is not about the power or strength but the swing that the hitter has.  Over the first parts of his career Butler seemed to not lift the ball when it was needed and would use a more level swing that resulted in line drives in the gaps instead of towering fly balls into the stands.  But until the last two season Butler simply was not supposed to be the guy who hit the ball over the wall and gave the team the offensive lift they need. He has been asked to be a hitter and a hitter he has been.  But now he needs to continue to show the power he has shown so far in 2012.

On pace for 34 home runs this season two shy of the club record of 36 set in 1985 by the powerful Steve Balboni. The amount of home runs is not what stands out the most in the case of Butler.  The fact that he recognized that as the hitting leader of this team the best way to do that is lead by example.  In the off season he saw that he needed to work on his weakness of strength in his lower body which would help get more lift on the baseball and turn doubles in the gaps into home runs into the seats.

The philosophy that both Butler and hitting coach Kevin Seitzer have taken in the 2012 sea on seems to be working not only in the power department but a continued success to all fields for Butler. His doubles have gone down but that is what happens when the ball that were hitting the fence are now traveling over the fence.  To ask a guy to hit 30 home runs for the first time in his career and continue a pace of 47 doubles per year for the last three seasons would be outrageous.  The statistic that continues to slipped the minds of critics of Butler is the fact that the man is only 26 years old.  By comparison to other designated hitters of past that people would like to see Bulter become Edgar Martinez did not hit 30 home runs in a season until he was 37 years old.  he did flirt with 30 home runs in 1995 which still was when he was 33 years old.

Comparing the two a bit more in Martinez’s first 6 seasons in the major leagues he hit 91 home runs, 204 doubles, with 381 RBI while having a batting average of .290.  Now Butler in his first six seasons, which as of right now is 13 at bats less than Martinez had at this point in his career, has hit 97 home runs, 203 doubles, with 445 RBI and a batting average of .298, according to Baseball-Reference. If Butler continues to improve on an already good beginning to his career and progresses faster than Martinez did in Seattle than the Royals could have a once in a lifetime statistic wonder on their hands.

Everyone knew that Butler was going to be a hitter but hitters do not alway produce.  Having a guy that is going to consistently flirt with a three hundred average which never seems to dip under .290 nor exceed .315 is something that can be found anywhere but having that same guy perform with the production that Butler has shown in just six years is priceless.  He started out as two eggs over easy with a side of toast and now has turned into a full country breakfast.  But over the season to come all we can do is wait and see if Butler can become the Thanksgiving dinner to lead the Royals to success in September and beyond.

One of the crucial factors in the Royals quest to contend in the coming years is the bat of shortstop Alcides Escobar. The glove is clearly exceptional, so if he can complement it with a just a little hitting prowess, the Royals will be set at one of the premium positions. The question becomes just how much Escobar has to hit. Escobar himself told the Kansas City Star he feels he needs to have over a .280 average to be one of the best shortstops in the AL. “Baseball men” also talked in terms of batting average when telling Star writer Sam Mellinger how much Escobar has to hit, but we stat nerds can get more exact than that.

photo by Minda Haas

To answer the question, you must first quantify what his defense is worth. Defensive metrics are notoriously inexact when compared to offensive ones, but with a large sample size, they can shed a lot of light on just how many runs above or below average a fielder allows. Between 2003—2010, the best shortstop in MLB by Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has prevented an average of 17.0 more runs than the average shortstop (RAA). Over the same time period, the metric Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) shows that the best shortstop prevented an average of 24.4 RAA. Here are the averages of the top five shortstops per year between 2003—2010:

Reasonable minds will differ on where Escobar might be expected to fall on those lists. In 2011, Escobar currently ranks second among shortstops in UZR (at 6.3) and tied for second in DRS (at 10). If he plays in 160 games this year, he is on pace to finish with a 12.3 UZR and a 20.5 DRS. It is impossible to know if those numbers reflect Escobar’s true defensive talent level, but they seem to match what people are seeing with their eyes. Projecting how many runs Escobar can be expected to prevent with his defense is not scientific. My guess is 15 RAA a year. It seems fair in that it puts him in rare company without getting crazy and expecting 20+ RAA year in and year out. If anything, 15 is a little optimistic, considering his career UZR per 160 games is only 3.9, but we will assume Escobar plays at the elite level of 15 RAA per year for this exercise.

Escobar can also be expected to add some value as a decent base runner. Fangraphs valued his base running in 2010 at 2.9 RAA. His career rate per 160 games is 2.5, which seems like a good number to use as his true talent level.

So. Plug in those 15 RAA on defense and 2.5 RAA running the bases into this handy WAR calculator (courtesy Jeff Zimmerman), adjust the league average wOBA down to .325 (it was .327 last season, and is .321 so far this year), assume 600 plate appearances, and you can get some answers about what Escobar’s overall value might be at different levels of offensive production.

First let’s get an idea of how much value the best shortstops provide. Here is the average fWAR the top ten MLB shortstops have posted over the last eight seasons (keeping in mind zero is replacement level and 2.0 is roughly average):

Now the payoff. This chart shows what Escobar has to wOBA, assuming my estimations of his defensive and base running values, to reach various benchmarks:

To answer the question, you have to decide what you want in Escobar. Want an average shortstop? He only needs to wOBA .278…which happens to very close to his career mark to date. I think Royals fans want a little more than an average shortstop, even if that would be an upgrade over most of the shortstops we have put up with over the last few decades. Want a nice 3 win player? Look for a wOBA close to .300. To be a top ten shortstop in the MLB, Escobar might need to wOBA .310.

Here is my answer: Escobar needs to wOBA at least .290. In my mind, that would make him a slightly above average shortstop in terms of overall worth, and I could live with that. I think he is easily capable of posting a .290 wOBA in the coming years. To get an idea of what kind of production is needed for a .290 wOBA, here is Jason Bartlett’s 2011 AVG/OBP/SLG line: .249/.317/.309. His wOBA is .289. It’s not asking for much. Given a few more years, his wOBA ceiling might go as high as .320, which could move him up into stud territory. So far in his young career, he has only hit enough to be a roughly average overall shortstop. If he can wOBA .290+ in the coming years, the Royals will really have a shortstop on their hands.

The Royals and advanced stats tend to mix about as well as oil and water, so if you are a Royals fan, you may want to shield your eyes from the following graphs of some advanced stats from the 2010 season.

Win Probability Added

A lot of advanced stats attempt to remove the effects of teammates and game situations to get a truer sense of how a player performed with regard to the things he had control over. WPA on the other hand is context driven. Every batter and pitcher is credited or debited the amount of win expectancy gained or lost after every plate appearance. It is a fascinating descriptive stat of what took place, but not a great indicator of a player’s actual talent. If you’re a believer in clutch performers, this stat rewards the big plays. (Click here for a better explanation.)

Takeaways: Joakim Soria comes out looking pretty amazing, which I believe is due to the big increase in win expectancy that comes with making the last out of a close win. Also because he is amazing. How about that Alex Gordon? His hitting numbers were not too pretty, but according to WPA he came through at good times. David DeJesus on the other hand had fantastic numbers at the plate, but you wouldn’t know it from his WPA. It is hard to overstate how damaging it was to the Royals offense to give Jason Kendall 490 plate appearances and for Ned Yost to slot him second in the order.

O-Swing%

Straight from FanGraphs: “The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.” Simple enough.

Takeaways: Gregor Blanco!? He only had 203 plate appearances after coming to KC, but in 836 career PAs, Blanco’s O-Swing% is even better at 19.6%. The advanced metrics do like Alex Gordon. His batting average has a lot of fans writing him off, but Alex knows how to draw a walk, making him more valuable at the plate than his average indicates. Oh, Yuni. Why would anyone ever throw him a strike?

AL Central wOBA

Here is how the Royals stacked up against their AL Central competition in my favorite batting metric (minimum 150 PAs):

Takeaways: I have no idea what to think about Wilson Betemit. I kept waiting for his hitting to fall to earth, but he just kept hitting. We will all be watching him closely next year to see if he has any more seasons like that in him. This advanced metric does not treat Alex quite as well.

AL Central xFIP

Expected Fielded Independent Pitching is on the same scale as ERA, but takes into account only those things the pitcher has most control over: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and fly-ball percentage. One way to think about it is what a pitcher’s ERA might be if he had perfectly average “luck” and defense behind him. (If you are not familiar with straight FIP, you might want to start with this primer.) Here is how starters who threw at least 25 innings in the AL Central fared:

Takeaways: Zack Greinke is still filthy. Luke Hochevar’s spot is very encouraging. Bruce Chen will not be having another season like 2010, and the Royals are right to run the other way if he is after a multi-year contract as has been reported.

And the relievers who hurled 25 innings+:

Takeaways: The White Sox have the top three spots. Bless Kyle Farnsworth for pitching well enough with the Royals that Dayton Moore was able to flip him and Rick Ankiel for Blanco and Tim Collins.

I was only a few months old when the I-70 Series happened, but as a baby I was in attendance at a few of the games. Of course I have no memory of the series. I do, however, remember George Brett.

My memories are not from ’85 but from a time when the Royals were still winners. A time when the stadium was always full. A time when having season tickets was something to be proud of. So, instead of a stat-filled recap of Brett’s career, I am going to focus on what I remember of Brett as a player.

For most people under the age of 30, George Brest is best remembered as the raving mad man who rushed onto the field ready to kill someone during the infamous Pine Tar Incident. Everyone remembers that image of George Brett, that image of pure emotion, pure passion for the game, and a pure reaction.

I remember George Brett not as my favorite Royal, but as the guy who went out there and did the same thing every single game. He got the clutch hit, made the hard throw, and just pretty much made the extraordinary look routine every night he took the field. I remember not wondering wether George would get a hit, or holding my breath on the long throw from third, because I always knew he would come through when the team needed it.

I also remember Brett being the guy everyone loved, but at the same time hated. George Brett was the face of the team, the heart of the team and the leader of the team in the fans’ eyes. People knew where he lived, where he ate, who he hung out with. His life and personality were always a topic of conversation. Every company wanted George Brett to have their product in his hands.

George Brett was, and still is, the Kansas City Royals. He is the face of that team, the I-70 Series and all things Kansas City, and that in my mind is the biggest stat from the I-70 Series.

George did exactly what everyone expected him to do in 1985. He tore the cover off the ball in the regular season, blasting 30 home runs; he became the MVP of the 1985 American League Championship Series; and he drove the ball all over the field in the World Series, including a four-hit performance in Game 7. He truly lived up to the legend.

George Brett will forever be remembered for that magical Fall 25 years ago when he led the Royals to a world championship.

The classic “back of the baseball card” offensive measures have always been batting average, home runs and RBIs, but the advanced stats explosion of the last 20+ years has exposed how limited those figures are. The main flaw with batting average is that it completely ignores plate appearances that result in a walk. RBI numbers are influenced heavily by something out of a player’s control: runners on base ahead of him. Home runs are of course great, but reflect only a tiny portion of how a player has fared at the plate.

Massively more telling metrics have been developed and are slowly gaining acceptance. On-base percentage (OBP) is a huge improvement over average since it includes plate appearances that end in a walk (and hit-by-pitch). It remains an incomplete measure, however, since it treats vastly different outcomes the same; as beneficial as walks are to an offense, they are obviously not worth as much as home runs, but OBP does not distinguish between them. Slugging gives different credit for various outcomes, but ignores walks and does not accurately weigh the different types of hits; a double is not worth twice as much as a single, a homer is not worth four times a single, etc. On-base plus slugging (OPS) attempts to make up for the flaws in OBP and slugging by adding them together, which results in a great stat. OPS does give a telling indication of how effective a hitter is. But it retains some of the flaws inherent to OBP and slugging, as well as putting too much weight on slugging relative to OBP.

Enter weighted on-base average, or wOBA. Developed by stats maven Tom Tango, wOBA is a near-perfect offensive stat. Through analysis that is over my head, Tango determined the relative benefit of walks, hit-by-pitches, reaching base on errors, singles, doubles, triples and home runs. He then scaled those relative weights such that the resulting stat is on the same scale as OBP. In Tango’s words, “an average hitter is around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor hitter would be under 0.300.” The exact formula for wOBA is: (0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA. (FanGraphs.com lists wOBA.)

So wOBA is a beautiful thing. But as with any stat, comparing wOBAs from different seasons can be misleading, thanks to the yearly ups and downs in overall offense. In order to get numbers that can be compared across years, a player’s wOBA can be divided by that season’s league average wOBA to get an idea of how much more or less effective he was as a hitter than the rest of his league that year. To get to a wOBA+ stat, that number is multiplied by 100, meaning an exactly average wOBA performance results in a 100 wOBA+, a wOBA that is 10% better than league average results in a 110 wOBA+, and a wOBA 90% of league average results in a 90 wOBA+. The formula looks like this: 100 x (wOBA/lg avg wOBA).

Here’s a look at the 10 best wOBA+ seasons in Royals history (minimum 400 plate appearances):

1. George Brett ∙ 1980 ∙ 146 wOBA+
.479 wOBA/.390 AVG/.454 OBP/.664 SLG/203 OPS+

You don’t need advanced stats to know this was the greatest offensive season in Royals history. There’s no debate that 1980 George Brett was as good as it gets. Readers of this site appreciate the incredible talent of Albert Pujols, but Albert is yet to approach a wOBA of .479. (.462 in 2003 is his career high. Of course, Pujols’s .434 career wOBA dwarfs Brett’s .374.)

2. John Mayberry ∙ 1972 ∙ 136 wOBA+
.391 wOBA/.298 AVG/.394 OBP/.507 SLG/168 OPS+

3. John Mayberry ∙ 1975 ∙ 134 wOBA+
.427 wOBA/.291 AVG/.416 OBP/.547 SLG/168 OPS+

Big John Mayberry has an impressive three of the top six spots on this list. Mayberry terrorized AL pitching between 1972—75.

4. George Brett ∙ 1985 ∙ 133 wOBA+
.433 wOBA/.335 AVG/.436 OBP/.585 SLG/178 OPS+

Probably not a coincidence that George’s two best years are the same two years the Royals have gone to the World Series.

5. Danny Tartabull ∙ 1991 ∙ 132 wOBA+
.430 wOBA/.316 AVG/.397 OBP/.593 SLG/171 OPS+

Tartabull owns three of the top 21 wOBA+ years in Royals history. Wooly bully, wooly-bully…wooly-bully.

6. John Mayberry ∙ 1973 ∙ 126 wOBA+
.396 wOBA/.278 AVG/.417 OBP/.478 SLG/146 OPS+

7. Mike Fiore ∙ 1969 ∙ 126 wOBA+
.385 wOBA/.274 AVG/.420 OBP/.428 SLG/138 OPS+

This is the one surprise on the list for me. Fiore had played just six major-league games before the Royals scooped him up in the 1969 expansion draft. Thanks to the unimpressive batting average, my guess would be this excellent season went largely unnoticed in 1969 (though fans must have taken notice when he hit the first home run in Royals history on April 13). His .420 OBP remains the fifth highest in Royals history. Fiore would never put up even decent numbers again however, and the Royals shipped him to Boston in 1970. He was out of the majors after 1972. (One caveat to the pre-1973 seasons—the league average includes pitchers hitting stats, inflating wOBA+ for position players a bit.)

8. Amos Otis ∙ 1978 ∙ 126 wOBA+
.405 wOBA/.298 AVG/.380 OBP/.525 SLG/150 OPS+

This was the best of 10 incredible seasons A.O. put up between 1970—79.

9. Hal McRae ∙ 1976 ∙ 125 wOBA+
.395 wOBA/.332 AVG/.407 OBP/.461 SLG/153 OPS+

Hal McRae mashed for a bunch of years. He had at least 400 PAs between 1974—1983 and was above average every year. Seven times his wOBA+ was 110 or better, with three seasons of 120 or better.

10. George Brett ∙ 1983 ∙ 125 wOBA+
.407 wOBA/.310 AVG/.385 OBP/.563 SLG/158 OPS+

That guy was pretty good.