Tag Archive | "Starting Lineup"

Rick Ankiel Returns To St. Louis

Rick Ankiel began the 2013 season as a member of the Houston Astros.  After a month of the season, he was given his release and found himself a free agent.

RickAnkiel

Until today.

Ankiel is on his way to St. Louis and is expected to be in the starting lineup tonight when the New York Mets take the field against Ankiel’s former team.

The story of Ankiel and his journey through baseball from starting pitcher to slugging outfielder is well documented.  His time in St. Louis developed a near cult following, thanks in large part to the love Aaron Hooks and Cards Diaspora shows him on a regular basis.

Tonight Ankiel returns to Busch Stadium, once again as a member of the opposition.  He has spent limited time in the visitor’s dugout of Busch Stadium, having played only six games against the team that drafted him.  In those six games, he is hitting .250 with no home runs and a single run batted in.  He does boast a .260 average with 24 home runs and 83 runs batted in over the course of 489 at bats during his career at the current version of Busch Stadium.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at i70baseball.
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Winter Warm Up: The Spring Struggle at Second?

Two of the most discussed attendees at the Cardinals Winter Warm Up have been Daniel Descalso and Matt Carpenter, and their respective places on the team…which happens to potentially be one in the same. While there is no question that with good health, both will break camp in March as members of the Opening Day roster, but in what capacity is up in the air.

Dan Descalso

The second base spot has been the really the only debatable position within in the starting lineup, sparked by the desire to find more at bats for Carpenter , although Descalso is the incumbent starter from a year ago. While general manager John Mozeliak and manager Mike Matheny have both given votes of confidence to Descalso for the starting role, neither has disqualified Carpenter from being in the fold for time at the spot either. Both players have shown up in full awareness of the situation at hand, and the opportunity within their reach.

On one hand, there is Descalso, who has a season of starting at the position and makes the team much stronger defensively than any other option in the organization. Of his 96 games played last summer, 74 were played at second, and all but eight were starts. In that time, he established himself as a plus defender, committing only five errors. In regards to his defensive effort, he has worked steadily at improving his output the last few years. “It was one of my weaker parts of my game coming into pro baseball” he said over the weekend “I’ve worked hard on my defense the last couple of years”.

For Carpenter, that has also been the new found focus of his winter as well. After a rookie season that saw him play over 20 games in the outfield, first and third base, respectively, his homework for the winter was to adjust to yet another role. His focus on being ready to get time at second base, a position he played only five games at a year ago, sparingly. It was a decision made mostly to get his bat in the lineup on a more regular basis, partly due to his .294 average and 46 RBI effort a year ago, but also due to Descalso regressing to a .232 clip in his second full season.

It has been a crash course for Carpenter to get acclimated to the role, which has included as much scenario work as he can possibly due at the position. Working on the different scenario plays around the diamond, such as double plays and ground ball simulations hasn’t truly given him an “off” season. “I’ve been pretty encouraged with how it’s going”, he says. “Regardless of how it goes, it won’t affect me and Daniel’s relationship. He’s been a good friend of mine, and we both know it’s just part of the business.”

CheapSeatsPlease

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Wait ’til next year! (We hope)

If there were any doubts the 2012 season was a lost cause for the Kansas City Royals, their 4-9 record and lackluster play after the All-Star break should erase it. The 12 game losing streak in April, injuries to key players, and the ineffectiveness of the starting rotation doomed the Royals 2012 season. The Royals are likely to suffer their ninth consecutive losing season and finish in fourth or fifth place in the American League Central. This is old news to Royals fans, but it doesn’t make it any easier to accept.

 

There’s still 65 games left in the 2012 season. The Royals have little hope making a playoff run, much less finishing around .500. Despite another lost season, there are some things to look forward to towards the trade deadline and the rest of the season.

The starting lineup is pretty much set and is looking good: Except for second base and right field, the rest of the lineup looks pretty good and they’re locked up for the next few years. The offense is showing more power and despite some defensive miscues in yesterday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels, the Royals defense is a bright spot.

The hopeful emergence of Eric Hosmer: His 2012 season so far is a disappointment, and Hosmer would likely be one of the first to agree. To salvage Hosmer’s season, the Royals moved him to eighth in the batting order. Hitting coach Kevin Seitzer is working on Hosmer’s approach at the plate, which is paying dividends. On June 23, Hosmer had a .213 average. In the last month, his average is up to .233.

The great play of Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez: What a case of what might have been for Cain and Perez. If the Royals had both players, or at least one of them for the season, the Royals might have a better win-loss record. Or maybe not. But it’s encouraging how Cain and Perez are playing after being out for almost half of the season. Now they need to stay healthy and play well the rest of the year and in 2013.

The Jonathan Sanchez/Jeremy Guthrie trade: I’m surprised the Royals were able to get anything for Sanchez. I figured Sanchez would clear waivers, refuse an assignment to AAA Omaha and become a free agent. But the Royals got Guthrie, who didn’t work out in Colorado. Guthrie’s start last Sunday didn’t inspire much confidence, but there’s a good chance he will pitch better than Sanchez.

The possible trades of Jeff Franceour, Yuni Betancourt, Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares: Of the four, Broxton is garnering the most interest. It’s unlikely the Royals will get a top of the rotation starter for any of these players, but they could get some solid prospects or Major League ready players.

A possible trade for a top of the rotation starter before the trade deadline: It could happen, however remote. If it does, the Royals will have to give up top prospects or perhaps one of their young players on the 25-man roster. Would the Royals trade someone like Hosmer for a top of the rotation starter that’s under team control for two to three years? It would be a big risk, given the fragility of pitchers and the superstar potential of Hosmer. But that may be what it takes for the Royals to gain a number one or two starter they desperately need.

The eventual arrival of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi: If or when Franceour is moved, Myers will join the Royals in right field. And it’s a matter of time before Odorizzi is called up and joins the starting rotation. Using the rest of the 2012 season to give them playing time will prepare them for the 2013 season and boost interest among Royals fans.

Of course there’s no guarantee 2013 will be any better than 2012. Key players could be injured, or the players the Royals get via free agency or a trade could flame out like Jonathan Sanchez. These are the Royals, after all. But the team is in better shape than they were a few years ago. There is always hope, because hope is all Royals fans have.

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Injuries Make It Difficult To Judge These Royals

If you had been asleep since March and woke up and looked at the Major League Baseball standings, you would see that the Kansas City Royals are currently sitting in 4th place with a record of 24-34, 1/2 game out of last place in the American League Central, with only the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres having fewer wins in all of Major League Baseball. And if this was all you saw, your reaction would be “same old Royals”. However, it isn’t quite that simple.

In 2011, the Royals as a team stayed remarkably healthy. No everyday position player spent any considerable amount of time on the Disabled List. Danny Duffy got shut down early, but otherwise the starting rotation stayed relatively healthy.

2012 has been an entirely different story. 2 key position players that were penciled into the starting lineup for the entire season, Catcher Salvador Perez and CF Lorenzo Cain, have been out all and most of the season respectively. Starting 2nd baseman Chris Getz has been on the DL for about a month. Closer Joakim Soria was diagnosed with a torn elbow ligament in Spring Training and is out for the season with Tommy John surgery. SP Danny Duffy was diagnosed with the same a month ago and is finished for the year. SP Felipe Paulino, sandwiched around a very impressive month in the rotation, has 2 stints on the DL, the 2nd of which he is currently serving. And even though he wasn’t very good before the injury, SP Jonathan Sanchez is also serving time on the DL.

Even in their worst of nightmares, Dayton Moore and Ned Yost couldn’t have planned for this sort of contingency. 4 out of every 5 nights (Bruce Chen‘s outings being the lone exception), the Royals are bringing a knife to a gun fight with the starting pitchers they are sending out there. Of the 5 pitchers in the Royals current starting rotation (Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Vin Mazzaro, Nate Adcock, and Luis Mendoza), only Chen figures at this point to be a sure thing in next year’s rotation, and none of the 5 would figure to be in the rotation beyond next year unless something goes terribly wrong. So what are we supposed to be watching? This is basically a competition between a bunch of guys who would all figure to be 5th starters at best, to determine who is worth keeping around at AAA for an emergency spot start in 2013.

So Royals fans, it is time to quit paying attention to the standings. Things to pay attention to going forward would include:

-Eric Hosmer‘s ability to continue to break out of his extended early season slump
-Alex Gordon as he continues to recover from his slow start to the year
-Mike Moustakas as he emerges as one of the best offensive and defensive 3rd basemen in the game much earlier than anyone anticipated
-Salvador Perez as he returns from the Disabled List this week
-Alcides Escobar as he continues to establish himself as the premier defensive SS in the game
-The development of SP Jake Odorizzi as he continues to excel at AAA Omaha
-And of course, the inevitable call-up of the later “golden boy” of the organization, Wil Myers.

There are plenty of things to be excited about the rest of this Royals season. Unfortunately, contending for the playoffs is no longer one of them. Perhaps 2013 will be “Our Time”

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Cardinals Report, taking stock of May

Coming into May the Cardinals had a three-game lead in the NL Central at the end of April. At the end of their May grind they’re 27-24, in second place, chasing the Reds, and trying to fend off third-place Pittsburgh.

After falling again in Atlanta, and sending three more players to the disabled list in all likelihood, the Cardinals will be pleased to put the month of May behind them.

But two questions remain. Can they put the losing behind them? Will June be any better?

Skip Schumaker doesn’t enjoy watching the St. Louis Cardinals add to their injury woes, particularly when he’s the newest name on the list.

Schumaker suffered a hamstring injury he fears will send him to the disabled list during the Cardinals’ 10-7 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday night.

The Cardinals kept third baseman David Freese and outfielder Carlos Beltran out of the starting lineup due to injuries, while starting pitcher Jaime Garcia was back in St. Louis for an MRI on his sore right elbow.

Outfielders Jon Jay and Allen Craig, first basemen Lance Berkman and Matt Carpenter, and starting pitcher Chris Carpenter are the most prominent names already are on the DL.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” Schumaker said. “I was hoping I wouldn’t be part of it. We have a very good team on the DL right now.”

Schumaker will return to St. Louis for an MRI on Thursday.

“It’s not good,” said Schumaker, who started in right field. “If I had to guess, it’s probably a DL thing.”

The Cardinals went 13-16 during a troubling May, getting thrown for losses in several areas, including the standings. They struggled through four losing streaks of at least three games and in mounting frustration they endured the madness of four one-run losses.

Fernando Salas, a valuable bullpen component in 2011, couldn’t reverse a terrible decline and was demoted to the minors. Salas became the symbol of a Cardinals’ bullpen that was rocked throughout the month. After another meltdown in Wednesday’s 10-7 loss to the Braves, the bullpen finished May with a 5.44 ERA and a whopping 138 base runners allowed in 82 2/3 innings.

Not to be outdone the starting rotation played their role as well in the May swoon.  Fading mightily after cranking out a strong 2.57 ERA in April. That was unsustainable. The inevitable regression led to a 4.50 starting-pitching ERA in May

Notes:

–CF Skip Schumaker, who was getting more time with OFs Jon Jay and Allen Craig disabled, singled in the fifth inning on Tuesday, extending his hitting streak to seven games, during which he is 9-for-26 (.346).

–C Yadier Molina raised his average to .337 with his third four-hit game of the season. “I feel good at the plate, but I would take my 1-for-5 last night and a win and not take 4-for-4 and a loss,” he said.

BY THE NUMBERS: 3-9 — The Cardinals’ record in one-run games after Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to the Braves.

QUOTE TO NOTE: “I just need to do a better job. I haven’t been very good the last four or five starts.” — RHP Jake Westbrook, who has given up 31 hits and 19 runs (17 earned) in his past 20 innings, covering four starts. None has been a win either for Westbrook or the team.

–3B David Freese (mildly sprained right wrist) did not play May 28-29. He is unlikely to return before June 1.

–OF/1B Allen Craig (left hamstring strain) went on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 17. He might be ready to return as soon as he is eligible.

–CF Jon Jay (sprained right shoulder) went on the 15-day disabled list May 15. He might be able to return during the week of May 28-June 3.

–INF Matt Carpenter (strained right oblique) went on the 15-day disabled list May 23.

–1B Lance Berkman (torn meniscus in right knee) went on the 15-day disabled list May 20. He had arthroscopic surgery May 25, and no ACL damage was found. He might return in mid- to late July.

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Cards/Cubs Rivalry Going to the Dogs and Cats!

The Animal Protective Association of Missouri in St. Louis has found itself in the midst of the Cubs/Cards rivalry with an animal shelter in Chicago!

In an effort to find out which city has the most love for shelter pets, the APA and The Anti-Cruelty Society of Chicago are battling it out head-to-head, or tail-to-tail as may be in this case, to see who can raise the most money for shelter pets.

“Never before have we challenged another shelter to a friendly competition,” says APA Executive Director Steve Kaufman. “But seeing that this is Chicago and our baseball teams are playing each other twice in one month, we thought this would be a great way to help the animals!  But, we need St. Louis Cardinals’ fans to step up to the plate and donate to the APA!”

The Anti-Cruelty Society is a much larger shelter in a much larger city. “We have our work cut out for us,” says Kaufman.  But, he is confident his hometown can come out on top.

Even a small donation will make a difference and can help solidify that St. Louis has the most love for shelter pets!  You can donate online at www.apamo.org or call 314-645-4610 to make a gift.

The shelter with the most amount of money raised at the end of the series in Chicago on April 25 will be declared the winner.  The stakes are high: the losing shelter will be forced to name its next nine unnamed pets after the other teams’ starting lineup!

And if beating Chicago isn’t enough, the person who donates the largest amount to the APA will receive four Owner’s Box tickets to a Cardinals game and the other donors will be entered in a drawing to win a limited edition Michael Hunt lithograph and baseball, both signed by Cardinals great Stan Musial!

The contest ends on Thursday, April 26 at 8am, after the Cardinals finish a three-game series in Chicago.

ABOUT THE APA OF MISSOURI
Founded in 1922, The Animal Protective Association of Missouri is a not-for-profit organization dedicated to bringing people and pets together, advancing humane education and creating programs beneficial to the human/animal bond. Among other programs, it offers pet adoptions, a low-cost veterinary clinic, domestic violence pet assistance and “Pick Your Price” adoption fees for cats.  For more information, visit www.apamo.org or call (314) 645-4610.

ABOUT THE ANTI-CRUELTY SOCIETY
The Anti-Cruelty Society is Chicago’s oldest and largest, private, open-admission, unlimited stay humane society. With a mission of building a community of caring by helping pets and educating people, its comprehensive programs and services help over  50,000 animals and humans every year and include: adoption, charity veterinary clinic, low or no-cost spay/neuter clinic, cruelty investigations and rescue, humane education & community outreach, a free behavior hotline, dog training classes, S.A.F.E. program (short-term accommodations for emergencies), The Bruckner Rehabilitation & Treatment Center, the Virginia Butts Berger Cat Clinic, and the Dog Rehabilitation Center. For more information, visit www.anticruelty.org or call (312) 644-8338

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Will Jake Westbrook Slide

The St. Louis Cardinals got Jake Westbrook at the 2010 trade deadline, and he performed well enough down the stretch to earn a 2-year contract with a mutual option on a third year.  Last season he did not perform like the 2010 stretch Westbrook, though to be fair he did pitch to his career averages.  What do we want to to see from Jake in 2012?  More 2010 Westbrook, and less 2011 Westbrook, of course.  How does he get there?

Westbrook historically allows a lot of base runners.  Last year he allowed at least a runner per inning in his victories, and in his no-decisions and losses it was closer to 2 runners per inning.  If Jake was not on his game it was obvious early; he only threw 43 innings in his 9 losses, and allowed almost as many hits, walks, and HR as he did in the 75 innings he threw during his 12 victories.  Opposing hitters hammered him to the tune of a .368 BABIP in games he lost; in his wins, his BABIP was 100 points lower.

OK, if he pitches to less contact he’ll be more successful in 2012, right?  It’s not that simple.  In his 2011 losses, his K/9 was actually higher than in his wins (5.2 to 4.7), and in his no-decisions it was even higher.  The year before they were virtually identical (5.3 to 5.5), although again his K/9 in no-decisions was higher.  Striking out more hitters so there are fewer balls in play does not seem to be a key to Westbrook’s success.

So what can he change in order to return closer to his 2010 Cardinal form?  Take a look at his Fangraphs page, specifically the pitch type section, for a possible answer.  After the trade to St Louis Westbrook essentially ditched his cutter.  He threw a fastball more frequently, threw his slider marginally more frequently, and threw his change-up marginally less frequently than he had while with Cleveland earlier in the year.  In 2011, he threw his fastball slightly less frequently and his change-up with the same frequency as he had the second half of 2010.  He made two major changes:  he threw fewer sliders than in any year since 2007, and he threw more cutters than in any season ever.*

One has to wonder why the drastic change.  Arm trouble?  Inability to get a feel for the pitch that persisted most of the season?  A lack of feel would make sense, because his slider got hammered (based on Fangraphs linear weights) throughout 2011 and no sane pitcher would consistently throw a pitch they knew could cause whiplash while watching it leave the home plate area.

It would seem the key to Westbrook’s success is his slider.  It has been a crucial pitch for him throughout his career and had served him well up to last season.  As we prepare for pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training 2012, we need to watch Westbrook’s progress with his slider.  If he has a feel for it, look for 2010-type performances this season, with 2011 game play a distant (and hopefully rapidly fading) memory.  If he can’t find it again, maybe we can get Roy Oswalt back on the phone.

*Some of the change in fastball/cutter percentage may be due to refinement in the pitch f/x systems ability to detect the difference, however the change in how often he threw a slider cannot be explained away by a measurement software change.

Mike Metzger is a baseball writer based out of San Diego.  He also blogs about the PadresFollow him on Twitter.

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Baseball Digest Report Card: Royals

The parent site of i70baseball, Baseball Digest, has recently been running their end of the year Report Cards for each franchise. The following is the post written by Todd Fertig for the site about the Kansas City Royals.

The revolving door has spun crazily in Kansas City the last several years, but the turnover may finally have come to a halt. The decade-long “youth movement” may finally have produced some youth worth keeping. The Royals minor league system earned a number one ranking last winter, and though the big league team lost 91 games, one by one top prospects matriculated to KC. By the end of the season the team’s entire starting lineup was 27 years old or younger, and only dreadful pitching kept the youngsters from contending in the AL Central.

Rotation: F
Hopes for the Royals’ pitching staff were especially low entering 2011, so you would think it would be hard for the starters to disappoint. But the Royals’ youthful offense and fielding were unexpectedly strong, making the weakness of the rotation all the more glaring.

Kansas City finished 27th in the league in quality starts, as well as team ERA, and 26th in opponents’ slugging and OPS. Royal starters managed a mere two complete games, and just six shutouts. To comprehend just how directionless was the staff, consider that for an extended period KC utilized a six-man rotation, prolonging the Kyle Davies train wreck. He finished 1-9 with a 6.75 ERA before he was mercifully released.

It’s hard to believe the team’s best starter was nearly left off the roster prior to the season. But after searching high and low for anyone else, the Royals kept Bruce Chen, who wound up the team’s only starter with a winning record. Chen led the team in wins (12) and ERA (3.77).

Danny Duffy gained experience, but that’s about all you can say. Jeff Francis was a stop-gap at best. But Luke Hochevar may have turned a corner – he went 6-3 after the All-Star break, and finished with a 1.283 WHIP. Felipe Paulino was a revelation, posting 8.6 SO/9 and a 1.372 WHIP.

Bullpen: D
Though the bevy of young arms in the pen gained a measure of acclaim, this group was not really all that effective as a whole in 2011. Closer Joakim Soria’s troubles were well documented. Soria blew several saves when the Royals still had hopes of contending, and the psychological effect of those collapses on the rest of the club cannot be overestimated. Soria had never posted an ERA above 2.48. This year it was 4.03.

Setup man Aaron Crow started with the sizzle the Royals hoped for from a first-rounder. But after being named to the 2011 All-Star Game, he let teams hit .313 and score 4.34 earned runs after the break. The cast of Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, Blake Wood, Nate Adcock and Greg Holland was at times serviceable, while at other times atrocious.

BD Report Cards brought to you by Seamheads

Catchers: C-
The Royals foolishly hoped Jason Kendall had something left in the tank. The 37-year-old never made it off the DL. Matt Treanor filled in admirably, but there was never a hope he would hit. Bryan Pena disappointed at the plate as well, and the Royals finally turned to 21-year-old phenom Salvador Perez in September. His lock on the position is now rock-solid.

Infield: B
Seemingly every month, an infield position was handed over to one of the Royals’ coveted prospects. Alcides Escobar assumed the shortstop duties on opening day. In May, first baseman Eric Hosmer made his feverishly-anticipated debut. June saw Mike Moustakas move in at third base. The transition was complete in August when Johnny Giavotella took over at second.

Giavotella and Moustakas had mixed results. Moustakas struggled mightily for much of the season. But he broke loose with 12 doubles, four homers and 19 RBI in his last 36 games. During that span, only one player bested his .379 average.

Hosmer asserted himself as the team leader and will only get better. The 21-year-old made a push for Rookie of the Year with 19 homers and 78 RBI in just 128 games. Escobar, meanwhile, looks to be the long-term answer at short.

Billy Butler is a capable fill-in at first, and is arguably one of the best designated hitters in the league. He hit .291 and found his power stroke in the second half to finish with 19 homers and 44 doubles.

Outfield: A
A very convincing argument could be made that Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur made up THE BEST outfield in all of baseball in 2011. Defensively, they blew the curve with 49 assists. Gordon earned a Gold Glove in left, and Francoeur got snubbed in right in favor of Nick Markakis.

The trio was also a doubles machine. They combined for 136 doubles, each finishing in the top 8 of the league. As a group they also belted 61 homers.

At the plate, Gordon had one of the best seasons by a Royals outfielder in history. He was one of just five players in all of baseball to hit better than .300 with 20+ homers and 45+ doubles.

Top Offensive Player
Gordon’s 5.9 WAR was KC’s highest since 2003. In just his second year in left field, he became one of the best.

Top Pitcher
Chen missed more than a month, or his numbers might have been even more impressive. Even so, he continues to pitch like an adult, as opposed to Davies, Hochevar, Duffy, etc. Few in baseball get more from their physical ability than Chen.

Todd Fertig
I-70 Baseball

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Wizardry: One Author’s Ranking of Greatest Fielders May Surprise

Neifi Perez was actually a good defensive shortstop. Amos Otis wasn’t as good a centerfielder as he was reputed to be. And Frank White wasn’t as good with the glove as some of his1970s second base contemporaries.

Those are just some of the assertions by Michael A. Humphreys in Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed.

(Humphrey’s starting lineup of all-time greatest is at the end of this article)

The development of sabermetrics has changed how we analyze and discuss baseball. But I must be honest that when I try to study overly sophisticated statistical measures, my head sometimes starts to spin and my eyes go out of focus. As a writer, I tend to want to leave the heavy lifting to someone else, focusing more on the story, less on the calculus.

But I was intrigued enough by Humphrey’s individual defensive rankings in his recent book that I gave it a casual perusal, skimming the math to get to the findings.

My personal opinion: there are two sides to the coin of player analysis. You may prefer one over the other, but no matter what you believe, the beauty is in the debate.

Like the classic argument of “Who was better? Williams or DiMaggio? Mantle or Mays?” There is joy to be had in comparing the greatness of individuals.

Some would rely upon the eye-test. A Supreme Court Justice once reportedly said concerning pornography that he couldn’t define it, “but I know it when I see it.” Applying this logic to player analysis, some fans base their judgments upon what they see. Or what others have seen. To them, the eye doesn’t lie.

Problems with this approach are that our opinions are skewed by perception, legend, bias, etc. Evaluation of Negro league players depends almost entirely upon this method. Statistics mean virtually nothing when trying to include a Satchel Paige or a Josh Gibson in the discussion.

And it would seem obvious that some players benefit from perception, while others are penalized. Some guys make great plays look easy, while others seem constantly to be diving and grinding. That perception affects our judgments.

On the other hand, some fans choose to eschew subjective observation, relying instead upon complicated formulas to render empirical judgments.

But as Mark Twain famously said, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Sometimes, it would appear, sabermatricians endanger themselves of missing the forest for their study of the trees.

Mr. Humpreys would fall in the second category. Using his “Defensive Regression Analysis” and accounting for everything from the stadiums to the Dead Ball Era to his “Talent Pool Adjusted Runs” (having to do with integration), Humphreys does more calculating than a NASA engineer.

Ready for his sales pitch?

“Michael A. Humphreys shows how to apply classic statistical methods to estimate runs saved by fielders going back to 1883. Humphreys tests his results against other fielding measures, including published ratings based on proprietary batted ball location data, and explains their respective strengths and limitations… Position by position, Humphreys identifies and profiles the greatest fielders of all time…”

My eyes just went bleary. Are you like I was, ready to skip the math lesson and get on to what we really want to see – where Kansas City Royals rate according to Mr. Humphreys?

What he found was certainly intriguing.

My favorite of Humphrey’s conclusions was that Willie Wilson was the second greatest left fielder of all time.

“Wilson also saved more runs in left field per 1450 innings than any other left fielder in history; the only reason Wilson isn’t the greatest left fielder in history on a career basis is because his team moved him to center… could credit Wilson with another dozen or so runs for holding base runners, which makes sense because Wilson could cut off batted balls that dropped in for hits and get them back into the infield so quickly.”

Also on the plus side for Royals fans, George Brett was twelfth in the Modern Era (1969-1992).

Humphrey’s formulas show Rey Sanchez (KC from 1999-2001) was the best defensive shortstop of the contemporary era, and second greatest ever.

That’s cool. But according to the same standard, Neifi Perez was fourth best in the contemporary era. You’ll have a hard time convincing many KC fans of that.

There were other findings Royals fans will take exception with.

Humphrey states Otis was greatly overrated as a centerfielder.

“The Historical Abstract describes Otis as a ‘magnificent’ fielding center fielder, but (various statistical standards) indicate otherwise. Otis was a solid fielder until about 1976… Otis fell off after age thirty, as seems to happen to many center fielders, and consistently played worse than his backups…”

Freddie Patek also appears to have been overrated, according to the stats. Either Humphrey’s standards are wrong, or else the perception of Patek was, because it was his glove that kept him the lineup while his bat was certainly a detriment.

Most shockingly, White was rated EIGHTH in the Modern Era at second base, judged by one statistical measure. White may be an example where statistical measures just can’t tell the whole story.

Humphrey rates White ninth overall, which isn’t bad. But amazingly, three players who played the same position in the same league at the same time – Lou Whitaker, Willie Randolph, and Bobby Grich – were ranked higher. That means that, according to Humphrey, while White was winning those eight Gold Gloves, he was actually getting outplayed by several other guys in the same league.

I don’t buy it.

There are many other controversial findings in the book.

Humphrey believes Gold Gloves don’t go to the best defenders. He says they tend to be given to good all-around players who had an exceptional season defensively in the early stage of their career. From that point on, they continue to win them repeatedly even when their skills decline.

His greatest case in point: Ken Griffey, Jr. Griffey won 10 straight Gold Gloves, but according to Humphrey’s analysis, Junior “was never clearly better than average when he was winning all those Gold Gloves.”

Other vastly over-rated centerfielders include Torii Hunter (9GGs). Steve Finley (5GGs) and Bernie Williams (4GGs). Humphrey says Joe DiMaggio was over-rated as a center fielder, and was actually not as good at the position as his lesser-known brother Dom.

According to Humphrey, Johnny Bench doesn’t make the top ten at catcher, while contemporaries Gary Carter, Jim Sundberg, Steve Yeager, and Bob Boone do.

Of interest to Cardinal fans:

Humphreys finds Albert Pujols the third greatest defensive first baseman of all time. He says Pujols should be considered the greatest all-around player to ever play the position.

I’ll keep Cardinal fans waiting to see who Humphrey has number one at first base.

By one standard of measurement (Talent Pool Adjusted Runs), Frankie Frisch came out as the greatest second baseman of all time.

Shortstop Marty Marion came out on the short end of some statistical analysis, which Humphrey tried to address.

At third, Scott Rolen ranks sixth best all time, while Terry Pendleton comes in tenth. Ken Boyer ranked third among third baseman in the Transitional Era (1947-1968).

Vince Coleman and Lou Brock are considered liabilities in left field, according to Humphrey’s research, while Lonnie “Skates” Smith was actually on the plus side.

Stan Musial was a very solid left fielder, while his contemporary Ted Williams was one of the worst at the same position.

Brian Jordan was ranked the sixth best right fielder of all time, while Reggie Sanders was rated ninth.

Jim Edmonds was viewed very favorably defensively and deserves Hall of Fame consideration, according to Humphrey.

What may seem like heresy, Humphrey’s system finds Ozzie Smith behind Mark Belanger in the Modern Era, and just ahead of Garry Templeton, the much better hitter he replaced. On Humphrey’s all-time list, Smith ranks third.

If you are like me, you may not agree with some of Humphrey’s conclusions. But let me remind you, these are not his OPINIONS. They are his FINDINGS, based on statistically thorough, yet unbiased, mathematical processes.

Are you ready for Humphrey’s starting lineup of the greatest fielders of all time, based strictly on his statistical research?

C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Keith Hernandez
2B: Joe “Flash” Gordon
SS: Mark Belanger
3B: Brooks Robinson
LF: Rickey Henderson
CF: Andruw Jones
RF: Roberto Clemente

Posted in Cardinals, Reviews, RoyalsComments (0)

Press Release: Omaha Sends Three To All Star Game

The following is a press release from the Omaha Storm Chasers concerning the selection of three of their players to the Pacific Coast League All Star Game.


Three Storm Chasers Named to PCL All-Star Team

OMAHA, Neb. — A trio of Omaha Storm Chasers have been chosen to represent the Pacific Coast League in the 2011 All-Star Game in Salt Lake, the league office announced Wednesday. Second baseman Johnny Giavotella and first baseman/designated hitter Clint Robinson will be in the PCL’s starting lineup, while league ERA leader Luis Mendoza will be in the bullpen for the PCL All-Stars when they take on the International League on Wednesday, July 13.

Giavotella, who will celebrate his 24th birthday July 10, is hitting .323 with five homers and 53 RBI as the Chasers’ primary No. 2 hitter. Through 79 games, he has collected a team-best 105 hits, rapped 22 doubles and has stolen nine bases. He is tops in the league defensively at second base in total chances, putouts, assists and double plays, and ranks third in fielding percentage among second basemen with a .979 mark.

Robinson, last year’s Triple Crown winner in the Texas League, leads the Storm Chasers in hitting (.330), home runs (17), runs batted in (54), runs scored (54) and slugging percentage (.573). He has started 38 games at first base and 38 at designated hitter this season, but will be the starting DH for the Pacific Coast League All-Stars. Both Robinson and Giavotella represented Northwest Arkansas in the Texas League All-Star Game a season ago.

Mendoza, far and away the PCL leader in earned run average, will be in the bullpen for All-Star manager Lorenzo Bundy. The 27-year-old righthander is 5-3 with a 2.75 ERA in 22 appearances for the Storm Chasers this season, including seven starts. He has allowed one run or fewer in eight-consecutive appearances (five starts) dating back to May 26, going 4-0 with a 0.99 ERA in 45.2 innings pitched during that stretch. Mendoza’s 2.75 ERA is a remarkable 0.95 better than the next qualified pitcher in the league leaders, Nashville’s Sam Narron (3.70).

Starting along with Giavotella and Robinson in the PCL lineup will be catcher Anthony Recker (Sacramento), first baseman Bryan LaHair (Iowa), third baseman Brian Barden (Round Rock), shortstop Cody Ransom (Reno) and outfielders Collin Cowgill (Reno), Trayvon Robinson (Albuquerque) and former Nebraska Cornhusker Andrew Brown (Memphis). Las Vegas lefthander Brad Mills is expected to be the starting pitcher for the Pacific Coast League.

The Storm Chasers will also be represented by All-Star hitting coach Tommy Gregg, who will have the privilege of working with two of his top pupils in Salt Lake. The 47-year-old Gregg is in his third season in Omaha, fifth in the Kansas City organization and ninth overall in Minor League Baseball.

The 24th Annual Triple-A All-Star Game, pitting the best players from the 16-team Pacific Coast League against the 14-team International League, will be broadcast nationwide on MLB Network Wednesday, July 13 at 8 p.m. Central Time.

Posted in Minors, RoyalsComments (0)

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