Spring Training may be reaching the halfway point but the biggest battle in Jupiter for the St. Louis Cardinals will come to a close.

The Cardinals entered Spring Training attempting to put together the final spot of their rotation.  The battle has come down to the young right arms of Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly.  Today, one of those young men will take a big step forward towards the 2013 rotation.  The other will have some other questions to answer.

The issue here is the timing of Spring Training and the regimen that pitching coach Derek Lilliquist lays out for the pitchers.

Every starter is building his pitch count to be able to reach the 100 pitch threshold by opening day.  As starters get stretched out, and the rotation takes shape, it becomes harder and harder to get long outings for six starters.  The rotation will begin throwing every five days and stretching out higher and higher pitch counts.

Joe Kelly will start today.  Shelby Miller will be the first arm out of the bullpen.  At the end of the day, one of the young men will start again in five days.  The other, well, that is to be determined.

That may be the true question.  Not the question of who rounds out the Major League rotation but the question of what happens with the other one may be of equal importance.  Does he go to Memphis to start there?  Does he remain in St. Louis and in the bullpen?  What best serves the Cardinals in 2013 and in the future?

One question will be answered today.

The rest will develop soon.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at i70baseball.
You can follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

The St. Louis Cardinals entered spring training with the fifth starter position in the rotation up for grabs.  It appears that the spotlight on that competition will shine bright over the next few days.

Trevor Rosenthal – photo from FoxSportsMidwest

As the spring air was pierced by the sounds of pitchers and catchers warming up and early batting practice taking place, the Cardinals settled in for a competition for the final spot in the rotation.  The guys gearing up for that competition were Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly.

It did not take long for plans to change.  Veteran ace Chris Carpenter broke the news that he would not be able to compete this year and Lance Lynn was all but assured his spot as the number four starter.

Then there were three.

Miller appeared to be the favorite early on based on his performance last year, his off season work, and the perception that the top pitching prospect in the organization was ready to take the next step.  The trio of right handers have seen very little time to this point in the spring and, despite much speculation, the team has not been forthcoming with any news.

Meanwhile, Kelly and Rosenthal had proven that they could handle the pressure of the big leagues down the stretch and repeatedly in the post season last year.  Kelly specifically showed over and over again that he could pitch in the rotation after taking over for Jaime Garcia last season due to injury.

Rumors began swirling on Thursday morning, while the team was dealing with news about shortstop Rafael Furcal, that there had been progress in making a decision in the starter competition.  One report surfaced saying that the Cardinals held a meeting for their starting pitchers, a meeting that Rosenthal did not attend.

Possibly the most telling and interesting part of that case is that minor league starters were in the same meeting.  Signs are pointing to Rosenthal’s fate being decided and he may very well open the season in the bullpen for St. Louis.

Now there are two.

The two pitchers left in the competition will take their cases to the mound on Thursday and Friday with Kelly starting Thursday afternoon and Miller toeing the rubber on Friday.  While it would be surprising if these two starts formed the firm decision in the mind of the Cardinals management, it would seem that the spotlight is shining on the next few games to showcase the talent the Cardinals have available.

The decision could come as soon as this weekend.  It will most likely come sometime around March 15.  Ultimately, the decision is coming soon and it’s down to two young pitchers that have shown they can be successful at the major league level.

Soon, there will be one…

Bill Ivie is the editor here at i70baseball.
You can follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

James Shields was the “big name” in the Shields/Wade Davis trade, but the success or failure of the trade hinges on Davis. Shields is the Kansas City Royals’ ace, but he’s a free agent after the 2014 season. Whether he pitches well or not, it’s likely he’s gone after two years. However, Davis is under team control until 2016. The Royals believe Shields will improve the team now. As for Davis, the Royals believe he will develop into a two or three starter and be a part of the starting rotation the next few seasons.

This spring, the Royals plan to give Davis every chance to make the starting rotation as their 3-4-5 starter. From 2009-2011, Davis started 64 games for the Tampa Bay Rays. But last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen, appearing in 54 games. During Spring Training, the Rays gave Davis a shot as their fifth starter, but he lost out to Jeff Niemann. And when Niemann went down with a broken ankle, the Rays promoted Alex Cobb to the starting rotation, leaving Davis in the bullpen.

So is Davis a better starter, or a better reliever? Let’s see what the stats say:

Davis prefers a starting role, but his stats say he’s a better reliever. He had a much lower ERA, and over nine innings gave up fewer hits and struck out more batters. However, he did walk more batters over nine innings, which isn’t good if you’re a reliever. And with the Rays talented starting rotation last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen.

But how does Davis as a starter compare to the 2012 Royals starting rotation? Here’s the stats of the top five Royals starters:

If you take Davis’ worst year, 2011, he had a better ERA than the Royals rotation, save Jeremy Guthrie and Luis Mendoza. The Royals rotation had more SO/9 than the 2011 Davis and except for Mendoza and Will Smith, the Royals rotation had a better BB/9 ratio than the 2011 Davis. If Davis was in the Royals starting rotation last year, he would likely be the number three starter behind Guthrie and Mendoza.

So what does this mean? Well, Davis is a good middle of the rotation starter, but is a better reliever. If Bruce Chen and Mendoza regress, Luke Hochevar pitches like Luke Hochevar and Davis pitches like he did in 2010, he’ll be in the starting rotation. But if Chen, Mendoza or Hochevar have a great Spring Training, Davis might end up in the bullpen.

But that’s not likely, despite what happens this spring. The Royals will give Davis every opportunity to make the starting rotation, just to show the Shields/Davis trade wasn’t a bust like some Royals fans and pundits think it is. If Shields and Davis are starters, the trade doesn’t look bad. The team got two quality starters to improve their rotation. But if Shields is a starter and Davis is a reliever, then the trade looks like the Royals got an ace for only two years and another bullpen arm in an already strong bullpen. Not bad, but not that good either.

The Kansas City Royals took huge measures this offseason to fix their number one on-field issue, the rotation.  The addition of James Shields gave them a legitimate ace pitcher at the front of their rotation.  The rebuilt rotation looks stronger but leaves the question open: Who’s number two?

Throughout 2012 the opinion around the Royals fanbase was very similar.  Many people felt that the team was full of pitchers that projected as the fourth or fifth best pitcher in a rotation.  There was no clear cut “ace” nor was there anyone that the fans felt confident in taking the mound to stop a losing streak.  The team had major league quality pitching, it just was not elite.

Dayton Moore seemingly set out to fix that during the end of 2012 and into the offseason.  A three year contract was reached with Jeremy Guthrie, who had pitched very well after joining the Royals during the second half of 2012, and trades were made for Shields, Wade Davis, and Ervin Santana.  The fifth spot is up for grabs this spring and eventually Danny Duffy will join these four to round out the starting five.

Shields obviously will head line the starting rotation for the Royals and is the type of pitcher that would headline most rotations across baseball.  Last year was a team full of rotation guys that projected as four and five starters, this year, it appears that the rotation may be full of guys that are top-three style pitchers.

Looking at the four starters that are set into the rotation this season, where will they rank at the end of 2013?

Wade Davis: Number Four

Davis has been a solid Major League pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays.  In four seasons he has proven to be a durable starter and a reliable relief pitcher.  The Royals brought him in as insurance and an upgrade over the pitchers they currently had, but he was never projected to be near the top of the rotation.  Davis will provide some inning-eating starts throughout the summer and be serviceable in his role, but ultimately will remain as a lower-rotation starter that may end up back in the bullpen before long if other pitchers are pitching well when Duffy returns.

Ervin Santana: Number Three

Santana is the pitcher that the Royals most hope can realize his potential.  In eight seasons of starting pitching for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Santana has won 16 or more games three times in his career.  He has also lost 12 or more games three times as well.  An up-and-down career has seen moments of brilliance and frustration for Santana.  The Royals will hope that Dave Eiland can work with Santana on mechanical flaws in his delivery and help him regain his top-of-the-rotation form.  Santana should be able to be the number three starter when the smoke clears, though Kansas City may be hoping he is better than that.

Jeremy Guthrie: Number Two

Looking at past performance of all three starters would rank Guthrie much lower in this conversation.  However, in recent interviews Guthrie has talked very openly about a renewed confidence, a satisfaction with management and coaching and overcoming a mental block that he felt kept him for being a better pitcher in Colorado.  He has spoken to the fact that Kauffman Stadium is a pitcher friendly environment and that he feels that he has one of the best defenses in the league behind him.  The confidence shows in his statistics from last season, with nearly all of his stats showing best in his career type numbers.  He is pitching to contact, keeping the ball in the park, and letting his defense do the work.

By the time the smoke clears on the 2013 season, the Royals will be looking at a rotation that will feature top-tier players at most of the slots.  Jeremy Guthrie has every opportunity to become a great part of that rotation for the next three years.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
Follow him on Twitter here.

The St. Louis Cardinals took the field June 10, 2012 against the Cleveland Indians with seven of their projected starters on the disabled list and Matt Holliday on the bench with a minor injury. Not surprisingly, the team was mired in an 11-19 slump. But the Cardinals might be better prepared to handle a similar rash of injuries in 2013.

Ty Wigginton will add depth to the Cardinals bench.

The 2012 Cardinals fought through much of May and June without the likes of Jon Jay, Skip Schumaker, Lance Berkman and Matt Carpenter. That stretch tested the team’s depth as players such as Shane Robinson, Daniel Descalso and Matt Adams did their best to fill the holes left in the lineup and on the field.

The Cardinals were far from a great team at that point in the season, and their record during that portion of the season is a large reason why they finished nine games behind the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central.

Sure, the Cardinals likely wouldn’t have caught the Reds regardless, but they would’ve been five games out if they went 15-15 in the 30-game stretch in May and June, and they would’ve been in a final-week battle with the Reds had they played above .500 in that stretch.

Looking ahead to 2013, the Cardinals still have a fairly veteran lineup that will probably feature at least four players 30 years old or older. Age and health were concerns for the Cardinals heading into last season, and many of those same concerns will remain this year. Lance Berkman is the only player age 30 or older who is no longer with the team.

That means the Cardinals will need to have players ready to fill in and contribute at a high level when injuries hit.

The only free agent hitter they signed in the offseason was 35-year-old Ty Wigginton, so they didn’t bolster their bench, especially after trading Schumaker to the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the team still has more depth on its roster and in the minor leagues.

If shortstop Rafael Furcal gets hurt, the Cardinals can call on last year’s late-season hero Pete Kozma, who showed last year he can be productive. If Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday get hurt, Allen Craig could move from first base or Matt Carpenter could fill those spots. Plus, minor leaguers such as outfielder Oscar Taveras and second baseman Kolten Wong are nearly ready to play in the big leagues, anyway.

Realistically, the Cardinals would have to have more than five starters hurt at the same time before they would start running out of decent replacement options. But even in that case, Adams is still an option to fill in at first base from time to time, so long as he shows some improvement from his 27-game stint in the big leagues that yielded a .244 batting average with two homeruns and 13 RBIs.

In addition to depth in the field, the Cardinals found last year that they have quite a stockpile of young pitchers who now have postseason experience and can certainly fill any gaps if someone in the rotation or bullpen gets hurt. Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal are all more-than-decent options should Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter get hurt again, or if Jaime Garcia continues to have shoulder problems.

The Cardinals haven’t done much during the offseason to fortify their bench, but they already have enough interchangeable parts on their roster to keep the team competitive should they face another year when the regular lineup struggles to stay healthy.

And with a veteran team, those replacement parts are most likely going to be vital to the team’s success in 2013.

The St. Louis Cardinals have a solid starting rotation that includes two ace-caliber pitchers, a couple of decent No. 3 and No. 4 starters, and a bevy of young flamethrowers. However, they might be in better shape if they re-sign their best starter from last year – Kyle Lohse.

Photo By Erika Lynn

Lohse posted a 16-3 record with a team-leading 2.84 earned-run average and was a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award in 2012. His contract expired at the end of the season, but no team has shown any strong interest in signing the 34-year-old righthander.

Part of the problem for Lohse could be a new system put in place by Major League Baseball in 2011 that gives teams compensation picks if they make qualifying offers to their free agents and those players are signed by another team. Teams have recently been more reluctant to sign a high-priced free agent because they’ll have to give up a draft pick and a portion of their draft money.

Perhaps his asking price is simply too high. Scott Boras represents Lohse, and Boras is known to try any imaginable tactic to drive up the price for teams to sign his clients. This strategy cost Lohse the last time he was a free agent.

Lohse put together a 9-12 record in 2007 with the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies, but he hit the open market that offseason looking for a big, multi-year contract. As Spring Training camps opened in 2008, Lohse was still hunting for a job when the Cardinals signed him to a one-year, $4.25-million deal that was designed to be an opportunity for Lohse to try to maximize his value for the following offseason.

It worked. Lohse went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008, and the Cardinals re-signed him to a four-year, $41-million extension later that season.

The Cardinals might be reluctant to sign Lohse because they want the compensation draft pick, which would be cheaper to sign than a free agent pitcher. But, the franchise could find short- and long-term benefits if they re-sign Lohse.

Lohse could return to the Cardinals with a fairly reasonable deal since no other teams have stepped forward with an offer, and the move could help them beyond next year if Adam Wainwright decides to leave as a free agent. Wainwright is going to command at least a near-record contract if he has a good season, and he is almost certainly going to be more expensive than Lohse.

Theoretically, the Cardinals could sign Lohse to a contract in the neighborhood of four years and as much as $70-80 million. That would still likely be less than half of what Wainwright will make in his next contract. Plus, the Cardinals have several young pitchers who could fill rotation spots if Wainwright decides to leave.

If all that were to happen, the Cardinals could open the 2014 and 2015 seasons with a rotation led by Lohse, followed by Jaime Garcia, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller. That also doesn’t include pitchers such as Trevor Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez.

Granted, that would be a very young rotation, and Garcia’s shoulder problems remain a question at this point. But, there is undoubtedly enough talent in that rotation for the team to be successful, and it would be a heck of a lot cheaper than keeping Wainwright.

Some people might say re-signing Lohse this year is unreasonable, but it could pay off in the long term. The Cardinals would have much more money to spend on a solid middle infielder and veteran players who often play key roles that help win games late in the regular season and playoffs.

Although Lohse’s contract this year could create some sticker shock, it would be minimal compared to the gasping-for-air feeling Cardinals fans could experience if the team tries to sign Wainwright to a long-term contract next year.

I hope you can forgive a bit of rambling in this article, as a I am not even in high school yet.

My humor revolves mostly around things like ASDFmovie, and Gangnam Style.My friends and I play violent games like tennis, where one slaps the others hand and vice-versa until one of the players wimps out. Our sleepovers revolve mainly around games like Dead Island, Left 4 Dead, and MLB 2K12. (The last one is just me and my best friend)

In the past Dayton Moore has made decisions like we might at 2:00 in the morning when we are playing 2K12, and the case of Diet Code Red Mountain Dew (I have type 1 Diabetes, so we drink diet) is nearly drained. As I am currently typing this, it is very late on a Saturday night, and I have earbuds in, a laptop on the top of my lap, and the TV tuned in the MLB Network’s “Countdown, Top 25 Comebacks of All Time” But back to the point, Dayton Moore has made some pretty awful decisions since the blind squirrel that is the Kansas City Royals found an acorn in the return for Zack Greinke, but I will break that trade down in another article.

Ervin Santana is a Kansas City Royal. It even feels good to say. It is not even the best case scenario, but it is progress, and it is better that the previous news rush that Chris Volstad is a Royal. My hope with that pick up is that they hope they can fix him, and if they can’t, such as life. They cut him and pay him nothing. Let’s attempt to avoid that topic though. Santana was absolutely horrific this past season, posting a 5.16 ERA, -1.6 WAR, and a 1.27 WHIP, all while being paid 11.2 million dollars, Santana did though put up 178.0 innings in 2012. Even though there are currently 8 starters on the Royals depth chart, Santana is one of them. Some writers have been complaining that Moore should have gone after Dan Haren. Luke Hochevar was MORE horrific though, posting an ERA, WAR, and WHIP (All previous listed stats other than innings and salary) worse than Santana. I am hoping the Royals non-tender Hoch, but is highly unlikely. Just Rany predicted, Moore acted early.

I hope he acted effectively. He proved he is willing to spend money. Gil Meche was the last time Moore spent legit money on a starter, spending 12 (The option that they picked up on Santana was 13 million, but the Angels also gave Kansas City a million) million on Santana after, well, I am just assuming here, the Angels completely lost hope in him. Every few years he seems to have some kind of collapse, but I bet the Royals will only have him for 1 year. If you have been especially attentive while you have been reading this, then you have probably learned a lot. How strange I am. A great analogy about Dayton Moore’s decision making, and how this is a step in the right direction, and a decent sized one.

Royals General Manager Dayton Moore likes to strike early, and this offseason is no exception. To help bolster the rotation, the Royals acquired right-handed starter Ervin Santana, 29, and $1MM cash from the Los Angeles Angels for minor league reliever Brandon Sisk, 27. The Royals will likely pay Santana $13MM for 2013.

So what are the Royals getting for $13MM? In 2012, Santana had a 5.16 ERA with a 9-13 record over 30 starts and 178.0 innings pitched. He had a 6.7 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 2.18 SO/BB ratio and gave up 2.0 HR/9. His WAR was -1.6. Of the five Angels starters, Santana had the worst ERA, had the least amount of SO/9, gave up the most home runs in the league at 39, and had the worst WAR among Angels starters.

That doesn’t sound good, but Santana’s ERA was lower than Bruce Chen, Will Smith and Luke Hochevar (I think everyone’s ERA is lower than Hochevar’s. Well, except for Jonathan Sanchez). Only Chen and Hochevar pitched more innings than Santana and only Chen won more games than Santana with 11. Santana had a better SO/9 than the 2012 Royals starters, but worse HR/9. Only Hochevar had a worse WAR at 1.7. In other words, the 2012 Santana is an improvement, but not by much.

What’s the upside? If you average out Santana’s 2008-2011 seasons, his ERA was 3.90, he had a 52-37 record with 202.1 average innings pitched. His average SO/9 was 7.4, BB/9 was 2.7, SO/BB was 2.89 and he gave up an average of 1.1 HR/9 with a 2.4 WAR. Compare that to top free agent Zack Greinke‘s 2012 season with a 3.48 ERA, 212.1 innings pitched, 8.5 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.70 SO/BB and giving up 0.8 HR/9 and 1.6 WAR. Greinke’s overall numbers are better, but Santana’s numbers are close. If the Royals get the 2008-2011 Santana, he will be a vast improvement to the Royals rotation.

Between the two, Greinke is a much better pitcher. But if you think the Royals are getting Greinke for $13MM a year, you’re dreaming. Santana is a one year, $13MM deal and unless he goes all Jonathan Sanchez on the Royals, they’re getting a league average middle of the rotation innings eater. The Royals hope Santana can bridge the team to 2014, when pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino are a part of the rotation.

Let’s put it this way: the Royals offseason is better compared to last offseason by getting Ervin Santana and trading Sisk to the Angels, who wasn’t going to be on the Royals 40-man roster anyway. Of course that’s a pretty low bar to clear. But it shows the Royals are serious and Moore says the team isn’t through looking for starting pitching.

After the 2012 season, it’s easy to accept the Royals will always lose and nothing will change. It’s hard to be optimistic and defend a sports team who hasn’t been above .500 since 2003 and not in the playoffs since 1985.

So should I and other Royals fans be more optimistic? I think so. Look, if the Baltimore Orioles can make the playoffs, so can the Royals.

You could call the Orioles the Royals of the A.L. East. In 2011, the Orioles had a 69-93 record. The last time they won 70 games was 2006. The last time they went over .500 was 1997. This year, the Orioles went 93-69, winning the Wild Card play-in game against the Rangers before losing the ALDS against the Yankees.

The Orioles weren’t supposed to be this good. Their Pythagorean win-loss record was 82-80 and many figured the team would finish towards the bottom of the A.L. East.

The Yankees won the A.L. East, but only by two games over the Orioles. The Rays played well, but “only” won 90 games, missing the playoffs. The Jays were Royals-like at 73-89. The Red Sox finished 69-93 and showed Bobby Valentine the door.

So what made the Orioles so good? It had to be their top-shelf starting pitching. Well, not really. The starters had a 4.42 team ERA, ninth in the A.L. and 21st in the the Majors. Their “ace” pitcher, Wei-Yin Chen, had a 4.02 ERA, a 12-11 record, pitched 192.2 innings with a 2.70 SO/BB ratio.

The Royals starters had a 5.01 team ERA, 11th in the A.L. and 26th in the Majors. That’s not too far off from the Orioles. The Royals “ace” was Bruce Chen, with a 5.07 ERA, a 11-14 record, pitching 191.2 innings with 2.98 SO/BB ratio. If Luke Hochevar wasn’t Luke Hochevar and Jeremy Guthrie had a full season with the Royals, The Royals starting rotation could be better than the Orioles rotation.

How about the bullpen? The Orioles had a 3.00 team ERA, third in the A.L. and fifth in the Majors. Just behind them were the Royals with a 3.17 team ERA, fourth in the A.L. and sixth in the Majors. The Royals had 535 strikeouts, the most in the A.L., but the Orioles had a 1.21 WHIP, compared to the Royals 1.34 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen was a factor, but it wasn’t the main reason they made the playoffs.

How about the Orioles lineup? Center fielder Adam Jones led the team with a .287 average, 103 runs and 16 stolen bases. DH Chris Davis led with 33 home runs and 85 RBI. As a team, the Orioles had a .247 average, 677 RBI, 270 doubles, 214 home runs, scoring 712 runs while allowing 705 runs.

Meanwhile, DH Billy Butler led the team with a .313 average, 29 homers and 107 RBI. Alex Gordon led the team with 93 runs and Alcides Escobar stole a team high 35 bases. As a team, the Royals had a .265 average, 643 RBI, 295 doubles, 131 home runs, scoring 676 runs and allowing 746 runs.

The Royals had a better batting average and more doubles, but the Orioles had 83 more home runs and 34 more RBI. And the Royals gave up a lot more runs than they scored. Having a good team batting average and hitting doubles helps, but scoring more runs wins more games. The Orioles did a better job offensively than the Royals, but it wasn’t a big reason the Orioles played so well.

So what was it? The Orioles had something the Royals didn’t have much of: luck. There’s a stat called Pythagorean Luck, which is the difference between the actual win-loss record and the Pythagorean win-loss record. The Orioles were the best in the Majors with an 11 luck score and played way above expectations. The Royals were -2 and played slightly below expectations.

When the Orioles were in a close or extra inning game, they usually won. In one run games, the Orioles had a 29-9 record, the best in the Majors. The Royals were 27-26, which is at least above .500. The Orioles also had the best extra inning record in the Majors at 16-2. The Royals were 8-7, once again above .500. And the Orioles never lost a regular season game when they led after seven innings.

And love him or hate him, manager Buck Showalter did a good job managing the team. He’s obsessively detail oriented and after a while he usually wears out his welcome, but he’s a frontrunner for A.L. Manager of the Year.

Now the Orioles were far from perfect. The lack of an ace showed itself in the playoffs, even with the Yankees being offensively challenged. And a team can’t expect to win a majority of one run and extra inning games every year. And outside of pitcher Dylan Bundy and third baseman Manny Machado, the Orioles farm system is pretty shallow.

But the Orioles prove with timely performances, a average starting rotation and some luck, a team can win and make the playoffs, even in a strong A.L. East. There’s no excuses for the Kansas City Royals now. If the Baltimore Orioles can do it, the Royals can too.

The last two nights at Busch Stadium have been indicative of much about the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2012 season. An injury-shortened roster has overexposed the team’s depth, the bullpen has been hit-and-miss, and the offense has sputtered with runners in scoring position. The result: back-to-back 2-1 losses; a total of two runs scored in 18 innings. And the two most consistent pitchers in the rotation this year—Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook—were the hard-luck starters.

Neither of these pitchers has gone wire-to-wire with stellar numbers this season. But they have basically been themselves or better throughout 2012. And if we were talking about Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter or even Jaime Garcia, it might seem par for the course. But this is Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook we’re talking about. They’re supposed to be a number three and a number four or a number four and a number five, but they’re pitching like a number two and a number three. And with Carpenter out for the season and Garcia missing a good chunk of 2012, that’s just what the Cardinals needed. Unfortunately, the team hasn’t been able to respond with any real run support of late.

Lohse has allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his last 10 starts. His ERA currently sits at 2.61 on the season; barring some disastrous starts in the last month and a half of this year, he will finish the season with an ERA under three for the first time in his career. The last time he failed to go six or more innings in a start it was still May. In the starts since, the Cardinals have lost five of the 14 games Lohse has started…and in those losses the Cards game him seven total runs in support, and he allowed seven total earned runs. He’s been great, but the team behind him has been brutal.
Westbrook is enjoying a great season as well. He has pitched at least six innings in each of his last 10 starts, posting just north of a 3 ERA in that time. For Westbrook, that’s fantastic. In fact, if his season ERA of 3.50 holds, it would be the first time he cracked a 4 ERA for a full season since 2004. Westbrook started 2012 hot; he had a 1.76 ERA through his first six starts of the year. But then he regressed to the mean, as they say, and was much more “Jake Westbrook-like” for the next month and a half. And then something happened: Westbrook caught fire again. Starting with a complete game victory in Detroit on June 20, Westbrook’s ERA dipped back below four and has stayed there. In his 11 starts since—including the gem against the Tigers—the Cards have lost three of his starts, scoring a total of five runs. Westbrook allowed six earned runs in those team losses.

One of the great injustices in baseball is watching a pitcher hurl one of his best games or put together a string of great starts and the team ends up with nothing to show for it because they couldn’t score more than one or two runs. Yes, the team on the other side of the field can have a pitcher just as good or better. And the Cards are battling more injuries, with Yadier Molina on the shelf with a stiff back and Rafael Furcal still being hampered by his own back issues. They’ve been battling tons of injuries this season, and ignoring the impact to the team by masking them as “excuses” is just absurd. So that the offense suffers peaks and valleys really isn’t a surprise at all.

But it’s tough to come to grips with the fact that the Cardinals are practically getting career years from Lohse and Westbrook and continue to be looking up at other teams currently occupying the National League playoff spots. If the Cardinals fail to make it to the postseason, the rotation will be the absolute last place anyone should lay blame.
Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.