Roy Oswalt wants to pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals or the Texas Rangers.  Roy Oswalt wants to start and is not open to moving to the bullpen.  Roy Oswalt also wants a one year deal worth ten million dollars.

The Cardinals and Rangers have full pitching staffs that will see a hurler from each team spend time in the bullpen that have seen time on the mound at the beginning of a game.  There simply is no room for Oswalt in the rotation of either team and little room in the budget for either team, yet both are still engaged in “fluid talks” with the veteran right hander.

The Cardinals are the most logical fit.  While they have three pitchers (Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse, Kyle McClellan) that can fill the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, Oswalt would be a markable upgrade and McClellan or Westbrook could easily pitch out of the bullpen.  The team is attempting to free up some cash by trading one of the aforementioned pitchers but is finding fewer buyers than what they would like.  A pure salary dump seems near impossible and the team is seemingly standing it’s ground with a lower offer than what Oswalt desires.

The Rangers have met with Oswalt, but seem to have less room for him in the rotation.  Many experts seem to feel, at this point, the Cardinals are the most likely landing spot for him, but it still takes an offer and a signature on the contract.

Roy Oswalt has a lot of demands and is summing them all up by saying there are two teams he wants to pitch for.  He is the first player in recent memory that has said “I want to play for this team, for this much, in this position.”  Talk about having your cake and eating it, too.  He may have an air tight list of demands, but it still requires the specific team to meet the demands.  The teams and the pitcher have entered a virtual staring contest over the situation.

I wonder who is going to blink?

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

As evidenced by the 2011 playoffs, the Royals need a true ace to make a run in 2012.

It’s pretty clear what the Kansas City Royals’ biggest need is for 2012.

Pitching.

They have to get better in the Earned Runs department before they are a competitive ball club. The Royals ended 2011 27^th in the Majors with a 4.44 ERA, only ahead of Houston (4.51), Minnesota (4.58)and Baltimore (4.89). That’s bad.

Really bad.

After watching the MLB playoffs so far this year, it’s pretty evident that the Royals need a true ace to make any kind of a playoff run. First, let’s take a look at the ERA’s of the teams that made the playoffs this year:

Philadelphia: 3.02 (1^st)

Tampa Bay: 3.58 (8^th)

Milwaukee: 3.63 (9^th)

New York: 3.73 (11^th)

St. Louis: 3.74 (12^th)

Texas: 3.79 (13^th)

Arizona: 3.80 (14^th)

Detroit: 4.04 (18^th)

These numbers are a little surprising, to say the least. Outside of Philadelphia’s amazing (regular season) rotation, no team in the playoffs this year cracked the top seven in ERA. Of the four remaining teams (Milwaukee, St. Louis, Texas, and Detroit) only one team is in the top 10 (Milwaukee).

The formula for the pitching staffs of these four teams looks a little like this:

1) One Stud Ace (Zack Greinke for Milwaukee, Chris Carpenter for St. Louis, C.J. Wilson for Texas, and Justin Verlander for Detroit)

2) 2-3 above average-to-decent starters

3) Consistent bullpen

This winter is one of the most important offseason for the Royals in the past 5 to 10 years because they are possibly only one or two pieces away from making a run towards the postseason. The lineup is pretty much set for Opening Day 2012, but the rotation really needs a guy who can put up an ERA under 3.00.

There has been a lot of talk about acquiring James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays via trade this offseason. If the Royals could pull it off (which is very possible) it would give the starting rotation a clear number one starter and assure a better ERA throughout next season.

For example, if the starting rotation for the 2011 season had Shields instead of Jeff Francis, their ERA would have been at 4.12 instead of 4.55. That’s not to say that simply plugging Shields into the rotation next year guarantees that type of jump in stats, but it will have some type of similar effect.

Hopefully, the returning starters (Luke Hochevar, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino) and the young arms out of the bullpen continue to improve and build on their successes from 2011. Then, one of these things has to happen:

1) Bruce Chen is re-signed

2) Another decent veteran starter is signed

3) A starter from the farm system (Mike Montgomery?) makes the rotation out of Spring Training

If all of these things occur, the Royals could very well be in the top 15 in ERA in the MLB next year. They were 10^th in the majors in runs scored this year, and it’s hard to see them go anywhere but up from there.

The pieces are falling in place now, so it’s time to bring in an ace. It could be Shields or it could be someone who hasn’t entered any trade rumors yet. Either way, the Royals need to make it happen.

The Royals have all of their young position players in place. You can see the offensive potential in this young line-up. As of this writing several Royals have multi-game hitting streaks. Several players are approaching 20 home runs. That is a low number. Go look how many times in recent seasons a Royals hitter has approached it. I’m not worried about the Royals scoring runs this season, or in the future. In fact they are second in the AL Central in runs scored.

What is a concern is the starting pitching. Not only has the pitching on the Royals lived up to their expectation of getting knocked around. The prized prospects in the minors have lost a lot of their luster this season. I discussed this back in June. Starting pitching is rightfully expensive weather you give up prospects like the Cleveland Indians, or acquire through free agency. I was glad to see Dayton Moore discuss this with Bob Dutton in The Kansas City Star. While David Glass has shown some willingness to open the wallet since the arrival of Moore, I don’t see him laying out $100 Million for CJ Wilson.

Obviously the least expensive way to acquire starting pitching is to develop it through your minor league system. Last years San Francisco Giants won the World Series by doing this. But that got me thinking. That’s just one season. Let’s look at past World Series Champions and see how their pitching staffs were assembled. I’m only going to list the top five starters for World Series Champions starting with the 2000 Yankees. I will separate these starting pitchers into three categories: developed (draft + amateur free agent signings), traded, or free agency. Andy Petite presented an interesting situation. He was drafted by the Yankee’s but signed an extension before free agency. These situations will be treated as drafted because they never hit the open market, thus theoretically being signed below market value. Plus, the Royals have shown a willingness to do this in the past with starting pitchers. Like Zack Greinke. Let’s take a look.

2000 New York Yankees:
1. Andy Petite, developed, salary $7,000,000
2. Roger Clemens, trade (99), salary $6,350,000
3. Orlando Hernandez, developed, salary $1,950,000
4. David Cone, free agent (99), salary $12,000,000
5. Denny Neagle, trade (7/00), salary $4,750,000

Totals: 2 were developed, 2 through trades, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $32,050,000

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks :
1. Curt Schilling, trade (7/00), salary $6,500,000
2. Randy Johnson, free agent (98), salary $13,350,000
3. Brian Anderson, drafted (ED 97), salary $4,125,000
4. Robert Ellis, free agent, salary NA
5. Miguel Bautista, free agent, salary $400,000

Totals: 3 free agents, 1 through trade, 1 developed. Total Salary: $24,375,000*

2002 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
1. Ramon Ortiz, developed, salary $575,000
2. Jarrod Washburn, developed, salary $350,000
3. Kevin Appier, trade, salary $9,500,000
4. Aaron Sele, free agent, salary $7,166,667
5. John Lackey, developed, salary $350,000 (estimated)

Totals: 3 developed, 1 through trade, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $17,941,667

2003 Florida Marlins
1. Carl Pavano, trade (7/02), salary $1,500,000
2. Brad Penny, trade (7/99), salary $1,875,000
3. Mark Redman, trade (1/03), salary $2,150,000
4. Dontrelle Willis, developed, salary, $234,426
5. Josh Beckett, developed, salary, $1,725,000

Totals: 3 through trade, 2 developed. Total Salary: $7,484,426

2004 Boston Red Sox
1. Curt Schilling, trade, salary $12,000,000
2. Pedro Martinez, trade but signed a big money extension, salary $17,500,000
3. Tim Wakefield, free agent, salary $4,350,000
4. Derek Lowe, trade, salary $4,500,000
5. Bronson Arroyo, developed, salary $332,500

Totals: 3 through trade, 1 developed, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $38,682,500

2005 Chicago White Sox
1. Mark Buerhrle, developed, salary $6,000,000
2. Freddy Garcia, trade, salary $8,000,000
3. John Garland, developed, salary $3,400,000
4. Jose Contreras, trade, salary $8,500,000
5. Orlando Hernandez, free agent, salary $3,500,000

Totals: 2 through trade, 2 developed 1 free agent. Total Salary: $29,400,000

2006 St Louis Cardinals
1. Chris Carpenter, free agent, salary $5,000,000
2. Jason Marquis, trade, salary $5,150,000
3. Jeff Suppan, free agent, salary $4,000,000
4. Mark Mulder, trade, salary $7,750,000
5. Anthony Reyes, developed, $392,400
6. Jeff Weaver, trade (7/06), $8,325,000

Totals: 3 through trade, 2 free agents, 1 developed. Total Salary: $30,617,400

2007 Boston Red Sox
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, free agent*, salary $6,333,333 *=His contract was purchased from the Sebu Lions as the highest bidder. For the purpose of this article we’ll call him a free agent signing because he went to the highest bidder.

2. Josh Becket, trade, salary $6,666,667
3. Tim Wakefield, free agent, salary $4,000,000
4. Curt Schilling, trade, salary $13,000,000
5. Julian Tavarez, free agent, salary $3,350,000
6. Jon Lester, developed, salary $384,000

Totals: 3 free agents, 2 through trade, 1 developed. Total Salary: $33,734,000

2008 Philadelphia Phillies
1. Cole Hamels, developed, salary $500,000
2. Jamie Moyer, trade, salary $6,000,000
3. Brent Myers, developed, salary $8,583,333
4. Kyle Kendrick, developed, salary $445,000
5. Adam Eaton, free agent, salary $7,208,333
6. Joe Blanton, trade (7/08), salary $3,700,000

Totals: 3 developed, 2 through trades, 1 free agent. Total Salary: $26,436,666

2009 New York Yankees
1. CC Sabathia, free agent, salary $15,285,714
2. AJ Burnnett, free agent, salary $16,500,000
3. Andy Pettitte, free agent, salary $5,500,000
4. Joba Chamberlain, developed, salary $435,575

Totals: 3 free agents, 1 developed. Total Salary: $37,721,289

2010 San Francisco Giants
1. Matt Cain, developed, salary $4,583,333
2. Tim Lincecum, developed, salary $9,000,000
3. Barry Zito, free agent, salary $18,500,000
4. Jonathan Sanchez, developed, salary $2,100,000
5. Madison Bumgarner, developed, salary $450,000
6.Todd Wellemeyer, free agent, salary $1,000,000

Totals: 4 developed, 2 free agents. Total Salary: $35,633,333

That’s a lot of information, but I hate to say this. It doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t know before looking at the numbers. If you put all of this into a spreadsheet, and take out Barry Zito’s contract, you can see the correlation between developing your own pitching as opposed to trading or buying it. There are 58 pitchers listed on the World Series Champions. 21 came from a teams farm system, 19 came from trades (most of the trades working out for the team who got the pitcher), and 18 free agents. Percentage wise there is no difference. World Series Champion staffs come from 1/3 farm system, 1/3 trades, 1/3 free agent signings.

What can we take from this as Royals fans? First the Red Sox and Yankee staff’s total salaries are equal to the entire Royals salary in 2011. The average salary is $28.5 Million and that does not take into account inflation from 2000 -2010, or inflation going forward. The Royals will have to spend more money to get pitching and retain their hitters.

Second, the 2010 Giants and 2002 Angels were the only team to have a staff with 3 or more system pitchers, and even then they were in the majors at least two years before the were effective. If the Royals were to have a pitcher like that they only have Danny Duffy, Nate Adcock, and maybe Felipe Paulino. Even if Montgomery comes up next year these pitchers are still a few years away.

It’s no secret that the Royals are going to try and develop as much pitching as possible. However, free agent signings and trades will be needed to get the required pieces. From looking at the numbers such a strategy has worked 4 out of the 11 years (02,03, 08, & 10). That’s 36%. Even if the Royals do everything right, and everything breaks right, this strategy only works 1/3 of the time. Landing a big time free agent would help this situation, but this is not the off-season to do it. But if that 36% works against the Royals note that buying your championship pitching staff only works 36% of the time too. Winning a World Series is hard. The Royals one World Series trophy did not come from their best team. Even if an organization does everything it’s supposed to do it still needs a lot of luck. I think it’s about time the Royals received a little luck.