When the Colorado Rockies traded for starting Jeremy Guthrie last February, they expected him to be a reliable innings-eating pitcher with a deceptive fastball, a good slider and change up. The right-handed Guthrie was the Opening Day starter for the Baltimore Orioles the last three seasons and Guthrie was the Opening Day starter for the Rockies. By July 20, Guthrie’s 2012 season was a bust and the Rockies sent him to the Kansas City Royals for the disappointing lefty Jonathan Sanchez.

The 2012 season started out well with an Opening Day win against the Huston Astros. But the Rockies lost 13 of the 19 games Guthrie pitched in and he ended up with a 6.35 ERA, 4.5 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9 over 90.2 innings. In late April and early May, Guthrie also missed 15 games with a right shoulder injury. By June 20, the Rockies sent the struggling Guthrie to the bullpen as their long reliever, going with a four-man rotation. Guthrie rejoined the rotation July 4, but the Rockies lost three of the last four games Guthrie started before being dealt to the Royals.

In his first three starts with the Royals, Guthrie looked like a right-handed version of Sanchez, giving up 14 earned runs over 16.1 innings, 12 strikeouts and five walks, being pegged as the losing pitcher in all three games.

But the last two starts reveal a different Jeremy Guthrie. In a combined 15 innings, Guthrie hasn’t given up a run, earned or unearned and thrown 14 strikeouts and given up just two walks. And the teams he pitched against were the Chicago White Sox and the Oakland A’s, both teams who are in the thick of the playoff hunt.

Since the trade, Guthrie has a 4.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 over 31.3 innings. Meanwhile, Sanchez has a 9.53 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and a 7.4 BB/9 over 11.1 innings. So far, it looks like the Royals got the better end of the deal.

So why the turnaround? A big part of it is Guthrie’s change of scenery. When Guthrie pitched at Coors Field, he had a 7.84 ERA and a 5.1 K/9 over 12 games in 59.2 innings pitched. When he was away from Coors Field, Guthrie had a 3.75 ERA and a 5.3 K/9 over 12 games and 62.1 innings pitched. Guthrie also gave up 15 homers at Coors Field compared to nine homers in other ballparks. And did I mention Guthrie is a flyball pitcher? That’s not a good thing in the rarefied air of Coors Field.

Kauffman Stadium is more of a pitcher’s ballpark and with the Royals good defensive outfield, Guthrie can afford to be a flyball pitcher. Lately, the Royals offense is improving, so that gives Guthrie and the starting rotation better run support.

Another factor is Guthrie’s attitude when joining the Royals. Sanchez always acted like he didn’t want to be with the Royals and his performance showed it. But Guthrie says the Royals were one of the three teams he would like pitch for and so far he’s displaying a good attitude.

But two good starts doesn’t mean Guthrie will continue his good run. And Guthrie isn’t going to turn the Royals 2012 season around by himself. These are the Royals we’re talking about, and starting pitching is still the weak link of the team.

Guthrie will be a free agent at the end of the year. If he has a good rest of the season, he could command more than his current $8.2 million salary. Would the Royals be willing or able to sign him, or will Guthrie go somewhere else for a bigger paycheck? And the Royals may believe they have better and more affordable in-house options and let Guthrie walk.

For a trade that seemed to be a wash about a month ago, Jeremy Guthrie is becoming a pleasant surprise. And with yesterday’s news of former Royal outfielder Melky Cabrera being suspended for 50 games for testing positive for testosterone, the Sanchez/Cabrera trade doesn’t seem too bad, especially with getting Guthrie out of the deal.

Since you follow the St Louis Cardinals, you know they are hosting the San Diego Padres this week.  If you read this site with any regularity you know I blog about the San Diego Padres in my spare time.  So naturally this post will be about last night’s 4-3 win over those Padres, right?

Nope.  Today’s post is about Albert Pujols.  Why?  Because I had the opportunity to watch him hit in person last Sunday.

Petco Park has a well deserved reputation as a pitcher’s park.  Even Pujols has trouble driving the ball there.  Petco is one of only 4 NL ballparks in which Pujols has a career OPS of less than .900, and of the other three only AT&T Park is still in use.  Even so, Pujols has 7 career home runs against the Padres and has homered at least once in every series since 2008.  Yeah, he’s struggled mightily this season, but I knew – KNEW – he was hitting one out this weekend.

He came close on Saturday night, but didn’t homer against these Padres.  Pujols went 2-for-12 in the series, with 3 walks, and two measly singles.  On Sunday, he didn’t hit the ball out of the infield.  Yes you read that correctly.

For the heck of it, I tracked the pitch sequence to him for all his at-bats.

• AB 1 – top 1st, runner on third, 1 out:  Fastball (ball), slider (swinging strike), slider (ball), slider (hit into play) – weak grounder onto the dirt in front of home, 2-3 on the putout.
• AB 2 – top 3rd, 0 on, 2 out:  slider (ball), fastball (ball), slider (ball), fastball (ball) – walk.  The Padres placed their second baseman on the shortstop side of second for Pujols’ at bats with no one on.
• AB 3 – top 5, 0 on, 2 out:  fastball (ball), fastball (ball), slider (swinging strike), fastball (ball), slider (hit into play) -  line out to third.  Padres 3B Chase Headley fell to his left to catch it.
• AB 4 – top 8, leadoff:  fastball (swinging strike), fastball (foul tip), slider (ball), fastball (hit into play) – broken bat ground out to short, 6-3 on putout.
• AB 5 – top 10, runner on second, 1 out:  slider (ball), fastball (called strike), fastball (foul), slider (ball), slider (ball), fastball (ball) – walk
• AB 6 – top 12, leadoff:  fastball (ball) … hey look! a Butterfly! – ground out to third, 5-3 on the putout.  I, uh, kind of lost focus 4 hours in.

What can we glean from this?  A couple of things.  First, the Padres worked Pujols exclusively with fastballs and sliders away; rarely did they come in to him.  Which makes sense, since he is trying to pull everything.  A recent Fangraphs article stated he’s pulled 71% of the balls he’s put into play this season, and Sunday’s effort backs that up as he pulled 3 of the 4 balls he put into play.

Second, of the 9 strikes he saw, he swung at an astonishing 8 of them.  That’s incredible to me.  It didn’t matter if he was ahead, even, or behind in the count, Albert was hacking.  His swing percentage this season is the highest of his career, and I begin to understand why.  It’s also entirely possible the sliders he swung at were borderline strikes, and if so he really is expanding his zone at the plate.  Obviously I have no idea why he would do that, but it really looks like he’s trying too hard to justify his contract.

One other thing leapt out at me and that is his stance.  In years past I remember Pujols getting set in the box and keeping everything quiet, even his hands.  This year he’s got a front foot tap that appears to be a timing mechanism.  It looks a lot like what Scott Rolen does when he hits, but unlike Rolen he doesn’t do it all the time.  I may be wildly off base, but it really seemed to me he would do that if he thought a fastball was coming.  He definitely did it in fastball counts.

Like most of the baseball-watching world I have no doubt Pujols will snap out of it and return to the form he had his first 11 years in the league.  None of us are used to watching him struggle at the plate like he is.  It is not pleasant to watch, and in all seriousness I hope he snaps out of it sooner rather than later.

Mike Metzger is a freelance writer based in San Diego.  He blogs about the Padres in his spare time.

Back in February I discussed St Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse, and how his ability to command his curve ball might define his season.  Lohse just finished April 4-0 for the Cardinals; how is his curve ball working for him?

Through five starts Lohse’s velocity on all his pitches is within .5 MPH of what he was throwing last year, except with his change-up; interestingly that’s up 1 MPH from 2011.  He is also throwing all his pitches with roughly the same frequency as in 2011 with two notable exceptions.  Lohse’s change-up usage is down ~5% from his 2011 numbers, and his slider usage is up over 7%.

Has it made much difference?  That is unclear so far.  Lohse’s walk rate per 9 innings is down slightly as compared to 2011 (1.6 now, 2.0 last season), and his strike out rate is up a commensurate amount (5.7 now from 5.3 a year ago), but that could just be noise in the statistics.

Ok, so let’s look at his isolated pitch values.  The wCH value is currently 2.0, the lowest it has been in April since 2008.  On the other hand, his wSL value of 4.2 is the highest it has been as a Cardinal. Lohse’s slider has been a devastating pitch in 2012.  His fastball hasn’t been half bad, either.  Last season his April wFB value of 8.0 was more than twice as good as it had been in his Cardinal tenure.  This year’s number of 4.2 is half that personal best, but it is also the second-best value he’s had as a Cardinal.  Now Lohse’s fastball is a valuable pitch because it sets up all his off-speed stuff, but it has never been an out pitch for him.  It would be exciting if he’s able to maintain that quality with his fastball throughout this season.

Lohse’s curve ball has not been a good pitch so far this year, just like it has not been that good in April in all his years in St Louis.  So far it would appear the curve ball is not what’s driving Lohse’s success; it’s his slider that’s making him one of the NL’s best pitchers in 2012.

One caveat to all this discussion.  Lohse is 14-2 in April as a Cardinal, by far his best month of the season; and April is the only month in which Lohse is over .500 in his career.  Early season success does not guarantee full season success, as his injury-plagued 2009 would suggest.  Lohse is pitching great so far, helping to lead St Louis to the second-best record in the league after one month of play.

Mike Metzger is a freelance writer based in San Diego.  He also blogs about the Padres.  Follow him on Twitter @metzgermg.

The St. Louis Cardinals got Jake Westbrook at the 2010 trade deadline, and he performed well enough down the stretch to earn a 2-year contract with a mutual option on a third year.  Last season he did not perform like the 2010 stretch Westbrook, though to be fair he did pitch to his career averages.  What do we want to to see from Jake in 2012?  More 2010 Westbrook, and less 2011 Westbrook, of course.  How does he get there?

Westbrook historically allows a lot of base runners.  Last year he allowed at least a runner per inning in his victories, and in his no-decisions and losses it was closer to 2 runners per inning.  If Jake was not on his game it was obvious early; he only threw 43 innings in his 9 losses, and allowed almost as many hits, walks, and HR as he did in the 75 innings he threw during his 12 victories.  Opposing hitters hammered him to the tune of a .368 BABIP in games he lost; in his wins, his BABIP was 100 points lower.

OK, if he pitches to less contact he’ll be more successful in 2012, right?  It’s not that simple.  In his 2011 losses, his K/9 was actually higher than in his wins (5.2 to 4.7), and in his no-decisions it was even higher.  The year before they were virtually identical (5.3 to 5.5), although again his K/9 in no-decisions was higher.  Striking out more hitters so there are fewer balls in play does not seem to be a key to Westbrook’s success.

So what can he change in order to return closer to his 2010 Cardinal form?  Take a look at his Fangraphs page, specifically the pitch type section, for a possible answer.  After the trade to St Louis Westbrook essentially ditched his cutter.  He threw a fastball more frequently, threw his slider marginally more frequently, and threw his change-up marginally less frequently than he had while with Cleveland earlier in the year.  In 2011, he threw his fastball slightly less frequently and his change-up with the same frequency as he had the second half of 2010.  He made two major changes:  he threw fewer sliders than in any year since 2007, and he threw more cutters than in any season ever.*

One has to wonder why the drastic change.  Arm trouble?  Inability to get a feel for the pitch that persisted most of the season?  A lack of feel would make sense, because his slider got hammered (based on Fangraphs linear weights) throughout 2011 and no sane pitcher would consistently throw a pitch they knew could cause whiplash while watching it leave the home plate area.

It would seem the key to Westbrook’s success is his slider.  It has been a crucial pitch for him throughout his career and had served him well up to last season.  As we prepare for pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training 2012, we need to watch Westbrook’s progress with his slider.  If he has a feel for it, look for 2010-type performances this season, with 2011 game play a distant (and hopefully rapidly fading) memory.  If he can’t find it again, maybe we can get Roy Oswalt back on the phone.

*Some of the change in fastball/cutter percentage may be due to refinement in the pitch f/x systems ability to detect the difference, however the change in how often he threw a slider cannot be explained away by a measurement software change.

Mike Metzger is a baseball writer based out of San Diego.  He also blogs about the Padres.  Follow him on Twitter.

St. Louis Cardinals closer Jason Motte has seen a lot of ups and downs in the early stages of his career, but he might now be set to have many more ups than downs in the foreseeable future.

The Cardinals agreed to a one-year, $1.95 million contract Wednesday with the man who closed out the franchise’s 11th World Series title.

Although the deal is only for one year, Motte looks like he could be the ninth-inning man for the Cardinals for many years.

Why? That might sound overly optimistic, but he could have long-term success because of his pitching style.

Understandably, many people guffawed at Motte’s pitching style when he first came to the big leagues after being switched from catcher to pitcher in the minor leagues. He throws hard, but he doesn’t have much of a secondary pitch. His slider is very much still a work in progress, and he doesn’t really have a change-up (the out-pitch for many elite closers).

However, all of those so-called deficiencies could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Motte, and in turn for the Cardinals.

When a pitcher such as Motte doesn’t have a reliable back-up pitch, he has to live and die by his fastball. Motte has a good fastball, but last year he learned how to locate that pitch. When everything else about a pitcher is stripped away, locating the fastball is what makes any pitcher successful.

Pitchers such as Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright can drop their massive curveballs on hitters all day, but they will still get hit around if they can’t locate their fastball.

That’s why Motte could have some staying power in the back of the Cardinals’ bullpen.

At the end of the game, many pitchers (Jason Isringhausen, for example) try to get fancy by throwing cutters and curveballs to fool hitters and rack up strikeouts. That often leads to trouble. Sure, a fastball down the gut has the potential to get smashed, but a hanging off-speed pitch in the ninth-inning means more often than not that one team will be celebrating at home plate while the other slowly walks off the field.

Motte understands that he is not going to fool anybody when he comes into a game. His job is to pump in fastballs and get outs, no matter how they come. Ryan Franklin had success as a closer for the same reason. He didn’t try to be fancy and fool hitters. Rather, he located his pitches and forced hitters to softly hit the ball into the ground.

But, Franklin’s luck eventually ran out, and he was terrible in 2011.

However, the difference between Franklin and Motte is that Motte has a swing-and-miss fastball. Motte can throw close to 10 mph faster than Franklin could. When a 97 mph pitch is thrown right where the catcher wants it, hitters will have a tough time making solid contact.

Unfortunately the hard fastball gets many relievers in trouble. Pitchers such as Kyle Farnsworth could throw the ball through a wall, but he could never locate the pitch.

If Motte continues to use his fastball and concentrates on pitch location, he could quickly become one of the better closers the Cardinals have had, and that is saying something.

The Cardinals have had some Hall of Fame closers, but none of them lasted very long. Motte doesn’t have to be Hall of Fame worthy to be successful for the Cardinals, but if he is reliable in the ninth maybe the Cardinals could spend a few years without having to worry about that position.

As far as his contract is concerned, even if Motte has a fantastic 2012 season and his price jumps, the Cardinals should still have the money to keep him, especially if catcher Yadier Molina follows Albert Pujols to Anaheim.

Maybe in future years Motte will have to yell “Come get some!” to a different catcher when he closes out a World Series, but if Motte gets that chance it means the Cardinals have continued their run of excellence.

In the end, that’s really what Cardinals fans want.

The Cardinals dropped a heartbreaker on Wednesday night, losing to Cincinnati 9-8 in thirteen innings. Games that high scoring and that long have multiple story lines, plot twists, and drama. This one could be summarized in two sentences. The good: St Louis fought back from an early 8-0 hole to tie it in the last of the ninth. The bad: Jake Westbrook got shelled, surrendering a double, a triple, and three home runs in 4 1/3 innings. Let’s focus on Jake.

Westbrook has had a rough first half. His 5.34 ERA is ranked 104th out of 111 ‘qualified’ pitchers per Fangraphs (although his xFIP is 4.06, which is only 88th). Last season he rebounded from a nearly similar xFIP with Cleveland (4.24) to post the best xFIP of his career with St Louis (3.51). Last year nine of his 12 Cardinal starts could be classified as quality ones (6 IP or more, 3 ER or less). This year only 5 of 15 starts could be described that way. What is driving his struggles, and can he rebound?

Looking at his 2010 data with the Cardinals, and comparing it with his 2011 to date, a couple of things jump out. His velocity on his three main pitches – fastball, slider, cutter – are roughly the same as last year. He’s still throwing his fastball about 60% of the time. His usage pattern for his off-speed pitches has changed. He’s throwing the slider about half the time (16.4% last year, 9.8% this), and his cutter 4X as much (14.8%, up from 4.7% a year ago). His pitch selection more closely resembles what he did while an Indian in 2010 (14.9% slider, 12.9% cutter), when he posted a 4.65 ERA and that 4.24 xFIP.

Next, his swinging strike percentage is the lowest of his career. Over all of last season hitters swung and came up empty 7.1% of the time, and it was virtually the same in both leagues (7.2% AL, 6.9% NL). This year – 6.1% of all swings are in vain. Additionally, and perhaps related, hitters are making more contact on his pitches located outside of the strike zone. Last year they made contact on 70% of those pitches; this year it’s 75%. These two statistics support the belief he is not locating as well this year as he did last season. The most obvious symptom of bad location is lots of base runners, and Westbrook has had that in spades. His current WHIP is his worst since 2001. His walk rates are up and his strikeouts are down. Opposing hitters are batting .320 on balls in play, their best mark off Jake since 2006.

Although his location has been off this year, his HR’s allowed have not shown a real spike. Last year with the Cardinals only 9.4% of the fly balls he allowed left the yard. This year it is worse, 13.2%, but with a caveat. This year’s percentage is much more in line with his performance in prior seasons. In 2007 it was 10.2%, 2008 16.7%, and in his half of 2010 with Cleveland it was 12.7%. So although he’s not getting as many swinging strikes, and opposing hitters are making more contact on pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s constantly pitching with guys on base, he’s not surrendering home runs at an abnormally high rate.

Given all that data, we can make one reasonably easy recommendation and one hard one for a better second half. Easy: he should use the All-Star break to re-evaluate how often he throws his slider and cutter, and adjust them to his second-half 2010 levels. Hard: he needs to re-discover his command and locate better both in and out of the strike zone. Better location will drive his base runner numbers down and help him get deeper into ballgames with better results. Otherwise his second half in 2011 will look maddingly like his first.

A lot of buzz around Kansas City last week with the arrival of prospect Eric Hosmer.

Let’s take a look at what we can expect from him and the Royals as we move into week 6.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

The Midwest boys will head east this week squaring off with the Yankees and the Tigers. In the Bronx, they face Garcia, Burnett and Nova. Then in Motown they will see the 100 MPH throwing, two-time no-hitting pitcher, Justin Verlander, Brad Penny, and Max Scherzer.

Injury Front:

Jarrod Dyson made his way back to the field this week and looks like he’ll avoid the DL. Still worth monitoring (with his good speed) but not worth a roster spot just yet.

Robinson Tejeda began a rehab assignment this week. In holds leagues there are many other better options available at this point.

Playing Time:

Kila Ka’aihue was demoted this week with Eric Hosmer’s arrival. Hosmer was the first round pick for the Royals in 2008. At only 21, he was considered to be one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball. He broke out last season slugging 20 home runs between three leagues. His plate discipline has been excellent and he has the ability to hit for power with 78 extra base hits last season. With just over 100 at bats at AAA this season, he was batting .439 and earned the promotion. If Hosmer sticks, which is highly likely given his discipline, he should hit around .270 with 10-15 HR and drive in 60. He’s worthy of a roster spot in mixed leagues. In keeper leagues, he is definitely one you should grab now if somehow he is still available.

Who’s HOT:

Jeff Francoeur continues to be a steady force in the middle of the lineup. If you look at his peripherals, his HR/FB% is 21%, which is clearly unsustainable. However, he is having better success hitting the fastball and that has been the pitch he has been weak on in years past. The slider and off-speed pitches have been the pitches that Fracoeur has had success with. Naturally, pitchers have stayed away from that to throw more heat. Jeff has capitalized on some better plate discipline as well and at only 27 still has prime years in him. He still has a propensity to swing at pitches out of the zone (39%), so it’s not a bad idea to see what the trade market will bring as his value may not ever be higher.

Who’s NOT:

Jeff Francis has hit a rough stretch. He’s given up five or more earned runs his last three outings. If you are hanging on hoping he’ll shape back into what he was the first two weeks of the season, you have to let that notion go.

Swept by the Indians and a sweep of the struggling Twins leave the Royals at 15-13 and 4.5 behind the red hot Indians.

This week, the Royals continue their home stand with Baltimore and Oakland coming to town each for three. Kansas City has a much more favorable offensive schedule, finally. The O’s will throw Bergeson, Arrieta and Timlin and the A’s will send Gonzalez (L), McCarthy, and Ross.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

Injury Front:

Jarrod Dyson had worked his way into some playing time but left Sunday’s game against the Twins with a sprained ankle. It’s uncertain how much time the speedster will miss, but an injured ankle will hamper his greatest strength, running. Dyson will be interesting to watch once he gets healthy as he has 7 stolen bases in 7 attempts.

Playing Time:

Mike Aviles’ playing time and hitting is still streaky. Wilson Betemit is still the guy to own at third as he continues to hit. Look to deal him now as he will not be able to sustain this pace and Mike Moustakas is a month away.

HOT:

Former Mizzou standout Aaron Crow was elected pitcher of the month by the Kansas City media for April. He went 2-0 and did not surrender a run in 13 2/3 innings while striking out 14. He was drafted as a starter and had 29 starts in the minors last year displaying good K rates (7.9) but some trouble with control (3.6 BB/9). He has been lucky with a low BABIP (.219) and a 100% LOB%. Still, his fastball is consistently 95 and his slider is an effective pitch as well. In a holds league he’s worth owning and in a keeper league he’d be worth stashing away as he might work into a starting role or closing role in the near future.

NOT:

Owning a Royals’ starter is not recommended at this time. Francis, Chen, and Hochevar have all shown flashes of being decent matchup starters. However, their inconsistency can play havoc on your team.

Is it fair to say the Kyle Davies experiment is over?

No, probably not – Davies, who seems to be well liked within the organization, could quite likely stay in the Royals’ rotation all season unless he is injured. This, despite a fascinating story over at Royals Authority which pointed out that Davies has the worst career ERA of any starting pitcher who has thrown over 700 innings since 1901.

The article gives lots of other statistics proving Davies’ badness, all leading up to the money quote: “It is quite possible that every time Kyle Davies takes the mound we are witnessing the worst starting pitcher in the history of the game.”

And yet every five days, Kyle Davies is sent back out there. The reason is because Davies occasionally shows flashes of brilliance (one could say the sun even shines on a dog’s rump once in a while, or a broken watch is right twice a day, etc.) and the organization hopes one day it will all click and the flashes of brilliance will become the rule instead of the exception.

But by now, Davies has proved this is not going to happen.

At least, not as a starter.

Here’s a wacky idea: the Kansas City Royals should send Davies down to Omaha and convert him to closer.

To do so, Davies would need to clear waivers, and it’s likely he would (and even if a team claims him, are the Royals really losing much?) Then, as a Storm Chaser, Davies could focus on a new role and put his best pitching talents to use.

Davies has a fastball in the 93-95 mile per hour range, which isn’t bad for a starter or a closer. But the fastball works most effectively when his changeup is working. Davies also throws a curveball and a slider, but he should forget about these pitches and focus on the fastball and the changeup.

Davies did not miss a start last season, which proves the 27-year-old can hold up to the demands of being a starter. Pitching as a closer should not be a challenge stamina-wise. And it seems Davies has the grit to be a closer, too.

The biggest roadblock for Davies is that the Royals have one of the best young closers in the game at the big-league level. The move from starter to closer for Davies would mean the only chance he has to make it back to the major-league roster is as a setup man to Joakim Soria or if Joakim Soria is injured, traded or converted to a starter (which seems less and less likely as his career progresses).

But Davies is likely going to be out of baseball completely in a few years. Being the backup to Joakim Soria wouldn’t be a bad gig.

On the major league level, moving Davies to Omaha would mean an opening in the rotation. The obvious choice would be Aaron Crow, the rookie who has dominated out of the bullpen in 2011. The Royals could dedicate that spot in the rotation to Crow and other prospect-level pitchers, including Everett Teaford, Mike Montgomery and Danny Duffy.

Wouldn’t it be exciting to go to Kauffman Stadium every fifth day and watch the future of the organization take the mound in the first inning?

Matt Kelsey is a Royals writer and associate editor for I-70 Baseball. He can be reached at mattkelsey14@yahoo.com.

The Brendan Ryan Era has officially come to an end in St. Louis.

The Cardinals today have announced that Brendan Ryan has been traded to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for prospect pitcher Maikel Cleto.

According to early speculation in Seattle, Ryan will be given the opportunity to challenge Jack Wilson for the starting shortstop position and will, most likely, see time at second base while rookie Dustin Ackley develops in through the system.

The Mariners have acquired the best defensive shortstop in the game, a high-energy ball player that sometimes can be his own worst enemy, and a fan favorite player that is incredibly endearing. But what did the Cardinals get in return?

Cleto is a pitcher that has confused most people that have evaluated him. He is a high velocity guy that throws consistently in the low to mid 90′s, sometimes reaching 97 MPH. He has struggled to develop a secondary pitch with various scouts opining about his “below average curveball” or his “yet to be developed slider”. Additionally, scouts have been confused by the hit-ability of his fastball. Most reports suggest that his heater is incredibly straight and shows little movement, leaving it hittable, even at High-A ball, where Cleto spent most of 2010. During his tour in High-A ball, Cleto would establish a 4-9 record with a 6.16 earned run average in 23 games (21 starts). He would strikeout 83 while walking 44, surrender more than a hit per inning pitched, and give up just under one home run per nine innings pitched. Cleto is a 21 year old starting pitcher from the Dominican Republic who spent most of 2009 battling Visa issues after being traded from the Mets’ system to the Mariners in the JJ Putz trade two years ago today. The Mariners had placed Cleto on their 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Not regarded as a top prospect, Cleto does show the potential to be impressive, though most experts predict any pending success will come in the bullpen and not in the starting rotation. With development of his slider and a decent off-speed pitch, I would have to wonder if the Cardinals are seeing a potential back of the bullpen type arm.

Brendan Ryan may very well be the type of player that looks to rebound from a forgettable season while enjoying a change of scenery. Ryan last season hit .223 after posting a .292 average and winning the starting shortstop position the year before. He would struggle at the plate, showing little patience and taking his frustrations onto the field, allowing it to affect his otherwise brilliant defense. Given playing time, constructive criticism, and ample structure in his job, Ryan has the opportunity to reinvent himself in the American League and show the Cardinals’ organization that they may have given up a little too soon. With a young, rebuilding, struggling and often frustrating team in Seattle currently, Ryan will not have to perform at astonishing levels to keep his position in the Mariners’ starting lineup.

The story of Brendan Ryan in St. Louis suggests that there is more to the story than the public is being made aware of. If that is true, I commend the organization and the shortstop for being sensitive to the matter and ensuring that a player was not “run out of town”.

All things considered, this trade may have been just what the doctor ordered for the player and both teams involved.