Eric Homser finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Royals fans probably felt he deserved to finish even higher.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

But perhaps they should count themselves lucky their young star didn’t come closer to winning the award.

Hosmer finished a distant third to Tampa Bay’s Jeremy Hellickson and the Angels’ Mark Trumbo. But Hosmer appears destined to win many more awards. And judging by the Royals’ track record with Rookie of the Year award winners, it’s for the best that he didn’t win this one.

In the Royals’ very first season, Lou Piniella took the award. There was certainly nothing wrong with Piniella’s career, except that not enough of it took place in KC. Piniella had five good seasons with the Royals – he hit .286 with 45 homers and 348 RBI’s during that stretch. But sadly Piniella departed just before he, and the Royals, had their best seasons.

The problem isn’t so much that they traded Piniella. It’s what they received in return.

I’m not old enough to remember the trade of Piniella for reliever Lindy McDaniel, but in hindsight it looks nothing short of senseless. Piniella was 30 at the time of the trade. McDaniel was 38.

McDaniel wasn’t awful, just old. He pitched in 78 games in two seasons in KC, amassing a 6-5 record with two saves. But then he was done. Piniella, meanwhile, played 11 seasons in New York, and had at least six really good years. In all, he hit 102 homers, drove in 766 runs, and finished with a .291 average.

The Royals hope Hosmer doesn’t wind up like the only first baseman in team history to win the Rookie of the Year honor.

Bob Hamelin took the award in a remarkable 1994 strike-shortened season. He belted 24 homers, and his other numbers were pretty impressive too. He batted a respectable .282, with a .388 OBP, .599 SLG, and .987 OPS. Had he been allowed to play a full season in 1994, it is estimated that Hamelin would have hit 32 home runs.

But Hamelin was already 26, battled weight problems and had a history of injuries before his rookie year. Whether due to injuries, poor eyesight, or general lack of ability, Hamelin couldn’t sustain that kind of success. He crashed hard the next season, hitting .168 with just 7 homers.

After another disastrous season in 1996, Hamelin was released just before spring training in 1997. Hamelin bounced back with Detroit that season, pulling it together to hit 18 homers and bat .270. But those two good seasons stand in stark contrast to the rest of his career. Hamelin hit more than a third of his career homers in that magical rookie year and never played more than 110 games in a season.

The third Royal to win the rookie award is definitely the best of the group. At just 22, Carlos Beltran exploded on the big league scene as part of a talented young KC lineup that included Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney and Joe Randa.

Beltran’s 22 homers, 108 RBI’s and .293 average only told half the story. Beltran tore up the base paths as a dangerous leadoff man and flashed his five-tools as a standout centerfielder.

Unfortunately, agent Scott Boras thought Beltran’s star would shine brighter in some other galaxy. In the middle of his sixth season, Beltran was dealt in a blockbuster trade that netted the Royals the marginal talents of Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood.

Beltran was one of baseball’s best for a decade. But in 2009, at just 32, injuries reduced Beltran to just a shadow of his former self. Royals fans look back with regret that one of their greatest players played on just one winning team while in KC.

The last Royal to win Rookie of the Year was Angel Berroa in 2003. Berroa was just one of several shortstops to break the team’s heart during the past decade. Berroa won the award with some impressive numbers for a shortstop – 17 homers and a .287 average. But even in his award-winning season, he struck out a lot and had a low OPS.

Things only got worse from that point. By age 26 the wheels had fallen completely off, and the Royals moved on to another in the string of disappointing shortstops.

So the Royals had two Rookies of the Year who maintained a significant level of success, but left Kansas City in the prime of their careers. And they had two others who dropped off dramatically after their freshman seasons.

Such a drop-off is not a rarity for Rookies of the Year, according to Jeff Zimmerman of Royals Review. He wrote back in late September that more than half of the winners of the award regressed in their second season:

• 12 of 20 saw their AVG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year
• 11 of 20 saw their OBP drop. Overall the average dropped 3 points the next year
• 13 of 20 saw their SLG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year

Note that Zimmerman didn’t specify if those statistics represent the last 20 AL award winners, or the last 10 winners in the NL and AL. But the trend would indicate, regardless, that many top rookies actually perform at a level they cannot sustain.

If Hosmer’s stock trends up instead of down, Royal fans won’t mind a bit that he missed out on the Rookie of the Year award.

After all, another 21 year-old once finished 3^rd in the rookie balloting, and things turned out pretty well for him. His name was George Brett.

There is no doubt that Alex Gordon‘s 2011 campaign ranks among the best seasons by Royals outfielders. Being the Royals addict that I am, I wanted to find out exactly where I think it ranks. Here is what I consider the top ten:

10. Danny Tartabull ∙ 1991 ∙ RF

Tartabull is the only right fielder to slip onto the list (Al Cowens ’77 and Jermaine Dye ’00 were in the running). This is the best purely offensive season a Royals outfielder has ever had, but his lack of speed and defensive range cut harshly into Tartabull’s overall value. He also only played 132 games. But when the bat was in his hands, Tartabull was a force in this last of his five years in KC. If you did not give him anything to hit, he would gladly take a walk or 65. If you gave him something to hit, look out: 33 doubles, 31 homers, and a league-leading .593 slugging percentage. His 171 OPS+ is third in Royals history and tops among outfielders.

9. Amos Otis ∙ 1971 ∙ CF

In his second year with the Royals, Otis lead the league with 52 stolen bases, went to the All-Star game, garnered some MVP votes, and took home a gold glove.

8. Willie Wilson ∙ 1982 ∙ LF

Greased Lightning takes up an impressive three of the top eight seasons. Rate-wise, this was his best hitting season, putting up career highs in average, on-base percentage and slugging. His .332 average was tops in the majors.

7. Willie Wilson ∙ 1979 ∙ LF

Wilson was not especially impressive with the bat this year, but had the best defensive year in Royals history by Total Zone runs and set the team steals record (at an 87% success rate) to put together an overall fantastic season.

6. Carlos Beltran ∙ 2001 ∙ CF

After a rookie of the year campaign in ’99 and a disappointing ’00, Beltran bounced back in a big way in ’01 and has not looked back since in what could end up a Hall of Fame career. As good as he was overall in ’99, his hitting was close to average. Beltran put it all together in ’01: average, walks, power, stolen bases and tremendous defense. He was caught stealing ONCE in 32 attempts.

5. Johnny Damon ∙ 2000 ∙ CF/LF

Damon’s last year in KC was also his best, including league-leading totals in stolen bases (46) and runs (136) and a career high OPS+. He came through in the right spots too: his win probability added matched Amos Otis’s 1978 for best total for a Royals outfielder.

4. Alex Gordon ∙ 2011 ∙ LF

The season that inspired this list ends up all the way down at four. It has been a schizophrenic season for the Royals marked by a ton of losing but also excitement about several individual performances. And as good as Cabrera, Francoeur, Hosmer and others have been, Alex has been in another dimension. He really never slumped, steadily dominating in both halves of innings. He has been the best left fielder in the AL and given the Royals their best season by a position player since, well, the next spot on this list…

3. Carlos Beltran ∙ 2003 ∙ CF

The surprising team success in 2003 is largely considered a fluke, but Beltran’s superlative contributions to the team were very real.

2. Amos Otis ∙ 1978 ∙ CF

Game-for-game, I would take this season ever so slightly as the best ever by a Royals outfielder. It was the best by win probability added (4.6). But Otis missed a handful of games, giving the slight advantage to…

1. Willie Wilson ∙ 1980 ∙ LF/CF

This incredible season is overshadowed by George Brett’s 1980, the best year a Royals player ever had. Wilson deserves more recognition for his ’80 season though. It is probably the best by a Royals position player other than Brett’s best years. Willie’s team records set in 1980 for plate appearances (745) and hits (230) still stand, and his stolen bases and runs scored (133) are both second in franchise history. Willie did not walk a lot, but he did not need to when he was putting up as many hits and stealing as many bases as he was in 1980. On top of all those hits, Willie reached base on errors 17 times, a reflection of how terrifying his speed was to the opposition.

Royals catching saw a dramatic turnover following the 2009 season. John Buck had been with the club for six seasons, and Miguel Olivo had seen most of the action in ’09. The Buck/Olivo combo produced a nice power surge at the plate, bashing 32 home runs. Cy Young winner Zack Greinke heaped praise on Olivo’s work behind the plate, but neither catcher had the reputation as being strong defensively, and GM Dayton Moore opted to let both go to free agency without attempting to retain either.

Jason Kendall

Moore wanted a veteran presence behind the plate, and reportedly went after Ivan Rodriguez as his first choice. After Rodriguez signed with Washington, Moore inked 36-year-old Jason Kendall. It was clear to most observers that Kendall was a shell of the All-Star catcher he had been with Pittsburgh, and Moore was questioned for giving Kendall two years with the Royals for six million dollars. Meanwhile, Brayan Pena had shown promise at the plate in limited duty in 2009 (.273/.318/.442), and it was thought he would get some playing time. Instead, Kendall was allowed to catch virtually every game until his arm literally fell apart (muscles completely detached from bone in his shoulder). It didn’t seem to matter that Kendall was ineffective offensively, defensively, and in his handling of the pitching staff.

Trey Hillman had Kendall in the bottom half of the lineup until the beginning of June, when he moved him up to the two spot. Hillman was canned a few weeks later, but new manager Ned Yost never batted Kendall anywhere but second the rest of the way. Yost went so far as to call Kendall an ideal number two hitter. This was apparently due to Kendall’s “bat control,” with the idea he makes a lot of contact that would hopefully move runners over. Royals fans could be forgiven for having a hard time looking past Kendall’s .298 OBP and .266 SLG when hitting second. Kendall’s lack of power was epic: in 490 plate appearances, he hit a total of zero triples and home runs.

Brayan Pena was no better on the rare occasions he saw the field before Kendall’s injury. The fault may not have been entirely Pena’s though — rotting on the bench may have prevented him from finding his rhythm. Once Pena became a regular in September and October, he found his stroke and hit .309/.349/.432. In the 142nd game of the year, Pena got Royals catchers off the schneid with the first—and last—home run hit by a Royals catcher all year.

Brayan Pena was a different hitter before and after getting regular playing time

As for game-calling and defense, surely the gritty veteran was better than Pena, right? Well, the pitching staff had a 5.13 ERA with Kendall behind the plate and a 4.75 ERA when Pena was calling pitches. Base-runners loved to test Kendall’s arm: he led the AL in both stolen bases allowed and caught stealing. Kendall threw out 23% of would-be stealers, and Pena nabbed 28%. (The AL average was 21%.) Matt Klaassen’s involved catcher defense ratings put Kendall’s defense at -.8 runs below average, and Pena’s .4 runs above average.

Brayan Pena & Bruce Chen

When it comes to the intangibles that Kendall reputedly brings, it is next to impossible for a fan to gauge the existence or worth of those. But from where I sat on my couch or at Kauffman Stadium, Pena has one of the most infectious attitudes and smiles in the game, and seemed to get more excited than anybody when the Royals pulled off an exciting play or win. Kendall never had much to say on the bench or to the media as far as I could tell. Who knows, maybe behind closed doors Kendall turned into a guru and imparted valuable wisdom unto the Royals’ young players. Even if that was the case, there just did not seem to be any reason for him to play so much. (Only A.J. Pierzynski and Matt Wieters saw more action behind the plate in the AL than Kendall, even though he missed the last 31 games of the season.) Kendall could have mentored Brayan Pena just as well in a back-up role. The harsh reality is that the Royals were a much improved team after Kendall was out of the lineup.

Pena was joined in KC by Lucas May after Kendall’s move to the IR. May had just joined the organization after coming from the Dodgers in the Scott Podsednik deal at the trading deadline, and didn’t see enough big league action (12 games, 39 plate appearances) to draw any conclusions. Soon after May was acquired, Brad Mertel wrote for RoyalsProspects.com that “May projects as a future backup catcher at the big league level but if his power numbers and defense continue to improve he could force the Royals hand into giving him a starting spot.”

final 2010 numbers

Kendall’s injury is expected to keep him on the shelf for the first six to eight weeks of the 2011 season, leaving Moore with a difficult decision between standing pat with a Pena/May combo or trying to make an off-season move to add a catcher from outside the organization. It doesn’t help that he has tied up $3.75 million in Kendall for next season. It seems Pena may have earned some playing time, but it would not be surprising if Moore adds a veteran backstop before the season starts.