The St. Louis Cardinals have dropped the first two games of a four game set with the Philadelphia Phillies, and both were heartbreakers which the Cards could (should?) have won. In both games, the Phils jumped all over the Cards’ starter for first inning leads. Both nights, the Cardinals battled back to tie or lead the game, but were not able to finish the job. Some notes and thoughts:

–The Phillies clearly are not the same team without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Normally, this would be a perfect time to face the Phils and exploit that vulnerability. But the Cardinals are so depleted by injury, they may be in even worse shape. Watching great teams locked in see-saw battles is exciting; watching teams full of replacements stumble through games and lead changes until one stumbles worse than the other is frustrating. It’s almost hard to imagine that these two teams clashed in an epic playoff series less than eight months ago.

–What was Yadier Molina thinking on the base paths Friday night? In the 4th, he tried to go first to third on a “can of corn” pop-up that Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino muffed in shallow right-center. Molina read the play right as the outfielders searched for the ball in the twilight sky; he was practically standing on second base by the time the ball dropped. But when he saw the Philly fielders fall over each other, he tried to leg out an extra base. And Molina is not a base runner that is going to fare well against someone like Pence—who has a cannon arm—in the outfield. Molina was gunned down at third…for the first out of the inning. Later, in the 8th inning with the game tied 3-3, Molina tried to score from first base (yep…you read that correctly) on a Matt Adams gapper. Molina is not alone in owning this one because Jose Oquendo was waving him home. But a collision with catcher Carlos Ruiz was not enough to knock the ball loose, and Molina was the third out of the inning. For those of you who haven’t completely forgotten everything from Little League, making the first or last outs of an inning at third base or home is generally frowned upon. He is still the best catcher in the league, and his offense this year has been a revelation. But a piece of advice for Yadier Molina, the base runner: know thyself.

–Speaking of that collision at home, it did seem a bit on the ballsy side for a catcher to plow into his counterpart like that. Collisions at home are a part of the game, and nothing about the play seemed dirty. But it will be interesting to see if Molina is the target of any repercussions throughout the rest of this series. I could be wrong, but Jonathan Papelbon’s first two offerings to Molina in the 10th seemed awfully high and tight.

–The recent antics by the Cardinals’ relief corps can be summed up by using a lot of one- or two-word descriptors, but I’ll keep it civil with a simple “Yikes.” Late addition to this note: the Cardinals have called up reliever Chuckie Fick from Triple A and optioned Fernando Salas back to Memphis. Time will tell if this ends up being an effective fix or a band-aid on a bullet wound.

–Whoever came up with the idea for Fredbird to dash across the field sans jersey in between innings Friday night after the streaking incident Thursday should be applauded. Good stuff. And if it somehow deters future hijinks on the field, please find a way to do something similar in the stands to stop The Wave.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained

Now that the euphoria has subsided a little bit, it is time to take a look at the next team standing in St Louis’ way, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia finished the regular season with the best record in baseball. Their vaunted starting rotation performed as advertised, more than making up for their average offense. They are the odds-on favorite not only to win the National League, but the World Series. Let us take a closer look.

St Louis will face Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 220 K), Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 194 K), and Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, 238K) in the LDS. The best part of this rotation is the Cardinals faced Halladay and Hamels, and beat both, barely 2 weeks ago in Philly. The other starter, Lee , has faced St Louis twice this season. The Cardinals beat him in May, with Lee returning the favor in June. So their top three, who were a combined 50-25 this season, have all suffered a loss at the hands of these Cardinals this season. They’re good, but the Cardinals know they can defeat these three.

St Louis will counter with Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter, and Jamie Garcia for Game 4. Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 111K) beat Halladay on 19 September. That victory was his first over Philadelphia since 2008 and snapped a 3-game personal losing streak against the Phillies. Lohse has been the best Cardinal starter during their September surge. Jackson (5-2, 3.58 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 51K) gets a much deserved playoff start. He has allowed 3 or fewer runs in all but two of his starts since joining the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 191K) pitched St Louis to the playoffs with a dominating start against Houston, but the price is his unavailability until Game 3. In 19 starts since June 23 he is 10-2 with a 2.73 ERA.

The Cardinals are not grossly outclassed, but the statistically the Philly starters are better. Starting pitching advantage: Philadephia.

Statistically Philadelphia’s bullpen was better than St Louis’, but with a difference of less than 1 fWAR it is a minor difference. Philadelphia’s best 2 relievers are Ryan Madson (currently the closer) and Antonio Bastardo. Bastardo was pretty close to lights out for the first 2/3 of the season, but has faded noticeably down the stretch. Their bullpen will be bolstered with the presence of starters Roy Oswalt (although he could start Game 4) and Vance Worley. Michael Stutes has also seen significant work out of the Phillies bullpen.

St Louis remade their bullpen in the Colby Rasmus trade, and have turned a liability into a strength. Jason Motte comes in for high leverage situations late in games but is not the ‘closer’ per se. Kyle McClellan, Octavio Dotel, Mark ‘Scrabble’ Rzepczynski, and Arthur Rhodes will all see action out of the bullpen. This bullpen blew 2 of the last 7 games this season, but without them the Cardinals don’t close on a 23-8 tear.

Cardinal bullpen improvement since the trade deadline makes this a dead heat. Bullpen advantage: Even.

Offensively, Philadelphia boasts a formidable lineup of aging stars. Only trade deadline acquisition Hunter Pence is under 30. Still, one takes Philadelphia lightly at their own peril. They were the sixth best offense in the NL (12th overall) this season, again by fWAR. Shane Victorino had a career year hitting mostly out of the leadoff or #2 slot. St Louis’ ability to keep him in check will be a key to winning this series. Pence, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmie Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz all posted wRC+ of 106 or better. They are capable of scoring a lot of runs, but they don’t need to with the starting pitching they have.

The Cardinals field the most potent offense in the National League, anchored by Albert Pujols and the resurgent Lance Berkman. However this offense will not be the one Philadelphia saw two weeks ago. Matt Holliday is hurting, his status uncertain; he was to receive a cortisone shot for his ailing right hand. Rafael Furcal, a catalyst who hit 7 home runs after coming to St Louis, is probably out for the year with a hamstring injury. That’s the bad news. The good news is Allen Craig has stepped into Holliday’s shoes and capably replaced him, hitting .303/.329/.606 since August 25. St Louis will probably platoon at short, with Nick Punto, Ryan Theriot, and Tyler Greene seeing some time. Furcal’s defense was shaky down the stretch, so there won’t be a large drop off there, but there will be a big offensive drop.

Even without Holliday this lineup has not lost a beat. Offensive Advantage: St Louis.

Defense is the Phillie Achilles heel. Using Bill James’ Team Runs Saved as the metric, Philadelphia had the third-worst defense in the NL this season, grading below average at pitcher, catcher, first, left, and right, and exactly average at short. St Louis’ defense was below league average, but graded out 3 spots higher than Philadelphia. Their weakest positions are (worst to best) short, catcher, third, and second. The Cardinals were exactly average at first.

So basically the Phillies have the better infield, and the Cardinals have a better outfield. Defensive Advantage: Even.

Summary and Prediction

Does good pitching stop good hitting or good hitting stop good pitching? This series will be a case study. Good hitting stopped good pitching back in mid-September, but that series did not have the pressure this one will. Sure, the pressure was there for the Cardinals, but not for Philadelphia; they came in with a magic number of 1 and clinched with their lone win. Philadelphia will play at a higher level starting Saturday then they did back then.

That’s not to say the Cardinals should not bother to show up. There is no more confident team in the NL than St Louis as this post-season starts. They were all but eliminated from the post-season 5 weeks ago, yet here they are. The team is playing with house money and they know it. All the pressure in this series resides in the dugout and clubhouse of the team anointed as World Champions before spring training started. If any team can upset the Phillies, it is the Cardinals.

So long as Halladay does not no-hit them tomorrow. Cardinals in 4.

Mike Metzger is a life-long Cardinals fan currently based in San Diego. He blogs about the San Diego Padres, and you can follow him @metzgermg

It certainly doesn’t appear as if they’re building for the future. The two men who’ve been the co-faces of the franchise for more than a decade, Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa, both have contracts that expire at the end of the season, and it looks to be no better than a 50-50 chance that either will be back with the club in 2012. The organization’s three newest pieces, Lance Berkman, Ryan Theriot, and Gerald Laird, have all been signed to one-year contracts. The team has given up on one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, trading a relatively young Brendan Ryan (28 years old) to Seattle. They also regularly float rumors about trading up-and-coming outfielder Colby Rasmus, who’s been in Tony La Russa’s doghouse for the better part of his time in St. Louis. Chris Carpenter is getting up there in age (35), Yadier Molina will be due a pay-raise soon, and with recent revolving doors at second and third base, the only members of the Cardinals who look to be locked in for the long-run are Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday. All signs point towards a “win now” mentality, and the potential for a complete roster and coaching overhaul could be forthcoming in 2012 and beyond.

Of course, there’s a little problem with “winning now”: The Philadelphia Phillies.

With the recent addition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies now have an absurdly talented starting rotation. Lee, the 2008 Cy Young Award winner, joins forces with two-time and reigning Cy Young Award Winner Roy Halladay, former Astro’s ace Roy Oswalt, and the Phillies’ other ace (who’s now probably the team’s fourth best option), Cole Hamels. Words cannot adequately describe the team’s potential, which is still anchored by a solid lineup of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino, but I can tell you this much:

1) The Phillies are getting 5 to 1 odds to win the World Series (tops in the National League), and 2) I would not want to be in a fantasy baseball league with Phillies General Manager, Ruben Amaro.

Of course, anything can happen in baseball. It’s not as if the Cardinals can’t compete with the Phillies. You might recall the Cardinals have four pretty good starters as well: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia. Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman make for a daunting 3-4-5 in the heart of the lineup.

But is it enough?

The Phillies were this close to returning to the World Series for a 3^rd straight year in 2010 and decided to go out and pay Cliff Lee $124 million. The organization also locked in Ryan Howard for 5 years, $125 million over the summer. The Cardinals, on the other hand, haven’t even extended Albert Pujols’ contract.

So that brings us back to the original question: “What is the 2011 Cardinals team playing for?” The Cardinals have several key contracts up at the end of the year. With that in mind, wouldn’t the team want to do everything it can to fill the holes at short, second, possibly at third, and on the bench? Is the team really going to let Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot set the table for Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman all year?

One thing’s for sure, they are not building for the future. But do they really have a chance to win now?

Now that the Winter Meetings are completed and Cardinal fans can start to digest the moves that have been made up to this point, a very under-the-radar part of the Winter Meetings that most look past is the Rule 5 draft. It’s simply a draft set up to prevent teams from loading up on young talent. Teams that don’t have top-tier farm are allowed to add some prospects to their Minor League systems.

Players like Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria, Johan Santana, Shane Victorino, and the great Roberto Clemente are some of the most notable Rule 5 draftees, so there’s obviously some importance in the draft. Unfortunately, you can also lose prospects. Which is exactly what happened to the Cardinals.

Brian Broderick, one of my favorite prospects, was picked up by the Washington Nationals. The 6’6” right-hander spent most of the season in Springfield where he posted an impressive 11-2 record with a 2.77 ERA and 1.093 WHIP while only walking 14 batters in over 100 innings of work.

It wasn’t a total loss for St. Louis though. They acquired former Toronto, Minnesota, and Chicago prospect Jean Mijares. While little is known about Mijares, he boasts some very impressive numbers that I noticed were very similar to one of the Cardinals top prospects Eduardo Sanchez. Mijares hasn’t really been a closer (only 11 saves five seasons) and is left-handed as opposed to right, but that is virtually the only difference between him and Sanchez. Both throw exceptionally hard, have a very small frame, have almost identical 2010 stats, and even grew up only miles away from each other.

By no means am I saying Mijares will have the same level of success that Sanchez has had throughout his Minor League career, but the similarity is definitely something to think about.

One thing Mijares needs to improve on if he wants to take a similar path through the Minors is his command (something Sanchez also had problems with). If he can learn how to hit his spots with a little more consistency, Mijares has potential to shoot through the Minors. He may not be a top Major League prospect, but could very well make a deep impact in the Cardinals farm system.

Can you think of past and current major league base players who were born in Hawaii? A few come to mind. Shane Victorino, current outfielder for the Phillies, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez, long time starting pitchers for the Mets, Charlie Hough, pitcher for Dodgers and Rangers, and Kurt Suzuki current catcher for the A’s.

There have been 36 Hawaiian born players to reach the major leagues. The Kansas City Royals happen to have two on their major league roster. First baseman Kila Ka’aihue and pitcher Kanekoa Texeira are just the eighth pair of native Hawaiians to be part of the same major league club at the same time.

Kanekoa Texeira was originally selected by the Chicago White Sox in the 22^nd round (675^th overall) of the 2006 First-Year Player Draft. He was traded to the New York Yankees on November 14, 2008 along with Nick Swisher in exchange for (current Royal) Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez. Texeira was then selected by the Seattle Mariners in the 2009 Rule 5 draft. He made the 2010 Mariners’ opening day roster but was designated for assignment on May 31, 2010 and claimed off waivers by the Kansas City Royals on June 3, 2010. Shane Victorino, a fellow Hawaiian, is Texeira’s cousin.

Texeira is currently a middle reliever. He does not have overpowering stuff, so he is being used in the sixth and seventh innings. He does not quite have the talent to be a set-up guy for Joakim Soria. Texeira is pitching much better than he did with the Mariners, but he still gives up too many hits. If he wants to stick around, in the major leagues the WHIP and ERA need to come down.

Kila Ka’aihue was drafted by the Royals in the 15^th round (438 overall) of the 2002 First-Year Player Draft. He has spent much of his professional career in the minor leagues. When rosters expanded on September 1, 2008 he was called up. He recorded his first major league hit on September 20, 2008. After spending all of 2009 in the minor leagues, Ka’aihue didn’t see the major leagues again until May of 2010.

Ka’aihue is off to a not-so-good start after being called up to the majors. He was giving the Royals all the right reasons that he needed and deserved to be given a chance. Ka’aihue needs to start hitting like he was hitting in the minors. There is plenty of talent coming through the system, and soon there will be extreme pressure put on his shoulders to perform. Hopefully he can start to show signs that he belongs in the majors. Right now Ka’aihue looks like he may be one of those guys who has 3.5 talent, which is too good for Triple A but not good enough for the Majors.

Ka’aihue’s younger brother, Kala Ka’aihue, is a designated hitter in the Oakland A’s organization. He is a couple years away from any opportunity to see action in majors.