Entering the season, one of the easy strengths for the Cardinals was the bullpen. It was a group that had a phenomenal second half and postseason a year ago, and was getting a boost from a few of the promising prospects in the organization finally reaching St. Louis as well. However, what’s gold doesn’t always glitter, and the bullpen has been remarkably dull in the early season, and already has the team search for new answers on a daily basis.

Coming into Tuesday, the parallels between the Cardinal staff were huge. While the team’s overall ERA is third in the National League at 3.24, the bullpen’s effort still drug the total down. It has been responsible for three Cardinals losses and had the worst overall ERA in the National League at 5.92. With five of the seven bullpen arms with ERAs over 4.00, it’s been a group effort to drag down every level of the bullpen’s effectiveness.

The current standing of the organization’s roster has created this idea of infinite options to solve every problem the team faces, but in reality facing the situation in the bullpen is the toughest issue for the organization to solve. The quick fix of plugging in a new (fill in the blank uber-prospect) truly denies the complexities of constructing a well-rounded roster, and especially bullpen. The Cardinals early struggles have been because it is a mixture of arms that are searching for new identities on the run. The loss of closer Jason Motte late in spring training is quickly showing to be the worst possible loss for the pitching staff, as there is no easy successor to his role. Even replacing Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse has gone much smoother than finding an answer for the one-inning door closer. Motte was responsible for the most important inning of them all, and has truly shown why not just anybody can be a closer.

But the scramble to find out how to account for the loss of the one absolute part of the pen from a year ago has been rough. Mitchell Boggs, while only truly blowing one save, has not inspired late game confidence. He is sporting an ERA over 9.00 in seven games, and managed to strikeout only one more batter than he’s walked. For whatever reason, he has not shown the same calm execution that he did an inning earlier a year ago, when he set the club record for holds with 34.

Yet he still is the clearest choice of the crowd in the pen for the job. The most frequent name that is clamored for is Trevor Rosenthal, who has in effect become the bridge to Boggs thus far. And while he’s got all the tools of a stereotypical closer (chiefly, the 100 mph fastball), he is absolutely not the answer right now. He’s still working out his arsenal so that he’s not all fastball, and it’s taking some time. In seven games this year, he’s surrendered runs in five of his appearances, and has struggled some with pitch count and location with runners on. These are the same issues Boggs is facing, yet they just aren’t magnified by the spotlight of the ninth inning yet, and are also cushioned by the optimism his promise brings. Although he is a member of the big league squad now, his development is still taking place and that is much better off not being burdened by the ninth inning quite yet.

So what else is there currently? Not much really. Edward Mujica has struggled mightily in his career the later on he has pitched (4.79 and 3.69 8^th and 9^th inning ERAs). Mark Rzepczynski and Randy Choate aren’t the type, and have an essential to keeping the situational management that eluded the team a year ago. That leaves the undesirable idea of moving a middle reliever to the back end of the bullpen in an ultimate trial run, promoting a new arm to the mix that isn’t ready for the pressure, or the absolute worst option, making a trade. Teams would hang the Cardinals out to dry for prospects and developing Major Leaguers to accommodate such a request, so it seems unlikely that route is taken, especially with the uncertain return date (and recent multi-year contract extension) of Motte still in the picture.

So where does this leave it all at? Boggs may very well not be closer material; he’s labored through nearly every outing thus far. Ultimately, a decision will have to be made, even if it means truly not making one. Is it a committee, based on who is the most capable at the moment, a la 2011? Maybe it’s Rosenthal ascending the role early. Or perhaps it’s Mujica by process of elimination (Matheny had him ready to enter on Monday if the game would have pulled within three). Or maybe it remains Boggs, simply by pulling himself together. Regardless, there’s no other choice that makes clear sense now, and really, “thus far” isn’t that far at all. All of this could be for naught, but for better or worse in the time being, this is what there is to roll with. So affairs will have to straighten themselves out, because there’s no other choice but for them to do so.

Some of the Kansas City Royals players, including Salvador Perez and Bruce Chen, have posted a “Harlem Shake” video.

From Wikipedia: The videos last between 30 and 32 seconds and feature an excerpt from the song “Harlem Shake” by electronic musician Baauer. Usually, a video begins with one person (often helmeted or masked) dancing to the song alone for 15 seconds, surrounded by other people not paying attention or unaware of the dancing individual. When the bass drops, the video cuts to the entire crowd doing a crazy convulsive dance for the next 15 seconds. Moreover, in the second half of the video, people often wear a minimum of clothes or crazy outfits or costumes while wielding strange props.

It was only a matter of time.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
Follow him on Twitter here.

Two years waiting for the All Star Game to come to Kansas City is over.  Not only is the wait over but also the game is over.  It was a great three days in Kansas City and by all accounts the city was a great host for the 83rd All Star Game.  Not only did record crowds head out to Kauffman Stadium for all of the activities but the fan base showed just how loyal that they can be to their hometown boys.  All of that being said, reality has set in and the Kansas City Royals still have just under half of their games yet to play.  It could be an interesting second half for the boys that play at the K.  An array of story-lines could occur in the next couple of months that would send the media in Kansas City stirring.

What will the Royals do in the trade market over the next few weeks is probably the biggest current question that fans and media have surrounding the organization. For the first time in a long time the Royals could be both buyers and sellers.  Selling their stock in guys like Jonathan Broxton, Jeff Franceour, and Yuniesky Betancourt.  No doubt will these three names be on the top of Dayton Moore’s list of players that other teams may need.   Broxton has shown this season that coming of of an injury he is still able to close games, even if he does give everyone watching a heart attack while doing so.   There are always a few teams looking for that closer at the deadline and with the way that the Royals bullpen is set up if Broxton is moved they have many that could step in a fill his role. Some teams have stated that they are in need of a right handed bat and the Royals have two that are expendable at this point.  Franceour, even though having what most would say is a terrible year, could still give a lineup some pop and nothing would make fans in Kansas City happier than to see room on the field made for number 1 hitting prospect Wil Myers.  Betancourt could also be a movable piece not only because over the last month he has turned in on as a run producer but also because the Royals have a plethora of serviceable second basemen that could fill right in. These guys would probably just bring prospects back but could be packaged together to get something in return that could help both this year and for the future.

The proof will be in the pudding whether the Royals truly are buyers in this years market. Tim Collins name has been thrown into the trading pool and could be a good addition to a trade that could bring more pitching to the Royals organization.  The thing that every team needs when they are buyers are numerous guys that can be plugged into a trade that could give good value to another organization.  The biggest thing that the Royals need if they are going to buy is pitching.  There are a few pitchers out there that could help this team out not only for this year but also would be able to sign here and stay on for the future.  The biggest names that the Royals could trade for would be Zach Grienke and Cole Hamels but  are they going sign here after this season woudl be the biggest question that they Royals will have to ponder when making a buyers trade.  One pitcher that would seem to fit nicely in the Royals staff and on that would have no problem signing here would be Milwaukee Brewers starter Shaun Marcum.  A local guy from Excelsior Springs that would love nothing more than to be able to come home and pitch for a team that I am sure he grew up watching.   The things that this deal and a future contract for Marcum could do for the team is show other free agents of the future that they Royals are willing to pay.  If they truly want to win they are going to have to pay at least two top starters to come to Kansas City and then fill in the other slots in the rotation with guys that they either already have or are developing.

The Royals have a lot of work to do over the next couple of weeks.  They could sell some guys to continue to build the minor league system and they could buy players with prospects that they already have in the system that could help with the big league club now and in the future.  General Manager Dayton Moore will have to prove to fans that he is able to go out and get a guy to help the team because his trade for Jonathan Sanchez last winter seems to continue to haunt fans as Melky Cabrera cam back to Kansas City and was named the All Star Game MVP.  Do the knives in the backs of Royals fans ever stop?

Although three games remain before the All-Star break, the Kansas City Royals concluded the first half of their season on a good note with a 9-6 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Royals will travel to Detroit for a three game weekend series before the boys in blue get a much needed breather while the mid-summer classic is in Kansas City.  Overall, besides the record, there have been many good things that the Royals have done over the first 81 games of the season.

After starting the season at a dismal 3-15, which included a 12 game losing streak, the Royals are 34-29 since and still have an outside shot for the division going into the second half of the season. Seeing that this team is so young and just learning how to win in the major leagues ending the season at a .500 mark would be huge for this organization to build confidence for the future.

One thing that will need to change for the Royals to have a chance at winning 44 games in the second half would be the starting pitching.  With Bruce Chen finding his stride in the latter part of the second half and Luke Hochevar still toying with fans by throwing 2 good outings and then having a game where he looks like former Royal Kyle Davies, the pitching has improved at the front of the rotation.  But the big elephant in the clubhouse is starter Jonathan Sanchez.  It is not only the fact that he has not been good at all this year on the mound but that he just doesn’t seem to care.  There are guys in this clubhouse i.e. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon that have been through the struggles of being a Royal throughout their careers and now that the talent is on the field want nothing but to win.  When a front office and even a manager continue to put a guy on the mound every fifth day that doesn’t seem to have the stuff to win nor care enough to change something about it what does that say to the rest of the team.  It says the we made a mistake in the trade but cannot admit it.  Well if you are going to triumph in your good personnel decisions then you also have to admit when it is just not working out.  Pitching is the key for the Royals in the second half and for the future of the team. Now whether that be promoting from within your organization or going out and making a trade that can boost both the guys in the clubhouse and the position of this team in the division standings.

If the team was to go out and get a guy via trade this season or sign one of the arms coming out in free agency over the offseason they could be a contender.  If the Royals could sign one of the two big arms in free agency, being Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke, this rotation gets better as a whole right away. Not only are you getting an ace arm on your staff but it would also make the rest of your starters better.  The fact that right now the Royals are throwing Bruce Chen against other teams number one guy is just not fair.  Bruce would be a great three or four for the Royals but they have to find a number one starters first.  Back to what was said earlier, if the team can get to .500 with as young a team as they have it would be an easy sell for any big name to come to Kansas City to play on a team that is ready to win.

A few changes could be made in the field by the time the Royals season comes to an end later this year.  With the way that second basemen Yunieksy Betancourt is playing as of late he could be a good right handed bat for a team.  Filling the organization with more prospects would help to fill the holes that are left when guys are promoted to the big league level.  Also, Jeff Franceour could be playing in a different uniform before long which would be bittersweet for many fans as he is a fan favorite but that would also open up a spot in the field for the number one hitting prospect in the organization in Wil Myers. No telling what moves will be made before the trade deadline but this team may look a little different than it does now.

So previewing here a little bit here is what could be the future of the Royals both in the field and on the mound. (Some are for this season and some are for the future beyond that, but for this to happen the team is going to have to spend some money for this to come true)

Starting Rotation

1. A new guy (Matt Garza, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels)
2. Luke Hochevar
3. Danny Duffy
4. Jake Odorizzi
5. Bruce Chen

Batting Order

1. Alex Gordon-left field
2. Alcides Escobar-shortstop
3. Eric Hosmer-first base
4. Billy Butler-designated hitter
5. Mike Moustakas-third base
6. Wil Myers-right field
7. Salvador Perez-catcher
8. Lorenzo Cain-center field
9. Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella-second base

If this is the team that the Royals could field in the future not only for seasons to come but maybe even for a month or two this season they could win and win a lot. I am not saying go for broke this year because this is not the year for the Royals to try and win a division but if they can get this team on the field sooner rather than later they could learn not only to win at a young age but win together.  Team chemistry is the key here and having guys like Billy Butler and Salvador Perez in the clubhouse the leadership that Royals teams in the past have lacked is a pretty good commodity to have.  Once again, a lot of positives can be taken from the first half of the season but the holes that the Royals do have need to be filled soon for this team to win.  And if they make a move or two watch out.  It has been so long since the Royals won that one cannot even say that the Royals are back.  The simple thing to say would be “The Royals are here, and here to stay.”

While throwing to rookie Salvador Perez in the second half of 2011, Kansas City Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar had his most consistent run of success in his career.

Luke Hochevar has been an enigma for most of his career. Early on, he was mostly bad with a few starts here and there that showed the ability that the Royals saw when they drafted him 1st overall in the 2006 amateur draft. Over the years, the good starts became a little more frequent, with a few outstanding performances thrown in. But when he was bad, he was really bad. It wasn’t until the second half of last season that Hochevar began to show some consistency. He still had some great starts, but his off-days were average instead of horrendous. They say that a pitcher should be judged on how he performs on his worst day, rather than on his best day. Hochevar’s worst days became much better in the 2nd half of 2011, which gave Royals fans much hope for him to continue this trend in 2012. Unfortunately, it was not to be. On April 13 for the Royals home opener, Hochevar gave up 7 runs in the top of the 1st inning which would be the beginning of one of the most horrific stretches of pitching for a starting pitcher in recent American history. His ERA currently sits at 7.02 for the season while pitching to Humberto Quintero in all 8 of his starts this season.

Salvador Perez was called up by the Royals last August and started his first game at Catcher on August 10. He caught each of Hochevar’s last 7 starts of the season. During this stretch he threw 45 2/3 innings and gave up 22 runs for a 4.34 ERA. In the first start he gave up 5 runs, so if you take out that one, assuming he was getting acclimated to having a new catcher behind the plate, the ERA is lowered to 4.17. Now, while an ERA over 4.00 will not win Hochevar any Cy Young awards, Royals fans would undoubtedly be pleased if he could provide numbers like this on a consistent basis.

While it may be a stretch to try and make this correlation, it cannot be discounted that if Hochevar can experience some success once Salvador Perez returns, that he will be the one common denominator. It cannot be understated how important consistency at the Catcher position is to the success of a pitching staff. And while Royals fans have seen pitching coaches come and go, and starting pitchers displaying maddening levels of inconsistency, perhaps it is the game of musical chairs that the Royals have played at the Catcher position over the last several years that is most responsible for this. Time will tell. Perez is due back in a couple weeks. Hopefully he can help Hochevar “turn the corner” one more time.

The St. Louis Cardinals got Jake Westbrook at the 2010 trade deadline, and he performed well enough down the stretch to earn a 2-year contract with a mutual option on a third year.  Last season he did not perform like the 2010 stretch Westbrook, though to be fair he did pitch to his career averages.  What do we want to to see from Jake in 2012?  More 2010 Westbrook, and less 2011 Westbrook, of course.  How does he get there?

Westbrook historically allows a lot of base runners.  Last year he allowed at least a runner per inning in his victories, and in his no-decisions and losses it was closer to 2 runners per inning.  If Jake was not on his game it was obvious early; he only threw 43 innings in his 9 losses, and allowed almost as many hits, walks, and HR as he did in the 75 innings he threw during his 12 victories.  Opposing hitters hammered him to the tune of a .368 BABIP in games he lost; in his wins, his BABIP was 100 points lower.

OK, if he pitches to less contact he’ll be more successful in 2012, right?  It’s not that simple.  In his 2011 losses, his K/9 was actually higher than in his wins (5.2 to 4.7), and in his no-decisions it was even higher.  The year before they were virtually identical (5.3 to 5.5), although again his K/9 in no-decisions was higher.  Striking out more hitters so there are fewer balls in play does not seem to be a key to Westbrook’s success.

So what can he change in order to return closer to his 2010 Cardinal form?  Take a look at his Fangraphs page, specifically the pitch type section, for a possible answer.  After the trade to St Louis Westbrook essentially ditched his cutter.  He threw a fastball more frequently, threw his slider marginally more frequently, and threw his change-up marginally less frequently than he had while with Cleveland earlier in the year.  In 2011, he threw his fastball slightly less frequently and his change-up with the same frequency as he had the second half of 2010.  He made two major changes:  he threw fewer sliders than in any year since 2007, and he threw more cutters than in any season ever.*

One has to wonder why the drastic change.  Arm trouble?  Inability to get a feel for the pitch that persisted most of the season?  A lack of feel would make sense, because his slider got hammered (based on Fangraphs linear weights) throughout 2011 and no sane pitcher would consistently throw a pitch they knew could cause whiplash while watching it leave the home plate area.

It would seem the key to Westbrook’s success is his slider.  It has been a crucial pitch for him throughout his career and had served him well up to last season.  As we prepare for pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training 2012, we need to watch Westbrook’s progress with his slider.  If he has a feel for it, look for 2010-type performances this season, with 2011 game play a distant (and hopefully rapidly fading) memory.  If he can’t find it again, maybe we can get Roy Oswalt back on the phone.

*Some of the change in fastball/cutter percentage may be due to refinement in the pitch f/x systems ability to detect the difference, however the change in how often he threw a slider cannot be explained away by a measurement software change.

Mike Metzger is a baseball writer based out of San Diego.  He also blogs about the Padres.  Follow him on Twitter.

The Cardinals have arrived at the All-Star break with a 49-43 record, tied with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. Considering all of the obstacles the team has had to endure in the first half of the season, it really is a remarkable achievement – even in a less-than-stellar division.

It will not be easy, however, for the Cardinals to stay in that spot the rest of the season. Whether or not that can happen will no doubt be a team, and an organization, effort – but there are some individuals whose performances likely will matter a little more than others.

Here then is the list of the 10 Most Important Cardinals for the second half of the season:

The Cardinals are used to having Pujols carry them, but that has not happened so far this year. If anything, it is the Cardinals who have carried Pujols. Even if Pujols’ poor start to the season and his absence for two weeks with a broken arm have left him in a tough spot to extend his streak of hitting 30 homers, driving in 100 runs and hitting .300 or better, he still can carry the Cardinals to a division title.

1. Albert Pujols.

What Pujols needs to do is forget about what has happened so far, forget about any statistical goals and forget about his contract status – none of which will be easy. He needs many more moments like his key eighth-inning home run on Saturday night. If Pujols can come out and let his talent and ability take over, he can be the dominating player the Cardinals need him to be – and then everything else will take care of itself.

2. Chris Carpenter.

His 1-7 start was well documented, even if he was pitching better than his record. A three-game winning streak followed, but then he was roughed up by the Diamondbacks on Saturday night.

For the Cardinals to win, they must have an ace in the starting rotation, a pitcher who can go out and stop losing streaks. With Adam Wainwright out for the year, Carpenter has to be that pitcher. Jaime Garcia does not have the experience to do it, even if he has the ability, and it isn’t fair to expect it from any of the team’s other three starters,

Carpenter does not have to have a John Tudor-like season from 1985, throwing 10 shutouts and finishing with a sub-2.00 ERA, but he has to be the leader and the hammer on the staff. Like Pujols, he can’t let his personal situation – wondering if the Cardinals will pick up his option for next year – get in the way of pitching, and winning, the way he can.

3. Fernando Salas.

Barring a trade for a more proven closer, Salas is going to be the guy. He had a solid first half, converting 16 of 18 save opportunities, and showed composure like a veteran. Trying to close out games in a pennant race in August and September, however, is a challenge he has never experienced before.

As the Cardinals saw when Ryan Franklin was struggling at the start of the year, nothing can deflate a team quicker than blowing leads in the ninth inning. Blowing one game is one thing, but a closer has to have the ability to forget about it immediately and not let it become a habit. Whether Salas has the ability to do that, as a rookie, will be one of the main factors determining the team’s success or failure the rest of the season.

4. David Freese.

When you look at the Cardinals’ lineup, and the performances of those players in the first half of the season, there are only three who really can be expected to produce at a higher level in the second half – and the most important to the team’s success might be Freese.

If he can stay healthy, and hit for a high average and drive in runs as he has done in the past, Freese will help take some of the pressure off the Cardinals’ main offensive threats in Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. Freese also should be able to pick up some of the slack if any of those should go into some kind of slumps.

5. Colby Rasmus.

The player other than Freese who needs to produce more in the second half of the season than he did in the first is Rasmus. He also has the pressure of worrying that he might lose some playing time to Jon Jay if he does not produce on a more consistent basis. If he struggles, he is also more likely to hear his name start to pop up in trade discussions, which might create a big distraction if he lets that bother him.

Hitting either second or sixth in the lineup most of the time, Rasmus will find himself at the plate in a lot of crucial situations. Hitting second, he has to be able to consistently get on base in fromt of Pujols, and if he is hitting sixth, RBIs have to become his major focus.

6. John Mozeliak.

The only non-player on the list is one of the Most Important Cardinals because he will be the person who determines what moves the team makes or doesn’t make before the July 31 trading deadline.

The team might try to add a proven closer, or they might decide to add a starting pitcher. For the first time in many years, the Cardinals have players in their farm system which other teams want. Mozeliak cannot be so short-sighted and focused on this season, however, that he makes a trade which will have a negative impact on the organization for years to come.

7. Kyle McClellan.

The converted reliever got off to a great start after moving into the starting rotation, but has struggled lately. He has to prove he can go deeper into games and come out on the winning side. Any struggles in the bullpen will increase the pressure on the Cardinals to move McClellan back to a relief role, and if he wants to remain a starter, for this year and beyond, he has to prove he can do the job.

8. A lefthanded reliever.

At the moment, the Cardinals do not have one on the roster who inspires confidence that he can come in and retire a lefthanded hitter at a key moment in the game. Whether Trever Miller, Raul Valdes, or Brian Tallet, when he comes off the disabled list, can become that reliever remains to be seen. More than likely, the pitcher who will be asked to fill that role in August and September is not currently on the roster.

9. Lance Berkman.

No doubt the biggest surprise of the first half for the Cardinals, there is little expectation that Berkman can repeat his success in the second half. He should not have to, if the team can get increased contributions from Pujols, Freese and Rasmus. What he will be called upon to do, however, is continue to be the motivating influence who has had such a positive impact on the team’s attitude and camaraderie.

10. Jon Jay.

He might be the player who puts the most pressure on manager Tony La Russa in the second half, trying to figure out a way to keep him in the lineup on a consistent basis. The fact he is a better defensive center fielder than Rasmus, at least right now, is going to make it even tougher to have him sitting on the bench. The battle for playing time between Rasmus and Jay could become one of the more intriguing story lines to watch the rest of the season.

Head over to RobRains.com to see Rob’s news from around Major and Minor League Baseball.

The biggest story of June could be decisions facing the club regarding whether or not to call up any of their top prospects. Rookies called up in June or after do not qualify for “super two” status, thus delaying arbitration eligibility down the line. It will be an exciting month if one or more of the heralded prospects make their debut.

Besides that, the second half of the month will be entirely inter-league with series against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Padres.

June Breakdown:

Total Games: 27

Home: 15

Road: 12

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 14

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 10

Vs teams in the AL Central: 4

Inter-league games: 12

Key Series:

June 2-5 vs. Minnesota – This is the only series against an AL Central opponent all month, but it will only be a key series if the Royals have a surprising start and are having dreams of contention.

June 17-19 @ St. Louis – After hosting the Cards in May, the Royals head across the state for the second part of the 2011 I-70 series.

Key To a Hot Start:

The first nine games of the month are home games, so the Royals will have to take full advantage of home cooking.

At the end of June:

If the Royals are above .500… The Royals will have beaten up on the National League, something that is not entirely out of the question.

If the Royals are .500… They will have significantly over-achieved.

If the Royals are below .500… No one will be surprised.

What a disappointing season it has been. One of the most frustrating of recent memory, and I don’t think I’m going out on a limb with that one. The roster has been battered with injuries and sub-par performances seem to be the norm with this team.

There’s no doubt Mozeliak will have his hands full this offseason, as it seems like the more games we play, the more needs we uncover. You know your team’s season is over when you start thinking about what needs to happen in the winter months, but unfortunately the season is over. It’s time to forget about the “mathematical possibilities” and start thinking about what this team is going to look like in 2011.

Upcoming Cardinal Free Agents

Jeff Suppan, SP
The only way he gets resigned is if the organization wants to bring him back for roster depth. His career as a starter in St. Louis are, without a doubt, over. Is he coming back? No.

Jake Westbrook, SP
I’m thinking the Cardinals could get him back for $7-9MM per year and I strongly believe they will do their absolute best to bring Jake back. He has proved to be a reliable, innings-eating starter. Is he coming back? Yes.

Brad Penny, SP
Considering his nagging injuries that have never really seemed to go away, Penny has become a very low-cost, veteran starting pitcher. He has said that he wants to resign with the team and that would happen for around $3-5MM per year. Is he coming back? Yes.

Pedro Feliz, 3B
There is no doubt in my mind that this will be his only season wearing a Cardinals uniform. Who knows, maybe it’s his last season all-together. Is he coming back? No.

Aaron Miles, INF
With veterans like Schumaker, Ryan, Lopez, and youngsters like Greene and Descalso, Miles is going to have a hard time fitting in. We all know Tony likes the guy, but it’s about time to get over that crush. Is he coming back? No.

Dennys Reyes, RP
The dude’s getting a little old, and his stats are really starting to inflate. His second half this season has been dreadful. Unless he signs a very cheap contract, I don’t see it happening. Is he coming back? No.

Randy Winn, OF
If LaRussa was making the Front Office decisions (let’s hope he isn’t), then Winn would sign a $60 million contract for the next five years. Is he coming back? No.

Felipe Lopez, INF
He brings instant depth, which is absolutely huge. Lopez has proved that he can handle nearly every position on the field (he even pitched in ’10) and that will really appeal to the club when they decide if they want to resign him for $1-2MM. Is he coming back? Yes.

Jason LaRue, C
This is just a real unfortunate situation for LaRue. Not only is he out for the season with an injury sustained when Johnny Cueto kicked him in the face, Jason is also 36-years-old. Catchers that are approaching 40 fast are not exactly in high-demand. And with the arrival of Bryan Anderson, and Pagnozzi and Hill in the Minors, there really isn’t a need for JLR. Is he coming back? No.

Mike MacDougal, RP
Ha! Well… not much to say here other than nope. Is he coming back? No.

Trevor Miller, RP
Miller’s case is a little different than everybody else. He has an option for 2011, so he can basically come back if he wishes. Now that he is 37-years-old, picking up the option seems extremely logical. Is he coming back? Yes.

Keep in mind that those are my predictions. I’m not holding out on you guys with any inside information, I’m just making simple predictions. If I am correct, we will be losing Jeff Suppan, Pedro Feliz, Aaron Miles, Dennys Reyes, Randy Winn, Jason LaRue, and Mike MacDougal to free agency. That obviously clears up some room on the roster, but here’s a view at what the depth chart looks like if my predictions are, in fact, correct. There obviously cannot be this many people on the roster at one time, I’m just previewing which players could contribute in 2011, and where.

Catcher – Yadier Molina, Bryan Anderson, Steven Hill*, Matt Pagnozzi*
First Base – Albert Pujols, Mark Hamilton*
Second Base – Skip Schumaker, Felipe Lopez, Daniel Descalso*
Third Base – David Freese, Felipe Lopez, Allen Craig*, Joe Mather*, Matt Carpenter*
Shortstop – Brendan Ryan, Felipe Lopez, Tyler Greene
Left Field – Matt Holliday, Nick Stavinoha, Joe Mather
Center Field – Colby Rasmus, Jon Jay
Right Field – Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Nick Stavinoha, Joe Mather

Starting Pitcher – Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Brad Penny, Lance Lynn*, P.J. Walters*, Blake Hawksworth, Brandon Dickson*, Kyle Lohse, Adam Ottavino, Evan MacLane*
Relief Pitcher – Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs, Ryan Franklin, Blake Hawksworth, Eduardo Sanchez*, Trevor Miller, Josh Kinney*, P.J. Walters*, Brandon Dickson*, Kyle Lohse, Adam Ottavino, Evan MacLane*

* denotes a Minor Leauge player that could make an appearance in St. Louis

Looking at all of that, I think there are three obvious holes that need to be filled. Third base is a no-brainier. I think it is unanimous that the Cardinals need help at the hot-corner. Freese will most likely be the Opening Day starter, and I have no problem with that, but the guy is way too fragile. It has been a problem throughout all of his career, and it has certainly hurt the team in 2010.

Another glaring weakness is the middle infield. Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumaker, and Felipe Lopez are not going to cut it. Looking back at the disappointing season I think fans are going to realize that the team simply did not have enough talent in the lineup to support a very impressive core. Billy Beane is a personal icon of mine, and I’ll take a page out of his book when I say that on-base percentage is the most important offensive stat. Schumaker, Ryan, and Lopez are the type of speedy infielders that typically have nice OBPs. Schumaker’s is .333 (31 points lower than his ’09 mark), Ryan’s is a horrid .282 (58 points lower than ’09), and Lopez’s is .311 (72 points lower than ’09). Cardinal Nation, I think that is pretty telling.

The only other area that I would like to see improve is right field. I know some of you have a crush on Jon Jay because he came to the big leagues and absolutely raked for a couple months, but if you look at the numbers you will see that he is starting to come back down to earth. In June and July Jay batted .442, which is pretty remarkable. Since then, he has an average of .244. Jon Jay is a very good, athletic outfield that shows a lot of promise. I really like the kid, but I’m not 100% sure we can rely on him as a starter. The Cardinals need to pursue a quality outfielder to platoon with Jay, or I’m afraid we’ll be scrambling at the trade deadline yet again.

My “Shopping List”

Willie Bloomquist, RF/SS/2B, 32 years old
This would definitely be interesting for the I-70 community, as Bloomquist is a former Kansas City Royal. He’s a veteran utility player that any manager would love to have. He has played all outfield and infield positions this season, so he would be able to help out the middle infield and Jon Jay. In Bloomquist’s lost four seasons, he has hit .270 while averaging 15 stolen bases. In 2008, he had a .377 OBP with Seattle.
Projected 2011 Salary: $1-2 million

Mark Ellis, 2B, 33 years old
I am a huge Mark Ellis advocate. If there is such a thing as playing the “Cardinal way”, Mark Ellis will demonstrate that more than anyone. He may be resigned, but the A’s have some young second basemen in there system so I would not be shocked if he’s let go. Ellis is a very good defender who is hitting .274 this season with Oakland. In his career Mark has averaged 14 home runs and 68 RBI (per 162 games), so he does have a little pop. Billy Beane has said that he has not made a decision on Ellis, and that he wants to wait until after the season.
Projected 2011 Salary: $5-7 million

Kaz Matsui, 2B, 34 years old
I know what you are thinking, but this actually isn’t as crazy as it sounds. He’s decent in the field but has had some very good offensive seasons. In 2004-2009 Kaz hit .271 with 57 RBI while stealing 28 bases (per 162). He’s coming off a very bad season in Houston, so he should come at a very low price. He’s your typical high-risk/high-reward type of infielder, but why not take a chance with him?
Projected 2011 Salary: $1-2 million

Cristian Guzman, SS, 32 years old
This past season it seemed like I heard Guzman’s name quite often as a guy that the Cardinals should acquire, so maybe he finally ends up in St. Louis in 2011. Like Matsui, he’s not great in the field, but has proved his worth at the plate. Guzman has led the league in triples three times and is a two-time All Star. Combining the past four seasons he’s hit .296, and in 2007 he had a .380 OBP. Per 162 games, Cristian averages 15 stolen bases and 54 RBI.
Projected 2011 Salary: $4-6 million

Adrian Beltre, 3B, 31 years old
How could I not include this one? Even though I don’t think there is anyway this move is made, I have to take a look at it. The main reason why I do not see this happening is because the organization loves David Freese. They think he is an All-Star caliber third baseman. If they truly believe that, why would they replace him? Not to mention, MLB Trade Rumors says Beltre will likely receive a $50M deal over four years. He’s had a great season and I would love to see him in St. Louis, but I would honestly be shocked to see it happen. Besides, his .342 BABIP this season indicates 2011 could be very disappointing.
Projected 2011 Salary: $11-13 million

Brandon Inge, 3B/C, 33 years old
How many times has Inge been a part of trade rumors involving the Cardinals? Detroit obviously doesn’t want him, and he’s fit into St. Louis perfectly, so what’s the harm? Inge has a pretty good glove and does just fine on offense. He’s having a .252 season with 11 home runs and 63 RBI. In 2006 and 2009 Inge hit 25+ home runs. The problem with Brandon is how often he strikes out.
Projected 2011 Salary: $6-7 million

Brad Hawpe, RF, 31 years old
Usually former Coors Field players make me cringe. If you don’t understand that, check out Carlos Gonzalez’s home and away stats for 2010. It’s a very simple fact that Colorado hitters can be a little overrated thanks to Coors. However, oddly enough, Hawpe’s numbers are that much better at home compared to on the road. In the past four seasons Hawpe has had at least 20 home runs and 80 RBI (including 29/116 in ’07). Even more impressive is his lifetime .373 OBP and two years of a SLG over 900.
Projected 2011 Salary: $4-5 million

Gearing up for the second half

The A’s and the Royals have had similar seasons to this point. Both teams are currently in fourth place in their respective divisions. The Royals ended the first half of the season by dropping three straight games to the rivals, the Chicago White Sox. The A’s took two out of three from the All-Star hosting Angels.

Game 1: Zack Greinke vs. Gio Gonzalez

Greinke missed his last start this past Sunday but with nine days between starts he should be good to go for the series opener on Friday night. Career-wise versus the A’s he is undefeated with an ERA of 2.88 and 49 strikeouts. In his lone start last year, he gave up three runs on seven hits while getting the win by a score of 12-6.

Gonzalez struggled right before the break. His previous three starts he has been struggling with his control. He has issued thirteen walks, including five in four innings against the Yankees on July 7th. Despite his recent control issues he is above .500 with a record of 7-6 going into the second half. He is 0-1 in career starts versus the Royals with an ERA of 7.79 in 9.1 innings. This includes the one outing he had against the Royals in 2009 when he gave up four walks, six hits and five runs in 5.1 innings of work.

Game 2: Bruce Chen vs. Trevor Cahill

If you were to just look at this season’s stats on this pitching matchup, you would have to expect Cahill to be successful. He has been labeled the ace of their pitching staff while Bruce Chen is a mid-season call up. Bruce however has faced the A’s before and has had some success. He is 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 18 Ks in 36.2 innings pitched. Last year the A’s only managed a .231 batting average against him.

Cahill has been an unhittable at times during the first half of the season and his All-Star nod was a confirmation of that fact. He enters the second half with a 9-3 record and a 2.94 ERA. He has performed far beyond his other teammates in the rotation to this point. ON the other hand, he does have recent struggles against the Royals. Despite having a 2-0 record against the boys in blue, he has an ERA over four.

Game 3: Brian Bannister vs. Vin Mazzaro

Bannister has had success in day time pitching. However, when pitching against the A’s he has struggled. He is 1-4 with a 5.02 ERA and only 23 Ks in 43 innings pitched. His last start against the Chicago White Sox he gave up five runs including three jacks. Coach Yost has emphasized quality starting pitching. If the Royals are going to have success in the second half, Bannister is one of the veteran starters to have to be consistent. He has two starts against Oakland last year and was shelled. The A’s managed a .341 batting average in those two games.

Mazzaro has a 1-0 career mark versus the Royals even though he has a 5.40 ERA. The Royals did hit him well last year and managed a .364 average. This young hurler has performed well as of late winning two of his last three starts and has his ERA down to 3.81.

Offense

The Royals need to pick up right where they left off at the end of the 1st half, the best hitting team in baseball. They may not hit it out a lot but 2-3 singles and the occasional double is enough to score with the speed they have at the top of their lineup.

The A’s finished right in the middle of the American League with a .262 team batting average. If they are patient they can pick apart the Royals staff that has at times struggled against them.

Defense

The Royals currently are ranked tenth in the AL with .982 fielding percentage. This is still a really good number considering that they have had fluctuations in their lineup. Callaspo finished the first half with errors in back to back losses versus the White Sox. I’m not saying his errors were the reasons for the losses but errors extend innings and give extra outs to the offense.

The A’s are right in the middle in this category as well. They have a fielding percentage of .984.

Pitching

Regardless of what he might think, Zack is a veteran leader on this team. How he performs on the field directly influences the other eight. The Royals need “Zack Attack” to make a statement on Friday night. It needs to translate into something like this:

“I won the Cy Young last year and here’s why.”

Bannister and Chen need to also have solid performances.

The A’s have some sleepers on their staff and they can be very effective.

X-Factor

The Royals are throwing their best three starters and are playing at home after some extended time off. Their recent success against Oakland should provide a much needed boost to the boys in blue.

The A’s are coming off the break strong after winning a series against the Angels. The Royals lost their three games before the break. If they can get some timely hitting against Greinke on Friday, it will provide the momentum they need to win the series.

Both teams have called Kansas City home at one point in their respective franchise’s history. It will be fun to watch who takes the series.