Tag Archive | "Reds"

Uncertainty

The St. Louis Cardinals have just come off a road trip, a key one, at 4-6. They still have the second Wild Card spot, thanks to the Pirates and Dodgers having some rough series of their own (up by 1/2 a game on LA and 1.5 on Pittsburgh, as of 10 AM Mon. 9/3), but it’s safe to say that the Cards probably didn’t get the job done.

Carlos Beltran slides in an attempt to field a ball hit by Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond. The play would result in a 2-run RBI single. (Source: AP)

After taking 3 of 4 from Cincinnati, the Cardinals went 2-5 in their last seven games. In a four-game stretch on the road trip, the Cardinals were outscored 32-1 by their opponent. Thankfully the Cardinals didn’t lose much ground in the Wild Card chase, but the team definitely could have used a little more breathing room heading into September.

The expanded rosters may just be the kick that the Cardinals need to push on to the playoffs. Reports are flying that top prospect Shelby Miller will be called up, and Chris Carpenter has begun throwing again and feels good.

In their remaining schedule, St. Louis faces just three teams with winning records: the Dodgers (Sept 14-16 in LA), Nationals (Sept 28-30) and Reds (Oct 1-3).

The narrative seems now to have pushed from a bad bullpen and streaky offense to bad pitching, a severely-slumping offense, and injuries with bad timing. Rafael Furcal may be out for 4-6 weeks or the rest of the season, no matter how long that happens to be. Whoever replaces him will be a downgrade, and just another hole that the Cards can’t fill.

Only time will tell what happens now, whether the Cardinals right the ship and stay in the playoff hunt or play themselves out of it. There aren’t any signs pointing in either direction at the moment, but it shouldn’t take long to find out what the rest of the season has in store for our beloved Redbirds. Where’s the Rally Squirrel when you need him?

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Tub-slumping

The six-hour, 19-inning marathon that took place on Sunday was just another kink in the chain that is the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals’ season. The Cardinals’ heart of the order, the one so dominant when they are all hitting well, was a combined 2 for 22.Matt Holliday was 0 for 7, Carlos Beltran 2 for 7 and David Freese 0 for 8.   A game that saw Jaime Garcia dominate in his return from an arm injury, looking like the Garcia of 2010, was marred by poor offense and some strange decision-making.

 

St. Louis had chance after chance to end the game with a W. The biggest opportunity came in the 17th. Skip Schumaker‘s single to center, the one that Andrew McCutchen bobbled, turned out to be the deciding moment of the game. Had Schumaker seen McCutchen fumble the ball and advanced to 2nd as Cutch threw to 3rd, Jon Jay”s base hit likely would’ve been the game-winning hit.

But, instead of a wild and entertaining 17-inning win, Cardinal fans find themselves talking about a heartbreaking 19-inning loss. Instead of being tied for the second Wild Card spot, St. Louis remains two games back of Pittsburgh.

Manager Mike Matheny is right when he said earlier this week that the team is struggling to get the one timely hit that can get the Cardinals a victory. The Cardinals’ offense may be the best in the league statistically, but it also one of the streakiest in baseball. Take the 8-2 win over San Francisco on August 6th, for example. Two days later, the Cardinals were embarrassed by the Giants in a 15-0 loss.

The Cards have had a string of rough losses as of late. The blown save by closer Jason Motte on Thursday and struggling offense on Friday led to two very frustrating one-run losses. St. Louis is 13-21 in one-run games in 2012. By comparison, Cincinnati is 20-17, while Pittsburgh is 25-20. With Sunday’s extra inning loss, the Cardinals’ record in such games fell to 3-9. The Pirates are now 4-0 in extras, while the Reds are 4-5.

Starting with tonight’s game against the Astros, the Redbirds will play 16 straight games before their next off day. Ten of them will be on the road – against the division-leading Reds, Pirates, and NL East-leading Nationals respectively. This stretch – particularly the games on the road – will likely determine whether the team will have what it takes to make the playoffs, or roll over and be watching from home once the regular season ends.

In order for the Cards to prove themselves, they must get everything clicking at once. That means that the heart of the order must get out of their respective slumps, the bullpen must right the ship, the offense must be consistent, and Motte needs to return to his old self. In addition, the team must win more one-run ballgames and win more in extras. It might be too much to ask at this point in the season. The Cards were able to find their way late last year, however, and have to do that if they want to play baseball in October.

Last year, St. Louis pulled off an improbable feat. The circumstances in 2012 are not near what they were a season ago, but some of that magic needs to rub off on this team. It’s not necessarily time to panic just yet, but time is running out. The good news is, the Cards have all the tools. All we can do now is just watch and wait.

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Bright Spots And Last Gasps

As the 2011 season winds down, the St. Louis Cardinals’ hopes for postseason play dwindle with every passing day.

StockPhoto

Photo Courtesy of Erika Lynn

To put it in perspective, the Cardinals were 10.5 games back of the Brewers going into the three game series at Milwaukee at the end of August. It was the beginning of a stretch where the Cards were playing the Brew Crew in six of their upcoming nine games. The Cardinals won five of those six games. Can’t ask for much more than that, especially considering the Cards swept the series at Miller Park. But the series in the middle was won by the Reds, and the Brewers didn’t miss a beat in sweeping the Astros in Houston. Going into action Friday, Milwaukee’s lead in the NL Central was still eight games.

It seems even when the Cardinals win, they can’t win.

But it was a real treat to be in attendance Wednesday night at Busch Stadium. Chris Carpenter hurled a masterpiece, tempers heated up when Nyjer Morgan offered up another dose of crazy, and the Cards won to end the season series with the Brewers at .500 (9-9). That’s something, I guess.

A bit of a side conversation about the Cardinals’ chances at the Wild Card has been going on for a few weeks, and the Atlanta Braves come to Busch Stadium with the lead in that category, too. But for the Cards to have even a chance at catching the Braves, they have to sweep them this weekend. It also helps that the Brewers are hosting the Philadelphia Phillies this weekend. If the Phils take care of business in Milwaukee and the Cards take care of business at home, the race could still be borderline interesting. Is it possible? Sure. But if winning five of six head-to-head against the Brewers barely made a dent, can we even expect a miracle at this point?

Maybe this weekend is the Cards’ one last shot at postseason play. Maybe they have one big run in them still, like the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros of years past. But even if they don’t, the team can still be fun to watch. They still have guys named Carpenter and Pujols and Holliday and Molina taking the field every day. They’re not a bad team; they never were. They just played bad baseball too many times this season. The Cardinals will still finish above .500 on the year, which I suppose is an accomplishment considering they got a total of zero innings pitched from Adam Wainwright this year and blew 23 saves as a team to this point.

Still, making excuses helps no one. Every team faces adversity; some rise above it and others fall short. And every year is different. Sometimes an 83-win team wins the World Series, and sometimes a 90-win team doesn’t even make the playoffs. The Cardinals are likely to fall somewhere in between and have a real good chance of watching October baseball from their couches at home.

But it ain’t over ’til it’s over. If you need me, I’ll be on my couch watching the game.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

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Luck, Momentum, And Credit Where It’s Due

The 2011 National League Central Division belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Sort of. I’m not saying they’ve clinched the division, or that there is absolutely no hope for the St. Louis Cardinals to win the division. But, according to sources, including the death meter, that scenario is highly unlikely at this point. My point is more that the division is theirs to lose. You know, like it was the Reds’ division to lose earlier in the season.

The Cardinals have been victimized all year, mostly by themselves. And before you read this as just another “poor Cardinals”, whiny article, let me urge you not to. Most teams in Major League Baseball make their own proverbial bed, and lie in it. When you spend the offseason acquiring players that are defensively weak in an effort to boost offense, you have to lie in the “bed of errors” during the season, for example. The Cards are no exception to this, and in large part, have made the bed they’re lying in right now.

Home plate umpire Helen Keller makes the “safe” call in the 19th inning.

I, for one, am a big believer in superstition, luck, momentum, and the “baseball gods”. As such, I recall being 95% sure that the cubs’ season was as good as over in 2003 after the whole Bartman/Alou play. Once Alex Gonzalez failed to start that double play in the 8th inning of game 6, I was 100% sure they’d lose game 7. Moral? Devastated. Just look at the way the ‘85 season ended (though, don’t tell that to the folks writing on the other side of this site), and the impact that the game 6 call had on moral, momentum, whatever you want to call it for game 7. Look at the 2011 Pirates. Jerry Meals single-handedly hurt that ballclub more so than any other individual this year.

And I think luck has played into this year’s NL Central, to a degree. It’s the most reasonably explanation for leading all of baseball in GIDP with 40,000,000, but not seeing similar numbers in the “runs scored” column. Wouldn’t that be a reasonable expectation if one premise of all the double plays is a result of having so many more runners on base?

What I don’t think is mere luck is the horrible results we’ve seen out of the Cardinals bullpen this season. All those early season meltdowns by Ryan Franklin are losses in April/May that I’m sure the Cards wish they had back now that we’re in August, heading into September. I can’t remember the last team to win the World Series that didn’t have a solid bullpen, and a lights-out closer.

I said early on this year that I didn’t think the additions of Shawn Marcum & Zack Greinke were going to amount to much, and that the Brewers didn’t scare me. I guessed that the Reds, Brewers, Cards, & cubs would’ve been the four to watch. I never would’ve picked the Pirates to do much of anything, and that just shows what a fickle game baseball can be. With the way the Brewers are playing, especially at home, it certainly seems like it’s their division to lose…but you just never know.

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Cardinals Finishing Like It’s 2008

Fasten your seatbelts, Cardinals’ fans. The Red Birds are 60 games from the finish line and are sure to be bumping fenders with anywhere from one to three division rivals as they race down the home stretch. The Cardinals find them self in a virtual three-way tie for first in the NL Central with the Reds not lagging far behind the leaders. It reminds me of the 3-horse race in the division back in 2008… only that year it was the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs vying for not only the division crown, but the wildcard as well. Unfortunately, this edition of the race reminds me of 2008 in another way – the Cardinals were historically bad holding leads late in games.

TonyAndAP

A quick history lesson for you: with 60 games to go in the 2008 season, the Cardinals were 2 games out first place in the central, and a game behind the Brewers for the top spot in the wild card race. Does anyone remember how the team finished?
- 11.5 games behind the Cubs for the division title
- 4 games behind the Brewers for the wild card spot… and for good measure…
- ½ game behind the Astros for 3rd place, a team who was 10 games behind the Cardinals with 60 games to go in the season.

In other words, yikes.

So what happened? The team carried a lead into the 8th inning that year 105 times… tops in all of baseball. But the Cardinals failed to seal the deal in 19 of those games, settling for a record of 86-76 when they could’ve been 105-57 (or perhaps more realistically, 95-67, which would’ve still be good enough to clinch a postseason berth).

And that brings us to today. As of now, the Cardinals have already lost 11 games in which they held the lead entering the 8th inning. What stings even more is that 4 times they held the lead with 2 outs in the 9th and failed to get the victory. Making just those four game wins instead of losses would have the Cardinals sitting in the drivers’ seat of the division at 58-44 and a 4 game lead on the Pirates (and just a game behind Atlanta for the wildcard as extra insurance).

Instead, the Cardinals are 54-48, tied with the Pirates, a ½ game ahead of the Brewers, and the Reds are still within shouting distance. But unlike 2008, the blame can’t solely be directed on the bullpen. This season, the defense has let the team down just as often.
The defense has already cost St. Louis three wins since the All-Star Break. Yes, really.

- July 15th in Cincinnati, a throwing error in the 7th by David Freese sets up a 2 run inning, the Cardinals lose by a run on a walk-off home run by Brandon Phillips.
- July 20th in New York, an 8th inning throwing error by Daniel Descalso sets up the tying run in an extra inning loss.
- July 24th in Pittsburgh, a 10th inning throwing set up the winning run.
More Examples:
- April 8th in San Francisco, Albert Pujols’ 12th inning error (the team’s 3rd of the game) sets up the winning run.
- April 9th in San Francisco, Colby Rasmus drops a fly ball that would’ve been the final out of the game, allowing the tying and winning runs to score.
- April 26th in Houston, a 9th inning passed ball and throwing error set up the tying and winning runs.
- May 1st in Atlanta, a dropped 9th inning pop-up (yes, I said pop-up) allows the eventual winning run to reach base and score.

As much as those losses hurt, they’re in the past. The errors and blown saves will continue to stack up just like they did in 2008. That’s unless GM John Mozeliak makes some improvements before the trade deadline. Three years ago, the Cardinals scooped up Mark DeRosa from the Indians in exchange for budding reliever, Chris Perez (ouch).

Can the Cardinals continue to hang around in the playoff race without making a big splash? I actually believe they can and will. But I also think the Brewers are the favorites to come away with the division crown if St. Louis doesn’t do something.

Maybe it’s a big trade for a reliever. Perhaps it’s a move that shores up the defense.

Or maybe, they figure out ways to finish games.

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When It Comes To Errors, Cardinals Can’t Catch…A Break

The 2011 edition of the St. Louis Cardinals is not exactly a defensively sound bunch. Ok, let’s behonest, they’re pretty awful in the field. As frustrating as it is to see throws sail into the stands and easy infield pop ups most of us could corral by the 4th grade dropped (yes, I’m talking about you, Ryan Theriot and Tyler Greene), perhaps the most frustrating part of it all is how often the Cardinals are burned by the errors they make.

It seems like the majority of errors should be harmless. Though the proverbial “4th out” is about as big a baseball sin as swinging on 3-0 with the bases loaded, most hurlers can pitch around an error without any damage done. Cincinnati, for instance, only lets an unearned run score 44% of the time it commits an error. But for some reason, the Cardinals’ seem to pay for their errors every time.

Take Sunday’s loss to the Reds for example. Cardinals leading 1-0, runner at 1st, 1 out. A high chopper to 2nd leads to a rushed flip from Skip Schumaker… a throw errant enough to elicit a safe call from the umpire. Officially ruled E-4, the Reds had runners at 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Jaime Garcia struck out the next batter with a 3rd strike in the dirt, allowing the runners to move up 90 feet. Then before he got the inning ending ground ball, he threw another wild pitch to allow the tying run to score.

An error. A wild pitch. A second wild pitch. Tie game. The game eventually went to the Reds, 3-1.

It isn’t the first time an error has cost the Cardinals critical runs. A dropped 9th inning pop up led to a loss in Atlanta in early May. Another 9th inning error cost the Red Birds a game in Houston. It was driving me crazy, so I had to look it up. The results are not pretty.

For starters, the Cardinals have committed 66 errors in 95 games, good for 3rd worst in the National League. The only worse teams defensively are Houston and Chicago, who have combined for 154 errors and 123 losses. Not the best of company to be keeping.

Of the Cardinals 66 errors, they’ve allowed 42 unearned runs to score. That’s a 63.6% clip, and averages out to nearly 1 unearned run every other game. Further translation: that’s 1-2 unearned runs every series… and with 9 series remaining against the Reds, Brewers, and Pirates, many of those runs are certain to come back to bite the Cardinals.

So what can they do about it? I don’t really think there’s an answer. It’s not like a series of trade deadline moves will be geared towards shoring up the defense when the bullpen is as rocky as it is. They might just need some better luck. The good news is: The Cardinals have made it this far, playing the way they’ve played, and they’re still in the thick of the NL Central race.

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Inside Baseball With Rob Rains: The Trade Market

If, and that still is a very big two-letter word, the Cardinals decide to try to trade Colby Rasmus — in the next two weeks, over the winter, or a year from now — there are two things which will have to happen. One, the Cardinals will have to find a team willing to trade for Rasmus, and two, that team must be willing to give the Cardinals players who they consider either equal or of greater value than Rasmus.

The Marlins' Randy Choate may be of great interest to the Cardinals

The first part should be easy. There are at least nine teams in need of a center fielder, and Rasmus, even with his inconsistencies and defensive issues, would provide an immediate upgrade at the position for all nine of those teams. It’s the second part which becomes the tricky issue for the Cardinals. If Rasmus could be convinced that it might be in his best interest long-term to become a leftfielder, the list probably expands to more than nine teams which would be interested in him.

The Cardinals’ biggest need right now appears to be for a left-handed reliever who can retire a left-handed batter at a key moment in the game. With 12 games to play against Milwaukee, and Prince Fielder, and three games left against the Reds, and Joey Votto, that one factor might be the one which decides the pennant race in the NL Central.

That player alone, however, no matter his importance to the current makeup of the Cardinals, would not be sufficient value to obtain in a trade for Rasmus. More than likely, the Cardinals need to pick up a couple of high-level prospects, probably pitchers or a shortstop, if they are going to part with their former number-one draft pick, who people forget, is still only 24 years old.

If the Cardinals want to talk now about a possible trade for Rasmus, it would seem to make the most sense for GM John Mozeliak to be calling his counterpart on these teams, which are listed in alphabetical order:

Atlanta – Through the All-Star break, the Braves had the worst batting average for centerfielders in the NL (.222) and had only four home runs and 18 RBIs combined between Jordan Schaffer and Nate McLouth. The Braves actually have two quality left-handed relief specialists in All-Star Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. They also have a promising left-handed starter, Mike Minor, in Triple A, and their 2010 No. 1 draft pick, shortstop Matt Lipka, playing in Class A.

Chicago White Sox – The White Sox owe Alex Rios a lot of money, but he is having a terrible year. Their combined centerfielders hit even worse than the Braves, .210, before the All-Star break and Rios was only slightly better with a .213 average with six homers and 21 RBIs. When John Danks comes back off the disabled list, the White Sox will have six starting pitchers. Most observers believe they will trade Edwin Jackson, who threw a shutout on Saturday in front of several scouts, including one from the Cardinals. Another starter might interest the Cardinals more, however. How about left-hander and St. Charles native Mark Buehrle, now 32, who has talked openly about one day wanting to pitch for the Cardinals before he retires. He is a free agent after the season and would have to approve any trade.

Florida – The Marlins traded for veteran Mike Cameron before the All-Star break, but he is not the team’s long-term answer. Putting Rasmus in the middle of Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton would give Florida a talented young outfield for years to come. Combined, the Marlins’ centerfielders hit .234 before the All-Star break and had just seven home runs. The Marlins have pitching to trade, both starters and relievers, and names such as Ricky Nolasco, Annabel Sanchez and Leo Nunez certainly should come up in any discussion about Rasmus.

San Diego – The Padres like Cameron Maybin, which is why they might be included to move Rasmus to left field. Everyone knows about Heath Bell and Mike Adams in their bullpen, but another name to consider is former Cardinal prospect Luke Gregerson, and they also have a young flamethrower in the minors, right-hander Brad Broch, who was just promoted from Double A to Triple A. The Padres actually think they might get more in return for Adams than Bell since he is under contract through next season.

Seattle – The Mariners’ centerfielders had the worst average in the majors before the All-Star break, .196, with five homers and only 21 RBIs. The Mariners don’t really have the pitching depth to trade off the major-league roster, but they do have two young talented shortstops in the minors, Nick Franklin and Marcus Littlewood, who might interest the Cardinals.

San Francisco – A lot was said and written before the break about the Giants’ interest in Carlos Beltran, but the asking price for the Mets’ outfielder is going to be very high and will attract interest from a lot of teams. The Giants do need a centerfielder after posting only a .248 average with 3 homers and 24 RBIs before the All-Star break. If the asking price for Beltran gets too high, maybe the Giants would look at Rasmus. They have quality left-handed relief specialist in Javier Lopez, another very good setup reliever in Sergio Romos and two young minor leaguers, a left-handed starter named Eric Suskemp and an outfielder named Francisco Peguero.

Tampa Bay – Like the Beltran talks, the buzz about Rasmus before the break seemed to center on the Rays. Their only interest in Rasmus would seem to be if they could also move B.J. Upton at the same time, either in that or another trade. There would seem to be no incentive for them to trade starter Jeremy Hellickson, although James Shield would appear to be a more likely target for the Cardinals. They also have left-handed reliever Jake McGee, who was just promoted to the majors this week from Triple A.

Toronto – The Blue Jays centerfielders had a combined .244 average before the All-Star break with only four home runs, although Rajah Davis had 24 stolen bases. Toronto has several relievers who are said to be available, but the Cardinals would likely want a higher return for Rasmus.

Washington – The Nationals primary centerfielder before the break was former Cardinal Rick Ankiel, who is struggling and without former Cardinal connection Jim Riggleman there, his playing time could start to diminish, B.J. Upton’s name has been linked to the Nationals for some time, but it isn’t known the actual level of their interest. What would or should interest the Cardinals would be if the Nationals would consider trading All-Star Tyler Clippard, a right-hander who also has been very effective against left-handed batters.

The market for left-handed specialists

With or without bringing up Rasmus, the Cardinals are expected to be exploring the market for a left-handed specialist between now and the July 31 trading deadline. These six would appear to be the best of the lot, and again, at least worthy of a phone conversation:

Jonny Venters, Atlanta – There probably is no way the Braves would consider trading the All-Star, but they do have another lefthanded reliever in Eric O’Flaherty and rookie Craig Kimbrel gets the bulk of the save opportunities. Through Saturday he had allowed only seven hits in 51 at-bats to left-handed batters, a 137 average, and had four walks and 20 strikeouts. For his two-year career, lefthanded batters have only posted a .177 average against Venters.

Randy Choate, Florida — The 35-year-old veteran is a target for several teams, including the Yankees, which figures to bring up the asking price. He has allowed only five hits in 53 at-bats to lefthanded hitters this season before Saturday, a .053 average, with one walk and 23 strikeouts. For his career, Choate has held left-handers to a .205 average.

Marc Rzepczynski, Toronto – The 25-year-old has been outstanding this season for the Blue Jays, holding left-handed batters to a .152 average (10-of-66) with six walks and 21 strikeouts. He has held opposing left-handers to a .209 average for his career.

Eric O’Flaherty, Atlanta – He is the same age as Venters, 26, but has not received the same level of attention. Quietly, however, he has been very effective, holding left-handed batters to a .182 average this season (10-of-55) with two walks and 12 strikeouts. O’Flaherty actually has more experience than Venters and for his career has held left-handed opponents to a .219 average.

Cory Luebke, San Diego – The Padres moved Luebke into their starting rotation in late June, but before then he was very effective against left-handed batters, holding them to a .152 average. For his career, opponents are hitting only .181 against the 26-year-old Luebke.

Javier Lopez, San Francisco – The 34-year-old left-hander has been a key setup man for Brian Wilson with the Giants, holding opponents to a .111 average (7-of-63) while issuing seven walks and 20 strikeouts. Left-handers have a career .220 average against Lopez.

Check out news from around Major League Baseball in this rest of this article over at RobRains.com.

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The Hot Corner: Colby Remains A Cardinal, Reds Beat Cards

It’s another episode of our favorite Video Blog, The Hot Corner.

In this episode, the big man talks about Colby remaining a Cardinal and the team’s disappointing performance in Cincinnati.

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Cardinals Battered “A-Team” May Finally Be Reunited

Albert Pujols’ is rumored to be ready to return to the Cardinals’ lineup as soon as Wednesday night, but whenever it happens (barring another injury) it will be a sight for sore eyes… and wrists… and elbows… and hands… and even appendices.

That’s because when Pujols returns to the Cardinals’ lineup, it will be the first time since April 15th in Los Angeles that the team will feature its 2011 opening day lineup… their “A-team” if you will.

  1. Theriot
  2. Rasmus
  3. Pujols
  4. Holliday
  5. Berkman
  6. Freese
  7. Molina
  8. Schumaker

If that lineup card looks a little strange to you, that’s because it is. The Cardinals have only featured it four times all season: Opening day, and April 11th, 12th, and 15th. That’s it. And yes… the Cardinals are in first place despite just about as much adversity as you can have injury-wise.

It’s truly been a remarkable run for the Cardinals thus far in the 2011 season, now 5 games beyond its midway point. The Red Birds came into the year as decided underdogs to the Reds and Brewers (and that was before the Adam Wainwright injury). I hate to keep beating a dead horse about the injuries, but what the Cardinals have been able to do this season is perhaps only slightly shy of miraculous.

Despite the injuries, the Cards have found a way to bang out 399 runs, averaging 4.64 a game: 2nd best in the National League. They’ve found diamonds in the rough in Allen Craig and Daniel Descalso. They’ve been able to give Jon Jay a ton of playing time, and he’s met the challenge head-on and flourished both at the plate and in the outfield.

Now that the lineup is (almost) healthy again, it should make Cardinals fans eager to see how the 2nd half playoff push is going to unfold. Right now, it’s a 4-horse race in the Central Division between the Cards, Reds, Brewers, and Pirates (say what?!). The Reds have experience. The Pirates have young guns who are playing their hearts out and don’t know any better. The Brewers have a ton of talent, and a desire to win now. The Red Birds are running on shear desire and heart. It’s truly anyone’s division at this point (ok, I’m going to spoil the ending for you a little, the Pirates don’t win it).

But if the Cardinals continue to fight for wins like they’ve got a hand tied behind their back, then this pennant race is already over.

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The Cardinals (And Pujols) Are Lucky The Injury Happened When It Did

There are plenty of things running through my head about the injury to Albert Pujols, so let’s get right to it.

The timing of the injury literally could not have been better, and here’s why: Let’s say Pujols misses just 4 weeks with his forearm injury. That would make him due to return to the lineup July 18th. Counting Monday’s off day, the Cardinals have SEVEN days off between now and then (let’s give a big shout-out to the 4-day All-Star Break). So while he would miss 4 weeks of time, he’d only miss 3 weeks of actual games. Another thing that makes the timing perfect is Matt Holliday’s return to the lineup. He just got off the 15-Day Disabled List on Thursday. Can you imagine what the Cardinals offense would be like if their injuries had overlapped? The Bad News: The Cardinals play the Reds 6 times over the next 4 weeks, plus the Phillies and Rays. Those games could make for some tough sledding without Albert.

 

Most baseball scribes are optimistic about the Cardinals’ chances. Most everyone seems to believe that Lance Berkman will slide over to first base, opening up right field for Jon Jay. Considering Pujols has been hitting in the .270s basically all year, I agree that the overall job of replacing his bat in the lineup is easier now than in years past, but… Albert looked to have turned the corner with his back-to-back walk off homeruns against the Cubs. In that regard, it’s tough to see him go to the DL.

What does this do for his contract status? Look, no one knows what’s been going through Albert’s head over these past six months, but I think it’s safe to say that if he did turn down a $200+ million dollar contract in February as some media outlets have reported, then he’s kicking himself now for not taking it. It’s going to be hard for him to negotiate a $200-$300 million dollar 10-year deal at the end of this season if he winds up hitting .275 with, let’s say 30 HRs and 90 RBIs. Those would all be WAY off his career averages of .329/39/116. BUT…what about negotiating a new contract right now? Pujols has long said he won’t negotiate during the season because he doesn’t want it to be a distraction, but how distracting can it be if he’s not going to play for a month? If I’m Pujols’ agent, I’m lobbying hard to fire up the negotiation NOW. It’s much easier to walk in to Bill Dewitt and John Mozeliak’s office and say:

“Look, even the greatest player of all time can have a bad couple months, but he’s back to normal now. How’d you like those consecutive walk-offs versus the rival Cubs? Pretty nice to have him on your side of the rivalry, huh? What do you say to $200 million?”

But what if Albert does miss six weeks and only plays in 130 games this year? Now the negotiations look like this:

“Yes, Mr. Dewitt, I know he’s going to be 32 come next season, and I know his average and power number plummeted like a stock-market crash, but I’m telling you it was a fluke! Albert Pujols will be worth $30 million a year in 2021, trust me…”

Yeah… not so much.

As for this season, it’ll be fun to see if the Cardinals continue to persevere. I mentioned last week that I liked the Cardinals’ chances to make the playoffs because they have a huge chip on their shoulders in the aftermath of the Adam Wainwright injury. EVERYONE counted them out. Matt Holliday has missed 25 games, David Freese I’ve lost count, and even the likes of Eduardo Sanchez, Gerald Laird, and Allen Craig are missed right now. Throw in Albert Pujols, and that’s a pretty tall order for any team to try and rally around. And of course, you’ve still got the whole “Chris Carpenter only has 1 win” thing going.

Remind me how this team is still in 1st place again? I have no idea. But I know one thing for sure: If they’re still in 1st when Pujols comes off the DL, the Brewers and Reds might as well kiss their playoff chances goodbye.

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