It just might be time to start thinking about the 2012 season. Though Monday’s loss could easily be shrugged off as “just one game,” the Cardinals have run out of time for that type of talk.

Reality check, Cardinal Nation: The Milwaukee Brewers are going to the playoffs. The Red Birds are 6 games out of 1^st place with 40 games to go. Though St. Louis plays Milwaukee 6 more times, they’d be lucky just to split vs a team they’ve beaten only 4 times out of 12 this year. Other than those games against the Cardinals, the Brewers play a team with a winning record just 4 times in its other 34 games. Forget about the division, it’s over.

The good news is… the Atlanta Braves are still within reach. At least they were before Monday night’s unfortunate turn of events. Heading into the week, the Cardinals were only 5 games out of the wildcard spot with the Pirates and Cubs awaiting them in their next 6 games. Atlanta, meanwhile, is hosting the defending World Series Champion Giants and the 1^st place Diamondbacks. This week is the Cardinals’ last real chance to close the gap and make a serious run. If the Cardinals go 5-1…and the Braves go, say… 2-5… we’re talking about a 1.5 game deficit with 5 weeks to go and a 3 game home stand with the Braves at Busch in September.

But unfortunately, the glass is now half empty.

The Cardinals just got done getting whipped by a Pittsburgh team that is 3-16 over the past three weeks. Three wins in 19 games. Yes, that is the team that just drubbed the Cardinals 6-2 at PNC Park. To add insult to injury, the Braves rallied late to overcome a 4-2 deficit against the Giants, and the Brewers won AGAIN.

In the wake of the two recent series against Milwaukee, the talk amongst Cardinals fans has been geared toward the “next two” series against the Brew Crew.

So here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedules for the Cardinals, Brewers, and Braves:

St. Louis: 40 games left, 13 vs teams with winning records, 9 vs worst 2 teams in NL

Milwaukee: 40 games left, 10 vs teams with winning records, 8 vs worst 2 teams in NL

Atlanta: 40 games left, 15 vs teams with winning records, 4 vs worst 2 teams in NL

That pretty clearly illustrates why the Brewers have the division in the bag and the Braves are still somewhat catchable. Atlanta on average will be facing the equivalent of a 62 win team every night; Milwaukee will be playing just a 58 win team every night.

If you’re wondering, the Cardinals will play the equivalent of a 60-win team from here on out… but that really doesn’t matter.

Their biggest obstacle is themselves.

Fasten your seatbelts, Cardinals’ fans. The Red Birds are 60 games from the finish line and are sure to be bumping fenders with anywhere from one to three division rivals as they race down the home stretch. The Cardinals find them self in a virtual three-way tie for first in the NL Central with the Reds not lagging far behind the leaders. It reminds me of the 3-horse race in the division back in 2008… only that year it was the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs vying for not only the division crown, but the wildcard as well. Unfortunately, this edition of the race reminds me of 2008 in another way – the Cardinals were historically bad holding leads late in games.

A quick history lesson for you: with 60 games to go in the 2008 season, the Cardinals were 2 games out first place in the central, and a game behind the Brewers for the top spot in the wild card race. Does anyone remember how the team finished?
- 11.5 games behind the Cubs for the division title
- 4 games behind the Brewers for the wild card spot… and for good measure…
- ½ game behind the Astros for 3rd place, a team who was 10 games behind the Cardinals with 60 games to go in the season.

In other words, yikes.

So what happened? The team carried a lead into the 8th inning that year 105 times… tops in all of baseball. But the Cardinals failed to seal the deal in 19 of those games, settling for a record of 86-76 when they could’ve been 105-57 (or perhaps more realistically, 95-67, which would’ve still be good enough to clinch a postseason berth).

And that brings us to today. As of now, the Cardinals have already lost 11 games in which they held the lead entering the 8th inning. What stings even more is that 4 times they held the lead with 2 outs in the 9th and failed to get the victory. Making just those four game wins instead of losses would have the Cardinals sitting in the drivers’ seat of the division at 58-44 and a 4 game lead on the Pirates (and just a game behind Atlanta for the wildcard as extra insurance).

Instead, the Cardinals are 54-48, tied with the Pirates, a ½ game ahead of the Brewers, and the Reds are still within shouting distance. But unlike 2008, the blame can’t solely be directed on the bullpen. This season, the defense has let the team down just as often.
The defense has already cost St. Louis three wins since the All-Star Break. Yes, really.

- July 15th in Cincinnati, a throwing error in the 7th by David Freese sets up a 2 run inning, the Cardinals lose by a run on a walk-off home run by Brandon Phillips.
- July 20th in New York, an 8th inning throwing error by Daniel Descalso sets up the tying run in an extra inning loss.
- July 24th in Pittsburgh, a 10th inning throwing set up the winning run.
More Examples:
- April 8th in San Francisco, Albert Pujols’ 12th inning error (the team’s 3rd of the game) sets up the winning run.
- April 9th in San Francisco, Colby Rasmus drops a fly ball that would’ve been the final out of the game, allowing the tying and winning runs to score.
- April 26th in Houston, a 9th inning passed ball and throwing error set up the tying and winning runs.
- May 1st in Atlanta, a dropped 9th inning pop-up (yes, I said pop-up) allows the eventual winning run to reach base and score.

As much as those losses hurt, they’re in the past. The errors and blown saves will continue to stack up just like they did in 2008. That’s unless GM John Mozeliak makes some improvements before the trade deadline. Three years ago, the Cardinals scooped up Mark DeRosa from the Indians in exchange for budding reliever, Chris Perez (ouch).

Can the Cardinals continue to hang around in the playoff race without making a big splash? I actually believe they can and will. But I also think the Brewers are the favorites to come away with the division crown if St. Louis doesn’t do something.

Maybe it’s a big trade for a reliever. Perhaps it’s a move that shores up the defense.

Or maybe, they figure out ways to finish games.

The 2011 edition of the St. Louis Cardinals is not exactly a defensively sound bunch. Ok, let’s behonest, they’re pretty awful in the field. As frustrating as it is to see throws sail into the stands and easy infield pop ups most of us could corral by the 4th grade dropped (yes, I’m talking about you, Ryan Theriot and Tyler Greene), perhaps the most frustrating part of it all is how often the Cardinals are burned by the errors they make.

It seems like the majority of errors should be harmless. Though the proverbial “4th out” is about as big a baseball sin as swinging on 3-0 with the bases loaded, most hurlers can pitch around an error without any damage done. Cincinnati, for instance, only lets an unearned run score 44% of the time it commits an error. But for some reason, the Cardinals’ seem to pay for their errors every time.

Take Sunday’s loss to the Reds for example. Cardinals leading 1-0, runner at 1st, 1 out. A high chopper to 2nd leads to a rushed flip from Skip Schumaker… a throw errant enough to elicit a safe call from the umpire. Officially ruled E-4, the Reds had runners at 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Jaime Garcia struck out the next batter with a 3rd strike in the dirt, allowing the runners to move up 90 feet. Then before he got the inning ending ground ball, he threw another wild pitch to allow the tying run to score.

An error. A wild pitch. A second wild pitch. Tie game. The game eventually went to the Reds, 3-1.

It isn’t the first time an error has cost the Cardinals critical runs. A dropped 9th inning pop up led to a loss in Atlanta in early May. Another 9th inning error cost the Red Birds a game in Houston. It was driving me crazy, so I had to look it up. The results are not pretty.

For starters, the Cardinals have committed 66 errors in 95 games, good for 3rd worst in the National League. The only worse teams defensively are Houston and Chicago, who have combined for 154 errors and 123 losses. Not the best of company to be keeping.

Of the Cardinals 66 errors, they’ve allowed 42 unearned runs to score. That’s a 63.6% clip, and averages out to nearly 1 unearned run every other game. Further translation: that’s 1-2 unearned runs every series… and with 9 series remaining against the Reds, Brewers, and Pirates, many of those runs are certain to come back to bite the Cardinals.

So what can they do about it? I don’t really think there’s an answer. It’s not like a series of trade deadline moves will be geared towards shoring up the defense when the bullpen is as rocky as it is. They might just need some better luck. The good news is: The Cardinals have made it this far, playing the way they’ve played, and they’re still in the thick of the NL Central race.

Albert Pujols’ is rumored to be ready to return to the Cardinals’ lineup as soon as Wednesday night, but whenever it happens (barring another injury) it will be a sight for sore eyes… and wrists… and elbows… and hands… and even appendices.

That’s because when Pujols returns to the Cardinals’ lineup, it will be the first time since April 15th in Los Angeles that the team will feature its 2011 opening day lineup… their “A-team” if you will.

1. Theriot
2. Rasmus
3. Pujols
4. Holliday
5. Berkman
6. Freese
7. Molina
8. Schumaker

If that lineup card looks a little strange to you, that’s because it is. The Cardinals have only featured it four times all season: Opening day, and April 11th, 12th, and 15th. That’s it. And yes… the Cardinals are in first place despite just about as much adversity as you can have injury-wise.

It’s truly been a remarkable run for the Cardinals thus far in the 2011 season, now 5 games beyond its midway point. The Red Birds came into the year as decided underdogs to the Reds and Brewers (and that was before the Adam Wainwright injury). I hate to keep beating a dead horse about the injuries, but what the Cardinals have been able to do this season is perhaps only slightly shy of miraculous.

Despite the injuries, the Cards have found a way to bang out 399 runs, averaging 4.64 a game: 2nd best in the National League. They’ve found diamonds in the rough in Allen Craig and Daniel Descalso. They’ve been able to give Jon Jay a ton of playing time, and he’s met the challenge head-on and flourished both at the plate and in the outfield.

Now that the lineup is (almost) healthy again, it should make Cardinals fans eager to see how the 2nd half playoff push is going to unfold. Right now, it’s a 4-horse race in the Central Division between the Cards, Reds, Brewers, and Pirates (say what?!). The Reds have experience. The Pirates have young guns who are playing their hearts out and don’t know any better. The Brewers have a ton of talent, and a desire to win now. The Red Birds are running on shear desire and heart. It’s truly anyone’s division at this point (ok, I’m going to spoil the ending for you a little, the Pirates don’t win it).

But if the Cardinals continue to fight for wins like they’ve got a hand tied behind their back, then this pennant race is already over.

Even as resilient as this Cardinals team had proven to be over the past three months, it’s hard not to wonder whether this past weekend may have been a critical turning point in the season. We all know the stories of the Cardinals’ injuries by now, but up until Friday night, the team still held a share of first place in the NL Central.

Once again, the Cardinals had rallied to overcome a deficit and had knotted the game at 4-4. With closer Fernando Salas on the mound for the top of the 9th, the Cardinals seemed to have the upper hand in the game. But with 1 out, Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista sent a long fly ball towards the Cardinals bullpen. Jon Jay tracked it all the way to the wall, leaped high in the air, but missed the ball by inches. The Blue Jays took the game, and Milwaukee took over the division lead.

Twenty-four hours later, it was the 3rd inning (and the men in blue) that did the Red Birds in. With the score tied 1-1, the Blue Jays had runners at the corners and 2 outs when catcher J.P. Arencibia hit a hot-shot to 3rd base. Daniel Descalso made a diving stop, but his throw pulled Lance Berkman off the bag. Berkman was able to make it back in time, but the 1st base umpire called Arencibia safe, allowing the runner from third to score and the inning to continue. The next batter jacked a 3-run homerun, and in the blink of an eye it was 5-1 and the Jays were on their way to a 6-3 victory. The Brewers, meanwhile, pulled 2 games ahead of the Cardinals in the division.

Sunday afternoon, the Cardinals were locked in another tight ballgame in the 6th until a chopper to first base resulted in an errant throw home and opened the flood gates for another big inning. In 48 hours, the Cardinals lost 3 winnable games; and 3 important games in the standings to the Brewers.

As difficult as a home-sweep would normally be, it’s twice as hard for the Cardinals under their current set of circumstances. If you want to sum up the first half of the Cardinals’ season with one number, one telling statistic, it might be 77. That’s the number of games reserve right fielder Jon Jay has played in, leading the team in that category.

Not a single opening day starter has missed fewer than 5 games this season. David Freese, Matt Holliday, and Skip Schumaker alone have missed a combined 102 games thus far. Three-time MVP Albert Pujols will have missed 4-6 weeks by the time he returns to the lineup, and ace Adam Wainwright will not throw a single pitch for the 2011 squad.

With this recent sweep, the Cardinals have now lost 12 of their last 15 games. While it’s nearly impossible to say that a sweep in June was the knock-out punch for the Red Birds, it has certainly knocked them down in a big way.

The Cardinals have 13 games left before the All-Star Break against the Orioles, Rays, Reds, and Diamondbacks. They’re also getting David Freese back. Mid-to-late July will bring the return of Allen Craig, Albert Pujols, and Eduardo Sanchez. The rest of the team has to get back off the mat and roll with the punches until then, or postseason chances could be lost by the time the Cardinals are back at full strength.

For starters, I cannot tell you how badly I wanted to write an article about who was a worse closer: Ryan Franklin or LeBron James. But considering this is a baseball site and we’ve beaten the Franklin (no longer an) issue to death, I exercised a bit of self-control. You’re welcome.

What I do want to talk about is the Brewers sweep of the Cardinals in Milwaukee this past weekend and why it’s actually a good thing for the Red Birds. Think back to last season when the Cardinals went into Cincinnati in mid-August, snatched first place from the Reds, then immediately tanked… winning just 11 of their next 31 ballgames. The Reds simultaneously got hot, and it was game over. Now recall what happened when the Reds paid them back with a sweep of their own last month. The Cardinals won 16 of their next 23 while the Reds won just 11 of 27. Now why is that? Well…

The 2010 Cardinals and 2011 Reds have a couple things in common: huge egos, and a sense of entitlement. After winning the NL Central back in 2009, last year’s Cardinal team went into Cincy, beat down the “little brother” of the division, took first place and assumed it would be smooth sailing into the playoffs. They took everything for granted and suddenly couldn’t buy a win. Likewise with the Reds this year, they too felt some entitlement after winning the division, then sweeping 1^st place away from the Cardinals in May. At just a game over .500 on June 13, I think the Reds are what they are: a .500 team. Cardinal fans should not have to worry about the Reds making a serious run at the division title again this September.

The Cardinals and Brewers have some things in common as well: ridiculous offenses, and a big chip on their shoulders. The Cardinals got the proverbial “punch in the mouth” last summer when the Reds took the NL Central from them. Then in spring training, everyone (and I mean everyone) counted them out of the 2011 playoff race when they lost ace, Adam Wainwright, for the season to an elbow injury. The Brewers were the forgotten child, lost in the shuffle of the Cards-Reds hype. But after a slow start, they’ve heated up FAST (24-8 record since Mother’s Day). That should make the NL Central race should be a very hard-fought, TWO-horse race deep into September.

So why is the weekend sweep and expected strong challenge from the Brewers a good thing for the Cardinals? Well, the reason is two-fold. First, there’s the natural tendency to push yourself harder when there’s someone right there with you, neck and neck, running for the finish line. An example: It’s hard to imagine Mark McGwire would’ve tacked on 8 more home runs in 3 weeks in the summer of ’98 without Sammy Sosa right there with him. The benchmark had been set at 62, McGwire’s own son said he wanted to see him get to 65…but 70? Oh no… not without Sammy pushing him by hitting 66. No chance. So with the Brewers making a serious run at the division title (a run that could very well see win totals climb into the mid to upper 90s) will keep the Cardinals focused all year, and will likely help BOTH ball clubs distance themselves from the rest of the field in the wildcard race. The second reason is more of a long-term one, but the Brewers being in the thick of the race right now means they are going to take a major hit when Prince Fielder walks at the end of the season. The Brewers’ plan from Day 1 of this season has been simple: If we have a shot, we’re going “all-in” this year, and if we don’t, we’re going to unload Prince. Right now, it’s safe to say the Brew Crew will be shoving all their chips into the middle of the table come July 31^st, baseball’s trade deadline. Not only will they fail to receive any value for Fielder when he walks at year’s end, but they’ll probably end up overpaying for outside help. Can you say depleted farm system?

There’s a couple reasons why the Brewers have only been to the playoffs once in the past 30 years while the Cardinals have made it 10 times: Market size and management savvy. One of those things will certainly not be changing for Milwaukee, while the Cardinals continue to have the edge in both categories.

Let’s play worst case scenario and say the Brewers win the NL Central. A) That means they still have Prince Fielder and will therefore lose him for nothing in free agency. Advantage: Cardinals in the long term. B) The Cardinals could still very well earn the wild card spot in their efforts to catch and surpass Milwaukee. Aside from possibly having one less home playoff game, that’s still a good thing for the Cardinals.

As for the best case scenario, the Brewers could fall off the pace and miss the playoffs, but that drop-off likely won’t happen before the trade deadline. So they could lose the division race and get no value back in exchange for Prince Fielder. Advantage: Cardinals (in the short AND long term).

So while the weekend sweep at the hands of the Brewers might still sting a like that breakup with your high school girlfriend, it’s actually a good thing in the long run. You just might not realize it yet.

Coming into the season, there were plenty of question marks surrounding the Cardinals’ ball club, not the least of which was how the Cardinals rotation would perform. With Adam Wainwright lost for the season to an elbow injury, the Red Birds would only be returning two starters who pitched the last full season with team: Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. With Carpenter, the team knew what it was getting: a perennial contender for the Cy Young Award who was coming off a 16-9 season with a 3.22 ERA. Garcia had a sensational rookie campaign, but faded towards the end of last season and really struggled during spring training.

Courtesy of Erika Lynn

As for the “other” pieces in the rotation, the Cardinals really couldn’t know what to expect. Jake Westbrook had a less than stellar switch from the AL to the NL late last season after being acquired via trade. Kyle Lohse hadn’t pitched a full season since 2008, compiling a 10-18 record over two consecutive injury-plagued campaigns in ’09 and 2010. Kyle McClellan had gotten stronger each of the past three seasons in the Cardinals bullpen, but there were no guarantees his success would convert from reliever to starter.

With a third of the season in the books, the starting rotation has turned out to be one of the Cardinals’ biggest strengths. Consider for a moment that last year’s starters combined for 63 victories, and effort that left the Cardinals 5 games short of a playoff berth. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright combined for 36 of those 63 victories… or 57%. As of June 7^th, the Cardinals have gotten 1 win out of Carpenter, and of course none out of the injured Wainwright. Yet the Cardinals still hold a comfortable lead over the Brewers for 1^st place in the NL Central.

Back in March, I projected what I thought the team would get (and what it would need) from the rotation in order to stay in contention.

As a whole, I figure the rotation at the very least would need 60 wins from the rotation. Here’s a look at how those projections are panning out:

Carpenter’s win total is the glaring discrepancy, but that’s ok thanks to the 2-5 pitchers. All four of them are on pace to exceed expectations and help the Cardinals stay in contention into September.

The common theme among Cardinals fans this season has been this: “One win from Carp, a significant fall-off in production from Pujols, and we’re still in first place. Imagine what the division standing would look like if those two got back to ‘normal.’”

This past week, the world saw the resurgence of Albert Pujols. Carpenter had been pitching great and it’s only a matter of time before he starts racking up wins.

And then, we’ll see what this team is really capable of.

The I-70 Corridor, the region of the country this site was founded upon, is about to get another visit from old man winter. Forecasters are saying it could potentially be an historic day in the show me state. Blizzard warnings are in effect for dozens of Missouri counties, and snowfall could reach two feet in some areas. Governor Jay Nixon has even declared a state of emergency, and this is all before a single snowflake landed on the heart of Cardinal Nation.

The local and regional forecasts got me thinking about a noteworthy game in Cardinals history, a game that wasn’t played in baseball’s natural element: heat.

There have been plenty of cold-weather games over the years that I could’ve picked ahead of the one I’m thinking of. Just off the top of my head, Games 1 and 2 in the 2006 World Series were much more significant. But the first cold-weather ballgame that came to my mind was the Red Birds’ home opener in 1997.

My grandpa had a habit of clipping old newspaper headlines and pinning them up on the wall in his basement. Among them was the front page of Mark McGwire’s 500^th and 70^th homeruns, the St. Louis Rams Super Bowl championship, and Secretariat’s Triple Crown. It had to be a big deal. And then there was the Cardinals’ 1997 home opener.

I remember the headline verbatim: “First Jack Frost, Then Willie McGee: A Cold Night At Busch Heats Up Fast.” The Cardinals had returned home to a deflated fan base that evening. Although opening day is always a holiday in St. Louis, the ’97 Cardinals were a disappointing 0-6 when they hosted their opener at Busch. The year before, the Cardinals won their first division title in 9 years, and came within one game of the World Series before blowing a 3-1 series lead to the Atlanta Braves in humiliating fashion, losing by a combined score of 32-1 in games five, six, and seven.

The ’97 Cardinals picked up right where the ’96 Cardinals left off, first getting swept in Montreal, then in Houston, before their homecoming at Busch. I remember watching the game as a kid. It was the year after Ozzie Smith’s retirement, and the Wizard was in the Cardinals’ TV broadcast booth for the game. He had a pre-game interview with Cardinals fan-favorite, Willie McGee, and asked about the team’s early struggles and what could be done to turn things around.

Willie let his bat answer the question about 3 hours later.

With fans bundled up as temperatures dropped into the twenties, Willie McGee came to the plate as a pinch-hitter with two outs in the bottom of the 9^th. The score was tied 1-1. The switch-hitting McGee was batting from the left side, and swung at a pitch out over the plate, lifting it high into the right field corner.

The ball had broadcast legend Jack Buck fooled. His radio call was this: “McGee lifts one into high into right…the outfielder drifts back…it’s gonna be caught.”

On the TV side, Ozzie Smith was just about to make his broadcasting debut a memorable one. His call came before play-by-play announcer Bob Carpenter could get the words out of his mouth.

“It’s gone! Yay! Woohoo!” Ozzie exclaimed.

Willie McGee pumped his first in the air one time as he circled the bases, lifting the Cardinals to 1-6 on a season they ended up finishing well behind the rival Houston Astros. In the grand scheme of things, it was just one win in a relatively forgettable season. But there was something special enough about that game, that night, to give it a place on Grandpa’s basement wall. For one night, Willie McGee put the city on his back, giving people a reason to forget the freezing temperatures and celebrate baseball.