The St. Louis Cardinals sent home one unproductive veteran player Tuesday in their latest round of cuts, and they need to do the same with another, even if it costs the team a relatively large amount of money.

The Cardinals brought Ronny Cedeno in to spring training as an insurance policy at the shortstop position since Rafael Furcal did not recover from an elbow injury he suffered last season, and the team had yet to believe Pete Kozma would be good enough to handle the position full time.

But the Cardinals realized they would not be in good hands with Cedeno, a career .247 hitter, as their primary option at shortstop. Kozma burst out of offseason to hit .429 in the first 10 days of exhibition games while Cedeno struggled to raise his batting average above .167.

Cedeno eventually picked up the pace to finish with a .290 average, and Kozma predictably didn’t hit above .400 the entire spring (he fell to .318), but Kozma showed the Cardinals he could handle the responsibilities of being the starting shortstop. That meant the Cardinals had little need for Cedeno, who had signed for one year and $1.15 million.

Daniel Descalso will now be the Cardinals only backup middle infielder, but Cedeno’s release freed up a spot on the bench for more talented hitters such as first baseman prospect Matt Adams.

But that’s only because the Cardinals will likely be hesitant to release the other unproductive veteran free agent they brought to camp: Ty Wigginton.

Wigginton has just four base hits and a .103 batting average with eight strikeouts so far this spring, yet the Cardinals probably won’t release him because they made the poor decision in the offseason to sign the 35-year-old, who hasn’t hit above .250 since 2009, to a two-year, $5 million contract.

Sure, $5 million isn’t an incredible amount of money in the modern world of baseball, but expecting Wigginton to be a productive player at all, much less two years, is almost asking for a miracle to happen.

Maybe Wigginton will run into a late-inning homerun and ends up helping the Cardinals win a game at some point this season, but they have much more talented players who will start the season in the minor leagues.

Future second baseman Kolten Wong, future outfielder Oscar Taveras and even outfielder Adron Chambers provide more potential benefits to the Cardinals that Wigginton, but they aren’t making $5 million across two years and they are young players who the Cardinals don’t want to rot on the bench.

So Wigginton will probably make the team no matter how bad he hits. Thankfully, there should still be a spot for Adams, who has hit .304 this spring and is tied for the team lead with 12 RBIs. It would be nice if the Cardinals went with Chambers, who provides speed, or outfielder Shane Robinson, who has had a great spring with a .465 batting average and 12 RBIs, but one will likely be left off the opening day roster.

The Cardinals are chiseling away at their roster for opening day. Unfortunately, they will probably leave one blemish and give Wigginton a job based on what they hope he can do, because he certainly hasn’t shown them anything this spring that makes him worthy to make a Major League Baseball roster.

Many theories have been advanced as to why the Cardinals seem to swoon late in seasons these days. I can’t help but wonder if the root cause is in how the roster has changed.

At the end of the 2006 season, the Cardinals had been in the playoffs three consecutive years, the NLCS every year, the World Series twice, and were the reigning World Champions. Since, they have not won a playoff game. The 2007 team saw a lot of injuries, and after that season two stalwarts of those mid-decade juggernauts left via trade: Jim Edmonds (to San Diego) and Scott Rolen (to exile, er, Toronto).

Looking back, St Louis had seen this before. In 1987 the Cardinals concluded their most successful run of sustained superior baseball since the El Birdos teams 20 years earlier. In six years, they had won the National League three times, the World Series once, and narrowly missed two other titles. But times were changing in St Louis, and with Gussie Busch taking a back seat to Fred Kuhlmann cost became the primary driver on roster decisions. Jack Clark, a free agent after the 1987 season, was not re-signed; he went to the Yankees. Tommy Herr, in his last year with the club, was traded to Minnesota for Tom Brunansky.

It should be emphasized the drivers for these sets of roster moves were different. Edmonds was traded because his injury history had caught up to him, and he was no longer the productive player he had been in 2005. Rolen’s significant shoulder injuries sapped him of his power; although the primary driver for his relocation north of the border can be traced to his acerbic relationship with manager Tony LaRussa. Clark and Herr left because the club did not want to pay them.

But the impact on the roster of losing these players was immediate and long-lasting. Clark was the lone power threat on the Whiteyball teams of the 1980s; St Louis never really did replace his production. Herr was a clubhouse leader. His departure was hugely unpopular in St Louis, and the team suffered for his loss. Save the 1989 season, the Cardinals didn’t finish within 10 games of first place in their division until they won the NL Central in 1996.

And today’s Cardinals? The 2008-2010 teams have been more competitive than their forebears of 20 years ago, but they have not succeeded either. Third base has been a revolving door since Rolen left. Colby Rasmus appeared the heir apparent to Edmonds in center until this July. Despite having strong personalities on the roster like Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals seem to suffer from a lack of leadership in the clubhouse – a role Scott Rolen certainly filled, and Jim Edmonds definitely did (look no further than his actions during the 2006 playoff run).

Every team, every assemblage of people working towards a common goal, needs leadership. Senior leadership can drive the problem, but only so far. The manager cannot be everywhere all the time. Peer leadership is required; and in important ways, essential. The manager can set the standard, but he is unable to lead by example. When a player is dogging it, the manager can call that guy into his office and talk to him, but it is that player’s peers that drive the message home. Men like Jim Edmonds, Jack Clark, Tommy Herr, and Scott Rolen led by example. They drove the message home.

When they left the St Louis Cardinals lost something special, and something essential. It was true 20 years ago until management and the roster rolled completely over. It is true today. The Cardinals did not replace Tommy Herr’s leadership until LaRussa brought character guys over from his Oakland A’s teams. These Cardinals have not found a replacement to Scott Rolen’s example. Until they do we will continue to see swoons in August.

Thanks to Bob Netherton for his assistance with this post.

Mike Metzger is a life-long Cardinals fan who currently blogs about the San Diego Padres.

photo by Justin Beere

As expected, the Royals made small ripples instead of splashes in free agency heading into the 2011 season, including relatively small-dollar deals with outfielders Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera. The two outfielders are strikingly similar in that they both arrived in the majors in 2005 heralded as potential stars, but have been disappointments ever since. The switch-hitting Cabrera was an everyday outfielder for the Yankees for four full seasons in spite of being a mediocre hitter at his best and a serious offensive liability at his worst. His reputation for strong defense likely helped keep him in the lineup. He was sent to the Braves prior to 2010, and struggled through a dismal season in the National League, batting a painful .255/.317/.354 (83 OPS+) with scary bad defensive metrics (-15.9 UZR) in 147 games. He was released by Atlanta a week after their season ended.

His poor performance last season meant the price tag was not high for the new free agent, and Royals GM Dayton Moore signed Cabrera to a one-year deal for $1.25 million (with $250K in potential bonuses). The Royals apparently also had to promise Cabrera the starting gig in center field; an anonymous club official told the Kansas City Star, “That’s how you convince these bounce-back guys to sign. They have other offers. So you give them a chance to play regularly. Now, what they do with it is up to them.” Of course, hopes that Cabrera will bounce “back” to effectiveness assumes that Cabrera was once a productive player.

Promising a fringe player the center field job in December was a questionable move even when the other options at the time were Mitch Maier, Gregor Blanco and Jarrod Dyson, but it became much worse a few days later when the Royals acquired Lorenzo Cain in the Zack Greinke deal. Suddenly the Royals had a somewhat exciting option for center, but they were quick to quell expectations that Cain had the inside track to be the starter. Without saying it directly, Royals brass have made it apparent they will keep their promise to Cabrera regarding regular playing time, and Cabrera has made it a little easier on the team by having a strong spring so far.

It may be tough for Royals fans to feel that Cabrera is doing anything besides blocking Cain in center field. The best case scenario may be for Cabrera to play at a decent enough level that he can be traded at some point this season. It is worth noting Cabrera will not be a free agent at the end of 2011. His lack of service time means he will be arbitration eligible, but still under club control. The main thing Cabrera still has going for him is age: 26 years worth, which means he could be entering his most productive few years as a baseballer. Moore is banking on it for both Cabrera and Francouer, telling the Star, “They haven’t peaked out. There is upside there.” For better or worse, Cabrera will be given every chance to prove Moore right this season.

Since about halfway through the 2010 season the main focus of Royals fans shifted away from Kansas City and down to the farm. It is time to recognize a youngster who has already proven his abilities on the MLB level, Billy Butler. For the second consecutive season Butler, 24, took home the Royals’ Les Milgram Position Player of the Year Award. Butler joins Hall of Famer George Brett as the only person to win the Les Milgram Award in back-to-back seasons.

Butler has been a standard of consistency since breaking into the MLB, on a team which has been anything but. In 2010, Butler led all Royals in every offense category except home runs. He had a career high 189 hits, causing a career high batting average, .318, which has steadily risen since his 2007 rookie campaign.

The greatest sign of Butler’s consistency is his well documented streak of hitting safely in 103 straight series. Butler was the Royals’ most productive player on the roster, compiling a WAR of 4.5. His 2010 WAR is the highest for a Royals’ position player since Carlos Beltran’s 7.4 WAR in 2003. Despite having fairly similar stat lines in all four of his seasons, his WAR has continued to increase significantly.

2007/ 0.2 WAR

2008/ -0.9 WAR

2009/ 1.5 WAR

“The toughest thing in baseball is the consistent aspect,” Butler said in an interview with Dick Kaegel of MLB.com. “You struggle out there to put the barrel of the bat on the ball every day and, with what the pitcher is trying to do, you try to stay ahead of him and make adjustments. You can’t control where the ball goes, but if you put the barrel on it, it’s going to find some holes.”

Many would consider 2009 his best offensive season. Considering he hit six more doubles, six more home runs, and 15 more RBIs, it’s hard to understand how Butler was worth more wins this season. One of the biggest factors is his continuing progress as a first baseman.

According to Baseball Reference, using the rTot stat (total fielding runs above or below average based on the amount of plays made) Butler improved his defense at first base from -13 in 2009 to 2 last season. The 15 RBIs he lost on the offensive side, he made up by playing essential 15 runs better at first base.

The rise in WAR is in direct correlation with Butler’s defensive prowess. Check out his single season rTot/yr, which is the same statistic projecting a player’s defensive opportunities over a 1,200 inning span.

2007/ -75

2008/ -22

2009/ -13

2010/ 2

“I’ve got nothing against Kila Ka’aihue, I’ve played with him for a lot of years and I’ve gotten along with him. He’s proved a lot in the Minor Leagues and he deserves a shot,” Butler said. “But I feel I’ve only improved my chances and gotten better every single day at first base and will continue to get better. This was only my second full season at first base; I didn’t do it that much in the Minors because I played third and the outfield. I’m only 24 and I’ve got better years ahead of me, even defensively. I want to play first base every day, that’s the bottom line.”

Despite the improvements in nearly every facet of Butler’s game the two biggest knocks on him are the amount of double plays he hits into and his lack of power.

In 2010, Butler rolled into the pitcher’s best friend 32 times. Statistically, Butler cost the Royals almost six runs over the season solely because of his double plays, more than any other player in the league.

Butler’s high contact rate, along with a line-drive/ground ball swing, and his agonizingly slow feet make him the perfect candidate. Matt Klaassen, of Fangraphs, discusses Butler’s double play problems here, and suggests if the problem continues the best spot for Butler may be in the leadoff spot.

Many other fans were disappointed to see Butler only go deep 15 times last year. Considering his position and frame many feel his high contact rate isn’t enough, to become a superstar he must find some power.

Consider this; the only Royals since 2004 to eclipse Butler’s 21 dingers (2009), at the age of 23, were Miguel Olivo (23) and Mike Sweeney (22). Butler’s also knocked 96 doubles over the last two seasons, more than any other Royal in history during a two year span. Butler is continuing to learn how to drive the ball to all fields, take a quick look at his spray chart of homers since 2008, courtesy of Hit Tracker.

2008

2009

2010

Butler may not hit 30 home runs a year, but it doesn’t take a top flight scout to recognize how his ability to drive the ball to all over the park has progressed.

When Butler hit his career high home run total, 21; he also struck out a career high 103 times. In 2010, Butler struck out only 78 times while taking 11 more walks, good enough for a 12 point boost in his OBP.

It’s worthwhile to note the best offensive player in Royals’ history, George Brett, also played an infield corner and hit over 25 homers only twice in his career, at ages 30 and 32. The start both had as prospects are actually very similar, with Brett hitting for a higher average and Butler showing more power.

1974-77

George Brett (21-24) – .311/.357/.458, 122 2B, 45 3B, 42 HR, 291 RBI, 171 BB, 147 SO, 2,300 AB

2007-10

Billy Butler (21-24) – .299/.359/.457, 141 2B, 3 3B, 55 HR, 278 RBI, 187 BB, 293 SO, 1,975 AB

The biggest difference between these two performances, Brett was a two-time All-Star and finished in the top 15 of MVP voting three times. A lot of those accolades can be attributed to Brett playing a more vital position, while also playing on a competitive squad.

It will be interesting to see how Butler’s numbers progress as he grows into his prime. Some speculate he will ‘grow’ into his power. But, it if means him hacking for the fences, raising his fly ball and strikeout totals like in ’09, I’d rather him stick to his natural line drive stroke.

As more of the hitting prospects find their way to the big leagues, Butler’s numbers should get a boost from having more capable hitters to protect him in the lineup. Any team with Yuniesky Betancourt as their second most productive offensive player is in trouble. The 2011 season will offer Butler a platoon between first base and DH with the presence of Ka’aihue.

Eric Hosmer’s debut will most likely cause a more permanent shift to DH for Butler. A move like this could make a significant change in his offensive production as well. Having to solely focus on the stick for a professional hitter like Butler could prove beneficial.

One of the best examples of this reminds me of another right handed hitter, with slow feet who was criticized for his lack of power and defense, Mariner legend Edgar Martinez.

Martinez, a third baseman, was celebrated for his amazing contact skills and is now widely considered as one of the best DHs of all-time. Martinez and Butler took very different paths to the big leagues, considering Martinez didn’t play his first full season until he was 27, but they still offer many comparisons. Check out Martinez’s first three full big league seasons compared to Butler’s last three seasons.

1990-92

Martinez (27-29) – .318/.402/.477, 108 2B, 6 3B, 43 HR, 174 RBI, 212 BB, 195 SO, 1,559 AB

2008-10

Butler (22-24) – .300/.362/.459, 118 2B, 1 3B, 47 HR, 226 RBI, 160 BB, 238 SO, 1,646 AB

I don’t think Butler will ever hit for as high of an average Martinez did mainly because of the differences between their strikeout and walk rates. Besides those factors, Butler’s numbers are almost a dead ringer for Martinez’s.

Martinez didn’t hit more than 18 home runs in a season until he was 32, his eighth season in the MLB. After his power break through, Martinez posted six seasons of 23+ HR and 100+ RBI. The biggest changes in Martinez’s game can be attributed to becoming primarily a DH, and a boost of batting talent around him.

Bill James has already produced his 2011 projections, putting Billy Butler with numbers like these:

2010 – .318/.388/.469, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 77 R

2011 – .307/.377/.476, 18 HR, 89 RBI, 78 R

James’ projections are fairly credible, although creating a projected stat line for a consistent hitter like Butler shouldn’t be rocket science. Just look at his four season stat lines and they are nearly identical.

Whether or not Butler reaches the level of Brett or Martinez, he is the lone standout hitter on a team searching for a turnaround. Butler’s presence in the middle of the lineup is one of the biggest reasons the Royals finished second in the MLB in batting average. It’s hard to believe a team with the second highest batting average can only manage 67 wins.

Butler’s performance and steady improvement offer a perfect example for the next crop of prospects coming through Kansas City. Butler is up for arbitration this winter and is in store for a well deserved raise from the league minimum.

GM Dayton Moore needs to recognize if the Royals are going to make an extended run at the playoffs, Butler needs to be at the center. He has proved his worth and his dedication to a team normally playing for nothing. More important than anything else, unlike Zack Greinke, Butler has been open about wanting to be a major part in the future of the organization.

“I don’t want to go anywhere else.”