The Cardinals finished up a 4-2 home stand Wednesday, and travel to South Florida for a 3-game set with the Marlins. The Cardinals split two with Florida in May.

Current Snapshot:

St Louis: 60-48, 2nd place NL Central, 0.5 games behind Cincinnati. Am I the only one happy to see Houston leave town? Didn’t think so. After allowing Pittsburgh 2 runs in 3 games, they surrendered 31 runs to Houston. The team added Jake Westbrook, sent Ryan Ludwick to San Diego, lost David Freese for the year, and ceded right field to Jon Jay. It’s been an exhausting week.

Florida: 53-54, 4th place NL East, 8 games behind Atlanta. The Marlins boast some of the best young players in the league with Josh Johnson, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Michael Stanton on the roster. That they sit a game under .500 is somewhat of a surprise. Florida is 5-5 over their last ten games, and followed taking two of three from San Diego in San Diego by getting swept at home by the Phillies.

Pitching Matchups

6 August: Jeff Suppan (1-4, 5.15 xFIP) vs Rickey Nolasco (12-7, 3.64 xFIP). Suppan got his first win of the season against Pittsburgh last Saturday, so he’s on a major roll right now. Jeff has started 8 career games in Florida, never losing as a Cardinal, never winning as a Brewer. His last win down there was 5 may 06. He has never faced Rickey Nolasco.

Dan Uggla (.267/.429/.600, 1 HR) and Mike Lamb (.158/.200/.211) are the only Marlins with more than 20 career PA’s against him (Hanley Ramirez has 19). I doubt Lamb will suit up against Suppan Friday.

Rickey Nolasco is a right-handed pitcher currently tied for fourth in the NL in wins and tenth in xFIP. By most advanced metrics this is his best season in the majors. Nolasco features a fastball averaging 91 MPH, which he throws about half the time. He complements that with a split-finger (85MPH, 12%), slider (85, 23%) and curveball (75, 16%). According to Fangraphs, his off-speed pitches are plus pitches.

Nolasco has appeared in two games vs St Louis in Miami (one start). He’s not beaten the Cardinals at home; in fact, he’s never beaten the Cardinals, and the Marlins have only won one of the 5 games he’s appeared in (4 starts). His lone home start was almost exactly two years ago.

No Cardinal has 20 plate appearances against Nolasco. Matt Holliday and Felipe Lopez have hit two home runs off him. Holliday, in fact, is 7 for 11 all-time against Nolasco.

7 August: Adam Wainwright (15-6, 3.22 xFIP) vs Josh Johnson (10-4, 3.10 xFIP). Two of the best young pitchers in baseball, and two contenders for the 2010 NL Cy Young award, square off on Saturday. If this is not the Fox Game of the Week something is seriously wrong. What? Boston is playing the Yankees this weekend too? So much for that.

Wainwright was masterful in his 7 innings against Pittsburgh on Sunday and looks to keep that going. He’s started one game in Florida against the Marlins, winning last June 6th. In his career he’s 4-1 against Florida, and he won on 20 May this year 4-2. Only Hanley Ramirez has 20 PA versus Adam, and Wainwright has completely handcuffed him (.167/.260/.167). Uggla has the only HR on the roster off Wainwright, but has been similarly frustrated (.125/.167/.313).

The right-handed Johnson was roughed up in San Diego on Sunday, allowing a season high 5 earned runs, but the Padres are the only team to beat him since May (5-2 over that span). Johnson throws a fastball, slider, and changeup; his fastball averages 95 MPH and he throws it 60% of the time. All three pitches are above average, which makes sense given his success this season. Johnson has started 3 career games against St Louis, one in Miami. He’s 1-1, with a no decision in the home start although the Marlins won the game (9 June 09). Cardinals on the roster have hit .321/.346/.436 career off Johnson (82 PA). Albert Pujols has hit the only HR among the current Redbirds off Johnson.

He and Wainwright have hooked up once before, on 7 Sept 08. Wainwright won the game 3-1.

8 August: Jake Westbrook (0-0, 2.01 xFIP) vs Sean West (0-1, 4.84 xFIP). Westbrook made his first start as a Cardinal Monday against Houston, and would have gotten the win if the bullpen could have held the lead. In a relative oddity of the Interleague Era, Jake has never faced Florida. Of the current Marlins only Mike Lamb (1 for 7, walk) and Donnie Murphy (1 for 2) have any at bats against him.

Westbrook has five pitches but hardly ever throws his curveball. His fastball averages 92 MPH, his slider 80, his change-up 79, and his cutter 86. Of those his best pitch appears to be his slider, which makes sense given his ground ball/fly ball ratio (1.87 in 2010). He strikes out a tick over 5 hitters a game, making him a pitch-to-contact guy that Dave Duncan loves.

Sean West was recalled to the Marlins on 3 August, and lost his first start of the 2010 season Tuesday to Philadelphia. West started 20 games a year ago for Florida, posting an 8-6 record. He has not faced the Cardinals in South Florida, but he has beaten the Cardinals in his career, 2-1 on 15 September of last year. West features a fastball/slider/changeup and is a bit of a fly ball pitcher (0.70 GB/FB ratio). His fastball averages about 91 MPH.

No Cardinal has more than 3 PA’s against him, so it’s not really worth discussing those numbers.

Prognosis. The Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, while the Marlins have been exactly average at home. Florida will be favored on Friday, St Louis on Sunday. Saturday’s game will be epic and most likely become a battle of bullpens. St Louis has the ability to take 2 of these 3 games but it won’t be easy. Cincinnati is in Chicago this weekend, so it may take 2 of 3 to keep pace with the Reds.

UPDATE: The Cardinals shifted their rotation for this weekend. Adam Wainwright pitched Friday night, Jake Westrbook will pitch Saturday and Jeff Suppan shifts to Sunday.

St Louis will host Pittsburgh this weekend for the first time in 2010. Pittsburgh leads the all time series with the Cardinals, 1087-1035, and that’s despite the rivalry being a bit one-sided since the start of the 1992 season (STL leads 154-112).

Current Snapshot

St Louis – 55-46, 2nd place NL Central, half-game back of Cincinnati. Following their 8-game winning streak the Cardinals returned to their struggles on the road, dropping 2 of 3 in Chicago, then 2 of 3 in New York. Both their wins on that road swing came in extra innings after the team grabbed an early lead. The one man they cannot afford to miss is nursing nagging side and leg injuries following the set in New York.

Pittsburgh – 35-64, worst record in NL, 20 games behind Cincinnati. Pittsburgh remains in a perpetual state of rebuild, although there is a core of good players now present at the major league level (Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge). They still have very little reliable starting pitching and are at least two years away from contending seriously.

Pitching Matchups

30 July – Jeff Karstens (2-6, 4.64 xFIP) vs Carpenter (11-3, 3.71 xFIP). Karstens has lost his last 4 decisions, and the Pirates have lost 5 of the last 6 games he’s started. I call Karstens a classic junkballer – 88 MPH fastball, 80 MPH slider and change, 73 MPH curveball. He’s not going to overpower the hitters – he’s only struck out 52 in 89.2 innings this season – meaning he beats them with deception and location. His curve ball grades out as his best pitch, and he throws it 15% of the time.

Karstens has never faced the Cardinals in St Louis. He has started twice in Pittsburgh against them and sports a 1-1 mark after beating the Cardinals on May 8. No Cardinal hitter has stepped in the batter’s box more than six times when Karstens was on the mound. Colby Rasmus has the most success (2-6, HR).

Carpenter gave up 3 ER to Chicago in 7 innings, and he continues to pitch very well coming out of the All-Star Break. He has also dominated the Pirates in his career; the Cardinals have lost only one game he started against Pittsburgh (6/29/04; the Cards were shut out 3-0). He has never lost to Pittsburgh at home. He pitched in Pittsburgh on May 7 and allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings in a no-decision the Cardinals won 4-3. As you might imagine, most Pirate hitters have not had much success against him. Ryan Doumit has had the most success (2 HR), but he’s on the disabled list. Milledge is 3 for 7 lifetime against Carp, and that is wildly successful as compared to his teammates.

31 July – TBD vs Suppan (0-4, 5.65 xFIP). This would be Brad Lincoln’s spot, but he might not get the start Saturday. Jeff Suppan, however, will. He pitched last Friday against Chicago and with the wind blowing out, he surrendered 3 HR in 6 innings and lost 5-0. Most observers thought Dave Duncan might be able to resuscitate Suppan’s career, but so far there is no evidence Duncan has made much difference. Based purely on xFIP, one could say Suppan is worse now than he was with Milwaukee (5.05 xFIP vs 5.65 today).

Like Carpenter, Suppan has also had a lot of success against Pittsburgh. He has not lost to the Bucs since 11 Aug 2006, covering 10 starts. In fact, his team is 9-1 in those 10 starts. Of course, those 10 starts were all with the Brewers, and his last loss was the last time he faced Pittsburgh as a Cardinal. I do not think we can draw any conclusions from what happened 4 years ago, but it is at least an interesting factoid. He did face them in relief this year while still with Milwaukee.

Ryan Church might get a start Saturday, as he’s 3 for 4 against Suppan, but lots of Pirates have good numbers against Suppan. Garrett Jones has hit 2 HR off Jeff in 4 career at-bats.

1 August – Zach Duke (5-9, 4.27 xFIP) vs Wainwright (14-6, 3.23 xFIP). Duke sports a 5.09 ERA, which means he’s a much better pitcher than Earned Run Average would lead one to believe. Duke is another guy who does not throw very hard – 87 MPH fastball, 81 MPH change, 79 MPH slider, 72 MPH curve. His change-up seems to be his best pitch according to Fangraphs, but he only throws it 14% of the time.

Duke has only beaten the Cardinals once in 6 starts in St Louis (8 Apr 09). He’s 4-5 career vs the Redbirds. He last pitched against them in the May 7 game we mentioned above. In that game he worked 6.1, was charged with 3 runs (all unearned), and did not figure in the decision. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday have feasted on his pitches (3 HR, 1.227 OPS for Pujols, and 1 HR, 1.374 OPS for Holliday). Rasmus, Skip Schumaker, Brendan Ryan, and Felipe Lopez (combined 7 for 54) wish the sluggers would share their secret.

Wainwright just did not have it Tuesday night in New York; the 6 earned runs he allowed were the most surrendered by him since May 2009. Coming back to St Louis may be the tonic he needs, as he has been unbeatable at home (10-0, 0.873 WHIP, 71K in 81.1 innings). Adam is 6-2 lifetime against Pittsburgh but has struggled a bit when he faces them, allowing over 1.5 baserunners an inning. He has already beaten Pittsburgh this season (on May 9 in Pittsburgh). McCutchen and Jones (4 for 8, 5 for 9 respectively) have had the most success against him. No other Pirate is slugging over .450 when Wainwright is delivering the pitches.

Prognosis. St Louis is coming off a 3-3 road trip, and the Pirates just took 2 of 3 against the Rockies. The Cardinals have been tremendous at home while Pittsburgh has been awful on the road despite just taking the Colorado series. St Louis should win 2 of these 3 games. This series also represents Jeff Suppan’s best chance to date to win his first game. If Suppan can throw well Saturday the Cardinals can sweep this series. With Cincinnati hosting Atlanta this weekend, they might have to sweep to keep pace.

On the heels of a hot streak, the Cardinals rolled into Chicago to the tune of one of baseball’s most celebrated rivalries. The trip to the Windy City did not go the way the Cardinals had hoped, as they dropped the opening two and had to salvage Sunday night in front of the ESPN national audience to avoid the sweep. Even that took extra innings.

The bi-polar Cardinals will take their show further East on the road as they slide into another city that is inhabited by an old rival. The team that has become known as “Pond Scum” around the Gateway City will play host to the Redbirds this week for a three game set.

Current Snapshot

St. Louis: 55-44, First Place, NL Central, 1 Game ahead of Cincinnati. The Cards have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and have been showing signs of life since the All Star break. At the same time, they floundered in Chicago to the extent of frustration against a team that they should perform better against if they are in fact the “team to beat” in this division.

New York: 50-49, Third Place, NL East, 7.5 Games back of division leader Atlanta. The Mets are 2-8 over their last 10 games and seem to be on the verge of losing their season. The manager is rumored to be on the hot seat and the players have not performed to the level necessary, causing the team to show up in trade rumors with our other I-70 team, the Royals.

Pitching Matchup

Tuesday, July 27, 6:10 P.M. CST: Adam Wainwright (14-5, 1.94 ERA) vs Jon Niese (6-4, 3.54 ERA)
Wainwright is doing everything in his power to ensure that he does not get left in the dark when it comes to the Cy Young award this season. He has been lights out lately, though many of his starts in the summer heat of St. Louis have been shortened to six innings or so. Wainwright has not surrendered an earned run in his last three starts and is one of the most prolific pitchers in his home ballpark. Jason Bay will look to find his stroke against a pitcher that he has posted a .353 average against in his career. Carlos Beltran, on the other hand, may look to seek revenge for being on the receiving end of one of the most famous pitches in St. Louis Cardinal history.

Niese does not have much of a history against the Redbirds, but what history he has, he would like to forget. In a short outing last season, he sustained an injury to his leg that required surgery to repair. He has been on of New York’s occasional bright spots this season, though not as sharp in his last start. Still, Niese matches up well for the Mets and should give them an opportunity to overcome the Cardinals’ ace and possibly pull out a win.

Wednesday, July 28, 6:10 P.M. CST: Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21 ERA) vs Mike Pelfrey (10-5, 4.00 ERA)
There may not be a better story than Jaime Garcia’s this season for the Cardinals. A pitcher that was overshadowed by other arms going into Spring Training, Jaime has claimed the third spot in the rotation and been dominant at times. At other times, he has been hittable, but he seems to work his way into and out of trouble with some grit.

Mike Pelfrey has been as up and down as the team he plays for this season. While his overall line does not look bad, his last few games have just about wrecked it. While his most recent start suggests that he may be back on track, he has suffered through some horrible pitching, giving up more base runners than innings pitched as of late. Matt Holliday is hitting 375 against Pelfrey in his career, but Randy Winn can only boast a .100 average despite facing him more times than any other St. Louis hitter.

Thursday, July 29, 11:10 A.M. CST: Blake Hawksworth (4-6, 5.23 ERA) vs Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79 ERA)
The Cardinals have survived through most of the season based on their pitching. Blake Hawksworth is the example of both the things that are going right for the team and the reason why the team desperately needs another arm. While the reliever-turned-starter has given the Cardinals serviceable outings and impressed fans beyond his ability this season, he has not been the dominant part of the rotation that the Cardinals need him to be. His last start did not last five innings and, thanks in large part to the bullpen, he did not leave the team in a position to win the game. He has very little experience against this Mets team and the Cardinals will hope that he can keep them in contention against one of New York’s best.

Johan Santana has not been his usual, dominant self in 2010, but you could not tell that over his last three starts. Posting an ERA under one (0.82) while striking out 14 batters over the course of 22 innings, Santana may be finding the proverbial “groove”. Santana always pitches the Cardinals tough, but the resident superstar, Albert Pujols, may be pretty happy to see him. Albert holds a .500 average and a pair of solo home runs against the Mets’ lefty. The middle infield for the Cardinals, however, may not find much solace in the assignment. Skip Schumaker, Felipe Lopez, Brendan Ryan and Aaron Miles have combined for one solitary hit against Santana in 25 at bats.

Prognosis
The Cardinals need to win this series to show that they are closer related to the team that showed up after the All Star Break than the team that went into it. With Wainwright and Garcia on the mound for the first two, they have that opportunity. The team needs to settle in and perform like it is capable of, or the Mets could find themselves sneaking a win or two out of a very tough series.

In the midst of their hottest streak this season, St Louis charges into Chicago to battle the Cubs.

Current Snapshot:

St Louis: 54-42, First Place NL Central, 1.5 games ahead of Cincinnati. The Cardinals had their season best 8-game winning streak snapped in extra innings on Thursday by Philadelphia. St Louis took 2 of 3 from the Cubs in Chicago back in May.

Chicago: 43-53, Third place NL Central, 11 games back. They have split their last 10 games (5-5). Since last meeting the Cardinals, Aramis Ramirez found his stroke, Carlos Zambrano melted down (again) and was held accountable for once, and Lou Piniella announced his retirement at the end of the season.

Pitching Matchups:

23 July: Jeff Suppan (0-3, 5.45 xFIP) vs Randy Wells (4-7, 3.72 xFIP). These two have never faced each other. Suppan pitched very well in his last outing against Los Angeles and threw six full innings for the first time this season. He’s already pitched at Wrigley this season, a game Milwaukee eventually won. Suppan is 4-4 career in Chicago, with his last win coming in 2008. Jeff has a lot of history against the guys in Chicago’s line-up; of the players who have faced Suppan 20 or more times (Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Theriot, Alfonso Soriano, Ramirez, Derrek Lee), only Theriot hasn’t homered, and only Soriano and Ramirez are hitting under .300. If the wind is blowing out, look out. Lee has absolutely killed Suppan in his career (6 HR; .429/.529/.875 in 68 plate appearances).

Wells has only faced the Cardinals three times, all at Wrigley, and his last start is one he likely wants to forget. Wells features a fastball about half the time, and mixes a slider or changeup in the other half. His slider is his best pitch, and one of the better sliders in the league. Given the three appearances, Cardinal hitting statistics against him are the epitome of small sample size; no one has more than seven plate appearances. They do lead to some interesting data, though – Wells has never retired Matt Holliday (1 for 1) or Colby Rasmus (2 for 2 with 2 walks). Only Yadier Molina has an extra base hit off him, and Randy Winn has never reached base (0 for 3).

24 July: Blake Hawksworth (4-5, 4.49 xFIP) vs Tom Gorzelanny (5-5, 4.03 xFIP). No one foresaw this as a mid-July matchup back in April, but here we are. Hawksworth will make his seventh career start and none of the previous six were against Chicago. He’s thrown 3 2/3 innings total against the Small Bears in his career, most recently on 29 May in Adam Ottavino’s first career start. Blake throws his fastball about 60% off the time, mixing in a changeup, curveball, and cutter for the rest. According to Fangraphs his cutter is his best pitch, but he only throws it 5% of the time. One wonders if some cutters were mis-identified as fastballs by Pitch f/x. No Cub has faced him more than twice. Hawksworth benefited from St Louis’ power surge on Monday night as he didn’t pitch well but came away with the win. That said, he has pitched better his last four games (ERA under 4.00), but his BABIP has been high (.333), so perhaps he is pitching even better than that.

Gorzelanny will make his first career start as a Cub against the Cardinals. He did make six starts opposing the St Louis Nine while a Pirate, the last time in June 2008, which also was the last time he pitched to the Redbirds. Pittsburgh was 2-4 in those six games (Gorzelanny went 1-3). He has pitched pretty well in those appearances; 16 ER in 37 2/3 innings (3.82 ERA). Fastball-slider-changeup are his weapons of choice, with the fastball and changeup being his best pitches.

Only Aaron Miles and Albert Pujols have more than 15 plate appearances against Gorzelanny. Miles is slashing a robust .467/.529/.533, so expect to see him in the lineup on Saturday. AP has a .979 career OPS against Gorzelanny.

25 July: Chris Carpenter (11-3, 3.73 xFIP) vs Ryan Dempster (8-7, xFIP 3.86). ESPN’s Sunday Night game promises to be a good one. Dempster has pitched better this season than his record indicates, and Carpenter has been lights out (16 IP, 10 K, 1.13 ERA, 2-0) in both starts since the All-Star break. Carpenter has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2004, and his record in Chicago is no exception (7-2, 3.66 ERA career). Chris has already beaten the Cubs at Wrigley this season. Oddly only a trio of current Cubs has more than 20 plate appearances against him (Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano). Soriano leads the way (.333/.351/.528) with 2 HR. Lee and Ramirez have also homered off him in their careers.

Dempster faced the Cardinals on 30 May and got smacked around, surrendering 6 in 6 2/3 innings pitched of a game the Cubs eventually lost 9-1. He’s made three other starts versus St Louis at Wrigley and had not lost before this year. Dempster throws a fastball and slider, with the occasional split finger as well for flavor. His slider is also excellent, though it is not quite as good as Wells.

Expect AP to chomp at the bit for this game to start. Pujols has tortured Dempster during his career (4 HR; .310/.412/.643). Expect Randy Winn to have something else to do while Ryan’s on the mound (2-22, 3 walks career). Skip Schumaker (.400 average) and Holliday (1.000 OPS) have enjoyed success as well.

Prognosis. No matter where these teams sit in the standings, this series is taut and well played. The Cardinals are hot; the Cubs are not, but it will not matter come first pitch Friday. Based on the matchups, I would expect Chicago to win Friday, St Louis Sunday, and Saturday’s game to be a toss-up.