Beginning on Memorial Day, the St. Louis Cardinals-Kansas City Royals rivalry will be rekindled in the 2013 season with a four-game home-and-home series. The first two games of the series will be played in Kansas City on Monday and Tuesdaywhile the final two games of the series will be played down the road in St. Louis. This unique four-game set is similar to the Battle of the Beltway, which will feature the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals playing a home-and-home.

Entering the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals had the best record in Major League Baseball and led the N.L. Central. Their pitching staff, which has allowed the fewest runs in the majors, and a potent offense, which has scored the third most runs in the National League, primarily drives this. One of the most pleasant surprises for the Cards has been the performance of Shelby Miller who boasts a 5-3 record with a 1.74 ERA. Entering this year, Miller had only started one game and pitched thirteen career innings, yet has been able to vex opposing hitters so far in 2013.

In the other dugout, the Kansas City Royals will look to continue on their surprising start and shorten the gap in the A.L. Central behind the division-leading Cleveland Indians. Despite dropping four of the last five series, the Royals remain in third place in the division. For the most part the team has struggled to score runs, but has been led by a strong pitching staff. Alex Gordon has been one of the sole bright spots on offense and leads the team in average, home runs, RBI’s, and runs. Pitchers Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and James Shields headline a staff, which has allowed the second-fewest runs in the American League. Despite boasting a 2-5 record, Shields has a minuscule .96 WHIP to go along with a 2.47 ERA on the year and has been primarily hindered by a lack of run support.

 The first two games of the series in Kansas City currently carry an average price well above the average price for Royals tickets this year ($54). Monday’s Memorial Day afternoon start has tickets going for an average of $80 with a get-in price of $16. This $80 average is 48% above the home season average. Game two’s tickets are currently being sold at an average of $70 with the least expensive tickets costing $15. The prices for these two games are 14% less than the games played in Kansas City between these two teams last year, but are 34% more expensive than 2010, and 38% more expensive than in 2011.

The final two games of the series in St. Louis are going for $42 and $45 respectively. This season, the average price for Cardinals tickets is $68 and the prices for these two games between the teams will be 38% and 34% below that average. Tickets are still readily available for the two games and can be acquired for a low price of $6 for Wednesday and $8 for Thursday. These prices reflect a continued downward trend for tickets in St. Louis between the Cardinals and Royals as the prices are 24% less expensive than 2011 and 16% less expensive from just one year ago.

The battle for the Midwest will feature two teams heading in two different directions. The Cardinals will be seeking to stretch out their divisional lead and improve upon the best record in Major League Baseball while the Royals will be trying to turn around a recent slide which put a damper upon one of the most surprising starts in the majors.

The baseball winter meetings have concluded with a number of moves that significantly altered the landscape of baseball. While the Royals did not strike any deals, there are a few trades that would be interesting to see them explore in the coming months in an effort to help get them to the next level.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

Proposed Trade #1: Royals trade Billy Butler and Jeremy Jeffress to the Rays for Jeff Niemann, Brandon Guyer, and Tim Beckham.

The Rays are looking for a right-handed bat to play at DH and first base, and Butler would be a perfect fit for them. He is young and talented, yet has a reasonable contract. Jeffress has the reputation of having a million dollar arm and a 10 cent head. Any sting from his departure could be absorbed by the deep Royal bullpen.

The right-handed Niemann has won at least 11 games in each of the past three seasons, and would provide sorely needed stability in the Royals rotation. Brandon Guyer, an outfielder, has a .297 career average in the minors, but has not yet been given an opportunity to play regularly in the majors. Beckham, the first overall selection in the 2008 draft started out his career in disappointing fashion, but has been building momentum the past couple of seasons, and could fit in nicely at shortstop for the Royals.

There could be concern that this trade would leave the Royals lineup too lefty-oriented, but the Red Sox had a potent offense this past year with six or more left-handed hitters regularly starting. Giving up a great bat like Butler would be a major loss, but a trade centered on a player of his caliber would bring a good return and could help restock their starting rotation.

Proposed Trade #2: Royals trade Greg Holland to the Blue Jays for Travis Snider.

The Blue Jays have been rumored to be hot after Holland, and improving their middle relief corps. A talented pitcher like Holland would be difficult to give up, but might be worth it if they could pry Snider away in the deal. Snider has had several unimpressive trials with Toronto, but will still be just 24 in 2012 and has a ton of talent. A change of scenery could be just what he needs.

The middle of the Royals’ infield could use some more punch after this past season, when Chris Getz and Alcides Escobar, their starting second baseman and shortstop combined for 4 home runs and 72 RBI in 1,027 at bats. Lowrie could be the answer. His game is all about versatility; from his ability to play any position in the infield, to his switch hitting. Although he has struggled with injuries in the past, he would be worth taking a chance, and could likely be pried away for Jeffress, who would be coveted by Boston in their effort to restock their bullpen.

Because of their need to operate with a set budget, the Royals have a slimmer margin of error when it comes to assembling their roster. However, they also have the assets to afford to entice a trading partner and take a gamble or two. Spring training is still two months away, so there is plenty of time for the Royals to evaluate and explore every angle, and determine if it is in their best interest to stand pat, or jump into the trade market.

The fine folks at the Northwest Arkansas Naturals provide us with a brief rundown of the Royals farm system every week. The details are listed below:

Triple-A

The Omaha Storm Chasers (Pacific Coast League) rolled through another solid week, posting a 4-2 record since last week’s report. With their combination of a potent offense and strong pitching, the Storm Chasers have put themselves in prime position for a playoff spot. With just 19 games remaining in the season, the 69-55 Storm Chasers are at least five games clear of every other team in the PCL’s American Northern Division.

Who’s Hot

Before last week, speedy outfielder Jarrod Dyson had hit just two home runs in over five professional seasons. But last week, Dyson accomplished the improbable, homering in back-to-back games against the Salt Lake Bees. Dyson had four multi-hit games last week and is now hitting .294 with 35 stolen bases in 37 attempts. Several recently promoted relievers are excelling for the Storm Chasers as well. Kelvin Herrera has allowed just one run and struck out 13 batters in 9 1/3 innings with Omaha, while Willy Lebron (1.80 ERA in 3 games) and Zach Miner (1.80 ERA in 7 games) have been dominant as well.

Who’s Not

Though he has still put together an outstanding season in the PCL, Lorenzo Cain had a bit of a quiet week, going 5-for-22 at the plate with five strikeouts in six games. The recently acquired Yamaico Navarro is off to a slow start in his new organization, as the shortstop is batting .205 with two extra-base hits in 11 games with the Storm Chasers. Now working in the bullpen, Kevin Pucetas had a rough go on Aug. 13, when he allowed three runs on four hits in less than an inning against Salt Lake.

Double-A

The playoff future of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Texas League) is a bit less secure than that of their Triple-A brethren, but the Naturals helped their cause with a 4-2 week. With 19 games remaining, the Naturals are four games ahead of the Springfield Cardinals, their chief competition for the North Division’s second playoff berth. A series to watch will take place late next week, as the Naturals head to Hammons Field to battle the Cards from Aug. 23-26.

Who’s Hot

Chris Dwyer looks like a completely different pitcher from the one who struggled with his control during the first half of the 2011 season. After a bit of a rocky start in Frisco last Thursday, Dwyer bounced back with 6 2/3 strong innings this past Wednesday night. Dwyer struck out eight while only walking one, and is now 5-1 with 40 strikeouts in his last six starts. Performing right along with Dwyer in the Natural rotation are Will Smith and Jake Odorizzi. Smith has spun three consecutive quality starts, while Odorizzi befuddled Frisco hitters to the tune of 6 1/3 scoreless his last time out.

Who’s Not

Jeremy Jeffress has spent the past month in the Natural rotation as the right-hander attempts to harness his control. After beginning the season in the Kansas City bullpen, Jeffress has struggled to throw strikes at times in Northwest Arkansas, issuing 17 walks in 23 2/3 innings of work. On the bright side, Jeffress has allowed just one home run and is inducing ground balls at a very high rate (2.83 ground out/air out ratio). Though he may have righted the ship with a scoreless outing in his last game, reliever Kevin Chapman had allowed five runs over his previous three appearances.

Class-A Advanced

The Wilmington Blue Rocks (Carolina League) were not able to match the performance of their high-minors counterparts last week, as they went 2-4 and enter this week’s report having just suffered a three-game sweep at the hand of the Frederick Keys. Though the team is not yet mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the chances that Wilmington plays into the middle of September are slim.

Who’s Hot

Nick Van Stratten put together a solid week at the plate for Wilmington, as the outfielder has hit safely in his last six games. His week included three doubles and four RBI, as Van Stratten is now batting .297 in the Carolina League. Acquired with Omaha’s Yamaico Navarro at the trade deadline, reliever Kendal Volz has yet to allow an earned run in four appearances with the Blue Rocks. Starter Justin Marks pitched into the eighth inning his last time out, allowing just two runs on four hits against Lynchburg.

Who’s Not

Wilmington is batting a collective .244, struggling to generate offense in the pitcher-friendly environs of Frawley Stadium. First baseman Ryan Stovall has hit a rough patch of late, going just 3-for-19 last week. Outfielder Whit Merrifield has also stumbled to a 1-for-12 showing in his last three contests.

Class-A

Trying to make the postseason in their first year as a Royals affiliate, the Kane County Cougars (Midwest League) went 3-3 this week. Though they treaded water in the games that they played, the club took advantage of a rough week for the Quad Cities River Bandits. Kane County and Quad Cities are now tied atop the league’s Western Division second half standings, three games ahead of third-place Clinton in what could be a two-team race down the stretch.

Who’s Hot

This week saw more impressive production from outfielder Brian Fletcher. The 22-year-old racked up three two-hit games in the five contests in which he played last week and roped a pair of doubles along with his 11^th home run of the season. Producing along with Fletcher of late is Brett Eibner, who has now hit safely in seven straight games. On the mound, Greg Billo has fired five consecutive quality starts. Though he allowed three runs over six frames his last time out, Billo still leads all qualifying full-season minor leaguers with a 1.56 ERA.

Who’s Not

Like Wilmington, Kane County’s offense is hitting under .250 this season, and of late first baseman Jacob Kuebler has not provided much pop. Kuebler has gone just 2-for-16 in his last five games. Shortstop Orlando Calixte is 1 for his last 18 as his batting average has slipped to .215. The right-hand batter is hitting just .189 against lefties this season. Reliever Chas Byrne was tagged for three runs in an inning of work as he suffered a loss to Peoria on Aug. 11.

Short Season/Rookie

The Idaho Falls Chukars (Pioneer League) broke out the lumber in the middle of last week, scoring 28 runs a two-game span. The club might wish that they could have spread those runs out, however, as the team went 3-3 last week and did not get any closer to the .500 mark. The Chukars are currently in third place in the South Division second half stadings, three games behind Orem and Ogden.

Who’s Hot

Edwin Carl has put together one of the most impressive campaigns of any reliever in minor league baseball. He struck out 8 of the 11 batters he faced last week and has now racked up an incredible total of 58 strikeouts in 27 innings with Idaho Falls. Carl has only issued three walks and has allowed just four earned runs.Richard Espy has cranked a pair of homers in his last four games, hitting safely in every game in which he played last week. Promoted after shredding the Arizona League, Nick DelGuidice is off to a hot start for Idaho Falls with six hits in his first 16 at bats.

Who’s Not

Moved into the starting rotation in the last few weeks, right-hander Willian Avinazar has not found his stuff yet, allowing four or more runs in each of his last three starts. A move to the bullpen has not helped Arkansas native Jonathan Dooley, who retired just two batters while giving up four runs in his last appearance.

The Burlington Royals (Appalachian League) did not fare well last week, going 2-4 as the team continues to fall off the pace. At just 20-35 overall, the Royals are likely to find themselves on the outside looking in at the end of the regular season.

Who’s Hot

Center fielder Lane Adams was an offensive bright spot for Burlington last week, notching three consecutive two-hit games at one point. Adams has at least one knock in 11 of his last 12 games, a surge that has raised his batting average from .268 to .305. On the mound, reliever Rudy Brown (2.97 ERA, 7 BB, 36 K) has been a standout on a staff that has a subpar 5.12 ERA this season.

Who’s Not

Joining the Royals at the beginning of August, reliever David Middendorf is off to a slow start as he has allowed at least three runs in each of his first three apperances in the Appy League. Opponents are hitting .448 off Middendorf to this point. Starter Angel Baez has struggled as well, posting a 9.00 ERA through three starts in the month of August. At the plate, second baseman Derek Hamblen is just 5-for-49 (.102) with no extra-base hits in 20 games with the club.

Down in Surprise, the Royals’ complex league club picked up just one win last week, as the AZL Royals (Arizona League) are now 17-29 this season. With that said, now that the amateur signing deadline has passed, there is a chance that some of the club’s recent draft picks could begin their professional careers with the team in the next few weeks.

Who’s Hot

Outfielder D’Andre Toney continues to swing a good bat down in Arizona, as he is batting .322 in 35 games with the team. Producing right up there with Toney is infielder Adrian Morales, who has three three-hit games in the last 10 days and is batting .355 with an impressive .483 on-base percentage. Morales has walked (21) more often than he has struck out (15) in AZL action.

Who’s Not

Collectively, the AZL Royals have a 6.63 staff ERA. Starter Cesar Ogando yielded three runs in four innings last time out, while Andrew Durden allowed four runs in less than an inning during a relief appearance on Wednesday. At the place, 2011 draftee Cameron Gallagher is still finding his feet at the plate, as the catcher is batting .174 in his first 11 professional games.

Former Naturals outside the Kansas City organization

A former Natural who began the season in the independent ranks is back in affiliated ball, as the Boston Red Sox recently purchased the contract of Jeff Howellfrom the Lincoln Saltdogs of the American Association. Howell has been assigned to Double-A Portland, where he will join former Naturals’ infielders Josh Johnson and Chris McConnell in the Eastern League. McConnell is currently batting .233 for the Nationals’ affiliate in Harrisburg while Johnson is batting .253 in 110 games.

After pitching sparingly in his first week or two with the Seattle Mariners, Dan Cortes is beginning to establish himself in the big leagues. The big right-hander tossed five scoreless innings last week, though he has not yet struck out a single batter in eight innings with Seattle. Fellow reliever Juan Abreu is making a case for a spot in the Houston Astros ‘pen, as he has not allowed a run in any of his last four outings with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Also now in the PCL is Blake Johnson, who fired three scoreless innings last week for the Colorado Springs Sky Sox.

Down in the Southern League, Corey Smith is hitting .270 for the Chattanooga Lookouts. He is joined in that circuit by a bevy of former Naturals, as Ernesto Mejia(.300, 30 2B, 20 HR), Ed Lucas (.281, 3 HR in 25 games) and Rowdy Hardy (3.14 ERA) all play for the Mississippi Braves.

Ben Swaggerty had been on the M-Braves roster as well, but recently eared a promotion to Triple-A Gwinnett, where he allowed a run in 3 1/3 innings over two appearances last week. He joins Jordan Parraz in the International League, as Parraz is batting .295 for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees.

Rounding out this week’s report is a look at the Florida State League. Outfielder Jose Duarte remains on the Jupiter Hammerheads’ disabled list, while Harold Mozingo has a 3.29 ERA for the Dunedin Blue Jays.

The Northwest Arkansas Naturals are the Double-A Texas League affiliate of the Kansas City Royals and play at state-of-the-art Arvest Ballpark, located in Springdale. Visit our website, nwanaturals.com, for information on season tickets and ticket plans.

The St. Louis Cardinals and the National League Central division crown seemed to be synomonous with each other. Year in and year out it was the Cardinals who sat at the top of the standing, but in recent years the tide has changed.

No longer are the Cardinals the lock they once were, especially after last season witnessed them tumble toward the finish line — losing 13 of 15 games during one horrific stretch. The upstart Cincinnati Reds were the Cards kryptonite, winning a few key series down the stretch to show them who the real big boys were.

This season the Cardinals were not even the odds-on favorite to win the division crown, but instead that honor was bestowed upon the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers, possessing a potent offense and a great pitching staff were an easy pick over the mostly no-name Cardinals.

However, it was the Cardinals and their under-the-radar acquisitions that made the most noise throughout the seasons early going. It was the Cardinals who sat atop the division, reminiscent of old times while the preseason favorites struggled to play with consistency.

Unfortunately the good vibes the Cards had earlier this season have not continued due to a variety of reasons: The most obvious one is injuries playing a major toll. Perennial N.L. MVP candidate Albert Pujols suffered an injury and faced a DL stint, causing the team to struggle.

In the opening game of a pivotal showdown against the Brewers, rookie righty Lance Lynn suffered an injury to his oblique, most likely sending him to the DL. Lynn has made all of 18 appearances, but already has a place in the Cards’ faithful hearts.

Lynn hasn’t been lights out like other rookie phenoms, but he has been effective out of the bullpen, giving them the spark they need. Since he joined the ranks of the bullpen, the staff has compiled an ERA over a run better than their season average.

With the Cardinals now trailing the Brewers by four games and the date August 10, time is not in their favor, but they have a roster in place that is built to withstand injuries and compete for the division crown.

For years pitchers would never pitch to Pujols because they did not fear the hitter who came after him in the lineup, but those days are long over. The Cardinals, never one to spend big on free-agents, paid an exorbitant amount to keep Matt Holliday after a mid-season trade.

Holliday has supplied St. Louis with another power bat to help take some of the pressure off of Pujols while adding some toward the opposition. However, arguably it has been an under the radar pickup who has supplied even more pop

While Holliday has blasted 18 home runs, obviously still struggling without the benefit of playing in Coors Field, Lance Berkman has found the fountain of youth.

After a year so disastrous that many thought he was done, the Cards took a chance and found lightning in a bottle. Berkman has blasted 28 home runs, which leads the team, while playing adequate defense in the outfield.

With three power hitters in their lineup, the Cards should be fine in the offensive side of the ball. For them to overtake the Brewers, the Cards need to pitch better than them, and win their head to head match-ups.

Following their three game set against the Brew Crew, the Cardinals will still have six games left against the division leaders. Those six games will almost certainly determine the division winner.

If the Cardinals play up to the level they had earlier this year, the lights will be on in Busch for October. If not, then a long winter awaits for the Cards and their fans.

Ryan Lazo is a contributing writer to I70 Baseball. He is also a Senior Writer for BaseballDigest.com. He can be reached at RMLazo13@gmail.com, followed on Twitter @RMLazo13 and read his blog Artificially Enhanced.

Going into this season, Cardinals General Manager, John Mozeliak discussed some of the off-season moves the club had made. He said at the time, and has since reiterated, that the team was aware of the defensive sacrifices they’d made (see: Ryan, Brendan, UZR), but felt that in order to better compete in the 2011 National League Central division, a more potent offense was critical.

Despite starting the season off slowly at the plate, and, according to at least one account, carrying a batting average lower than the weight of Mozeliak’s 12 year-old daughter, Ryan Theriot is the Cardinals’ shortstop. This is one area where the “we chose offense over defense” decision has been clear, as Theriot has committed 15 errors so far this season. He’s also batting .290 with 32 RBI, and has 17 doubles, tying him with Molina, 2nd to Holliday’s 18.

But this isn’t about Ryan Theriot. This is about the St. Louis Cardinals, and their run at the franchise’s 24th playoff appearance. I’ve said before that, when it comes to making a run at the postseason, what matters most is how a team stacks up against their division. Being that we’re halfway through the season, I’d like to take a look at four offensive categories in the National League. More specifically, I want to see the team for which these leaders in these offensive categories play, and which division that team is in. From there, I’ll let you decide whether or not pursuing offense over defense in the offseason was a factor in the Cardinals being at the top of the division (55 days in 1st place).

NL Batting Average Leaders: 3 of the top 5 are National League Central players (HOU, MIL, CIN)
NL Runs Scored Leaders: 4 of the top 5 are NL Central players (MIL, HOU, MIL, CIN)
NL Home Runs Leaders: 4 of the top 5 are NL Central players (STL, MIL, CIN, CHC)
NL Runs Batted In Leaders: 3 of the top 5 are NL Central players (MIL, STL, MIL)

You may be wondering about pitching categories, well, let me say this: Looking at Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, & WHIP, the aforementioned NLC teams are represented in the following manner:

NL leaders in Wins: 2 of the top 5 (PIT, MIL)
NL leaders in Saves: 1 of the top 5 (PIT)
NL leaders in Strikeouts: 0 of the top 5
NL leaders in ERA: 1 of the top 5 (PIT)
NL leaders in WHIP: 1 of the top 5 (STL, Lohse)

A marked difference! Pittsburgh is represented nowhere offensively, yet are also still contending in the division. Gallardo (MIL) and Lohse (STL) are the only two non-Pirates in the NLC that appear on the pitching leaderboard at all.

So, I ask you: Where would this Cardinals team be right now if not for the offensive production in the lineup? Don’t tell me that with the McClellan we’ve seen lately, the Carpenter we saw until recently, and the Westbrook we’ve seen all year that we’d be anywhere near the top of the division. And spare me any arguments that contain “if” and “Wainwright”–he’s a stud, we all know it, but he’s not around, period. I have to believe the reason the Cardinals are enjoying the success they’re having in the division is a direct result of the conscious decision to go after offense, even if it meant sacrificing defense. The biggest problem I see with that? Offense wins games, it may be true, but pitching & defense win championships.

I-70 continues its look at the NL Central with a stop in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee has been a darling of the off-season, if for no other reason than acquiring Zack Greinke from the KC Royals. For years, Milwaukee has had a highly potent offense, questionable defense, and substandard starting pitching. In 2008, when they won the NL Wild Card, it was only after they fortified their rotation with CC Sabathia. Looking ahead to 2011, getting Greinke immediately vaults the Brewers from fringe contender to bona-fide challenger for the NL Central title.

So much for the build-up; let’s see how they stack up against the Cardinals.

First Base – Prince Fielder vs Albert Pujols. Now that Adrian Gonzalez is in Boston, Fielder is the second-best offensive first baseman in the National League ( Joey Votto needs to sustain his 2010 excellence for a couple of years). Fielder has been on an every-other year cycle, posting OPS+ of 157 and 166 in 2007 and 2009, but 137 and 130 in 2008 and 2010. If the trend continues, he’s due for a monster season. Fielder has never been known for his glove, and is considered a below average defensive first baseman.

How good is Albert Pujols? An 166 OPS+ would be his third-lowest career season. Fielder has one Silver Slugger; Albert has six, including the last 3 in a row. He has 2 Gold Gloves, and has been ranked #1 or 2 in Dewan Plus/Minus 4 of the last 5 years. Advantage: Cardinals.

Second – Skip Schumaker vs Rickie Weeks. Weeks was the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft, but has never quite lived up to that expectation. Until last season, when he had his finest offensive year (OPS 125+, career high 29 HR). He is the Brewer leadoff hitter, he can steal (although only 11 in 15 tries last season), and he led the league in getting hit by a pitch (25) in 2010. He does strike out a ton (184 in 751 PA). Defensively he regressed from his 2008 campaign, again by Dewan Plus/Minus, and was ranked 32 by that metric.

Schumaker, in contrast, had his worst offensive season since becoming a regular in 2008. He’s always been just average offensively (102 OPS+ in 2008 and 2009), but his OBP dropped 40 points last year and he finished with an 83 OPS+. As has been well documented here and elsewhere, he has had a tough time learning and playing second. His Dewan ranking for 2010 was just ahead of Weeks (31). Advantage: Brewers.

Third – Casey McGehee vs David Freese. McGehee finished fifth in the 2009 Rookie of the Year voting, and followed that strong season with a breakout season in 2010. His 116 OPS+ was fifth best on the club, and he led the team in RBI. He is, however, another all bat/no glove guy on this roster; in 2 seasons, he has ranked 29th and 34th among third baseman using the Dewan runs saved metric.

David Freese remains an intriguing player who has lots of potential but cannot seem to stay on the field. He has yet to play more than 70 games in a season, although in those 70 games last year he put up a 109 OPS+. He only has 600 major league innings at third. Last year Dewan ranked him 21st. The Cardinals hope this is the season he is the full-time third baseman from March to October. Based on their prior performance McGehee is the better player going into 2011. Advantage: Brewers.

Shortstop – Yuniesky Betancourt vs Ryan Theriot. Neither of these players was a member of these teams in 2010. Betancourt played the whole season with KC and came over in the Greinke trade. Yuniesky has one of the game’s most unique games, but that has not prevented him from being one of the worst everyday hitters in the majors throughout his career. Case in point: last season’s 88 OPS+ is the second-highest of his career. He is a defensive liability at short. The last 3 seasons he has posted -14, -20, and -15 runs saved (Dewan again).

Brewer pitchers better be good, because their infield defense is not.

Ryan Theriot started the 2010 season with the Cubs and ended it in Los Angeles. His career OPS+ is almost exactly the same as Betancourts (82 to 84), although last year it was a meager 70. This is because he has no power at all. However, proving that OPS+ is not the be-all and end-all, Theriot has value as a hitter, with a .348 career OBP, easily besting Betancourt’s .296. From 2007-2009 he saved 4, 5, and 5 runs respectively as an everyday shortstop, and although that dropped below 0 in 2010 it’s a better indicator of his true talent level. Advantage: Cardinals.

Catcher – Jonathan Lucroy vs Yadier Molina. Lucroy made his major league debut in 2010 and ultimately had almost 300 PA’s. He had good numbers in the minors (.875 OPS), and his defense seems average to slightly above average. He threw out 29% of would-be base stealers in 2010 while in Milwaukee. Overall, like David Freese he has a lot of potential, but most of it is as yet unrealized.

Molina’s 84 OPS+ last year ended three consecutive years of improvement with the bat. He hit the same number of HR (6) as in 2010 when he posted a 100 OPS+, but ended with 19 fewer singles, 3 fewer doubles, and no triple (although I don’t think we will see many more triples from the man). Defensively he remains the premier catcher in the NL. His 44% of runners thrown out last year was his best percentage since 2007; it’s interesting that teams attempted to steal 63 times against him, the most since 2006. Molina won his third consecutive Gold Glove last season. Advantage: Cardinals.

Left Field – Ryan Braun vs Matt Holliday. Braun is probably the Brewers best all-around everyday player; Holliday is the Cardinals second-best. Braun is the 2007 ROY and has finished in the MVP top 25 every year he’s been in the bigs. He’s won 3 straight Silver Slugger awards. His OPS+ was 133 last year, and his career average is 140. Braun’s real good. His defense is a bit erratic by the Dewan runs saved metric (8th in the rankings for 2008, 34th in 2009, 8th again last season), but we will give him the benefit of the doubt and call him an average to above average left fielder.

Matt Holliday posted a 149 OPS+ his first full season in St Louis, one point short of his best season ever (2007 with Colorado). He also won a Silver Slugger last year, his first since 2008 and fourth overall (disclosure – apparently MLB gives out the Slugger awards like they do Gold Gloves, which is why 2 left fielders can win in the same season). The last 3 seasons he’s also been one of the very best defensive left fielders in baseball, finishing 5th, 3rd, and 3rd in the Dewan rankings.

Holliday is a slightly better fielder and hitter, but Braun is younger. Advantage: Cardinals (barely).

Center – Carlos Gomez vs Colby Rasmus. Gomez only played 97 games during his first season in Milwaukee, his season ending after he was beaned by Cubs rookie Brian Schlitter on August 3 and suffered a concussion. He was having a career year at the plate, posting an OPS+ of 78, his career high. That said, his OBP resembles Betancourt’s, which is not a good thing given speed plays a major role in his game. Defensively he had his worst season in the majors in CF by the Dewan metric (23rd amongst center fielders).

Rasmus is supremely talented and still channeling that talent. He had a great year at the plate (OPS+ of 132), but defensively he graded out worse than Gomez (28th). Rasmus is a much better hitter with their defense being about even. Advantage: Cardinals.

Right – Corey Hart vs Lance Berkman. Hart had a career year in 2010, posting a 132 OPS+ and cranking out 31 HR. He was an All-Star for the second time and cracked the MVP t0p 25 for the first. Dewan’s rankings didn’t think much of his glove, rating him 32nd of all right fielders and -9 on the plus/minus scale.

Berkman is the mystery man on this year’s Cardinal team. In 2010 he posted an OPS+ of 114, his lowest since his 1999 rookie season. He is still recovering from knee surgery. If he can re-discover his bat, and recapture some of his former form in the outfield, he will be a find. Berkman has not played right since 2007. Only 2 years worth of data exist in the Dewan database, and he received a -2 score in 2006 and -5 in 2007 at the position.

Cardinal fans will hold their breath Berkman plays well in 2011, but who’s the better RF going into the season is pretty clear. Advantage: Brewers.

Starters

St Louis will probably start the season with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jamie Garcia, and Kyle Lohse as their starting 5. Milwaukee will counter with Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson.

The Cardinal staff is pretty darn good, something that gets overlooked in all the Phillie and Giant hype. Wainwright was the 2010 Cy Young runner-up and finished 3rd in 2009. Carpenter was the runner-up in 2009 and won the award in 2005. Westbrook was tremendous the second half of last season, Garcia finished third in the ROY voting, and Kyle Lohse is – well – trying to rediscover his 2008 form.

Milwaukee’s no slouch either. Greinke won the 2009 AL Cy Young in KC and had a very solid, if not to the same level of spectacular, season in 2010. Gallardo was second in the NL in K/9 last season. Marcum had an ERA+ of 125 last season with Toronto, Wolf remains a crafty left-hander, and Narveson pitched well in stretches during his first major league season as a starter.

Looking at some of the numbers, the Cardinal 5 posted WAR of 6.1 (Wainwright), 3.7 (Carpenter), 3.2 (Garcia), 2.3 (Westbrook combined between Cleveland and St Louis), and 0.7 (Lohse). Milwaukee’s projected rotation posted WAR of 6.3 (Greinke), 4.6 (Gallardo), 3.5 (Marcum), 0.7 (Wolf), and 1.8 (Narveson) in 2010. That’s pretty close (16 combined WAR for STL, 16.9 for MIL), so that’s how we grade them. Advantage: Even.

Bullpen. Two things make evaluating a bullpen difficult. One is the amount of turnover most teams experience from year to year. The other is any change in management. Milwaukee is no exception when it comes to bullpen turnover. MLB.com lists 10 bullpen arms on their depth chart. No way all 10 men break camp with the big club. Of the names listed, four saw significant work with the club in 2010 (LaTroy Hawkins, Zach Braddock, Kameron Loe, and Manny Parra), and a fifth while with Los Angeles (Takashi Saito). How the bullpen will finally look at the end of spring training is still to be determined, but unless they pratfall Hawkins ($4.25M), Parra ($1.2M), Saito ($1.75M), and Loe ($0.65M) will be part of it. Possibly Sean Green ($0.875K) as well. Brewers relievers were 7th in the NL in WAR with everyone above less Saito and Green, so it does not make much sense to mess with a good thing.

John Axford is the closer. He saved 24 games in 27 opportunities after a one-plus year apprenticeship under Trevor Hoffman. Axford throws a heavy (95 MPH on average) fastball, slider, and curve. He should be better this season.

Turnover is no stranger to the Cardinal bullpen corps, but the same number of folks as Milwaukee has project to return for 2011. Kyle McClellan, Trever Miller, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, and closer Ryan Franklin will be the mainstays. Fernando Salas and PJ Walters look to have expanded roles (Salas made 27 appearances, Walters 7, in 2010). By WAR alone this group is not very good (0.3 in 2010 was the second worst in the NL, and 0.5 was the fourth worst in 2009 with 57% of 2011′s projected bullpen having been in those two). It should be noted that Cardinal relievers threw the fewest innings of any team in the NL in 2009, and the fourth fewest last season. They rely heavily on their starters to get deep into games, so they can get by with just an average bullpen.

Franklin converted 27 saves in 29 opportunities last year.

Ron Roenicke takes over as the Brewers manager. How he will choose to use his bullpen is not well known at this point and will not be until a couple of months into the season. We know Tony LaRussa has as a life mission to ensure he has favorable pitching match-ups at the back of ballgames, so he will use his bullpen frequently and in 99% of cases effectively. That has to be an advantage for St Louis.

If the Brewer bullpen is better LaRussa’s experience counterweighs it. Advantage: Even.

Summary. Milwaukee will challenge Cincinnati as the best offensive team in the NL. They have three offensive holes – shortstop, catcher, and center field. Defensively they will once again be below average. Their pitching will be solid and will probably determine how far they get this season. This sounds remarkably like the Cardinals in 2011. St Louis has 3 offensive holes – second base, shortstop, and third base. They were below average (by UZR/150) defensively last season and will probably be there again this year. Their pitching will be solid and will probably determine how far they get this season.

Considering how even these two teams are going in, if Milwaukee is considered a contender for the division title so too should be the Cardinals.

When the St. Louis Cardinals added veteran Lance Berkman to an already potent offense, my mind raced immediately to the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers. They were an amazing bunch of characters that simply hit the cover off the baseball for about three years, winning their division in the strike shortened 1981 season and coming within a few outs of winning the 1982 World Series. If the Cardinals were a precision unit, the Brewers looked like they just rolled out of a local bar well past closing time. Abner Doubleday couldn’t have chosen two better teams to face each other in the 1982 World Series.

Building the core

The nucleus of the 1982 team was a group of players the Brewers drafted and developed in their farm system. The two stars of this program were Hall of Famers Paul Molitor and Robin Yount. Yount would spend his entire 20 year career with the Brewers while Molitor played in Milwaukee for the first 15 of his 21 seasons. Between the two of then, they collected 6,461 hits, and 411 would come in the 1982 season. Yount’s bushy hair and enormous mustache fit in well with the rest of the team while Molitor’s clean cut looks made him look like a player from a different time. As a pair, they locked down the left side of the infield defensively and became a feared 1-2 punch at the top of the batting order.

Gorman Thomas

Gorman Thomas was another Brewers minor league product and had broken into the major league shortly before Yount and Molitor. Thomas was an average center fielder defensively, but the man could hit the ball. And hard. He was the right-handed Adam Dunn of his era, or maybe more precisely the Dave Kingman of the American League. He would lead the league in home runs twice, 45 in 1979 and 39 in 1982, but didn’t hit above .250 in either of those seasons. Of all of the players on the Brewers roster, Thomas was the one that Cardinals fans feared most because he delivered a significant power threat at the bottom of the batting order.

Charlie Moore came up about the same time as Thomas. His biggest contribution that he made it possible for the Brewers to trade away Darrell Porter in a huge deal that brought them lefty Bob McClure, who had a career year in 1982. Moore would spend most of the 1970s behind the plate, but would move to right field when the Brewers acquired Ted Simmons prior to the 1981 season. He was an inconsistent hitter, but even in a down year, he was a better hitter than most of the 8th or 9th place hitters in the National League.

Jim Gantner was the last of the Brewers minor league prospects. He would flirt with a .300 batting average a few times in his career, his highest average coming in 1982, but his value was a steady glove on the right side of the infield. Ganter, Molitor and Yount would rotate positions early in their career, but once they settled into Molitor at third base, Yount at shortstop and Gantner at second base, good things started happening. Gantner’s most memorable moment came in Game Seven of the 1982 World Series when he got into a shouting match with Joaquin Andujar after Andujar made a spectacular defensive play to squelch a potentially game changing rally.

The missing pieces

To bolster the young core of Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Gorman Thomas and Jim Gantner, the Brewers made several deals in 1977 and 1978 that got them very close to their championship goal.

Mike Caldwell

Mike Caldwell had been a sometimes brilliant but equally inconsistent pitcher with the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres. He came to the Brewers in 1977 and struggled in his first year. Not so in 1978 when he turned in a career year going 22-9 with 23 complete games, 6 shutouts and one save. His ERA of 2.36 might have earned him the AL Cy Young Award in just about any other year. Unfortunately for Caldwell, Ron Guidry of the New York Yankees also chose 1978 to turn in a career season, finishing with an unbelievable 25-3 record and an ERA of 1.75. Guidry would win the Cy Young Award and Caldwell would come in second. Although his numbers would steadily decline, Caldwell continued to be a productive starter for the Brewers until his retirement following the 1984 season. He saved his best performance for the 1982 World Series as he would dominate the Cardinals, shutting them out in Game One and going 8 1/3 innings in Game Five for his second win. The Cardinals would finally get to him in relief, late in Game Seven, scoring two important runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to give Bruce Sutter some breathing room. Those two runs turned out to be important as it allowed Sutter to challenge the Brewer hitters more than he might have in a one run game.

Cecil Cooper also came to the Brewers in 1977. As good as Paul Molitor and Robin Yount were, Cecil Cooper was the hitting star of the Brewers through the 1983 season. A dependable .300 hitter, you could also count on Cooper to hit 25-30 homers and drive in over 100 runs. He did just a bit better in 1982, finishing the season with a .313 average with 32 homers and 121 RBIs. While we marvel at his offensive production, his glove was just as good, winning the Gold Glove award twice. In many respects, Cooper was the Brewers equivalent of Keith Hernandez.

Left fielder Ben Oglivie was another piece that was added in 1978. Oglivie was a streaky bat that could produce some high batting averages and occasionally some frightening home run numbers. He would lead the league in 1980, but his production fell off after that. Even so, he still managed 34 homers and 102 RBIs in 1982, plus a huge home run in both the ALCS and World Series.

“The Trade”

The additions of Cooper, Caldwell and Oglivie helped the Brewers become a legitimate contender by the end of the 1970′s. They managed to win 90 or more games for the first two times in their short franchise history, but they were still missing a few players to be able to make it to post-season. Specifically, they needed a productive catcher, a staff ace and a closer. They would get all three in one of the biggest trades in Cardinals history, the one that defined General Manager Whitey Herzog’s legacy. On December 12, 1980, the Cardinals sent newly acquired reliever Rollie Fingers, catcher Ted Simmons and pitching prospect Pete Vukovich to the Milwaukee Brewers for pitchers Dave LaPoint and Lary Sorensen and outfielders Sixto Lezcano and David Green. Just 4 days earlier, Fingers had come to the Cardinals in a massive 11 player deal with the San Diego Padres. We were still trying to image a bullpen with 2 future Fall of Fame closers when this deal went down.

While this was primarily a player dump by Herzog, the Cardinals did get some useful players in the trade. Dave LaPoint became a dependable arm in the starting rotation, and occasionally in the bullpen. His contributions would continue when he would be traded to San Francisco in 1985 for slugger Jack Clark. Lezcano became the next in a long line of disappointing corner outfielders, but would be part of the Garry Templeton for Ozzie Smith trade prior to the 1982 season. David Green was the player that Herzog really wanted. A big man with great speed, a good arm and some serious pop in his bat would be a welcome addition to the Cardinals outfield. Injuries would take a toll on Green and he would never develop into the player Herzog had hoped he would be, but a minor league deal that flew under the radar brought that player to the Cardinals from the Yankees system. That player was Willie McGee.

The Brewers couldn’t have been happier with their deal with the Cardinals. These new players made their presence felt immediately and the Brewers responded with their first division title in the strike shortened 1981 season. They would lose the first AL Divisional Series to the New York Yankees, but would return to post-season again in 1982, beating a very solid California Angels team in an exciting 5 game series.

Ted Simmons had a bit of difficulty adjusting to a new league in 1981. He rebounded in 1982, hitting 23 home runs and driving in 97 runs, approaching career highs in both categories. Simba was adapting to the American League style of play quite nicely. His numbers would even get better in 1983, but then the 13 years of wear and tear behind the plate would start taking it’s toll and Simmons would finish out his career as a backup in Atlanta.

Rollie Fingers would lead the American League in saves with 28 while his counterpart in St. Louis did the same – Bruce Sutter would save 25 games in the short season. Even scarier than Finger’s 28 saves was his 1.04 ERA, earning the mustached one both the AL MVP and Cy Young Award. He was nearly as good in 1982, until a severe muscle tear in September would end his season. This one injury may have been enough to tip the World Series balance in favor of the Cardinals. Fingers would sit out all of 1983, but would come back for one more monster season in 1984. Unfortunately for Fingers, the aging Brewers pitching staff was largely ineffective and they slipped back to the bottom of the AL East.

Pete Vukovich

As important as Fingers and Simmons were, the real win for the Brewers came in the person of Pete Vukovich. He’d been a wild hard thrower early in his career with the White Sox and Blue Jays. He began to turn heads as a starter for the Cardinals, winning 15 games in 1979 and 12 in 1980. When he moved to the American League, Vukovich became an overnight sensation. He would go 14-4 in the short 1981 season and then follow that up with a team leading 18-6 record in 1982. That was good enough to earn him the AL Cy Young Award in 1982.

Vukovich was a perfect fit for the Brewers. He was a character with big bushy and uncombed hair. He looked like he had been wearing the same uniform since the start of the season and that it hadn’t been washed in months. He would also frustrate opposing batters by coming up with all sorts of equipment failures, generally as a reliever starts warming up in the bullpen. On a perfectly clear day, his cleats would suddenly be clogged by mud. His belt would fall apart, requiring the equipment manager to bring out a replacement. And my personal favorite, his shoes never seemed to be tied properly. Add to that a scary facial expression and tendency to throw high and inside, Vukovich became an intimidating hurler.

Like his equipment issues, his pitching was also about deception. While he had a good fastball early in his career, arm troubles limited it’s effectiveness in 1982, but he would show it enough to make his devastating change-up a world class out-pitch. We would later learn that Vukovich had torn his rotator cuff during the season and continued to pitch through the pain, rather than resting it and possibly costing his team a trip to the World Series. That would catch up to the former Cardinal as he would only start 3 games in 1983 before being shut down. He would pitch two more ineffective seasons, never coming close to his 1981 and 1982 performance.

Putting it together in 1982

Now that we know a bit about the players, let’s take a look at their production in 1982. As a team, they led the American League in wins, runs, home runs, slugging and OPS. They would finish second to the Kansas City Royals in hits and batting average. Even though they had a free swinger in Gorman Thomas, with his 143 strikeouts, as a team they were next to last in strikeouts. Yes, the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers were one scary team.

That’s what the Cardinals had to face in post-season. George Hendrick led the Cardinals with 19 home runs. If you combine Don Money and Roy Howell as a platooned designated hitter, only two Brewers regulars hit fewer home runs than Hendrick: Charlie Moore in right field and Jim Gantner at second base. Only one Cardinal (George Gendrick) had over 100 RBIs, the Brewers had 4, and Ted Simmons was knocking on the door with 97. The 1982 World Series was really going to be David vs Goliath, and David won that battle, didn’t he ?

Ahhh, but the Cardinals had the running game, right ? That’s true, but the Brewers did a bit of running on their own. Paul Molitor was threat on the bases and would steal 41 bases. Lonnie Smith was the only Cardinal that would steal more – 68. The Cardinals did more running up and down the order, but the Brewers could be aggressive on the bases when they needed to be. That would ultimately cost them in Game Seven of the World Series when Robin Yount would be thrown out at third in a game changing throw from George Hendrick.

How did the Cardinals win ?

It may be as simple as Rollie Fingers and Gorman Thomas.

The arm injury that kept Rollie Fingers out of the World Series caused manager Harvey Kuenn to juggle his bullpen and use several pitchers in a different role. After demolishing the Cardinals in Game One, Game Two was a tight affair until the very end. In a tie game in the 8th inning, Kuenn had to go to Pete Ladd instead of Rollie Fingers. Ladd walked the bases loaded and then walked in the eventual winning run on a controversial ball four call. After a long rain delay, the Brewers bullpen was again victimized in Game Six. And finally, in a close Game Seven, Rollie Fingers might have been able to keep it a one run game which might have changed how the ninth inning was played out. Bob McClure, who had taken the loss in Game Two, would give up two important runs and the Cardinals had some breathing room for the last inning of the World Series.

Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Cecil Cooper and Jim Gantner all hit the ball well in the World Series, each posting a batting average over .330. The DH platoon was largely ineffective and even though he hit 2 home runs, Ted Simmons was not much of a factor, other than knocking Joaquin Andujar out of a game by lining a ball of his leg. The one batter that we feared most in the Brewers lineup had an atrocious series: Gorman Thomas. Perhaps it is fitting that he struck out for the final out, Thomas would only manage 3 hits in the series, all singles.

More than Fingers and Thomas, team speed ultimately made the difference in the series. It is no surprise that the Brewers took two of the three games at County Stadium in Milwaukee. It is an older stadium and the infield and outfield grass was relatively slow. In the smaller and slower park, the Brewers bats became more potent. Things were much different in the cavernous Busch Stadium. Balls that got through the Brewers defense were gobbled up by Ken Oberkfell, Ozzie Smith, Tommy Herr and Keith Hernandez. A ball hit in the gap that got past Gorman Thomas, Ben Olglivie and former catcher Charlie Moore would be cut off by Lonnie Smith, Willie McGee or George Hendrick. While good pitching can defeat monstrous hitting, the real difference in the 1982 World Series was good defense from the Brewers being beaten by exceptional defense from the Cardinals.

And we had Bruce Sutter and they didn’t have Rollie Fingers

What does this mean for the 2011 Cardinals ?

An outfield of Lance Berkman, Colby Rasmus and Matt Holliday is beginning to look a lot like Charlie Moore, Gorman Thomas and Ben Oglivie. Did I mention that Thomas routinely led the league in strikeouts ? They produced a huge amount of offense, but they needed to because they didn’t prevent a lot of it from their opponents. The Brewers also had a respectable infield, but other than Cooper nobody was an above average defender. That sounds a lot like what the Cardinals will field with David Freese, Ryan Theriot, Skip Schumaker (or Daniel Descalso) and Albert Pujols.

The Brewers clubbed their way to the World Series. If the Cardinals want to do the same, they too will have to thump their way through the National League. That just got a little bit harder with Philadelphia’s signing of Cliff Lee and Milwaukee’s acquisition of Zack Greinke, but it can be done. Fortunately, there aren’t too many teams these days like the 1982 Cardinals and there are no stadiums like old Busch, so anything can happen.

Bob Netherton covers Cardinals history for i70baseball.com and writes at Throatwarbler’s Blog. You may follow Bob on Twitter here or on Facebook here.