The St. Louis Cardinals have dropped the first two games of a four game set with the Philadelphia Phillies, and both were heartbreakers which the Cards could (should?) have won. In both games, the Phils jumped all over the Cards’ starter for first inning leads. Both nights, the Cardinals battled back to tie or lead the game, but were not able to finish the job. Some notes and thoughts:

–The Phillies clearly are not the same team without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Normally, this would be a perfect time to face the Phils and exploit that vulnerability. But the Cardinals are so depleted by injury, they may be in even worse shape. Watching great teams locked in see-saw battles is exciting; watching teams full of replacements stumble through games and lead changes until one stumbles worse than the other is frustrating. It’s almost hard to imagine that these two teams clashed in an epic playoff series less than eight months ago.

–What was Yadier Molina thinking on the base paths Friday night? In the 4th, he tried to go first to third on a “can of corn” pop-up that Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino muffed in shallow right-center. Molina read the play right as the outfielders searched for the ball in the twilight sky; he was practically standing on second base by the time the ball dropped. But when he saw the Philly fielders fall over each other, he tried to leg out an extra base. And Molina is not a base runner that is going to fare well against someone like Pence—who has a cannon arm—in the outfield. Molina was gunned down at third…for the first out of the inning. Later, in the 8th inning with the game tied 3-3, Molina tried to score from first base (yep…you read that correctly) on a Matt Adams gapper. Molina is not alone in owning this one because Jose Oquendo was waving him home. But a collision with catcher Carlos Ruiz was not enough to knock the ball loose, and Molina was the third out of the inning. For those of you who haven’t completely forgotten everything from Little League, making the first or last outs of an inning at third base or home is generally frowned upon. He is still the best catcher in the league, and his offense this year has been a revelation. But a piece of advice for Yadier Molina, the base runner: know thyself.

–Speaking of that collision at home, it did seem a bit on the ballsy side for a catcher to plow into his counterpart like that. Collisions at home are a part of the game, and nothing about the play seemed dirty. But it will be interesting to see if Molina is the target of any repercussions throughout the rest of this series. I could be wrong, but Jonathan Papelbon’s first two offerings to Molina in the 10th seemed awfully high and tight.

–The recent antics by the Cardinals’ relief corps can be summed up by using a lot of one- or two-word descriptors, but I’ll keep it civil with a simple “Yikes.” Late addition to this note: the Cardinals have called up reliever Chuckie Fick from Triple A and optioned Fernando Salas back to Memphis. Time will tell if this ends up being an effective fix or a band-aid on a bullet wound.

–Whoever came up with the idea for Fredbird to dash across the field sans jersey in between innings Friday night after the streaking incident Thursday should be applauded. Good stuff. And if it somehow deters future hijinks on the field, please find a way to do something similar in the stands to stop The Wave.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained

The Zack Greinke trade of last December was aptly dubbed a “blockbuster,” meaning that several players changed hands in the transition. So to evaluate the trade requires more than just a one-to-one comparison.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

One of the centerpieces of the trade for the Royals was Alcides Escobar. Their arsenal of top prospects lacked a hot shortstop, and fans lusted for a change from whipping boy Yuniesky Betancourt.

Betancourt was not a centerpiece of the trade. He was a throw-in. Or more accurately, he was a throw-out. The Royals wanted rid of Betancourt, and the Brewers were willing to swap shortstops to get Greinke.

But what if the Royals had had the opportunity to trade Betancourt for Escobar even up during last off-season?

Certainly they would have jumped at the chance. Escobar’s struggles in his debut season in Milwaukee hadn’t completely tarnished his top-10 prospect ranking. Betancourt, on the other hand, couldn’t even get credit for hitting three of the Royals’ four grand slams in 2010. No one liked him, and his chances of emerging from the doghouse in KC were nil.

Looking back now, however, would a trade of Betancourt for Escobar, even up, be such a good idea?

It didn’t always look like a good idea. Like when Betancourt hit .333 with a homer and 5 RBI’s in the National League Championships Series. It didn’t when he scored five runs against the D-Backs in the previous playoff series.

But it did when he muffed an easy ground ball that opened the floodgates against the Cardinals in game 5. And it did when balls that would seem playable by average shortstops eluded his reach repeatedly throughout the playoffs.

Such is life with Betancourt. But under close analysis, is Escobar any better?

Comparison of a few of their numbers would show there wasn’t much difference between the two during the 2011 campaign.

Escobar’s batting average during the first two months of the season would have embarrassed Mario Mendoza. But he heated up to finish with a .254 mark. Yuni, meanwhile, posted a .252 average. No difference there.

Escobar’s .290 OBP was just 10^th among AL shortstops – well below average. But Betancourt, who has a career .292 OBP, managed just .271 this year. Advantage Escobar.

Slugging is where Yuni has a decided advantage. Like him or not, you can’t debate that Yuni has developed some pop. His slugging percentage in 2011 was an acceptable .381. Not great but just .007 behind someone named Derek Jeter. And last year, he slugged .405. Escobar on the other hand? An anemic .343 last year. Advantage Betancourt.

After knocking 16 homers in 2010, Betancourt popped 13 more this season. After Ned Yost bragged about Escobar’s power in the spring, his shortstop managed just 4. Big advantage Betancourt.

But while Betancourt begins to look like the better player, we can’t forget to look at the total package. Escobar far outshines Betancourt in the eye test. Who can forget the lazy showing on fly balls? Or the strikeouts with runners on base? Or the lack of speed or range?

Those headache-inducing defensive statistics seemed to back up the perception that Escobar is the far superior fielder. He scored higher in fielding percentage and in putouts + assists per 9 innings. Yost boasted that Escobar’s “runs are in his glove,” meaning that he is taking away an inordinate number of runs from the opponent. His arm is certainly one of the best, and he seems to move much better than Betancourt.

And speaking of moving, Escobar can move on the base paths as well. He was third among AL shortstops with 26 stolen bases. Betancourt has just 30 steals in his 7-year career. Escobar also led AL shortstops with 8 triples. Betancourt has a decent number of triples in his career, but just five in the last two years combined.

So in addition to fielding, Escobar has a definite advantage in two areas – 1) speed and overall athleticism, and 2) age.

Escobar is just 24 and looks lithe and agile. Betancourt is 29 but looks like he’s 39.

Escobar’s stock appears to be trending up, while Betancourt’s is decidedly headed down. Escobar took off after his horrid start and improved drastically over the course of his second season in the bigs. Betancourt, on the other hand, seemed on the decline. I have little doubt that Betancourt will be replaced within the next couple of years and probably won’t even be in the big leagues when Escobar peaks.

Before the season, I wrote the following:

With the proper expectations, Escobar has a great chance of being one of the best in team history. If Escobar could hit .250 with 10 homers and 30-plus stolen bases in a season, he’d fall right in with the best offensive shortstops the Royals have ever had. If he plays excellent defense, it would be first time in a decade the team had that at short.

If he performs any better than that, he could go down as the greatest shortstop in Royals history.

(See the whole article about KC’s history of shortstops)

While he didn’t exactly blow anyone’s mind with his play last year, I’ll stand by that statement. I saw enough potential from June to September to believe Escobar is a significant upgrade over Betancourt. I believe he is Kansas City’s answer at short, and I believe he will be a fixture on great Royals teams for the next decade.

The same could never have been said about Yuni.

Saturday night, the 2011 World Series resumes in Arlington, Texas where the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers will battle to break the series 1-1 tie after the teams split the first two games at Busch Stadium.

The word “pivotal” gets thrown around a lot during playoff series in all sports. For instance, Game 2 of this World Series was pivotal because a 2-0 series lead for the Cardinals would look immensely different than the current 1-1 deadlock the series is at now. Similarly, Game 4 on Sunday will be pivotal because one team will be looking to take a 3-1 advantage while the other tries desperately to keep that from happening. Pivotal games tend to be tense, and the most mundane mistake—like botching a throw/cut-off from the outfield, allowing the runner to take an extra base—can turn into a game changer, if not a series changer.

But Game 3 of this series may have a bit more tempered feel to it, for a number of reasons. And it is these reasons that the Cardinals should take to heart so they can shake off the disappointing Game 2 loss and play loose and easy baseball.

First, the winner of the game earns a modest 2-1 lead in the series. Better than being down 1-2? Certainly. But two wins in a best of seven series is far from insurmountable. Toss around all the historical stats you like about “When the series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 goes on to blah blah blah…” Numbers like that are borderline meaningless. Maybe a slight psychological tilt can be felt when a team loses the series lead or tie, but in reality the leading team is only halfway home. And if you believe your team can’t win three games before the other team wins two, you probably don’t belong in the World Series to begin with.

Second, everyone is bound to be a little more relaxed going into Saturday anyway. The Cardinals and Rangers defied pretty much all logic by locking horns in two pitchers’ duels in unseasonably cool October weather. These two teams had the top batting averages in their respective leagues during the regular season, and had guys like Albert Pujols and David Freese and Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre tearing things up throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs. Yet so far in this World Series, each team has scored a total of four runs. But that may change in Arlington, where the weather will be warmer, the winds will be swirling, and the park plays a little more favoritism toward the hitters than Busch Stadium.

Finally, any “feeling-out period,” whether real or perceived, is long gone by now. These teams have no surprises for each other. It seems the only thing that hasn’t already happened in this series is a slug-fest game, and it’s not like either team would shy away from that. In fact, it’s possible all the games at Rangers Ballpark could be mini-Home Run Derbies. And if both sides are knocking the ball around, the games become toss-ups really.

Make no mistake about it: A 2-1 lead in the World Series is a great thing to have. But Game 3 is far from a must-win for either side. And since the Cardinals are the team that lost the last game in heartbreaking fashion, they’ll be the team most looking to re-gain momentum. Still, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if they lost Saturday. It would just make Sunday more of a must-win game.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter at @birdbrained.

As we prepare for the finale of this exciting series, and its marquee Game 5 matchup of two former Cy Young Award winners, let us take a walk down memory lane, and look at the Cardinal history in Game 7s (and Game 5 for the NLDS).

St Louis is the preeminent franchise in the National League, second only to the Yankees in terms of World Series wins. All that success means the team has had multiple occasions to play a one game, winner-take-all contest. For example, the Cardinals played seven consecutive World Series Game 7s from 1946 to 1987. How did they fare in those opportunities?

The Early Years (1926-1967)

Their first World Series appearance went seven games. The Cardinals won that game, which ended with my personal favorite game-ending play for any World Series, namely Babe Ruth getting thrown out trying to steal second. Can you imagine the amount of ink, hot air, and bandwidth that would be consumed dissecting that decision if it happened in 2006 instead of 1926?

Having started well, the Cardinals kept rolling. They defeated the Philadelphia A’s to win the Fall Classic in 1931, and took out Detroit in Tiger Stadium to win the Series three years later. Enos Slaughter’s mad dash home secured the 1946 title in front of the home town fans, and Bob Gibson wrestled those mighty Yankees into submission 18 years later in front of those same fans. The Boston Globe learned the price of publishing a great headline prematurely (‘Lonborg and Champagne’), as Gibson extended Cardinal dominance and Boston angst with a 1967 Game 7 win at Fenway.

So six Game 7s had come and gone, and the Cardinals had won all six. They were invincible when all the chips were down. No one wanted to play them in those situations, no matter where the game was to be contested.

The Desert of Futility (1968-2001)

Was it Curt Flood’s slip? Was it Lou Brock getting thrown out at the plate two games earlier? Was it the law of averages finally catching up to them? Probably some combination of the three. The Detroit Tigers, led by Denny McLain, beat St Louis at home in that 1968 Game 7. After that, Cardinal dominance in Game 7s ceased. They continued to win the Game 7s played at home, clinching the World Series against Milwaukee, defeating both Los Angeles and San Francisco in the LCS.

But on the road they were hapless. The Cardinals blew a 3-1 series lead in 1985, dropping Game 7 in Kansas City. They blew a 3-2 lead two years later, losing to the Twins in the Homer Dome. Then, when they returned to the post-season 10 years later, even their home mojo disappeared. They blew another 3-1 lead, getting embarrassed by the Atlanta Braves and losing the NLCS for the first time. Finally, to conclude their first best-of-five playoff series that went the distance, they lost a heartbreaker in the Arizona desert.

Return to Normalcy (2002-present)

They needed a great play or seminal moment to change their luck. They got one, and it occurred in a Game 7. The Cardinals played their next winner-take-all game to close out the 2004 NLCS against Houston. The Astros looked poised to take complete control of the game when with two on and one out, Brad Ausmus hit a fliner into the left-center field gap. Jim Edmonds ran it down, making a spectacular diving catch to keep the runners at their respective bases. St Louis went on to win the game and the National League.

They played another Game 7 two years later, and thanks to a Yadier Molina HR in the top of the ninth, St Louis beat the Mets 3-1 at Shea. It marked the first time since the 1967 World Series the Cardinals had won a Game 7 on the road.

Summation

Over 85 years of playoff baseball, the Cardinals have played 15 Game 7s and 1 Game 5. They are 7-1 as a franchise at home in those games, and 4-4 on the road. In comparison, the Philadelphia Phillies have never played a Game 7. They have played 2 Game 5s, winning the first, beating the Astros in extra innings to win the NL in 1980. But, they lost the second, to the Dodgers a year later* in the same situation.

What does it all mean? No Phillie on the current roster has ever played in a Game 5/7 for that franchise. The Cardinals have 4 men left from the 2006 playoff run: Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and … Chris Carpenter, tonight’s starter. Additionally, tradition here has to favor St Louis. Plus, the veterans who played in those games of yore – men like Lou Brock, Gibson, Red Schoendienst, Willie McGee, even Stan Musial – keep that tradition alive by being a part of the locker room during spring training, and passing that tradition on to the current generation.

Everyone looks for even the slightest edge in games like this. Only in games like this can intangibles play a role. Experience and tradition favor the Cardinals. That has to count for something. It might be the last straw they need to break the Phillies back.

* Editor’s Note: It should be noted that this game five in Phillies history in 1981 was the first ever division series. This series was mandated by the players strike that year.

CHASERS ARE CHAMPS!
Omaha sweeps Sacramento, brings home first league championship since 1990

Mike Feigen / Omaha Storm Chasers

WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif. — The Omaha Storm Chasers began the 2011 season with the anticipation of opening up brand-new Werner Park, the excitement of a new nickname and the promise of a youthful roster packed with up-and-coming stars. They’ll finish it with the satisfaction of being Pacific Coast League Champions.

Left-hander Mike Montgomery – the man who was handed the ball by manager Mike Jirschele on Opening Day – closed out the season with one of the finest performances of his young career, throwing five shutout innings in the Chasers’ 11-6 victory over the Sacramento River Cats Friday night at Raley Field. The win gives Omaha its first league title since 1990, its first-ever PCL Championship since joining the league in 1998 and its first playoff series sweep in franchise history.

Montgomery (1-0 postseason) allowed three hits and three walks in his five innings of work, striking out six batters. He snapped a personal five-game losing streak, doing so in front of family and friends who were there to witness his first-career professional start in the state of California. Montgomery’s teammates also made him feel right at home with an explosive effort at the plate, scoring runs against the vaunted River Cats’ pitching staff early and often.

With two down and nobody aboard in the top of the second, shortstop Irving Falu dropped a single into left-field off Sacramento starter Travis Banwart (0-1). Catcher Manny Pina followed with an RBI double to make it 1-0, and second baseman Lance Zawadzki ripped an RBI double of his own, making it 2-0 Storm Chasers.

In the fifth, another two-out rally gave Omaha its biggest inning of the night. With David Lough on third following a Grant Green error, Banwart and the River Cats elected to intentionally-walk Clint Robinson to get to Kila Ka’aihue, who had struck out in seven of his previous eight at-bats. The Chasers’ first baseman singled home Lough to make it 3-0, then moved from first to third on an RBI double by Falu. Pina drew a walk to load the bases, and Zawadzki came through yet again with a two-run single to make it 6-0. Zawadzki finished the game 4-for-5 with three RBI and the series 6-for-14 with five runs batted in.

The top of the sixth provided more scoring for the Storm Chasers, this time on the club’s only longball of the night. Jarrod Dyson walked to lead off the inning against reliever Justin Souza, and Lough followed with a blast above the wall in right-center, giving Omaha a seemingly insurmountable 8-0 advantage.

The River Cats did make things interesting, scoring three times in the sixth to make it 8-3, then answering two Omaha runs with two of their own in the seventh, bringing the score to 10-5. Back-to-back doubles by Robinson and Ka’aihue upped the Chasers’ lead to 11-5 in the eighth, taking a lot of the wind out of the Sacramento sails.

Reliever Kelvin Herrera, the Kansas City Royals’ Paul Splittorff Minor League Pitcher of the Year, allowed a Chris Carter homer to lead off the ninth, but the River Cats could not muster any further damage. Herrera got Andy LaRoche to hit a slow comebacker to the mound for the final out, setting off a huge celebration on the field as well as back in Omaha at Brewsky’s, where more than 100 fans turned out for a team watch party.

Luis Mendoza was named PCL Playoff Most Valuable Player, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two excellent Game 1 starts this postseason. He beat the Round Rock Express 4-0 on September 7 and knocked off Sacramento 3-2 on September 13.

With the PCL Championship in tow, the Chasers will face the International League winner and defending Triple-A Champion Columbus Clippers (Triple-A, Cleveland) in a one-game, winner-take-all playoff on Tuesday in Albuquerque, N.M. First pitch of that contest is at 7:05 p.m., with the game broadcast nationally on VERSUS. The Chasers will host a viewing party at the Fire Barn Sports Bar & Grill at 96th Street & Highway 370, just east of Werner Park.

Over the weekend, the Royals AAA affiliate moved forward to their league’s championship series while the AA affiliate’s season came to a close. Below are the respective press releases from both clubs:

Ka’aihue Powers Chasers into PCL Championship Series
Dramatic walk-off home run in 10th gives Omaha American Conference Title

Mike Feigen / Omaha Storm Chasers

OMAHA, Neb. — Kila Ka’aihue has been a man of few words this season, so it was no surprise that with the Chasers on the brink of a playoff series victory, he let his bat do the talking. Ka’aihue’s 316-foot drive down the right-field line had just enough juice to hit the foul pole, giving the Storm Chasers a dramatic 4-2 series-winning victory over the Round Rock Express in 10 innings Saturday afternoon at Werner Park. Video clip of Ka’aihue HR

Long before the Chasers celebrated their win, the hero of the day was Omaha right-hander Sean O’Sullivan. Tasked with holding back the potent Express offense, O’Sullivan carried a perfect game into the seventh inning and a no-hitter into the eighth, with the Chasers clinging to a 2-0 lead.

However, with just six outs to go, disaster struck. Joey Butler hit a grounder directly at second baseman Kurt Mertins, who was unable to field it and was charged with an error. No-hitter still intact, O’Sullivan then served up a mammoth two-run home run to Luis Cruz, knotting the game at 2-2 and giving Round Rock its first hit of the day.

O’Sullivan bounced back to close out the inning, but the damage had been done. Not only had the dream of a no-hitter been dashed, but the Chasers were in jeopardy of losing the game altogether. O’Sullivan finished his day with eight innings pitched, giving up two runs (one earned) on two hits, with one walk and seven strikeouts.

After each team got two runners on in the ninth but couldn’t score, Kevin Pucetas (1-0) pitched a 1-2-3 top of the 10th to set up the game-winning sequence.

With one out, Clint Robinson drew a five-pitch walk, bringing Ka’aihue to the plate. He worked the count to 1-1 before connecting off Round Rock’s Tanner Scheppers (0-1) to end the game, setting off a celebration at home plate and an even more wild party in the clubhouse moments later.

The walk-off home run was Ka’aihue’s second of the season at Werner Park, also delivering on June 28 against Memphis. Over his last two games, the left-handed swinging first baseman has gone 3-for-6 with two homers and six runs batted in, picking up a two-run homer and two-run double in Friday night’s extra-inning loss.

With the 3-1 series victory, the Chasers advance to their first-ever PCL Championship Series in their 14th season in the league. They also earned their first postseason series victory since 1990, when they won the Triple-A Championship as a member of the American Association.

The Chasers will begin the PCL Championship Series at home, as they host either the Reno Aces or Sacramento River Cats. Games 1 and 2 will be played Tuesday, September 13 and Wednesday, September 14 at Werner Park, with both games scheduled for 7:05 p.m.

Travs win, bounce Naturals from playoffs
Jimenez’ two homers, four RBI end up the difference

SPRINGDALE, AR – The Naturals, like so many times late this season, fell behind early and mounted a spirited comeback. But unfortunately the magic ran out as they fell 9-5 to their in-state rival Arkansas Travelers, as the Travs advance to the Texas League Championship Series.

A first inning error gave the Travelers an extra out to work with and they capitalized as Luis Jimenez gave the Travs the early lead with a three-run homer off Jeremy Jeffress with two out in the frame.

That put the Travs up 3-0 and gave their starter Eddie McKiernan some backing. McKiernan, who had a dubious start to the season for North Little Rock had limited the Naturals to just four runs in his past three starts against Northwest Arkansas. In the past two his team had staked him to a lead before he toed the rubber, and Saturday was no different.

North Little Rock got three more in the fourth before the Naturals began to claw their way back. But in the top of the fourth, Jeffress allowed a leadoff single to Alberto Rosario who would come around to score on an RBI single from Matt Long. An RBI groundout later and the Travs owned a 5-0 lead. Gabe Jacobo also added a two-out RBI single to score another run which chased Jeffress, who was on a limited pitch count and was relieved by Kendal Volz.

The Naturals finally began to get to McKiernan in the bottom of that same frame as Tim Smith led off the inning with a solo homer to right to cut the lead to 6-1. Jamie Romak and Paulo Orlando followed with back-to-back singles and Wil Myers was plunked. Jeff Bianchi followed and one of the pitches to him went wild to score Romak for a 2-0 lead. Bianchi grounded out to score Orlando and cut the Travs’ lead to 6-3, but McKiernan was able to get Mario Lisson to strike out and Ryan Eigsti to fly out to prevent further damage as the Naturals failed to claw closer in the frame.

One thing that ultimately kept the Naturals from closing the gap was struggles with runners in scoring position as the team was 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position Saturday as opposed to 5-for-16 for North Little Rock.

One of the other things was Luis Jimenez. The Travelers’ third baseman drove in his fourth run of the game to leadoff the fifth as he took Volz deep to extend the lead to 7-3.

Christian Colon’s one out single in the fifth ultimately chased McKiernan and prevented him from collecting the win. Instead that went to the tallest pitcher in the minors, Loek Van Mil, who relieved to pitch to Tim Smith, who had taken McKiernan deep earlier in the game. Smith lined out sharply as Travs’ shortstop Darwin Perez speared the ball and took away a hit from Smith and, with Colon at second after a wild pitch, likely a run from the Naturals.

One inning later the Naturals did get a pair and close to within 7-5, the closest they’d get in the ballgame. Jeff Bianchi had an RBI double and Eigsti plated a run on a groundout.

But in the top of the eighth, North Little Rock put two more runs on the board and that seemed to take the wind out of the Naturals’ sails. Facing Ryan Dennick, a lefty reliever making his Double-A debut after spending all season with Advanced Class-A Wilmington, Dennick allowed a one-out single to Darwin Perez and a two-out RBI double to Roberto Lopez. Dennick walked pinch hitter Chris Pettit and then Gable Jacobo doubled to the left-field wall to score Lopez.

An eighth inning single by Paulo Orlando was the lone hit the Naturals recorded the rest of the way as their season ended at the hands of the Travelers, who earn their second trip to the Texas League Championship Series in the past four seasons. They beat the Frisco RoughRiders to win the league title in 2008, a playoff run that began with a three-game sweep of the Naturals.

The series will be remembered somewhat for the absence of Naturals’ Pitcher of the Year Will Smith, who led the league in both wins and innings pitched. Smith was shut down at the behest of the Royals and the Naturals had to work without one of their most reliable arms down the stretch. As it was, should the Naturals had forced a game five, they’d have turned the ball over to southpaw Justin Marks, another pitcher who would have been making his Double-A debut.

The 2012 season opener will be on the road as the Naturals open the season with a six-game road trip beginning Thursday, April 5th. The home opener at Arvest Ballpark for the fifth season of Naturals Baseball will be on Thursday, April 12th as the Naturals host the Corpus Christi Hooks. The Naturals would like to thank all their fans and corporate partners for their continued support this season!

Royals Farm Report: September 8th
Taking a season-long perspective as playoffs begin

Triple-A

In the postseason for the first time in 12 years, the Omaha Storm Chasers (Pacific Coast League) won Wednesday’s first game of their opening-round playoff series against the Round Rock Express. The Storm Chasers are now just five wins away from capturing a PCL championship and a berth in the Triple-A National Championship Game.

Stock Rising

Outfielder Lorenzo Cain showed that he has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level. After exhausting his big-league rookie eligibility with Milwaukee in 2010, Cain spent all of 2011 with the Storm Chasers and hit .312 with a .380 on-base percentage, and cracked 28 doubles and 16 home runs. Right there with Cain is Clint Robinson, who hit .326 and led the club with 26 homers and 100 RBI. On the mound, right-hander Luis Mendoza posted a 2.18 ERA, a phenomenal figure in the hitter-friendly environs of the PCL as he seeks another shot in the major leagues. Finally, reliever Kelvin Herrera began the season without any experience above Class-A but excelled at three levels, striking out 18 in 17 innings with the Storm Chasers. He appears nearly ready to uncork his blazing arsenal against big league hitters and should get every opportunity to do just that in 2012.

Stock Falling

Kila Ka’aihue put together another solid performance with Omaha, hitting .272 with a .379 on-base percentage in 95 games. But after struggling with Kansas City in the first month of the season, he may have fallen behind Robinson on the organizaton’s depth chart. After beginning spring training on the Royals’ 40-man roster, Lance Zawadzki spent significant time at both second base and shortstop but struggled at the plate, hitting just .233.

Incomplete

Mike Montgomery had an inconsistent campaign with the Storm Chasers, his first taste of the Triple-A level. Though his basic numbers (5-11, 5.32 ERA) do not impress, the southpaw did strike out a team-high 129 batters this season and showed glimpses of why he is considered one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in baseball.

Double-A

A late-season charge put the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Texas League) into the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. The team opened the first round by losing to the in-state rival Arkansas Travelers, 2-1, in 11 innings on Wednesday.

Stock Rising

In his first season in the Royals’ organization, right-hander Jake Odorizzi took a big step forward in his development, spending just a half-season at Advanced-A Wilmington before joining the Naturals. Though Odorizzi struggled with the home run ball in the Texas League, he fired seven one-hit innings in his final start of the regular season and posted a 54/22 strikeout/walk rate with the Naturals. Left-hander Will Smith was a solid presence in the rotation who improved as the season progressed. Smith led the Texas League with 13 wins and 161 1/3 innings pitched, earning Naturals Pitcher of the Year honors.

Stock Falling

Challenged with an aggressive assignment to Double-A, Christian Colon was a steady presence near the top of the Naturals’ lineup, but hit a middling .257 with just 24 extra-base hits in 127 games. Toward the end of the season, Colon spent a bit more time at second base, where some think his future could reside. Reliever Patrick Keating was crucial to the Naturals’ bullpen during the 2010 championship run but battled injuries and ineffectiveness this season, allowing nine home runs in just 38 innings.

Incomplete

Wil Myers battled through a pair of freak knee injuries in the early part of the season and did not have a chance to truly establish himself until the second half. Still, at just 20 years old, Myers displayed an impressive eye at the plate (a .353 on-base percentage despite a .254 batting average) and hit for more power in the season’s final month. In some ways, it was a tale of two seasons for Chris Dwyer. The 23-year-old southpaw struggled to harness his stuff in the first half of the season but went 6-1 in his final nine starts. Most importantly, Dwyer stayed healthy all season after his 2010 was cut short due to a back injury. John Lamb appeared on his way to a solid season before going down with Tommy John surgery in early June. After rehab and recovery, Lamb probably won’t be ready for action until mid-season next year at the earliest, but with his arsenal and pitchability, there’s no reason to believe the southpaw won’t succeed upon his return.

Class-A Advanced

The lone full-season Royals affiliate to miss the postseason, the Wilmington Blue Rocks finished the 2011 season at 66-72. The club did finish the year on a high note, entertaining the Frawley Stadium crowd with a sweep of the Frederick Keys on the final three days of the season.

Stock Rising

Many of the team’s top early-season performers – Odorizzi, infielder Rey Navarro and southpaw reliever Kevin Chapman in particular – ended the season with Northwest Arkansas. Among those to spend the second half with the Blue Rocks, Yem Prades hit .289 in his first taste of baseball in the United States. The 23-year-old Cuban defector still needs to work on his plate discipline (10 walks against 66 strikeouts). On the mound, Elisaul Pimentel’s brief stint at Double-A didn’t go as planned, but that should not take away from a strong season that saw him walk only 31 batters in 133 innings of work. He’s likely to get a full-season taste of the Double-A level next season.

Stock Falling

Nick Van Stratten began the season at Double-A before being dropped a level right around the midway point. Though his .271 average is respectable, at 26, Van Stratten’s odds of establishing himself as a future big-leaguer have grown slim. Wilmington’s home ballpark is a noted pitcher-friendly environment, but Tyler Sample posed a 5.25 ERA in his first season in the Carolina League.

Incomplete

Taken at face value, Tim Melville’s statistics (11-10, 4.32 ERA, 108 K/53 BB) are those of a player who put together a solidly-average season. But since this was the right-hander’s second full season at Wilmington, they don’t reveal much about his growth as a player. A shot at Double-A in what will be his age 22 season should give the Royals a better sense of what the former fourth-round pick’s future may hold.

Class-A

In a twist of fate, the Kane County Cougars (Midwest League) played themselves into a first-round playoff matchup with the Burlington Bees, the club which had been the Royals’ affiliate prior to this season. Kane County shut out Burlington in the first game of their series and needs just one win to advance to the next round.

Stock Rising

Perhaps no player in the Midwest League burst onto the scene in quite the same way as third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert did. In his first taste of full-season ball, the 18-year-old native of Nicaragua hit .328 from his first game with the club until the end of July. Though fatigue led him into a prolonged slump at the end of the season, Cuthbert’s full-season debut fully established him as a prospect to watch going forward. Though his velocity only reaches the mid-80s, right-hander Greg Billo befuddled Midwest League batters all season long, as the 20-year-old posted a 1.93 ERA in the regular season and fired seven innings of shutout ball in the opening game of the playoffs.

Stock Falling

A player with prodigious power, Murray Watts hit just .211 with five extra-base hits in 35 games with Kane County before going on the disabled list. Though Watts returned to action and led the lower-level Burlington Royals in home runs, the season was certainly a disappointment for the Arkansas native.

Incomplete

Former Arkansas Razorback Brett Eibner epitomizes the “incomplete category.” A two-way player in college, Eibner opened the 2011 season with the opportunity to get a full season’s worth of at bats under his belt. But in the second game of the year, Eibner injured his thumb when diving for a ball in the outfield. After missing two months, he returned to belt 12 home runs and draw 48 walks in 76 games – but also hit just .215 and whiffed 90 times. An injury-free 2012, likely to be spent at Wilimington, should allow Eibner to harness his impressive talent and make serious strides in his development as a prospect.

Short Season/Rookie

Both the Burlington Royals and AZL Royals wrapped up their seasons before the calendar flipped to September, so the Idaho Falls Chukars (Pioneer League) remain the only of Kansas City’s short-season clubs still in action. At 33-42 overall, the Chukars have fallen short of postseason play and will wrap up their season on Sep. 8 against the Orem Owlz.

Stock Rising

Though technically no longer a Chukar, Edwin Carl had the most statistically-impressive season of any Royals farmhand. Advanced for the level at the age of 22, Carl faced 122 Pioneer League hitters – and fanned 71 of them. He only issued only three walks and held the opposition to a miniscule .145 batting average. At the plate, 2011 draftee Richard Espy made a strong impression with a .391 on-base percentage, while Daniel Mateo led the club with a .341 average. Infielder Nick DelGuidice was passed over by all 50 teams in this year’s draft, signing as a non-drafted free agent. But he batted .396 with a 1.037 OPS between Surprise and Idaho Falls and seems on track to start next year with Kane County.

Stock Falling

Like Carl, Jonathan Dooley competed in the Pioneer League as a 22-year old, where he was the Chukars opening day starter, but did not have the same success. The Arkansas native began the season in the rotation before being moved to the ‘pen, posting a 6.79 ERA in the process. Overall, the Chukars recorded a 5.38 staff ERA, with Jose Sanchez (8.17), Robert Penny (8.54) and Willian Avinazar (8.89) posting particularly high figures.

The Northwest Arkansas Naturals are the Double-A Texas League affiliate of the Kansas City Royals and play at state-of-the-art Arvest Ballpark, located in Springdale. Visit our website, nwanaturals.com, for information on season tickets and ticket plans.

	Matt Carpenter Third Baseman Springfield Cardinals 24-years-old Bats: Left Throws: Right Height: 6’3″ Weight: 200 lbs Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Just like every Saturday here on i70baseball, the Cardinals Farm Report spotlights one of the prized Cardinal minor leaguers. This week, it is Matt Carpenter, who very well could be the best Cardinal hitter in the Minors.Just a year and a couple months ago, Matt Carpenter was drafted in the 13th round by the St. Louis Cardinals. Now he’s making everybody do a double-take. In his first professional season, the other “Carp” hit .309/.418/.471 with 93 runs, 31 doubles, 13 home runs, 69 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and 90 walks. He started the year in Palm Beach but quickly go the call-up to Springfield. Again, this is his first year in the Minors. The interesting thing about this kid is that, even with so little Minor league experience, he seems ready. In fact, I believe he’s by far the most MLB-ready prospect lower than AAA in the Cardinals organization. His defense has room to improve, but when you’re talking about his bat, there isn’t much you can say other than “wow”. The big knock on him heading into the season was his power, but that has obviously improved as well. His 13 home runs and .471 SLG indicated there is some pop in that bat. He won’t be a 25 home run guy in the Majors, but I think 10-15 is reasonable. He’ll be a top of the order player that should always have a high OBP due to his great plate discipline and judgement. The think that intrigues me the most about Carpenter, is what happens next year. First of all, will he be ready for his Major League debut in 2011? Freese is an injury waiting to happen and we are not very deep at third base in St. Louis. Freese is the only true third baseman of the bunch, and if he hits the disabled list yet again, does Matt get the call up? I say give it a shot. I have never been a fan of rushing players to the big leagues, and I understand that this would be rushing him to the big leagues. However, he shows incredible polish. Especially at the plate. He’s an extremely mature player who very well could end up being a .300 hitter for STL in the future. The other big thing that I wonder about is what happens when Zack Cox makes his way to AAA and eventually the Majors? I would hate to see either one of them traded, so I do not condone that whatsoever. The move that should be made is Zack Cox to second base. The Cardinals are obviously struggling in the middle infield department and Cox could be the savior. He has second base experience, so don’t think I’m just pulling this out of thin air. And if that is what the organization is planning on doing, he needs to start next season at second base. Not third. He needs to play one position and stick with it. He’s one of our top prospects and we cannot afford to mess around with him defensively. In the long run, I honestly think we’re looking at a future Major League third baseman. A successful one. Mainly because his approach at the plate. It’s so refined, so impressive. By far the best in the organization, and one of the best I’ve ever studied. His approach reminds me so much of Scott Hatteburg’s, and that is saying an awful lot. Keep an eye on this one, people. He’s flying under the radar as a prospect, but I can assure you that will not last long.
MiLB WEEKLY ROUNDUP
AAA-Memphis Redbirds
PLAYOFF record to date: 3-2 — This past week: 0-2, PCL Championship didn’t get off to a great start for the ‘Birds — Coming up: Memphis will continue the PCL Championship series with Tacoma.
AA-Springfield Cardinals
PLAYOFF record: 2-3 — This past week: 1-2, the Cardinals’ season came to an end with a loss to NW Arkansas
POSITION PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Matt Carpenter, 3B, Springfield
.500 AVG (6-for-12), .583 OBP, .932 SLG, 5 runs, 1 double, 1 home run, 4 RBI
Wasn’t I just talking about this guy? Seriously, he’s unbelievable at the dish. Very, very impressive. In the regular season, Carp hit .308/.418/.471 with 93 runs, 31 doubles, 13 home runs, and 69 RBI in 495 at bats.
PITCHER OF THE WEEK
Brian Broderick, SP, Springfield
W, 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 5 strikeouts
Is it just me, or does it seem like Broderick receives this award two or three times a month? In 26 appearances in the 2010 regular season, Broderick was 14-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 92 SO in 150 innings.

Justin Hulsey covers the Cardinals for i70baseball and his blogs, Cardinals Front Office and Rising Redbirds, that are also dedicated to Cardinals baseball and their minor league system.You may follow him on Twitter @JayHulsey by clicking here.