Tag Archive | "Playoff Hunt"

Uncertainty

The St. Louis Cardinals have just come off a road trip, a key one, at 4-6. They still have the second Wild Card spot, thanks to the Pirates and Dodgers having some rough series of their own (up by 1/2 a game on LA and 1.5 on Pittsburgh, as of 10 AM Mon. 9/3), but it’s safe to say that the Cards probably didn’t get the job done.

Carlos Beltran slides in an attempt to field a ball hit by Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond. The play would result in a 2-run RBI single. (Source: AP)

After taking 3 of 4 from Cincinnati, the Cardinals went 2-5 in their last seven games. In a four-game stretch on the road trip, the Cardinals were outscored 32-1 by their opponent. Thankfully the Cardinals didn’t lose much ground in the Wild Card chase, but the team definitely could have used a little more breathing room heading into September.

The expanded rosters may just be the kick that the Cardinals need to push on to the playoffs. Reports are flying that top prospect Shelby Miller will be called up, and Chris Carpenter has begun throwing again and feels good.

In their remaining schedule, St. Louis faces just three teams with winning records: the Dodgers (Sept 14-16 in LA), Nationals (Sept 28-30) and Reds (Oct 1-3).

The narrative seems now to have pushed from a bad bullpen and streaky offense to bad pitching, a severely-slumping offense, and injuries with bad timing. Rafael Furcal may be out for 4-6 weeks or the rest of the season, no matter how long that happens to be. Whoever replaces him will be a downgrade, and just another hole that the Cards can’t fill.

Only time will tell what happens now, whether the Cardinals right the ship and stay in the playoff hunt or play themselves out of it. There aren’t any signs pointing in either direction at the moment, but it shouldn’t take long to find out what the rest of the season has in store for our beloved Redbirds. Where’s the Rally Squirrel when you need him?

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Jeremy Guthrie: For real, or a mirage?

When the Colorado Rockies traded for starting Jeremy Guthrie last February, they expected him to be a reliable innings-eating pitcher with a deceptive fastball, a good slider and change up. The right-handed Guthrie was the Opening Day starter for the Baltimore Orioles the last three seasons and Guthrie was the Opening Day starter for the Rockies. By July 20, Guthrie’s 2012 season was a bust and the Rockies sent him to the Kansas City Royals for the disappointing lefty Jonathan Sanchez.

The 2012 season started out well with an Opening Day win against the Huston Astros. But the Rockies lost 13 of the 19 games Guthrie pitched in and he ended up with a 6.35 ERA, 4.5 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9 over 90.2 innings. In late April and early May, Guthrie also missed 15 games with a right shoulder injury. By June 20, the Rockies sent the struggling Guthrie to the bullpen as their long reliever, going with a four-man rotation. Guthrie rejoined the rotation July 4, but the Rockies lost three of the last four games Guthrie started before being dealt to the Royals.

In his first three starts with the Royals, Guthrie looked like a right-handed version of Sanchez, giving up 14 earned runs over 16.1 innings, 12 strikeouts and five walks, being pegged as the losing pitcher in all three games.

But the last two starts reveal a different Jeremy Guthrie. In a combined 15 innings, Guthrie hasn’t given up a run, earned or unearned and thrown 14 strikeouts and given up just two walks. And the teams he pitched against were the Chicago White Sox and the Oakland A’s, both teams who are in the thick of the playoff hunt.

Since the trade, Guthrie has a 4.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 over 31.3 innings. Meanwhile, Sanchez has a 9.53 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and a 7.4 BB/9 over 11.1 innings. So far, it looks like the Royals got the better end of the deal.

So why the turnaround? A big part of it is Guthrie’s change of scenery. When Guthrie pitched at Coors Field, he had a 7.84 ERA and a 5.1 K/9 over 12 games in 59.2 innings pitched. When he was away from Coors Field, Guthrie had a 3.75 ERA and a 5.3 K/9 over 12 games and 62.1 innings pitched. Guthrie also gave up 15 homers at Coors Field compared to nine homers in other ballparks. And did I mention Guthrie is a flyball pitcher? That’s not a good thing in the rarefied air of Coors Field.

Kauffman Stadium is more of a pitcher’s ballpark and with the Royals good defensive outfield, Guthrie can afford to be a flyball pitcher. Lately, the Royals offense is improving, so that gives Guthrie and the starting rotation better run support.

Another factor is Guthrie’s attitude when joining the Royals. Sanchez always acted like he didn’t want to be with the Royals and his performance showed it. But Guthrie says the Royals were one of the three teams he would like pitch for and so far he’s displaying a good attitude.

But two good starts doesn’t mean Guthrie will continue his good run. And Guthrie isn’t going to turn the Royals 2012 season around by himself. These are the Royals we’re talking about, and starting pitching is still the weak link of the team.

Guthrie will be a free agent at the end of the year. If he has a good rest of the season, he could command more than his current $8.2 million salary. Would the Royals be willing or able to sign him, or will Guthrie go somewhere else for a bigger paycheck? And the Royals may believe they have better and more affordable in-house options and let Guthrie walk.

For a trade that seemed to be a wash about a month ago, Jeremy Guthrie is becoming a pleasant surprise. And with yesterday’s news of former Royal outfielder Melky Cabrera being suspended for 50 games for testing positive for testosterone, the Sanchez/Cabrera trade doesn’t seem too bad, especially with getting Guthrie out of the deal.

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Let’s get ready to rumble

The stage crew is ready. The curtain is ready to be pulled. Lights. Camera. Action.

We present to you the Greatest Show on Earth, Major League Baseball 2012 style. You have waited with great anticipation since the final out of the 2011 season and here we go…..

How is that for an intro? While reflecting on this weekly column, I realized there is just not that much more that can be written or analyzed related to off-season news. It is just time to start watching some games.

If you follow the St. Louis Cardinals, you know the key stories of what has happened in spring training. It is time for the games to count. Has there ever been more anticipation for Opening Day in Cardinal Nation? Not in my lifetime.

This evening’s season opener in Miami is a special way to kick off the 2012 season as defending World Champions for the club. Media that are covering the game say it has been a playoff like/carnival atmosphere all week in preparation for opening the new stadium. Can you imagine the circus that would have ensued tonight’s game if Albert Pujols would have signed with the Marlins instead of the Angels?

On a quick side note, I absolutely love what the Marlins have done in reaching out to their community. I love ballparks being put in the heart of the city instead of out in suburbia…but that is just me.

The Cardinals have undergone tremendous change in the off-season. Do not forget or cast a blind eye to the rapid change going on in the game at-large as well. Three of the five 200 million contracts were signed this off-season, and none were handed out by teams named the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, or Mets. Television revenue is changing the contract landscape and resetting the market to new levels.

A second wild card team has been added to the playoff format. With the influx of TV money, and huge contracts now on the books, the 2012 trade deadline becomes different than ever before as so many more teams are now going to be in the playoff hunt.

2011 can never happen again. At least not  the drama that unfolded around the wild card race we have come to know since 1995. The purist in me hates the changes the game is undergoing. The baseball lover in me is glad the game is thriving in so many markets and realizes that change is always going to happen. The game morphs and moves on, and we have to as well.

While Cardinal fans will never forget the thrilling ride of 2011, anticipation for something new is brimming over. It is the hope of spring and Opening Day.

Let the Mike Matheny era begin! Let the Derek Lilliquist era begin! Here is to health and success for Adam Wainwright!

Get your ebenezers ready for the countless toasts to follow to the game we love so much. The games count now. The defending champs are ready to take the field with their fearless new leader. It is time to defend the crown.

Lights. Camera. Action.

“Take me out to the ball game.

Take me out to the crowd.

Buy me some peanuts and cracker jacks.

I don’t care if I ever get back.

Well, it’s root, root, root for the home team.

If they don’t win it’s a shame.

For it’s one…two….three strikes you’re out

at the ‘ol ball game”.

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Beltran, Pujols Switch Places In Cardinals Fans’ Hearts

Since the St. Louis Cardinals won their 11th World Series title in October, the team lost the city’s most beloved star and brought in a former Cardinals killer.

The Cardinals signed Carlos Beltran to a two-year, $26-million contract Dec. 22 to fill in some of the offensive production lost when Albert Pujols left to sign with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

If somebody had said in 2004 or 2006 that less than seven years later St. Louis baseball fans would have more positive things to say about Beltran than Pujols, that person may have been sent to the nut house.

Beltran put together two of the best postseason performances in history when he played for the Houston Astros in 2004 and the New York Mets in 2006. Each year he terrorized the Cardinals in the National League Championship Series. He had a combined .357 batting average with seven homeruns and nine RBIs in those 14 games.

Just the mention of Beltran’s name back in those days was enough to raise a Cardinals fan’s blood pressure. Now he will make their hearts race for a different reason.

All of a sudden Beltran could be the new hero in St. Louis while Pujols is the enemy.

This type of move certainly isn’t unprecedented. The Cardinals signed Lance Berkman last offseason, and he quickly became a fan favorite in St. Louis. However, these moves continue to prove that loyalty is a tough sell in the current baseball world.

While signing Beltran, who began his career in 1998 as a Royal, might go a long way toward keeping the Cardinals in the hunt for yet another World Series title, it’s unfortunate the current financial system in Major League Baseball forces teams to reload regardless of how successful the team plays the previous year.

Part of what made being a Cardinals fan so much fun during the last decade is the fact that there was always the star player that usually created memorable moments whether the team was in the playoff hunt or not. The attachment fans build toward their favorite players is part of what makes the game so fun.

But, that attachment is harder to build in today’s sports world because of the economics of the game. It is much harder now to put together favorite players and non-favorite players because they could eventually end up on nearly all of the 30 teams at some point in their career.

Unfortunately, the sport feels a little more watered down when situations similar to this offseason happen. That’s the direction Major League Baseball has headed for a while now, and soon there might not be much difference between the American and National leagues. It takes some of the culture out of the sport.

I’m not saying Cardinals fans shouldn’t root for Beltran now. He will be a fine player and likely help the team remain one of the best in the National League.

However, that part of baseball that turns us all into hopeless romantics is also the part that makes me wish Cardinals fans had the chance to root for Pujols for his entire career and Beltran could remain the guy who nearly thwarted two of the team’s World Series appearances.

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Season Is Over…But Not Lost

Heading into Tuesday night’s matchup with the Brewers the Cardinals had 28 games remaining. There is a menu of options for how this club can approach the rest of the schedule. Whichever approach is taken will say a lot about this club and the direction management is looking to go in 2012.

Puma

Tony LaRussa and John Mozeliak can stick with the status quo and finish out the season. Management can field the offers that are already coming and will come their way, shipping off performing veterans for young talent and draft picks. TLR can play up the idea that he is smarter than everyone mixing and matching lineups to his hearts delight. Or Mo can convince him that what’s in the best interest of the club is to put out the young talent after the September call ups and see what the future holds.

These are only a handful of I’m sure the endless number of possibilities being talked about behind closed doors. But my best guess is these are the ones most seriously being considered. At some point Mozeliak is going to have to step out from Tony’s shadow and show himself to be in charge of the future of the Cardinals roster. Mozeliak’s future with the Cardinals is directly tied to the 2011 off season so why not get an early start and make your move.

If you are Mo pick your best option or put together a combo off the menu and pull the trigger. Either way, make a decision and stick to it. The Cardinals are out of the playoff hunt but the season is not lost. To not use these last five or so weeks to its fullest would be a disservice to the team and Cardinal Nation.

The approach is to take these 28 games and set up your off season shopping list. To start…assume Albert Pujols is not going to be a Cardinal in 2012…cue gasp. I know, I know…but I think the Cardinals are set up better for the future without Pujols taking roughly 30% of the payroll. Now if he decides seven years and $23 million per is enough then I might change my tune. But neither his agent Dan Lozano nor Pujols himself has indicated a willingness to do this.

First step is not trading Lance Berkman. As Derrick Goold points out in Tuesday’s column Berkman is potentially going be a Type A free agent this winter. Keeping him around for 2012 gives the Cardinals a potential 1B and part time outfielder for 2012. Losing him to another team brings you back at least one high draft pick, potentially two. Trading him now more than likely brings much less.

Step two is inserting Jason Motte as your closer for the rest of the season. If the 2011 season taught us one thing it is that the Cardinals are not set at closer. Franklin, Boggs, Sanchez and now Salas have had their chances and well…Salas has held on admirably but it is apparent he is not the long term answer. Give Motte the chances and knowledge that it is his role and his alone until October. See you have and maybe that is one item that can be crossed off the winter wish list.

Next is to get Allen Craig and Daniel Descalso as many innings and At Bat’s as possible. If this means putting them into a rotation with Freese, Schumaker, Furcal, Jay and Berkman then so be it. Freese and Jay are safely on the 2012 roster as is Berkman if he wants to stay. Schumaker is in limbo but the next 28 games are not going to change managements mind one way or another. And Furcal, while a nice pickup is a health risk and will not be back next season. And by not giving up much to get him you are not “wasting” him if he sits from time to time.

Craig and Descalso will be around in 2012 but their roles are not yet defined as are the expectations. Get them out there, move them around and see what you have. Try Craig at 2B and RF, move Descalso all around the left side of the infield.
Wherever you plug them in, do so, and gather the data for the off season.

This season is over, but it is not lost. Preparations for a playoff run in 2012 begin now. Your move Cardinals.

These are just my thoughts…keep on reading and you’ll get up to speed.

Derek is on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze and also writes for the Rams at RamsHerd.com

Also on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/SportsByWeeze

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Beware The Ides Of August

Last August the Cardinals went to Cincinnati for a key 3-game series against the Reds. You might remember it – it included some colorful comments about St Louis from Brandon Phillips, a pseudo-brawl, and a Cardinal sweep. The Cardinals won their next game against the Chicago Cubs, but lost the final two in that series, on 14 and 15 August. That started a tumble that saw them lose 13 of 18, and nine games in the standings. Beware the Ides of August.

Berkman

This week the Cardinals went to Milwaukee for a key 3-game series against the Brewers. You will remember it – it included some frustrated comments about Milwaukee fans from Tony LaRussa, a sequence of ‘you throw at our guy, we’ll throw at yours’, and the Cardinals losing 2 of 3. The Cardinals once again approach the middle of August, and find themselves in a heated pennant race for the NL Central title. What will the outcome be in 2011?

It’s a strange coincidence that both seasons seem to be mirror images. The Cardinals are trying to fight through the challenge of a division rival with little recent playoff history,but playing with a lot of passion, and carrying a large grudge from years of Cardinal dominance. St Louis was unable to overcome the passion last season, despite a supremely talented core of players (Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina). Many in the organization came to believe the August 2010 swoon was personality driven – the club did not have enough character guys to pick themselves up when the going got tough.

General Manager John Mozeliak went out and reconstructed the roster because of the August collapse, and precisely so they could weather that kind of challenge in 2011. Lance Berkman was the biggest name signing amongst several players brought in (or sent out) to change the tenor of the clubhouse. The Cardinals were going to be better offensively, and have the team chemistry to fight through any adversity.

It initially looked that way. The Cardinals had played well and, even after enduring a 7-game losing streak in mid-June, found themselves in first place, 7 games over .500, on 1 July. Since that day they’ve been positively mediocre (13-15). They now sit 3.5 games behind Milwaukee. Unlike last season, in which they played Cincinnati only 3 more times after that August series, they still have 9 games remaining against the Brewers. There is adversity to attend to. Pujols has not been Pujols, and the team has endured injuries as well as inconsistent performance from the bullpen in the late innings, but all teams endure injuries and poor performance during a season. The elite teams, the ‘character’ teams, fight through it. The rest of the league succumbs to it. St Louis appears to be succumbing to it.

Despite all the front office’s efforts, this team is performing a lot like last year’s. And the Ides of August approach. St Louis has the time, the schedule, and the roster to write a different ending to this story, but time is running out. The team built to fight through any adversity is going to have to fight much harder than they probably expected.

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Let’s Make A (Big) Deal

It is time to talk trades. They certainly have become a hot button topic around St. Louis two weeks before the deadline. As the unofficial second half gets underway, the needs for every team in the playoff hunt have started to come into focus. The Cardinals are no exception.

The biggest rumors about the Cards currently swirl around Colby Rasmus. He is clearly struggling this year both at the plate and in the field. He continues to appear aloof at times, and when he needs to get right he apparently only finds solace working with his dad. Are the Cardinals fed up with the drama? Perhaps. But Rasmus does have a ton of talent and makes little money. That makes him two things: a valuable player to hold onto, and a valuable trade chip.

The Cards have two glaring needs at the moment: better defense, and pitching. The team seems set on the middle infield of Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker, which can be adventurous. But with Nick Punto and Daniel Descalso as backups, things don’t look too terrible in the late innings. Ditto the outfield when Jon Jay comes in. And Friday the team announced reliever Eduardo Sanchez will be shut down indefinitely. So as far as the bullpen is concerned, what you currently see is what you get. The rotation has shown to be dicey at times, but the Cards do have all five starters healthy. That’s more than they could say this time last year.

If the Cards make a deal without giving up much, it will likely be to shore up the bullpen. No shame in that at all. But if they truly want to trade Rasmus, it really is only worth their while to turn any potential deal into a blockbuster. To do that, and get value in return, the Cards may have to part with more than one big name.

For instance, the Tampa Bay Rays are in third place in the AL East behind—who else—the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. The Rays may not yet feel like they are out of the race, but realistically they will have a pretty good idea where they stand by the trade deadline. They have a strong group of pitchers in both the big leagues and their system, and they rely on young, cost-controlled players year in and year out. The Cards and Rays have supposedly discussed Rasmus in the past, so it seems a fit may be there. But something as simplistic as swapping Rasmus for the Rays’ current center fielder BJ Upton one for one doesn’t really benefit the Cards. The phrase “six of one, half a dozen of the other” comes to mind.

So what if the Cards up the stakes and try to pry one of Tampa’s stud starting pitchers away? Let’s think big, here: James Shields or David Price. Shields is signed to a deal that pays him $4.25 million this year, but includes three years of options worth $7, $9, and $12 million through 2014. One could easily see where the payroll-conscious Rays may want to get out from under such numbers. Price, the ace of the staff (or, at the very least, co-ace with Shields), is still arbitration-eligible but has a contract he can opt-out of should he want to go to the bargaining table. Though the current dollars are team-friendly, Price could very easily make tons more cash if he really wanted to.

Of course, regardless of what these players make, the Rays won’t let either of them get away cheap. Rasmus, on his own, would likely not be enough to land one of these hurlers. But the Cards have two valuable young pitchers of their own in Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez who have recently rocketed up the prospect value charts. And before the screams of “HOW CAN YOU MORTGAGE THE FUTURE” come out, take a deep breath and consider what the Cards would receive. Obtaining Shields or Price would give the Cards a proven #2-type starter (or better) they could control for several years. Imagine how that improves the team this year, then imagine it with Adam Wainwright for the next two years or more. A top three of Wainwright, Shields or Price, and Garcia would stack up against any team in the league…the Phillies included. And while it’s true the team could also have that with Miller and Martinez, they obviously offer no guarantees. Neither do Shields or Price, for that matter. No pitcher does. But guys who have shown they can do it at the big league level will always be more valuable. That is what the Cardinals need now, and that is what they will need in the future. Shields or Price offer both. Miller and Martinez do not.

The Cards may view Miller and Martinez as “untouchable” but they would almost certainly pause and think if the Rays dangled someone like Price. That is the beauty of this time of year; whether it’s a pipe dream or a realistic possibility, all options are on the table. If the Cards truly feel they need to move Rasmus, they must receive value back for him. Going after rentals and role players is not the answer. And maybe trading away Miller or Martinez isn’t the answer, either. But this team, as currently constructed, has weaknesses that will prevent it from going deep in the playoffs if they make it that far. So the question the Cardinals have to answer is one of commitment: are they in, or are they all in?

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

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Faith?

I would consider myself to be something more than just a fan of the Chiefs and the Royals. I have had season tickets to both and follow both with the same desire as well as loyalty.

The last two seasons have been rough with both the Royals and Chiefs having horrid seasons, but I still watched I still had faith. Or should I say I thought I had faith. The reason I say this is because with the baseball season winding down in Kansas City I have had the chance to go see the Royals for free but didn’t because of the price of gas and hotels, but in that same week I found myself justifying $300 tickets to see the Chiefs. I ended up not being able to go to the Chiefs game, but the fact that I was willing to spend so much to see the now 3-0 Chiefs made me take another look at my fan loyalty to the Royals.

I would still say that I am a loyal fan and lover of the K but I don’t think I can say with 100 percent honesty that I have faith in the Royals. I knew Lamar Hunt would never let losing become the norm on the red side of the Truman Sports Complex, but I don’t have the same feeling for the blue side. Kansas City as a whole needs faith and hope that this ownership group will bring back the faith that was once found in the K.

The mindset of a Royals fan has over the years slowly been changed from “let’s win” to “let’s have fun.” A game at the K is no longer about seeing the product on the field but more about just going and having fun. The Royals need to have a winning team for several seasons before this mindset will change, but they need to look to Arrowhead to help build the fan base back.

The arguments of small market this and that can not be justified when there are 80,000 fans across the street wiling to pay double face value on upper deck tickets. The city is willing and ready to fill the K, but they have to have something to cheer about. The team needs to be in the playoff hunt and the team needs to go out there and make moves.

The team has started to make changes but there is not a burning feeling that these moves are franchise-changing. The team has yet to make a move to place the future of the team on the career of any player or coach. I want one or two people who I can point to and say, “This is the future.” I want to know who our stars are going to be. I want something to put my faith in.

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DeJesus Injury Could be A Blessing

DeJesus7.jpg image by dsanford

David DeJesus is out for the year with an injury to his hand. He was the Royals’ number one trading chip going into the deadline but his recent injury has guaranteed that he will not be leaving the club this season. He has an option for next season which will most likely be picked up by the team after the Alberto Callaspo trade.

The Callaspo deal gives the team enough money to keep DeJesus next year even at a price tag of $6 million. Replacing DeJesus for less than that might be a hard thing to do so it is safe to say he will be in blue next year.

His trade value may go down some next year but if he can regain his form after his hand heals, DeJesus will still be a good deadline pickup for a contending team this time next season. The Royals will have two options in my mind with DeJesus during the offseason. The first is to just pick up his option for next year, letting him play out the contract and trading him at the deadline if they are blown away by an offer. The second is to pick up his option in the summer to turn around and trade him before the season starts. I personally like the idea of letting him play the season out. Kansas City could get off to a good start and they might not even want to trade him them.

One good thing about DeJesus’ injury is that it allows the team to try out new players as an everyday outfielder for the remainder of the season. This can mean bringing up AAA talent or letting a bench player earn his way into the starting job for next year.

The second reason that DeJesus getting hurt is good for the team is because it has now put more focus on Jose Guillen and Scott Podsednik. The trade value for these two players is not as high as DeJesus but getting rid of these two players is a better move for the team. Podsednik was the first to move from the outfield yesterday after being traded to the Dodgers. The fact that Podsednik was moved just furthers the point that DeJesus being on the DL is actually a good thing.

Guillen will more than likely follow Podsednik out the door in the next few days. The market for serviceable outfielders has increased after injuries to DeJesus, Corey Hart, and Shane Victorino and gives KC the upper hand as teams such as the Giants are scrambling for a deadline move.

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