(Editor’s note: All stats used in this piece are as of Monday, 8/27)

This past offseason, Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig expanded the playoff system. Two wild card berths were added, one to each league. A single elimination game would be played to determine the Wild Card winner. The current standings are like this:

Atlanta 73-55 (home field advantage for playoff)

San Francisco 71-57* (lead NL West by 1 game over LA Dodgers)

St. Louis 70-57

LA Dodgers 69-59* (1.5 back of STL, 1 game back of San Francisco in NL West)

Pittsburgh 68-59 (2 back of STL)

Arizona 64-64 (6.5 back of STL)

——————————————————————————————————————————————————–

It’s safe to say that Arizona is likely out of playoff contention, barring anything dramatic and unusual. The Wild Card will be a five-team race, and an exciting one at that. We’ll begin the preview with our own St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals took 2 of 3 from Cincinnati this past weekend, and gained a game in the NL Central. Still, the Reds hold a 6 game lead in the Central and should be able to maintain that lead through the rest of the regular season. If St. Louis can maintain their offensive production, they should have an advantage at maintaining a spot for Game 163. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals’ rotation will play out, with Joe Kelly pitching in Lance Lynn‘s rotation spot for the time being. September’s expanded rosters may help the Cardinals in their quest.

The Cards have the toughest remaining schedule of any Wild Card contender. They have five series against teams with records above the .500 mark, three of which are against division leading teams (two against Washington, one against Cincinnati).

Cardinals fans will likely remain nervous from now until playoff time, and have good reason to be that way. Everything will have to be clicking for the Redbirds. They cannot afford to give many games away. It can be done, but they have a tough hill to climb to get there.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at PIT (Aug 28 & 29) at LA (Sept 13-16)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers, in pursuit of the playoffs, may have just become the biggest threat to the Redbirds” Wild Card hopes.

A nine-player trade took place between the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox on Saturday. Boston sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto to LA, while the Sox received James Loney and four prospects. For the Red Sox, the trade was a salary dump and concession for the 2012 season. For LA, the trade showed that the Dodgers are serious about the playoffs, and the near future, under their new ownership. The trade could turn out to be much like the Cardinals trading Colby Rasmus to Toronto last season, and we all know how that turned out for St. Louis.

The Cardinals, Nationals and Reds are the only non-division opponents that the Dodgers face in the rest of the regular season. Washington and Cincinnati have the upper hand in their respective divisions (4 1/2 and 6 games respectively). Of the Wild Card contenders, Los Angeles may be the toughest opposition St. Louis has for the next month and a half. The Dodgers’ dangerous pitching and newly-revamped offense, combined with the easy schedule, should strike fear in their opponents and give LA an edge in the race.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at SF (Sept 7-9), vs STL (Sept 13-16), vs SF (Oct 1-3)

San Francisco Giants

Tim Lincecum has been a huge disappointment in the otherwise stellar season so far for San Fran. The PED-suspension of Melky Cabrera will certainly hurt the Giants’ chances at an NL West title. Despite these events, the Giants have been able to hold a slight division lead on the Dodgers. The only non-division opponents remaining on the schedule for the Giants are the Astros and Cubs. The NL West is pretty much a two-team race between the Dodgers and Giants. The advantage, at least on paper, goes to LA because of the trade boost. The battle for the West (and subsequent Wild Card spot) should go down to the final days of the regular season, but don’t be surprised if LA runs away to a division title before then.

Remaining games vs WC teams: vs LAD (Sept 7-9), at LAD (Oct 1-3)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Other than St. Louis, the Pirates have just three series left with teams that have winning records (two with Cincinnati, one with Atlanta – one Reds series and the Braves series at home). The Pirates are much better at home than on the road (38-25/30-34). Pittsburgh’s contention will depend on their pitching, which has been a major plus for them in 2012. Led by James McDonald and AJ Burnett, the Bucs’ rotation has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Barring a late season collapse or injuries, Pittsburgh should remain in the three-team race for Wild Card spot number two.

Remaining games vs WC teams: vs STL (Aug 28 & 29), vs ATL (Oct 1-3)

Atlanta Braves (current leader of first Wild Card spot, 2.5 games ahead of Cardinals for position)

The Braves have a big strength of schedule in the remainder of the regular season.  Thanks to a weak NL East, Atlanta faces only two opponents with winning records, Washington and Pittsburgh. It would take a Braves slump and Cardinals surge for St. Louis to take the number one spot and home field for Game 163. It happened in 2011, but given the schedule and sure-thing Braves pitching staff, don’t expect history to repeat itself. Atlanta should be hosting Game 163 in October. The only question they should have is who they will be facing on that day.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at PIT (Oct 1-3)

———————————————————————————————————————————————————

The 2012 Wild Card race will be exciting to watch. It won’t quite have the excitement of the 2011 Wild Card, but the first year with the new system won’t disappoint. Expect some good baseball in the season’s last month and a half!

Strange things happen when the baseball gods begin waving their magic bats over the otherwise earthly progressions of the game.

Sometimes the ball bounces funny; sometimes it doesn’t bounce off anything but a seat in the stands. Sometimes it takes an odd, fateful curve fair…or foul. Good teams lose games they shouldn’t, bad teams win games they shouldn’t, and the order of the standings can look completely different from week to week.

But baseball is and forever will be a numbers game. Advanced baseball statistics are a cottage industry these days, yet a .300 average, 30 home runs, and 100 RBI will never be looked at as a bad year.

Other numbers seem to just come from nowhere. The St. Louis Cardinals, most recently, were the direct object of such weirdness. By this point, the tale is well-known: 10.5 games back on August 25; three games back with five to play; clinching on the now-infamous night of Game 162. It took 11 postseason wins to clinch their 11th World Series championship in 2011, known forever for the Game 6 heroics that culminated with David Freese’s dramatic walk-off home run in, of course, the 11th inning.

That kind of stuff never happens more than once if it happens at all. That’s why it was so magical. But even the best of the best and the worst of the worst can’t keep baseball from bringing it weird every once in a while. Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates lost a heartbreaking 19-inning game to the Atlanta Braves on a possibly bad call at the plate. The Pirates never recovered, and soon skidded out of playoff contention—a place they had not been since 1992, when they lost the NLCS to none other than the Atlanta Braves on a Game 7 walk-off single that scored former Pirate and notorious base path clogger Sid Bream. This year, the Pirates and Cardinals hooked up for their own 19 inning affair. The winner would take two of three in the series. It meant the difference between a tie for the second Wild Card spot or the Bucs leaving St. Louis with their heads held high and some breathing room. And the Pirates’ fortunes were different this time around; they beat the Cards to claim a two game lead on the playoff spot. Yet somehow, less than a week later, the Cardinals have leapfrogged the Pirates in a four-game swing that has the Redbirds out in front in the second Wild Card spot by two games. Sometimes even momentum gets smacked back to the ground by karma.

To get there, the Cardinals beat the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds 8-5 Friday night. But this wasn’t a typical victory. The Reds led 5-2 after five innings, and the game was inching dangerously close to getting into the hands of the vaunted Cincy bullpen. Starter Mat Latos was cruising along, as he had done for the entire month of August to this point: going into Friday’s game, Latos had an ERA of less than one over four starts and averaged over seven innings per start. Then, almost out of nowhere, the Cardinals caught fire and torched the Reds in the sixth. When it was all said and done, Latos finished only five innings and allowed seven earned runs, equaling what he had allowed over his last six outings combined.

So now, the Cardinals find themselves looking at that magical date again: August 25. Except they are currently in a playoff spot, and are only one and a half games back of the Braves for the top Wild Card slot. If the season ended today, the Braves and Cards would play each other for the NL Wild Card. Funny how that works, huh? The Cards are also only six games behind the Reds in the Central. They don’t need to rely on a miracle run this year. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have one in them.

Last year, the Cardinals were a team that exceeded expectations at the end of the year to do what they did. In 2012, they have never quite lived up to expectations. Their offensive output and pitching prowess have not translated into the win-loss record everyone expected. The Cards constantly seem to be getting in their own way when it comes to putting together a run of victories. Their current winning streak stands at four, and this would be the best possible time to win six in a row or 10 of 11 or something. Is it possible? Certainly. Is it likely? Who knows…

But that’s why they play 162. The Cardinals got a big win Friday night; a win by the Reds Saturday renders it almost meaningless. And then they’ll do it all over again on Sunday. A pitch here, a bloop there…win or lose, as long as there are outs to give and games to play, nothing is impossible and nothing is decided.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter at @birdbrained.

Major league teams head to spring training about the time the NBA rolls into its second half. It’s a time ripe for optimism for baseball’s downtrodden, and fans need look no further than what’s going in with the New York Knicks to find hope.

While we baseball fanatics are set to scour spring training reports, the story dominating sports headlines is that of NBA reject-turned-phenom Jeremy Lin.

Whether you’re a basketball fan or not, you can’t help but be captivated by the overnight sensation of an Ivy Leaguer who sleeps on a sofa every night after lighting up the likes of Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitski.

A guy no one had ever heard of has led his Knicks back from the grave, and the world is tuning in to watch them rocket into playoff contention.

The Kansas City Royals could use a Jeremy Lin.

Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and others didn’t fly under any radar. They didn’t arrive without fanfare. We all waited breathlessly for their arrival, then heaped unnatural expectations upon them. They are the hope for the future in KC, but they can’t do it alone.

Kansas City needs a Jeremy Lin if something magical is going to happen.

When I was a kid, 20-year-old Fernando Valenzuela came from out of nowhere to lead the Dodgers to a World Series win over the Yankees. “Fernandomania” rivaled “Linsanity” at its time. And the same could happen again at any moment. Could it happen in KC?

If it does, it won’t be Hosmer or Moustakas or Danny Duffy or even Mike Montgomery or Wil Myers shocking the world. It will have to be someone from whom nothing is expected.

I see just the candidate in pitcher Luis Mendoza.

The 28-year-old Mendoza has been waived twice and traded twice (Lin was only cut twice), and he’s labored the last six years at the Double and Triple-A levels of the minors. (Heck, Lin only spent part of a year in the NBA’s Developmental League).

But before you write off Mendoza’s chances, take a look at what he did last year. While KC’s pitching staff was scuffling along, Mendoza posted a sterling 2.18 ERA, going 12-5 in Omaha.

When he finally got a chance in KC, Mendoza was nothing short of Lin-like. Two starts, two wins. A 1.23 ERA.

Sure he’s been too prone to surrender walks. And sure he’s not been a strikeout artist at any level All the more reason to believe he could catch lightning in a bottle.

This spring the media will be focused on Aaron Crow’s conversion to starter and on newcomer Jonathan Sanchez. Duffy and Felipe Paulino will duke it out for rotation spots. Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi will have their every pitch scrutinized.

But if KC is to have a little Linsanity of its own this year, my bet is it will come from Luis Mendoza.

The Cardinals have plenty of heroes to thank for their late charge into playoff contention. Albert Pujols‘ .388/.463/.626 slash line since August 11th. Jamie Garcia’s dominance since August 25th. And so on. One of the unsung heroes of this season has been Yadier Molina. Molina has had a down year defensively but has made up for it with a career year at the plate.

During Thursday’s game Molina knocked in his 62nd and 63rd runs on the year, the latter setting a new personal best for RBI in a season. Since RBI are more a measure of how well the hitters ahead of you in the order get themselves into scoring position, let’s also look at his OPS+. Molina has posted a 121 OPS+ this season, his best by 21 points, and fourth on the club among those with 450+ PA, behind the usual subjects (Lance Berkman (169), Pujols (156), Matt Holliday (154)). A big part of that has been newfound power – his 13 HR this season is almost double his previous high (7, in 2008).

His batting average is also up, sitting right at .300 going into yesterday. That is a bounce-back from the .263 he posted in 2010, and in line with the two seasons before that (.293 and .300, respectively, for 2009/2008). Sometimes when a player’s batting average ticks up we see a corresponding increase in Batting Average on Balls In Play, indicating the player is having a little better luck than other hitters. Not so with Molina – his BABIP in 2011 is .307. Yes that is the second highest he’s ever posted, but not out of line with his last 5 seasons, where it hovered between .281 and .310.

So what has changed? Well, his ground ball rate is down and his fly ball rate is up as compared to his two previous seasons. He is getting more loft on the ball, meaning he is driving the ball better. Both rates are right where they were in 2007, his previous best season. It appears he has re-discovered what he did well at the plate 4 years ago, with excellent results.

Molina’s year also puts him on the short list of current catchers who can hit. His wRC+ 0f 117 is almost identical to Miguel Montero‘s (119), the cleanup hitter for the pending NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks. His fWAR of 3.7 places him in a virtual dead heat with Carlos Santana of Minnesota (3.7), Brian McCann (3.8), and Matt Weiters of Baltimore (4.0), three guys who came into the league with well-deserved reputations for superior offense.

It’s been a long time since St Louis had a catcher who put up this kind of offensive season. Since 1901, only 6 Cardinals have played 130 games or more at catcher and posted an OPS+ of 110 0r better. Molina is the first to do it since Darrell Porter in 1983. The other 4 names are a who’s who of great Cardinal Catchers: Ted Simmons, who did it six times; Tim McCarver, Bob O’Farrell, and Frank Snyder.

A lineup featuring Berkman, Pujols, and Holliday is imposing enough. Having a threat from behind the plate is a welcome luxury. Yadier Molina is having a fantastic year with the stick. We would be remiss if we did not acknowledge it.

Mike Metzger is a life-long Cardinals fan still with his fingers crossed in San Diego. He also blogs about the Padres. Follow him on Twitter.

“Same old Royals.” “Another pointless September.” “Time to trade off our stars.” Those are the statements that you’ll hear from casual Royals fans every fall. Pessimism is normally at an all-time high, everyone is more focused on football, and nobody cares about making it out to Kauffman for a “meaningless” baseball game.

Things have been different this time around.

The hope and optimism surrounding “The K” during the current homestand hasn’t been higher since 2003 (the Royals last winning season). Fans are finally believing that the Royals are close to being a legitimate contender.

Right now, the Royals are 20 games under .500, 22.5 games back in the division, and way past being eliminated from playoff contention. It’s hard to see any fanbase in professional sports rallying behind a team with those numbers, but Royals fans did it during the past week. Kauffman Stadium attendance from last week (September 13^th-18^th) averaged out to 24,621 people per game. Last season during the same time period, attendance was at 16,952 people per game. The 2010 Royals had about the same record as the 2011 Royals (2010: 61-91, 2011:67-87) and both teams were eliminated from the playoffs right around the start of September.

The difference this year is that the players are still having a ton of fun on the diamond, which makes going to games much more exciting. The players on the Royals’ current roster genuinely love playing the game. Not only do they love playing the game, but they love winning, and they love winning together. They are a group of kids who really like each other and want to bring a winning team to Kansas City.

Does anyone think that Jose Guillen really liked playing for the Royals? How about Mike Jacobs? Ross Gload?

Doubtful.

And has any Royals team since 2003 been this excited about winning games in September?

Doubtful.

Has any Royals team had as much camaraderie and chemistry as this team besides in the ‘70’s or ‘80’s?

Highly doubtful.

Everyone on the roster is excited to be playing for this team in Kansas City. There’s no doubt that they are disappointed about how this season went, but you can sense that they are all anxious for 2012 to be here. The excitement on the field has brought excitement to the seats inside Kauffman Stadium. Expect the excitement to multiply in 2012.

Every year, the group known as the Baseball Bloggers Alliance places their ballots for various awards to be announced at the end of the season. This year, it is my pleasure to place the votes for the St. Louis Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance in the category of Manager Of The Year. The award is officially titled The Connie Mack Award.

The National League this year has shown some diversity amongst the teams. Highly competitive races came down to the last few weeks of the season, highlighted by three teams and the men that guided them. In my mind, the top three managers to be considered for the award are listed here….

3 – Dusty Baker, Cincinnati Reds
I know, as a Cardinal person I should not even utter his name. However, all things considered, I think you have to acknowledge the job that Baker did in Cincinnati this season with a team that most did not expect to even finish above .500. I am personally not a fan of his management style, and honestly should probably put Walt Jocketty’s name in parenthesis behind Baker’s, but all things considered he took a team that should not have been in playoff contention and turned them into division champions.

The only thing keeping Baker from climbing higher into this list is the team’s collapse down the stretch. A team that had every opportunity to bury the Cardinals and seal the division very early on, the Reds resembled the World Series Champion Cardinals from 2006 that were known for “backing into” the playoffs. The Reds capitalized more in the month of September from the Cardinals inability to win then they did from their ability to do so.

2 – Brad Mills, Houston Astros
Speaking of teams that everyone picked to lose, the Houston Astros were picked by many to challenge the Pirates for the opposite end of the division race. A very young team that had some financial problems with veteran stars, the Astros were viewed as a franchise that was in turmoil. Locked into rebuilding with very talented youngsters, the team was mired in the back end of contracts to star players that needed to be replaced.

Brad Mills took a young group of players, watched talent like Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman be traded away, and somehow put together a season that suggests that the Astros could be competing sooner rather than later for the division title. A team that most picked to finish dead last was capable of posting a record that ended a mere 10 games below .500. Mills was rewarded with an extension to his contract, showing faith in his ability to lead the players through the remainder of the rebuilding process. With Mills at the helm, the rest of the National League Central should take notice of the Houston Astros.

1 – Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
There are teams that overachieved and there are teams that went above and beyond. Bochy took a Giants team that many picked to be contenders, but not playoff ready, and has led them into the playoffs and past future Hall Of Fame manager Bobby Cox’s Atlanta Braves and into the National League Championship Series to take on baseball’s latest dynasty, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Most pundits did not think the Giants were quite “there” at the begining of this season. But behind Bochy’s leadership, the team leveraged great play from rookie cornerstones and solid play from veteran leaders to put themselves in a postion to steal the Postseason away from everyone involved.

There you have it, my picks for the Connie Mack Award for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

St Louis will play its last series of the 2010 season this weekend against the Colorado Rockies. Both teams were eliminated from playoff contention Tuesday night.

For both teams, their seasons are similar. Early on it looked like Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez was a lock for the Cy Young, and would make a serious run at 30 victories, especially after opening the season 15-1. He’s 4-7 since. Carlos Gonzalez has been hyped as a potential MVP Candidate, and made a run at the Triple Crown, despite some serious difference in his home and road productivity (.386/.431/.749 home; .293/.327/.459 road). Troy Tulowitzki has had a memorable September (15 HR, 40 RBI). And the Rockies put together another late season surge, winning 13 of 15 to start September and climb within a game of the NL West lead.

St Louis? They have a Cy Young Candidate too in Adam Wainwright and perennial MVP candidate in Albert Pujols. The club got a searingly hot July from Jon Jay,and had one final hot streak in August, when they a swept Cincinnati to take over first place.

Just when both teams seemed ready to pull away and take the division, they met their Waterloos on the road. St Louis’ infamous 2-8 mid-August road trip through Pittsburgh, Washington, and Houston, right after that series sweep, doomed them. Colorado dropped 4 straight on the road in mid-September following the 13-2 stretch, including a devastating sweep in Arizona, then lost 2 of 3 at home last weekend to the Giants.

With nothing left to play for, the teams are making plans for next year. St Louis has already shut down Jamie Garcia for the season. Wainwright’s season is now over thanks to a strained right forearm muscle. Yadier Molina is already at home resting his knees. The last few games have seen an infusion of youth in the Cardinal lineup. Take last night, where Pujols and Matt Holliday were the only position players at least 30 years old.

1. Tyler Greene
2. Daniel Descalso
3. Pujols
4. Holliday
5. Allen Craig
6. Cody Rasmus
7. Matt Pagnozzi
8. Brendan Ryan

Colorado will probably do something similar in their lineup, playing Chris Nelson more at second, possibly starting Jonathan Hererra a lot at third, perhaps giving Chris Iannetta the lion’s share of games behind the plate the rest of the way. Figure this series will have a Spring Training feel to it out in the field as the clubs move on to 2011.

The projected pitching match ups,however, include the regular suspects:

Thursday 30 Sept – Jason Hammel vs Jake Westbrook. Hammel has not started against the Cardinals in his career. Westbrook will have a final opportunity to impress the Cardinal Front Office heading into the off-season. He probably does not need to do anything more; he has been fantastic in his 2 months with the Cardinals. I for one would like to see him return for 2011, if the price is right.

Friday 1 Oct – Jorge De La Rosa vs Chris Carpenter. De La Rosa has largely been the same pitcher this season (ERA+ 109) as last (ERA+ 107) when he won 16 games. More data on how fickle the win is. He also spent an extended amount of time on the DL in 2010. He has won his last 3 starts against the Cardinals. Carpenter has already started 34 games this season, the third time in his career he’s done so. With 226 IP on a 35-year old repaired arm, I would not be surprised if he missed this start. St Louis has lost his last 2 starts against the Rockies.

Saturday 2 Oct – Jimenez vs Kyle Lohse. Jimenez will make this start (barring an heretofore unreported injury), and it will be his third try to win his 20th game. No Colorado Rockie has ever won 20 games in a season. No Rockie pitcher had ever won 18 games until now. Jimenez beat the Cardinals in July, and is 2-2 career against them. Lohse continues trying to regain his form following his mid-season arm surgery. He has struggled since returning to the rotation in August (in 37.2 IP, 7 HR allowed, 13 BB, 2.069 WHIP). Lohse is due a $3 million raise in 2011, and all his money is guaranteed. He has not beaten Colorado as a Cardinal.

Sunday 3 Oct – Jeff Francis vs Jeff Suppan. It’s been a tough year for Francis as he tries to return from major arm surgery. He missed the first 6 weeks of the season while finishing his rehab, then missed an additional month in August/September. Interestingly, Colorado has only lost one game to the Cardinals when Francis starts – and that was way back in 2006. A bittersweet season will end with a bittersweet start for Jeff Suppan. This will probably be his last start as a Cardinal (his contract includes a 2011 Option for $12.75 million but has a $2 million buyout). St Louis has lost 10 of his 14 starts. I do not envision him returning.

At 35 this might be his last major league start ever. He’s been hit around a little bit (OPS against of .831), and although his ERA is better by 3 runs as a Cardinal his xFIP is almost identical to what it was in Milwaukee (5.04 before, 5.23 now). If this is the end of the line for Soup, thanks for the memories (especially 2006 NLCS Game 7) and best of luck in your future.

With that we will close the book on the 2010 season. Oh, what might have been for both franchises.