Barring a complete collapse, it looks as though the Kansas City Royals will not finish in fourth or fifth place for the first time in ten years and the second in fifteen. They need to play one game over .500 in their next 32 to finish with their best record since 2003. They should comfortably surrender their lowest run total since 1995 while posting an improvement in wins for the third consecutive season, something they haven’t done since 1992. All of this begs the question, is this progress?

In terms of “The Process”, you would have to say that yes, this is progress. The Royals will head into 2013 with nearly an entire line up of players that are either homegrown or traded for while they were still unknown quantities. Nearly all of these players will either be locked up under a club-friendly deals or not yet eligible for free agency. The only real exception is Jeff Francoeur, who will most likely get one last chance to start in right field and prove exactly who he is toDaytonMoore…at least until after next year’s Super Two deadline. Francoeur and Bruce Chen will both be back in 2013 at a combined cost of $12 million. Still, what Moore has always told us is that once you have a majority of the team composed of your guys, under contract on your terms, then you can have the resources to go out and spend free agent money on one or two pieces where you need them. Mr. Moore, you have exactly that heading into 2013 with a club that I’m certain you’ll sell to us as improving, so where do the Royals need pieces?

In terms of position players there are two clear weaknesses in the Royals lineup. One of them we’ve already mentioned, right field, will be manned by Jeff Francoeur, and has a clear succession plan in Wil Myers. In other words, there is absolutely no reason to go add a right fielder. The second, and more glaring, weakness is at second base. Johnny Giavotella would have to hit a ton to make up for his defense, and to this point he hasn’t shown the ability to do that in the majors. Chris Getz, the likely starter in 2013, would have to be a gold glover to make up for his bat and he is not. The most prominent free agent at second base is Robinson Cano…even if the Royals had all the money in the world; I don’t think he’s coming toKansas Cityunder any circumstances. There are no other guaranteed upgrades over Getz available on the free agent market so it seems unlikely the Royals will add a major contract for a position player in 2013.

Obviously, the Royals major hole is in the rotation. In fact, their two biggest holes are in the rotation. They have a nice collection of 4 and 5 starters, but no one that figures to be a 3 or better in 2013. With a bullpen that is set and a lineup that isn’t changing, this is where all of Dayton Moore’s attention should be focused this offseason and he’s said as much. There is no telling how much money Moorehas to spend, but let’s just use $20 million. Why that number? That’s the prudent estimate of profit for the club in 2012, and you know David Glass has always said he’s just looking to break even. There are a lot of Royals fans dreaming about Zack Greinke, not only do I think that would be a pipe dream, it would also be ill-advised. Greinke will cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million, best case scenario about 100% of the Royals free agent budget. One pitcher with a 2.3 WAR does not make this pitching staff that much better. The Royals need to go out and get two pitchers at approximately $10 million a piece. I’m not going to get into who they should or shouldn’t be until the offseason, but the Royals should have them all scouted and should go hard after the two pitchers in that range they think best fit this rotation. Just throwing out two names off the top of my head, a rotation of Shaun Marcum-Jeremy Guthrie-Bruce Chen-Mendoza/Hochevar-Odorizzi/Smith could be a competitive rotation. Even better, the club would have the possibility of Danny Duffy or Felipe Paulino in July. That would be progress. But back to the question, is this progress? 2012? It is, but like everything else involving the Royals, it won’t mean a thing unless Glass and Moore take advantage of it.

I am not a real statistician, I just play one on the internet. I chose my college partially because they did not require me to take any math courses. But when it comes to baseball, the numbers come alive for me, and it is fun to dig into the advanced stuff that others do and see what I can make of it. I also have zero scouting eye and have no reason to make judgments based on what I’ve seen with my eyes. But hey, I’ve watched a ton of Royals games the last few years, so I do have some opinions. Ill informed opinions are still opinions, right? With a huge grain of salt in hand, let’s dive in and see what, if anything, the numbers and my eyeballs can tell us about the defense of the 2011 Royals.

Team

Ultimate zone rating (UZR) and defensive runs saved (DRS) both agree that the team as a whole has been totally OK. UZR has the team at -1.7 runs below average while DRS says -7 runs. That’s good for 8th (UZR) and 9th (DRS) in the AL. The team ranked either 13th or 14th in the league in both measures in 2009 and 2010, so they show fairly significant improvement. That matches what I have seen. I might rate the 2011 team as slightly above average instead of slightly below, but maybe that is a result of lowered expectations after watching terrible defensive teams the previous two seasons. Either way, the defense seems to have done no great harm nor been a major boon.

Catcher

Quantifying catcher defense is so murky that UZR and DRS do not even attempt it. I like this method, which at last check in July showed Brayan Pena as +1.7 runs above average (RAA) and Matt Treanor at -1.7. To my eyes, I would expect those numbers to be reversed. Matt Treanor was a fantastic surprise this year, and I was disappointed to see him go. He seemed to actually do the things that veteran catchers get credit for all the time but I usually can not see myself. As someone said this year, he did the things Jason Kendall was supposed to do and at a fraction of the cost. Pena has seemed passable to me behind the dish, and in general has done a good job blocking the plate, but then driven fans crazy with a couple of ugly brain farts when he seemed to try to block the plate from the next zip code. As another person of forgotten identity said, the issue on those plays did not seem to be guts but a lack of mechanics and athleticism. Moving forward, the only catcher that will really matter is Sal Perez. He burst onto the major league scene by picking off two runners in his debut. Scouts cannot believe their stopwatches after clocking his throw to second. If he can avoid injury, the Royals should have a real beast behind the plate for the foreseeable future.

1st Base

This is the one spot where the numbers really make you scratch your head. Every defensive metric indicates that Hosmer has been simply awful with the glove. Even those who buy fully into the newer metrics warn they are especially vulnerable to small sample size issues, so any numbers this early in Hosmer’s career are pretty worthless. It is still surprising that UZR rates him as the worst defensive 1B in the majors this year and DRS has his defense costing the team 17 runs below average. I don’t think anyone believes Hosmer has been that bad, but I will say he hasn’t looked entirely like the defensive wizard he was reputed to be. He has seemed good overall, but there have been several balls go by him I expected him to get. I imagine just a few of those dribbling past him has destroyed his range rating thanks to a small sample. It is also important to note that “scoops” are not figured into either UZR or DRS, and Hosmer has aided the team defense plenty with his digs in the dirt. As the old-timers used to say, he can really pick it. Hosmer should be a plus defender at first for years to come. I will be keeping a close eye on his defensive metrics to see if they continue to refute what most are seeing with their eyes. I expect they will start to normalize.

2nd Base

Just as the front office and the fan base do not seem to agree about Chris Getz‘s defense, UZR and DRS see him differently too. UZR rates him at 5.5 runs above average, good for sixth among 2nd base regulars. DRS is more in line with the fans I hear from: 1 RAA. Barely better than average. Regardless, it seemed clear to many whatever marginal advantage his glove may have brought was negated by his weak bat. The front office finally relented and replaced him as the regular with Johnny Giavotella, who, according to the organization, was the polar opposite: all bat, no glove. It is too early to come to any conclusions regarding Gio’s glove, but so far, he has looked perfectly fine to me, and made several highlight reel plays in the field. Manager Ned Yost continuing to insert Getz as a defensive replacement late in close games seems bizarre, partly because I am not sure Getz is even an improvement, but mostly because it is paramount at this point in the season to get Giavotella as much MLB experience as possible.

3rd Base

There were plenty concerns about Mike Moustakas‘s ability to play the field before his promotion, but so far, he has exceeded my expectations. He has an odd quirk of double clutching/not being able to grab the ball out of his glove too often, but hopefully that will decrease. UZR has him at +3 runs, DRS at -2. Either way: fine. Not an embarrassment like some were fearing. That is all he needs to do in the field. Anything more is gravy.

photo courtesy MindaHaas.net

Shortstop

Alcides Escobar played out of his mind defense during the first half, earning the nickname The Shortstop Jesus somewhere along the way. Ridiculous plays were the norm. He has quietly been less spectacular in the second half of the year. Not bad, just not as noticeable. The numbers back this up. Two months ago when I took a look at Escobar, he had 6.3 UZR and 10 DRS ratings, good for second in the majors in both categories among shortstops. His UZR has bumped up marginally to 7.4 since then, down to third in the league. DRS reflects a steep dropoff, knocking him all the way down to a current rating of 5 DRS, 12th best in MLB. There is no doubt Escobar is an excellent defensive shortstop, but his early season acrobatics was probably the peak of his abilities. If he falls off much from that level, and his bat remains non-existent, he will not even be an average overall player. Hopefully we will see more of the jaw-dropping Escobar than the merely good Escobar at short in the coming years.

Left Field

The highlight in just about every way this season has been Alex Gordon, and defense is no exception. I would not argue with you much if you said Escobar has been the more valuable fielder, but UZR and DRS both rate Gordon’s defense as more valuable, and I’m not going to argue with that either. Alex has the best LF UZR (8.8) and fifth best LF DRS (8). As others have observed, he plays the outfield like a third baseman, closing on balls in a flash and featuring a ridiculously strong and accurate arm. He has tracked down every ball you could ask him to, and set a new franchise record with 20 outfield assists. What a year.

Center Field

Melky Cabrera was in on the outfield assist spree earlier in the year, but as that has slowed down, his lack of range has emerged as more of a problem. He is a corner outfielder miscast in the center of the huge Kauffmaun Stadium outfield. UZR ranks him 18th out of 20 qualified center fielders at -9.9 runs. DRS is slightly kinder with a -6 rating. He has been the weakest link in an otherwise decent team defense. The arm seems fine, but he lacks the closing speed needed in a true center fielder. With Gordon and Jeff Francoeur sure bets to return to the corners next year, Royals brass will have to decide if they want to live with another year of Melky’s sub par defense in center or make the probable defensive upgrade by promoting Lorenzo Cain.

Right Field

Jeff Francoeur is somewhat like Melky – good arm, not so good range. That combo is of course hidden better in a corner. Plus, his arm is much better than Melky’s. Frenchy leads the majors in OF assists since his career began in 2005. The arm component in UZR, which takes into account runners not challenging his arm, rates his arm at a cumulative 53.7 RAA from 2005-11. The second best arm rating in that time is less than half that total (Alex Rios, 25.9). The arm is a sight to behold, which it has to be to make up for his unimpressive range. According to UZR, his arm alone has been worth 8.7 RAA this season, but his range has come at a cost of -8.4 RAA. Almost a wash; his overall UZR comes to half a run above average. DRS likes him slightly better at 5 RAA. Both measures put him about middle of the pack overall among right fielders.

With most or all of the current position players set to return in 2012, the outlook for next year’s defense is good. At worst it should not be a liability, and could turn into a real strength.

That seems to be the question lately on everyone’s mind. What do the Cardinals need to make a run at this season?

The one common theme I see out there seems to be confusion. No one is real sure what this team needs or what it will take to put things over the top. Fans say that the team needs to shake up the roster, but then complain when Ryan Ludwick gets traded. This team needs a table setter who can cause havoc at the top of the order, but fans are not ready to embrace Jon Jay. The team needs the veterans to step up and be leaders and, well, that leads us to our discussion today…

In Monday’s game against the Reds, the Cardinals took the field and prepared to play one of the biggest games put before this team this season. I will not say this game or series falls in a “must win” category, but winning the series and walking away with a tighter division race would definitely not hurt any fan’s feelings for sure. As Carpenter finished his warm up pitches and prepared to start the game, Brendan Ryan was not in position on the field. When he arrived, he then called timeout and exchanged his glove with one from the dugout, thus delaying the start of the inning further and disturbing the star pitcher’s rhythm.

After the bottom of the inning concluded and the Cardinals came into their dugout, ESPN cameras caught Carpenter leading Brendan Ryan down the corridor towards the clubhouse. While Carpenter was obscured from view, it was obvious that he was talking very sternly to the often distracted and playful Brendan Ryan. Ryan listened very intently, nodding occasionally, and the two emerged and went back to the game at hand.

Many fans saw this as over the top, flamboyant, “diva like” behavior from one of the team’s top stars. Talking with fans during the game through Twitter, I heard many voice their opinion about how it was wrong of Carpenter to do this and how it was a case of a star player putting his needs before that of the team. I am sorry, but I have to disagree.

First of all, I do not think we have anything to talk about if this is not a nationally televised game. With ESPN on hand, there are more cameras and more angles to capture the game. Due to this, the cameras caught the conversation that, in my opinion, was being conducted in an area that the players involved felt was private. This was not a manager and player coming to blows in the dugout for all to see. This was not the superstar player physically attacking the lackadaisical play of a mediocre teammate. This was a conversation had between a veteran and a young player in an area out of the public eye.

It is also important to note that Brendan Ryan, during all of his struggles, has consistently been on the filed during games that Chris Carpenter pitches. Becoming known around the Cardinal fan base as Carpenter’s “personal shortstop,” Ryan’s glove is highly valuable to the veteran groundball pitcher and has been said to have the complete support of Carpenter for a spot on the field during those games.

As fans we like to second guess our favorite players and managers. As writers, we like to dig for something more to talk about that gives us some controversy to discuss. Sometimes, however, we have to step back and realize we cannot have it both ways. If you think a roster shake up is what this team needs, then do not second guess the trading of a star outfielder. If you feel the team needs to run more, generate runs, and be more aggressive, expect the young, talented outfielder to get his chance. If you want to see someone on this teams step up and be the leader that it needs, do not be surprised when someone gets pulled aside and told to straighten up during important games.

Move along, folks, there is nothing to see here but a team that is starting to act like they want to win.