If there is one thing we know about Tony LaRussa, it is he likes to make decisions. And a lot of them. I can only imagine this guy at Olive Garden trying to navigate their “Taste of Italy”, poor waiter never stood a chance did he. Asking for more bread sticks when he should have switched to salad and sending back the lasagna for chicken parmesan while swapping out the Alfredo with his wife. Only to get home and lament with regret the soup that got away.

Tony’s managerial approach follows similar logic. Sure the decisions pay off from time to time and in most circles around baseball he is thought of as a “genius” and “master strategist.” However, often at the peril of his own team he cannot get out of his own way at times. His inability to sit on his hands and allow the natural course of things to play our around him is excruciating at times.

The point is not that TLR should not make moves, adjust his line-up or try to out think the other manager. The point…is that TLR is like a child with A.D.D. on a sugar rush who cannot sit still and leave well enough alone. His though process, that if he’s not making moves he’s not managing or giving his team the best chance to win is ludicrous. A move for the sake of a move or a decision for the sake of a decision is just that and counter-productive at best.

Can you just hear his inner conversations, “if I know that he knows that I know that he thinks that I think if he has the pitcher spot come up he’ll take out Hamels.”….”yeah, I’ll IBB the 0-for the series catcher and take my chances with a gassed out pitcher already extended against their pinch-hitter. It’s so crazy it has to work.” Ball game. You just out managed yourself Tony…well done.

Here are a few decisions made in this NLDS whose effects were felt almost immediately still impact the series as game 5 nears. Starting Chris Carpenter on three days rest; letting Garcia bat with runners at 2^nd & 3^rd with 2 out in the 6^th, Starting David Freese over Daniel Descalso in game 4 (ESPN reported that it was a game time decision not to go with Descalso over Freese) and sitting Theriot in favor of Schumaker in game 4.

Granted there have been numerous others to examine. But as this is a blog post and not a dissertation on chaos theory I thought it best to narrow the selection.

Starting Carpenter on 3 days rest for the 1^st time in his career after just throwing a complete game in Houston raised a few eyebrows. Rightfully so, had never tried it before and had just thrown 106 pitches. This was clearly done to avoid having Garcia start on the road in Philly, which is understood. However it should have been Edwin Jackson in game 2, bring back Carp for game 3 on normal rest and then you have Garcia rested and ready at home for a game 4.

You are still ensuring Carp gets his turn to make sure the series goes four and you avoid starting Garcia on the road. Those that argue the fact that now the Cardinals get to use Carp twice and have him for the deciding game 5 are using faulty post hoc ergo propter hoc logic. Just because it worked out does not mean it was right. Because just a easily one can rationalize that starting Carp in game three could have wrapped up the series by giving the team a better chance to win in BOTH games 1 & 3.

On to the afore mentioned game 3. Most are focusing on TLR’s decision to issue the IBB to Philly catcher Carlos Ruiz. Yes, Ruiz has killed the Cardinals in the past. But the Cards are not Garcia, and it’s not as if Garcia has been the one pitching to Ruiz in every game. And besides Ruiz had been held hitless in the NLDS thus far. No this is about his decision to bat Garcia in the bottom of the 6^th with runners at 2^nd & 3^rd and two outs.

Up to this point Garcia had given TLR more than he could have hoped for through six innings. Scattering a few hits and no runs. Based on, well, the entire regular season Garcia struggles going beyond six innings and down the stretch even getting that deep into a game was not happening. Here you take the New England Patriots approach. It is better to let someone go too soon and get value rather than hold on a bit too long.

With Holliday, Schumaker and Chambers all available to hit this is where you use them. This was the turning point in the game. Allowing Garcia to bat forced TLR’s hand in the 7^th and was the first domino to fall leading to the Francisco PH home run.

Two big decision were made prior to game four and both worked out in the end. ESPN reported last night that TLR discussed sitting Freese in favor of Descalso at third base. Through three games Freese was hitting .167 in the NLDS with six strikeouts. TLR elected to stick with Freese and in paid off to the tune of a 2-3 game with 4 RBI, including what ended up being a game-winning 2-run home run. One of the few times TLR didn’t tinker and it paid off.

Unable to leave well enough alone for long. TLR did pull Freese for Descalso after the 6^th. This was surprising for two reasons. Freese was playing well defensively at third and had the game become tied or the Cardinals fallen behind you would not have Freese to bat in the 9^th.

The other major move was inserting Skip Schumaker into the starting line-up over Ryan Theriot. No stranger to the discontent of Cardinal fans Theriot came out swinging in the NLDS. Through three games he was 6 for 9 against Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Hardly giving TLR a reason to sit him. In addition to that neither Theriot nor Schumaker had match-up data one way or the other against Oswalt. Knowing better as he always does (sarcasm) TLR decided it was Skips turn. Chalk up another one for the skipper as Skip (see what I did there) went 2 for 3 with a run scored.

It has been an up and down, roller coaster ride of a season. So why would Cardinal fans expect the playoffs to be any different. There will undoubtedly be buttons to be pushed and decisions to be made on Friday. Here is to hoping TLR leaves the deciding game 5 and a berth in the NLCS in the hands of his players and out of his mind.

As always these are just my thoughts…keep on reading and you’ll get up to speed.

Derek is on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze and also writes for the Rams at RamsHerd.com

Also on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/SportsByWeeze

Now that the euphoria has subsided a little bit, it is time to take a look at the next team standing in St Louis’ way, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia finished the regular season with the best record in baseball. Their vaunted starting rotation performed as advertised, more than making up for their average offense. They are the odds-on favorite not only to win the National League, but the World Series. Let us take a closer look.

St Louis will face Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 220 K), Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 194 K), and Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, 238K) in the LDS. The best part of this rotation is the Cardinals faced Halladay and Hamels, and beat both, barely 2 weeks ago in Philly. The other starter, Lee , has faced St Louis twice this season. The Cardinals beat him in May, with Lee returning the favor in June. So their top three, who were a combined 50-25 this season, have all suffered a loss at the hands of these Cardinals this season. They’re good, but the Cardinals know they can defeat these three.

St Louis will counter with Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter, and Jamie Garcia for Game 4. Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 111K) beat Halladay on 19 September. That victory was his first over Philadelphia since 2008 and snapped a 3-game personal losing streak against the Phillies. Lohse has been the best Cardinal starter during their September surge. Jackson (5-2, 3.58 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 51K) gets a much deserved playoff start. He has allowed 3 or fewer runs in all but two of his starts since joining the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 191K) pitched St Louis to the playoffs with a dominating start against Houston, but the price is his unavailability until Game 3. In 19 starts since June 23 he is 10-2 with a 2.73 ERA.

The Cardinals are not grossly outclassed, but the statistically the Philly starters are better. Starting pitching advantage: Philadephia.

Statistically Philadelphia’s bullpen was better than St Louis’, but with a difference of less than 1 fWAR it is a minor difference. Philadelphia’s best 2 relievers are Ryan Madson (currently the closer) and Antonio Bastardo. Bastardo was pretty close to lights out for the first 2/3 of the season, but has faded noticeably down the stretch. Their bullpen will be bolstered with the presence of starters Roy Oswalt (although he could start Game 4) and Vance Worley. Michael Stutes has also seen significant work out of the Phillies bullpen.

St Louis remade their bullpen in the Colby Rasmus trade, and have turned a liability into a strength. Jason Motte comes in for high leverage situations late in games but is not the ‘closer’ per se. Kyle McClellan, Octavio Dotel, Mark ‘Scrabble’ Rzepczynski, and Arthur Rhodes will all see action out of the bullpen. This bullpen blew 2 of the last 7 games this season, but without them the Cardinals don’t close on a 23-8 tear.

Cardinal bullpen improvement since the trade deadline makes this a dead heat. Bullpen advantage: Even.

Offensively, Philadelphia boasts a formidable lineup of aging stars. Only trade deadline acquisition Hunter Pence is under 30. Still, one takes Philadelphia lightly at their own peril. They were the sixth best offense in the NL (12th overall) this season, again by fWAR. Shane Victorino had a career year hitting mostly out of the leadoff or #2 slot. St Louis’ ability to keep him in check will be a key to winning this series. Pence, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmie Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz all posted wRC+ of 106 or better. They are capable of scoring a lot of runs, but they don’t need to with the starting pitching they have.

The Cardinals field the most potent offense in the National League, anchored by Albert Pujols and the resurgent Lance Berkman. However this offense will not be the one Philadelphia saw two weeks ago. Matt Holliday is hurting, his status uncertain; he was to receive a cortisone shot for his ailing right hand. Rafael Furcal, a catalyst who hit 7 home runs after coming to St Louis, is probably out for the year with a hamstring injury. That’s the bad news. The good news is Allen Craig has stepped into Holliday’s shoes and capably replaced him, hitting .303/.329/.606 since August 25. St Louis will probably platoon at short, with Nick Punto, Ryan Theriot, and Tyler Greene seeing some time. Furcal’s defense was shaky down the stretch, so there won’t be a large drop off there, but there will be a big offensive drop.

Even without Holliday this lineup has not lost a beat. Offensive Advantage: St Louis.

Defense is the Phillie Achilles heel. Using Bill James’ Team Runs Saved as the metric, Philadelphia had the third-worst defense in the NL this season, grading below average at pitcher, catcher, first, left, and right, and exactly average at short. St Louis’ defense was below league average, but graded out 3 spots higher than Philadelphia. Their weakest positions are (worst to best) short, catcher, third, and second. The Cardinals were exactly average at first.

So basically the Phillies have the better infield, and the Cardinals have a better outfield. Defensive Advantage: Even.

Summary and Prediction

Does good pitching stop good hitting or good hitting stop good pitching? This series will be a case study. Good hitting stopped good pitching back in mid-September, but that series did not have the pressure this one will. Sure, the pressure was there for the Cardinals, but not for Philadelphia; they came in with a magic number of 1 and clinched with their lone win. Philadelphia will play at a higher level starting Saturday then they did back then.

That’s not to say the Cardinals should not bother to show up. There is no more confident team in the NL than St Louis as this post-season starts. They were all but eliminated from the post-season 5 weeks ago, yet here they are. The team is playing with house money and they know it. All the pressure in this series resides in the dugout and clubhouse of the team anointed as World Champions before spring training started. If any team can upset the Phillies, it is the Cardinals.

So long as Halladay does not no-hit them tomorrow. Cardinals in 4.

Mike Metzger is a life-long Cardinals fan currently based in San Diego. He blogs about the San Diego Padres, and you can follow him @metzgermg