I know it is hard to believe, but the Kansas City Royals have actually been a very competitive team for the last month and a half. Since starting 3-14 they’ve gone 19-15, against a much tougher stretch of competition than they’re preparing to face. Even at that pace they’d finish the season with 84 victories at the end of the year. In theory, if they do continue playing the same level of baseball, they’ll win many more than 84 games. Why? Take a look at the winning percentages for the Royals past and future opponents:

Last 34 games (19-15 stretch):  .521

Rest of June: .457

That’s a huge difference in quality of opponent. Even after another disastrous start by Luke Hochevar against the worst offense in the American League, the Royals still find themselves in prime position to climb back to .500 by the end of June. Their next 10 games are against teams with losing records, before they face the fading Cardinals on back-to-back weekends. The opponent in between those weekend match ups is none other than the Houston Astros, picked by many to be the worst team in baseball in 2012. In fact, the only formidable opponents the Royals face in June are the Tampa Bay Rays, and they get three against the hapless Twins right after that. All told that leaves 25 games remaining in June, with 22 against teams you could argue the Royals are equal with or better than. Now of course, that only puts the club at .500, does that really even matter?

Yes, when you consider…

-          Salvador Perez is playing in extended spring training games and expected to be back with the club in the next month

-          Jonathan Sanchez is dominating at AAA, looking like his DL stint may have actually helped

-          Wil Myers continues to force the Royals hand, and could be playing center field in Kansas City by the beginning of July

-          Their July schedule is not much tougher as their July opponents currently have a .466 winning percentage

The only good thing about all of the Royals injuries is that they will have a mid season injection of talent without having to trade any of their best prospects. Perez makes this team considerably better, so does Sanchez if he can harness 2010. Does this team look like a contender with those two? Not even close, unless Eric Hosmer wakes up and Wil Myers comes up and mashes. That is the thing about this club, as young as they are, for many of them we are just waiting for the light bulb to switch on. Hosmer could put together a June that almost completely erases April and May. In fact against the teams he is about to face, I would almost be more surprised if he didn’t.

Okay, I’ll pause the hyperbole and get back to math. If the Royals win at a .558 clip against opponents with a .521 winning %, they should in theory play .625 (17-10) ball based on the winning % of their June opponents and .619 (16-9) in July. That would put the Royals at 55-48 on August 1. From August 1^st through the end of the year, the Royals play 29 games against the Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago White Sox. At the very least they would control their own destiny; they may even be in the driver’s seat.

As Royals fans we’ve been promised a competitive team “in the future” since before the Allard Baird era, and for the most part, the club has failed to deliver. In my opinion, that future starts right now…in June…it’s our time.

It has been 43 years since the St. Louis Cardinals appeared in consecutive World Series.  One has to go back before the advent of divisional play to find the last instance:  1967-68.  The Cardinals have won the National League in back-to-back years twice before, 1930-31, and 1942-44.  The Cardinals have never won the Fall Classic in consecutive years; the 1942 and 1944 titles are the closest they’ve ever come to accomplishing that.

Winning two straight titles is hard for teams not named the New York Yankees, and especially hard for National League franchises.  The first team to do so – the 1907-1908 Chicago Cubs – has not won a World Series since.  A historical oddity, sure, but let’s not miss a chance to tweak Cub fans. The list of NL franchises who have successfully defended their title is short and sweet.

• Chicago Cubs (successful defense in 1908)
• New York Giants (successful defense in 1922)
• Cincinnati Reds (successful defense in 1976)

That’s it.  A National League franchise has successfully defended its title once since the end of the Dead Ball Era.  St Louis will have to defy 9o years of history to join the Cincinnati Reds as the only NL team to accomplish the feat since Babe Ruth played.

That’s not the only challenge, of course – the Cardinals have to win the NL first to play for the World Title.  For the purposes of this discussion, we will assume St Louis qualifies for the playoffs either as a wild card or the NL Central champs.  As you might expect, it is considerably more difficult to win the National League today under the current post-season format.  During the 65 seasons when the league’s best record played in the World Series, a team won back-to-back NL titles 17 times.  Said another way, a defending champ had a 1 in 4 chance of a successful league title defense.  Since the playoff system was instituted, only 11% of World Series included an NL participant who was there the previous year (5 of 42).  The AL percentages are higher across the board, thanks to some team called the Yankees, but even in the AL there has been a drop in repeats since 1968.

Does this mean St Louis will not repeat?  No; each season is unique, just like each team is unique.  The loss of Albert Pujols weakened the middle of the order, but the acquisition of Carlos Beltran should replace most of that lost offense.  The return of Adam Wainwright makes the 2012 rotation far stronger than the 2011 version.  St Louis has as good a chance of repeating as World Champs as any recent team.  The hardest part won’t just be winning the Series; it will be getting there in the first place to defend their title.

Mike Metzger is a baseball writer based in San Diego. He also blogs about the Padres. Follow him on Twitter.

In Baseball, everyone knows that offense wins innings; defense wins games, and pitching wins championships. However, what about the man behind the mask? The catcher is part of both defense and pitching. From working with the pitching staff on a personal and professional basis, to calling every pitch, the catcher makes sure that pitching stays on course, and if things go awry, they right the ship and reset the course. Catching is one of the most overlooked positions in Baseball, and it is the most crucial to a championship ring.

So where does Yadier Molina fit into all of this? He is considered the best of the current generation at the catching position, and his defensive skills are almost impeccable. At 28, his fielding percentage over the past eight seasons is .993 behind the plate, and his average caught stealing percentage is 44 percent. This season, he had the fewest stolen base attempts against him in the majors at 46. His arm, his defensive skills, and his awareness behind the plate are outstanding, and it is present almost every game. Granted, his caught stealing percentage was only 29 percent this past season, but when the league average is around 20 percent, his numbers have come down from godlike to above average. In 2005, he threw out 64 percent of would be base stealers, one of the highest percentages ever. His skills are so refined behind the plate, that when his knee was bothering him in the World Series, he sat back on one knee, and just picked bouncing balls like a shortstop. His defensive play is what puts him in the same class with greats like Thurman Munson, Yogi Berra, and Ivan Rodriguez.

What is impressive is even though his defensive numbers are so stellar; his hitting has become another great weapon in his arsenal He batted .305 last season, with 14 home runs, 32 doubles, and 65 RBI, all career bests. His offense continues to shine, and on the biggest stage, his average gets even better. In his 3 World Series appearances, he is batting .341 with 4 doubles and 10 RBI. Since his rookie season in 2004, his bat continues to improve, and how he will grow and improve next season is continuing to build up.

The numbers might give a good look at how good a player is on the field, but they never show the intangibles. The trust, the respect, and the presence felt by teammates in the clubhouse and on the field can never be measured by statistics. Last season, when you would watch a game, you might see Molina look to the dugout twice in a game for a possible defensive shift. Other than those occasional glances, he was the leader on the field. He called every pitch, he called every snap-throw, and he made sure the defense knew how to play each hitter. When he deals with a struggling pitcher, his tone and reaction is different depending on the pitcher. With guys like Lance Lynn and Chris Carpenter, he is a calm, soothing presence that comes out to relax the pitcher and make sure he is free of tension before the next pitch. With others, like Jason Motte, he has to pump them up and get the adrenaline flowing for them to focus and put everything behind the ball. These are some things that cannot be measured with mathematics, and they are some of the biggest focal points of being a battery mate as a catcher.

With these amazing numbers and intangible qualities, how do you not build a team around a catcher with all five tools? With Albert Pujols gone, it seems like the pressure will be on the shoulders of veteran leaders like Molina, however. Rising stars like David Freese and Allen Craig, along with new Cardinals Outfielder Carlos Beltran; Molina’s job becomes a lot easier at the plate. His defensive play will always be a cornerstone of the Cardinals organization, and it is the how aggressive his nature is. He is one of the many faces of the Cardinals, and he will continue to grow to one of the big names in baseball.

Barring any trades, the Kansas City Royals’ position players are set for next year. Here’s what that will look like:

Catcher-Salvador Perez
1st Base-Eric Hosmer
2nd Base-Johnny Giavotella
3rd Base-Mike Moustakas
Shortstop-Alcides Escobar
Left Field-Alex Gordon
Center Field-Lorenzo Cain
Right Field-Jeff Francoeur
Designated Hitter-Billy Butler

No surprises here.

The major things that are yet to be determined are the batting order and rotation.

Perhaps the biggest question for the batting order is: Do the Royals want to keep Alex Gordon in the leadoff spot or try someone new?

It would be really difficult for Ned Yost to move Alex Gordon out of the leadoff spot. Last year, Gordon showed that he has the type of power (23 HR’s, 45 Doubles, 87 RBI’s, .502 OPS) to be an everyday 3 or 4 hitter. However, the Royalshave enough power in the middle of the lineup already with Butler, Hosmer, Francoeur, Moustakas, and even Perez. What Kansas City lacks is a guy other than Gordon who can consistently get on base and make something happen from the top spot in the lineup.

Giavotella, Cain, and possibly even Escobar seem like the only other candidates to take over Gordon’s spot. Giavotella and Escobar’s On Base Percentages (.273 and .290, respectively) aren’t quite good enough to legitimately make a case for them, and neither have established themselves as legitimate, top of the lineup hitters. Cain, on the other hand, was a 3-6 hole hitter in Omaha last year and showed improvement in the power department. His skills (yet to be seen for a full MLB season) seem to translate more into a number 2 or 6 type hitter.

Unless someone breaks out in Spring Training, Gordon should undoubtedly stay put in the leadoff spot. The trio listed above will make for an interesting competition for who should be the number 2 hitter.

Next week, we’ll look at the rotation’s endless possibilities.

Royals Tweet of the Week

Winter meetings started today!! Ready for some Baseball again!! #Royals #2012playoffrun

December 4, 2011 6:33 pm via txtReplyRetweetFavorite

@mdog4229

Matthew Shelp

Last week, the Philadelphia Phillies shocked the baseball world by signing Cliff Lee. What made the signing so shocking was that it was thought to have become a two-team race for the southpaw. The New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers were in a bidding war. It was assumed that by the end of the week, Cliff Lee would be with one of those teams, and, more than likely, with the New York Yankees.

But Lee decided to sign with Philadelphia and join, arguably, one of the best rotations in MLB history. The signing of Lee had an impact on the Cardinals fortunes in 2011. The goal of winning the NL pennant and the World Series became a lot tougher. But the day after the signing a rumor began to swirl that could have even bigger ramifications for the 2011 Cardinals.

Though there was never any official statement purporting so, there was talk the New York Yankees might be willing to trade for Chris Carpenter. An arm like Carpenter might help ease the blow from missing out on Cliff Lee. He could, in theory, be a great compliment to Sabathia at the top of the Yankees rotation. In return, the Cardinals could possibly acquire some young talent that could help either the lineup or the rotation in years to come. And, most importantly, they could free up some cash for Albert.

There are, of course, an up side and a down side to a trade of this magnitude. Let’s start with the down side of moving Chris Carpenter out of St. Louis.

Anyone who is a Cardinals fan knows how much Chris Carpenter means to the team. He is the quintessential veteran “ace”. He is the foundation of the rotation. When Carpenter is at his best, the Cardinals are in the thick of the pennant race.

Since joining the Cardinals staff in 2003, Carpenter has posted a staggering record of 84 wins and 33 losses. This puts him in the top 3 of all time Cardinals Win-Loss percentages. In the seven years he has pitched for the Cardinals, he has posted an ERA of 2.98. He has pitched 17 complete games, including 8 shut outs.

In those seven years, Carpenter has been a Cy Young candidate three times. In 2006 he finished third in voting. In 2009 he finished second, right in front of St. Louis Cardinals co-ace Adam Wainright. His best finish, of course, was in 2005 when he finished first in Cy Young voting with a 21-5 record and a 2.83 ERA.

The value of Carpenter goes well beyond the numbers and awards, though. His leadership on the staff has been irreplaceable. He has acted as mentor for others on the pitching staff. And, as we saw last year, he has been a clubhouse leader when others have lacked focus.

The impact Carpenter has had on the team is undeniable. With him, the Cardinals have competed for and won division titles, NL pennants, and World Series. Without him, the Cardinals have floundered in mediocrity.

But, as 2010 showed, nothing lasts forever. The numbers put up by Carpenter last year were disappointing by his standards. In 2010, Carpenter posted a 16-9 record with a 3.22 ERA. That is certainly nothing to scoff at. But, more disturbingly, Carpenter gave up 21 home runs in 2010. That is in comparison to the 7 he gave up in ALL of 2009. Even more alarming is number the earned runs Carpenter gave up in 2010, 84. That’s 36 more than the 49 he gave up in 2009.

Again, these numbers are not horrible. But they are not the numbers we are use to Chris Carpenter, the super ace, posting. He is certainly capable of bouncing back. He has posted less than stellar numbers in the past, only to come back stronger the next year.

But, Carpenter has one thing going against him he did not have in the past; his age. During the 2011 season Carpenter will turn 36. He is getting close to that unfriendly age of 40. Which doesn’t bode well because he also has had issues with durability in the past. He missed the end of the 2004 season with a nerve problem in his right biceps. More damaging was when he missed most, if not all, of the 2007 and 2008 seasons with elbow issues.

When considering trading Carpenter, perhaps the most tempting benefit is the amount of money the Cardinals could free up. In 2011 Carpenter is set to make $15 million. That is the kind of money that is desperately needed to help keep the Albert Pujols from leaving via free agency.

That being said, there are no guarantees the Cardinals will be able to resign Albert Pujols. And with that possibility, perhaps it is wiser to go “all in” with what you have now. The division rival, Milwaukee Brewers, have certainly done so.

The Brewers just shipped a handful of young and talented players to the Royals in order to obtain a proven ace in Zack Greinke. With that kind of arm in the division the Cardinals are going to need all the help they can get in their starting rotation. And unless the Cardinals fall out of the race early, I suspect Chris Carpenter will remain a Cardinal.

Hopefully, helping push the Cardinals to the post season once again.