The St. Louis Cardinals will open the season with the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 1.  Last season, the group of bloggers known as the United Cardinal Bloggers (UCB) pulled together to provide fans with an easy way to preview each series the club would participate in.  The collaborative effort became known as The Bird’s Eye View.

The UCB has once again drawn their collective talents to bring fans this newsletter service at the beginning of each series.  People who register for The Bird’s Eye View will receive an email on the first day of each series providing an in depth look at pitching matchups, key components and emerging news for the Cardinals and their opponents in the series.

The writers here at i70baseball are proud members of the UCB and will contribute to The Birds Eye View periodically throughout 2013.  We invite all of our readers to sign up for this email report by filling out the form located here.  Don’t worry, your email address will only be used to send you a copy of The Bird’s Eye View before each series the Cardinals play and will not be used for any other purposes or promotions.

The shoes that have to be filled at third base in Kansas City are rather large and may never be filled by any Kansas City Royal’s player ever.  Right now Mike Moustakas, and his “Moooooooose” call seem to be filling that hole quite well. is definitely beginning to look like he could be a good following to the great third basemen of the Royal’s past, George Brett. Ever since Brett retired the team has been trying to fill a hole at third base that just would not fill up all the way.  Many have tried and many have been good enough to be average to a little above average at best but none have shown the promise that Moustakas has shown this earlier in his career.  All throughout his time in the organization people have known that he would hit and he would hit well but it is the little things that make him a potential All Star third basemen.

After going through his struggles at the Major League level, like he showed at every level when he was first promoted to that level, Moustakas have done nothing but improved every part of his game. Hitting was always at a premium for Moustakas at every level but every one always said that his defense would have to improve to become a great player at the big level.  Over the off-season Moustakas worked tirelessly and continues to work tirelessly everyday to improve his defense which by all accounts this season has looked spectacular.  When the Royals acquired shortstop Alcides Escobar from the Brewers in the Zack Greinke trade, a lot of fans and people in the organization thought he was brought in to help out the future left side of the infield since he is such a superb defender and Moustakas was just average.  But now that the defense of Moustakas has improved, not only could the two end up being the best defensive tandem on the left side of the infield in the league but now that they are both seeming to find their stride at the plate it could end up being the best left side of the infield overall. Moustakas has seemed to improve not only in his accuracy of his throws but also in his range.  Not being the quickest footed guy in the game he has to find ways to get the angle on balls hit to him so that he can make some of the plays that he has made this season.  So now with the addition of his defense it seems that hitters will never want to hit the ball to the left side against the Royals.

No question that Moustakas struggled with the bat over the first part of his rookie season but as the season went on he stepped it up a ton and showed fans what they could be watching from him for a long time coming.  The thing that everyone thought at the beginning of this season was that he would be the young star to hit his sophomore slump yet he is the one in talks of playing for the American League in the summer classic at Kauffman Stadium.  With the struggles that Eric Hosmer has shown this season, the fact that Moustakas has stepped up to the plate and just raked and stepped into the three spot in the lineup that was supposed to be filled by Hosmer is one of the reasons that the team finds themselves right in the thick of things in the Central Division.

The Royals have seemed to found themselves a little bit as a team over the past month with a winning June.  Moustakas must continue to play the way he has played this season for the Royals to have success. With the leadership of Billy Butler over the whole team, Moustakas has to step up as the leader of the young guys on this team.  Kind of like the vice president.  And the biggest thing that a leader can do is produce and so far this season the Moose has produces.

If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that Kansas City Royals first basemen, Eric Hosmer, was more of a sure out than Chris Getz was at the plate, I would have not only called you crazy but down right out of your mind.  But, like a lot of things in life times do come that people are wrong.

Now I was on the side of people that thought Hosmer would go through a little bit of a sophomore slump but nothing to this magnitude.  It just does not make sense to me anymore why he is slumping so bad for so long.  I mean even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile but he is not even close.  For the first few weeks of the season, everyone was saying that he was hitting into hard outs and that it would come around but lately all he has done is roll over pitches and ground out to the right side of the infield.  The problem that I had with this analysis was the fact that he was still getting out.  Now when a guy hits the ball hard in his first at bat of a game you might say that he is on this guy and has a chance to do something later on in the game but Hosmer is not doing that.  His power throughout a game diminishes as the night goes on.  And the bigger problem with the “Atom” ball argument is the fact that he is not doing that anymore. He is getting to far in front of his swing with his hands, making his timing way off therefore, grounding out in most of his at bats.

Now, that being said, I do believe that Hosmer will come around this season I just think that that will have to be accomplished in a way that fans nor Hosmer want it to.  Either he has to become the first option off of the bench to pinch hit or he needs to be sent down to AAA.  There are two problems with sitting him for a couple of games.  One, he will not be getting enough at bats to maybe swing himself out of a slump and two, when he does get those at bats he is going to press even more than he may already be pressing.  Now the other side of things would be to send him down.  This could work one of two ways in Omaha.  It could either send his confidence straight to the basement or it could get his confidence back in his swing and back into major league like form.  The likelihood of the Royals actually sending Hosmer down are pretty slim.  Nothing says it is not “Our Time” like sending one of the cornerstones of your future team down to the minors to figure things out.  Or they could take their medicine and send him down and say to not only Hosmer but to current and future Royals that the ceiling a player has is not the most important thing in the game.  Baseball, like I say all of the time, is all about results and results are not coming out of Hosmer at all right now.

This all being said, I am not too down on the guy because I look at the player that he may be one day and want it for him just as much as any other fan.  No one wants to watch a guy fail time after time at the plate.  But if this continues over the next week or two the Royals are going to have a big decision on their hands when it comes to putting Hosmer in the lineup night in and night out.

Despite all of the attention the Kansas City Royals are receiving for their young offensive stars, most analysts still say that the starting pitching will be what holds the Royals back this year.  But is this group getting the credit it deserves?

There is an immense amount of optimism surrounding the 2012 Kansas City Royals.  For any fan under the age of 20, this sort of optimism is unprecedented in their lifetime.  For the rest of us, it is hard to remember the last time there was this much excitement around the club.   However, there is one part of aspect of this year’s Royals edition that most consider to be a huge question mark, and that is the starting pitching.  People outside the organization look at the Royals pitching staff and don’t see a proven Ace. This is a valid point.  But the Royals, for the first time in a good number of years, should have 5 guys (or more) that they can throw out there that can not only miss bats, but give them a chance to win every time out.  Here’s a look at the projected Royals starting rotation and what we might expect from this group in 2012:

Projected Opening Day Starter-Luke Hochevar:

Last season was a mixed bag for Hochevar.  The first half was mostly the usual erratic Luke Hochevar that Royals fans had become used to seeing pitch for the previous 3 years.  He would start a game strong, sometimes even dominant.  Then he would get himself into a jam and things would completely unravel from there.  It was maddening.  Was it in his head?  Could he not pitch effectively out of the stretch?  It wasn’t until Ned Yost began forcing Hochevar to pitch out of these situations that a change became evident.  The results in the 2nd half demonstrated that change.

First the good:

-Hochevar was 2 innings away from pitching 200 innings, finishing with 198, the most of his career to this point

-At 4.68, Hochevar finished with his lowest ERA as a full-time pitcher in the majors

-His 1.283 WHIP was down significantly from 2010, and was the best he has posted as a full-time starter

Now, the better:

-In his 12 starts after the All-Star Break, Hochevar’s ERA was 3.91

-His strikeout rate was also way up.  For the year, Hoch had a 5.8k/9 SO rate. However, after the break, it was 7.7

-His WHIP after the All-Star Break was a stellar 1.12

-After the break, Hochevar averaged 6.11 innings per start

If we assume Hochever picks up where he left off in the 2nd half of the season, we should expect something along these lines:

Innings: 201

ERA: 3.90

WHIP: 1.15

K: 172

Those numbers might not be Ace type of numbers, but that is a damn good #2 starter on a championship team, which is what Hochevar’s potential was always thought to be.  He is also 28 years old, in what should be the prime of his career.

Projected #2 starter-Jonathan Sanchez:

Sanchez is probably the most electrifying pitcher to wear a Royals uniform since Zack Greinke.  If anyone in the 2012 Royals rotation has the potential, when at his best, to become the ace of the staff, it is likely Sanchez.  However, he has always struggled with control, and last year battled injuries.  He will be 29 years old for the duration of the season and is probably the biggest wild-card in the rotation.  When at his best, he is a high strikeout, low hit-rate, high walk-rate pitcher.  If we split the difference between what would be a successful season, or a disappointing season for Sanchez, it might look something like this:

Innings: 175

ERA: 4.10

WHIP: 1.35

K: 185

To put it into perspective, in 2010, Zack Greinke’s last season with the Royals, he posted these numbers:

Innings: 220

ERA: 4.17

WHIP: 1.245

K: 181

Sanchez has the potential to do much more than the numbers listed above.  But if he gives the Royals something along those lines, that will make him a solid contributor to the rotation.

Projected #3 starter-Bruce Chen:

Chen would probably be the biggest candidate for regression out of this group, mainly due to his age.  He will turn 35 midway through the season.    He has also spent a significant amount of time on the Disabled List the last two seasons, which has cut into his Innings Pitched #’s and is definite cause for concern. I have a feeling that Dayton Moore might like a mulligan on the decision to give Chen a 2 year deal for $9,000,000.  If you assume Chen hits the DL for his normal stint in 2012, with a bit of regression, it is reasonable to expect his 2012 numbers to look like this:

Innings: 145

ERA: 3.97

WHIP: 1.40

K: 95

If Chen can make it 145 innings, and put up these type of numbers, he probably slots as more of a #5 starter on a playoff team.  If we ever again have to say that Bruce Chen was the best pitcher on the staff, that will mean things have gone terribly wrong.

Projected #4 starter-Felipe Paulino:

Why the Royals were trying to act as if there was any question as to whether Paulino would be in the rotation at the beginning of the season, is still a mystery.  At least Ned Yost is now conceding that Paulino has a “leg up” in the competition for the rotation spot.  What Paulino did last year is likely the most under-appreciated part of the Royals 2011 campaign.  Paulino will be 29 in October, so he is another who is in what should be the prime of his career.  Despite a paltry win total, he posted an excellent 8.6K/9 innings.  His 4.11 ERA and his 1.372 WHIP should both come down in 2012, as the BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) stats show that an abnormal # of balls dropped for hits last year.  Paulino started 20 games last year, and averaged just over 6 innings per start.  If he is able to start 32 games, that should put him right around 200 innings for the season.  Call me optimistic, but this is what I expect from Paulino this season, with the potential for more:

Innings: 198

ERA: 3.80

WHIP: 1.25

K: 190

This would make Paulino another solid #2-like starter for a championship team, which he is certainly capable of becoming.  If only the Royals could find a #1 starter (hint, hint)

Projected #5 starter-Danny Duffy

It is looking more and more likely that the #5 spot in the rotation will end up going to Duffy, though this is not a certainty yet. Duffy just turned 23 in December, so he has youth on his side.  As a rookie in 2011, he showed promise, but also struggled to go deep into ballgames and pitch his way out of jams.  There was one game though, last year, in which Duffy gave Royals fans a taste of what he could become.  That was on June 19 against the St. Louis Cardinals, when Duffy struck out 9 batters in 3 2/3 innings.  This game showed the reasons both why Duffy has such promise, and why he still had a little ways to go.  While he only walked 1 batter, he gave up 6 hits and let his pitch count get all the way up to 90 before being pulled with 2 outs in the 4th.  If Duffy can adjust his approach this year to not always pitching for the strikeout, learning how to finish a batters off, and pitching more efficiently, he is the guy who could step up and be the ace of this staff.  I expect Duffy to take a huge step forward this year, and for his numbers to look something like this:

Innings: 170

ERA: 3.65

WHIP: 1.35

K: 132

It would make sense that the Royals would continue to be careful with Duffy.  If “The Process” is to come to fruition, Danny Duffy is going to need to be a big part of that.  If he can put up numbers close to those above, that will put him in great position for a true “breakout” campaign in 2013.

While this Royals team is missing the true “ace” starter that they had in Zack Greinke, one could argue that top to bottom, this is the best rotation the Royals have had in over a decade.  While injuries could play a role in this, there is also more starting pitching depth in the organization than at any other time in recent history.  Whether it’s Luis Mendoza, Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery, Nate Adcock, or someone else, the Royals should be able to keep things afloat should one or more of these guys go down.   This group of starting pitchers will be one of the more interesting things to monitor as we get rolling in 2012.

How would you like to attend Opening Day in Kansas City or St. Louis?

If you did not notice, at the top of the page is a link for “Tickets“.  There, you can purchase tickets to any Cardinals or Royals games as well as get a pretty good judgement on average ticket prices, various vendors availability, and much more information in one convenient location.

As much as we here at i70baseball would love you to purchase tickets to Opening Day, our partners TiqIQ would love to give you tickets to Opening Day.  It is a fairly easy process.

Step 1: “Like” I-70 on Facebook
Step 2: “Like” TiqIQ on Facebook
Step 3: Post on TiqIQ’s wall, predicting the Cardinals or Royals batting average leader (minimum 50 at bats) for Spring Training games played in March.

Best of all, the more people that enter the contest, the better the tickets given away.  The value of the tickets will be equal to the number of people entering.  Get to clicking, liking, and posting on that wall and we will see you at Opening Day 2012.

Details are listed in the graphic below:

One of the crucial factors in the Royals quest to contend in the coming years is the bat of shortstop Alcides Escobar. The glove is clearly exceptional, so if he can complement it with a just a little hitting prowess, the Royals will be set at one of the premium positions. The question becomes just how much Escobar has to hit. Escobar himself told the Kansas City Star he feels he needs to have over a .280 average to be one of the best shortstops in the AL. “Baseball men” also talked in terms of batting average when telling Star writer Sam Mellinger how much Escobar has to hit, but we stat nerds can get more exact than that.

photo by Minda Haas

To answer the question, you must first quantify what his defense is worth. Defensive metrics are notoriously inexact when compared to offensive ones, but with a large sample size, they can shed a lot of light on just how many runs above or below average a fielder allows. Between 2003—2010, the best shortstop in MLB by Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has prevented an average of 17.0 more runs than the average shortstop (RAA). Over the same time period, the metric Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) shows that the best shortstop prevented an average of 24.4 RAA. Here are the averages of the top five shortstops per year between 2003—2010:

Reasonable minds will differ on where Escobar might be expected to fall on those lists. In 2011, Escobar currently ranks second among shortstops in UZR (at 6.3) and tied for second in DRS (at 10). If he plays in 160 games this year, he is on pace to finish with a 12.3 UZR and a 20.5 DRS. It is impossible to know if those numbers reflect Escobar’s true defensive talent level, but they seem to match what people are seeing with their eyes. Projecting how many runs Escobar can be expected to prevent with his defense is not scientific. My guess is 15 RAA a year. It seems fair in that it puts him in rare company without getting crazy and expecting 20+ RAA year in and year out. If anything, 15 is a little optimistic, considering his career UZR per 160 games is only 3.9, but we will assume Escobar plays at the elite level of 15 RAA per year for this exercise.

Escobar can also be expected to add some value as a decent base runner. Fangraphs valued his base running in 2010 at 2.9 RAA. His career rate per 160 games is 2.5, which seems like a good number to use as his true talent level.

So. Plug in those 15 RAA on defense and 2.5 RAA running the bases into this handy WAR calculator (courtesy Jeff Zimmerman), adjust the league average wOBA down to .325 (it was .327 last season, and is .321 so far this year), assume 600 plate appearances, and you can get some answers about what Escobar’s overall value might be at different levels of offensive production.

First let’s get an idea of how much value the best shortstops provide. Here is the average fWAR the top ten MLB shortstops have posted over the last eight seasons (keeping in mind zero is replacement level and 2.0 is roughly average):

Now the payoff. This chart shows what Escobar has to wOBA, assuming my estimations of his defensive and base running values, to reach various benchmarks:

To answer the question, you have to decide what you want in Escobar. Want an average shortstop? He only needs to wOBA .278…which happens to very close to his career mark to date. I think Royals fans want a little more than an average shortstop, even if that would be an upgrade over most of the shortstops we have put up with over the last few decades. Want a nice 3 win player? Look for a wOBA close to .300. To be a top ten shortstop in the MLB, Escobar might need to wOBA .310.

Here is my answer: Escobar needs to wOBA at least .290. In my mind, that would make him a slightly above average shortstop in terms of overall worth, and I could live with that. I think he is easily capable of posting a .290 wOBA in the coming years. To get an idea of what kind of production is needed for a .290 wOBA, here is Jason Bartlett’s 2011 AVG/OBP/SLG line: .249/.317/.309. His wOBA is .289. It’s not asking for much. Given a few more years, his wOBA ceiling might go as high as .320, which could move him up into stud territory. So far in his young career, he has only hit enough to be a roughly average overall shortstop. If he can wOBA .290+ in the coming years, the Royals will really have a shortstop on their hands.

The thing about being underrated is that people’s expectations of your performance level is generally wrong. This could be for a variety of reasons:

• Unreasonable expectations
• Bias (ridiculous or not)
• Misinformed/uneducated opinion
• Pre-conceived notions about the player or team
• Not playing in huge television/media markets on the East Coast
• …etc.

It’s been my opinion for the last couple of years that the number one most underrated pitcher in all of baseball is Jered Weaver, of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. More on him later. The guy I want to talk about is Kyle Lohse, a guy who is having an outstanding year.

Kyle Lohse is having a career year with the Cardinals in 2011.

Kyle Lohse reported to spring training in mid-February, as he always does. But in a ridiculous display of control, he waited until April 4th to walk a batter. So all he did was pitch for a straight month before missing the plate 4 times to one batter. That’s control. He walked one batter in 7 innings in his 2011 season debut (April 4th). Did not walk a single batter in 8 innings on April 10th, he walked one batter in 7 ⅓ on April 15th, and on April 21st he walked 2 in his first complete game shutout of the year. On the 27th of April, he walked one Houston batter in 7 strong innings. April totals: 5 walks surrendered over 38 ⅓ innings pitched.

I realize that April is distant memory, but this is a sample of the Kyle Lohse (a finally healthy Kyle Lohse) that we’ve seen this season–clearly his best since the ‘08 campaign with the Cardinals.

Most players, managers, and others in baseball will tell you that they’d “rather be lucky than good”. I submit to you that Lohse has been rather unlucky at times this year, yet much much better than just “good”.

Consider his masterful performance on the 7th of May: 8 innings, scattering 6 hits, and surrendering only one run. Unfortunately, he took a tough loss in that game. (That was during a stretch where the Cardinals were spending 14 straight innings going hitless) So, no run support for him, and Lohse takes a hard luck loss after pitching his guts out! Then, take this week’s game versus the Philadelphia Phillies, when he faced off against Cliff Lee. (Who walked a career-high six batters his last time against the Cards, if I recall*) That game actually had some very incredible undertones, in terms of unusual pitching performances on both sides. Primarily, a second unlucky loss for Lohse. I spoke of his control earlier–in this game he pitched 8 innings without a walk or a strikeout (think he knows where the plate is?) You have to go back more than 12 years to find 3 similar occurrences, that’s only the 4th time it’s happened since May of 1999. What’s more amazing is that you have to go back another decade to May of 1989 to find the last time the same thing that happened to Lohse happened to someone else–throwing 8 innings without walking or striking out a batter, yet taking a loss (Mike Witt).

So, the 7-4 record is a bit misleading, 9-2 could easily be in its place at this point. What’s not misleading?

• His career-high 2.95 K/BB ratio
• Career-low 1.6 BB/9
• Career-low 7.6 H/9
• Career-low 1.029 WHIP
• Sub-3.00 ERA
• Wiith already 105 innings (on pace to set a new career high), his walk total for the season is still in the teens.

Toss in a complete game, and look at a few of the other things he’s accomplished, and it’s hard not to put Kyle Lohse near the top of the list, when it comes to underrated players. Heck, I’ll bet as a Cardinals fan, you weren’t even aware he’s had this good of a season**!

*Running late for deadline, feeling a bit lazy to fact-check, but that “sounded right”.
** Does not apply if your name is Bob Netherton

When the season started many Royals fans circled June 1st. June 1st is date that almost without a doubt means Mike Moustakas will arrive in Kansas City to stay. Some think he will save the franchise. Some (me) think these kind of people are crazy. This team is awful! They get rid of all their greats like Zack Greinke. Wait, they haven’t lost any of their 4 series yet? Oh that’s right this team is better than expected, WAY better.

Photo by Erika Lynn

If you have followed me on twitter for any time or made the mistake of defending Greinke to me at the stadium, you know I have no love loss for him. I think the trade made has been fabulous and suddenly the need for Moose to save the franchise is so necessary. That trade has been a critical part of this team being above .500 and leading the wild card. As long as the Royals continue to not lose a series this team will be in the mix for the central and people in Kansas City are going to get excited. If the Royals can come out of their next 5 series without a lost series they will get into May with an above .500 record and only a month from the magical June 1st date. Notice I don’t say the Royals have won all their series because that wouldn’t be true. The Royals are 2-0 in three-game series but settled for splits in their two, two-game series this year.

This has been one of the best starts for the Royals in recent memory and some of us are believing this could be for real, maybe a little too much. Now June 1st has changed. June 1st is now more about a date for many to really start believing this team has a shot instead of just about top prospects joining the team. April has changed June 1st from a big day for a lost season to a day when this team could be making a legit run.

Now with that being said, even if we go 9 for 9 with no lost series’ by May 1st there will still be a month for the team to collapse before June 1st but I hate that kind of thinking. Yes, I get it, we have a habit of sucking but why think that way? Many people want to find the negative in the team regardless of how good things are. Yes I know we went 18-11 at a point and finished a season under 70 wins. Yes I know we have several 100 loss seasons since we last saw the playoffs. Yes I know we blew a 7 game lead and missed the playoffs. To all of you I say: SO WHAT! Why not enjoy the good times. I am so glad to ride this train right now and see what this team is doing. This Royals team is at least a year ahead of schedule. They play with heart and soul and are FUN to watch. We may win .500 we may not but It’ll be fun to watch. IF we finish April above .500, it’ll completely change the expectations of June 1st. It may still be circled, it may still mean the arrival of Mike Moustakas but it may also mean the day this team takes on a face of legitimacy. This team jumped to 14 in some power rankings this last week. 12 teams make the playoffs, to be considered 14 means this team is legitimately a fringe playoff team. We aren’t New York. We have different expectations. We had expectations for great prospects to filter in this year. With a solid April we can switch those expectations to maybe just maybe we’ll be good June 1st and instead of filtering into a bad team those prospects can be needed pieces to add to a playoff push when many thought we’d lose 100. This team has surprised, it can continue to surprise and April wins bring May hopes into June legitimacy. Come on April! Be good to us! No losses in 9 series to open the year. Do this Royals. Do it for all of us. All of the Royal Nation. Lets stop being a joke and bring in some legit baseball!

Troy can be found on Twitter as KCRoyalman. He also can be heard Sundays from 7-8p at royalmanreport.com and here on i70baseball.com with Bill Ivie, Mondays 10p-11p