Tag Archive | "Payroll"

Breaking even with David Glass

By now I’m sure just about every Kansas City Royals fan has heard about Danny Parkins’ interview* with David Glass on the first day of All Star Weekend. Glass, of course, came off as aloof and utterly clueless as he ever has, and earned as much ire for the way he ended the interview as he did for anything he said. He sparked a Twitter debate amongst the fan base over who is more to blame, him or Dayton Moore. You know, exactly the type of thing you want to do as you begin to welcome all of baseball to your city for the first time in nearly 40 years.

* For a transcript of the interview, click here

While it was completely unprofessional for Glass to walk away from the microphone mid-interview, that really isn’t what bugged me about the whole debacle. It was this exchange here:

Parkins: What do you say to fans that wish you spend more on payroll for this team?

Glass: Uhh, Well, in a market this size you can spend a certain amount on payroll. You… You’re never going to be able to spend what the Yankees and the other big market teams can spend but our approach from the very beginning has been that we’re not looking to make money with the franchise we simply want to break even and if we have an if we have an opportunity to win we’ll step up and do whatever it takes to… to help us take that extra step. But for the most part all the money that we can generate we’ll spend on payroll and singing amateur players

We have heard this song and dance from Glass since he bought the team in 2000 and it has been the source of much debate. There are a lot of people that think professional sports owners should expect to operate at a loss, as if owning a professional team is a charity, I am not one of those people. However, I do feel like owners should at least be honest with the fans about their plan, and their motives…a look at the numbers show Glass has been far from honest.

According to Forbes annual MLB valuation, the Royals turned a profit of $10.3 million in 2011, their eighth consecutive season of profits and the eleventh out of twelve since Glass bought the team in 2000. What’s more, the team is now valued at $354 million dollars. While that may be modest in terms of the value of a professional franchise, it is $258 million more than Glass paid originally. Added to the income the Royals generated over the last 13 years, it brings a net gain of $332 million in 12 years on a $96 million investment.

To put that in perspective, if Glass had taken that $96 million back in the year 2000 and invested it, he would have had to earn 13.27% for twelve years in a row to bring in the type of money this club has for him. Does that sound like breaking even to you?

What makes everything so much worse is that Glass has turned this profit while fielding one of the worst teams in the history of baseball. In his 12+ years as owner the Royals are 847-1179 (.418). Before he took over they were 2471-2411 (.506) all-time. That’s the difference between averaging 82 wins a year and 68. But it’s getting better lately right? Um, Forbes projects 2012 as the most profitable year of the Glass era, with the team earning a whopping $28.5 million in income. This for a team that was less than 6 games out of first for a good part of June after three of its best pitchers had Tommy John surgery. How much different would this team look if Glass had signed C.J. Wilson for 5 years and $85 million dollars? He could have done that and still cleared more than $10 million in profit!

The fact is that Mr. Glass has not only tarnished, but nearly destroyed the legacy that Ewing Kauffman left with the Kansas City Royals, profited handsomely from it, and lied through his teeth to his customers as he’s done it. Glass purchased a respected franchise with a World Championship and a history of winning more than losing. He has turned it into a cash cow that doubles as the laughingstock of baseball. What can we do about it? Nothing, as evidenced by this exchange from the aforementioned interview:

Parkins: You would never consider selling the team?

Glass: No.

Parkins: What do you say to fans who would like you to sell the team?

Glass: Uhh, yeah, I’m sorry.

Sorry…I could not have said it better myself. A sorry excuse for an owner…a sorry steward of the Kauffman legacy…but one hell of a businessman.

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To Buy or Not To Buy?

The Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline is still a couple of months away, but the St. Louis Cardinals have to be contemplating the direction this 2012 season will take. And the way things have gone so far, it may not be an easy decision.

It is fair to say there is no way the Cardinals will be sellers, even with the absurd rash of injuries they have endured. A team that sells is a team that has no hope to make it to the postseason and a few expensive, desirable players that are nearing the end of a contract. This does not describe the Cards in any way. While they may have a handful of big contracts due to come off the books at the end of this season, it does not appear like they are contracts the team would be able to move without eating significant money and obtaining an upgrade at the same time. Plus, the Cardinals are still in second place in a weak division—far from out of it.

The Chicago Cubs are already 10 games out of first and are well under .500 after a lengthy losing streak last week. But they’re in full rebuild mode, and everyone knows it. They are sellers. The same goes for the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins. These teams need to shed payroll, build prospects, and plan for contention years down the road. The Cardinals are still good enough to win now, and are positioned to win in the near future as well.

So will the Cards be buyers at the deadline? That’s where the tough call comes in. They do have needs: bullpen depth, starting pitching that can eat innings, veteran bench help, stability at second base and center field. But they have a problem: many of those holes can be filled by guys they already have on their roster; unfortunately those guys are currently on the disabled list.

This isn’t a newsflash to anyone who has been paying attention. The Cards’ DL looks like their active roster, and their active roster looks like their Triple A roster.

And therein lies the problem: Do the Cardinals stand pat and bet on injured players not only returning to the lineup but also returning to form and contributing to a team committed to winning now? Or do they try to acquire talent (at the expense of prospects, mind you) to keep the team up in the near-term, and deal with extra players if and when they have to? Let’s not forget the calendar just flipped to June. There’s no way this team has seen the last of the injury bug. If Matt Holliday or Rafael Furcal or Yadier Molina goes down, this team is screwed…with a capital F.

Things were a lot different last year. When dealing with ineffectiveness—such as the Cards did with Ryan Franklin, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, et al.—and knowing they had depth, moving guys like Colby Rasmus to acquire the role players needed for success was easier. But the Cardinals are short on depth right now. The depth is in the starting lineup. And the minor leagues are nearly tapped, at least of guys who are close enough to ready for the big leagues. Who could they possibly move at this point?

Players will be available come July but the Cards must be sensible in their dealings. The injuries this year have been of epic proportions. Maybe karma has come to collect after an otherworldly 2011. Or maybe this is just a test, like 10.5 games out in late August was. Hope the Cardinals studied this year as well as they did then.

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A Look Back At The Worst Royals Team Of All Time

In the last 15 years, the Kansas City Royals have put some pretty pathetic teams on the field. As some time has passed since some of these historically inept Royals teams have come and gone, it is interesting to take a look back at the worst of them all, the 2005 version of the Royals.

Having the benefit of perspective, it really is astonishing to think that anyone in the organization expected that team to do anything other than suck really bad.

The 2005 Royals were entering the season coming off of a 104 loss season, their second 100 loss season in 3 years. And as hard as it is to believe now, up to that point, those were the Royals’ only 100 loss seasons in franchise history. Little did anyone know, that was just the beginning of a stretch of some of the most disgracefully inept (borderline insulting) brand of baseball anyone would ever witness. In order to fully appreciate the level of stink that graced Kauffman Stadium 81 times in the summer of 2005, we must first take a quick look back at 2004:

The 2004 Royals came into the season with some glimmer of hope, as crazy as it seems now. They had just completed a 2003 season that saw them lead the division most of the year and remain in contention into September. The Royals felt that if they only could carry that positive momentum into 2004, and add a few key pieces, that they would be ready to contend again. Enter Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago and a slightly higher payroll. Clearly this approach was miscalculated at best, and delusional at worst. Nonetheless, it represented a somewhat honest attempt at fielding a winning team for the first time in quite some time, which was refreshing in its own way.

As soon as the next off-season hit, it was like Royals ownership and management immediately wanted to get the message out that since they went for it last year and it failed miserably, that it would be a cold day in hell before they would ever try anything like that again. Come April 4, 2005, Royals fans who took off work early and spent their hard-earned money to come out to Kauffman Stadium for Opening Day, were therefore treated to this opening day lineup:

David DeJesus-CF, Ruben Gotay-2B, Mike Sweeney-1B, Calvin Pickering-DH, Matt Stairs-RF, Angel Berroa-SS, Terrence Long-LF, John Buck-C, Mark Teahen-3B, Jose Lima-SP

Not shockingly, the Royals were beaten 11-2 by the Tigers in their first of 106 losses that season. The 2005 Royals would start the season 5-9 before going on a 9 game losing streak to fall to 5-18. They would eventually fall to 8-25, before Manager Tony Pena decided he had enough and quit. Interim manager Bob Schaefer got in on the fun, going 5-12 before Buddy Bell was brought in as the permanent replacement for Pena. In most seasons, a 9 game losing streak would be far and away the low point in the season. Not for this team…not even close. They would go on to treat their fans to losing streaks of 5, 5, 8, and 19 games before going into just standard Royals Stink Mode in late August. To put it further into perspective, that 19 game losing streak saw their loss total rise from 63 to 82 before their win total rose from 38 to 39.

The passage of time allows us to look back at seasons like 2005 and find the humor in some ways. If Project 2012 can come to fruition and the Royals are fielding championship caliber teams for years to come, the 2005 season can then become nothing more than a hilarious footnote in Royals history.

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What Hurts The Most: History Will Remember Pujols As An Angel

Courtesy of 7th Inning Sketch

It wasn’t until Saturday afternoon when I snapped out of a complete state of denial. Thursday morning, Albert Pujols became a member of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I had accepted that. But what I also accepted was that this was OK because the player Cardinal Nation so affectionately referred to as “The Mang” was already regressing from the player he once was. Albert isn’t in full-blown decline, but his numbers have been trending down over the past 3 or 4 seasons. In 2008, he hit .357… and each year since his average has declined. In 2011, he hit .299. The same goes for his power numbers: In 2009, he had 47 HRs and 135 RBIs. Those categories each decline over the past 2 seasons, down to 37 HRs and 99 RBIs in 2011. I just knew that paying Pujols more than $200 million dollars would cripple the Cardinals’ payroll and the team’s chances of contending over the course of his contract.

I told myself I didn’t want to see Pujols hit his 500th, 600th, and 700th home runs in Cardinal red if it meant that team wouldn’t be contending. I told myself the McGwire years were overrated, and that winning was much more fun than watching a sub-.500 team with a heavy hitter’s home run quest as the main attraction. My mind says all of these things are still true.

But my heart says I’m wrong.

Something changed as I watched Albert Pujols’ be officially introduced as a member of the Angels organization Saturday. As he gleefully and somewhat nervously buttoned the buttons on his fresh, new home white Angels Jersey and heard him speak about being a member of a new team, I realized something: This was not a temporary breakup from St. Louis… this was a divorce.

It kills me to say this, but barring a career ending injury or early retirement, history will remember Albert Pujols as an Angel. He will spend the next 10 seasons in Anaheim finishing out his Hall of Fame career. During that time, he will more than like hit his 500th, 600th, and 700th home runs. There is a chance he will even break Barry Bonds’ career home run record of 762. To do that, he’d need to average just over 31 home runs per season over the course of his contract. Albert has never hit fewer than 32 in a season thus far. Considering he is one of the fiercest competitors ever, there is a pretty good chance the Angels will win multiple World Series championships with Pujols in the heart of their lineup. I mean think about it. St. Louis is the 6th smallest market in all of major league baseball, and never eclipsed the top 10 in team payroll during his 11 season in Cardinal red. But despite that, Pujols led the Cardinals to 7 playoff appearances, 5 trips to the NLCS, 3 trips to the World Series, and 2 World Championships… so I’m thinkin’ with a team in baseball’s 2nd largest market that’s always in the top 10 in team payroll, Pujols and the Angels are going to have no problem winning at least a couple of championships over the next decade. In other words, he’ll be able to match or exceed many of his accomplishments in St. Louis, and will be hitting historic milestones in Los Angeles along the way.

Now let me ask you this: Do you think of Barry Bonds as a Pirate or a Giant? Do you think of Babe Ruth as a Red Sock or a Yankee? To a lesser degree, is Jim Edmonds going to be remembered as an Angel or a Cardinal? It’s really hard to swallow, but I think Albert is going to be remembered as an Angel.

Greg also writes for KSPR out of Springfield, Missouri. He recently took a look at where the Cardinals and Pujols need to go from here. You can read that article by clicking here.

Los Angeles owner, Arte Moreno offered Albert what’s being referred to as a “personal services” contract for when he retires. It assures him some sort of a job with the Angels organization for the decade following his historic $254 million contract. So for a minimum of 20 years, Pujols will be an ambassador for the Los Angeles Angels. That means in 2026, when he enters the baseball Hall of Fame, he’ll still be an employee of the Angels organization. Would he really enter the hall with the STL emblem on his cap? After 15 years, the Angels will be his new and final baseball family. Like I said, this is a divorce.

On Opening Day in St. Louis, there will always be Budweiser Clydesdales. Until the day they die, there will always be Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Ozzie Smith, Bruce Sutter, and Stan “the man” Musial. There will be fathers and grandfathers telling the youngest members of their families about all those great players. There will be stories of clutch-hits, unbelievable comebacks, and World Championships.

But will Albert Pujols be there? Will he take those well-deserved annual victory laps around Busch Stadium? Will he be there to spark our memories… so that the next generation of Cardinals’ fans can hear about the time he saved a season and silenced a city by taking Brad Lidge deep? About the time hit three home runs in a single World Series game? I’m afraid the answer is “no”… and that, more than anything else, is what hurts the most.

Drop by 7th Inning Sketch for more great sports cartoons.

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Could Oquendo Find Solace Within The Division

The Cardinals shocked most everyone by hiring Mike Matheny as the manager for the 2012 season. Many thought Jose Oquendo was the heir apparent to the throne.

To Oquendo’s credit, the alleged snub to the position did not deter him from returning to the Cardinals as their third base coach. For how long is a completely different question.

The Houston Astros officially announced the dismissal of the team’s president, TAl Smith, and general manager, Ed Wade. What has been left unclear is how the field manager and coach positions will be handled. Many within the organization feel that it may be left up to the new general manager.

Jose Oquendo has often been thought of as the next manager of the St. Louis Cardinals. Over the past few seasons he has been interviewed for various vacant positions in Major League Baseball. Though it has not been clear as to why, he has not to my knowledge received a second interview for any position. It is thought within the industry that Oquendo was simply preparing himself for the position in St. Louis and, while thankful for the interview, was not interested in pursuing the opportunities further.

Oquendo has served as the manager for the Puerto Rico team in the two installations of the World Baseball Classic. Heralded for his work there with both established veterans and young players, it propelled Oquendo’s name to the top of many managerial lists. His continued work within the country during the major league off season keeps his name being talked about as a coach ready to make the jump.

While there have been some openings in baseball this year, very few line up for a coach like Oquendo the way the Astros’ position, should it become vacant, does. It is a young ball club that will most likely be searching for a manager to grow with them. The payroll and expectations will be kept low for the next few seasons and a manager that can work with the youth of the farm system to help develop them into the future of the franchise will become paramount.

The toughest decision to come for the Astros may be where their future lies. With a pending move to the American League, the manager will need to be very flexible and capable of running a team utilizing National League rules one season and American League rules the following. A young manager, in terms of experience managing, would fit that requirement as well. The drawback for Oquendo in that sense would be his tenure being completely National League based.

Many fans assumed, hoped and dreamed of “The Secret Weapon” managing the St. Louis Cardinals. With the appointment of Mike Matheny, that time may well have passed. I for one believe he deserves a chance in Major League Baseball and Houston may provide the best opportunity of all.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

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Season Is Over…But Not Lost

Heading into Tuesday night’s matchup with the Brewers the Cardinals had 28 games remaining. There is a menu of options for how this club can approach the rest of the schedule. Whichever approach is taken will say a lot about this club and the direction management is looking to go in 2012.

Puma

Tony LaRussa and John Mozeliak can stick with the status quo and finish out the season. Management can field the offers that are already coming and will come their way, shipping off performing veterans for young talent and draft picks. TLR can play up the idea that he is smarter than everyone mixing and matching lineups to his hearts delight. Or Mo can convince him that what’s in the best interest of the club is to put out the young talent after the September call ups and see what the future holds.

These are only a handful of I’m sure the endless number of possibilities being talked about behind closed doors. But my best guess is these are the ones most seriously being considered. At some point Mozeliak is going to have to step out from Tony’s shadow and show himself to be in charge of the future of the Cardinals roster. Mozeliak’s future with the Cardinals is directly tied to the 2011 off season so why not get an early start and make your move.

If you are Mo pick your best option or put together a combo off the menu and pull the trigger. Either way, make a decision and stick to it. The Cardinals are out of the playoff hunt but the season is not lost. To not use these last five or so weeks to its fullest would be a disservice to the team and Cardinal Nation.

The approach is to take these 28 games and set up your off season shopping list. To start…assume Albert Pujols is not going to be a Cardinal in 2012…cue gasp. I know, I know…but I think the Cardinals are set up better for the future without Pujols taking roughly 30% of the payroll. Now if he decides seven years and $23 million per is enough then I might change my tune. But neither his agent Dan Lozano nor Pujols himself has indicated a willingness to do this.

First step is not trading Lance Berkman. As Derrick Goold points out in Tuesday’s column Berkman is potentially going be a Type A free agent this winter. Keeping him around for 2012 gives the Cardinals a potential 1B and part time outfielder for 2012. Losing him to another team brings you back at least one high draft pick, potentially two. Trading him now more than likely brings much less.

Step two is inserting Jason Motte as your closer for the rest of the season. If the 2011 season taught us one thing it is that the Cardinals are not set at closer. Franklin, Boggs, Sanchez and now Salas have had their chances and well…Salas has held on admirably but it is apparent he is not the long term answer. Give Motte the chances and knowledge that it is his role and his alone until October. See you have and maybe that is one item that can be crossed off the winter wish list.

Next is to get Allen Craig and Daniel Descalso as many innings and At Bat’s as possible. If this means putting them into a rotation with Freese, Schumaker, Furcal, Jay and Berkman then so be it. Freese and Jay are safely on the 2012 roster as is Berkman if he wants to stay. Schumaker is in limbo but the next 28 games are not going to change managements mind one way or another. And Furcal, while a nice pickup is a health risk and will not be back next season. And by not giving up much to get him you are not “wasting” him if he sits from time to time.

Craig and Descalso will be around in 2012 but their roles are not yet defined as are the expectations. Get them out there, move them around and see what you have. Try Craig at 2B and RF, move Descalso all around the left side of the infield.
Wherever you plug them in, do so, and gather the data for the off season.

This season is over, but it is not lost. Preparations for a playoff run in 2012 begin now. Your move Cardinals.

These are just my thoughts…keep on reading and you’ll get up to speed.

Derek is on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze and also writes for the Rams at RamsHerd.com

Also on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/SportsByWeeze

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That Was A Dream? Darn!

Do you ever have a dream that is so fantastic and real, that when you wake up you are very disappointed? That’s how it is for many of us lately when we think of the possibility of the Royals making a push to sign potential free agent Albert Pujols after the 2011 season.

There are several ways to look at it and I cannot think of a single negative for making the offer. Even if the offer is rejected the Royals should shout it from the rooftops and issue a press release. The buzz that just the offer would make would be a nice topic of conversation in offices, homes and ballparks all over the Midwest. The Glass family would be given credit for putting their money on the table for the best player in the game. For once you would not have the “what players are you going to surround him with?” negative responses. The Royals will have the players to build a team around him, for 2012 and beyond.

#5 then and #5 now

As long as I can remember, it hasn’t made any sense for his team to go after a top free agent. Most would not even consider talking to Kansas City since they have put such a horrible product on the field. The Royals could not even make offers without being laughed at. There are those that would laugh at this dream as well, but once you lay out your case, and they actually seriously think about it, they seem to not be as firm in their ridicule.

30 million dollars a year, for 10 years. During interviews from Florida on Thursday, Albert was saying that what is being reported is not even close to reality. What actually is reality when you are talking about numbers like that? It’s amazing what baseball has become isn’t it? Dream with me for a little bit. To make the payroll easier to make, and with the Royals youth being fairly low dollar the next 2-3 years, you could heavily front load the contract. Maybe like this, 3yrs@40, 4yrs@30 and 3yrs@20. This way, while the young players are at their lower salaries, you would pay the most to Pujols. Then when service times start hitting the salaries for players like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, Albert’s pay would be less. And if after 3-4 years, the grand experiment is not successful, the front loaded contract makes it easier to find a trade partner that would take on his contract.

I am sure you may have heard this topic or similar proposals. I even heard the ESPN Baseball Today podcast from 2/15 where Eric Karabell said that it’s looking like Pujols “…doesn’t want to come back to the Cardinals, it’s starting to look like he wants to be a Cub or a Royal or whatever else he wants to be.” It is nice to hear a Royals reference on ESPN, without negativity being the driving factor. Still the thought that amazes me is that the Royals are even in this position. They could actually consider making a run at the best player in the game. Also amazing is the fact that even for the skeptical observers it is hard to shoot down. Sure it can be done, who would have thought just 1 or 2 years ago that the Royals would even be close to being mentioned as a possible factor in the biggest sports story this spring.

Perhaps the smarter solution would be to go after some other top tier free agents next off season and maybe some top starting pitching. Among those who would be free agents after the 2011 season include Rich Harden, Roy Oswalt, or Scott Kazmir. Talk of pursuing one of the players from that list would also generate excitement, especially if the Royals’ highly touted prospects perform well for the organization during 2011. If the Royals, one year from now have not made a splash of some kind via free agency, I will be surprised. The fans are very hungry while some of them are still asleep to be honest. In this dream, they would wake up and begin to see that light at the end of the long dark tunnel which is October baseball in Kansas City.

For almost 20 years, the Royals DID have one of the best players in the game at the time in #5 George Brett. The town buzzed about the Royals. It bled Royal blue because Kansas City had a winner. The Royals were among the BEST. That number 5 made history here in Kansas City, who would have thought that Kansas City would perhaps have a chance at another “one of the best” in the game, another number 5?

What’s that you say? Oh yeah… I need to let the dog out. I hate mornings!

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Monday Morning Linkage: Rounding Up The Royals

With less than a month until the wonderful “Pitchers and Catchers Report” story, some news has started to trickle in. Our Royals friends around the Internet have chimed in with some observations this week.

As is becoming a custom here on I-70 during the off-season, we suggest you give some other sites and writers some love and drop by to read what they have to say.

One of our favorite podcasts out there belongs to the talented guys at Broken Bat Single, and you can check in on their latest edition by clicking here.

The Royals brought back one of the most effective pitchers for the 2010 version of the ball club, Bruce Chen. Michael over at Kings Of Kauffman takes a look at the deal he received over here.

Craig over at Royals Authority took the time to break down the payroll of the 2011 bunch that the Royals will run out there. He openly wonders How Low Will The Payroll Go.

The Royals took a chance on Zach Miner for the upcoming season, and the folks at Royally Speaking break down who he is and what to expect from the young man. Read their breakdown here.

Finally, the trustworty Rany On The Royals breaks down the two left-handers that were signed this past week. One new to the franchise and one returning, they will look to shore up the rotation.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

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Boys In Blue Baseball Factory

With October upon us, we are all reminded why we became baseball fans. When we were kids playing in the backyard, time would have to be called to let everyone know the magnitude of the situation… “Game Seven of the World Series, bottom of the 9th, bases loaded, down by one with two outs, guess who’s stepping to the plate?” Don’t act like you didn’t, I know you did. Seeing something not done on a big league field in 54 years, like Halladay’s premier postseason performance, escapes words. Instead it’s a feeling. A nirvana coursing through the body for a few moments until returned to Earth.

For many Royals fans, it’s the best ball they have seen all year. It’s also a glimpse into what could have been, or what is still to come. Kansas City wrapped up 2010 by hosting two series with Tampa and Minnesota. The Royals took four of seven games from the playoff contenders, nearly snagging a fifth in extra innings on the last day of play.

I can already hear the skeptics, it’s September, and they were already looking ahead to the playoffs. Longoria didn’t play; they didn’t throw their top pitchers, because they were setting up a playoff rotation.

I don’t play that game. Ask any big league ball player what they focus on, the positives. This is the answer to a man in MLB, I can guarantee it. In a game so ridden with failure, positive reinforcement is a never ending remedy. When guys start looking at the negatives, their careers die and go into the dark never to come back. The same is true with the fans and media surrounding an organization.

I have spoken briefly in previous posts about the organizational success of both Tampa and Minnesota. After the last week of the season, the comparisons have become more valid. With clubs so similar in market size and payroll, the question was posed to me by a guest writer for I-70, John Lofflin – What is the difference?

So I did a little digging and came up with some interesting things to look at in all facets of the game. If either team can survive the first three games, maybe you will notice some of this when watching the Rays or Twins play.

Offense

The Royals had the second highest team batting average in all of baseball (.274), hard to believe isn’t it? How can a team so proficient at getting base knocks manage only 67 wins? Despite having the second most hits in MLB, the Royals finished 20th in plating runs. They ranked 24th in walks (471), 19th in slugging (.399), 22nd in extra base-hits (431), 4th most twin killings (152), not to mention 26th in intentional passes, and 28th in hit by pitch. Pretty much the only way the Royals got on-base, was with a single.

Even with the second most hits, both the Rays and Twins produced more base runners throughout the season. The Royals totaled 2,065 base runners on the year (not including players reaching on an error). Out of those runners, they scored 676 runs or 32% of the time. The Rays converted base runners into runs at a 38% pace. 6% doesn’t seem like much. If KC were to score as many runs as the Rays (802) at their 32% conversion rate though, it would take an extra 435 base runners. Nearly three a game.

The Rays offense is the ‘Bizzaro World’ counterpart of the Royals. Tampa ranked 26th in batting average (.247), but third in runs (802). How can a team so bad at making contact score so many runs? They ranked 1st in the MLB in walks (672), 10th in extra base hits (492), first in sac flies (57), least double-plays hit into (92), and 1st in stolen bases (172) at an 80% clip. The numbers are the epitome of small ball. Can you imagine if they made contact like the Royals?

The Twins are usually marked with the ‘small-ball tag’ as well. Looking at the numbers, the truth begins to show through. Minnesota finished just behind KC in batting average (.273), but were 2nd in on-base percentage (.341), 7th in slugging (.442), 7th in extra base hits (501), 8th in walks (559), and 6th in runs (781). The Twins used their power and patience to pepper the ball across their new confines, Target Field. They posted the third highest doubles total and the second highest triples total.

Pitching

This is where the differences can be seen most significantly. There is really no silver lining in the Royals pitching performance of 2010. The Royals were outscored by 170 runs on the year. One of the biggest reasons why, their 551 walks, the 7th most in MLB. Piled on top of the walks were nearly ten hits a game, along with the second most stolen bags against (137). The most telling stat lies in the percentage of runners left on base, 67% (2nd worst). The Rays and Twins left 75% of their opposing runners stranded.

Tampa and Minnesota’s pitching numbers are extremely similar. Both staff’s allowed few walks and base hits, compiling a 1.28 WHIP. Tampa fanned the 10th most hitters, but it is interesting to note the Royals pitcher’s had more strikeouts than the Twins. Minnesota’s ability to pound the strike zone, combined with a strong defense allows for fewer swings and misses.

Defense

The Royals’ suspect defense in 2010 was understandable. With a combination of aging position players and young talent, like Alex Gordon, trying to find new positions, stability was difficult. The midseason loss of David DeJesus cost Kansas City dearly, specifically with the leather. The team’s UZR for the 2010 campaign, -44.2.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) tries to quantify how many runs a team or player saves or allows through their defense prowess. UZR takes into account a players arm, the amount of double plays they create, their range, and error frequency. A 0 UZR would indicate a team of league average, replacement defenders.

In other words, if the Royals could have put eight replacement level players in the field for every game, they would have allowed about 40 less runs. A general rule of thumb, ten runs equals one win. With replacement level defense this team becomes a 70 game winner. Obviously playing both sides is part of the game, but this is an interesting way to dissect the defensive deficiencies.

The Rays and Twins posted team UZR of 32.6 and 32.4, respectively. Their pitching staff’s felt the love from the glove, preventing over 30 runs during the course of the campaign. Good for about three more notches in the ‘W’ column. For the Rays, it meant the one game difference of an AL East Championship and home field advantage over the Yankees.

Player Evaluation

I can put as many numbers up as I want, but in the end there’s only one key component, player evaluation. If I had only two words to answer the question, those would suffice. Instead I’m going to give you about 3,000.

The way the game is played has changed. MLB is a young man’s game once again. The days of 40 year-old physical phenoms left when steroid testing was introduced. Clubs no longer can rely on expensive and aging stars to continually carry their franchise.

The best example I can give lies within the immense influx of 20-something star rookies this year alone. Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Tyler Colvin, Austin Jackson, Pedro Alvarez, Starlin Castro, Logan Morrison, the list goes on and on. I didn’t even mention pitchers, and even so those are only a fraction of the rookies making genuine impact on their teams this year.

The teams adapting most quickly, while staying ahead of the curve, will be the one’s reaping the benefits for years to come. Free agency is no longer an option for replacement or stop gap players. There is no need for 3-year, $36 million contracts for the Jose Guillen’s of the world. If your farm system cannot produce replacement level talent to fill holes for 2-4 seasons, your organization is doomed. Simple as that.

Why would you ever pay an aging player millions of dollars, when you could have a young kid off the farm come fill the void for a couple hundred thousand? Are they going to make a comparable contribution to a big name free agency talent? Maybe, maybe not.

In Guillen’s two and a half years in Kansas City he posted a combined WAR of -1.3. The Royals paid this guy $12 million a year, to play below replacement level. Hindsight is 20/20, but plain and simple it’s a horrible business move.

I believe if you survey any of the Royals fans, they would rather see a young guy hustling for a contract down the road. Instead they get guys who are already fat on their paychecks, and dog it once they know the season is gone. Let’s be honest the true fans are the only ones paying attention anymore anyway.

Gil Meche fared better under his monster contract, until injuries of late. He posted a combined WAR of 9 since becoming a Royal, even making an All-Star appearance in 2007. Nine wins above replacement level over four seasons though comes out to just about an average starter in MLB. While they are getting some return, $12 million is a waste for an average starter, let alone an 8th inning guy.

This doesn’t mean all free agent moves are bad moves. Instead of trying to create a competitive roster out of free agents, they should be used as compliments to the core by contending teams. Both the Twins and Rays have shelled out big dollar contracts to free agents. Instead of having to carry the team, they simply slip into their role and succeed by feeding off the nucleus created in the organization.

Financial

A quick look at the 2010 payrolls shows the Twins bolster the 11th highest ($97,559,167), while the Royals ($72,267,710) and Rays ($71,923,471) are back-to-back at 20th and 21st. The most interesting thing about the payroll is how the funds are allocated throughout the roster.

With the money the Royals planned on paying Meche and Guillen alone this year ($24.4 million) they could afford the contracts of the Rays entire starting pitching staff (Matt Garza, James Shields, David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis for a combined $9.12 million), Carl Crawford ($10 million), Evan Longoria ($950,000), Ben Zobrist ($400,000), and Sean Rodriguez ($400,000). Are you kidding?

Take Meche and Guillen’s contracts, add Yuniesky Betancourt ($3.3 million) and Brian Bannister ($2.3 million) and compare those dollar signs to the Twins. It is the equivalent of Joe Mauer ($12.5 million), Justin Morneau ($15 million), Francisco Liriano ($1.6 million), and Denard Span ($750,000).

Those comparisons are obviously way out of balance, but the common thread with all of the contracts for the Rays and Twins, those players came up through their farm system. Not all were drafted by the organization, but all spent time in their minor league program. Once breaking into the big leagues, they are under team control for the next six years.

These two clubs have been building baseball factories for the last decade. They found out the formula. Find the right player evaluators, pump talent and team oriented players into the organization. They have put the correct player development, coaching staff, and winning atmosphere in place. The Twins and Rays have been churning out big league ball players consistently. Recently, it’s been non-stop.

These factories grind out big league ready talent on a year to year basis. Have a hole? No problem, just go check down on the farm. Sure enough, there are a few more youngsters getting molded as we speak.

I heard a sports broadcaster make the comment on-air a few days ago if Zach Greinke wasn’t traded this off-season for a boatload of successful prospects, the whole organization is going in the tank. I understand sports media is opinion driven, I can respect that.

As a rule of thumb in journalism, I prefer my opinions to be backed with some facts. Anyone from the street can sit in front of a microphone and shout out whatever they think; it doesn’t make them sports journalist. I despise whoever allows garbage like this to run.

When has one player every mattered in the ultimate team game? Greinke is the backbone of the franchise, not to mention their most valuable commodity. If he leaves though, I’m pretty sure the Royals will survive. Want proof?

The Minnesota Twins perennial MVP candidate Justin Morneau went down on July 7th with a concussion. This guy won the MVP in 2006, placed second in 2008, won two Silver Sluggers, and is a four-time All-Star, how could they ever replace such production? Tapping into the baseball factory.

Rookie third baseman Danny Valencia is right there to pick up the slack. The guy comes out and puts up a line like this, .311, 7HR, 18 2B, 40 RBI, 300 AB, 5.2 UZR, and 2.6 WAR. He owns the highest AL rookie batting average, third in slugging, and fifth in on-base percentage. He was a 19th round pick, no one outside of the Twins organization had heard of this guy four months ago.

The Twins went on to a 49-29 record without their slugger, the best in baseball since the day of the injury. They also hit for a higher batting average and scored more runs per game then when Morneau was healthy.

Find a hole not readily available from your baseball machine? Now it’s time to go out onto the free agency market.

Price is no longer a problem because you have already locked down the core of your team for the next 4-6 years near league minimum. Guys breaking into the big leagues this year won’t be arbitration eligible until 2013 or a free agent until 2016. If teams bring up a wave of talent to the big leagues all at once it allows a pretty large window of opportunity for success.

Bringing up guys who impress in their early twenties gives pretty good incentive to take a reduced rate early in their career. They don’t have to wait six years for free agency and still make some coin (See Evan Longoria’s 6 year, $17.5 million contract).

With money left in the bank both squads have gone to the free agent market to amp up their rosters. The Twins invested $7 million on Carl Pavano. Pavano went 17-11, throwing 221 innings with a 3.75 ERA, good enough for a 4.6 WAR. Not to mention a mustache putting even Tom Selleck, Mr. Baseball himself, to shame. Any man with lip fur like that deserves every penny he is owed.

The Rays dropped some cash on a premium arm of their own, Rafael Soriano. They paid the cool tempered flame thrower $7.25 million for his services out of the pen. He’s posted a 0.8 WHIP, 1.73 ERA, 45 S, and a 2.6 WAR. Not quite as good as return as Pavano, but with a few clutch postseason saves the Rays management will surely forget.

Not having to worry about the bulk of your roster come off-season allows management to more accurately assess their needs. Instead of panicking and overpaying for someone to block talent from below, General Managers like Andrew Friedmen and Bill Smith come off looking like geniuses for making all the right moves during the winter.

When these baseball factories produce their prospects, they stick. Once they hit the big leagues they blossom into stars and quick. Let’s take a quick look at how some of the mainstays in these line-ups made their first impressions on a big league level.

Tampa Bay Rays

B.J. Upton (22) – .300, 24 HR, 22 SB, 82 RBI, 4.6 WAR

Ben Zobrist* (27) – .253, 10 2B, 13 HR, 30 RBI – Two years later, All-Star 8th in MVP voting

Evan Longoria (22) – .272, 31 2B, 27 HR, 85 RBI – Rookie of the Year, All-Star

Reid Brignac (24) – .256, 13 2B, 8 HR, 45 RBI, 2.7 UZR

Wade Davis (24) – 12-10, 1.35 WHIP, 168 IP, 4.07 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 1.8 WAR

Jeff Niemann (24) – 13-6, 3.94 ERA, 2 CG SO, 181 IP, 2.4 WAR – 4th in Rookie of the Year voting

Minnesota Twins

Joe Mauer (22) – .294, 26 2B, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 3.4 WAR – Next season, All-Star, Silver Slugger

Justin Morneau (23) – .271, 17 2B, 19 HR, 58 RBI – Two years later, MVP

Denard Span (24) – .294, 26 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 18 SB, 47 RBI, 3.9 WAR – 8th in Rookie of the Year voting

Jason Kubel (25) – .273, 31 2B, 13 HR, 61 RBI

Delmon Young** (21) – .288, 38 2B, 13 HR, 98 RBI, 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting

Scott Baker (24) – 0.8 WAR – Above 2 WAR every season since

Nick Blackburn (26) – 2.2 WAR – 8th in Rookie of the Year voting

Francisco Liriano*** (22) – 12-3, 1.00 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 4 WAR – All-Star, 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting

*Traded from Houston for Aubrey Huff and cash

**Traded with Jason Pridie and Brendan Harris from Rays to Twins for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett

***Traded with Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan from San Francison for A.J. Pierzynski

Kansas City Royals

Billy Butler (21) – .292, 23 2B, 8 HR, 52 RBI

Joakim Soria* (23) – 2.48 ERA, 17 S, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 WAR – 7th in Rookie of the Year voting

Zach Greinke (20) – 3.97 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 3.8 WAR – 4th in Rookie of the Year voting

*Rule 5 selection from San Diego Padres

The Royals put a small core of homegrown talent together, but it pales in comparison to the other squads. It’s not only evident in the number of players, but the number of wins. Nearly every rookie came in playing at the level of a MLB starter (2 WAR), if not higher. When they hit the scene the players knew they could play and felt comfortable in a system full of guys they had played beside through the minors.

Kansas City lately has been praised on the status of its minor league organizations. The Royals shouldn’t wait until 2012 to begin weeding out who will stay and who will go. 2011 is the time to test the waters. Not necessarily with Eric Hosmer, Mike Montgomery, or even Mike Moustakas.

A guy Kila Ka’aihue (AAA- .319, 24 HR, 16 2B, 78 RBI) must find a roster spot. If the Royals are building from the ground up and promoting from within it needs to start now. Ka’aihue is a perfect example of an organizational guy to fill the void for a few seasons until they find someone they want. If he performs well at the Major League level give him a contract. If not see what you can get for him. Either way it’s still better than spending $3-6 million on a free agent to do the same job, while not playing into the future plans.

The biggest problem with a ground swell of talent in a downtrodden organization like Kansas City is everyone from the front office to the fans expects one or two of these guys to be saviors. Media and fans constantly hype up these kids until at one point they can never reach the expectations set before them.

This is an enduring process. Just because these guys are slated to come in 2012-13 doesn’t mean they are going to compete. Some farmhands will be successful, plenty will not pan out. The most important thing for everyone involved is to respect the process. It works, look at the teams in the playoffs.

The kids are going to have to take their lumps at a Major League level. Not all of those first year numbers are spectacular. If the Royals continue this process and make efficient and effect moves in the off-seasons the pistons will soon be pumping from the Boys in Blue Baseball Factory at the ‘K.’

Until then, watch some baseball factories already constructed.

With no cable at home, or money for the bars, I had a momentary lapse in my frugal minded ways and splurged $9.95 for every play-off inning on Postseason.TV with MLB.com. Who couldn’t? So the next three weeks of my life will be spent sitting on my couch staring into a laptop screen of buffering pixels resembling ballplayers. Waiting until one team celebrates by jumping around like giddy little kids again, I’ll surely be following in unison, my body covered in goose bumps. After, it’s the worst five months of the year, until spring has sprung again. Such is life, when life is baseball.

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Who To Blame? Passing The Buck On The Cardinals’ Season

While trying to find hope that things could still turn around for the Cardinals this season, I think I am instead moving into the first stage of grief: denial. The second stage – anger – is not one I particularly enjoy, so I am trying to skip that one, but this piece might be my way to breeze through that stage and move on to whatever comes next (I believe it is bargaining, but that might go quickly as well with only twenty-nine games left). I need to know right now who to be mad at, but the list is long. Help me out, will you? We can start at the top and work our way down…

Ownership: It almost feels weird to be frustrated with a group that opened their wallets to the tune of $120 million for one Matt Holliday and another $7.5 million for Brad Penny over the winter, but that seems to be exactly where we sit going into the last month of the season. Word spread that there was a bit of flexibility in payroll this year in terms of being able to bring in a big <insert needed item here> at some point in the season, but that big item did not materialize in the way people expected (unless you consider the fact that the team probably saved money by dealing, essentially, Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook).

Considering the fact that this winter negotiations absolutely have to happen with Albert Pujols if the Cardinals plan on keeping him, things could get ugly if the ownership does not plan on adding any salary flexibility in the next year or two, thereby forcing GM John Mozeliak to continue bargain bin shopping to fill out a roster.

General Manager: Credit where due, Johnny Mo has not had too much to work with as of late. The team was desperate for a starting pitcher and a third baseman, but did not have the payroll flexibility or minor league trade chips to work with, so he settled for acquisitions like Jake Westbrook and Pedro Feliz instead of other various big names that floated about in the rumor mills in the days leading up to and beyond the trade deadline. Obviously Mozeliak had a hand in that payroll flexibility (or lack thereof) issue, creating the deals for Holliday and Kyle Lohse, among others. He should not expect things to get any easier in the coming days either, again considering the Pujols contract, among others.

Minor League Operations: This blame has been years in the making. Things are moving up (in my mind at least), and several of the Cardinals’ affiliates are playing at the top of their respective leagues. The rookie league Johnson City Cardinals are the 2010 Appalachian League champions, the AAA Memphis Redbirds are fighting for their playoff lives as we speak, and several teams in between are finding ways to win as well. It almost seems ludicrous to think that the organization that was ranked eighth last spring fell all the way to twenty-ninth out of thirty in a year’s time, but that is exactly what happens when you trade away several of your most prominent minor leaguers.

How these minor league teams continue to win almost does not make sense to me. If these players are worth so little that no team would take them via trade during the trading deadline, how do they continue to win? Hopefully with what appears to be a strong draft class the system will rebound soon, but for now the pieces were apparently not there to help the big league club, and that is not good.

Manager: Tony LaRussa bashing is at an all-time high right now, and I am getting really close to being completely on board. Did you see the lineup that was run out there against the Cincinnati Reds yesterday? Aaron Miles over Skip Schumaker, Nick Stavinoha over Colby Rasmus, and Pedro Feliz – all in the same lineup? I know it did not help things when the trio combined to go 0-11 on the day with five men left on base, but that lineup is just not fair.

Others have gone on and on about how Tony has chosen to manage this year, so I am choosing not to go into too much detail, but I will say that several of Tony’s choices over the past week have about sent me over the edge, not to mention his affinity for playing time for his pet past-their-prime veterans like Aaron Miles, Jeff Suppan and Randy Winn. Moving on, before I get more frustrated…

Starting Rotation: It is very difficult to be angry at the starting pitchers. How could you be mad at the stellar three headed monster of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia? If anything, those three should be mad at every player playing behind him for not putting any runs on the board some nights. I could gripe about Jeff Suppan again, but you all already know how I feel about him. Jake Westbrook has been serviceable, Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny injured, and Blake Hawksworth tried his best in the starting rotation, but for the most part, the starters did what they could with what they had.

Bullpen: Again, I struggle with placing blame on the bullpen. Those guys have had to eat a lot of innings not covered by Carpenter and Wainwright starts. For the most part, the relief corps of Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Ryan Franklin and others have been lights out, but they have had their fair share of struggles from time to time as well, including a rather insane few days in Colorado that we have all tried our best to forget. For me, the biggest goat in the bullpen this year has been Dennys Reyes, but that might just be my opinion.

Positions Players: This is the hairiest one for me. Where do you start? At the beginning of the year Matt Holliday was wearing the collar for his poor batting average with runners in scoring position, but he has righted the ship and is sitting right around the .300 batting average/.900 on-base plus slugging percentage, which is good-not-great, but I would be loath to consider him a bust of a signing.

Skip Schumaker, Yadier Molina and Brendan Ryan all had horrendous first halves, and while their numbers still are not stellar, they have been rising a bit throughout the course of the year. You could toss a lot of blame to those three.

Add this to the fact that David Freese met not only the injury bug but all of the bug’s family members as well, and they sent him packing for the year, despite what had been a strong start to a potential Rookie of the Year candidacy.

After that, Pujols has performed around the level we would expect (at least, top five in all the triple crown categories seems like it would be the level anyone would expect), Colby Rasmus has had issues, Ryan Ludwick was playing decently before his trade, and the offense has been shut out 12 times, scored one run 13 times, and two runs 18 times in 132 games. For a team that includes several All-Stars, heavy hitters and Gold Glove worthy players (I forgot to even get in to some defensive struggles the team has faced this year), that simply should not happen.

Bench: The further into the season we went this year, the more reasons I found to dislike the bench. It was an exciting start to the year seeing several of the ‘Baby Birds’ filling roles on the opening day roster. One by one players like Joe Mather, Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Tyler Greene and Fernando Salas started wearing a path in the road from St. Louis to Memphis, and Cardinal fans everywhere shook their heads at the signings of Aaron Miles, Randy Winn, and the trade for Pedro Feliz – known veterans that were brought on to provide relief off the bench.

Felipe Lopez was doing well as a bench player, but over-exposure once Freese went down wore him down to the point where he has been strongly ineffective over the past month plus. Jay has now been inserted into the starting lineup (thankfully), but as a whole, looking at the bench right now, I could replace almost all of them with a player currently playing lights out on the Memphis roster. Not okay.

Fans: I know. Blame the “best fans in baseball”??? How is that possible? They fill the stands every night, know the game better than most, and support the team, even as they spent the last road trip finding every way possible to lose to some of the worst teams in baseball this year. The bullpen especially took note after Friday’s 3-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds that they were not sure what to expect after a 2-8 road trip, but the fans were absolutely incredible.

Or at least, that is what the players see.

Thankfully, most of them probably do not read things like Twitter, various message boards, or angry Facebook statuses. Things have not been so sunny there. Has all of the venom been unfounded? Of course not, but it has not been completely rational either. Baseball makes people do funny things, and one of those things includes, apparently, lashing out when things are not going very well.

The Final Word: Obviously, no one group is to blame for the unfortunate situation the Cardinals find themselves in – eight games out in the NL Central and six games back in the wild card race. As with any team, the blame is rarely placed solely on one individual or small group of people. It is a team effort, and this team could have and should have been better. I am not skipping out on this season until it is over, but at least I can move past the anger phase now!

Angela Weinhold covers the Cardinals for i70baseball.com, BaseballDigest.com and writes at Cardinal Diamond Diaries. You may follow her on Twitter here or follow Cardinal Diamond Diaries here.

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