The final scores of the first three games between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals this season weren’t all that close, but the games were tighter than the margins of victory indicated.

That could foreshadow another season of great baseball between the National League Central Division’s two best teams, but it probably won’t determine which team wins the division.

The Cincinnati Reds destroyed the St. Louis Cardinals 13-4 Monday in the Cardinals’ home-opener, but that was a close game until the ninth, and the Cardinals ripped the Reds the next two days, 5-1 and 10-0, to take an extremely early 2-1 lead in the season series against their most dangerous divisional opponent.

That’s obviously a good way to kick off what could be a fun race for the 2013 division crown, but the Cardinals’ records against teams outside the National League Central Division might be even more important.

Based on how the teams played in their recent series at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals and Reds are both good, but they are pretty evenly matched.  One team probably won’t win the vast majority of the 19 games the rivals play against each other this season, nor will one team likely falter against a specific divisional opponent.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates are decent, but the Cardinals and Reds are better than both of those teams, as well as the lowly Chicago Cubs, and they should run through the division relatively easily. Now, the division race could be drastically altered if the Cardinals or Reds continually falter against a particular opponent, but that is still improbable.

The more likely scenario is a season series that ends up 10-9, 11-8 or 12-7. Sure, those couple of games will be extremely important if the Reds and Cardinals end up in a tight battle in the standings near the end of the season, but the winner of that battle will likely be the team that wins the most games against teams in every other divisions, especially now that Major League Baseball has implemented season-long interleague play.

The Cardinals beat the Reds in eight of their 15 games last season, and both teams had similar records within the division. The Cardinals went 45-32 against NL Central opponents, while the Reds went 49-30. Again, those few games do matter, but the biggest difference between the Cardinals and Reds in 2012 was their performance against NL East teams.

The Reds won 19 of 34 games against the NL East last season. While that’s not a great record by any means, it is significantly better than the Cardinals 14-20 record against those same teams. And that’s largely the reason the Reds finished nine games ahead of the Cardinals in the final standings.

But that doesn’t mean Reds-Cardinals games won’t be a lot of fun to watch this season. Both teams have good pitching, and they have balanced lineups that can score a lot of runs at any time. That combination makes for games that will usually be close throughout, as the last three games were through the first half.

The Cardinals would’ve outscored the Reds 3-2 for the series if the teams had play just the first four innings each day. Instead, the Cardinals outscored the Reds 19-14 in what looks like an offensively charged series, when in reality pitchers shut down each offense for the majority of each game.

The teams will meet again April 29 for round two at Busch Stadium, and they’ll play four more series after that. But what each team does in the games between those meetings will play just as large a role in which team represents the NL Central in the 2013 playoffs.

ST. LOUIS, Mo, January 22, 2013 – The St. Louis Cardinals announced today that they have agreed to terms with pitcher Jason Motte on a two-year contract for the 2013 and 2014 seasons, avoiding salary arbitration.

Motte, 30, tied for the National League lead with a career high 42 saves in 2012 and became the first Cardinal in franchise history to record every save during the season. The right-hander ranked 9th among N.L. relievers last season with a career high 86 strikeouts, 8th with a .191 opponent’s batting average and T11th in innings pitched (72.0). He also ranked second in the league with 58 games finished.

“We are excited to be able to have Jason under control for the next two years,” said team Sr. Vice President & General Manager, John Mozeliak. “We wanted to recognize what Jason has accomplished for the Cardinals and the role he has played in our bullpen. He exemplifies the type of player on and off the field we want in our organization, and we’re looking forward to having him part of the team for the next two seasons.”

Motte made his Major League debut with the Cardinals in 2008 and since that time has a 17-13 career record with 54 saves. His 54 saves rank 11th all-time among Cardinals relievers, and his 42 saves last season marked the 6th-highest total in a single season, becoming just the fourth Cardinal in franchise history to reach the 40-save plateau (Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Jason Isringhausen).

From MLBTradeRumors.com - The agreement buys out Motte’s two final years of arbitration, but won’t delay his path to free agency. He still projects to hit the open market following the 2014 season. Motte had filed for a $5.5MM salary for 2013 and the Cardinals had countered with $4.5MM, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. The 30-year-old set himself up for a raise from his 2012 salary of $1.95MM by posting a 2.75 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and an NL-best 42 saves this past season.

The deal is worth $12MM and includes performance bonuses, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter).

Motte’s signing leaves two arbitration eligible players left unsigned: third baseman David Freese and left handed pitcher Marc Rzepczynski.

I know it is hard to believe, but the Kansas City Royals have actually been a very competitive team for the last month and a half. Since starting 3-14 they’ve gone 19-15, against a much tougher stretch of competition than they’re preparing to face. Even at that pace they’d finish the season with 84 victories at the end of the year. In theory, if they do continue playing the same level of baseball, they’ll win many more than 84 games. Why? Take a look at the winning percentages for the Royals past and future opponents:

Last 34 games (19-15 stretch):  .521

Rest of June: .457

That’s a huge difference in quality of opponent. Even after another disastrous start by Luke Hochevar against the worst offense in the American League, the Royals still find themselves in prime position to climb back to .500 by the end of June. Their next 10 games are against teams with losing records, before they face the fading Cardinals on back-to-back weekends. The opponent in between those weekend match ups is none other than the Houston Astros, picked by many to be the worst team in baseball in 2012. In fact, the only formidable opponents the Royals face in June are the Tampa Bay Rays, and they get three against the hapless Twins right after that. All told that leaves 25 games remaining in June, with 22 against teams you could argue the Royals are equal with or better than. Now of course, that only puts the club at .500, does that really even matter?

Yes, when you consider…

-          Salvador Perez is playing in extended spring training games and expected to be back with the club in the next month

-          Jonathan Sanchez is dominating at AAA, looking like his DL stint may have actually helped

-          Wil Myers continues to force the Royals hand, and could be playing center field in Kansas City by the beginning of July

-          Their July schedule is not much tougher as their July opponents currently have a .466 winning percentage

The only good thing about all of the Royals injuries is that they will have a mid season injection of talent without having to trade any of their best prospects. Perez makes this team considerably better, so does Sanchez if he can harness 2010. Does this team look like a contender with those two? Not even close, unless Eric Hosmer wakes up and Wil Myers comes up and mashes. That is the thing about this club, as young as they are, for many of them we are just waiting for the light bulb to switch on. Hosmer could put together a June that almost completely erases April and May. In fact against the teams he is about to face, I would almost be more surprised if he didn’t.

Okay, I’ll pause the hyperbole and get back to math. If the Royals win at a .558 clip against opponents with a .521 winning %, they should in theory play .625 (17-10) ball based on the winning % of their June opponents and .619 (16-9) in July. That would put the Royals at 55-48 on August 1. From August 1^st through the end of the year, the Royals play 29 games against the Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago White Sox. At the very least they would control their own destiny; they may even be in the driver’s seat.

As Royals fans we’ve been promised a competitive team “in the future” since before the Allard Baird era, and for the most part, the club has failed to deliver. In my opinion, that future starts right now…in June…it’s our time.

The St. Louis Cardinals have had a very good start to the 2012 season with 16 wins and a 2.5 game lead in the NL Central heading into play Saturday. But the schedule in May is not quite as easy as the one the Cardinals cruised through in April.

The Cardinals finish up a stretch of 27 consecutive games against NL Central opponents Sunday. They will play only two games against a divisional opponent, the Chicago Cubs May 14-15, for the next 27 games on the schedule.

Although the Cardinals played an odd early season schedule with so many divisional games, it worked out in their favor because the division doesn’t appear to be that strong this year. The Cincinnati Reds were the only other NL Central team to have a winning record heading into play Saturday.

The Cardinals will start to face tougher competition soon, however, and it will come in a hurry. They will play 16 of those upcoming 27 games against teams with a record of .500 or better.

So, while the Cardinals’ starting pitching has been magnificent so far this season, the rotation will truly be put to the test in the coming weeks. This would be a good time for Adam Wainwright to return to Cy Young award-winning form.

Although the upcoming schedule is more difficult, it could also be a bit of a blessing for the Cardinals. Playing divisional opponents all of the time has started to get stale, and different competition might help the team remain sharp.

The Cardinals have shown a few vulnerabilities of late. They had the Pittsburgh Pirates blown out early Tuesday but allowed the Pirates to get back in the game late. The Cardinals still won 10-7 and pounded the Bucs again the next night 12-3.

However, the Cardinals also continued a disturbing trend Thursday when the Pirates beat them 6-3. That was the fourth series the Cardinals had a chance to sweep, and they have yet to put the broom to the floor this season.

That trend can’t continue once the Cardinals venture out against better teams. They likely won’t have as many opportunities to complete a sweep, which is also why it has been painful to see them allow teams to steal the final game of a series so often.

A team that averages two wins out of every three games will have a fantastic season and win more than 105 games, but that is unrealistic. To maintain a first-place worthy record, good teams have to play well against other good teams, but they also have to dominate the bad teams.

The Cardinals have played some bad teams already this season, and they have dominated them in several games. But, they haven’t put the final stamp on a series and prove the point that some teams simply can’t compete with the Cardinals on a day-to-day basis.

Granted, I know we’re splitting hairs here. The Cardinals have gotten off to a wonderful start to the season. They have managed to avoid the devastating Mariano Rivera-type injury despite an old roster.

However, as I said before the season began, pitching will be the key to the Cardinals success. If the pitching staff performs well throughout May, the Cardinals will likely have proved they are a worthy contender for the National League pennant.

As I wrote last week in this space, everything was rainbow and lollipops in Cardinal Nation after such a fast start out of the gate, beating up on division foes.  The St. Louis Cardinals were the first defending World Series champions to win their first six series of the season since the 1922 New York Giants. That, as you know by now, came after a season of incredible turnover and uncertainty heading into 2012.

Going into Opening Day, this was the talk, “Yes this team has talent, how will they respond without Pujols, Duncan, and LaRussa?”  “Can the team hold up through injuries with so many veterans?”

Then something happened. The team started winning in convincing fashion. And subtly, expectations became reset.

A tremendous start to the season. Heading into the Chicago series, the Cardinals led the NL in almost every offensive category and in run differential (second only in the league to Texas Murderer’s Row Rangers).

Then the first two games against the Cubs happened. Both 3-2 losses. Both 2-1 leads given up by the bullpens in the 9th inning. Now the team is 11-7 and only two games out in front of the Brewers. Now the team is dealing with the bats cooling off. Now they are dealing with fighting through blown calls by umpires and the bullpen giving up leads. They are dealing with multiple injuries that test not only their depth but their resolve. In a word, for the first time of the Mike Matheny era, they are dealing with significant adversity.

Making too much of a simple two game losing skid against Windy City Rivals? I am not so sure.

There are 9 more games in a row against the NL Central. As I have written many times before, these games are crucial. Even if they go 5-4, the fast start would ensure a 16-11 record, which is nothing to make light of. Personally, I think the team should be shooting for 17-10 or 18-9 through the NL Central start of the schedule. They still have the opportunity to run out to a good lead in the division, but it will depend on their ability to push through adversity, to push through a lack of run support for pitching over the last four games, the bullpen shaking off a couple of tough losses and blown saves.

This is the moment a lot of Cardinals fans have been waiting for. To seem what the team is truly made of. As my UCB co-host Dathan Brooks often says, every win in April is a win you don’t have to get in September. These April games really matter because they are all against the Central. And these next nine games will show us how the team handles its first bit of adversity on the young season.

It sure would be nice if they could give Wainwright a little bit of support as he is trying to get back to form. So far, he has had zero, that’s right zero, run support in his first four outings. That will change. His stuff still is not what it once was, but that is to be expected at least for a couple more months. He showed last night he will fight to make pitches and get outs with less than his best stuff. It is a move in the right direction. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Waino doesn’t go for another four games.

The first battle to get back on track and further the division lead is today at Wrigley Field at 1:20 Central Time. Can the Birds shake off a couple tough losses, and show the resolve and grit their new manager preaches? Or will they allow the sting of the last two nights to carry over and leave them in a division dogpile?….

It sure will be fun to watch and find out.

If you are not aware: The Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder a nine year, $214 Million contract this past week. Adding Fielder not only makes the Detroit Tigers the undisputed favorite to win the AL Central. It makes the divide between where the Kansas City Royals are, and where they need to be, to win the AL Central much greater than before.

The Tigers are just one of the Royals’ four divisional opponents. With the unbalanced schedule they will play each opponent 18 or 19 times. The divisional opponent I despise the most is dependant upon who is having the most success. In 2003 that team was the Twins. The Indians and White Sox have at one time been my most despised divisional opponent. Right now, I really don’t like the Tigers. Who ever the Tigers are playing 2012, I’ll root for them.

The Divide between the Tigers & the Royals might be bigger than this.

This is a new realization for me. Even last year when the Tigers won the division by 15 games I did not despise them as much as I despise them now. Maybe it was the horrendous 2003 season. Maybe it’s that the Tigers seem to draft a lot of players from Wichita State. Maybe, deep down I like the demeanor of their chain smoking manager Jim Leyland. I’m not sure why I had a soft spot for the Tigers until now. In fact the Royals Franchise should have a soft spot for the Tigers. After all, that 119 loss 2003 team is the only thing separating the Royals from being the WORST TEAM IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL this century! In the end the joke was on the Royals. The Tigers won the American League Pennant three seasons later. Meanwhile the Royals lost another 100 games, fired their general manager a week before the draft, and had a pitching staff so terrible an over the hill Scott Elarton was the Opening Day starter.

Because of Detroit’s separation from the rest of the AL Central I no longer have a soft spot for them. The White Sox and Twins have entered rebuilding mode. If the Royals are an improved team they should beat these two teams like a rented mule. I’m not sure I can feel sorry for them. Even there are repeated trips behind the woodshed. The Cleveland Indians are in the same place developmentally as the Royals. They might be ahead. They have already pulled the trigger for an ace pitcher to supplement their farm system. Something the Royals seem reluctant to do. If the Royals are ever going to make the playoffs they have to get through the Indians to do it. No love for the Indians, here.

This is how see the AL Central shaping up for the 2012 Season. The Tigers are miles head of the rest of the division. The Royals and Indians will fight for second and third. That is a fight the Royals need to win if they are going to seriously contend in 2013. The Twins and White Sox will be scrumming in the basement. I guess you could call it progress that the Royals are not being picked to finish last. Progress is good, but there is a great divide between the Royals and the Tigers. Dayton Moore and the Glass Family need to find a way to build a bridge.

Jon Jay has only been a member of the St. Louis Cardinals since 2010 yet his impact since then and beyond is undeniable. Both directly and indirectly Jay is responsible for the trading of Ryan Ludwick in 2010 and Colby Rasmus this season. And he will undoubtedly have a major impact on what the Cardinals do in free agency this offseason.

The Cardinals made the decision last year by trading away their All-Star and 100 RBI outfielder, and reaffirmed their stance that Jay could be a full time player when they made that decision known far and wide this season by siphoning away playing time from and then trading away their 2005 1^st round draft pick in favor or Jay.

The Cardinals belief that Jay could transition from sharing outfield duties to taking them on entirely by himself was a gamble based on a small sample size. It was a gamble the team wanted to make sooner rather than later. It was a gamble that when made looked sure to pay off.

At the time Ludwick was traded in 2010, Jay was hitting nearly .400, with a .396 batting average. Throw that in with his .447 OBP and an OPS at the time of 1.051 and the Cardinals were sold. We were all drinking Jayoraid and it was good. He seemed like a natural fit in the Cardinal outfield and more importantly appeared comfortable with the responsibility that comes with playing every day.

Then came the reality that that playing often is not the same as playing always. As your sample size grows, so does the opponent’s book on you. Of course no reasonable baseball writer, analyst or blogger expected Jay to keep hitting near .400. At the same time, none expected Jay to essentially nose dive after taking over the job full time.

Jay finished the season hitting a very respectable .300, but his average dropped all the way to .298 before a hit in his last game of the season got it back up to .300. Jon Jay finished the 2010 season with a line of .300, an OBP of .359 and an OPS of .780. Not bad at all. But when those numbers are replacing the two year averages from Ludwick of 29 HR’s and 105 RBI it left me wanting a bit more out of a Cardinal outfielder.

Enter 2011. Colby Rasmus is your everyday center fielder to start the season. Something we were all on board with. Jay was back in his 4^th outfielder role. As Colby gradually seemed to lose his mental toughness he also began to lose AB’s and then starts to Jay. Jay responded as he did in 2010, by hitting and hitting well.

That brings us to July 26^th. By now Rasmus was hitting .246 and had all but lost his job out right to Jay and was sent to Toronto. The full time job was Jay’s again. He had earned it…again, hitting .312 with an OBP of .363. To top it off, Jay was playing a great defensive centerfield as well.

Our fears were over. Jay had earned it, proving last year’s drop off was a fluke. Knowing the money that is potentially to be invested in Albert Pujols, having one less spot to address in free agency would help. The Cardinals had their young, cost controlled centerfielder of the future.

Well…maybe, argh….not so fast. In the twenty games since officially becoming the man in centerfield, Jay’s average has dipped 20 points. After going hitless in five at-bats Sunday, slumping to seven for his last 43 (.163) overall, Tony La Russa decided that it was time for Jay to regroup for a game. He moved second baseman Skip Schumaker to center field.

Again, not what you want to see from your every day CF. We all might need to face the reality that both Jon Jay and the Cardinals are best suited with him as a 4^th outfielder. The numbers are not the issue. The issue is inconsistency over long periods of time. If TLR is going to run a guy out there every day he expects more, and he should. Fans expect more, and we should.

Well we are nearing the end of the season and if management is going to cross center fielder off of their free agency wish list they are going to need to see more out of number fifteen. And if Jay is counting on going into spring as THE guy out there, it’s time to start performing a bit more like the guy who used to wear that number.

The Royals are heading in the right direction once again. Sweeping the Twins at home and looking good while doing it gives more sparks to the fire of success that has started to grow in Kansas City this baseball season. The Twins, who have plagued this franchise for over a decade, were absolutely out hit and pitched the whole series.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

The series against Baltimore proved to be a challenge against not only their opponent but also the very stadium in which it was played. In the Wednesday night game Aviles hit a rocket to the gap and circled the bases for what appeared to be an inside the park home run. This score was wiped out due to the ball being stuck at the bottom of the outfield fence. (So much for home field, advantage) If this had happened to last year’s team, it would have sent them spiraling into one of their five game or more losing streak. Not this year though. The Royals responded the next night with a 9-1 shelling to clinch the series. Who knew Bruce Chen was this good?

Jason Kendall and Robinson Tejada are recovering and rehabbing but are being very cautious though. The Royals called up Eric Hosmer from Omaha, and demoted the struggling Kila Ka’aihue. With this move, it definitely has the potential of increasing an offense that needed at least one stronger bat in the lineup. Although, one could make the case that the Royals were doing okay by platooning Betemit and Aviles at third and first base since both are hitting well.

Friday night marked the return of David DeJesus to Kansas City. The Athletics pulled out a tight one but if this season has taught us anything, it will not keep this young team down for too long. They are still above .500 and in second place in their division, which is still exceeding any expectations. They have a tough week coming up going to New York and then to Detroit.

The Yankees struggled this week at Detroit, losing the last three games of the series. Detroit is nipping at the Royals heels in the division. A little bit of pressure early in the season against these quality teams will be a very good barometer of how far the Royals have come since last year.

The Royals hot bats have ended the week on top of the American League rankings in batting average, doubles and triples, while finishing second in on-base percentage. Their defense and pitching are on the upward swing. A call up on the pitching side of things could be in the near future if the young prospects continue to show promise and current roster members continue to struggle.

Being positively consistent is the key to success in this game and the Royals are showing that they are very capable of being just that.

The biggest story of June could be decisions facing the club regarding whether or not to call up any of their top prospects. Rookies called up in June or after do not qualify for “super two” status, thus delaying arbitration eligibility down the line. It will be an exciting month if one or more of the heralded prospects make their debut.

Besides that, the second half of the month will be entirely inter-league with series against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Padres.

June Breakdown:

Total Games: 27

Home: 15

Road: 12

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 14

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 10

Vs teams in the AL Central: 4

Inter-league games: 12

Key Series:

June 2-5 vs. Minnesota – This is the only series against an AL Central opponent all month, but it will only be a key series if the Royals have a surprising start and are having dreams of contention.

June 17-19 @ St. Louis – After hosting the Cards in May, the Royals head across the state for the second part of the 2011 I-70 series.

Key To a Hot Start:

The first nine games of the month are home games, so the Royals will have to take full advantage of home cooking.

At the end of June:

If the Royals are above .500… The Royals will have beaten up on the National League, something that is not entirely out of the question.

If the Royals are .500… They will have significantly over-achieved.

If the Royals are below .500… No one will be surprised.