Each year, not matter how dreadful it is, a player and pitcher of the year is named by the Kansas City Royals. While it’s far from a scientific process, I thought it would be fun to try to project who will win that award in 2012. Now I want to be clear, this is not who should win the award. As is the case with most things the Royals do, what should happen and what will happen are not necessarily the same. Nonetheless, here are the contestants.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Alex Gordon- If this were a scientific process, Gordon would be the winner as he leads the team in WAR at 4.8. In fact, in terms of value, no one on the team is within 29% of his 4.8 WAR. After a terribly slow start to the season, Gordon now leads the majors with 47 doubles and has put together yet another spectacular defensive season. He’s quietly (at least outside of Kansas City) turned into one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the American League. Gordon also leads the team in walks and runs while placing second in hits, OBP, and triples. The negative, if there is one for Gordon, is that advanced metrics agree with the eye test that Gordon is not very clutch. In terms of advanced metrics, he is the least clutch player on the team with a clutch rating of -1.5. Furthermore, is WPA (Win Probability Added) is actually -0.5 for the season.

Billy Butler- If this was simple the award for offensive player of the year, you’d have to give it to Butler.  Butler leads the club in all three Triple Crown categories plus OBP and Slugging %. Butler’s 137 OPS+ is easily the best on the team and it really isn’t close. He’s most likely going to finish with .300/30/100 for the first time in Kansas City since Jermaine Dye in 2000. Unfortunately, this is a player of the year award and that includes defense, which would be the down side for Butler and why is WAR ranks Butler as the 4^th best player on the team. The only real question with Butler is whether is offensive statistics are impressive enough to override his lack of contribution in the field. That may very well be determined by his production in the last 17 games of the season.

Alcides Escobar- If we’d gotten the type of defense we expected from Escobar this season he may just be a runaway winner. Unfortunately, he has 17 errors and seems to have regressed just a little bit in the field. Of course that may be because he’s been so focused on what has been an outstanding year at the plate. Escobar leads in the team with seven triples and 29 stolen bases, is second in batting average, and surprisingly third in OBP. WAR rates Escobar as the Royals second best player, partially because he does still add something with his glove, but mostly because there just aren’t very many shortstops that can hit like him. He has a very good chance to finish the season with a .300 average, 30 stolen bases and 40 extra base hits. No one has done that in Kansas City since Carlos Beltran in 2003.

And the winner is…

I think it ends up being Gordon if only because Dayton Moore loves to feel like he’s smart and it would make him feel like a genius to have gotten Gordon’s contract done. Butler could probably only win the award by breaking Balboni’s record which would take ten home runs over the next 17 games…not happening.

PITCHER OF THE YEAR

Kelvin Herrera- Should middle relievers really be considered? Well, WAR thinks Herrera is the best pitcher on the club, so I’d say so. In 69 appearances, Herrera has a 2.43 ERA. Depending on which site you read, he may be the (consistently) hardest thrower in all of baseball. I don’t believe the Royals have the ability to recognize a pitcher with only 4 wins and 1 save, but Herrera should win the award regardless.

Greg Holland- Holland was arguably the best closer in baseball in August, and though he’s struggled a bit down the stretch he still sports a 2.98 ERA with 13 saves in 60 appearances. Holland’s most impressive stat? He’s struck out 84 batters in just 60 innings. He probably needs a couple more saves, and no more blow ups, to win the award. One thing that may help are his six wins, at least in the Royals eyes.

Jeremy Guthrie- Do I say this tongue-in-cheek? Kind of. Guthrie has been outstanding since the Royals acquired him for Jonathan Sanchez. The club is one game over .500 since they traded for him on July 20 and they’re 7-3 in games Guthrie has started including three games in which they only scored 2 runs. Guthrie would probably need to win his last three starts and lower his ERA below 3 (currently at 3.23) to have a real shot, but it plays right into the Dayton Moore making himself look smart angle.

And the winner is…

I believe in Greg Holland so I’m going to assume he finishes the year strong and wins the award with 18+ saves and a sub-3 ERA. He may not be the most deserving pitcher but he’ll have the statistics to make the club feel better about selecting him.

When infielder Chris Getz returned from the disabled list Tuesday night, the Royals sent infielder Johnny Giavotella to AAA Omaha. And when infielder Yuniesky Betancourt returned from the DL earlier this month, long time minor league infielder Irving Falu went back to Omaha.

If you read some of the articles and comments on Royals blogs and websites, it’s obvious Getz and Betancourt are not fan favorites. And with Betancourt’s lack of defensive range and Getz’s lack of power, it’s easy to see why. But are the players they replaced, Falu and Giavotella, any better? Or are Betancourt and Getz the best the Royals have for now?

For the sake of comparison, I’ll compare the positions of second base and utility infielder. For second base, I’ll compare second basemen Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella. For utility infielders, I’ll compare Yuniesky Betancourt and Irving Falu.

Comparing the offensive numbers of Getz and Giavotella, they’re similar in many ways, but some stats stand out.

Getz has more games and plate appearances than Giavotella and edges Gio in runs RBI and strikeouts. But Getz has seven more hits and a much higher batting average, on base percentage and slugging. Neither player has a home run, but second base is not a power position. Offense is important, but defense is key for asecond baseman. Here’s their defensive numbers:

Defensive stats aren’t as reliable as offensive stats due to a lot of factors I won’t list here. But Getz’s fielding percentage is 52 points over Giavotella’s and Getz is 10 points over the league fielding percentage. Giavotella is 42 points less than league average. And with range factor per nine innings, Getz is close to league average, but way ahead of Giavotella. So looking at statistics, one can see why the Royals say Getz’s defense has the edge and at least for 2012, Getz’s offense has the edge overGiavotella. Like it or not, Getz is playing better than Giavotella and until that changes, Giavotella will be staying in Omaha.

Moving on to the utility infielders, here’s the offensive numbers of Yuniesky Betancourt and Irving Falu:

Betancourt has a lot more games and plate appearances compared to Falu, but Falu has a decent number of hits with his limited playing time, which increases his batting average. And Falu was close to Betancourt in runs. However, Betancourt drove in more runs and Falu almost had as many strikeouts as Betancourt. Yuni has the edge in offense, but if Falu played as much as Betancourt, I have a feeling the numbers would be similar.

How about defense? That’s the bread and butter of an utility infielder and here’s the defensive numbers of Betancourt and Falu:

These defensive numbers are the average of second base, shortstop and third base, all positions Betancourt and Falu played. Both Betancourt and Falu are below league average in all categories, but Betancourt’s numbers are lower than Falu’s. The numbers tell us what we’ve known all along: Betancourt’s defense and range are below average and he’s not a good fielder. And Falu would likely do a better job as an utility infielder than Betancourt and provide almost the same level of offense.

So instead of playing Falu, a longtime minor leaguer who’s been with the Royals for years and would play at league minimum pay, the Royals play Betancourt, who has worse defense and is getting two million dollars that could be spent on pitching. And don’t forget the Royals like to platoon Betancourt and Getz at second base. These are the things which frustrate Royals fans.

These players alone aren’t going to get the Royals towards .500, let alone winning the American League Central. But for now, Chris Getz is the best player at second base and the Royals should dump Betancourt and call up Falu as their utility infielder.

I first considered turning this into an analogy about finishing my first 5K today, and how the season is just too long for panic attacks. I considered getting in line to announce how Luke Hochevar was finally figuring it out before his ankle injury forced him to leave the game. Unfortunately, I think the disaster that was Opening Day at the K deserves a little more sincerity and a little less levity.

It started around 11:30 AM as I pulled into Lot F and checked my phone to see Ned Yost’s Opening Day lineup. Jarrod Dyson was leading off, Jeff Francoeur was hitting second, and Alex Gordon had been moved to the 6 hole. To say this was ominous doesn’t begin to cover most Kansas City Royals fans’ feelings about it. Dyson’s career .292 OBP and Francoeur’s .313 would be setting the table for the three best hitters on the club. In fairness to Yost, his #2 hitter just went on the DL, but still. There was plenty of argument about who should be filling in for Lorenzo Cain on a daily basis, none of those arguments made a very good case that whoever did should be leading off.

As much as the lineup disturbed me, I still felt pretty good about Friday. After all, Luke Hochevar was on the mound and you all know how I felt about him coming into 2012. The Indians came into the game with an offense that scared no one and Hoch was coming off a very solid performance. Of course, that good feeling didn’t last long as the first three hitters reached for the Indians. After two relatively quick outs, the next 5 batters slapped the ball around the park, and before I could get a beer vendor’s attention, the Royals were down 7-0. It is important to note that with a little help from Yuniesky Betancourt, the Royals probably get out of the inning allowing just one run. Or that Dyson’s speed wasn’t enough to make up for his atrocious jump, leading to triple on a deep fly that also could have ended the inning. Hochevar was bad, no doubt, but he didn’t get much help either.

Even after the worst start to a Royals game that I can recall, it was still easy for the Kool Aid Drinker to be his optimistic self when Dyson, Francoeur and Eric Hosmer started off the home half of the first with 3 singles of their own. Maybe, just maybe, Yost’s crazy lineup was the one thing that could overcome the disastrous start from Hochevar. Of course, Billy Butler returned to 2009 form with a 4-6-3 GIDP and Alex Gordon struck out in a 5 pitch at bat. Other than a 2 run blip in the bottom of the 4^th (right after Hochevar left the game) Derek Lowe was on cruise control for the rest of the afternoon. There were positive signs in the box score, like Everett Teaford’s 4 shutout innings in relief, but overall it was a miserable day in Kansas City.

So, here we sit, 7 games into Our Time, and it’s tough to find much room for positive reflection. The Royals have lost their starting catcher and starting centerfielder from the lineup and replaced them with players that are worse both offensively and defensively. They lost a candidate for the rotation in Spring Training, and now Luke Hochevar’s next start is in question. Speaking of Hochevar, any illusions that he had actually “figured it out” seemed to be dashed on Friday, at least until his next dominant performance. Add to it the fact that Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Verlander are on desk for a lineup that is hitting .243 and ranks 13^th in the league in runs scored? Yeah, it would be hard to blame you for panicking…assuming you forgot that you’re cheering for the youngest team in all of baseball.

This team will get better as the season goes on. Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, even Eric Hosmer…all of these guys will improve the more baseball they get under their belt. Has the injury bug bitten this team early? Absolutely. Am I disappointed in Luke Hochevar? Of course.  Has anything really happened to change my mind about “The Process” or where this team is going? Not even a little bit.

Spring Training is underway and the Kansas City Royals begin their 2012 campaign. This year, fans are excited about the Royals young, talented players and their boundless potential to be part of a winning team.

But the players can’t do it alone. The Royals coaching staff has to provide guidance on and off the field to make the Royals a winner. Here’s the men who will lead the Royals into the 2012 Major League campaign.

Manager Ned Yost: This will be the second full season Yost manages the Royals, after replacing Trey Hillman during the 2010 season. Yost managed the Milwaukee Brewers from 2003-2008, leading the Brewers an 83-79 record in 2007, their first winning season since 1992. The following year, the Brewers were 83-67 with 12 games left and on their way to an N.L. Wild Card before a 3-11 September slump and a four game sweep by the Philadelphia Phillies cost Yost his job.

Before managing the Brewers, Yost spent 12 years with the Atlanta Braves Major League staff as a bullpen and third base coach. He also spent parts of six seasons as a catcher for the Brewers, Texas Rangers and Montreal Expos from 1980-1985.

With Yost’s experience managing small-market Milwaukee and his 12 years with the Braves, the Royals believe he is the one who can make the Royals a contender. Whether Yost can led the Royals to the promised land is uncertain, but he will be given every opportunity to succeed since the Royals recently picked up his 2013 option year.

Batting Coach Kevin Seitzer: A Royals player from 1986-1991, Seitzer enters his fourth season as the Royals hitting coach. In 2011, the Royals had a team .275 BA (4th in the A.L.), .329 OBP (5th in the A.L.) and .415 SLG (5th in the A.L.). The team lead the A.L. with 41 triples, second in the A.L. with 325 doubles and third in the A.L. with 1,560 hits. However, the Royals finished 11th in the A.L. with only 129 home runs and 442 walks and 12th in the A.L. with 1,006 strikeouts.

Seitzer’s job this year is to get the lineup to cut down its strikeouts, take more walks, get more men on base and hit for more power, especially home runs. So far the team is buying into Seitzer’s coaching, with Alex Gordon being one of the players he helped make into a better hitter.

Pitching Coach Dave Eiland: With a Major League record of 12-27 and 5.74 ERA over 92 games, Eiland’s career wasn’t stellar. But his five years as a pitching coach in the New York Yankees Minor League system and three years as the Yankees pitching coach from 2008-2010 landed Eiland a job as the pitching coach for 2012, replacing long time pitching coach Bob McClure.

Eiland helped the Yankees win a World Series in 2009, so he knows how to win. However, Eiland has a tough task ahead of him with a suspect starting rotation, but a solid bullpen. In 2011, the Royals finished 12th in the A.L. with a 4.44 ERA, while giving up 557 walks, the most in the A.L. Eiland wants the starting pitchers to pitch into the late innings, using the bullpen to hold leads or give the offense a chance to rally in the late innings if they’re behind. Time will tell if Eiland is up to the challenge.

First Base Coach Doug Sisson: With a long baseball coaching career in college and several levels in the Minor Leagues, Sisson enters his second year as the Royals first base coach. From 2008-2010, Sisson served as the Royals minor league field coordinator, overseeing the Royals minor league system.

In addition to first base, Sisson is also the baserunning and outfield coach. The Royals had a good outfield last year with a career year by Alex Gordon and solid seasons from Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera. Last year, Royals ranked 2nd in the A.L. with 153 stolen bases and caught stealing only 58 times. Sission’s familiarity with the players who came up through the Minors should be an asset to the team.

Third Base Coach Eddie Rodriguez: A baseball lifer, Rodriguez spent six seasons as a Minor League player before having a long and varied career as a Minor League manager and coach. Rodriguez was a coach for several Major League clubs, joining the Royals as the third base coach in 2010.

Rodriguez is also the infield coach and with Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas solidly at the corners, Rodriguez will focus his attention on a middle infield in flux, with projected starters Alcides Escobar at shortstop and Johnny Giavotella at second base. If Rodriguez can help improve the middle infield, the Royals will be a better team this season.

Bench Coach Chino Cadahia: A long career as a coach and manager in the Rangers and Braves Minor League systems, 2012 will be Cadahia’s first season as the Royals bench coach.

Cadahia is also the catching coach and will be responsible for catchers Salvador Perez, Brayan Pena and Manny Pina, depending who makes the Opening Day roster.

In Atlanta, Cadahia spent 2007-2010 as bench coach for manager Bobby Cox. Working with one of the best managers in Major League history and his relationship with Yost in Atlanta should be an asset to Yost and the Royals.

Bullpen Coach Steve Foster: This is Foster’s third season as the Royals bullpen coach, after spending 2007-2009 as the bullpen coach of the Florida (now Miami) Marlins. Foster spent time as a pitching coach in the Marlins Minor League system, a scout for the Tampa Bay Rays and a college head coach and pitching coach. Foster also co-authored the book Lessons From Little League and Life with his father Steve Foster Sr.

Besides answering the bullpen phone properly and making sure the relief pitchers are warmed up and ready to enter the game, Foster will assist pitching coach Dave Eiland and preside over a Royals bullpen which was one of the highlights of the 2011 season.

It’s up to the players to win the games, but it’s up to the coaching staff to make sure the team is in a position to win. If the Royals play well, the coaching staff gets some of the credit. If the Royals stumble, the coaching staff gets a lot of the blame.

As Royals fans we all know about Dayton’s plan. We hear Dayton wants young athletic players to fill his Major League roster. We hear how spacious Kauffman Stadium’s outfield is. Then in 2011 we sign Melky Cabrera coming off the worst season of his career. Offensively, we knew Melky had tools, but defensively we knew he could be atrocious. He was coming off a season where his UZR/150 rating was -25.2 in Atlanta as a CF. Not the worst of his career, but you see my point. After this signing, came the inevitable trade of Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers. This is where our Lorenzo Cain story starts.

Lorenzo was the young up and coming CF of the Milwaukee Brewers. Lorenzo had experienced his first taste of the big leagues in 2010, playing in 43 games. We heard about his athleticism and the defensive tools he was bringing. We clamored for Lorenzo to get the opportunity to start in 2011 as our centerfielder. Lorenzo performed well in spring training, but Melky was promised CF. Staying true to his word to Melky, Lorenzo was off to Omaha. In Omaha, Lorenzo proved he was ready for his chance. In 128 games Lorenzo hit .312 with a .380 OBP. Throughout his minor league progression, he has shown an ability to hit for average and get on base. In 7 minor league seasons, Lorenzo has posted a .295 average and a .368 OBP. This year, Lorenzo had a power surge hitting 16 home runs to go along with his 28 doubles and 7 triples. Will this translate into major league production? This will be the big question going into the 2012 season. Bill James seems to think so. His projections for Lorenzo Cain’s 2012 season show splits of .284/10/58. With his past numbers and the development he has continued to show, it seems we can expect solid offensive production from Lorenzo. By no means should we expect him to produce like Melky did in 2011, but who would have ever thought Melky would have produced the way he did.

That brings us to an aspect Lorenzo brings that no “legitimate” Kansas City CF has had. SPEED! Cain currently may not be a prolific base stealer, but has shown flashes that he knows how to use his speed. More importantly, Lorenzo will be able to use his speed and instincts to patrol the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium. During times that Lorenzo struggles offensively, which is something we can expect from a young player with a long swing, his defense can save runs. When you compare the UZR/150 ratings it can put a player’s defensive value into runs saved. The most fascinating aspect of this statistic is how much defense can off-set a player’s offensive value. Let’s compare recent Kansas City CF’s defensive statistics.

2011 Melky Cabrera

2009 – 10 Mitch Maier

2010 Lorenzo Cain

As you can see from the sample sizes above Lorenzo Cain profiles to be a much better defensive centerfielder than the players who have patrolled centerfield in Kansas City most recently. Lorenzo’s defensive ability will continue to improve as he grows comfortable with his surroundings at Kauffman Stadium. One of my favorite quotes from Lorenzo regarding his defensive ability was taken from an interview with Rob White of the Omaha World Herald. “I like to run around out there and use my legs a little bit,” he said. “I try to get the best reads I can and make plays for our pitchers. It’s always fun to save some runs when you can.” For our young and developing pitching staff this is vital. We witnessed the difference an outstanding defensive SS can make. Adding the additional defensive element up the middle will strengthen our defense significantly.

That brings us back to our initial question. Should We Go Loco For Lorenzo? Since 2004 when David Dejesus made his full time Major League debut we have not had a center fielder to be excited about. If Lorenzo Cain can provide us with David Dejesus like offensive production, which is close to what his current statistics project to be. With the defensive production Lorenzo Cain provides we may have someone special on our hands. Is it time to go Loco? I say why not! Lorenzo still has a lot to prove, but the talent and desire is there. Lorenzo profiles to be one more piece to the championship puzzle we all crave. Let’s Go Loco For Lorenzo!

Eric Homser finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Royals fans probably felt he deserved to finish even higher.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

But perhaps they should count themselves lucky their young star didn’t come closer to winning the award.

Hosmer finished a distant third to Tampa Bay’s Jeremy Hellickson and the Angels’ Mark Trumbo. But Hosmer appears destined to win many more awards. And judging by the Royals’ track record with Rookie of the Year award winners, it’s for the best that he didn’t win this one.

In the Royals’ very first season, Lou Piniella took the award. There was certainly nothing wrong with Piniella’s career, except that not enough of it took place in KC. Piniella had five good seasons with the Royals – he hit .286 with 45 homers and 348 RBI’s during that stretch. But sadly Piniella departed just before he, and the Royals, had their best seasons.

The problem isn’t so much that they traded Piniella. It’s what they received in return.

I’m not old enough to remember the trade of Piniella for reliever Lindy McDaniel, but in hindsight it looks nothing short of senseless. Piniella was 30 at the time of the trade. McDaniel was 38.

McDaniel wasn’t awful, just old. He pitched in 78 games in two seasons in KC, amassing a 6-5 record with two saves. But then he was done. Piniella, meanwhile, played 11 seasons in New York, and had at least six really good years. In all, he hit 102 homers, drove in 766 runs, and finished with a .291 average.

The Royals hope Hosmer doesn’t wind up like the only first baseman in team history to win the Rookie of the Year honor.

Bob Hamelin took the award in a remarkable 1994 strike-shortened season. He belted 24 homers, and his other numbers were pretty impressive too. He batted a respectable .282, with a .388 OBP, .599 SLG, and .987 OPS. Had he been allowed to play a full season in 1994, it is estimated that Hamelin would have hit 32 home runs.

But Hamelin was already 26, battled weight problems and had a history of injuries before his rookie year. Whether due to injuries, poor eyesight, or general lack of ability, Hamelin couldn’t sustain that kind of success. He crashed hard the next season, hitting .168 with just 7 homers.

After another disastrous season in 1996, Hamelin was released just before spring training in 1997. Hamelin bounced back with Detroit that season, pulling it together to hit 18 homers and bat .270. But those two good seasons stand in stark contrast to the rest of his career. Hamelin hit more than a third of his career homers in that magical rookie year and never played more than 110 games in a season.

The third Royal to win the rookie award is definitely the best of the group. At just 22, Carlos Beltran exploded on the big league scene as part of a talented young KC lineup that included Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney and Joe Randa.

Beltran’s 22 homers, 108 RBI’s and .293 average only told half the story. Beltran tore up the base paths as a dangerous leadoff man and flashed his five-tools as a standout centerfielder.

Unfortunately, agent Scott Boras thought Beltran’s star would shine brighter in some other galaxy. In the middle of his sixth season, Beltran was dealt in a blockbuster trade that netted the Royals the marginal talents of Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood.

Beltran was one of baseball’s best for a decade. But in 2009, at just 32, injuries reduced Beltran to just a shadow of his former self. Royals fans look back with regret that one of their greatest players played on just one winning team while in KC.

The last Royal to win Rookie of the Year was Angel Berroa in 2003. Berroa was just one of several shortstops to break the team’s heart during the past decade. Berroa won the award with some impressive numbers for a shortstop – 17 homers and a .287 average. But even in his award-winning season, he struck out a lot and had a low OPS.

Things only got worse from that point. By age 26 the wheels had fallen completely off, and the Royals moved on to another in the string of disappointing shortstops.

So the Royals had two Rookies of the Year who maintained a significant level of success, but left Kansas City in the prime of their careers. And they had two others who dropped off dramatically after their freshman seasons.

Such a drop-off is not a rarity for Rookies of the Year, according to Jeff Zimmerman of Royals Review. He wrote back in late September that more than half of the winners of the award regressed in their second season:

• 12 of 20 saw their AVG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year
• 11 of 20 saw their OBP drop. Overall the average dropped 3 points the next year
• 13 of 20 saw their SLG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year

Note that Zimmerman didn’t specify if those statistics represent the last 20 AL award winners, or the last 10 winners in the NL and AL. But the trend would indicate, regardless, that many top rookies actually perform at a level they cannot sustain.

If Hosmer’s stock trends up instead of down, Royal fans won’t mind a bit that he missed out on the Rookie of the Year award.

After all, another 21 year-old once finished 3^rd in the rookie balloting, and things turned out pretty well for him. His name was George Brett.

Baseball-Reference.com has a list at the bottom of player pages called “Similar Pitchers/Batters” that shows the top ten similar players based on a system created by Bill James. I love the idea behind the similarity scores, but the implementation leaves a lot to be desired. RBI is used as a comparison while OBP is not, and there is no era adjustment. Just a reminder of the obvious point to not read too much into the lists; it is really just a fun toy. But now that the lists have been updated to include the 2011 season, let’s see what the lists have to say about some key Royals players:

• Before the 2011 season, I did a little exercise examining the numbers put up by Billy Butler‘s comparable batters through age 24. I averaged the seasons put up by his comps, which before last season included John Olerud, Kent Hrbek, Nick Markakis, Chet Lemon, Carlos May, Delmon Young, Carl Yastrzemski, Ellis Valentine, Tony Horton, and Keith Hernandez. Those comps ended up projecting a similar season to what Billy actually did in 2011. Here is the average age 25 season by those players compared to Billy’s:

Since Billy followed his comps closely, there was not a lot of turnover among his top ten similar batters this off-season. Off the list are Chet Lemon, Ellis Valentine, and Tony Horton, replaced by Don Hurst, Steve Kemp and Ben Grieve. I have calculated the average age 26, 27, 28, and 29 seasons using the updated comps, shown in the tale below. The age 21-25 seasons shown are Butler’s actual numbers, and the totals at the bottom add together Butler’s actual career to date with the projected age 26-29 seasons. The last line shows where the totals would rank in Royals history right now:

The games played by his comps decrease quite a bit from what Billy has done the last three seasons. Hopefully as a dedicated DH Billy can keep playing 150+ games a year. Even if Billy “only” follows the path of his comparable hitters and stays in KC, he should be around the seventh best hitter in team history when the contract is up, with the possibility of some more productive seasons after that.

• Eric Hosmer has played a grand total of 128 games in the majors, so his comps mean even less than most. Keeping that in mind, it is still a kick to see three Hall of Famers on his list, and that one of them is, um, Willie Mays. Of course, Delmon Young is on there too. The eight retired players on Hosmer’s list put up a 125 OPS+ for the rest of their careers.

• Alex Gordon‘s career to date has been so up-and-down and injury-riddled that I do not put any stock in his list. One exception is Larry Hisle, who was a very similar hitter before Alex’s age 27 season in 2011, including ups and downs and trips to the minors, and had a similarly big year at age 27. Hisle is an encouraging comp because he continued hitting at a high level for the next four seasons, only to be stopped by injury. In my mind, health is the only barrier to Alex continuing as a premiere hitter for many years to come (even if another year like 2011 is unlikely).

• Bruce Chen’s comps pitched an average of three more seasons with an ERA+ of 99.

• Luke Hochevar’s list does not offer any encouragement in the form of a starter who turned a corner after a similarly inauspicious career through the age of 27. I still have hope that Luke figured something out in the second half of 2011 that will allow him to become a decent starter, but the odds are stacked. Interestingly, Hochevar’s top comp, Jose Mesa, never started another game after age 27—but he closed out 632. There have been many games where Hoch cruises for three, four, five innings only to fall apart…he looks a lot like a reliever those days.

• Danny Duffy‘s career is too young for his comps to have any meaning, but one of the names on his list, Jesse Burkett, started like Duffy and ended up in the Hall of Fame. Something tells me Duffy will not be converting to a left fielder and posting a 140 OPS+ over 16 seasons like Burkett did though.

Aaron Stilley also blogs here and tweets here.

There is no doubt that Alex Gordon‘s 2011 campaign ranks among the best seasons by Royals outfielders. Being the Royals addict that I am, I wanted to find out exactly where I think it ranks. Here is what I consider the top ten:

10. Danny Tartabull ∙ 1991 ∙ RF

Tartabull is the only right fielder to slip onto the list (Al Cowens ’77 and Jermaine Dye ’00 were in the running). This is the best purely offensive season a Royals outfielder has ever had, but his lack of speed and defensive range cut harshly into Tartabull’s overall value. He also only played 132 games. But when the bat was in his hands, Tartabull was a force in this last of his five years in KC. If you did not give him anything to hit, he would gladly take a walk or 65. If you gave him something to hit, look out: 33 doubles, 31 homers, and a league-leading .593 slugging percentage. His 171 OPS+ is third in Royals history and tops among outfielders.

9. Amos Otis ∙ 1971 ∙ CF

In his second year with the Royals, Otis lead the league with 52 stolen bases, went to the All-Star game, garnered some MVP votes, and took home a gold glove.

8. Willie Wilson ∙ 1982 ∙ LF

Greased Lightning takes up an impressive three of the top eight seasons. Rate-wise, this was his best hitting season, putting up career highs in average, on-base percentage and slugging. His .332 average was tops in the majors.

7. Willie Wilson ∙ 1979 ∙ LF

Wilson was not especially impressive with the bat this year, but had the best defensive year in Royals history by Total Zone runs and set the team steals record (at an 87% success rate) to put together an overall fantastic season.

6. Carlos Beltran ∙ 2001 ∙ CF

After a rookie of the year campaign in ’99 and a disappointing ’00, Beltran bounced back in a big way in ’01 and has not looked back since in what could end up a Hall of Fame career. As good as he was overall in ’99, his hitting was close to average. Beltran put it all together in ’01: average, walks, power, stolen bases and tremendous defense. He was caught stealing ONCE in 32 attempts.

5. Johnny Damon ∙ 2000 ∙ CF/LF

Damon’s last year in KC was also his best, including league-leading totals in stolen bases (46) and runs (136) and a career high OPS+. He came through in the right spots too: his win probability added matched Amos Otis’s 1978 for best total for a Royals outfielder.

4. Alex Gordon ∙ 2011 ∙ LF

The season that inspired this list ends up all the way down at four. It has been a schizophrenic season for the Royals marked by a ton of losing but also excitement about several individual performances. And as good as Cabrera, Francoeur, Hosmer and others have been, Alex has been in another dimension. He really never slumped, steadily dominating in both halves of innings. He has been the best left fielder in the AL and given the Royals their best season by a position player since, well, the next spot on this list…

3. Carlos Beltran ∙ 2003 ∙ CF

The surprising team success in 2003 is largely considered a fluke, but Beltran’s superlative contributions to the team were very real.

2. Amos Otis ∙ 1978 ∙ CF

Game-for-game, I would take this season ever so slightly as the best ever by a Royals outfielder. It was the best by win probability added (4.6). But Otis missed a handful of games, giving the slight advantage to…

1. Willie Wilson ∙ 1980 ∙ LF/CF

This incredible season is overshadowed by George Brett’s 1980, the best year a Royals player ever had. Wilson deserves more recognition for his ’80 season though. It is probably the best by a Royals position player other than Brett’s best years. Willie’s team records set in 1980 for plate appearances (745) and hits (230) still stand, and his stolen bases and runs scored (133) are both second in franchise history. Willie did not walk a lot, but he did not need to when he was putting up as many hits and stealing as many bases as he was in 1980. On top of all those hits, Willie reached base on errors 17 times, a reflection of how terrifying his speed was to the opposition.

On the surface, the 2011 Royals season is just another in a long string of terrible won-lost records. Their record will not look much different from any other year of the Dayton Moore era, which has not looked much different from the Allard Baird years in terms of wins and losses. But anyone paying close attention should see that this year has been different below the surface in some positive ways. Most importantly, the roster is bursting at the seams with youth and promise. And while the pitching has been a mess, the offense has already turned itself into an asset. With the season’s end near, the numbers are clarifying just how different this offense has been than most in recent Royals history.

photo by Minda Haas, mindahaas.net

Rany Jazayerli uncovered how rare the combined doubles prowess of Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera has been. They have a shot to become the first quartet of teammates to record 42 doubles in a season. As a team, the Royals’ 287 doubles is already the 13th most in team history. They are on pace for 323, which would be second only to the 2006 team that hit 335. (The ’06 squad was not as top-heavy with doubles hitters as this year’s team, but 14 different Royals hit at least 10. They were a bad offense in general, but they sure hit doubles.)

Most doubles per 162 games in Royals history:

The power extends somewhat to home runs too. No individual player is setting the world on fire, and the team is only 11th in the AL in homers, but between Butler, Gordon, Francoeur, Cabrera and Eric Hosmer, the Royals already have five 15+ HR guys for just the fifth time in team history (’77, ’87, ’00, ’03).

While the team ranks only ninth in the AL in walks, their high average (.270) bumps them all the way up to fifth in on base percentage. The AL average OBP has fallen all the way to .322 this season. The Royals are at .328 as of this writing, making them one of only five AL teams to have an above-average team mark. The other four teams (Boston, New York, Detroit and Texas) are probably headed to the playoffs. The below chart plots how the Royals’ OBP has compared to the AL average every year:

The team has been underwater most years since 1983, but is peeking up above sea level for the second straight year in 2011. The last two year stretch above average was 1989-90. No Royals team has finished this high above average since 1982. Zooming in on the post-strike period shows how different the ’10 and ’11 Royals teams have been in terms of OBP:

While this is a major improvement by the Royals past standards, it still is pretty much average overall. The team’s slugging percentage is exactly average (.406). So no surprise that the Royals have been almost perfectly average when it comes to crossing the plate: The AL average runs per game right now is 4.43, and the Royals have scored 4.44. The last Royals team to score an above average number of runs was also the last team to have a winning record: 2003.

The question now becomes if the 2012 version of the Royals can sustain or improve upon this level. The short answer would appear to be yes. The names in 2012 are going to look a lot like the names have in the second half of 2011. There are a few candidates to regress significantly, namely Gordon, Cabrera and Francoeur. Still, regressions from those three could be more than offset by expected improvements from Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, a full year of Johnny Giavotella instead of Chris Getz at second, and a full year of Salvador Perez. Pitching is an entirely different story, but the Royals offense appears to be entering an era of respectability not seen in Kansas City for a very long time.

What to do with Skip Schumaker? What not to do with him? Both are important questions for the Cardinals this offseason. Since coming onto the scene for the Cardinals in 2005 Skip has done any and all things asked of him by the organization.

Making his way to The Show as an outfielder with a rocket arm Skip saw limited action in ’05 & ’06 totaling only 78 at bats those first two years. Finally in 2007 Skip earned a role as a 4^th outfielder and bench player. Rewarding their faith in Skip in return gave the Cardinals a .333 batting average, .358 OBP and a .458 slugging percentage in 188 plate appearances.

This was enough to move him into an everyday role for 2008. Still playing all three outfield positions Skip continued his strong play. In 594 plate appearances Skip showed he could do perform full time delivering with a .302 BA, .359 OBP and 22 doubles and a career high 8 HR’s. To boot, he finished the year with a .990 fielding percentage.

And how was he rewarded for his performance…he was moved to second base. Now asking a 9-year old little leaguer to learn a position is one thing, asking a 28-year old major leaguer to do it is another. He was not moving from left field to right, he was moving from the outfield, in. Skip spent all of spring training 2009 learning to play. He didn’t want to play 2B, but he did want to be a Cardinal. This is what the organization asked and this is what he did.

Skip now in his third season as the Cardinals primary second baseman has continued to deliver. I am not claiming Skip is the second coming of Rogers Hornsby. He is not, but it’s not his fault either. He did not ask to play second base, he did it for the club. Through all the fan, media and blogger criticism he has in fact gotten better.

After a dip in 2010, the only time as a regular player his average fell below .300 Skip is back at his career averages. Coming last night’s Brewers tilt he was batting .302 and his OBP back up to .346. Perhaps most impressive, his fielding percentage as a second baseman is at a career high in 2011 at .985.

Skip is a valuable weapon in Tony LaRussa’s arsenal and will be for TLR or whoever is sitting in the manager chair in 2011. In a step to raise his value even more Skip took to the mound this year. Striking out two in his one inning and showing off that arm for the radar gun.

My point is this. You do not need to pay Skip Schumaker $5 million a year. But you do not, you cannot let him walk away.

As usual these are just my thoughts…keep on reading and you’ll get up to speed.

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