On September 22, a rain delayed Thursday afternoon game, the Cardinals lost a heartbreaker to the New York Mets. Trailing Atlanta by just 1 1/2 games, the Cardinals were just three outs from closing that gap to just a single game, when a tired and perhaps over-used bullpen blew up, and the Mets won.

I70-baseball writer, Dathan Brooks, suggests that the loss is not the end of the season in his most recent article, If Ya Gotta Lose (And You Do), Lose That Game. We now know that the Cardinals also lost the following game to the Cubs, making it that much more difficult to win the NL Wild Card. With fans suddenly exiting the Cardinals bandwagon, I thought it might be interesting to look back at some other disappointing losses, to see if we can put that Thursday afternoon catastrophe in some sort of perspective.

The list started with ten through six in a previous post, which can be read here. With that as background, here are my top five Most Disappointing Cardinal losses.

5. October 8, 2009 – Los Angeles 3, St. Louis 2

Chris Carpenter had pitched the opening game of the 2009 National League Divisional Series on short rest, and it looked like it. The Dodgers were hitting the former Cy Young winner hard, and often. They had taken Game One, at home, but were still looking like the underdog in this series.

That was apparent when Cy Young hopeful, Adam Wainwright pitched one of the best games in his short career. 8 innings, 3 hits, 7 strikeouts and just one walk – in a must win game. A Colby Rasmus double in the seventh inning would give the Cardinals a 2-1 lead. It was still 2-1 when Ryan Franklin took the mound with one out in the bottom of the ninth. Manny Ramirez would fly out to center field for the second out. One more out, and the Cardinals would leave Los Angeles with a split in the series, and all of the momentum.

Oops

That’s what we all thought would happen when James Loney lines out to left field. But Matt Holliday lost the ball in the lights, and dropped it for a two base error. Two walks, a passed ball, and two singles later, the Dodgers won the game, and the 2009 season came to an end for the Cardinals.

Oh, there was still one more game to be played, Game Three in St. Louis. That was just a formality as a truly defeated Cardinals team just went through the motions for nine innings to complete the Dodgers sweep.

It is hard to believe that there are more disappointing losses than this one, but there are.

4. October 1, 1974 – Montreal 3, St. Louis 2

This is a game that has been somewhat forgotten over the years, and it is unfortunate. The Cardinals and Pirates entered the last game of the season in a tie for first place. The winner of the division will have the monumental task of playing the Cincinnati Reds at the peak of their Big Red Machine days.

The two teams were playing their respective games at nearly the same time, so there was a huge emotional swing as we paid as much attention to the scoreboard as we did to the game we were watching.

The Cubs would take an early lead against the Pirates, as would the Cardinals in their game with the Expos. Bob Gibson was on the mound for St. Louis, and while he had struggled though injury and sore legs through most of the season, he was vintage Gibson in this game. As the clock passed through 8:15 pm in St. Louis, it seemed as if the Cardinals would win the National League east. By 8:30, that all changed on a pair of home runs, one in Pittsburgh, the other in Montreal. Pittsburgh would win the NL East by one game, and St. Louis would not return to post-season for nearly a decade.

This is perhaps an alternate ending for the fans who questioned Tony La Russa’s decision to remove Chris Carpenter from a tie game with the Cubs on night following the Thursday Afternoon Meltdown. Like Gibson, Carpenter had struggled through most of the season, but had found one more A+ game. Red Schoendienst chose not to remove Gibson, and he would end up taking the loss.

There is a huge difference between these two. Gibson’s game was a must win, Carpenter’s was just a really good one to win. That’s the difference between game 162 and 156. There is still time in 2011.

3. October 2, 1964 – New York (NL) 1, St. Louis 0

After nearly completing a miraculous comeback in 1963, the Cardinals again found themselves in a playoff race in the final series of the season. Holding a slim one game lead over the Reds and Phillies, and facing the New York Mets, still playing like an expansion team, you had to like your chances if you were a Cardinals fan.

Oh, let’s also add in that Bob Gibson, winner of 17 games so far, was on the mound for the Cardinals. Bring on the Yankees.

Not so fast. Al Jackson, the little left-hander with an awful career win/loss record had a different idea. Ed Kranepool would single home George Altman in the third inning for the Mets. It would be the only run of the game as Jackson throws a complete game shutout. The little guy that would flirt with no-hitters several times in his career, held the Cardinals to just 5 hits.

To make matters worse, Ray Sadecki would get bombed in the next game as the Mets won, 15-5. Johnny Keane was forced to use eight pitchers in the game, which left his bullpen in shambles for the final game. What looked most promising on Friday night, was now a Sunday afternoon nightmare.

When Curt Simmons struggled in the final game, Keane took a chance and went to Bob Gibson, pitching on one day rest after throwing 8 innings. It was the gutsiest performance in Cardinals history, pitching on fumes while the Cardinals bats finally woke up, giving him his 18th win.

That final weekend in 1964 was supposed to have been played without any drama.

2. October 10, 1968 – Detroit 4, St. Louis 1

Denny McLain, Mickey Lolich and the Detroit Tigers had an amazing season, but they were supposed to be just a speed bump on the Cardinals path to their second consecutive World Series title, the third in five years. That was apparent when Bob Gibson dominated in Games One and Four, and the Redbirds steamrolled to a 3 games to 1 lead. It didn’t matter that the Tigers had roared back to force a Game Seven, so did the Red Sox a year earlier.

For the first six innings in Game Seven, this was as good as baseball gets. Mickey Lolich and Bob Gibson are putting up zeros at an alarming rate. The turning point in the game happened in the home half of the sixth inning. Both Lou Brock and Curt Flood were picked off first base. That just didn’t happen, especially to those two. The momentum swung to the Tigers side of the diamond, and they capitalized in the top of the seventh.

Bob Gibson would quickly retire Mickey Stanley and Al Kaline to start the inning. What happens next caught the entire baseball world off guard. Nobody was concerned when Norm Cash and Willie Horton singled – this was Bob Gibson. Then the unthinkable – Jim Northrup rips a line drive into left center field. Curt Flood had been playing Northrup to pull the ball, so was shading him to right field, and somewhat shallow. Flood misread Northrup’s hit initially, and then slipped on the wet turf as he tried to correct his path to the ball. It flies well over Flood’s head and rolls all the way to the wall for a 2 run triple.

That would prove to the the game winner, as Lolich goes the distance and earns the win.

That brings us to THE most disappointing loss. Although we still argue about why the Cardinals lost this game, I doubt that there is any debate about this being the worst loss in Cardinals history.

1. October 26, 1985 – Kansas City 2, St. Louis 1

This game is remembered for Don Denkinger’s ninth inning call that, more than 25 years later, still divides a state. One half wants the other half to get past it, while the other half still have video tapes of the game buried somewhere in a closet.

What has been forgotten about this game are the performances of the two starters, Danny Cox for the Cardinals and Charlie Leibrandt for the Royals. Of the three big horses at the top of the Cardinals rotation, Cox was the guy you wanted on the mound in a must-win game. And he pitched a gem, going seven scoreless innings, striking out 8.

But Leibrandt was just as effective, as the Vince Coleman-less Cardinals just couldn’t do much against the Royals lefty.

The game was still scoreless in the eighth when pinch hitter, Brian Harper singled with two outs, driving in Terry Pendleton. That gave the Cardinals a 1-0 lead with just six outs from a World Series title. Ken Dayley worked a quick bottom of the eighth inning to set up the now famous “Call”.

The Call

Todd Worrell would take over for Dayley in the ninth inning. Worrell had been called up just before the September 1 post-season eligibility deadline and had taken over as the Cardinals closer. To underscore his level of experience, he had not appeared in enough games to lose his rookie status for the following season. That’s what makes the first play in ninth inning such a tragedy.

Jorge Orta starts things off by hitting a ground ball to Jack Clark at first base. He tosses the ball to Worrell, covering first base. That’s one mistake. It is still unclear what Don Denkinger thought he saw, but he called Orta safe at first base. Then the wheels came off, and quickly.

Steve Balboni hits a pop up over in foul territory behind first base. Jack Clark gives chase, and is unable to make the catch. That’s mistake number two. Balboni takes advantage of Clark’s miscue by hitting a sharp single.

Jim Sundberg tries to help the Cardinals cause by bunting the ball back sharply to Worrell, and he is able to throw out the lead runner at third base.

Then comes the final mistake, a passed ball. If any of Denkinger’s call, Clark’s error or Darrell Porter‘s inability to block Worrell’s pitch in the dirt don’t happen, the Cardinals probably win the game. But all three did, and that set up the winning run.

With runners at second and third with just one out, Whitey Herzog has no choice but to intentionally walk Hal McCrae to load the bases. That brings Dane Iorg to the plate, and he delivers a walk-off two run single against his former club. The Royals win 2-1, and that forces a Game Seven.

Game Seven seven was a complete disaster. It was a combination of a complete Cardinals meltdown and a terrific pitching performance by Bret Saberhagen. St. Louis would be embarrassed 11-0 and the Kansas City Royals would win the only World Series in their franchise history – at least so far.

Those are my top 10. And no, the Thursday Afternoon Disaster does not make the list. Do you agree or disagree ? Please let me know in the comments section.

Bob Netherton covers Cardinals history for i70baseball.com and writes at On the Outside Corner. You may follow Bob on Twitter here or on Facebook here.

On September 22, a rain delayed Thursday afternoon game, the Cardinals lost a heartbreaker to the New York Mets. Trailing Atlanta by just 1 1/2 games, the Cardinals were just three outs from closing that gap to just a single game, when a tired and perhaps over-used bullpen blew up, and the Mets won.

I70-baseball writer, Dathan Brooks, suggests that the loss is not the end of the season in his most recent article, If Ya Gotta Lose (And You Do), Lose That Game. We now know that the Cardinals also lost the following game to the Cubs, making it that much more difficult to win the NL Wild Card. With fans suddenly exiting the Cardinals bandwagon, I thought it might be interesting to look back at some other disappointing losses, to see if we can put that Thursday afternoon catastrophe in some sort of perspective.

With that as background, here are my top 10 Most Disappointing Cardinal losses.

10. July 6, 2010 – Colorado 12, St. Louis 9

August 2010 was one of the hardest months to be a Cardinals fan. It simply could not have ended soon enough. Agonizing loss after agonizing loss. Looking back a year later with more of an objective eye, this game in Colorado was really the turning point in the 2010 season.

The Cardinals had put runs on the scoreboard in four consecutive innings. Heading into the bottom of the ninth inning, they had a commanding 9-3 lead. All Dennys Reyes needed to do was get three outs. Reyes and Ryan Franklin could only retire two before a 3 run walk-off home run by Seth Smith sent he few remaining fans into a frenzy. Colorado would send 11 men to the plate in that inning, and nine would score.

But it didn’t end there. The next game would also end on a walk off home run. This time it was a solo blast off the bat of Chris Ianetta. Cardinals reliever Evan MacLane was making his major league debut, and the first batter he faced was Ianetta. For the next 11 days, MacLane’s ERA was infinity. The blame for this loss does not lie on MacLane’s shoulders alone because Trever Miller, Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs combined to give the Rockies three runs in the previous inning. Once again, the bullpen could not hold a big lead late.

In the series finale, the Rockies would finish off the three game sweep – at least this time it was not a come from behind win.

9. June 9, 1999 – Kansas City 17, St. Louis 13

This was just a strange game. It went back and forth for the better part of four hours. The Cardinals would collect 18 hits, including home runs by Mark McGwire, Eli Marrero and Fernando Tatis. The score would be tied at 9 runs each as Kansas City came to bat in the bottom of the eighth inning. With one out, Scott Radinsky would put a pair of runners on base with a hit and a walk. Tony La Russa went to his bullpen for former Phillies closer, Ricky Bottalico. Bottalico would face 8 men, retiring just one. When the dust finally settled, Kansas City had a 17-9 lead.

To add to the disappointment of this game, the Cardinals would score four runs in the top of the ninth, but it wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to make up for the 8 they surrendered in the previous inning.

The 1999 Cardinals would fall to .500 with the loss, and all hopes for a post-season berth went with it. They would hover around the .500 mark for the remainder of the summer, until a September collapse made it a season to forget.

8. October 14, 16 and 17, 1996

Pick any one of these three games. These are the final three games of the 1996 National League Championship Series between the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals. Both teams had made a strong statement by sweeping their opponents in the divisional series, Atlanta defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cardinals beating the San Diego Padres. The 1996 NLCS was shaping up to be quite a series.

Andy Benes and John Smoltz hooked up in the first game, and it was just as good as everybody had hoped. The game went into the bottom of the 8th tied at two runs each. The Braves took a page out of the Cardinals playbook when they played small ball to score two runs on an ineffective St. Louis bullpen. As many disappointing losses do, it started with a leadoff walk, and then two relievers later, Javy Lopez singles with the bases loaded, giving Atlanta a two run lead. Atlanta takes the first game.

A five run outburst in the seventh inning of Game Two would make a winner out of Todd Stottlemyre. As in the previous game, the big blow would come with the bases loaded. This time it would be Gary Gaetti with a grand slam off Greg Maddux, putting the game out of reach.

A pair of Ron Gant home runs off Tom Glavine gave the Cardinals the win in Game Three. Donovan Osborne pitched a great game, and a combination of Mark Petkovsek, Rick Honeycutt and Dennis Eckersley held the lead for the final two innings.

Game Five has one of the most unusual innings in any box score I’ve ever seen. If you didn’t know better, you would swear there is an error. Starter Andy Benes gets roughed up in the sixth, and three relievers later, his younger brother Alan comes in to finish the inning. With the Braves in control, and with a three run lead, Denny Neagle runs out of gas in the seventh. The Cardinals would score three runs in that inning, the big blow being a Dimitri Young pinch hit triple. Brian Jordan would give the Cardinals the game winner with a solo home run in the bottom of the 8th.

The Cardinals led the series 3-1, and had won the last three games. They had beaten the two of the best starters the Braves had, and had feasted on their bullpen. Just one game away from another trip to the World Series. But alas, that never happened.

It’s not that the Cardinals lost the final three games, it’s how they lost them. The once dependable starting rotation just couldn’t silence the Braves bats. And once Atlanta started hitting, it seemed like everybody hit. Atlanta would win Game Five by the score of 14-0, and that was not the worst loss. Game Six would be closer, but the Cardinals could not get anything started against Greg Maddux, and lose 3-1. The worst of the three would be in the finale, when the Braves score 15 runs in a Game Seven shutout. The Cardinals would be outscored 32-1 in those final three games. John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were unbelievable in those three games.

7. May 30, 1967 – Cincinnati 2, St. Louis 1

This game was disappointing on three different levels. First, rookie starter Dick Hughes had suffered through a long rain delay to take a perfect game into the eighth inning. Three hits later, the Reds had a 2-1 lead. Second, and more important, it was how the game ended. A pair of singles by Orlando Cepeda and Tim McCarver put runners on the corners with no outs in the top of the ninth. Cepeda was the tying run, and McCarver the potential go-ahead run. Pinch hitter Phil Gagliano grounds out to short. Cepeda breaks late off third, once he sees that the Reds are conceding the tying run by turning the double play. But he is thrown out at home, completing a game ending triple play.

That brings us to the third level of disappointment, that win gave Cincinnati the series win and knocked the Cardinals 2 1/2 games behind in the National League. The team at the top – Cincinnati.

Fortunately, this game happened early in the season, and not in the final two weeks. It proved to be a test of character for a team, and it actually made them play harder. They would soon overtake Cincinnati, and despite losing two of their top starters to injury, the Cardinals would coast into the 1967 World Series.

6. June 23, 1984 – Chicago 12, St. Louis 11 (11 innings)

The Ryne Sandberg Game. As I-70 Baseball editor, Bill Ivie says, “it should have been known as the Willie McGee game”. But it isn’t.

This Saturday afternoon game at Wrigley Field was a national telecast. A big audience tuned in to see Willie McGee put on an offensive show as he would go 4-6 in the game. Those four hits were, in order: a three RBI triple, single, two run homer, and finally an RBI double. He would complete the cycle with that double, but he has to thank Ryne Sandberg for it. If the Cubs second baseman had not led off the bottom of the ninth with a solo home run, McGee never would have had the chance to hit the double. Sandberg’s home run tied the game at 9. To make matters worse, it came off Bruce Sutter.

Oh, we aren’t anywhere close to being done with Sutter and Sandberg.

That McGee double would give the Cardinals a 10-9 lead in the 10th. A pair of infield groundouts would score McGee for an 11-9 lead. Bruce Sutter is now working the bottom of the 10th for the win, instead of a save. He would again be victimized by Ryne Sandberg. For the second time in two innings, Sandberg hits a home run off the Hall of Fame closer, this time it is a two run shot. Are you kidding me ?

The Cubs would win the game, 12-11, when pinch hitter Dave Owen singles home former Cardinal, Leon Durham with the game winner.

As late as the sixth inning, the Cardinals led 9-3. Another Neil Allen meltdown and a pair of home runs by Ryne Sandberg overshadowed Willie McGee’s amazing day at the plate.

27 years later, it still hurts to think about this game.

Those are the first five of my top 10. And no, the Thursday Afternoon Disaster does not make the list. Do you agree or disagree ? Please let me know in the comments section.

Bob Netherton covers Cardinals history for i70baseball.com and writes at On the Outside Corner. You may follow Bob on Twitter here or on Facebook here.

I-70 continues its look at the NL Central with a stop in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee has been a darling of the off-season, if for no other reason than acquiring Zack Greinke from the KC Royals. For years, Milwaukee has had a highly potent offense, questionable defense, and substandard starting pitching. In 2008, when they won the NL Wild Card, it was only after they fortified their rotation with CC Sabathia. Looking ahead to 2011, getting Greinke immediately vaults the Brewers from fringe contender to bona-fide challenger for the NL Central title.

So much for the build-up; let’s see how they stack up against the Cardinals.

First Base – Prince Fielder vs Albert Pujols. Now that Adrian Gonzalez is in Boston, Fielder is the second-best offensive first baseman in the National League ( Joey Votto needs to sustain his 2010 excellence for a couple of years). Fielder has been on an every-other year cycle, posting OPS+ of 157 and 166 in 2007 and 2009, but 137 and 130 in 2008 and 2010. If the trend continues, he’s due for a monster season. Fielder has never been known for his glove, and is considered a below average defensive first baseman.

How good is Albert Pujols? An 166 OPS+ would be his third-lowest career season. Fielder has one Silver Slugger; Albert has six, including the last 3 in a row. He has 2 Gold Gloves, and has been ranked #1 or 2 in Dewan Plus/Minus 4 of the last 5 years. Advantage: Cardinals.

Second – Skip Schumaker vs Rickie Weeks. Weeks was the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft, but has never quite lived up to that expectation. Until last season, when he had his finest offensive year (OPS 125+, career high 29 HR). He is the Brewer leadoff hitter, he can steal (although only 11 in 15 tries last season), and he led the league in getting hit by a pitch (25) in 2010. He does strike out a ton (184 in 751 PA). Defensively he regressed from his 2008 campaign, again by Dewan Plus/Minus, and was ranked 32 by that metric.

Schumaker, in contrast, had his worst offensive season since becoming a regular in 2008. He’s always been just average offensively (102 OPS+ in 2008 and 2009), but his OBP dropped 40 points last year and he finished with an 83 OPS+. As has been well documented here and elsewhere, he has had a tough time learning and playing second. His Dewan ranking for 2010 was just ahead of Weeks (31). Advantage: Brewers.

Third – Casey McGehee vs David Freese. McGehee finished fifth in the 2009 Rookie of the Year voting, and followed that strong season with a breakout season in 2010. His 116 OPS+ was fifth best on the club, and he led the team in RBI. He is, however, another all bat/no glove guy on this roster; in 2 seasons, he has ranked 29th and 34th among third baseman using the Dewan runs saved metric.

David Freese remains an intriguing player who has lots of potential but cannot seem to stay on the field. He has yet to play more than 70 games in a season, although in those 70 games last year he put up a 109 OPS+. He only has 600 major league innings at third. Last year Dewan ranked him 21st. The Cardinals hope this is the season he is the full-time third baseman from March to October. Based on their prior performance McGehee is the better player going into 2011. Advantage: Brewers.

Shortstop – Yuniesky Betancourt vs Ryan Theriot. Neither of these players was a member of these teams in 2010. Betancourt played the whole season with KC and came over in the Greinke trade. Yuniesky has one of the game’s most unique games, but that has not prevented him from being one of the worst everyday hitters in the majors throughout his career. Case in point: last season’s 88 OPS+ is the second-highest of his career. He is a defensive liability at short. The last 3 seasons he has posted -14, -20, and -15 runs saved (Dewan again).

Brewer pitchers better be good, because their infield defense is not.

Ryan Theriot started the 2010 season with the Cubs and ended it in Los Angeles. His career OPS+ is almost exactly the same as Betancourts (82 to 84), although last year it was a meager 70. This is because he has no power at all. However, proving that OPS+ is not the be-all and end-all, Theriot has value as a hitter, with a .348 career OBP, easily besting Betancourt’s .296. From 2007-2009 he saved 4, 5, and 5 runs respectively as an everyday shortstop, and although that dropped below 0 in 2010 it’s a better indicator of his true talent level. Advantage: Cardinals.

Catcher – Jonathan Lucroy vs Yadier Molina. Lucroy made his major league debut in 2010 and ultimately had almost 300 PA’s. He had good numbers in the minors (.875 OPS), and his defense seems average to slightly above average. He threw out 29% of would-be base stealers in 2010 while in Milwaukee. Overall, like David Freese he has a lot of potential, but most of it is as yet unrealized.

Molina’s 84 OPS+ last year ended three consecutive years of improvement with the bat. He hit the same number of HR (6) as in 2010 when he posted a 100 OPS+, but ended with 19 fewer singles, 3 fewer doubles, and no triple (although I don’t think we will see many more triples from the man). Defensively he remains the premier catcher in the NL. His 44% of runners thrown out last year was his best percentage since 2007; it’s interesting that teams attempted to steal 63 times against him, the most since 2006. Molina won his third consecutive Gold Glove last season. Advantage: Cardinals.

Left Field – Ryan Braun vs Matt Holliday. Braun is probably the Brewers best all-around everyday player; Holliday is the Cardinals second-best. Braun is the 2007 ROY and has finished in the MVP top 25 every year he’s been in the bigs. He’s won 3 straight Silver Slugger awards. His OPS+ was 133 last year, and his career average is 140. Braun’s real good. His defense is a bit erratic by the Dewan runs saved metric (8th in the rankings for 2008, 34th in 2009, 8th again last season), but we will give him the benefit of the doubt and call him an average to above average left fielder.

Matt Holliday posted a 149 OPS+ his first full season in St Louis, one point short of his best season ever (2007 with Colorado). He also won a Silver Slugger last year, his first since 2008 and fourth overall (disclosure – apparently MLB gives out the Slugger awards like they do Gold Gloves, which is why 2 left fielders can win in the same season). The last 3 seasons he’s also been one of the very best defensive left fielders in baseball, finishing 5th, 3rd, and 3rd in the Dewan rankings.

Holliday is a slightly better fielder and hitter, but Braun is younger. Advantage: Cardinals (barely).

Center – Carlos Gomez vs Colby Rasmus. Gomez only played 97 games during his first season in Milwaukee, his season ending after he was beaned by Cubs rookie Brian Schlitter on August 3 and suffered a concussion. He was having a career year at the plate, posting an OPS+ of 78, his career high. That said, his OBP resembles Betancourt’s, which is not a good thing given speed plays a major role in his game. Defensively he had his worst season in the majors in CF by the Dewan metric (23rd amongst center fielders).

Rasmus is supremely talented and still channeling that talent. He had a great year at the plate (OPS+ of 132), but defensively he graded out worse than Gomez (28th). Rasmus is a much better hitter with their defense being about even. Advantage: Cardinals.

Right – Corey Hart vs Lance Berkman. Hart had a career year in 2010, posting a 132 OPS+ and cranking out 31 HR. He was an All-Star for the second time and cracked the MVP t0p 25 for the first. Dewan’s rankings didn’t think much of his glove, rating him 32nd of all right fielders and -9 on the plus/minus scale.

Berkman is the mystery man on this year’s Cardinal team. In 2010 he posted an OPS+ of 114, his lowest since his 1999 rookie season. He is still recovering from knee surgery. If he can re-discover his bat, and recapture some of his former form in the outfield, he will be a find. Berkman has not played right since 2007. Only 2 years worth of data exist in the Dewan database, and he received a -2 score in 2006 and -5 in 2007 at the position.

Cardinal fans will hold their breath Berkman plays well in 2011, but who’s the better RF going into the season is pretty clear. Advantage: Brewers.

Starters

St Louis will probably start the season with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jamie Garcia, and Kyle Lohse as their starting 5. Milwaukee will counter with Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson.

The Cardinal staff is pretty darn good, something that gets overlooked in all the Phillie and Giant hype. Wainwright was the 2010 Cy Young runner-up and finished 3rd in 2009. Carpenter was the runner-up in 2009 and won the award in 2005. Westbrook was tremendous the second half of last season, Garcia finished third in the ROY voting, and Kyle Lohse is – well – trying to rediscover his 2008 form.

Milwaukee’s no slouch either. Greinke won the 2009 AL Cy Young in KC and had a very solid, if not to the same level of spectacular, season in 2010. Gallardo was second in the NL in K/9 last season. Marcum had an ERA+ of 125 last season with Toronto, Wolf remains a crafty left-hander, and Narveson pitched well in stretches during his first major league season as a starter.

Looking at some of the numbers, the Cardinal 5 posted WAR of 6.1 (Wainwright), 3.7 (Carpenter), 3.2 (Garcia), 2.3 (Westbrook combined between Cleveland and St Louis), and 0.7 (Lohse). Milwaukee’s projected rotation posted WAR of 6.3 (Greinke), 4.6 (Gallardo), 3.5 (Marcum), 0.7 (Wolf), and 1.8 (Narveson) in 2010. That’s pretty close (16 combined WAR for STL, 16.9 for MIL), so that’s how we grade them. Advantage: Even.

Bullpen. Two things make evaluating a bullpen difficult. One is the amount of turnover most teams experience from year to year. The other is any change in management. Milwaukee is no exception when it comes to bullpen turnover. MLB.com lists 10 bullpen arms on their depth chart. No way all 10 men break camp with the big club. Of the names listed, four saw significant work with the club in 2010 (LaTroy Hawkins, Zach Braddock, Kameron Loe, and Manny Parra), and a fifth while with Los Angeles (Takashi Saito). How the bullpen will finally look at the end of spring training is still to be determined, but unless they pratfall Hawkins ($4.25M), Parra ($1.2M), Saito ($1.75M), and Loe ($0.65M) will be part of it. Possibly Sean Green ($0.875K) as well. Brewers relievers were 7th in the NL in WAR with everyone above less Saito and Green, so it does not make much sense to mess with a good thing.

John Axford is the closer. He saved 24 games in 27 opportunities after a one-plus year apprenticeship under Trevor Hoffman. Axford throws a heavy (95 MPH on average) fastball, slider, and curve. He should be better this season.

Turnover is no stranger to the Cardinal bullpen corps, but the same number of folks as Milwaukee has project to return for 2011. Kyle McClellan, Trever Miller, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, and closer Ryan Franklin will be the mainstays. Fernando Salas and PJ Walters look to have expanded roles (Salas made 27 appearances, Walters 7, in 2010). By WAR alone this group is not very good (0.3 in 2010 was the second worst in the NL, and 0.5 was the fourth worst in 2009 with 57% of 2011′s projected bullpen having been in those two). It should be noted that Cardinal relievers threw the fewest innings of any team in the NL in 2009, and the fourth fewest last season. They rely heavily on their starters to get deep into games, so they can get by with just an average bullpen.

Franklin converted 27 saves in 29 opportunities last year.

Ron Roenicke takes over as the Brewers manager. How he will choose to use his bullpen is not well known at this point and will not be until a couple of months into the season. We know Tony LaRussa has as a life mission to ensure he has favorable pitching match-ups at the back of ballgames, so he will use his bullpen frequently and in 99% of cases effectively. That has to be an advantage for St Louis.

If the Brewer bullpen is better LaRussa’s experience counterweighs it. Advantage: Even.

Summary. Milwaukee will challenge Cincinnati as the best offensive team in the NL. They have three offensive holes – shortstop, catcher, and center field. Defensively they will once again be below average. Their pitching will be solid and will probably determine how far they get this season. This sounds remarkably like the Cardinals in 2011. St Louis has 3 offensive holes – second base, shortstop, and third base. They were below average (by UZR/150) defensively last season and will probably be there again this year. Their pitching will be solid and will probably determine how far they get this season.

Considering how even these two teams are going in, if Milwaukee is considered a contender for the division title so too should be the Cardinals.

If the Cardinals harbor any hope of catching the Reds, sweeping this weekend series in St Louis is absolutely essential.

Current Snapshot

St Louis – 69-62, 2nd place NL Central, 8 games behind Cincinnati. The Cardinals return home on a 5 game losing streak, after being swept by the Houston Astros at the conclusion of a horrendous 2-8 road trip. They dropped 5.5 games in the standings on the trip. The Cardinals have led in a game for a total of 3.2 innings since last Saturday. At this point, they may have a better chance of catching Philadelphia for the NL Wild Card, although they sit 5 games back in that race.

Cincinnati – 78-55, 1st place NL Central. Cincinnati is tied for the best record in the National League (Atlanta). They’ve won 4 in a row, 6 of their last 7, and added 103 MPH flamethrower Aroldis Chapman to their bullpen on Tuesday. Truly these are the salad days along the banks of the Ohio River.

St Louis rearranged their rotation so their best three pitchers would throw in this series. On paper the matchups heavily favor St. Louis.

Friday night Jaime Garcia will face Bronson Arroyo. This may be the most even matchup of the series. Garcia has won all three of his 2010 starts against Cincinnati. He beat Arroyo at Busch III on 31 May, and had two hits off Bronson to boot. Arroyo has a lot of history with the Cardinals, having faced them at least 3 times a season since 2006. He last beat St. Louis 16 May, and has not won in St Louis in over two years.

Saturday’s mid-afternoon start will pit Travis Wood against Adam Wainwright. Travis Wood is one of the surprising rookie pitchers on this staff (the others including Mike Leake and Chapman). Wood has pitched very well this season, despite (or perhaps because) only starting two games in Cincinnati. He has never faced St. Louis. He pitched OK in his last start, a 5-inning no decision against Chicago (10 hits, 3 ER, 3 walks). Wood throws a fastball averaging 90 MPH to set up a variety of off-speed stuff. That fastball, and his slider and change, appear to be above average pitches. Wainwright has now lost three straight decisions after winning three straight. His last win was at Cincinnati’s expense. Maybe he can reverse the trend against them too.

Sunday afternoon will showcase Chris Carpenter and Homer Bailey. Carpenter has put together his typical stellar season (14-5, 2.92 ERA). He has not given up more than three earned runs in a game since before the All-Star break. Carp is also 3-0 against the Reds this season, and has beaten them twice in St. Louis. Cincinnati has not lost with Bailey on the mound since he returned to the rotation in August. Opponents have a .320 BABIP off him but only a .626 OPS in that stretch. Bailey has not beaten the Cardinals in St. Louis. He lost at Busch on 1 May.

It’s pretty clear why the two teams have headed in opposite directions over the last week. Over that stretch:

• St Louis: .193/.244/.313 as a team (games in DC and Houston)
• Cincinnati: .303/.382/.545 as a team (games at home and in Milwaukee)

Jay Bruce has been the hottest Red of them all (1.533 SLG in 15 PA). Matt Holliday has been the Cardinal doing the most damage with the bat (.640 SLG in 25 PA). In the MVP race, Joey Votto is hitting .300 and slugging .600 over this stretch, and Albert Pujols is still slugging .520 even though he’s only hitting .200 and in an 0-13 funk right now.

Cardinal struggles were summed up pretty well by Derrick Goold on Thursday.

“Holliday’s homer [Wednesday] was the Cardinals’ first rally with at least two runs in 31 innings. They were held to two or fewer runs in five games on the trip and in eight of their 17 games since last being in first place. … In the past six games, the Cardinals have scored 13 runs. Four of them have not been an RBI or a run provided by Albert Pujols and Holliday.”

Prognosis

Thirty-one games left, seventeen at home. No more off-days this season. The task before the Cardinals now is challenging to say the least. As pointed out in the lede, for any hope of bouncing back to win this division they must sweep this series. Realistically to stay relevant even in the Wild Card race they will need to win 2 of 3. San Francisco is in LA this weekend, while the Phillies host Milwaukee. Can the Cardinals do it? Can they come off the mat? We’ll find out.

Motivated by a bulletin-board ready quote, St Louis steamrolled through Cincinnati and swept the Reds. They hope to carry that momentum home for their next series with the Cubs.

Current Snapshot

St Louis: 64-49, first place NL Central, 1 game ahead of Cincinnati. I’m not sure if Brandon Phillips’ comments woke the team up or not. St Louis is hot; not only are they back in first place, they are riding a three-game winning streak, have won 5 of their last 6, and 9 of their last 12 overall.

Chicago: 48-67, fifth place NL Central, 17 games behind. The Cubs took two of three from St Louis in July, then turned around and lost 11 of their next 13 games. They’ve played the Giants tough this week, but still lost three of four to the NL Wild Card leaders (all three losses in San Francisco’s last at bat).

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday 13 August: Thomas Diamond (0-2, 4.67 xFIP) vs Jake Westbrook (no record, 1.53 xFIP). Diamond was the #10 overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft by the Texas Rangers. He has spent most of his time since then at AA in the Texas farm system. Diamond was claimed off waivers by the Cubs near the end of last season. He was pretty good this season at AAA Iowa, posting a 3.16 ERA and striking out 104 in 108.2 innings. He’s continued the strikeout trend, fanning 11 in 9 major league innings.

Diamond features a fastball, slider, curveball, and change. According to his Fangraphs page, he mostly uses his fastball (67%, 89 MPH) and changeup (20%, 80 MPH). The changeup is his best pitch, probably set up by his fastball.

Westbrook’s ridiculous xFIP is only for his time with the Cardinals. He has never faced the Cubs, which shocks me given all the years he pitched in Cleveland. He does have a history with some of the Cub bats; 3 current Cubs have 21 total plate appearances against him. Sixteen of those belong to Alfonso Soriano, and he’s not enjoyed the experience, posting a .133/.188/.133 line against the right hander.

Saturday 14 August: Carlos Zambrano (3-6, 4.53 xFIP) vs Kyle Lohse (1-4, 5.13 xFIP). If Reggie Jackson was ‘the straw that stirs the drink‘, then Carlos Zambrano is ‘the reason for the drink in the first place’. Zambrano started the year in the rotation, was demoted to the bullpen, reinstated as a starter, banned from the clubhouse after an anger-fueled mid-first inning tirade, returned briefly to the bullpen, and is now back in the rotation. No wonder Lou Piniella never shaves anymore. Tuesday was Zambrano’s first start since June 25. He survived five innings, allowed only two earned runs despite walking 7, and did not factor in the decision.

There was a time when Zambrano owned the Cardinals. For almost three full years (12 August 05 to 9 Aug 08) the Cubs beat St Louis every time Zambrano took the mound. Last year he seemed to return to that form; the Cubs won all three games he started against St Louis (Zambrano was credited with the win in only one of those games). This year he has not started a game versus the Cardinals. Both his 2010 appearances have been in relief, once in a blow out loss, and once in a blow out win.

Zambrano throws a fastball, cutter, and split-finger. He is also known to throw a curveball, but rarely. He can still bring the fastball (averages 91 MPH). Only his cutter is a plus pitch anymore. Lots of Cardinals have lots of PA’s against Zambrano, and as a team (in 347 PA) they are hitting .265/.341/.444 off him. Albert Pujols has about 20% of those plate appearances, posting a .272/.347/.574 line in 72 PA.

It is difficult to evaluate Kyle Lohse since his last appearance was 22 May 10. He did throw seven effective innings Tuesday night in AAA, but that gets thrown out the window at the major league level. Lohse better be right, because his career numbers against Chicago are not encouraging (176 PA; .366/.406/.610 allowed). Lohse is 1-3 career vs the Small Bears.

Sunday 15 August: Ryan Dempster (10-8, 4.02 xFIP) vs Chris Carpenter (13-3, 3.79 xFIP). This will be a rematch of the 25 July game in Chicago. Neither hurler factored in the decision, and both had almost the same line (7 IP, 9 H, 3R, 3 ER, 4 K) – the difference being Dempster walked 3 more hitters and gave up a HR (to Pujols). More info on Dempster and Carpenter can be found in this preview.

St Louis has won Carpenter’s last 5 starts in St Louis against the Cubs, dating back to 2005. Ryan Dempster has lost his last 4 starts in St Louis; in fact, his team has only won twice along the Mississippi River when he starts (in 11 tries), and it’s been nine years since the last win.

Prognosis

St Louis is hot, and the team left Cincinnati with a chip on its shoulder. The offense has woken up since the trade deadline, while the pitching remains strong. Chicago is really struggling right now, but playing their arch-rivals might help them snap out of the funk. Based solely on the pitching matchups, St Louis should win Friday and Sunday, and Saturday’s game could be a Wild West-style shootout.

Let’s go with Cardinals win 2 of 3 this weekend. Cincinnati hosts Florida, so this is an opportunity to widen the division lead.