Tag Archive | "Nl East"

What if?

The St. Louis Cardinals entered the final two series of the 2012 regular season with something to play for: the Second Wild Card, which would assure them a one game playoff—the winner of which goes on to play in the NLDS against the playoff team with the best record. But what if the game was still being played under last year’s rules? What would the Cardinals be playing for in these final six games?

A whole lot of nothing, that’s what.

The Atlanta Braves clinched a playoff spot on September 25. The reason it’s only a playoff spot and not the Wild Card is because the Washington Nationals have not yet closed out the National League East Championship. Regardless, without the Second Wild Card, both teams would be in the postseason already no matter how they finish in the regular season standings. Aside from some seeding still to be determined, the playoff brackets would be full and the Cardinals would be on the outside looking in. Ironically, the one thing the Cardinals could do this weekend is help the Braves keep the door open to winning the NL East by beating the Nationals. That’s actually true with or without the Second Wild Card, but this season the Cardinals need the wins. Otherwise they would be relegated to the role of spoiler at best. And after what transpired at the end of the 2011 regular season, what an interesting discussion that would spark.

Imagine the questions that would surround the team without the opportunity in front of them: Was Mike Matheny the right guy for the job? How much can injuries be blamed for the Cards’ shortcomings? Did they need to spend the money on Carlos Beltran? Are they regretting letting Albert Pujols get away? Do you think Tony La Russa and/or Dave Duncan would come back? Should other coaches on the staff be let go? What does John Mozeliak need to do in the offseason to right the ship? When a champion comes back and falls woefully short the next year, these are the types of things people talk about. Some of those questions may get asked of the Cards in the offseason anyway. But the perspective and, consequently, the answers are so different between a playoff year and a non-playoff year.

Even the roster can be drastically affected. Perhaps the Cardinals would have shut down ailing players like Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday for the season by now. Perhaps Chris Carpenter would not have come back at all, or the Cards would have taken a page from the Stephen Strasburg files and backed Adam Wainwright off in the interest of the long-term. After all, what would be the rationale for pushing these guys after elimination, knowing they are under contract for 2013? There would be none. And we’d probably be seeing even more players from the Cards’ system up with the big club.

Last year, one of the rallying cries was “11 in ‘11,” and the Cardinals did indeed win their 11th World Championship in 2011. It also took 11 wins to get there: three Division Series wins, four National League Championship Series wins, and four World Series wins. Naturally, the fan base turned their attention to longing for “12 in ‘12” before the confetti had even been swept up from the parade through downtown St. Louis last October. The funny thing is, without the need to win a 12th postseason game created by the Second Wild Card, the Cardinals would have no shot to fulfill that longing this season. And that would really trigger some what ifs.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

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The Wizard’s finest year

St Louis Cardinals fans rejoice in Ozzie Smith’s return to the spring training fold.  Seeing the older but still fit Wizard in uniform brings back fond memories of his 15 seasons in the St Louis infield.  Twenty-five years ago, during the last of Whitey Herzog’s runs to the World Series, Ozzie enjoyed his finest season along the banks of the Mississippi.

The Cardinals entered the 1987 season as a question mark.  For the second time in the decade they had followed up a World Series appearance with a sub-.500 season.  No one expected them to challenge the New York Mets for NL East supremancy; the 1986 World Champs were coming off an 108-win season and looked like a budding dynasty.  Over the first week of the 1987 season, that future appeared to be today, as the Mets won six of their first 8 while St Louis stumbled out of the blocks.  The Cardinals were two games back of New York when the Mets came to town for an early 3-game series.

New York did not roll over the Cardinals on their way to the post-season.  Instead, St Louis swept the Mets, and rarely looked back.  They never trailed by more than a game in April and early May, took sole possession of first place permanently on 22 May, led by 9 games at the All-Star Break, and won their third NL East title in 6 years.

In the middle of this Cardinal resurrection was Ozzie, who had the best offensive year of his career.  It was the only year he hit over .300 (.303).  He set career highs in OBP (.392), hits (182), doubles (40), RBI (75), runs scored (104), stolen bases (43), walks (89), and total bases (230).

Those career highs compared favorably with the rest of the league.  He finished eighth in batting average, eighth in runs, third in hits, second in doubles, sixth in walks, seventh in stolen bases, and was fourth in at bats per strikeout. He was the only player in the top 10 of all those categories.   By Baseball Reference’s calculations, his WAR of 7.1 was fifth-best in the NL, behind Tony Gwynn, Eric Davis, Dale Murphy, and Orel Hershiser.  Broken into categories, his offensive WAR was seventh, his defensive WAR third.

As seemed to be the trend with those 1980s Cardinals teams, they quit hitting in the post-season.  In years past Smith had hit in the NLCS but struggled in the World Series, but in 1987 he struggled in both.  Ozzie hit only .207  combined (11 for 53) that October, and although St Louis rode home-field advantage and superior starting pitching to the NL pennant, they were bested by Minnesota in the Fall Classic.

Ozzie had some good years after that, and some years with better power numbers, but he never quite reached the heights he had in 1987.

It’s a shame he and Tony LaRussa could never find common ground, and that LaRussa had to retire before Ozzie was willing to come back to Spring Training.  Although it’s not the same without Don Tony, the team is better with Ozzie teaching the finer points of middle infield defense to a new generation of Cardinal players.

Welcome back, Ozzie.

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Playoffs Provide Endless Possible Ironies For Cardinals, And That’s A Good Thing

Thanks to an improbable come-from-behind victory in Game 2 of the NLDS, the Cardinals now arguably have the upper-hand in this best-of-five series against the team that helped get the Redbirds into the playoffs to begin with. It’s an ironic twist of fate that everyone knew was possible when the Phillies went toe to toe with the Atlanta Braves during the last three games of the regular season, who the Cardinals were desperately trying to catch in the National League Wild Card race.

The Phillies had a couple of things to consider that series: 1) Do we want to rest our star players for the playoff run? 2) Do we want to knock the struggling Braves out of the playoffs and face the red hot Cardinals in the 1st round? We could just keep the Braves in and play the Arizona Diamondbacks. 3) Do we need to step it up and right the ship before the playoffs begin (Phillies had lost 8 of 9 games since clinching the NL East title)?

Fortunately for the Cardinals, the Phillies chose No, Yes, and Yes… and the Cardinals squeaked into the playoffs on the last day of the season. Ironically, the Cardinals now have a chance to come back to Busch Stadium with a chance to knock Philadelphia out. But the ironies don’t end there.

Rematch with Milwaukee

Raise your hand if you’d like to see the Cardinals get another shot at their division rivals to the north? The Brewers played a role helping the Cardinals back into the playoffs, too… going 1-5 against St. Louis down the stretch run when they had all but locked up the division title. When the Brew Crew last played St. Louis September 7th, the Cardinals were still 7 ½ games out of a playoff spot with 19 games to go. Resident pest, Nyjer Morgan, lit a fire under the Cardinals, apparently yelling and taunting them so much that ace Chris Carpenter finally decided to yell back after striking him out. Morgan then threw chewing tobacco in Carp’s direction, leading to a benches-clearing situation. After the brief encounter, Morgan called Albert Pujols “Alberta” and Cardinals’ Manager Tony La Russa said Morgan needed to “Get a clue.” Much of the trash talk from Morgan, one would think, came with the assumption that it would be the last time the Brewers played the Cardinals this season. But now, who knows.

In early August, you might recall LaRussa going off at the Brewers, accusing them of pitching dangerously to Albert Pujols after he was hit in the hand with a pitch high and tight. Later in the game, Ryan Braun was thrown at twice by Jason Motte, who drilled the Brewers slugger square in the back with his second pitch.

Overall, the Brewers and Cardinals split a season series of 18 games with 9 wins apiece? Who wouldn’t want to see this epic battle between two division rivals continue for another 7 games to settle the score once and for all?

World Series Possibilities

There would also be an number of storylines worth following no matter who the Cardinals face in the World Series, should the team get that far. The most ironic matchup would be with the Texas Rangers, who had a chance to add a huge bat to their lineup and give the Cardinals a knockout punch once and for all. I’m talking, of course, about the Lance Berkman trade that wasn’t. Berkman was the talk of the Major League Baseball trade rumors in late August. Texas was looking to add an impact bat, and the Cardinals were seemingly sellers who were out of the race and would be willing to deal a soon-to-be free agent. The Cardinals put Berkman on waivers at the 11th hour, but Texas wouldn’t up the ante enough and the deal never happened. The trade would’ve almost certainly kept the Cardinals out of the playoffs, and obviously would’ve kept Texas pitchers from facing Berkman in the World Series.

Adding to the ironies, the New York Yankees, who as you might recall can buy pretty much any baseball free-agent they want, elected not to resign Berkman in the offseason after Lance had a disappointing stretch run with the club. Meeting New York in the World Series would give Berkman a chance for some payback, and to prove himself, against his former team.

Should the Tampa Bay Rays square off with the Cardinals, it would be a matchup of the two miracle teams from the regular season. These teams have already become the teams with the biggest (Rays) and second biggest (Cardinals) September comebacks in baseball history, so why not become the first 2 wildcard teams ever to meet in the Fall Classic?

And the Detroit Tigers, of course, would provide a rematch of the 2006 World Series… a year in which, like this season, nearly everyone gave up on the Cardinals’ chances.

Pujols’ Prime

Much has been written over the past couple months about how the Cardinals’ have essentially “wasted” the Prime Years of the best player in baseball. “How,” they asked, “could the Cardinals only make the playoffs once in 5 years and not win a playoff game with Albert Pujols anchoring their lineup?”

The Cardinals, who are locked in a 1-1 series tie with the Phillies, obviously have a long way to go in the playoffs before they reach the World Series, but image how the tune would change if they pulled off the unthinkable and made it back to the Fall Classic. What was just months ago considered a “wasted opportunity” suddenly sounds like this:

“The Cardinals are back in the World Series for the 3rd time in 8 seasons.”

“Pujols and the Cardinals have won their second World Championship in 6 seasons.”

Funny how one miraculous 5-week playoff run could change everyone’s perspective on the past half-decade.

Winning Streaks

Like the “Pujols’ Prime” discussion, the Cardinals inability to win games in bunches has also been highlighted time and time again. The team put together just one 5-game winning streak all season, and swept only 4 series all season long (not including two 2-game sweeps). But with the way this team is playing right now, I don’t know, it just feels like a 6-game winning streak is coming. Maybe they were just saving it for the playoffs all along? Maybe not. Time will tell.

Got Rings?

Colby Rasmus, Ryan Franklin, Trevor Miller. These names are among those who would be eligible for championship rings. Yes, really.

Injuries and Champions

Injuries to the Cardinals have been a story since virtually Day 1. From Adam Wainwright to David Freese to Matt Holliday to Albert Pujols to Matt Holliday again and about a dozen other key players in between, this Cardinals team had found a way to will itself into the playoffs. It reminds me of another team that did they exact same thing earlier this year, the Green Bay Packers, who won the Super Bowl despite having 19 players on injured reserve (more than a third of the opening day roster).

I’m pretty sure you all have the idea by now. The Cardinals’ playoff run and potential road to the World Series features more irony than the work of William Shakespeare.

As we head into Games 3 and 4 at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals will be looking for their first home playoff win since clinching the team’s last World Series Championship in October of 2006. Jaime Garcia will take on Philadelphia’s former #1 and now #3 ace, Cole Hamel’s, who was roughed up in his final appearance of the season vs the Atlanta Braves. Game 4, Edwin Jackson will take the hill vs I’m assuming Roy Halladay if the Cardinals lead 2-1 and Roy Oswalt if the Phillies lead 2-1.

It should be another heart-stopping, nerve-wracking week of baseball for Cardinals fans as St. Louis continues its series with the National League’s best team. Of course, if the Cardinals go out and breeze by the Phillies, that would just be another thing we could add to our list of ironies.

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Comparing Cardinal And Phillie Starting Pitching

Philadelphia has four outstanding pitchers forming the core of their 2011 rotation – can the Cardinals quartet compete?

Most prognosticators have already ceded the Philadelphia Phillies the NL East, NL Pennant, and World Series Championship in 2011. This is based on the team being able to send a formidable foursome of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels to the hill on a recurring basis. No other team, as the logic goes, can match that rotation for quality and depth.

Well, perhaps Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Baumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez. But let’s not sell Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jamie Garcia short – they can pitch too. How close are these Cardinal hurlers to the new National League gold standard?

Looking at Wins Above Replacement for each pitcher over the past three years, one is amazed at how durable the Phillie starters are. Consider:

  • Roy Halladay WAR (2010-2008): 6.8, 6.6, 7.3
  • Cliff Lee WAR : 6.7, 7.1, 6.6
  • Roy Oswalt WAR: 4.2, 4.7, 3.0
  • Cole Hamels WAR: 4.2, 3.8, 3.6

Now compare that to the Cardinal starters over the same period.

  • Chris Carpenter WAR (2010-2008): 3.7, 5.6, 0.4
  • Adam Wainwright: 6.7, 6.1, 5.7
  • Jake Westbrook: 2.3, missed all of 2009, 0.4
  • Jamie Garcia, 3.2 (rookie season).

Wainwright is as good as any pitcher in the league, and was every bit as good as both Halladay and Lee in 2010. After him there is a significant drop-off. Carpenter was hurt in 2008, Westbrook missed most of 2008 and all of 2009 to injury, and Garcia just completed his first full season in the bigs (after missing 2009 to arm surgery). And let’s not get into Kyle Lohse’s injury history since his bit 2008 season.

Carpenter is certainly still capable of putting up another season close to his 2009 effort, but will probably be in the 3.7-4.2 WAR region for 2011. He is a warrior, but he will also turn 36 next season and has a lot of miles on his right arm (not to mention injuries). Garcia will improve in his second season and will probably be close to Carpenter, perhaps 3.5-4.0 WAR. Westbrook is 33; his best years were 2004-2006, and his best WAR was 4.5 (2006). If he is able to stay healthy all season, he’s probably a Carpenter-level guy (3.7-4.2 WAR). Wainwright will remain one of the best pitchers in the league (6.4-7.2 WAR).

Figure Halladay and Lee to post between 6.3-7.0 WAR, and Oswalt/Hamels to post similar numbers (somewhere in the 4.0-4.7 range).

What does it all mean? It means pitching-wise, this team is still good enough to win the NL Central and make a run in the post-season. It means Cardinal pitchers are pretty good too – perhaps not quite as vaunted a rotation as the Phillies have, but certainly good enough to win 90+ games.

Granted, should they make it to the NLCS, having to face Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt twice each in a 7-game series is a tough task. If the 2006 post-season taught us anything, however, it’s that the playoffs are a crapshoot. In 2010, that lesson was reinforced – who seriously thought the Giants would beat Cliff Lee twice in the World Series?

So let’s not mail Ruben Amaro Jr the National League pennant for 2011 just yet. There’s a pretty good staff working alongside the banks of the Mississippi too.

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September 1964

As the St. Louis Cardinals enter the final month of the 2010 season, they find themselves 5 games behind National League Central Division leaders, the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have been playing exceptional baseball for most of the season, while the Cardinals have struggled, especially against teams in the bottom half of the division. All of this leads to speculation about what it will take for the Cardinals to get into postseason, if that is even possible at this point.

It has happened before, and it will certainly happen again.

Epic Fail

Most recently, the 2007 New York Mets entered September with a 3 game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. They managed to extend this lead to 7 games on September 12. A 5-12 finish, combined with a 13-4 run by the Phillies knocked the Mets out of the playoffs. Even though this is fresh in our memories, this is not the worst collapse in baseball history.

Although it is not mentioned very often, the 1969 Chicago Cubs had an even more devastating late season collapse. A punching bag for much of the 1960s, the Cubs had retooled their lineup and featured one of the most exciting pitching rotations in the game. They had certainly given the Cardinals all they could handle in 1968 and were even better in 1969. During the summer, the Cubs had built up a commanding lead over the reigning NL pennant winners and the upstart New York Mets, leading by as many as 9 games on August 17. When Ken Holtzman threw a no hitter against the Atlanta Braves on August 19, the NL East division title seemed wrapped up. Unfortunately, a 7-7 finish in August and a 9-18 record in September and October doomed the Cubbies as the Mets caught fire and finished the season with a 36-11 sprint, giving them 100 wins for the first time in franchise history and a spot in the first divisional playoff.

Even that was not the worst late season collapse – not even close.

That distinction belongs to the 1964 Philadelphia Phillies, and the benefactor was the eventual 1964 World Series Champions, the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Phillies and Giants had battled for the league lead throughout most of the season, while the Cardinals had stayed around .500. The Phillies would break away from the Giants in early August, building up a commanding lead of 7 1/2 games by August 20. They would maintain this lead for the next month, until the last 12 games of the season.

Meanwhile, both the Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds started playing inspired baseball and tried to catch up to the league leading Phillies. As well both teams played, neither could not make much progress as the Phillies kept pace. Before we look at the last 12 games of the season, a closer look at how the Cardinals did in the final month of the season might help us understand what it might take to repeat this feat in 2010.

The Play Makers

When looking back at the final month of the 1964 season, two players stand out among all of the others. These two men hoisted the team upon their shoulders and carried them to the finish line, each in different ways.

Bill White had been an early season disappointment. A perennial All Star, shoulder troubles had limited his offensive production for the first half of the season. He would hit bottom on June 12 with a .225 batting average with 7 home runs and just 20 RBIs. White would continue to receive treatment for his shoulder, both traditional and some that was controversial for the time. His shoulder would heal and the big first baseman would terrorize pitchers in the National League for the rest of the season, finishing with an impressive .303 batting average with 21 home runs and 102 RBIs. He would finish 3rd in MVP voting with teammate Ken Boyer winning the award for his steady play throughout the entire season. Boyer was a rock at third base but it was White’s second half that made the difference between a .500 team and one that would win the World Series.

The other play maker was Bob Gibson. The entire National League was aware of how talented Bob Gibson was, but it was only in the last year that Gibson had become a dominating pitcher. He was a big part of a 19-1 late season run in 1963 when the Cardinals nearly caught the World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers before fading in the last week.. Like the rest of the team, Gibson had muddled around .500 for most of the 1964 season. All that changed on August 10, when the legend of Bob Gibson would be born. He would finish 10-3 in his remaining appearances and if not for an amazing pitching performance from Al Jackson on October 2, would have won 20 games for the first time in his career. He would finish the season with a 19-12 record, but none of that was as impressive as his performance in the last game of the season. With only one day of rest following a complete game loss to Jackson and the Mets, he came in relief of Curt Simmons and threw 4 more innings in the must win game. It was not vintage Gibson as he would walk 5 while only striking out 2, but he held the Mets at bay long enough for the offense to rally against their bullpen. Forget Curt Schillings bloody sock, this was the gutsiest pitching performance of the last half century.

The Offense

As spectacular as the two play makers were, it took more than just two heroes to bring home the NL pennant. It was surely a team effort, and as such let’s take a look at how Cardinals Manager, Johnny Keane’s lineup did from September 1 through the end of the season.

Player Pos Hits – AB Doubles Triples HR RBIs Average On base Slugging
Curt Flood CF 49-150 7 0 1 10 .358 .401 .431
Lou Brock LF 48-147 6 3 6 17 .364 .399 .599
Bill White 1B 38-132 12 0 4 29 .285 .317 .470
Ken Boyer 3B 33-122 5 3 7 26 .270 .371 .533
Dick Groat SS 36-122 9 0 1 17 .295 .343 .393
Tim McCarver C 25-88 6 1 2 13 .284 .312 .443
Mike Shannon RF 23-90 3 0 5 17 .256 .303 .456
Julian Javier 2B 24-113 5 0 2 6 .212 .270 .310

The first thing you notice while looking at this production is how every player contributed, up and down the lineup. The one exception was second baseman, Julian Javier, who had been nursing a pretty bad injury. It would eventually cost Javier playing time in the World Series as his role would be limited to one pinch running appearance. A young shortstop named Dal Maxvill would fill in for the injured Javier and he would play well enough to earn a spot on the roster in 1965, eventually becoming the regular shortstop in 1966.

If you look at the top of the order, you will find the real key to the Cardinals success. The two leadoff speedsters, Curt Flood and Lou Brock, always seemed to be on base when it came around to the heart of the order. In 1964, the veteran Flood was the leadoff hitter and Brock batted second. Flood was a good contact hitter with a high on-base percentage, but lacked power. Brock was a bit less disciplined at the plate but more than made up for that with some serious pop in his bat. In fact, he led the club in slugging in the final month of the season, as he would for long stretches throughout his career. Eventually Keane’s successor, Red Schoendienst would swap the two, preferring Brock’s extra base potential in front of Curt Flood’s high batting average. Red’s move was brilliant as there was not a better 1-2 tandem in baseball.

What can we learn from all of this that might help us as we watch the 2010 Cardinals finish the season ? It is really simple: the top of the order has to get on base regularly so that the 3-4-5 hitters can do damage without having to hit the ball out of the park. The 1964 Cardinals did that at a frightening pace, and it was a large part of their late season success. If the 2010 Cardinals can do that, they can stay in the race.

Pitching Wins Championships

We’ve heard the phrase many times. But does it ? In the case of the 1964 Cardinals, it certainly did. As good as the Cardinals offense was, they were only scoring half a run a game above their average when they were a .500 club. If that’s true, then what was the difference in this late pennant race ?

Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Let’s take a look at Keane’s starting rotation over the same period. As many teams did in that era, Keane had shorted his rotation to four starters: the suddenly dominating Bob Gibson, the wily veteran Curt Simmons, the young phenom Ray Sadecki, and the veteran Roger Craig. When the schedule demands required an additional arm, Keane would go to Gordie Richardson twice, and once each to Mike Cuellar and Ron Taylor. How did they do ?

Pitcher Win – Loss Team Record ERA Opposing
Batting Avg
Opposing
Slugging
Bob Gibson 7-2 7-2 1.95 .201 .277
Curt Simmons 4-0 7-0 3.91 .277 .404
Ray Sadecki 4-2 6-2 3.71 .282 .418
Roger Craig 1-3 2-4 2.84 .262 .393

First and foremost, how dominating was Gibson in that last month ? It’s one thing to know it, but when you see the actual results, it is all the more impressive. He was better than good, he was 1968 good while keeping the opposing teams to two runs over the last month. When you are scoring almost 5 runs a game, and only giving up 2, that’s a recipe for a lot of wins. If Al Jackson hadn’t pitched like Sandy Koufax and shut out the Cardinals on that infamous October 2 game, Gibson could have easily been 8-1 and the Cardinals would have won the pennant a day earlier. Not only that, Jackson’s game nearly cost the Cardinals the World Series as Gibson was not available to pitch in the first game, which meant he would go on short rest for the remainder of the series. Fortunately for Cardinals fans, Ray Sadecki pitched a gem for a Game One victory over the Yankees, and the rest is history.

How important was Curt Simmons ? It is a shame that his name does not come up in conversations about great Cardinals of the era because Simmons’ final month was just as impressive as Gibson’s. The veteran lefty was the epitome of crafty. He had a deceptive motion as he hid the ball until late in his delivery, and nothing ever came at the plate on a flat plane. He had a nasty curveball that devoured left handed batters, and no two pitches came in at the same speed. Simmons and Gibson were a genuine two -headed monster at the top of the rotation.

Ray Sadecki continued his unexplainable 20 win season, finding all sorts of ways to win. He threw consecutive shutouts in September, but was more of a bend without breaking pitcher. He would be hit, sometimes hard, but always seemed to limit the damage and keep his team in the games. For a reference, think back on Kyle Lohse’s 2008 season and you’ll have some idea of what a Sadecki game looked like. The young lefty pitched like that all season long, and fortunately for Cardinals fans, continued in the fall classic.

If Gibson, Simmons and Sadecki were the winners, poor Roger Craig was the hard luck loser. He pitched brilliantly in this final month of the season, but lack of run support doomed the veteran to the only losing record among the four starters. Don’t feel bad for Craig though. He would be one of the heroes in the World Series, but we’ll get into that on another day.

The spot starters, Richardson, Cuellar and Taylor, would combine for a 1-2 record with one no-decision. While they were primarily used to keep from killing the arms in the shortened rotation, every win was precious – including Gordie Richardson’s start on September 25. The youngster would also pick up a win in relief earlier in the month, making him one of the best summer callups of the decade.

As good as the starters were, the unsung heroes of the 1964 pennant race were in the bullpen. As the Cardinals put together a 22-10 end to the regular season, the starters combined for 17 wins and 9 of the losses. With only 8 complete games in that span, that meant that the bullpen was holding leads. Since the pen combined for a 5-1 record, it also meant that when needed, they kept games close enough for the offense to mount a late inning comeback, which they did on 6 separate occasions. Perhaps even more impressive was the fact that they only blew the lead in one game. And yes, it was poor Roger Craig that took a hard luck no-decision in that one too. Bobby Humphreys, Gordie Richardson, Mike Cuellar, Ron Taylor and the veteran knuckleballer, Barney Schultz we just sensational in the last month, when they were most needed. If you think that Ryan Franklin makes you nervous closing out a game, all that Schultz threw were knuckleballs, and some of them said “hit me”. He didn’t throw many of those in September 1964.

The Final Two Weeks

As well as the Cardinals were playing, it took some additional help for them to win the pennant. That help would come from a surprising source, Phillies Manager, Gene Mauch. While the Cardinals had the experience of an exciting, but failed pennant race in 1963, the Phillies were in serious contention for the first time since the Whiz Kids of 1950. With 12 games left in the season, the Phillies still enjoyed a 6 1/2 game lead over the hard charging Cardinals and Reds. If Johnny Keane was pushing all the right buttons, Gene Mauch chose all the wrong ones. He shorted his starting rotation to trio of Chris Short, Jim Bunning and the third guy. That meant that for the last two weeks of the season, Bunning and Short were going out there on only two days of rest. The once dominating top of the rotation were suddenly quite hittable. Their fastballs lost a little of their zip and curveballs flattened out. There results were just devastating. The Phillies would lose the first 10 of those games, including being swept by both Cincinnati and St. Louis. In those same 10 games, the Cardinals would win 9 and Cincinnati would win 7. The lead would change hands twice, with Cincinnati taking over the top spot on September 27. The Cardinals would overtake them three days later, and surprising the sports world, would hold on to the lead until the end.

Johnny Keane didn’t overmanage and tinker with either the rotation or the bullpen in the last month of the season. His successor, Red Schoendienst, used the same approach in 1967 and 1968. The results were three trips to the World Series in 5 years. For the Cardinals fans that are suggesting the 2010 team shorten their rotation in the last month of the season, learn from what happened to Gene Mauch and the Phillies when he did exactly that.

What have we learned from all of this ? The 5 game deficit now facing the Cardinals is hardly insurmountable. It does take some consistent play from both the offense as well as the pitching staff. While pitching does win championships, it also takes leadoff hitters getting on base so that there is somebody for the heart of the order to drive in. It also takes a bullpen that can not only hold a lead, but keep an apparent loss close so that a comeback can happen. The later in the season it gets, the more help that you might need from another team, and if there is one manager that can mishandle a pitching staff, it is Dusty Baker.

With the current divisional alignment, including a wildcard in postseason, it doesn’t take nearly as much of a collapse as happened in 1964. All it takes is getting there, and then anything can happen in a short series.

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Series Preview – Cards In Miami

The Cardinals finished up a 4-2 home stand Wednesday, and travel to South Florida for a 3-game set with the Marlins. The Cardinals split two with Florida in May.

Current Snapshot:

St Louis: 60-48, 2nd place NL Central, 0.5 games behind Cincinnati. Am I the only one happy to see Houston leave town? Didn’t think so. After allowing Pittsburgh 2 runs in 3 games, they surrendered 31 runs to Houston. The team added Jake Westbrook, sent Ryan Ludwick to San Diego, lost David Freese for the year, and ceded right field to Jon Jay. It’s been an exhausting week.

Florida: 53-54, 4th place NL East, 8 games behind Atlanta. The Marlins boast some of the best young players in the league with Josh Johnson, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Michael Stanton on the roster. That they sit a game under .500 is somewhat of a surprise. Florida is 5-5 over their last ten games, and followed taking two of three from San Diego in San Diego by getting swept at home by the Phillies.

Pitching Matchups

6 August: Jeff Suppan (1-4, 5.15 xFIP) vs Rickey Nolasco (12-7, 3.64 xFIP). Suppan got his first win of the season against Pittsburgh last Saturday, so he’s on a major roll right now. Jeff has started 8 career games in Florida, never losing as a Cardinal, never winning as a Brewer. His last win down there was 5 may 06. He has never faced Rickey Nolasco.

Dan Uggla (.267/.429/.600, 1 HR) and Mike Lamb (.158/.200/.211) are the only Marlins with more than 20 career PA’s against him (Hanley Ramirez has 19). I doubt Lamb will suit up against Suppan Friday.

Rickey Nolasco is a right-handed pitcher currently tied for fourth in the NL in wins and tenth in xFIP. By most advanced metrics this is his best season in the majors. Nolasco features a fastball averaging 91 MPH, which he throws about half the time. He complements that with a split-finger (85MPH, 12%), slider (85, 23%) and curveball (75, 16%). According to Fangraphs, his off-speed pitches are plus pitches.

Nolasco has appeared in two games vs St Louis in Miami (one start). He’s not beaten the Cardinals at home; in fact, he’s never beaten the Cardinals, and the Marlins have only won one of the 5 games he’s appeared in (4 starts). His lone home start was almost exactly two years ago.

No Cardinal has 20 plate appearances against Nolasco. Matt Holliday and Felipe Lopez have hit two home runs off him. Holliday, in fact, is 7 for 11 all-time against Nolasco.

7 August: Adam Wainwright (15-6, 3.22 xFIP) vs Josh Johnson (10-4, 3.10 xFIP). Two of the best young pitchers in baseball, and two contenders for the 2010 NL Cy Young award, square off on Saturday. If this is not the Fox Game of the Week something is seriously wrong. What? Boston is playing the Yankees this weekend too? So much for that.

Wainwright was masterful in his 7 innings against Pittsburgh on Sunday and looks to keep that going. He’s started one game in Florida against the Marlins, winning last June 6th. In his career he’s 4-1 against Florida, and he won on 20 May this year 4-2. Only Hanley Ramirez has 20 PA versus Adam, and Wainwright has completely handcuffed him (.167/.260/.167). Uggla has the only HR on the roster off Wainwright, but has been similarly frustrated (.125/.167/.313).

The right-handed Johnson was roughed up in San Diego on Sunday, allowing a season high 5 earned runs, but the Padres are the only team to beat him since May (5-2 over that span). Johnson throws a fastball, slider, and changeup; his fastball averages 95 MPH and he throws it 60% of the time. All three pitches are above average, which makes sense given his success this season. Johnson has started 3 career games against St Louis, one in Miami. He’s 1-1, with a no decision in the home start although the Marlins won the game (9 June 09). Cardinals on the roster have hit .321/.346/.436 career off Johnson (82 PA). Albert Pujols has hit the only HR among the current Redbirds off Johnson.

He and Wainwright have hooked up once before, on 7 Sept 08. Wainwright won the game 3-1.

8 August: Jake Westbrook (0-0, 2.01 xFIP) vs Sean West (0-1, 4.84 xFIP). Westbrook made his first start as a Cardinal Monday against Houston, and would have gotten the win if the bullpen could have held the lead. In a relative oddity of the Interleague Era, Jake has never faced Florida. Of the current Marlins only Mike Lamb (1 for 7, walk) and Donnie Murphy (1 for 2) have any at bats against him.

Westbrook has five pitches but hardly ever throws his curveball. His fastball averages 92 MPH, his slider 80, his change-up 79, and his cutter 86. Of those his best pitch appears to be his slider, which makes sense given his ground ball/fly ball ratio (1.87 in 2010). He strikes out a tick over 5 hitters a game, making him a pitch-to-contact guy that Dave Duncan loves.

Sean West was recalled to the Marlins on 3 August, and lost his first start of the 2010 season Tuesday to Philadelphia. West started 20 games a year ago for Florida, posting an 8-6 record. He has not faced the Cardinals in South Florida, but he has beaten the Cardinals in his career, 2-1 on 15 September of last year. West features a fastball/slider/changeup and is a bit of a fly ball pitcher (0.70 GB/FB ratio). His fastball averages about 91 MPH.

No Cardinal has more than 3 PA’s against him, so it’s not really worth discussing those numbers.

Prognosis. The Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, while the Marlins have been exactly average at home. Florida will be favored on Friday, St Louis on Sunday. Saturday’s game will be epic and most likely become a battle of bullpens. St Louis has the ability to take 2 of these 3 games but it won’t be easy. Cincinnati is in Chicago this weekend, so it may take 2 of 3 to keep pace with the Reds.

UPDATE: The Cardinals shifted their rotation for this weekend. Adam Wainwright pitched Friday night, Jake Westrbook will pitch Saturday and Jeff Suppan shifts to Sunday.

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Series Preview: Cards at New York Mets

On the heels of a hot streak, the Cardinals rolled into Chicago to the tune of one of baseball’s most celebrated rivalries. The trip to the Windy City did not go the way the Cardinals had hoped, as they dropped the opening two and had to salvage Sunday night in front of the ESPN national audience to avoid the sweep. Even that took extra innings.

The bi-polar Cardinals will take their show further East on the road as they slide into another city that is inhabited by an old rival. The team that has become known as “Pond Scum” around the Gateway City will play host to the Redbirds this week for a three game set.

Current Snapshot

St. Louis: 55-44, First Place, NL Central, 1 Game ahead of Cincinnati. The Cards have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and have been showing signs of life since the All Star break. At the same time, they floundered in Chicago to the extent of frustration against a team that they should perform better against if they are in fact the “team to beat” in this division.

New York: 50-49, Third Place, NL East, 7.5 Games back of division leader Atlanta. The Mets are 2-8 over their last 10 games and seem to be on the verge of losing their season. The manager is rumored to be on the hot seat and the players have not performed to the level necessary, causing the team to show up in trade rumors with our other I-70 team, the Royals.

Pitching Matchup

Tuesday, July 27, 6:10 P.M. CST: Adam Wainwright (14-5, 1.94 ERA) vs Jon Niese (6-4, 3.54 ERA)
Wainwright is doing everything in his power to ensure that he does not get left in the dark when it comes to the Cy Young award this season. He has been lights out lately, though many of his starts in the summer heat of St. Louis have been shortened to six innings or so. Wainwright has not surrendered an earned run in his last three starts and is one of the most prolific pitchers in his home ballpark. Jason Bay will look to find his stroke against a pitcher that he has posted a .353 average against in his career. Carlos Beltran, on the other hand, may look to seek revenge for being on the receiving end of one of the most famous pitches in St. Louis Cardinal history.

Niese does not have much of a history against the Redbirds, but what history he has, he would like to forget. In a short outing last season, he sustained an injury to his leg that required surgery to repair. He has been on of New York’s occasional bright spots this season, though not as sharp in his last start. Still, Niese matches up well for the Mets and should give them an opportunity to overcome the Cardinals’ ace and possibly pull out a win.

Wednesday, July 28, 6:10 P.M. CST: Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21 ERA) vs Mike Pelfrey (10-5, 4.00 ERA)
There may not be a better story than Jaime Garcia’s this season for the Cardinals. A pitcher that was overshadowed by other arms going into Spring Training, Jaime has claimed the third spot in the rotation and been dominant at times. At other times, he has been hittable, but he seems to work his way into and out of trouble with some grit.

Mike Pelfrey has been as up and down as the team he plays for this season. While his overall line does not look bad, his last few games have just about wrecked it. While his most recent start suggests that he may be back on track, he has suffered through some horrible pitching, giving up more base runners than innings pitched as of late. Matt Holliday is hitting 375 against Pelfrey in his career, but Randy Winn can only boast a .100 average despite facing him more times than any other St. Louis hitter.

Thursday, July 29, 11:10 A.M. CST: Blake Hawksworth (4-6, 5.23 ERA) vs Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79 ERA)
The Cardinals have survived through most of the season based on their pitching. Blake Hawksworth is the example of both the things that are going right for the team and the reason why the team desperately needs another arm. While the reliever-turned-starter has given the Cardinals serviceable outings and impressed fans beyond his ability this season, he has not been the dominant part of the rotation that the Cardinals need him to be. His last start did not last five innings and, thanks in large part to the bullpen, he did not leave the team in a position to win the game. He has very little experience against this Mets team and the Cardinals will hope that he can keep them in contention against one of New York’s best.

Johan Santana has not been his usual, dominant self in 2010, but you could not tell that over his last three starts. Posting an ERA under one (0.82) while striking out 14 batters over the course of 22 innings, Santana may be finding the proverbial “groove”. Santana always pitches the Cardinals tough, but the resident superstar, Albert Pujols, may be pretty happy to see him. Albert holds a .500 average and a pair of solo home runs against the Mets’ lefty. The middle infield for the Cardinals, however, may not find much solace in the assignment. Skip Schumaker, Felipe Lopez, Brendan Ryan and Aaron Miles have combined for one solitary hit against Santana in 25 at bats.

Prognosis
The Cardinals need to win this series to show that they are closer related to the team that showed up after the All Star Break than the team that went into it. With Wainwright and Garcia on the mound for the first two, they have that opportunity. The team needs to settle in and perform like it is capable of, or the Mets could find themselves sneaking a win or two out of a very tough series.

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