As evidenced by the 2011 playoffs, the Royals need a true ace to make a run in 2012.

It’s pretty clear what the Kansas City Royals’ biggest need is for 2012.

Pitching.

They have to get better in the Earned Runs department before they are a competitive ball club. The Royals ended 2011 27^th in the Majors with a 4.44 ERA, only ahead of Houston (4.51), Minnesota (4.58)and Baltimore (4.89). That’s bad.

Really bad.

After watching the MLB playoffs so far this year, it’s pretty evident that the Royals need a true ace to make any kind of a playoff run. First, let’s take a look at the ERA’s of the teams that made the playoffs this year:

Philadelphia: 3.02 (1^st)

Tampa Bay: 3.58 (8^th)

Milwaukee: 3.63 (9^th)

New York: 3.73 (11^th)

St. Louis: 3.74 (12^th)

Texas: 3.79 (13^th)

Arizona: 3.80 (14^th)

Detroit: 4.04 (18^th)

These numbers are a little surprising, to say the least. Outside of Philadelphia’s amazing (regular season) rotation, no team in the playoffs this year cracked the top seven in ERA. Of the four remaining teams (Milwaukee, St. Louis, Texas, and Detroit) only one team is in the top 10 (Milwaukee).

The formula for the pitching staffs of these four teams looks a little like this:

1) One Stud Ace (Zack Greinke for Milwaukee, Chris Carpenter for St. Louis, C.J. Wilson for Texas, and Justin Verlander for Detroit)

2) 2-3 above average-to-decent starters

3) Consistent bullpen

This winter is one of the most important offseason for the Royals in the past 5 to 10 years because they are possibly only one or two pieces away from making a run towards the postseason. The lineup is pretty much set for Opening Day 2012, but the rotation really needs a guy who can put up an ERA under 3.00.

There has been a lot of talk about acquiring James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays via trade this offseason. If the Royals could pull it off (which is very possible) it would give the starting rotation a clear number one starter and assure a better ERA throughout next season.

For example, if the starting rotation for the 2011 season had Shields instead of Jeff Francis, their ERA would have been at 4.12 instead of 4.55. That’s not to say that simply plugging Shields into the rotation next year guarantees that type of jump in stats, but it will have some type of similar effect.

Hopefully, the returning starters (Luke Hochevar, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino) and the young arms out of the bullpen continue to improve and build on their successes from 2011. Then, one of these things has to happen:

1) Bruce Chen is re-signed

2) Another decent veteran starter is signed

3) A starter from the farm system (Mike Montgomery?) makes the rotation out of Spring Training

If all of these things occur, the Royals could very well be in the top 15 in ERA in the MLB next year. They were 10^th in the majors in runs scored this year, and it’s hard to see them go anywhere but up from there.

The pieces are falling in place now, so it’s time to bring in an ace. It could be Shields or it could be someone who hasn’t entered any trade rumors yet. Either way, the Royals need to make it happen.

The MLB playoffs are in full swing. As much as I thought the last day of the regular season was epic baseball watching. Having three series deciding games in a 24 hour period has the potential to be just as special. (I say potential because this article will be loaded before the conclusion of them.) This really doesn’t relate to the Royals. There’s not much to talk about. Major news will be hard to come by between now and the end of the Post Season.

I’m not old enough to remember the Royals run to a Word Series Title in 1985. And even if I were I’m not going to re-hash what happened. This Royals fan is tired of hearing about it, and tired of the organization milking that Championship dry. The organization is developing some young marketable stars. But I’ve already discussed that. The Royals need some new post season dramatics so the younger fans have something to talk about. To help do this I used the new “Time Travel App” on my phone to text myself three years into the future to see what is going on around the Truman Sports Complex in October 2014:

I’m grilling burgers here in lot M of the Truman Sports Complex. I can barely talk from yelling so much during the Chiefs 24-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier today. I’m sure Steeler fan is a little annoyed that their former head coach Bill Cowher hung a loss on them. But they have a Super Bowl since his tenure, they’ll get over it.

Chiefs game & a Royals playoff game on the same day at TSC? That wouldn't suck

Chiefs are 5-0 for the first time since 2003. That was a fun year for Kansas City sports fans. However, this past summer has blown the doors off that summer. For one. the Royals actually increased their 7 game lead at the All-Star break and won the division in mid-September. The end of the season was pretty anti-climatic. It’s a good thing too. The ALDS against the Yankees took everything the Royals had. James Shields was brilliant in the deciding Game 5, needing only an Eric Hosmer solo home run to win the game 1-0. That game more than made up for the calm finish to the regular season.

Game 1 of the ALCS starts in a few hours over at Kauffman Stadium against the Texas Rangers. I hope my voice recovers by then. Beer should help that out, right? Because Shields pitched on Thursday our number two guy Jake Odorizzi is pitching tonight. I remember when we got him in the Greinke trade. Greinke had that World Series runner-up run with the Brewers back in 11. But since then the Brewers have been just as bad as the Royals were when Greinke was here. Anyway, Odorizzi has been excellent this season posting a 3.45 ERA and winning 19 games. The only reason he’s not a Cy Young candidate is James Shields has been better going 21-6 with a 2.91 ERA. But even Shields will have to wait and see if the Rays ace Matt Moore beats him out.

I remember when the Royals traded for James Shields. Trading Mike Moustakas and some of the hitters in the minors to the Rays was a risky move, but it’s paid off for both teams. Up until that trade Dayton Moore didn’t have a great track record in trading at the major league level. At the time I really didn’t like the odds of Moore winning a trade with Andrew Freidman. That was the “succeed, or be fired trade” for Dayton Moore. Since then he hasn’t missed.

Anyway, I better put this thing down and get these burgers off the grill. Can’t be burning food especially between an NFL game the ALCS in the same sports complex. I’ve heard about this happening in other cities. But this is the first time I can remember it happening here. I should probably change jerseys too. See you in three years. It’s worth the wait. Hopefully I’ll be back here in January for an AFC Title Game

Hey, It could happen.

Each fall, while most fans are busy following the MLB Playoffs along with college football and basketball, one of the most underrated sporting events takes place. Starting on Tuesday, October 12^th, the Arizona Fall League will kick off their 19^th season.

For those not familiar with the Arizona Fall League (AFL), it is a league designed to improve, refine, and develop young Minor League players. The 210 players that participate are many of the top prospects in baseball, and they will get their chance to perform in front of hundreds of scouts, coaches, and executives.

Each Major League club is required to send seven Minor Leaguers to fill six 35-man teams. Most of the players are from the Triple-A and Double-A levels, but all teams are allowed to send two players from below Double-A.

It is a league built to showcase the top young talent from around the world. This year, 30 former first-round picks are included in the rosters and two of 2010′s top five picks will play. Current MLB stars such as David Wright, Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Braun all spent time in the AFL and went on to have extremely successful careers in the bigs.

Last fall, players like Ike Davis, Jason Heyward, Chris Heisey, Mike Leake, Buster Posey, Mike Stanton, Drew Storen, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Tabata took part in the one-month-long season. Now, only a year later, those are household names.

This year, the St. Louis Cardinals representatives will make up part of the Surprise Rafters along with Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, and Detroit Tigers prospects. Let’s take a look at what exactly each of the seven Cardinals will bring to the table for the Rafters.

Brian Broderick, Starting Pitcher
Brian was one of the best pitchers in the system in 2010, and will look to keep that going in the next several weeks. He is a very efficient pitcher that has great control, but lacks over-powering stuff. What I want to see Broderick do is work on his secondary pitches. 90% of Minor League pitchers have a decent fastball, but Broderick will have to use his off-speed pitches next year and beyond. His fastball will not fool hitters at a higher level. Having great control is irreplaceable, but for Broderick to make it as a big leaguer, he must improve his repertoire.
2010 stats: 14-7, 3.66 ERA, 92 SO, 150 innings in A+/AA

Blake King, Relief Pitcher
Blake King is literally the opposite of Broderick in every way imaginable. King spent the entire 2010 season in Double-A Springfield where he led the team in strikeouts per nine innings with a mark of 11.1. And while Broderick is all about control, King doesn’t even bother with it. Not only did Blake lead the team in strikeouts, he also led the team in walks per nine innings with 6.4. The 23-year-old fire baller absolutely must work on his control, because it appears non-existent. I advise King to ask Francisco Samuel; just throwing the ball hard will not get you where you want to go.
2010 stats: 4-3, 2.91 ERA, 84 SO, 68 IP in AA

Jordan Swagerty, Pitcher
I said it a couple months ago, and I will say it again. I honestly think Swagerty will have a better career than former ASU teammate and Cardinals first-round draft pick Seth Blair. I took a lot of heat for it, but I am very high on Swagerty. He resembles Jess Todd, but could develop into a starter. He has three great pitches and exceptional command of the strike zone. His best pitch is his 12-6 curve ball that is a true 70-75 on the 20-80 scouting scale. I project the organization to try him out as a starter, but due to his size and pitching style, I believe his future lies in the bullpen. Look for him to move up the ranks very quickly.
2010 stats: 14 saves, 2.19 ERA, 48 SO, 37 IP in NCAA

Tony Cruz, Catcher
Here is one of the legit underrated catching prospects in the Cardinals system. The 23-year-old spent most of his 2010 in Palm Beach and Springfield, but did play a few games in AAA as well. He comes across as a very raw hitter to me. He has plenty of potential there, but it needs refined. Fortunately for him, that is what the AFL is all about. The big thing he needs to work on is plate discipline. He’s known to swing at a lot of bad pitches, but still managed to hit above.280 in A and AA with a .352 OBP. That’s very promising. If he can tweek a very things at the plate, I believe Cruz can be a great hitter.
2010 stats: .282 BA, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 344 AB in A+/AA/AAA

Zack Cox, Third Base
Here’s what Cardinal Nation is most interested about. How will the first-round draft pick fair against top-talent pitchers? We saw him perform very well down in the Gulf Coast League, but this is an entirely different situation for him. Instead of going up against rookie pitchers, he’ll be hitting off of some of the best Minor League pitchers in the game. Cox was the best hitter in the 2010 draft not named Bryce Harper, but still has some things to work on. Defensively, there are some concerns. If the Cardinals plan on keeping him at third base, Zack needs to work on his arm strength and overall fielding ability. Other than that, power is a big thing to keep an eye on. All of the scouts say that he has 20+ home run potential, but Cox barely managed that in his two-year collegiate career.
2010 stats: .429 BA, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 238 AB in NCAA

Pete Kozma, Shortstop
While Cox will have most Cardinal fans on him, I’ll be watching this guy. I’ve had a man-crush on Kozma ever since he was drafted, and even though some have given up on him, I still believe he’s one of the top prospects in the organization. If he can adjust his hitting approach, and eliminate some of those strikeouts, Kozma may become St. Louis’ starting shortstop sometime in the future. I think there is a ton of potential in him, and the AFL seems like a perfect place for him to show that. Don’t give up on the former first-rounder just yet, because I think he has something very rare.
2010 stats: .243 BA, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 503 AB in AA

Adron Chambers, Outfield
Here’s one of the fastest players in the Minor Leagues, and easily the fastest in the Cardinals system. For some reason, neither Springfield or Memphis decided to take advantage of that as much as Palm Beach did in 2009, but Chambers has 40+ steal potential. He has been compared by many to Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings, and if you keep up with prospects outside of the Cardinals organization, you realize that’s a comparison that says a lot about Chambers. What I noticed from Adron in 2010 is his newly found ability to hit the home run. In his MiLB career, he never hit more than three home runs in a season. However, this year he managed six home runs in Springfield and Memphis.
2010 stats: .283 BA, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 321 AB in AA/AAA

Justin Hulsey covers the Cardinals for i70baseball and his blog, Rising Redbirds, that is also dedicated to Cardinals baseball and their minor league system. You may follow him on Twitter @JayHulsey by clicking here.