In part 4 of this multi-part series, we take a look at the trades of the Dayton Moore administration that were made in 2009 for the Kansas City Royals.

Click the years to see the previous articles:

2006
2007
2008 

As we move on to 2009 and beyond, it is important to note that the data begins to become a little less reliable.  The reason being that there are fewer years on which to judge a player.  If the Royals traded an established major leaguer for a good prospect that has yet to break into the major leagues, based on the formula we use, the Royals may not get any credit for the trade.  But overall, it should even out both ways, especially when we combine the WAR scores for all of the years at the end.

As was illustrated in last week’s column, 2008 was a bad year for Dayton in terms of trades.  Injuries were to blame for part of this, as was plain bad luck.  Even so, by 21st century Royals standards, 2008 was not that bad of a season.  For one, they didn’t finish in last place.  Finishing 75-87, it was the Royals best season since the fluky “smoke and mirrors” 2003 season.  With Zack Greinke ready to take the leap into superstardom and an elite closer in Soria, there was some positive momentum going into 2009.  On top of this, right after the 2008 season, the Royals dealt for speedy centerfielder, Coco Crisp, and slugging 1B Mike Jacobs.  There was definitely an attitude amongst Royals people that they would have an opportunity to compete for the division in 2009.  So let’s see how Dayton fared in his trades in that year…

April 1, 2009: The Kansas City Royals traded Ross Gload and cash to the Florida Marlins for a player to be named later. The Florida Marlins sent Eric Basurto (minors) (May 13, 2009) to the Kansas City Royals to complete the trade.

A journeyman bench player, Gload spent 2 pretty meaningless years with the Royals, so seeing him get dealt was neither a blow nor a surprise.  One might have thought the Royals could have gotten more than a 40th round pick in Eric Basurto, but apparently not.  Basurto, to his credit, is still playing baseball in the Royals organization and spent last season in Double A Northwest Arkansas.  He likely has little to no upside, so this trade was pretty meaningless.

Gload: 1.3 WAR with Marlins (2009)

Basurto: 0.0 WAR (has yet to appear for Royals)

Marlins win trade by 1.3 WAR

July 10, 2009: The Kansas City Royals traded Derrick Saito (minors) and Dan Cortes to the Seattle Mariners for Yuniesky Betancourt.

The critics came out of the woodwork for this one.  At the time, the Royals needed a shortstop in a bad way.  After Mike Aviles was injured early in the season, they were left with a combination of Willie Bloomquist and Tony Pena Jr.   Many would make the argument that by making this trade the Royals worsened their shortstop situation.  And the numbers would support that.  Not only was Betancourt carrying a relatively hefty contract, but he absolutely positively sucked.  In 2009, he was far worse than replacement level. Rumor has it Seattle fans were laughing when the Royals traded for Betancourt.  In his defense though, he was much better in 2010 than in 2009, even leading the team in home runs that year.

Saito: 0.0 WAR (never appeared for Mariners and appears to be out of baseball)

Cortes: -0.1 WAR with Mariners (2010-2011)

Betancourt: 0.0 WAR with Royals (1/2 of 2009 and 2010)

Royals win trade by 0.1 WAR

September 3, 2009: The Texas Rangers traded Tim Smith (minors) and Manny Pina to the Kansas City Royals for Danny Gutierrez (minors).

This is one of those trades that cannot be fairly judged using the WAR statistic.  The Rangers have absolutely nothing to show for this trade, while the Royals have likely their backup catcher of the future in Pina, along with Smith who is still in the organization.  But the advantage is only 0.1 WAR so the impact is minimal for the purpose of this study.  Despite what the #’s below say, this trade was a big win for Dayton and company.

Gutierrez: 0.0 WAR (never appeared for Rangers and appears to be out of baseball)

Smith: 0.0 WAR (has yet to appear for Royals-played last season in Double A Northwest Arkansas)

Pina: -0.1 WAR with Royals (2011)

Rangers win trade by 0.1 WAR

November 6, 2009: The Chicago White Sox traded Josh Fields and Chris Getz to the Kansas City Royals for Mark Teahen.

This one is interesting.  When it was first made, it looked kind of good.  Teahen’s production had begun to tail off signifcantly in Kansas City.  Many believed that it was because he had gotten himself so mentally screwed up by the constant changing of positions.  This may have been true.  So the White Sox acquired him and signed him to a multi-year deal to make him their everyday 3rd baseman.  The Royals were picking up their new everyday 2nd baseman in the speedy Chris Getz, and Josh Fields, a 3b/OF who had hit 23 HR as a rookie in 100 games in 2007.  Fields quickly did nothing in KC, and Getz proved himself to be nothing more than a steady defensive 2B with some speed and no power.  And when I say no power, I mean NO power.  In 2 years with the Royals, Getz has a total of 18 extra base hits.  His 3 home runs in 2009 with the White Sox is starting to look VERY suspicious.  Teahen  picked up right where he left off with the Royals, and eventually continued to regress.  He was eventually sent off to Toronto in the middle of last year, and is currently without a team.  So this trade, which at the time was a very important one for the Royals, turned out to be pretty meaningless for both teams involved.

Teahen: -1.2 WAR with White Sox (2010 and 1/2 of 2011)

Fields: -0.1 WAR with Royals (2010)

Getz: 0.6 WAR with Royals (2010-2011)

Royals win trade by 0.7 WAR

Based on the study, the Royals lost by 0.6 WAR on 2009 trades.  The good news though, is they gave up very little.  Perhaps Dayton was scared off by what happened in 2008, or perhaps he learned from it.  One might argue that they missed an opportunity to get more for Teahen, but at least they weren’t burned by it.  They added Pina, who while maybe not a huge part of the future, is a part of the future nonetheless.  Getz is still with the ballclub, though his role for this coming season is in question.  Next week, we take a look at Dayton’s 2010 trades.

By the time you read this, the 2010-2011 Kansas City Royals will have played their last game of the season on their home turf. It’s six-thirty pm as I start writing this, so I can’t declare a winner lest I want to have a “Dewey Wins!” situation on my hands, but based on Tuesday night’s game play, my outlook is optimistic in terms of a home team victory. On Wednesday afternoon, team manager Ned Yost (not to confused with the ever-interesting @fakenedyost on Twitter) said, ““We wanted to improve our defense beginning of the year and we feel like we’ve done that to a great degree. We wanted to get these young guys up here, we wanted to give them experience and we’ve done that.” In other words, to quote a well-known slogan, you’ve come a long way, baby.

Brothers don't shake hands, brothers gotta hug.

In Yost’s first full year coaching for the Royals, we saw a lot of rookies playing. A lot. The bullpen, with Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Nathan Adcock, and Everett Teaford has performed well above any reasonable expectations. And after Eric Hosmer was brought up on 6 May (a day now known to many as Hosmas), Dayton Moore seemed to decide to make it his mission to win the title of youngest team in the Major League Baseball, which has been a tremendous amount of fun, though, granted, it stings a bit that only two regular players are older than I am. Give me a six-pack of an underseasoned Salvador Perez and Johnny Giavotella when my previous alternative was a leftover and microwaved Mike Jacobs. In particular, the callup of Perez, who had been in AA just weeks before, signaled the Royals’ present commitment to their farm system. The fact that he has hit almost .340 since gives me warm feelings in special places.

Permit me to completely delude myself, but until pitchers and catchers report and we’re forced to construct hypothetical starting rotations, I am utterly sold on what is happening with this team. For the first time since I was wearing days of the week underpants, this team will return almost its entire starting lineup from the last game of this year to the first game next year. Perhaps Lorenzo Cain substitutes for Melky Caberera in center field, but almost everyone else will be back. And that’s something I’m actually happy about.

What is sad is that my family is sitting here watching the last home game. This sucks. We’ve watched the Royals on TV or in person for months and months because that’s what we like to do for fun. We holler at Chris Getz, debate whether Hosmer will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this offseason or next, and root unabashedly for the ball-throwing Lilliputian Tim Collins. Even my misdirected Cardinals-loving stepson has thrown himself into the fortunes of the Royals.

Which is good, because not only does he recognize a burgeoning success story, but also because it means he gets to continue to live here.

“Same old Royals.” “Another pointless September.” “Time to trade off our stars.” Those are the statements that you’ll hear from casual Royals fans every fall. Pessimism is normally at an all-time high, everyone is more focused on football, and nobody cares about making it out to Kauffman for a “meaningless” baseball game.

Things have been different this time around.

The hope and optimism surrounding “The K” during the current homestand hasn’t been higher since 2003 (the Royals last winning season). Fans are finally believing that the Royals are close to being a legitimate contender.

Right now, the Royals are 20 games under .500, 22.5 games back in the division, and way past being eliminated from playoff contention. It’s hard to see any fanbase in professional sports rallying behind a team with those numbers, but Royals fans did it during the past week. Kauffman Stadium attendance from last week (September 13^th-18^th) averaged out to 24,621 people per game. Last season during the same time period, attendance was at 16,952 people per game. The 2010 Royals had about the same record as the 2011 Royals (2010: 61-91, 2011:67-87) and both teams were eliminated from the playoffs right around the start of September.

The difference this year is that the players are still having a ton of fun on the diamond, which makes going to games much more exciting. The players on the Royals’ current roster genuinely love playing the game. Not only do they love playing the game, but they love winning, and they love winning together. They are a group of kids who really like each other and want to bring a winning team to Kansas City.

Does anyone think that Jose Guillen really liked playing for the Royals? How about Mike Jacobs? Ross Gload?

Doubtful.

And has any Royals team since 2003 been this excited about winning games in September?

Doubtful.

Has any Royals team had as much camaraderie and chemistry as this team besides in the ‘70’s or ‘80’s?

Highly doubtful.

Everyone on the roster is excited to be playing for this team in Kansas City. There’s no doubt that they are disappointed about how this season went, but you can sense that they are all anxious for 2012 to be here. The excitement on the field has brought excitement to the seats inside Kauffman Stadium. Expect the excitement to multiply in 2012.

Life is weird.

I started writing about the Royals on a whim. I was a new at-home dad, and while the boy kept me busy, I also had some time on my hands when he slept. I filled a lot of that time watching and reading about the Royals. I joined Twitter with the idea that I would just follow Royals fans without posting myself. 1,300 tweets and a bunch of blog posts later, I found myself with press credentials, interviewing Ned Yost, Jeff Montgomery, Eric Hosmer, Ryan Lefebvre and Dayton Moore last night.

I broke my intentions of not tweeting pretty quickly, and started things off with an oh-so witty complaint about Mike Jacobs:

Your Royals DH for the evening: .268 OBP, 87 K, 8 BB. He's been designated to do some hitting tonight.

July 31, 2009 7:15 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@KC_Baseball

Aaron Stilley

For an often cooped-up Royals die-hard, the internet became an important way for me to be able to connect with other fans. Again on a whim, I set up a blog to serve as a virtual dumping ground for baseball research and thoughts I wanted to get off my chest. Then came an offer to write here on I70Baseball.com, and things got more formal with a weekly deadline. The whims have turned into what I guess you would call a serious hobby.

While I have enjoyed the ride, I have never taken myself too seriously as a Royals blogger, which added to the surprise when I got the call that I would be participating in the first “Blog Your Way To The K” event. Lead by media mavens Mike Swanson, David Holtzman and Erin Sleddens, the Royals are taking progressive steps to allow social media users some serious access to Royals figures. It started with the Digital Digest last winter, where bloggers got the chance to interview Moore, Yost, Billy Butler and Jeff Francoeur. Last night’s event was the first of its kind at a game, but we were told they will host one or two more this season, and could very well be moving towards a full-time social media section in the vein of the Indians Social Suite.

"Swanee" tells us what's up with the what's up

Our evening started with comments from Mike Swanson, VP of Communications and Broadcasting and 33-year veteran of MLB media relations. Swanson calls himself a “dinosaur,” but we should all be so willing to embrace change after becoming seasoned veterans. After thanking the higher powers that the previous night’s 19-1 loss was not blogger night, he told us, “Blogs are every bit the promotional entities the Kansas City Star or Sports Illustrated are. We read your stuff. That’s how you got here.” Swanson told us they do not mind criticism—they just prefer that it be informed criticism.

Swanson took us down to the Royals dugout where Ned Yost was finishing up his pre-game scrum with the mainstream press. Yost graciously agreed to have a quick bull session with the bloggers afterwards. He told us that dealing with the media is not his favorite thing to do, and having to rehash the previous day’s game is a particular challenge for him since he would prefer to look ahead. I asked him what the ideal usage for the two bullpen lefties would be now that Everett Teaford has joined Tim Collins. Yost responded with specifics: he recognizes Collins is not a lefty specialist, calling him “more of a blend” since he has success against righties. He said he will not limit Teaford to being a lefty specialist, but Yost likes his sweeping breaking balls against left-handed hitters, and will probably call on him when lefties are “stacked” together, while Collins will be the man when there are alternating lefties/righties coming up for the opposition.

Jeff Montgomery was up next, greeting us with a cheerful, “Hi bloggers!” Monty looks forward to seeing Joakim Soria break his Royals saves record, and feels he will “definitely” do it if he can stay healthy. He pointed out Soria has a nice head start—Monty was not the Royals closer until he was 27, whereas Soria has racked up 138 saves and is turning 27 today. (Soria still has a long way to go to catch Monty’s 304.) Montgomery told the pre-game audience on Fox Sports that he learned the bloggers do not all live in their parents’ basement.

Hos's favorite word is "unbelievable"

From there we got to enjoy Royals batting practice from the field, and some guy named Eric Hosmer agreed to talk to us. He is loving life right now, and was excited about his recent Omaha teammates Teaford and Danny Duffy joining him in Kansas City. He has been giving his mom a hard time about getting more TV time than him after her endearing, weak-kneed, “Oh my God!” reaction to his first MLB home run. Ironically, it has taken Swanson’s encouragement and tutelage to get the 21 year-old tweeting.

Bruce Chen is on the disabled list, but he was in uniform shagging balls during BP, and came to chat with the bloggers. He said he feels ready to pitch again, but the training staff is holding him back as a precaution. Swanson and Holtzman said they have been working on getting Chen on Twitter; Chen explained he is not entirely comfortable expressing himself in writing. He can “talk his way out of things,” but is worried about getting himself into trouble on Twitter. The more we talked about it though, the more intrigued he seemed. He proposed his account could be a “ladies tweet,” like ladies nights at clubs. “Ladies with pictures” he clarified. He asked Holtzman if “that’s what she said” jokes would be permissible on Twitter. (Holtzman said yes.) Wrapping things up, Swanson told Chen, “Go shag balls, Panamasian.” As Chen jogged away, he called, “That’s what she said!”

We headed back to the Joe Burke Suite just off the main press box, where Fox play-by-play man Ryan Lefebvre met with us. He said he does not get a chance to read much Royals talk on blogs or Twitter due to the time constraints of his usual game prep along with being a husband and father. Our next visitor was the man, the myth, the legend: General Manager Dayton Moore. When asked about the financial implications of bringing up Hosmer and Duffy early in the season, Moore replied that those concerns are secondary to winning. He also allowed that the moves build a trusting relationship with the players that could pay off with them wanting to remain Royals. Draft preparation is taking up a lot of his time right now, and he said the Royals have a list of “10 to 12” guys they are looking at taking with the fifth overall pick. I asked his take on the potential for the draft going to a strict “slotted” signing bonus system for draft picks; he said he cannot say too much about his opinion on it, but that he is on the committee taking a look at it, so his thoughts are being heard within MLB. He did say he likes the flexibility of the current system. Another interesting tidbit is that plans call for Duffy to throw a total of 160—180 innings this year (he threw 36 in Omaha before his promotion).

My perch for the game

All of that was enough to make for quite a day—but apparently there was still a baseball game to be played, which felt almost like an afterthought to the incredible pregame activities. There were not a lot of highlights for the home team as they dropped their fourth straight. We did get to see Hosmer’s first career triple and a slick double play started by a diving Mike Aviles. The best moment was Teaford’s debut—debuts are always a treat, and Teaford’s first inning was especially nice with a quick three-up, three-down. The Royals made some groan-inducing outs on the base-paths; the team’s aggression in that area even when down by five runs was a little puzzling. We got another visitor in the booth when Joel Goldberg stopped by and did a portion of the Fox Sports broadcast from our suite.

Joel outed @fakenedyost on the broadcast

After the game it was down to Yost’s press conference. He was not in a great mood after the loss. He explained the aggressiveness on the base paths by saying you cannot sit back and wait for home runs in huge Kauffman Stadium. The money quote was, “Winners battle through adversity. Losers freaking lay down and quit.” After the mainstream press got their questions in, Swanson opened it up to the bloggers huddled in the back. We did not seem to have many questions left after our long, whirlwind day. Mike Engel of Kings of Kauffman redeemed us by asking if Yost was noticing anything different about the swing of slumping Alex Gordon. Yost does feel Alex is “pressing a little bit,” which might be leading to him “getting a little long” with his swing.

Yost proposes that the Royals not "freaking lay down and quit"

I felt a bit torn throughout the whole experience—was I a fan or was I media? Was it OK to cheer during the game? I did not cheer much, but that was partly due to the thick window in front of me—no one would have heard it anyway. I had entered a weird gray area somewhere in between. The team’s media people are trying to figure out this strange new landscape right along with us. Regardless of where writing about baseball in Kansas City takes me, I expect I will always be a fan first. But I cannot deny I could get used to player and staff access and official press game notes, a media guide and a score-sheet with the line-ups already filled in waiting for me when I show up to a game. It is a night I will never forget, and I cannot thank the Royals enough for having us and being such great hosts. In the end, I regard the whole thing as the ultimate reward for my passion for Kansas City baseball. Go Royals.

The first week of the baseball season is over. Fan bases across the country are analyzing their teams’ starts; comparing them to last year’s team, other teams in their division, and wondering if it means anything. Royals fans are no different. Because the season is so young every game gets dissected a little more than it should.

On Opening Day we were greeted with exactly the same team we left in 2010. Bad starting pitching and defense, plus runners left in scoring position equals Royals fans screaming about 110 losses and another lost season. 72 hours later things were looking up as the Royals had won their next three in their last at bat. I heard more zealous Royals fans utter the phrase….”magic number”. Maybe that was in jest, but in order to jest there must be some amount of hope or truth.

Like all things in life, not just in baseball. The answer is somewhere in between. If you look back at Royals starts since 2002 you will find their start after 6 games doesn’t mean much. In 2004 the Royals started 4-2 at home before losing all but one game on an eight game road trip. That team finished with, at that time, the worst record in franchise history, 58-104. The worst record was in 2005, 56-106. In 2000 the Royals started with a similar home stand that included three walk-off wins. They then left on a nine game, three-city road trip, and lost every game. In 2009 the Royals got off to a spectacular start. On May 7th they had a record of 18-11 and had a 3 game lead in the division. Eventually the league adjusted to Mike Jacobs and he never adjusted back. Coco Crisp got injured. By Memorial Day the Royals were 23-27 and back in 4th place. They finished 65-97.

I think the Royals will be better than the national and local media has been giving them credit. Alcides Escobar’s defense is something we haven’t seen in a while. Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, and Jeremy Jeffress has been so impressive out of the bullpen I almost welcome the starters getting the hook. Jeff Francis has looked good through two starts despite not having a win. Chris Getz, and Alex Gordon seem to have improved, and Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Francoeur are hitting like they did earlier in their careers. And the most shocking…As of this writing the Royals lead the American League in walks!…by 7!

There are some concerns. Any starter not named Francis has been terrible. I’m beginning to wonder if Luke Hochaver will ever turn into the pitcher who thought he was good enough he held out before he signed a huge signing bonus. If the starters remain this bad, you cannot expect the bullpen to keep up their dominance. What happened during the final White Sox game is a good example. With 162 games, the major league level is a game of adjustments. Will the league adjust to the Royals new found offense? Will the league adjust to the bullpen once scouting reports begin circulating? All these questions, and they haven’t even played a road game.

Am I being a buzzkill? You could call me that. Royals fans have endured so much losing that even the slightest glimmer of hope has us acting like a bunch of 8-year-old fanboys ready to give the team a parade. The last week has been exciting. Last Saturday while attending the Angels and Futures Game I screamed my head off till my vocal cords hurt. I’ve done my share of coming off the couch when watching at home. However, one week does not make a season.

The Zack Greinke trade is paying dividends in Alcides Escobar

I’m pretty sure the Royals will not contend this year, but there are reasons to pay attention. If you don’t want to watch a shortstop throw a runner out at first from shallow left you need to find another sport to watch. Watching Tim Collins pitch is a wonder of mechanics and physics. Coming into the season most rational fans were looking for pieces from an improved farm system. The early indications are positive. Watching a good baseball team is always entertaining. The Royals are entertaining, but do not confuse entertaining with good.

At a position that could probably be best described as a logjam over the past several years, the Royals now have young, homegrown options for the future.

After attempting to plug the hole at first base with castoff sluggers in 2009, the Royals finally handed the role to two products of their farm system with the hope they could develop into solid contributors at the position.

The Mike Jacobs era lasted one inglorious season, producing just 19 homers and 61 RBI with a .228 average in 2009. The team saw enough potential in Billy Butler to allow him to play a handful of games at first toward the end of the year before they released Jacobs over the winter.

The Royals also let costly acquisition Ryan Shealy go over the winter. They are now fully committed to players they have drafted and developed – Butler and three promising minor leaguers.

Kila Ka’aihue spent most of the season at AAA Omaha, hitting .319 with a .463 on-base percentage and 76 RBI while crushing 24 homers in just 94 games.

Prized prospect Eric Hosmer torched pitching at High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas. The third pick in the 2008 draft combined for 20 HR and 86 RBI, zooming to the top of the rankings of minor league prospects. Rangy and athletic, Hosmer may already be the best fielding first baseman in the organization.

And the player who had perhaps the best season of all in 2010 may have received the least attention. Clint Robinson won the Texas League Triple Crown while having to share time down the stretch with Hosmer.

Two of these four will most likely play every day for the Royals in 2011. The late-season trade of Jose Guillen opened up the designated hitter spot in the Royals lineup, allowing both Ka’aihue and Butler to play every day. One of these four first base prospects will most likely fill the DH role for the near future.

Three questions will need answers as the Royals evaluate their prospects at first base/DH.

1) Can Ka’aihue hit consistently enough at the big-league level? 2) Will Hosmer get moved ahead of Robinson in the minor-league pecking order? 3) Is a move to an outfield position in the future for one of these players?

Robinson may end up the odd man out in the situation. He will turn 26 this winter and despite putting up good numbers, has risen slowly. The Royals don’t appear willing to put any roadblock in Hosmer’s path, meaning he may get the nod as the every day first baseman at AAA Omaha. Robinson could play DH at Omaha, or he could attempt a move to the outfield.

Ka’aihue, who will turn 27 before next season, has struggled with big league pitching but showed some promise down the stretch in 2010. In 52 games, he recorded 8 homers and 25 RBIs, but just a .217 average. Ka’aihue could have spent more time on the Royals bench, but manager Ned Yost said in the spring he preferred that Ka’aihue play every day at Omaha, calling him “a huge part of our future.”

Butler will definitely take one of the spots in the lineup, be it first base or DH. The Royals have been happy with his progress with the glove, but occasional mental lapses demonstrate his lack of familiarity with the position.

At the plate, Butler boasted a .318 average, good for 6^th in the American League. But for a slow-running average fielder, more pop than 15 homers would be preferred. His strikeout to walk ratio improved, but he still hits into too many double plays – he led the league with 32. But all things considered, at just 24 and with four major league seasons under his belt, Butler is the closest thing the Royals have to a star hitter. He’s never hit below .275 and already has 590 career hits.

If Butler is a budding star, the Royals hope Hosmer is a super-star in the making. Baseball America tabbed him as it’s all-star first baseman for all levels of the minor leagues. Hosmer proved skeptics who doubted him after a luke-warm 2009 debut wrong. He recovered from a hand injury and opted for LASIK eye surgery during the off-season, then unleashed a power outbreak that culminated with 6 homers and 12 RBIs in 9 playoff games for Northwest Arkansas. His off-season plans include winter action with Team USA and in the Arizona Fall League.

Most likely 2011 will see first base and DH split almost exclusively between Butler and Ka’aihue. This will be Ka’aihue’s one chance to prove he belongs at the big league level before Hosmer and Robinson advance. Trades or a position change will be part of the discussion before 2012 as there won’t be room for all four in the system and as Ka’aihue and Robinson enter their late 20s.

Too many quality players at one position is a good problem for the Royals. And it’s a far cry for the logjam of Jacobs, Shealy and others imported to plug the hole. Looking to become challengers in the American League in coming years, Butler and Hosmer in particular give fans hope.