Tag Archive | "Matt Carpenter"

Cardinals Player-By-Player Grades At The Half

The Cardinals are now well past the technical halfway point of the season, but the ceremonial one that is the All-Star Break is still ahead. With that coming, it is a fair time to assess where the individual parts of the team stand thus far, via the time tested and approved method: the good old grade card.

It has been a frustrating season for lofty expectations, but a deceivingly successful one other ways. The team is far from out of the divisional race and in the heart of the wild card race. It is a team that has not been prone to long runs of success (season high win streak: 5 games), but it does not stay down for long either (a three game losing streak is its worst). The ebb and flow of the year is what has been confusing for fans, team and management alike. Answers are not easy to come by it seems why they have not been better, more often.

 Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

However a look at the lineup explains that in easy detail. Coming out of Monday night’s walk off victory, the team is still a perplexing mix. They have scored the third fewest runs in the NL and have hit the least home runs by a difference of eight. Simply put, it is an offense that simply has not gotten the job done to the level it is capable of. And while the picture is constantly shifting, it is a team that simply has to play better as it is, because it is all in on its reasonably ready assets on the big league roster right now.

There are several crucial players that the club is vested in that simply have to snap out of it for this team, that is still very much in midst of the NL hunt this year, to move to the front of the pack.

Here is how the everyday options are scoring out halfway through. We will take a look at the pitching staff tomorrow.

Grade A: Yadier Molina, Matt Adams

It has not been Molina’s greatest half of his career, but all things considered that is a pretty high standard to meet regardless. Yet he still approaches the All-Star Break within earshot of a .300 average, leads the Majors in caught stealing percentage at 50% of would be base thieves and has once again guided the pitching staff through more than a few valleys this year. In addition to gutting through what seems to be some health issues or perhaps just the side effects of innings beginning to catch up to him, he has maintained an above average presence and has been rewarded with his sixth All-Star nod as a result.

Adams has more than adjusted well to the full-time role at first base. Despite not putting up the raw power only numbers that would have been guessed for him headed into the year, he was become a much more effective all-around hitter than could be expected as well. He is leading all NL first basemen in batting average (.331) and top three in doubles (21) and slugging percentage (.536).

Grade B: Matt Carpenter, Jon Jay, Jhonny Peralta, Tony Cruz

The perception of it is mostly held back by the simply off the charts season he posted a year ago, but regardless Carpenter is having an impressive campaign. He has been a mainstay at the top of the lineup, posted an impressive .379 on-base percentage across an NL-high 398 plate appearances. He has continued to swing what could be considered a ‘clutch’ bat as well, carrying a .328 average with runners in scoring position. Most importantly, he has provided a major defensive upgrade at third base, which has bettered the team’s complete defensive potential as well. He’s the grit of the club on a daily basis.

Jay has continued to refuse to be written off and has been a much needed steading presence in a centerfield picture that was hazy at best through the first two months of the season. Despite any opinion that looks to take away from his value to the team, it has been his versatility and resilience that has truly helped eliminate what could have been a huge and lingering issue up the middle.

The easy way to score out Peralta is to point out what he has not done well, which would be mainly reach base consistently. However, when taking a step back and remembering what he was brought here to do—namely upgrade the non-existent everyday production from the shortstop spot a year ago and be a solid option towards the bottom half of the order—he has exceeded splendidly. He leads the club in home runs and doubles, and has played better than anticipated in the field as well.

Cruz has the tough job of being the rarely used fill in that has to step in for the club’s most valuable (and regularly active) property. His appearances, as usual, have mostly come after long inactive stints, but he has made the most of those opportunities so far. Cruz has posted a (…..) as a starter. Add in the work he did in steadying out Lance Lynn early in the year and he has been very dependable—when needed.

Grade C: Matt Holliday, Kolten Wong

He is annually a slow starter, but at some point Holliday always has ‘that month’ where he does nothing but tear the cover off of the ball and then settles into his usual level of above average production. He is yet to embark on that run this year, and actually, his average has been in a steep decline all year: .294 in April, .266 in May then a season low .244 in June. Holliday’s greatest asset in his time in St. Louis has been a steadily productive presence to be a catalyst for the rest of the team to build off of. Yet in a lineup in desperate need of that axis, his downswing has been particularly crippling. He is on pace for just nine home runs and 74 RBI coming into Monday night.

Wong’s season has been one that has come in flashes of both brilliance and frustration. There was the slow start that saw him demoted briefly, but then followed by being NL Rookie of the Month in May. Then there was the shoulder injury that cost him half of June after a rapid decline in production has he tried to play through it. However, the talent is clear and he simply having the type of rollercoaster campaign that rookies (albeit a slightly unlucky one) go through.

Grade D: Allen Craig, Mark Ellis

Craig’s season has been one that has been a near complete loss. Gone is full field, line drive power that saw him be the team’s run producing engine a year ago. Replacing it has been a hitter that has struggled with timing and balance at the plate, and has seen his average drop over 60 points. He has not been aided by the bullheaded positioning that has kept him in the midst of a lineup where he would be best placed much lower, for the greater good of himself and the club. There have been runs where he has resembled his former self, but right now, he is quickly becoming the third option in the three way Adams-Tavares-Craig disco for positional playing time.

Ellis has been as solid as advertised on defense, but has not offered anything offensive. And it is not that he was being counted on to do much in that regard as is, but he was expected to at the very least provide an equal alternative to Wong as a starter. It is at the point now where is more of a Kozma-like offensive liability in the lineup and is close to double-switch or forced into action due to injury status now.

Grade F: Shane Robinson, Daniel Descalso, Peter Bourjos

Robinson has developed a reputation has being a serviceable sub, but between trips up and down Highway 55 between St. Louis and Memphis he hasn’t quite delivered on the time he’s kept a default fill-in role on the roster. His average is pushing at .140 and his defense isn’t strong enough to support that.

Speaking of one sided contribution, that is the story of Descalso as well, only to a slightly lesser degree. He does fill a necessary role as backup on the left side of the infield, but fielding a below .200 average and playing a marginal at-best shortstop, he’s not made a tremendous case for himself in a year where he’s gotten plenty of looks.

What Bourjos had to offer offensively was always more about tools than it was about them relaying into production; he has always struggled with that. And while he has added a much needed speed dynamic when he reaches base, he has only achieved that at .276% clip. That is not enough to warrant everyday consideration, thus the early demotion to rotational defensive replacement/twice a week starter already.

Incomplete: Pete Kozma, Greg Garcia, Oscar Taveras, Randal Grichuk

Kozma and Garcia both made brief appearances with the club, but were not able to crack in front of the Descalso backup preference. It would be good to see Garcia get a more extended look at some point, as he showed some promise in his seven games up, but he will probably need to make a more overwhelming point at Memphis than he currently is (.248/.339/.376) to push the issue.

The second half will tell more of the story for both Taveras and Grichuk. It’s unfair to grade the two rookies yet, just due to the fact they have not had much in the way of extended and consistent time as of yet to showcase what they can do. But second half will certainly provide a suitable proving ground, especially for Oscar. The push to find at-bats for the organization’s prized prospect will take priority, especially if the incumbents continue to stumble through at-bats. However, he will need to eventually turn the at-bats into production to help put the team over, but getting him experience is of the utmost importance.

Grichuk managed only a .136 mark over 46 at-bats, showing that he needed more seasoning on the farm, specifically versus the breaking ball. Staying at Memphis into September is the smartest possible course of action for him right now.

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The Cardinals Will Have a Strong Left Side of the Infield for Years to Come

AledmysDiaz

 

Over the last week, the Cardinals have made two moves that have locked up and solidified the left side of the infield for years to come. It has also, for the first time in years, guaranteed strength at two positions that have not always been the strongest positions on the team.

The Cards have had a sort of rotating door at shortstop for years. For the short period when Rafeal Furcal was healthy, the team was getting production. But when he was hurt, they had to rely on the likes of Ryan Theriot and Pete Kozma. Those experiments did not pan out and SS has remained a weak spot on the lineup.

Somewhat similarly at third base, David Freese has been good when healthy, but Cardinal fans are very privy on his health issues and it became impossible to rely on a full season from Freese, regardless of what kind of production he gave when he was at a hundred percent.

Last week, the Cardinals signed Matt Carpenter to a 6 year, $52 million dollar extension. The contract particulars per year include:

  • 6 years guaranteed
  • $52 million guaranteed (including a $1.5 million signing bonus)
  • 2014:  $1 million
  • 2015:  $3.5 million
  • 2016:  $6.25 million
  • 2017:  $9.75 million
  • 2018:  $13.5 million
  • 2019:  $14.5 million
  • 2020:  Club option for $18.5 million or $2 million buyout

Last year, Carpenter put up MVP numbers. He is 28  years old and his current contract will carry him until he is 34 years old. Those are some prime years the Cards will get from the third baseman, and hopefully some career stats will come with it.

Along with the extension, the Cards signed Cuban free-agent shortstop Aledmys Diaz to a 4 year, $8 million dollar contract. Diaz is a very promising signing, but isn’t quite the guarantee that Carpenter is. There are some major questions surrounding him. Can he stick at SS? Is his bat good enough to transfer to another position? Where does he start next season?

The signing is ultimately a good risk for the Cardinals, and in comparison to other recent Cuban defectors, is a bargain for the team.

Another benefit of the Diaz signing was the prior signing of Jhonny Peralta in the off-season. By signing Peralta to a 4 year, $52 million year contract, they have locked up the position for years to come. And that hasn’t changed at all. It does make the Diaz singing slightly confusing. But it is definitely a good problem for the team to have.

Other safety nets on the left side of the infield

Greg Garcia

The minor leaguer has been in the wings for years, waiting for his chance to come up. Last year with Memphis he hit an impressive .281/.386/.403. The high on base pct and the ability to steal bases positions Garcia to be a solid top-of-the-order player.

Pete Kozma

Most Cardinals’ fans would be happy to never see Kozma be a regular-day starter again. But desperate times may call for desperate measures. And with DL stints inevitable, Kozma could fill in at times. He is also still young, so development and improvement are possible.

Oscar Mercado

Mercado was drafted 57 overall last year by the Cards. The 18 year-old is a slender 6’2, 175 pounds. He is an option later down the road, but has promising upside. A Bleacher Report scouting report ranks him on the 80-point scale at:

Hitting: 35/55

Power: 30/40

Speed: 50/50

Defense: 45/60

Arm: 50/55

So a lot of questions remained unanswered. But they are good questions to have. Along with having two proven All-Stars at third and shortstop next year, the Cardinals also have many more options in the future.

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Cardinals Create Own Misfortune In Game One

In many regards, the Cardinals have been a max effort team throughout their playoff run. From a string of uncanny, timely pitching performances, to just the right hits to get by, they have found a seamless way to survive. However, on Wednesday night in Boston, those seams popped and the Cardinal chances quickly followed suit.

Pete-Kozma-630x350

There is not a postseason series that is devoid of “the moment”. Whether it be a critical defensive play, pitch placement or a hit find the right opening in the field, it is the turn of these plays that more often than not decides the turn of a series. Murphy’s Law was firmly rooted against the Cardinals in each and every one of these instances from onset of the Game One of the World Series, and they paid an instant price. Red Sox pitcher Jon Lester owned the corners in the top of the first inning, while Adam Wainwright uncharacteristically missed them. Boston made the best of the mini-slump from the Cardinal Ace, and the substandard Cardinal defense made sure they stuck.

The most notable play of the night will remain the first of this series of unfortunate events, where shortstop Pete Kozma’s moves without out the ball were executed more flawlessly than his ones with it. On a quick attempt at an inning-salvaging double play was initiated by Matt Carpenter, Kozma uncharacteristically missed the exchange at the base, a play that had its biggest impact to come after its completion. After the play was overturned by a rare umpire tribunal, it was made that even the runner coming into second was safe after Kozma never had control of the ball to record an out.

As such things always seem to unfold; this error was followed immediately by a definitive hit in the game by first baseman Mike Napoli in the next at-bat. He cleared the bases on a hanging Wainwright delivery and cleared the bases, putting the Red Sox ahead permanently.

Yet that moment was far from the only miscue of the day for the sloppy Cardinal defense. An inning that began with a miscue between Wainwright and Yadier Molina on a routine infield pop fly, it was Kozma’s second error in as many innings which blew things open yet again, which led the second time the bases were loaded in the young game. On the following play, Dustin Pedroia chopped a routine ball within range of both Kozma and David Freese at third, yet got past both and drove in the fourth run of the game, as well as kept the base loaded and the game alive.

Yet, it was the next at-bat that was the most ironic of the game, and could have the most resonating impact of the game. David Ortiz came within inches of his second grand slam of the postseason if not for a world-beating grab by Carlos Beltran at the right field fence. But in the course of making the grab, Beltran banged is open rib cage on the outfield wall, an outcome that forced him from the game at the close of the inning. While Beltran’s hospital returns were X-Rays and cat scans which showed no serious reasons for concern, in the same way that they benefitted from the injury to Hanley Ramirez in the NLCS, they could be forced to battle through for themselves now with a sore Beltran.

After this early string of misfortunes, the Cardinal momentum was sufficiently deadened. While they mounted a brief threat in the fifth inning, as well as broke up the team shutout bid in the ninth inning on a long Matt Holliday home run, their fate was long since decided, and largely by their own doing. The 8-1 loss gave the Red Sox a 1-0 lead in the series, an edge that has resulted in a win in the last 24 World Series contest.

The Cardinals have been a team that has played at best when performing in concert, as Game Six of the National League Championship Series displayed. Yesterday’s game was a study in what happens when that same display happens in the contrary. Boston did the three things well that win baseball games on Wednesday: pitched well, played well at home and capitalized on mistakes. For the Cardinals to return to St. Louis tomorrow night with the series under control, they must do their part to assure there are fewer chances for the Sox to make good on the latter scenario.

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What Does The Future Hold – Cardinals Contracts and Scenarios

As the St. Louis Cardinals face the final weekend of the National League Championship Series, and the baseball year as a whole rolls into its final go around shortly, the show still goes on, regardless of outcome. Sooner or later, the tone of the year quickly turns to the personnel part and the future becomes the present. Free agency, retirements, trades and rumors will rule the roost for the next three months, and the Cardinals will be far from on the outside looking in.

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While the team has the rare pleasure of having the vast majority its entire core and active roster under team control for not only 2013, but 2014 as well, the business is safe to continue as is for the near future. But exactly how is the design of the team set up entering the winter? Here is the entire breakdown of the Cardinal roster, including what’s to come, what will cost what and how contract status works into the personnel decisions that could loom.

(Contract figures per Cots Contracts & Baseball Reference)

Guaranteed Contracts—$71.5M guaranteed in 2014

Adam Wainwright (32, $97.5M through 2018)

Matt Holliday (34, $51M through 2017 w/ $17M team option in 2018)

Yadier Molina (31, $44M through 2017, w/ $15M team option in 2018)

Allen Craig (30, $28.5M through 2017, w/ $13M team option in 2018)

Jaime Garcia (27, $17M through 2015, w/ $23.5M total in separate team options in ’16-’17)

Jason Motte (32, $7.5M through 2014)

Randy Choate (38, $6M through 2015)

The vast majority of the Cardinal veteran core is not only signed, but is contracted through the next four seasons at minimum. Wainwright, Holliday and Molina are likely on career carrying deals, while the team locked up young, quickly proven players such as Craig and Garcia early in their careers, and have control through their best years underway. Motte is the lone pending free agent on the 2014 team, and will have a show-and-prove year as he returns to the ninth inning from Tommy John surgery early in the season.

Arbitration Eligibles

John Axford (31, Stage 2, $5M in 2013; Non-Tender Candidate)

David Freese (31, Stage 2, $3.15M in 2013)

Jon Jay (29, Stage 1, $524,000 in 2013)

Daniel Descalso (26, Stage 1, $511,000 in 2013)

Fernando Salas (29, Stage 1, $512,000 in 2013; Non-Tender Candidate)

While Craig and Motte are locked up, the remainder of the formerly young Cardinal cast is in the midst of their arbitration years. At maximum, Freese, Jay and Descalso are under team control through 2015, but there will be a few tough calls in this tier of the team, and none harder to predict than Freese, who is due for a raise into the $5M range, but had his worst year of his career. Axford’s case will be the most interesting case, as he is a high-ceiling talent, but will carry a difficult price tag for what is likely a seventh inning bridge pitcher to carry.

Pre-Arbitration

Lance Lynn (27, Stage 3)

Matt Carpenter (28, Stage 3; Buy-out Candidate)

Tony Cruz (27, Stage 3)

Shane Robinson (29, Stage 3)

Shelby Miller (23, Stage 2)

Michael Wacha (23, Stage 2)

Carlos Martinez (22, Stage 2)

Pete Kozma (26, Stage 2)

Trevor Rosenthal (24, Stage 2)

Kevin Siegrist (24, Stage 2)

Seth Maness (25, Stage 2)

Matt Adams (25, Stage 2)

Joe Kelly (26, Stage 2)

Keith Butler (25, Stage 2)

Sam Freeman (26, Stage 2)

Tyler Lyons (26, Stage 2)

John Gast (25, Stage 2)

Kolten Wong (22, Stage 2)

Adron Chambers (27, Stage 2)

The core of the Cardinal team is its youth, as the group that was heralded as the top organization in all of baseball before the season has seen many of its jewels hit the big leagues. Of the 19 players in this section, no less than 12 are virtual locks to be on the Opening Day roster, and none will come in at cost of more than $525,000. This is where the cost control of youth, performing youth at that, shows it’s most advantageous asset. And with only Lynn, Carpenter, Cruz and Robinson on pace to reach arbitration status over the next two years, unless the team decides to up the ante on an early long-term deal to buy out any of this group’s arbitration seasons, this will be a strong asset on the side of the team’s purchasing power, if needed.

Free Agents

Carlos Beltran ($13M)

Jake Westbrook ($8.75M, $9.5M team option will be declined)

Chris Carpenter ($10.5M, will likely retire)

Rafael Furcal ($7M)

Edward Mujica ($3.2M)

Rob Johnson ($750,000)

There are a few ifs and a few certainties here. The certainties start with Jake Westbrook, who’s 2014 option is all but certain to be declined. Furcal and Carpenter will not return as well, with retirement on the horizon for Carpenter and Furcal missing all of the season with Tommy John surgery, and the team having moved on from him before spring training commenced. Mujica is due for a raise, despite his late season struggles, and will likely price himself out of returning for the capacity he would be needed in.

 

Post-2014 Free Agent Candidates

Motte, Axford, Freese

Post 2015 Free Agent Candidates

Garcia, Choate

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Déjà vu Threatens Cardinals All Over Again

Down 2-1, and faced with nothing elimination games ahead in their Divisional Series match up with the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Cardinals find themselves in a familiar place. But not the type of “they’ve been behind before” postseason rhetoric that has been tagged to the club so often recently, rather it directly correlates to the way their season ended last time around. While the pitching alignments get the buzz, it is the lineup that is once again failing the Cardinals.

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It has now been two full games since the Cardinals had a lead at any point versus Pittsburgh. Along the way, the Cardinals have been buried by the same type of timely hitting from the Pirates core that the Cardinal collective has been prided on. Pedro Alvarez, Russell Martin and Marlon Byrd have collaborated to drive in more runs (16) than the Cardinals have combined for as a club (11).

Basically, they are being beat at their own game. After a season where the Cardinals were the second most productive team offense, hitting for a .269 average, they have torpedoed to a .219 average through the first three games of the series. Carlos Beltran’s once again outstanding October effort aside, as well as solid showings from Yadier Molina and Matt Adams, the rest of the lineup has brutally underperformed. Highlighted by a 1 for 11 (.091) spin by Matt Carpenter, a 2 for 12 effort by Matt Holliday (.167) and a pair of 2 for 10 showings from Jon Jay and David Freese, the same type of large scale outage that sunk the team over the last three games of 2012 has made an untimely return.

There is a huge difference in the 2012 postseason Cardinals than any past incarnation however, and it is a simple see: it is not a deep team. Whereas in years past there were Allen Craig, Lance Berkman and Matt Carpenter among others to supply hits off the bench, there is no such presence of that sort this year. Look no further than the final two batters in yesterday’s game, Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso, who, respectively, hit .217 and .238 on the year. It’s a striking showing that their were no other bats available to take those opportunities, and proves resoundingly the depth the team lost when Craig was lost for what looks to be the season. The bottom line is simply, what starts is what has to produce, and the group failings to do so (a .192 average from the starting lineup over the past 18 innings) is creating a brutal case of déjà vu.

Over the past the last three games of last season’s National League Championship Series, the Cardinals mounted one run across three games, which unfolded in the same home, then road-road sequence. While the team is guaranteed to score more runs than last with yesterday’s output, there is still simply too much pressure put on the pitching staff to win games.

Game four sees a continuation of yesterday, with Michael Wacha going to the mound for his first postseason appearance of his career. While he has been effective against the Pirates, and is the best available option to start this game, even with his best efforts will be for nil if the team continues to leave runners on base

In a most poetic situation in how the year has unfolded, it is the young arms that have been leaned on to pitch in high leverage situations, and while the rookie staff as performed impeccably throughout the year, they still are young. The postseason is made for veterans to deliver, and for all of the strides the team took this season, it finds itself on the verge of ending in not only the same fashion, but at an earlier clip if it cannot work out the order of things by 5:00 this evening.

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Matt Carpenter for MVP: Now it’s Getting Serious

MattCarpenter

Several months I wrote this article arguing that Matt Carpenter could win the MVP. In the article I pointed out how it wasn’t such a wild idea; how he had the numbers for the sabermetrics community along with being a professional workhorse who switched positions for the betterment of the team, which pleases the more traditionalist crowd. I finished the article with:

So all of this hopefully shows Carpenter’s name should be in the hat. With a consistent or even superior second half, he can be the first second baseman to win the MVP since Jeff Kent in 2000. And the first Cardinals second baseman to win it since Frankie Frisch in 1931.

Not bad for someone who was without a position last year.

While Carpenter didn’t necessarily have a “superior” second half, but he did have an equally exceptional second half.

Carpenter’s first half: .321/.394/.497

Carpenter’s second half: .328/.401/.480

Since then, talk has caught on. The Cardinals broadcasters mention almost every night there is an increasing chance he may win. There’s a Facebook group dedicated to him winning (full disclosure: due to my article I was asked to be an admin on the group).

There’s plenty of other articles dedicated to Carpenter winning. It’s been covered further on our site. Bernie Miklasz talked about it here.

The Bleacher Report on his MVP chances

The question of Matt Carpenter as a legitimate NL MVP candidate is not just fluff. This young man is the real deal.

He’s come through for the Cardinals with his bat, his glove and most of all, his grit.

Carpenter is a scrapper. He’s asked to learn second base and comes back as one of the game’s best active second baseman.

Rob Rains claiming he should be in the discussion

Carpenter’s .313 batting average after Sunday’s game ties him for sixth in the NL. He scored his league-leading 97th run on Sunday and his two hits increased his season total to 157, two ahead of Milwaukee’s Jean Segura for the most in the league. He also hit his league-high 43rd double and his total of 58 extra-base hits is tied with Goldschmidt and one behind league-leader Jay Bruce of the Reds.

Even beyond the regular statistics, Carpenter’s value to the Cardinals can be found in the success he has had as the team’s leadoff hitter, where his contribution can be measured in many different ways. The most important one is that when he hits and gets on base, the Cardinals have a much better chance of winning the game.

Rant Sports on the power of his hitting despite having to work over the offseason on switching positions

Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Matt Carpenter is quietly putting together an MVP-caliber year. He leads the NL in hits, doubles, and has the highest on-base percentage among lead-off hitters. He has 58 multi-hit games, the highest in baseball. 

Here, ESPN counts down the top 5 probable leaders for the NL MVP. They put Carpenter just outside the top 5, claiming

He’s been a huge unsung hero for the Cardinals, filling dual voids at second base and the leadoff spot. Carpenter is on track to become the first St. Louis hitter with 50 doubles in a season since Albert Pujols in 2004.

I do admit if I was a voter, I would have a hard time voting for him over McCutchen too, but Carpenter definitely has a strong case. Out of the top 5 on ESPN, here is his chance of beating all 5.

Andrew McCutchen – .319/.405/.510

Why Carpenter can beat him – As I said, McCutchen is going to be tough to beat. What may hold him back though is the same thing that may hurt Carpenter: neither excelled greatly at a traditional line. McCutchen only hit 20 homeruns. Didn’t hit the 100 RBI mark. Voters may see that and vote for another player who hit 30 homeruns or 100 RBIs.

Yadier Molina – .314/.355/.471

Why Carpenter can beat him – Along with having 150 more at bats, Carpenter simply had a better year.

Paul Goldschmidt – .304/.405/.556

Why Carpenter can beat him – Goldschmidt’s team won’t make the playoffs. Love or hate that unwritten rule, it’ll still deter some voters.

Freddie Freeman – .314/.392/.500

Why Carpenter can beat him – Freeman, like Carpenter, is a long shot. And when you get to long-shots, voters start to really study the stats more. And Carpenter has better stats.

Clayton Kershaw – 15-9 1.88 ERA

Why Carpenter can beat him – Pitchers can win the MVP, but they need to have exceptional numbers. Kershaw’s numbers are good enough to easily win the Cy Young. But don’t see him winning MVP.

The last second baseman to win the MVP was Dustin Pedroia in 2008. How do the numbers compare between Pedroia that year and Carpenter this year?

Carpenter has a higher batting average, higher on base percentage, higher OPS, more runs created, a higher WAR and will probably end the season with more RBIs while hitting leadoff behind the pitchers spot.

Things are getting serious in Carpenter’s MVP bid. And since the first article, my thought has changed from how Carpenter COULD win the MVP to how Carpenter SHOULD win the MVP.

Follow me on Twitter @pchibbard

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St. Louis Cardinals have MVP candidates, probably not MVP winner

The St. Louis Cardinals have had several players jump toward the front of the National League Most Valuable Player discussion throughout the season, but none of them are likely to win the award once the season is complete.

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Catcher Yadier Molina started the season on an incredible tear. He led the National League in batting average for much of the first half, peaking at .367 on June 18. He also has played his typically fantastic brand of defense and will likely win his sixth consecutive Gold Glove Award.

However, Molina’s right knee started to give him trouble at the end of July while the Cardinals were in the middle of their season-worst seven-game losing streak. Molina sat on the disabled list for the minimum 15 days and has continued to be a very valuable player for the Cardinals, but his batting average is now back down to .316, just one point better than his 2012 batting average when he finished fourth in the MVP voting.

Because defense is nearly always undervalued in the MVP vote, Molina probably will not win his first MVP award this season.

First baseman Allen Craig has his batting average at .315 and was near the league lead with 97 runs batted in through the beginning of September. He also has a league-leading .454 batting average with runners in scoring position, but he has hit just 13 homeruns and has not played since he hurt his right foot Sept. 4.

No player has hit fewer than 15 homeruns and won the National League MVP award since former Cardinals outfielder Willie McGee received the honor in 1985 with just 10 homers.

That precedent could also hurt the Cardinals third MVP candidate, Matt Carpenter, who has been incredibly consistent throughout the season and has started to draw attention as a possible recipient of postseason awards, but he has just 10 homeruns.

Of course, homeruns are not an important part of Carpenter’s game.

Carpenter leads the National League in runs scored (121), hits (193) and doubles (53). He is also third in the league in extra base hits, third in batting average, tied for fourth in singles and eighth in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a sabremetric that incorporates data to spit out a number that says how many more wins a player adds to his team than an average major leaguer.

Unfortunately for Carpenter and the rest of the Cardinals MVP candidates, the man who will most likely win the award is first in WAR and has numbers across the board jus slightly better than the Cardinals players. Plus, he has a potentially wonderful storyline that will almost certainly help his chances.

The Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen will probably be the National League MVP if the Pirates don’t lose nearly all of their remaining games and fall from a playoff spot.

McCutchen has a better batting average (.323), more homeruns (20), more RBIs (82) and more stolen bases (27) than any of the Cardinals’ candidates.

And McCutchen is the leader of a team that has clinched its first winning season in 20 years and is on the verge of its first postseason appearance in that same time frame. Like it or not, some of the MVP voters will take that into consideration.

The Cardinals players can’t beat McCutchen with their numbers, and they cannot beat the story of his season in Pittsburgh.

But that’s how the MVP vote has gone for Cardinals players for a generation now. Chicago Cubs right fielder Sammy Sosa won the 1998 MVP even though Cardinals first baseman Mark McGwire set the single-season homerun record at 70 because the Cubs made the playoffs while the Cardinals finished third in the NL Central.

San Francisco Giants left fielder Barry Bonds’ assault on the Major League Baseball record books overshadowed the great seasons Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen had in 2004, and Bonds kept Pujols from winning the MVP in 2002 and 2003, as well.

The Cardinals have been blessed with players who have had seasons that rival the best in the game for much of the past 15 years, but sometimes a perennially good team with multiple players who have great seasons can keep any one of them from winning the ultimate individual award.

Of course, not many Cardinals fans or players would probably care if they get the chance to celebrate their third World Series championship in seven years in about six weeks.

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Carpenter, Beltran and the Cardinal’s Pandora’s Box

The big question regarding the Cardinals going ahead is how will all of the assets they have fit into one roster. While there is no clear solution to that question yet, one thing that is for certain is that the biggest variable is the team’s most versatile player, Matt Carpenter.

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Whenever the 2013 season comes to a close, the season’s steadiest question will quickly become its loudest: what is going to happen with Carlos Beltran? The club’s most high profile free agent-to-be has made no secret of his desire to return with the team next spring, but while admitting that it is on the club’s radar of decisions to be made, John Mozeliak has not public committed to what extent the team would be willing to go to in order to pursue a continued relationship between player and team.

The reasons for this are simple; despite an unquestionably strong tenure in the Cardinal uniform, including two All-Star Games and 55 home runs, neither age (he will turn 37 next year) nor positional alignment fit easily into the picture going ahead. Reasons for this have included most prominently the presence of Oscar Taveras at Memphis, but perhaps more quietly the price tag of a potential part-time presence in the outfield. Add in the urge to find more at-bats for Matt Adams, while not sacrificing Allen Craig’s presence in the lineup as well, and there are a plethora of optimal situations that make a Beltran return a tough situation to imagine.

But on the other side of the equation, there is the question of if the team can afford to let him go as well. He has been a dependable power threat in a season where they have been few and far between for the team. And the issue of if Taveras both returns healthy from the nagging ankle issue that ended his 2012 early, as well as how he transitions to the Majors, loom as well. If either of those issues looms, an absence of Beltran could create quite a hole for the team, which could have been avoided.

However, the presence of Carpenter could alleviate any and all of these issues. While he has risen to his call as a second baseman in a resounding fashion, he is only a year removed from being the team’s ultimate utility man. In the upcoming years, the everyday lineup of the Cardinals has the potential to fluctuate on nearly a matchup-to-matchup basis, due to the meeting of the veterans and emerging farm system at the MLB level.

A regular feature of this mix will be Carpenter, who Mozeliak made it abundantly clear the team will be pursuing a long-term pact with soon. However, his position going ahead could best be considered being deployed again as an everyday utility weapon, in the style of how Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist has been used over the years.  The best starting spot for this could prove to be right field, where alternating Carpenter in a few times a week gets a chance to use himself, David Freese and Kolten Wong together, in addition to allowing Allen Craig or Matt Adams to stay in a first base. A move back to second or third gets the uber, “Coming Atractions” duo of Wong and Taveras on the field together as well.

While the possibilities of the Cardinal lineup are very diverse in the next few years, there is a chance that the full potential is oddly not reached by keeping one of its current All-Stars in the mix, while maximizing the abilities of another showcases more of the team’s full potential can currently being imagined.

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St. Louis Cardinals can survive without Allen Craig until playoffs

After a season filled with injuries to the pitching staff, now the St. Louis Cardinals will have to deal with an injury to one of their starting fielders, who also happened to be one of their most important hitters.

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First baseman and occasional right fielder Allen Craig suffered a sprained left foot Wednesday in Cincinnati during a game against the Reds that the Cardinals eventually won 5-4 in 16 innings.

Craig went back to St. Louis for further examination Thursday and at least found out he did not have any broken bones in his foot. That probably gives him a chance to return before the end of the season, which is significant.

The Cardinals can likely survive through the rest of September without Craig even though he leads the team with 97 runs batted in and is tied with second baseman Matt Carpenter for the second-best batting average on the team at .315, behind catcher Yadier Molina’s .322 average.

In the worst case scenario, the Cardinals offense would fall flat without Craig’s contributions, specifically his incredible .454 batting average with runners in scoring position, and the team would lose the division title to the Reds or Pittsburgh Pirates and have to play in the one-game Wild Card round for the second consecutive year.

However, the Cardinals do have a solid backup for Craig. Matt Adams has been the Cardinals best hitter off of the bench this season, he has a .269 average with 11 homeruns and 38 RBIs in just 212 at-bats, which is about half of an everyday player. Plus, fans have clamored for Adams to get more playing time through much of the season.

Well, here’s his chance.

He certainly made an impressive first impression Wednesday with homers in the 14th and 16th innings to help the Cardinals win, but becoming a consistent hitter in the middle of the lineup will be vital for Adams now that he will be the starting first baseman for the foreseeable future while Craig’s foot heals.

The Cardinals also have 13 consecutive games against teams with losing records after they finish a three-game series with the Pirates during this upcoming weekend, so they will likely face less-than-dominant pitching that could allow the Cardinals to win even when the offense is not clicking on all cylinders.

But the Cardinals will be in an entirely different scenario come the playoffs in October. Those games are often dominated by good pitchers, and timely hits determine the outcome.

Craig is perhaps the best timely hitter in Major League Baseball, and the Cardinals would sorely miss his bat in the lineup during the playoffs.

The team got good news Thursday when Craig’s X-Rays and MRI came back negative, but it should not push its luck and force him back onto the field during the regular season unless he truly is fully healed.

If Craig can’t play the rest of the regular season, fine. It would certainly be nice to have his production in the lineup during the final weeks of the race for the National League Central Division title, but that will not determine whether or not the Cardinals are considered champions at the end of the year.

The most important title is settled in late October, and that is when Craig will be the most valuable

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Cardinals-Braves: A Birds Eye View

The Cardinals return home from a suspenseful, yet successful road trip to face the Atlanta Braves for a four game tilt starting Thursday night. A matchup between two teams basically working on their best postseason alignment at this point, as well as a showdown between the two leading hitters in the National League, Yadier Molina and Chris Johnson, both carrying .332 averages on the season into the series.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros

There are also other underlying themes as well however. The recent history between the two teams has been a checklist of baseball extremes. The Braves have won three of the last four games head up versus the Cardinals, sweeping their first encounter of 2013 in Atlanta from July 26-28th. However, the sole St. Louis victory was a huge one, where they beat the Braves, and a then undeniable Kris Medlen, in the one game Wild Card Playoff game back in October. Highlighted by the immediately infamous “infield fly” rule call, the Cardinals started their need run back to the World Series in Atlanta, and also started what’s become a mild rivalry between the two teams.

Here’s the current story of the two teams that will meet through this weekend in St. Louis:

Cardinals coming in: The Cardinals are coming with a record of 73-53, second place in the NL Central and winners of their previous three series, all against NL Central foes in the Pirates, Cubs and Brewers. They are winners of seven of their last ten contests, two games ahead for the first Wild Card spot and 7 ahead of the third place position. Their 37 road wins are the most in either league, and they lead the NL in runs scored for the season, with 606.

The team is 5-1 in games started by Molina since he returned from the disabled list last Thursday….Jon Jay leads the team in hits (24), RBI (17) and total bases (41) in August….After going hitless in his first eight at-bats, Kolten Wong has hit .500 (5 for 10) with two runs scored and three stolen bases in his last two games….Matt Carpenter has nine doubles in August, raising his NL-best total to 41. He is on pace for 53 on the season, which would be the best Cardinal season since Albert Pujols’ 51 in 2003 & 2004….Across a combined 32.1 August innings, Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist and Edward Mujica have not surrendered a run.

Braves coming in: Atlanta enters with the best record in baseball, at 77-49 and is 15.5 games ahead in the NL East. The three wins they landed against St. Louis in late July propelled them to a 14-game winning streak, their second run of at least 10 consecutive wins on the year. They have had some health challenges, with Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward and Taylor Pastornicky all going to the disabled list in the past week, which brings the current total of Braves on the DL up to 10. Despite this, they are second only to the Cardinals in runs scored this season, with 559 and have earned at least a split in their last 10 series.

Heyward, who was placed on the DL with a broken jaw yesterday, was hitting .359 in August, with a team-best 23 hits….after a mid-season dry spell, Justin Upton has hit seven home runs this month, raising his total to 23….first baseman Freddie Freeman is scorching currently, entering the series with multi-hit games in last four contests, good for a .450 average (9 for 20)….as a staff, Braves pitchers have a 2.50 ERA in August

 

Pitching Matchups

Thursday (7:15)—Joe Kelly (4-3) vs. Paul Maholm (9-9): Maholm is making a return start after a stint on the DL battling a wrist injury. A long-time Pirate, the lefty is 4-7 with a 4.06 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Cardinals. Kelly enters as the hottest arm in the St. Louis mix, with a 3-0 record on the month and since returning to the rotation, allowing 1 or less runs in six of nine outings.

Friday (7:15)—Adam Wainwright (14-7) vs. Kris Medlen (10-11): Wainwright broke a five game winless streak on Sunday in Chicago, allowing one run in seven innings, while reaching double digits in strikeouts for the first time since June 1. Medlen will make his first start in 10 days, after being forced to throw three relief innings in 15 inning loss to the Nationals on Saturday.

Saturday (6:15)—Shelby Miller (11-8) vs. Julio Teheran (10-6): The matchup of two of the best young arms in baseball will take place on Saturday. Teheran has been Atlanta’s best arm over the last few weeks, going 3-1 and striking out 26 in his last 23 innings. Miller has been sharper in his second outing back from the line drive that ended his August 7th start vs. the Dodgers. In Milwaukee on Monday, he struck out 8 in five innings, while surrendering five hits over 5.1 innings. He has received a win since August 2nd.

Sunday (1:15)—Lance Lynn (13-7) vs. Brandon Beachy (2-1): Lynn looks to rebound from a laborious start saw him surrender six runs (four earned) in taking the loss on Wednesday night. His August ERA is 4.50, his highest of any month this year. Beachy will be making his fifth start of the year after his July return from Tommy John surgery. Lifetime, the 26-year-old righty is 1-0 vs. the Cardinals, with a 2.08 ERA in two starts.

Injury Impact—St. Louis, 60 Day DL: Jason Motte (elbow), Chris Carpenter (shoulder), Rafael Furcal (elbow), Jaime Garcia (shoulder), John Gast (Shoulder). 15 Day DL: Tony Cruz (forearm). Atlanta, 60 Day DL: Jonny Venters (elbow), Eric O’Flaherty (elbow), Tim Hudson (ankle), Cristhian Martinez (Shoulder). 15 Day DL: Jason Heyward (Jaw), Dan Uggla (eye), Tyler Pastornicky (ACL), Ramiro Pena (shoulder), Reed Johnson (Achilles).

Stadium News

–          It’s Fredbird’s Birthday Bash Weekend at Busch. Giveaways include a Cardinals Canvas Print on Friday, Fredbird kid’s cap (15 and younger) on Saturday and a stuffed Fredbird from Build-A-Bear Workshop on Sunday (15 and younger)

 

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