Tag Archive | "Leverage"

St. Louis Cardinals need more Joe Kelly, less Mitchell Boggs

The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-1 Friday, but they had to survive another bad performance from reliever Mitchell Boggs while Joe Kelly once again proved he should be used more often.

JoeKelly2

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny didn’t give Boggs a chance to completely blow the 5-1 lead he had when he entered the game to start the eighth inning, but he did load the bases while recording just one out.

Left-handed specialist Randy Choate bailed him out by forcing Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez to hit into an inning-ending double play, but the Cardinals could have avoided the entire situation if they’d used Joe Kelly to start the inning.

In fact, the Cardinals might not have had to suffer through nearly as many lousy bullpen outings if they had used Kelly more in the first three weeks of the season. Matheny has instead used him in situations such as Friday’s ninth inning when the Cardinals had already opened an eight-run lead.

The bullpen has been the Achilles’ heel of the team so far this season. It had a collective 4.84 earned-run average through 22 games and blew four leads for a starting rotation that has a 2.12 ERA and has kept the team in all but one game so far this season.

Part of the problem is the Cardinals lost their regular closer, Jason Motte, to an elbow injury during spring training and had to scramble to fill his spot right before the regular season started.

Boggs was a logical choice to open the season as the Cardinals’ closer after a great 2012 season when he was the eighth-inning setup reliever. He had career-best 2.21 ERA while pitching in 78 games and earning 34 holds.

But he was a completely different pitcher as the closer. He has allowed 12 runs with eight walks and two blown saves in 11 appearances through the team’s first 22 games. Meanwhile, Kelly has pitched in seven games and allowed four runs with no walks. However, he hasn’t pitched in many high-leverage situations.

Now, that’s not to say Kelly should be the Cardinals closer. Edward Mujica stepped into that role nicely by earning two saves each on recent road series in Philadelphia and Washington.

That move has settled the bullpen, for now, but Kelly must have a larger role in the late innings if the Cardinals are going to consistently keep teams from completing late-inning comebacks.

Matheny recently referred to Kelly as “a Ferrari” that is a nice luxury to have in the bullpen, but that resource is nearly useless if it only sits in the garage.

Instead, Boggs and rookie reliever Trevor Rosenthal have come out of the bullpen seemingly every single day. Rosenthal has pitched in 12 games already, the most of any pitcher on the team despite also being the youngest.

That’s a lot of pressure to put on a young pitcher and his arm so early into his first full big-league season. Yes, Rosenthal throws really hard and can be an effective weapon out of the bullpen, but flamethrowers don’t always last that long.

For example, the Detroit Tigers had a bullpen that included 100 mph-plus throwers Joel Zumaya Fernando Rodney, but both suffered injuries within two years.

The Cardinals have excellent pitching depth in the minor leagues, but Rosenthal is a prized possession and should be treated as such. Kelly also throws really hard and has enormous potential, but he pitched in the starting rotation much of 2012 and is more accustomed to the demands of a Major League Baseball season.

However, Matheny continues to bring in Rosenthal nearly every night, and Boggs pitches in game after game as the team waits for him to fix his motion while Kelly sits out in the bullpen.

And that type of bullpen management could continue to cost the Cardinals ballgames before Mujica ever reaches the mound until Kelly receives a larger role in the late innings.

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Cardinals Pitching Forced to Evolve Post-Carpenter

Without rushing to judgment or burying a guy too early, time to face facts:  the future in regards to competitive baseball is not looking too promising for Chris Carpenter. With a re-occurrence of the nerve injury that kept him sidelined for much of 2012, the future of the 37-year old pitcher looks to not contain much more active baseball.

St Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants - Game Six

Some of the focus has inevitably shifted away from Carpenter, and to how the St. Louis Cardinals will try to fill the void he will leave in the rotation. There still looms the actual gravity of that situation. Unlike last year, there isn’t the hope of one of the game’s most domineering presences looming, waiting to reinsert himself in the mid-season fray. This was arguably what Carpenter’s biggest impression on the 2012 season was, and eventually became last summer. But that’s gone now, and from all impressions, what’s here now is what you get.

However, that’s not necessarily a totally bad thing. What won’t be possible to do is replace what he epitomizes, but from the standpoint having the talent on hand to deal with such a blow, perhaps no team is better equipped. The great strength of the Cardinals organization is young, power arms. This sudden opening creates another opening for that stockpile to be more widely featured in the Major League starting rotation.

But there will be ripple effect that goes into play, and many different actors will see themselves up more high leverage roles in the rotation, and ultimately throughout the season. Who fits in best, and where? Adam Wainwright will be the anchor atop the rotation, while Jake Westbrook will stabilize the backend as the fourth starter, but nothing less than everything changed everywhere else today. Here’s the potential impact, and new calling, the loss of Carpenter could carry for each of his young potential heirs.

Lance Lynn: He goes from competing for the fifth starter role to most the most qualified to directly take Carpenter’s place as the #2 starter. His 18-win, All-Star campaign from a year ago looks much better on paper than it played out in real time, but he represents the best combination of experience and top-end stuff to fill the role. He averaged 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but will have to pitch more efficiently and self-reliantly than he did a year ago to be a true asset in the role (11-0 with six or more runs scored, 6-5 with 5 or less).

Jaime Garcia: Who know s what to call from the sole lefty starting option in the rotation. That feature alone makes him very valuable, but the need for him in the midst of the rotation is offset by the tough truths of his situation. His shoulder health is static, and even when he’s healthy, it’s tough to call what he will offer. He’s given up over nine hits per nine innings the last two years, with a steadily rising ERA. He fits the profile of a solid middle of the rotation starter, winning 13 games in both 2010 and ’11, but if he’s not healthy, yet another question remains. A question that could potentially open up another door, for the most intriguing group of arms in the equation.

Shelby Miller/Trevor Rosenthal/Joe Kelly: And then, there were three. The race for the last spot in the rotation gets easier to pick out with Lynn ascending up the rotation. The decision still will be very difficult, with each representing a different quality. Kelly is the most experienced starter of the group, but Miller and Rosenthal are the more heralded talents of the trio.

This decision could set into motion much of the direction of the team throughout the season. There is next to no chance that Miller works out of the bullpen; he would be sent back to Memphis to continuing starting if he doesn’t win a spot with St. Louis. However, Rosenthal and Kelly have experience in both capacities, and could be immediate assets in the bullpen from Opening Day on. However, due to roster logistics, more likely than not one goes back to the Minors as a starter, one stays on in the bullpen.

How that plays out, anybody knows at this point. But there will be a gain, by yesterday’s unfortunate subtraction somewhere soon.

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Understanding McClellan, reliever only

Last year the St Louis Cardinals entered spring training with Kyle McClellan‘s role unsettled.  He wanted to be a starter but had spent his first years working high-leverage innings late in games.  With the loss of Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery, McClellan was thrust full-time into the rotation.

This year the Cardinals enter spring training with McClellan’s role settled, but his presence in the bullpen uncertain.  Now faced with the possible  loss of Chris Carpenter for at least a few starts,  McClellan, who has 17 major league starts to his name  . . . never came up as a potential replacement.  Lance Lynn is on track to fill in, as needed, for Carpenter.

What – what?  Why did that happen?

McClellan has major league experience out of the rotation, something Lynn doesn’t yet possess.  By all outward appearances Kyle was pretty good before he hurt his hip.  McClellan posted a 6-2 record in his starts prior to May 30, spent 15 days on the DL, then posted a 1-4 record prior to being sent back to the bullpen for the remainder of the season.

Doesn’t seem like enough to disqualify him from this year’s discussion.  If his hip is sound he should be able to return to his pre-injury form.  So why was he left out?  Let’s look a little deeper.

From his first start until the injury, opponents hit .250/.307/.404 against him with a .257 average on balls in play.  After he returned from the hip injury, opponents hit .272/.322/.426 against him with a .285 BABIP in games he started.  That’s not far off from what he was allowing prior to the injury; worse, but consistent.  As a reliever, he gave up a .264/.341/.496 line and a .269 BABIP.  His numbers got worse as the season progressed regardless of how he was employed.

Here’s what I found interesting.  According to Fangraphs, during his hot period as a starter he was worth exactly 0.1 WAR. In May, his last full month as a starter, he was worth -0.1 WAR.  Yes, WAR uses FIP to evaluate pitchers, FIP heavily penalizes home runs, and McClellan gave up a lot of those last season (8 of his 21 surrendered in those two months).  Nevertheless, isn’t it interesting he was exactly replacement level as a starter the first two months of 2011*?

Maybe the reason St Louis decided to go with Lynn, despite a belief he is more valuable long-term out of the bullpen, is his higher ceiling.  Don’t forget Lynn was the Cardinals minor-league pitcher of the year in 2009 as a starter.  McClellan’s spectacularly average performance while starting last season makes the selection of Lynn to be this year’s spot starter more understandable.

*for the record, in June and July he posted a 0.0 WAR.

Mike Metzger is a freelance writer based out of San Diego.  He also blogs about the Padres.  Follow him on Twitter.

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Soria Might Have Best No-Trade Ever

Joakim Soria

It has been reported that the phones have been ringing off the hook for Joakim Soria. The Yankees have been offer a large list of prospects to the Royals but it is said the the Royals have no real interest in trading Soria and his team friendly contract. The Yankees have even offered Jesus Montero but that was not enough for the Royals to let go of their star closer.

The biggest news was not that the Yankees wanted Soria but that Soria had put Yankees on his list of teams he can not be traded to along with the Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Cardinals and Cubs. It is not too often that players include the leagues best teams in a no-trade clause but after a closer look it is the smartest thing in the world to have in your contract.

Soria does not have some phobia of large cities or the playoffs but he and his agent both realize that teams on his list are big spenders. The reason to block a trade to any of these teams is because the player will have all the leverage if a team such as the Yankees comes after them. It is safe to say that if the Yankees are willing to trade Montero that they would also be willing to ad a few million to his contract to get his approval on a trade.

I think that this no-trade clause is great and if I were a player or agent I would want the same clause. This kind of winner no-trade could become the new fad in baseball with players holding contending teams hostage.

I could see guys putting in no-trade clauses to the Yankees as something simple as that they do not want to shave or cut their hair. This new n0-trade shows a shift from players not wanting to lose but rather wanting a premium to have to deal with the

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What Cliff Lee Trade Means To The Rest Of The League

First of all let me say that I loved that the Yankees did not end up getting Cliff Lee. Seeing the Yankees not get everything they want is a good day in baseball in my book.

Now with that being said we will take a look at what the Lee to Texas deals means to the rest of the league and more importantly the two teams in Missouri. If Lee would have gone to the Yankees, the trade season could have ended right then and there. But now that the Yankees have missed out on their biggest target, more trades are sure to follow. It is safe to say that the Yankees will still be in the trade market for another pitcher even though they are publicly saying they were only after Lee. Even if the Yankees are telling the truth the Rays, Tigers, White Sox, Twins, Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers and Reds all kicked the tires on Lee. This means that there are still a bunch of teams going after the main targets left on the market which are most likely Roy Oswalt, Ted Lilly, and Dan Haren.

Oswalt has a very short list of teams that he is willing to go to so that basically leaves most of the league now bidding on Haren followed by Lilly. This means two things for fans here in Missouri. If you are a Cards fan it means that the trade market just got more expensive because teams with trade chips have more leverage and because the Yankees did not get their guy in the first round of bidding. The good news in St.Louis is that Lee went to the Rangers and not the Reds, Phillies, or Dodgers. The Lee trade could also mean that teams like the Cardinals now feel like they now have to move down to the second or third tier players that are on the trade market.

If the Cardinals move down the trade list the amount of top end talent they will have to give up will lessen. This in my mind is the best scenario for the team because a rental player seems like a reach for a team that is struggling to stay in the wildcard hunt.

If you are a Royals fan the Lee trade is a great thing because the dark horse team won the auction. All of the teams that were said to be the favorites to get Lee lost out. If nothing else the fact the Yankees, who pay their infield more than the whole Kansas City roster, lost something has to feel good.

It also means that every pitcher that the Royals have just got a little more value added to them on the open market. A player like Kyle Farnsworth now looks like a better option to teams needing pitching help but have realized that a starting pitcher will cost too much in a trade. Players like Brian Bannister and Bruce Chen also are now one step higher on the talent ladder thus demanding another prospect be added to any deal. The last ripple is that some teams might turn their focus away from pitching and on to on base base guys like David DeJesus and Jose Gullien.

In the end the Lee trade has made life on the trade market a little more difficult for the Cardinals, while only increasing the value of the chips that the team across the state in Kansas City has on the table.

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