If there’s a fan base pessimistic about everything, it’s the Kansas City Royals fan base. Not being in the playoffs since 1985 and not having a winning season since 2003 does that to you. And with all the other misfortunes the Royals experienced over the years, you can’t blame fans for being pessimistic.

So when the Royals traded top prospect Wil Myers, pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery and infielder Patrick Leonard for Tampa Rays starters James Shields and Wade Davis, a lot of Royals fans, bloggers and pundits panned the trade. They claimed the Royals gave up too many prospects and traded potential long-term success for short-term gain. They believed the trade smacked of desperation, a cynical move by General Manager Dayton Moore to try to keep his job.

But what were the Royals supposed to do? Look, the Rays weren’t about to give up David Price or Jeremy Hellickson for Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery and Leonard. And I doubt adding someone like Eric Hosmer and/or Billy Butler to the deal would change things. The Rays aren’t rebuilding and they have no reason to give up Price and Hellickson. The Rays had room to give up Shields and Davis and still keep their strong, young, starting rotation.

I have to admit I was a little disappointed the Royals gave up Odorizzi. But Odorizzi projects as a number three or four starter, like Davis. And Davis has four years of Major League experience and is a free agent until 2016. If Davis works out as a starter, he could be the key success to the trade. And if he doesn’t fare well as a starter, he can go to the bullpen, where he succeeded with the Rays in 2012.

Making Montgomery a part of the trade made sense. This is the guy some thought would be a part of the Royals 2012 rotation. Instead, Montgomery ended up in AA Northwest Arkansas and struggled there. It’s likely he wouldn’t be with the Royals anytime soon and a change of scenery might do him some good.

The Royals only get two years of Shields, but if he pitches as expected, the Royals have an ace they haven’t had since Zack Greinke. If you’re into statistics, Baseball Reference says Greinke is statistically similar to Shields, who’s going to make $9MM in 2013. Greinke will make $19MM in 2013.

Heck, the Royals will pay Ervin Santana $12MM in 2013 and he’s projected as the number two or three starter. Looking at it that way, Shields is a bargain, even if the Royals pick up Shield’s $12MM 2014 option. If the Royals do well in 2013 and 2014, perhaps Shields signs a multi-year deal with the team. It could happen.

And think about what the Royals didn’t have to give up. Players like Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and pitching prospects Kyle Zimmer and Yornado Ventura. The Major League team is still intact and when Duffy and Paulino return, they will be a part of the starting rotation.

But what about Jeff Francoeur? Yes, he had a terrible 2012 and it might be a stretch if he crawls back to being league average next year. But even if Myers stayed with the Royals, it’s likely he wouldn’t be on the Opening Day roster. Despite what some think, the Royals needed front line starting pitching over a right fielder like Myers. And if worse comes to worst, there’s always David Lough or Jarrod Dyson, right? And by the time Francoeur leaves, there’s a chance Bubba Starling will take his place.

Sure, the Royals could have gone the free agent route and got a Anibal Sanchez, Shaun Marcum or Ryan Dempster. But would the Royals sign them for $9MM a year like they got Shields? And honestly, Shields is a better pitcher than Sanchez, Marcum or Dempster. If anything, the Royals might have been better off trying to sign Sanchez, Marcum and Dempster over Santana or Guthrie.

It’s true losing prospects like Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery and Leonard hurts, but remember, they’re prospects, not proven Major League commodities. Of course, Shields could blow out his elbow and Davis might be the second coming of Luke Hochevar. But baseball is a game of risk and the Royals aren’t going to win by playing it safe and relying solely on their prospects.

Remember all the bold moves the Detroit Tigers took last year? They made it to the World Series. Sure, it’s a long shot the Royals will be in the World Series next year, especially with the Tigers in the division. But the Royals have to make bold moves if they want to succeed.

And don’t forget this trade brings the Royals payroll up to $80MM. Love him or hate him, David Glass is spending money and Dayton Moore is making an effort to improve the team.

It won’t take long to see if this trade works out for the Royals. If it blows up, Moore will be gone and the team could be wandering in the baseball wilderness for several more years. But if it succeeds, it could be the start of a new era of winning baseball for the Kansas City Royals.

Each year, officials from the 30 Major League teams come together for the Winter Meetings to make deals via trades or free agent signings. Of course trades and free agent signings happen all year, but some important deals happen during the Winter Meetings. Some teams make a big splash, some teams just show up.

The Royals didn’t made a splash as of Wednesday night. They have two needs; starting pitching and a utility infielder. Starting pitching is more important to the Royals and there’s plenty of rumors about the starting pitchers the team has interest in via a trade or free agency.

The way it looks now, the Royals prefer to sign a starting pitcher via free agency. Zack Greinke is out of the question, but the Royals top target is Anibal Sanchez, who could be looking for a six-year deal at almost $100MM dollars. That’s way out of the Royals price range, but it’s more likely Sanchez will get a four-year deal and if the money is right, Sanchez might be a Royal. Sanchez isn’t an ace like Greinke, but he would bolster the Royals rotation.

Wednesday, the Royals made a two-year, $26MM offer to starter Ryan Dempster, but he’s looking for a three-year, $39MM deal and there are rumblings the Cubs, Brewers and Red Sox have interest in Dempster.

In other rumors, free agent starters the Royals are looking at are Shaun Marcum and Brandon McCarthy. Both starters had some health issues in the past, but could be intriguing choices if the price and years are right.

As for the trade route, there’s a few starters the Royals have interest in. The Wil Myers/John Lester trade rumors are cooling off, but the Royals still have interest in Rays starters James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. For a while, there was talk of a Myers/R.A. Dickey trade, but the Royals quickly dismissed it. Yes, Dickey won the Cy Young Award this year and he’s a 20 game winner, but he’s 38 and Myers is 22. If Dickey was younger, it might be a better trade. Astros starter Bud Norris is another pitcher the Royals are looking at, who will be free agent in 2016. And the Royals have interest in Rangers starter Derek Holland, who’s a free agent in 2017.

Whatever the Royals decide, they’re not in a hurry to find the “right” starting pitcher. It could be after the Winter Meetings before the Royals make a deal.

The Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners have some interest in designated hitter Billy Butler, but there’s nothing concrete. Besides Felix Hernandez, the Mariners don’t have a Major League ready pitcher the Royals are looking for. Baltimore has some good pitching prospects and young Major League starters, but the Royals want a more established starter to lead the rotation in 2013.

There’s even talk the Royals are willing to trade Chris Getz and the St. Louis Cardinals might be interested in Getz as a utility infielder. Hey, aren’t the Royals looking for a utility infielder? Oh, wait, the Royals consider Getz a starting infielder.

With the flux of the Winter Meetings, this article might be invalid by the time it’s posted. As I write this, Twitter is buzzing about a potential Myers/Shields trade. Some Royals fans say yes, some say no, and some say heck no. Whatever happens, the Royals are getting a starting pitcher. Who that will be and when it happens is hard to say.

The Royals need another front of the rotation starter, even after acquiring Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. With a $70MM “soft” salary cap (which many argue is too low), the Royals say they’re willing to trade top outfield prospect Wil Myers for starting pitching. Names such as Tampa Bay’s James Shields and Boston’s Jon Lester have come up, but so far they’re nothing more than rumors. But is trading a top offensive prospect for starting pitching a good idea in the first place?

If it’s for Shields or Lester, no. Yes, they are good pitchers and better than anyone in the Royals rotation, including Santana and Guthrie. But they’re not worth Wil Myers trade value.

Both Shields and Lester will be free agents in 2014. If Myers stays with the Royals, he’ll likely be a free agent until 2019. Then there’s money. Shields will make $9MM in 2013 and has a $12MM team option. Lester will make $11.6MM in 2013 and has a $13MM team option. Myers will make much less.

Shields pitched 227.2 innings in 33 starts, had a 3.52 ERA with a 3.84 strikeout to walk ratio. Lester pitched 205.1 innings in 33 starts, had a 4.82 ERA with a 2.44 strikeout to walk ratio. Shields is 30 and Lester is 28, but between the two, Shields appears the one most likely to improve. Both pitchers are good and would be an asset to the Royals rotation, but not for Myers.

Now if the Tampa Rays are willing to deal David Price or Jeremy Hellickson for Myers, that might be a good trade. Price is a Super Two player, which makes him arbitration eligible in 2013 and a free agent in 2016. Hellickson is arbitration eligible in 2014 and a free agent in 2017.  Price made $4.35MM in 2012 and Hellickson made $489,500 in 2012, so they’re very affordable and would be under club control for at least a few years.

But I don’t see a trade like that happening. Price was a 20 game winner, pitching 211.0 innings over 31 starts with a 2.16 ERA and a 3.47 strikeout to walk ratio. And he was the American League Cy Young Award winner for 2012. Hellickson was no slouch, pitching 177.0 innings over 31 starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 2.10 strikeout to walk ratio. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2011.

Of the two, the Rays might trade Hellickson for Myers straight up, but to get Price the Royals would probably have to throw in another high level prospect like a Jake Odorizzi or Jason Adam. And the Rays aren’t rebuilding, so there’s no good reason for them to give up starting pitching for prospects.

If the Royals are so bent on trading for a starting pitcher, maybe they should consider Chicago Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija. Jeff Samardzija? To be honest, I didn’t know much about him either. But Samardzija was the ace of the Cubs, pitching 174.2 innings in 28 starts with a 3.81 ERA and a 3.21 strikeout to walk ratio. Sure, being the ace of the 61-101 Cubs isn’t that impressive. But Samardzija made $2.64MM in 2012, is arbitration eligible in 2013 and a free agent in 2016.

And the best thing is the Royals won’t have to trade Myers to get Samardzija (unless they’re very stupid, which is possible). The Royals could give the Cubs someone like Mike Montgomery or Cheslor Cuthbert for Samardzija and jettison or trade Luke Hochevar to pay Samardzija’s salary. The Royals still have money left to get a free agent pitcher like a Shaun Marcum or Anibal Sanchez. And Myers can take Jeff Francoeur‘s place in right field in 2013. Sounds like a good deal to me.

Spring Training Report #1: Naturals reporting to Camp
Former Naturals Looking to Turn Heads this Spring

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

Naturals/Texas League Notes

Naturals in Other Camps: At least eight former Naturals players are also showing up in other big league spring training camps around major league baseball.   Right-hander Juan Abreu (2009) has reported to camp with the Houston Astros after making his major league debut last season.  He’ll be joined by infielder Angel Sanchez (2008), an Astros’ non-roster invitee.  Kila Ka’aihue is also in camp with the Oakland Athletics and is expected to compete for playing time at first base and designated hitter with Daric Barton and former Texas leaguer Chris Carter (Midland, 2009).  Ka’aihue is out of options, and must make the big league roster or be exposed to waivers prior to being sent to the minor leagues.  Former Naturals’ starter Dan Cortes (2008-09) is in camp after signing a big league deal with the Washington Nationals following his release from the Seattle Marinerrs.  Right-hander Jeff Fulchino, who spent an abbreviated two-game stint with the Naturals in the first week of their history, joins him in Nationals’ camp as a non-roster player.

A trio of former Naturals – left-hander Dusty Hughes (2008), first baseman Ernesto Mejia (2010), and outfielder Jordan Parraz (2009) – are also in big league camp, with the Atlanta Braves, as non-roster invitees.

‘Manny being Manny’ at Arvest???  Divisive big league slugger Manny Ramirez agreed to terms on a contract with the Oakland Athletics this week.  Manny will have to serve a 50-game suspension violating major league baseball’s substance abuse policy.  There is a provision that would allow Ramirez to play a ten game stint in the minor leagues before joining the Athletics roster for their 51st game – which would be a road contest May 30^th against the Minnesota Twins.  This would put him on track to possibly begin a minor league stint on or around May 20th.  It is too early to speculate on where he may appear, or what minor league teams he may be with, but the Midland Rockhounds, Oakland’s Double-A affiliate, will be at Arvest from May 23-25th.  Should he appear in Springdale he would be the biggest name to rehab at Arvest Ballpark since Kevin Millwood made a rehab start against the Naturals in August of 2008, while on a rehab assignment from the Texas Rangers.

Top 100 Prospects: Several former and future Naturals are listed on the Baseball America top 100 prospect list.  Former Natural Mike Montgomery is ranked 23^rd, while Bubba Starling, the fifth over all pick in the 2011 draft, is right behind Montgomery ranked 24^th. Starling is not likely to see time in Northwest Arkansas before 2014.  The Royals had five players overall make the list, as current Natural Wil Myers is ranked 28th, and Jake Odorizzi is ranked 68th, and Cheslor Cuthbert, a promising third baseman from Nicaragua who is expected to begin the 2012 season with Wilmington, is 84th on the list.  Former Diamond Hog Zack Cox, who spent last season in the Texas League with Springfield, was ranked 88^th.  The Royals are one of three teams to have three players make the Top 30 for 2012.  The Mariners and Diamondbacks also accomplished the feat.

Transaction Log: Former Naturals’ right hander Roman Colon returns to the Royals organization after spending the 2011 season in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization pitching for Triple-A Albuquerque.  In 27 appearances the 32-year old Colon posted a 2-1 record and a 4.85 ERA in 27 appearances.  Colon spent the 2010 season pitching in Korea, and has been invited to big league spring training this season, but if he wins a job coming out of camp, that’s likely to be in the bullpen with Triple-A Omaha…The Royals also signed right-hander Steve Kent to a minor league contract.  Kent is a 22-year old Australian right-hander who has spent the last two seasons in Class-A ball in the Atlanta Braves’ system.  He’ll join the cast of arms competing for spots with Kane County and Wilmington, but could advance to Double-A later in the season.  Kent’s career minor league record is 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA in 67 career games, including 30 starts.  He posted a 7.77 ERA in 48 2/3 innings last season for Class-A Rome (GA), where he missed time with injury.

Check nwanaturals.com for our Spring Training Report, where we’ll continue to follow Royals’ minor leaguers in spring training as well as cover other baseball information that pertains to the Naturals and the Texas League.

The Northwest Arkansas Naturals are the Double-A Texas League affiliate of the Kansas City Royals and play at state-of-the-art Arvest Ballpark, located in Springdale.  Visit our website, nwanaturals.com, for information on season tickets and ticket plans.

Eric Homser finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Royals fans probably felt he deserved to finish even higher.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

But perhaps they should count themselves lucky their young star didn’t come closer to winning the award.

Hosmer finished a distant third to Tampa Bay’s Jeremy Hellickson and the Angels’ Mark Trumbo. But Hosmer appears destined to win many more awards. And judging by the Royals’ track record with Rookie of the Year award winners, it’s for the best that he didn’t win this one.

In the Royals’ very first season, Lou Piniella took the award. There was certainly nothing wrong with Piniella’s career, except that not enough of it took place in KC. Piniella had five good seasons with the Royals – he hit .286 with 45 homers and 348 RBI’s during that stretch. But sadly Piniella departed just before he, and the Royals, had their best seasons.

The problem isn’t so much that they traded Piniella. It’s what they received in return.

I’m not old enough to remember the trade of Piniella for reliever Lindy McDaniel, but in hindsight it looks nothing short of senseless. Piniella was 30 at the time of the trade. McDaniel was 38.

McDaniel wasn’t awful, just old. He pitched in 78 games in two seasons in KC, amassing a 6-5 record with two saves. But then he was done. Piniella, meanwhile, played 11 seasons in New York, and had at least six really good years. In all, he hit 102 homers, drove in 766 runs, and finished with a .291 average.

The Royals hope Hosmer doesn’t wind up like the only first baseman in team history to win the Rookie of the Year honor.

Bob Hamelin took the award in a remarkable 1994 strike-shortened season. He belted 24 homers, and his other numbers were pretty impressive too. He batted a respectable .282, with a .388 OBP, .599 SLG, and .987 OPS. Had he been allowed to play a full season in 1994, it is estimated that Hamelin would have hit 32 home runs.

But Hamelin was already 26, battled weight problems and had a history of injuries before his rookie year. Whether due to injuries, poor eyesight, or general lack of ability, Hamelin couldn’t sustain that kind of success. He crashed hard the next season, hitting .168 with just 7 homers.

After another disastrous season in 1996, Hamelin was released just before spring training in 1997. Hamelin bounced back with Detroit that season, pulling it together to hit 18 homers and bat .270. But those two good seasons stand in stark contrast to the rest of his career. Hamelin hit more than a third of his career homers in that magical rookie year and never played more than 110 games in a season.

The third Royal to win the rookie award is definitely the best of the group. At just 22, Carlos Beltran exploded on the big league scene as part of a talented young KC lineup that included Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney and Joe Randa.

Beltran’s 22 homers, 108 RBI’s and .293 average only told half the story. Beltran tore up the base paths as a dangerous leadoff man and flashed his five-tools as a standout centerfielder.

Unfortunately, agent Scott Boras thought Beltran’s star would shine brighter in some other galaxy. In the middle of his sixth season, Beltran was dealt in a blockbuster trade that netted the Royals the marginal talents of Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood.

Beltran was one of baseball’s best for a decade. But in 2009, at just 32, injuries reduced Beltran to just a shadow of his former self. Royals fans look back with regret that one of their greatest players played on just one winning team while in KC.

The last Royal to win Rookie of the Year was Angel Berroa in 2003. Berroa was just one of several shortstops to break the team’s heart during the past decade. Berroa won the award with some impressive numbers for a shortstop – 17 homers and a .287 average. But even in his award-winning season, he struck out a lot and had a low OPS.

Things only got worse from that point. By age 26 the wheels had fallen completely off, and the Royals moved on to another in the string of disappointing shortstops.

So the Royals had two Rookies of the Year who maintained a significant level of success, but left Kansas City in the prime of their careers. And they had two others who dropped off dramatically after their freshman seasons.

Such a drop-off is not a rarity for Rookies of the Year, according to Jeff Zimmerman of Royals Review. He wrote back in late September that more than half of the winners of the award regressed in their second season:

• 12 of 20 saw their AVG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year
• 11 of 20 saw their OBP drop. Overall the average dropped 3 points the next year
• 13 of 20 saw their SLG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year

Note that Zimmerman didn’t specify if those statistics represent the last 20 AL award winners, or the last 10 winners in the NL and AL. But the trend would indicate, regardless, that many top rookies actually perform at a level they cannot sustain.

If Hosmer’s stock trends up instead of down, Royal fans won’t mind a bit that he missed out on the Rookie of the Year award.

After all, another 21 year-old once finished 3^rd in the rookie balloting, and things turned out pretty well for him. His name was George Brett.

Kimbrel, Hosmer, Hellickson Selected As Top Rookies From BBA
The Baseball Bloggers Alliance names their Willie Mays Award winners.