In the second edition of “Way Too Early 2012 Predictions,” it’s time to pick the Royals’ Pitcher of the Year.

Coming into this offseason, it was obvious that starting pitching needed to be the main focus. The Royals acquired Jonathan Sanchez in a trade with the Giants and signed Bruce Chen to a two year deal, but there hasn’t been a major upgrade over last season’s rotation just yet.

Essentially, the Royals swapped out Jeff Francis in favor of Jonathan Sanchez. While that is a definite improvement, it might not be the answer Royals fans wanted.

It’d be great if Jonathan Sanchez was an ace and a definite lock for pitcher of the year next year, but he’s not. He has a lot to prove before the Royals can say he is anywhere close to an ace, or even a number three starter for that matter.

Last year, Sanchez struggled going 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA. He battled injuries throughout the season, so a healthy Sanchez could look more like his 2010 season: 13-9, 3.07 ERA, 205 K’s. That type of performance would put him at the top of this list for sure, but I’d like to at least see him pitch healthy for 10 starts before handing him the award.

Right now, it looks like Luke Hochevar will once again take home my award for Pitcher of the Year. I gave it to him for the 2011 season and I am sticking with him for next year.

Greg Holland, Joakim Soria, Danny Duffy, and Aaron Crow got some serious consideration for this prediction, but I still have to go with Hochevar.

Call me crazy, but I still believe he can finally turn into that pitcher that everyone hoped he could be when the Royals drafted him 1^st overall in 2006.

He seemed to turn a corner last year when he “figured something out” with then-pitching coach Bob McClure. He had a stretch after the All-Star break where he looked like he should have been playing in said game.

After his red-hot stretch after last year, Hochevar had me thinking he could be our ace this year. His streak didn’t last too long, but he still finished the year much better than he started.

Right now, it looks like he will once again take the mound on Opening Day 2012. He will be the ace and he will be the Royals’ best pitcher next year.

But like I said, call me crazy.

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Nate Green

Bruce Chen won 12 games in 2010. He came back to win 12 again last season. Name the last Royal lefty to post back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins.

It looked for some time like Chen wouldn’t have the chance to add to that string of 12-win seasons. But last week Chen inked a two-year deal that will hold his place in the KC rotation.

Chen is what the Royals need at this moment. He’s not a fire-balling ace. He’s not a young phenom with limitless potential. Those are nice to have, and we would take them in a heartbeat.

But what Chen is fills a need in KC. You see, the Royals have phenoms. They have players with tons of potential. They even have starting pitchers with great ability. But they haven’t won anything yet. Not at the big league level.

Bruce Chen has shown over the last two seasons that he knows how to win games.

The other Royals last season? Not so much.

Kyle Davies showed for years that he knew how to lose games. Luke Hochevar showed last year that he knew how to let winnable games slip away. Felipe Paulino, for all his promise, didn’t show that he knew how to win games. And Danny Duffy showed he has no idea what’s going on.

The addition of Jonathan Sanchez was heralded as a significant upgrade in the Royals’ rotation. But it remains to be seen if Sanchez is not a year removed from his best work. A little too reminiscent of Jeff Francis to have the hope of a franchise placed on him.

I hope Sanchez is a difference maker in KC. I hope he’s a 20 game winner. But I feel safer in hoping that Chen can win 12 games again, milking the most out of his average physical ability. And by doing so, I hope he shows Hochevar and Paulino and Duffy how to get the most out of their considerable talents.

And if Chen can win 12 games in 2012 and in 2013, he’ll match which pitcher as the last Royals lefty to win 12 in four straight seasons?

That would be none other than Charlie Leibrandt, who won 60 games over a four-year span from 1985 to 1988, and picked up a World Series ring in the process.

Dayton Moore has done it – he has finally made a truly wise free-agent signing.

By signing Jeff Francis to a one-year, $2 million contract (that could pay another $2 million in incentives), Moore has given the Royals a better chance to win this year, which I think most Royals fans acknowledge is not a priority. But even moreso, Moore has brought in a temporary ace and a staff leader who can mentor a young pitching staff.

As a former highly-rated prospect himself – and one who has actually found a modicum of success on the Major League level – Francis should have a thing or two to teach these kids.

My only disappointment is that Moore didn’t sign him to a longer-term deal. But I can definitely understand Moore’s hesitation here; Francis has proven injury-prone, and his statistics are not all that inspiring.

But for a small price, what we have in Jeff Francis is someone who could be a part of this rotation for four, five, six years or longer – he could be the veteran anchor to what is bound to be a young team.

And, about those stats – they are a bit skewed by pitching his entire big league career in Denver. Despite that, Francis still has a winning record for his career as well as postseason experience.

What does this all mean for Dayton Moore? Well, it’s by far the smartest move he’s made as Royals GM. Yes, Moore has signed some impressive draft picks, including Mike Moustakas, Aaron Crow and Eric Hosmer, and he should receive credit for that. But really, wouldn’t most GMs have signed those same players in those exact spots?

Moore has been ridiculously bad at signing free agents. The bottom-of-the-barrel, all-time worst free agent signing of his career was, of course, the Jose Guillen signing. The acquisition of Jeff Francis is, I don’t know, a billion times smarter.

To say that the Francis signing is the smartest move of his career is a little sad, too, because in the realm of the baseball universe, the signing isn’t that big of a deal (other than the fact that, reportedly, Francis turned down offers from the Yankees and the Rockies to come to Kansas City). This is more of a statement about how bad Moore has been than how good the signing is.

If this is the best move of Moore’s GM career, what’s the second-best? I would argue it was the Scott Podsednik signing, although many others have criticized that particular move. What we got out of Podsednik in tangible assets was a half-season of above-average offensive performance and a moderate haul of mid- to low-level prospects in trading him. But the biggest value of that move was that it changed the culture of Kansas City’s offense: prior to 2010, the offense was built around Guillen’s power, but the home runs never followed. During 2010, we saw a bit of a shift toward a speed-focused offensive attack, including but not limited to Podsednik. I think that was significant.

And the Francis signing will mean even bigger changes for the better.

I’m not convinced that Dayton Moore is a terrible GM, and I’m certainly not convinced that he’s a good GM. But perhaps the Francis signing is the beginning of a turning tide in Kansas City baseball.

(For a more detailed breakdown of the Francis signing, including lots of sabremetrics for those so inclined, check out this article at FanGraphs, which calls the Francis signing the “best free agent signing of the winter.”)

Matt Kelsey is a Royals writer and the associate editor of I-70 Baseball. He can be reached at mattkelsey14@yahoo.com.