Tag Archive | "Jason Heyward"

Wild, Indeed…

The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Atlanta Braves in the first ever Wild Card game Friday and are headed to the NLDS to face the Washington Nationals. As significant at that news is, the outcome of the game was unfortunately not the big story of the night.

See if you can keep up: Jason Heyward reached over the top of the wall and hauled in what looked like a Yadier Molina home run; in one Braves at bat, a borderline pitch went David Ross’s way, the next pitch time was called during Kyle Lohse’s windup and Ross swung and missed at what was called no pitch, and the next pitch was hit over the wall for a two-run homer; Andrelton Simmons was called out when he ran inside the first baseline after bunting and Lohse’s throw hit him; with two on and one out in the eighth, Simmons popped into shallow left and Pete Kozma missed an easy catch, but because the ump made an at-best questionable invocation of the infield fly rule the batter was out—turning bases loaded, one out into second and third, two out; Braves fans responded to the play by littering the field with garbage, causing a 20-minute delay in the game; Braves manager Fredi Gonzales protested the game but because of the nature of the game the umps had to call Joe Torre during the delay to get a ruling on the protest; the Braves committed the fewest errors as a team in the regular season but committed three in this game; the Cardinals outscored the Braves 6-3, but the Braves outhit the Cardinals 12-6.

Did you get all that?

For whatever reason, the Cards managed to come out on top of the trash heap and will move on to start the NLDS at Busch Stadium Sunday against the Nationals. It certainly wasn’t a pretty win, even taking away all the absurdity, mental lapses, and misplays in the field. Lohse pitched well, but the bullpen allowed the Braves to get on base in each of the final three innings of the game. Mike Matheny also made a couple of questionable moves: bringing Lance Lynn in for just a third of an inning in a 4-2 game that was far from won; and pinch-running for David Freese with Adron Chambers in the 6th inning, then having Descalso sacrifice bunt Chambers to 3rd base. The Cardinals did enough to win without the questionable calls…but not by much.

Also lost in all the craziness was the end of Chipper Jones’ career. He did get a hit in his final at bat—which came with two outs in the 9th inning—but was responsible for the Braves’ first error, too. All in all, it was in no way a fitting end to a remarkable playing career. Although there is a hint of irony that his swan song was a loss to the Cardinals in the postseason, much like Ozzie Smith’s final game was a loss in Game 7 of the 1996 NLCS to the Atlanta Braves. Incidentally, the Braves have not beaten the Cardinals in four postseason meetings since.

Unfortunately, what the game will most be remembered for is the infield fly call and the madness that followed. Braves fans were irate, and maybe deservedly so. But their actions at Turner Field were reprehensible, dangerous, and ignorant. Ugliness like that happens infrequently, but when it does it really illustrates how ridiculous a herd of emotional human beings can be. When it comes down to it, all that play cost the Braves was an out and a base runner. The inning did not end, no runs came off the Braves’ side of the scoreboard, and no runs were added to the Cardinals’ side. The two runners that were already on base even advanced on the play. I’d hate to see what would happen in Atlanta if they were on the wrong side of a close play at the plate…kind of like the one where they beat the Pirates on a bad call to end that 19 inning game in 2011.

Regardless, the Cardinals survive to play another day. If the 2011 run was magical, then Friday night felt like it had black magic in play. The really scary part? The playoffs are just getting started…

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

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AL Central Preview: Royals vs. White Sox

In today’s age of advanced statistics, in-depth comparisons no longer need to rely simply on batting average, fielding percentage, slugging percentage, and on base percentage. In this breakdown, the Royals and the White Sox players will be analyzed using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to fangraphs.com.

WAR takes into count the myriad statistics and variables in baseball and compiles them into one simple stat: How many more victories is a player worth than an average replacement who can be found on waivers or at the Triple A level. This is a great statistic because you truly understand how good a player is compared to other guys at his respective position.

For a little perspective, here are the top 5 in WAR last year:

  1. Josh Hamilton – 8.0
  2. Joey Votto – 7.4
  3. Albert Pujols – 7.3
  4. Ryan Zimmerman – 7.2
  5. Adrian Beltre – 7.1

Here are the top 5 projected leaders for 2011:

  1. Albert Pujols – 8.4
  2. Jason Heyward – 7.9
  3. Evan Longoria – 7.4
  4. Chase Utley – 6.9
  5. Troy Tulowitzki – 6.9

Now, let’s examine how the Royals and White Sox stack up, according to WAR:

Starting Pitching

Royals Sox

Luke Hochevar: 1.7 Mark Buehrle: 3.8

Kyle Davies: 2.0 John Danks: 4.3

Vin Mazzaro: 0 Jake Peavy: 1.8

Sean O’Sullivan: -0.2 Gavin Floyd: 4.3

Jeff Francis: 1.9 Edwin Jackson: 3.8

The advantage in pitching clearly goes to the White Sox, even with the recent addition of Jeff Francis. Its rotation is dangerous and arguably the best in the division. The return of Jake Peavy to the Sox will be key on whether or not they can contend with the Tigers and Twins. If Peavy returns healthy and stays that way the entire season, don’t be surprised to see the White Sox go deep into the playoffs.

Catcher

Royals Sox

Jason Kendall: 6.2 A.J. Pierzynski: 1.8

The advantage goes to Kendall, but I can’t imagine him registering a 6.2 in 2011. They both possess an intangible leadership factor, but it’s no secret they’re not getting any younger. Kendall has two years on Pierzynski in terms of age, but this could be their last year behind the plate.

First Base

Royals Sox

Kila Ka’aihue: .3 Paul Konerko: 4.2

The advantage at first base goes to Konerko and the Sox. It should be mentioned both players are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of their careers. Ka’aihue could be an emerging star in this game, yet Konerko appears to be a fading one. That being said, Konerko will more than likely have a better year than Ka’aihue.

Second Base

Royals Sox

Chris Getz: -.1 Gordon Beckham: .9

The advantage goes to Beckham and the Sox – he’s a clear cut winner in this instance. I expect his WAR to be above 3 this year, and only continue to rise in subsequent years.

Third Base

Royals Sox

Mike Aviles: 1.5 Brent Morel: 0

Going into the season, it appears as though Aviles has the advantage in this category. Morel is still very young, so his ceiling is much higher than Aviles’. I’ll call this one a wash given what we’ve seen from Morel last year when he was called up and what the Royals can expect from Aviles.

Short Stop

Royals Sox

Alcides Escobar: .6 Alexei Ramirez: 3.8

The advantage goes to Ramirez and the Sox. Escobar isn’t likely to beat out Ramirez this year in WAR, but does provide the Royals with a solid short stop for years to come. Look for Escobar’s WAR to be somewhere near Ramirez’s in about two years.

Left Field

Royals Sox

Alex Gordon: -.2 Juan Pierre: 2.2

Going into the 2011 season, Pierre and the Sox have an advantage in left field. However, as the season progresses, I would expect this to be a wash. Pierre is getting older and slowing down a bit, which hinders his offensive production. Additionally, one would reasonably expect Gordon to only grow from his current -.2 status.

Center Field

Royals Sox

Melky Cabrera: 1.2 Alex Rios: 3.7

Lorenzo Cain: 0

The advantage in Center Field goes to Rios and the Sox. Melky Cabrera had an abysmal season last year with the Atlanta Braves, so there’s no reason to believe he will improve with the Royals. In addition, Lorenzo Cain will probably push Cabrera for his job later in the season, which is why he is mentioned. Rios is a solid player for the Sox, and will probably match his production from last year.

Right Field

Royals Sox

Jeff Francoeur: .5 Carlos Quentin: 0

The advantage barely goes to Francoeur for the right field position. Quentin is highly overpaid and has yet to show Sox fans anything for the salary he is receiving. If Francoeur is going to resurrect his career and prove his hyped prospect status, he’ll have to do so by posting a higher .5 WAR in 2011.

Designated Hitter

Royals Sox

Billy Butler: 3.4 Adam Dunn: 3.9

Save the most compelling argument for last. Both of these players will be splitting time at first base when their respective teams need them. For the sake of this article, they are designated hitters. Billy Butler is the best hitter the Royals have. The same could be said for Dunn and the Sox. I’m going to give the advantage to Butler for the 2011 season because I believe his upside is stronger than Dunn’s. Dunn strikes out way too often still, and Butler can hit for average. It’s my opinion that getting on base, driving in runners when they’re in scoring position, and hitting for average always outweighs the occasional home run when you’re striking out every 2.8 at bats like Dunn. Dunn is a boom or bust type of player and Butler provides a sense of consistency. Expect Dunn’s WAR to reach low 3’s, and Butler’s to reach high 3’s. Both will be valuable to their teams in 2011, but since Butler is the best hitting talent on the Royals, he’ll get the nod in this category.

Summary

The overall advantage goes to the White Sox. Its pitching will keep them in contention for the division in 2011. While the hitting and defense don’t necessarily match those of the American League East division, the White Sox could be primed for a division title and a deep playoff run. Royals fans should expect another 100-loss season, unless its minor league talent matures earlier than expected.

Have comments? Feel free to leave them below.

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Arizona Fall League Preview

Each fall, while most fans are busy following the MLB Playoffs along with college football and basketball, one of the most underrated sporting events takes place. Starting on Tuesday, October 12th, the Arizona Fall League will kick off their 19th season.

For those not familiar with the Arizona Fall League (AFL), it is a league designed to improve, refine, and develop young Minor League players. The 210 players that participate are many of the top prospects in baseball, and they will get their chance to perform in front of hundreds of scouts, coaches, and executives.

Each Major League club is required to send seven Minor Leaguers to fill six 35-man teams. Most of the players are from the Triple-A and Double-A levels, but all teams are allowed to send two players from below Double-A.

It is a league built to showcase the top young talent from around the world. This year, 30 former first-round picks are included in the rosters and two of 2010′s top five picks will play. Current MLB stars such as David Wright, Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Braun all spent time in the AFL and went on to have extremely successful careers in the bigs.

Last fall, players like Ike Davis, Jason Heyward, Chris Heisey, Mike Leake, Buster Posey, Mike Stanton, Drew Storen, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Tabata took part in the one-month-long season. Now, only a year later, those are household names.

This year, the St. Louis Cardinals representatives will make up part of the Surprise Rafters along with Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, and Detroit Tigers prospects. Let’s take a look at what exactly each of the seven Cardinals will bring to the table for the Rafters.

Brian Broderick, Starting Pitcher
Brian was one of the best pitchers in the system in 2010, and will look to keep that going in the next several weeks. He is a very efficient pitcher that has great control, but lacks over-powering stuff. What I want to see Broderick do is work on his secondary pitches. 90% of Minor League pitchers have a decent fastball, but Broderick will have to use his off-speed pitches next year and beyond. His fastball will not fool hitters at a higher level. Having great control is irreplaceable, but for Broderick to make it as a big leaguer, he must improve his repertoire.
2010 stats: 14-7, 3.66 ERA, 92 SO, 150 innings in A+/AA

Blake King, Relief Pitcher
Blake King is literally the opposite of Broderick in every way imaginable. King spent the entire 2010 season in Double-A Springfield where he led the team in strikeouts per nine innings with a mark of 11.1. And while Broderick is all about control, King doesn’t even bother with it. Not only did Blake lead the team in strikeouts, he also led the team in walks per nine innings with 6.4. The 23-year-old fire baller absolutely must work on his control, because it appears non-existent. I advise King to ask Francisco Samuel; just throwing the ball hard will not get you where you want to go.
2010 stats: 4-3, 2.91 ERA, 84 SO, 68 IP in AA

Jordan Swagerty, Pitcher
I said it a couple months ago, and I will say it again. I honestly think Swagerty will have a better career than former ASU teammate and Cardinals first-round draft pick Seth Blair. I took a lot of heat for it, but I am very high on Swagerty. He resembles Jess Todd, but could develop into a starter. He has three great pitches and exceptional command of the strike zone. His best pitch is his 12-6 curve ball that is a true 70-75 on the 20-80 scouting scale. I project the organization to try him out as a starter, but due to his size and pitching style, I believe his future lies in the bullpen. Look for him to move up the ranks very quickly.
2010 stats: 14 saves, 2.19 ERA, 48 SO, 37 IP in NCAA

Tony Cruz, Catcher
Here is one of the legit underrated catching prospects in the Cardinals system. The 23-year-old spent most of his 2010 in Palm Beach and Springfield, but did play a few games in AAA as well. He comes across as a very raw hitter to me. He has plenty of potential there, but it needs refined. Fortunately for him, that is what the AFL is all about. The big thing he needs to work on is plate discipline. He’s known to swing at a lot of bad pitches, but still managed to hit above.280 in A and AA with a .352 OBP. That’s very promising. If he can tweek a very things at the plate, I believe Cruz can be a great hitter.
2010 stats: .282 BA, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 344 AB in A+/AA/AAA

Zack Cox, Third Base
Here’s what Cardinal Nation is most interested about. How will the first-round draft pick fair against top-talent pitchers? We saw him perform very well down in the Gulf Coast League, but this is an entirely different situation for him. Instead of going up against rookie pitchers, he’ll be hitting off of some of the best Minor League pitchers in the game. Cox was the best hitter in the 2010 draft not named Bryce Harper, but still has some things to work on. Defensively, there are some concerns. If the Cardinals plan on keeping him at third base, Zack needs to work on his arm strength and overall fielding ability. Other than that, power is a big thing to keep an eye on. All of the scouts say that he has 20+ home run potential, but Cox barely managed that in his two-year collegiate career.
2010 stats: .429 BA, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 238 AB in NCAA

Pete Kozma, Shortstop
While Cox will have most Cardinal fans on him, I’ll be watching this guy. I’ve had a man-crush on Kozma ever since he was drafted, and even though some have given up on him, I still believe he’s one of the top prospects in the organization. If he can adjust his hitting approach, and eliminate some of those strikeouts, Kozma may become St. Louis’ starting shortstop sometime in the future. I think there is a ton of potential in him, and the AFL seems like a perfect place for him to show that. Don’t give up on the former first-rounder just yet, because I think he has something very rare.
2010 stats: .243 BA, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 503 AB in AA

Adron Chambers, Outfield
Here’s one of the fastest players in the Minor Leagues, and easily the fastest in the Cardinals system. For some reason, neither Springfield or Memphis decided to take advantage of that as much as Palm Beach did in 2009, but Chambers has 40+ steal potential. He has been compared by many to Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings, and if you keep up with prospects outside of the Cardinals organization, you realize that’s a comparison that says a lot about Chambers. What I noticed from Adron in 2010 is his newly found ability to hit the home run. In his MiLB career, he never hit more than three home runs in a season. However, this year he managed six home runs in Springfield and Memphis.
2010 stats: .283 BA, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 321 AB in AA/AAA

Justin Hulsey covers the Cardinals for i70baseball and his blog, Rising Redbirds, that is also dedicated to Cardinals baseball and their minor league system. You may follow him on Twitter @JayHulsey by clicking here.

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