The kings of irrelevant success are at it early in 2012. After putting together winning Septembers in three of the last four seasons, your 2012 Kansas City Royals have started the month of August at 10-6, perhaps starting their annual trek up the standings one month ahead of time. Still trailing their division leader by 13 games, this recent hot streak means little even if it’s continued at its current pace for the next 45 days, so what does matter as we head down the stretch? Here are five numbers that I think are far more important than how many games the Royals win in the next 6 weeks.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

1. Johnny Giavotella’s fielding percentage. Technically it may actually be more important what his defense looks like to Ned Yost. We all know the Royals aren’t the most interested team in advanced defensive metrics, so it definitely doesn’t matter what his UZR looks like. Regardless, second base is the one place the Royals could most significantly improve their offense in 2013(besides right field, and Jeff Francoeur is going nowhere), assuming Giavotella can prove to management that his glove will play.
2. Jeremy Guthrie’s contract. Guthrie has clearly earned himself a two year deal from Dayton Moore at the minimum. There is nothing more that Moore loves than featuring a player that makes him look smart, and getting anything at all for Jonathan Sanchez looks brilliant. If it’s a two year deal for $14 million, I’m good with it…and it may signal the end of the Luke Hochevar era. If it’s a three year deal for $30 million and Guthrie is starting on Opening Day next year, I’ll be furious.
3. Billy Butler’s home run total. Should this matter? Not really,  but it’s been a sore spot for fans for far too long and could be the only thing to drive fans to the park the couple of weeks of the season. Butler needs twelve home runs over his last 44 games to break the most embarrassing franchise record in baseball. He hit 11 in 44 games earlier in the year, so it’s certainly possible.
4. Wil Myers’ games played. The only thing that would make any sense at all would be if the Royals bring Myers up in September and let him play nearly every day. If they don’t I’m really going to have some questions about their plans for him. The only reasonable explanation to me would be that they plan on trading him this winter and don’t want him exposed at the big league level.
5. Alex Gordon’s batting average. I am shocked that Ned Yost chose to mess with Gordon’s place in the order yet again. Let me rephrase that, I would be shocked if a competent manager chose to jerk a player around as much as Yost has with Gordon. Gordon is clearly most comfortable in the lead off role. Yost is clearly uncomfortable with someone batting lead off with that high of an on base percentage.

Will David Freese build off his postseason success?

Had things gone slightly differently last season, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.

Had the world champion St. Louis Cardinals not clawed back from 10½ games behind in the wild-card race with 31 games to play — or 8½ games back with 21 to play, or three back with five to play — to sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season, David Freese wouldn’t even be a topic of discussion as fantasy owners prep for draft day.

David Freese earned MVP honors in both the NLCS and World Series, but is that enough for fantasy owners to make him a top option at a weak third base position?

Entering 2011, Freese barely cracked the ESPN top-20 rankings at third base, and he did little during the regular season to boost his stock, finishing outside the top 250 on the ESPN Player Rater and ranking just 22nd among third basemen by hitting .297 with 10 dingers and 55 RBIs in 333 at-bats.

Oh, what a difference a few extra weeks can make. Freese looked like a different player over the course of the Cardinals’ 18-game postseason run, batting .397 with five home runs and a playoff-record 21 RBIs and earning MVP honors in both the NLCS and World Series. Not only that, but his game-tying, two-run triple in the bottom of the ninth inning (with two outs and two strikes, no less) and his game-winning, walk-off homer in the bottom of the 11th in Game 6 to force a Game 7 will go down as two of the biggest postseason hits of all time, which could inflate Freese’s draft day price tag by themselves.

The first problem with gleaning too much from Freese’s postseason outburst is obviously the small sample size. An 18-game hot streak in June or July, no matter how impressive, would go largely unnoticed in the grand scheme of a 162-game season, so we shouldn’t put extra stock into a hot streak that happens in October. One can argue that a hot streak late in the season is more telling than one in the middle of the year, as I suppose it’s more likely to be a sign of growth, but there isn’t precedence for players showing new skills in October and having them carry over into the following season. In 2008, for example, B.J. Upton hit just nine home runs in 531 regular-season at-bats and then went on to hit seven homers in 66 at-bats in the postseason, causing many to predict that we’d see a power surge in 2009. Upton did eventually cash in on some of his untapped power potential, but it didn’t happen in 2009, when he hit just 11 dingers in 560 at-bats.

So if we remove last year’s postseason from the equation and take a step back to get a big-picture, helicopter view, what do we see? Despite turning 29 years old in late April, Freese has just 604 big league at-bats under his belt over three seasons. And that leads us into the major concern with Freese: his ability to stay healthy. The Cardinals third baseman missed more than half of the 2010 season with an ankle injury, and a left hand injury sidelined him for 51 games last year, not to mention a concussion that forced him to miss time in August. We currently have him projected for 470 at-bats — a plateau he could very well reach — but if we’re simply going off his big league track record, expecting even that many may be optimistic.

Injuries aren’t the only problem when evaluating Freese. Despite the .794 slugging percentage in the playoffs last year, there are questions about how much power potential he really possesses. While Freese hit 26 home runs at Triple-A in 2008, he hasn’t hit more than 13 homers in a season since and has just 15 dingers in 604 big league at-bats. Yes, part of that is attributed to his inability to stay healthy, but the metrics don’t say there’s a ton of power upside here. Last year’s fly ball rate was just 23.1 percent — down from 29.1 percent in 2010 — and his 16.7 percent HR/FB rate could regress in 2012, which obviously doesn’t bode well for a future power spike.

That said, we shouldn’t completely rule out the possibility for some future power growth, either. At nearly 29 years old, Freese is in his hitting prime, and it’s fair to assume that his power numbers last year were at least somewhat negatively affected by his hand injury. He wouldn’t be the first player to have some of his power sapped by a hand or wrist injury, after all.

As mentioned, Freese hit 26 homers in 131 Triple-A games in 2008, so it’s not like he’s never shown the ability to hit for power. And while his isolated power (which measures a player’s raw power in terms of extra-base hits) last year was just .131, he posted a .238 ISO in 664 Triple-A at-bats between 2008 and 2009. That’s not to say his minor league power will ever fully translate, but let’s face it, he probably hasn’t even been in the big leagues long enough for us to make that determination considering we’ve basically seen only one full season’s worth of playing time from Freese. Heck, it took former top prospect Alex Gordon nearly 1,500 big league at-bats before he finally put things together last season, and Freese wasn’t even half the prospect Gordon was. A full season of at-bats — still far from guaranteed, obviously — could result in a level of power production we haven’t yet seen from him at the big league level.

If all else fails, there’s one thing Freese has already proved he can do, and that’s hit. Despite a less-than-ideal contact rate (77 percent) in his big league career, he boasts a .298 batting average in 604 career at-bats, he improved his strikeout rate last year, and had he qualified, his 24.6 percent line-drive rate would’ve ranked fifth in the National League. He was also a career .307 hitter with a .384 OBP in the minors. Perhaps his batting average last year was aided by his .356 batting average on balls in play, but he’s been a high BABIP guy his entire professional career, so that’s not a huge concern. Projecting Freese to settle in as a .280-.300 hitter seems like a safe bet.

However unlikely it may be, the absolute best-case scenario with Freese in 2012 is that he stays healthy all year, shows growth in the power department and continues to hit for average. Should all of that happen, the result could be something close to a .300 average with 20-25 homers and 90-100 RBIs. Those numbers would mirror the season fantasy owners just got from Aramis Ramirez, who hit .306-26-93 last year and was a top-five fantasy third baseman. The odds are that Freese will fall well short of those numbers (particularly the home run total), whether because of injury or simply failing to produce, so don’t draft him with that kind of production in mind. Still, it’s reasonable to think there could be some untapped potential in Freese’s bat, with the upside being a top-10 fantasy third baseman, and potentially more given the lack of many high-end options at the position.

Based on current ADP data at Mock Draft Central, Freese is being drafted 162nd overall and 11th at third base. That’s several spots higher than our ESPN rankings, which rank him 16th at the position. (Note: ESPN live draft data will be available in early March.) This means that, in a standard 10-team league, Freese can generally be drafted in the 17th round or later. For the injury risk involved, that’s not a bad spot. If you’re going to draft Freese, it’s best to plan for some time on the disabled list and not expect more than the 10-15 home run power he’s displayed thus far. That way you won’t be disappointed if the injury bug bites again or he fails to make strides in the power department, and you still have some potential upside built into his draft slot if everything goes right.

David Freese is the subject of the April 2012 Computer Desktop Calendar from D-Two.net.  Get yours here.

This week I was going to write about the four lefty relievers who are vying for the two left-handed reliever spots in the Kansas City Royals bullpen, but catcher Salvador Perez had to go and injure his knee Tuesday. Trust me, I’d rather write about the lefty situation in the bullpen, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t write about this disappointing news.

Perez tore the meniscus of his left knee while warming up pitcher Jonathan Sanchez before Tuesday’s game against the Cincinnati Reds. Perez played one inning, but left the game, limping off the field. A MRI revealed the tear and Perez is going to need surgery to repair his knee. The surgery date hasn’t been set and the extent of the damage won’t be known until the doctors perform the operation. Perez’s timetable to return is uncertain, but many believe it will be around 6-8 weeks.

With catcher Manny Pina suffering a knee injury a three weeks ago and third baseman Mike Moustakas getting hit on the right knee by a pitch this past Monday, news of Perez requiring surgery on his knee isn’t what the Royals or their fans want to hear.

While the news is bad for a fan base who are used to disappointment, it could have been worse. If it takes around eight weeks to recover, Perez could return by mid-May. If it was a season-ending injury, it would be devastating.

But this is still bad news. If Perez comes back by mid-May, the Royals would have already played 40 or so games, which is about one quarter of the regular season. Losing a player like Perez, who the Royals see as one of their cornerstone young players, will put a strain on the rest of the team.

In recent years, the Royals usually had a losing record in April and May. If they stumble out of the gate this April and Detroit Tigers or another American League Central team has a hot streak, it could put the Royals in a hole they might not be able to get out of. Oh yeah, the Royals play the Tigers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers 15 times while Perez is likely on the shelf. Yikes.

But all is not lost. Barring any serious injuries, the lineup and pitching staff are still intact and Brayan Pena will likely be the starting catcher. Last year, Pena did a serviceable job as the Royals backup catcher behind veteran Matt Treanor. And Manny Pina should be back around mid-April and may join the Royals. In the meantime, either Max Ramirez or Cody Clark could be added to the 40-man roster, or the Royals may sign or deal for a catcher outside the organization for catching depth.

The 27 year-old Ramirez is a good offensive catcher and he’s had a good spring so far. He’s also has 45 games of Major League experience with the Texas Rangers and as an AAA catcher since 2008. Ramirez could be a competent backup catcher if the Royals don’t sign or trade for a catcher outside the organization or decide to move Pina to the big league roster when he returns.

The 30 year-old Clark has a lot of AAA catching experience, serving as a backup catcher in the Royals organization since 2007. However, Clark has no Major League experience and it’s likely he’ll be catching in AAA Omaha.

And the remaining free agent catchers on the market are the 36 year-old Ramon Castro and 40 year-old future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez. Castro caught 21 games for the Chicago White Sox last year and I-Rod caught 37 games for the Washington Nationals in 2011. Both have considerable Major League experience, with Castro at 13 years and Rodriguez with 21 years. But it’s doubtful either player would sign with the Royals, since Perez should return by mid-May and Pina could join the Royals sometime in April.

Perez’s injury is a setback for the Royals, who really need everything to go right for a chance to win the AL Central. It’s an old cliche, but the rest of the players will have to step up and contribute to minimize the damage of losing a player like Salvador Perez for a quarter of the season. Yes, this is bad news for the Royals, but they have to move forward and wait for Perez to return.

Last week we took a look at 23 year-old lefty Danny Duffy, and his prospects for a breakout season in 2012. The article was filled with optimism and antidotes that suggested Duffy may be ready to burst onto the scene for the Kansas City Royals. After his first outing in Spring Training, I was tempted to expand on those thoughts and the meaning of such an impressive start until I read this Rany Jazayerli piece. I think it’s fair to say that most of us are now excited by Duffy’s future, and the future is 2012. That did set me on a different path though, wondering if there were any others on the Royals staff poised for a breakout year. If you read this, then you probably know who I’m referring to; Cool Hand Luke.

For a guy with a career ERA north of 5 Luke Hochevar has a career highlight reel that would make just about any 5th year player proud:

• May 14, 2008 In just his 6th career start, Hochevar throws 6 shutout innings, striking out 5 and allowing just 4 hits.
• June 12, 2009 Hochevar holds the Cincinnati Reds to just 3 hits and 1 run in first career complete game. More impressive, he completes the feat in just 80 pitches.
• July 25, 2009 Hochevar strikes out 13 and walks 0 in 7 innings of work against the powerful Texas Rangers.
• September 18, 2009 Hochevar throws his first shutout against the Chicago White Sox. He strikes out 5 and allows only 4 base runners in the game.
• April 7, 2010 In 7 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers Hochevar allows 5 hits, 1 BB, and zero runs.
• May 19., 2011 Facing the eventual American League Champions Hochevar nearly goes the distance. In the end he delivers 8 2/3 inning of 1-run baseball on a night when the Royals win 2-1.
• September 3, 2011 Hochevar ended 2011 on a hot streak, but none of his performances down the stretch were better than this one against the Indians; 8 innings, 8 Ks, 1 BB and no runs.

What’s most astonishing to me, is that there are no trends represented in the data above. It’s not like he dominates early in the year and then wears down. It also isn’t a case where Hochevar just needs a few months to warm up this year. He has, over the course of 4 years, spread in completely random order a very impressive compilation of starts. Of course, the rest of the time he’s been pretty terrible. What does this mean? If anyone had the answer to that it would probably be fixed by now but at 28 years old there is still reason to believe that Hochevar could put it all together for a very dominant 2012.

• I noticed early in the season that Alcides Escobar was on pace to set a new low in win probability added (WPA) for not just the Royals but all of baseball history since 1950 (as far back as WPA has been figured by Baseball Reference). He had a hot streak out of nowhere in June that saved him from that record. The hot streak also lead to a lot of talk about Escobar having figured things out at the plate, and that narrative seemed to carry through the rest of the season. But Escobar actually turned right back into a pumpkin after June. His -4.8 WPA is second worst in Royals history, and the fifth worst in the last 62 MLB seasons:

• The outfield trio of Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur was a major highlight through the year. This was only the third year in team history that the three most used outfielders achieved 2.0 rWAR or more. The combined rWAR of 11.8 is third best by a Royals OF trio, only behind 1999 and 2000:

2011 was just the fourth team with an above average OPS+ and subpar ERA+. It also happened in ’72, ’79 and ’90, and the 2011 squad had a higher OPS+ than any of those teams, making them something of an outlier:

During the offseason we have been taking a look at the past, giving readers a timeline of St. Louis baseball throughout history. Last time we learned about “Cha-Cha” Cepeda and the El Birdos, Gibson’s incredible pitching which led to consecutive pennants in 1967 and 1968, before Gussie Busch demoralized the team in 1969 and caused them to stumble. Would their volatile owner hold them back?

Moral was low, emotions were high, and the Cardinals that were so good two years in a row had been cut down to fourth place in 1969. Red Schoendienst was trying to hold the team together, but then the team lost their voice. After twenty-four years in the Cardinals’ broadcast booth, Harry Caray was fired and bounced to the Oakland A’s, Chicago White Sox, and finally Chicago Cubs, where he stayed until his death in 1998. Fortunately for Cardinal fans, Jack Buck stepped in to become the voice of the franchise, and no one can argue that this was a poor choice in broadcasters!

1970 brought newcomer Dick Allen, who came as part of the infamous Curt Flood trade with the Philadelphia Phillies. Players shifted around the diamond to accommodate the slugging first baseman, with Joe Torre moving from first to catcher and replacing Tim McCarver, who had been sent to Philadelphia in the same trade. He and Torre were really the only players who could be considered sluggers on the team, as they hit 55 of the 113 team home runs on the year.

Thank goodness for Bob Gibson, as he was literally the only pitcher on the staff with a winning percentage over .500, checking in at .767 with a 23-7 record and 3.12 ERA. The team as a whole could not get it together, and sat twelve and a half games back on July 29. August, however, brought an inexplicable hot streak, as the team went 19-11 and suddenly sat just five and a half back on the morning of September 1! Stranger things had happened before…

…but not this time. Dick Allen tore a hamstring sliding into second base, and the slide extended to the team, as they finished September/October at 12-17, which left them 76-86, thirteen games back of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the NL East division crown.

Joe Torre

1971’s high points must include Joe Torre and Steve Carlton at the top of the list. Torre captured the MVP award, hitting a torrid .363/.421/.555 while making another jump in field positioning, this time to third base. Carlton showed another glimpse of what was to come, going 20-9 with a 3.56 ERA, all while picking up his third All-Star selection in his age 27 season.

The Cardinals as a whole were a contender, although the 90-72 record looks almost falsified on paper when looking at the numbers. There were no real sluggers on the team outside of Torre, who slammed 24. They were small ball players who slapped out singles and relied on stringing them together to get players home. Lou Brock swiped 64 bases, but the next highest total on the team was right fielder Jose Cardenal, who nabbed a mere 12. To be perfectly honest, this team does not look like one that should have finished second in the division, but stranger things have happened.

A fun tidbit? 1971 was the year that the team switched from button up uniforms to the t-shirt style tops that they would use until 1992.

Sparks flew in the offseason when contract negotiations with Steve Carlton became ugly. There was a $10,000 gap between Gussie Busch’s offer and Carlton’s demands, and Busch, citing a government-mandate that people try to cost-control wages, informed his star pitcher that he was being “unpatriotic.” Busch turned to general manager Bing Devine to trade Carlton away, and Devine, knowing it was trade the man or collect unemployment himself, sent Carlton to Philadelphia for fellow pitcher Rick Wise. A second casualty to the rotation came when Gussie Busch looked at big lefthander Jerry Reuss and demanded that he cut off his mustache. Reuss refused. See ya later. Reuss was sent off to Houston for pitcher Scipio Spinks. Spinks could have been something, but after hurting himself sliding across the plate his star faded quickly.

Because of that, the Cardinals took a rather large dip in 1972. While Bob Gibson would have perhaps his last great season (a 19-11 record with a 2.46 ERA), the pitcher brought in to replace Carlton – Wise – would go 16-16, and fellow youngster Reggie Cleveland went 14-15. Hard to replace a twenty game winner with guys floating around the .500 mark. But Busch was not about to let a young gun tell him what to do, so he let a Hall of Famer go over $10,000.

The lineup in 1972 was all or nothing. Half of the starting eight were hitting roughly .300 or better, and the other half were kind of floundering, with light hitting shortstop Dal Maxvill hitting an anemic .221/.299/.261. Want to know how to have a lower slugging percentage than on-base percentage? Ask Maxvill – he did it every single year of his fourteen year career. Singles please!

After perhaps overperforming in 1971, the team dipped back down to fourth in the NL East in 1972, rounding out with a 75-81 record.

1973 was a ridiculous roller coaster of a year for the team. After a beyond abysmal 3-15 record in April, the team found themselves already eleven and a half games back by May 15! They then turned on the jets, going 53-33 over the course of the next three months. By August 7, the Cardinals were 5 games up on the Amazin’ Mets. Of course, they then dropped eight straight games and tumbled down to second. The Mets were amazing for a reason. They hung around the .500 mark most of the year, then turned on the jets in the final month of the season, going 20-8 and taking the NL East crown by a mere one and a half games over the Cardinals.

What happened? The team’s pitching staff could go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league and come out victorious, but then their heart and soul – Bob Gibson – went down with torn cartilage in his knee, and the team folded, losing 29 of their last 47 games. An 81-81 record felt like a slap in the face to a team that had battled back from such a terrible start. They lost one run game after one run game, never having the hitter in place to knock in all the baserunners. It was frustrating to say the least.

1974 was a year for some of the younger players on the team to really get their feet wet. 24 year old pitchers Bob Forsch and Al Hrabosky were rising to the surface. Catcher Ted Simmons was only 24, but he was already going into his seventh season (fifth full season) by this time, and had already established himself as perennial .300 hitter with a decent arm behind the plate. Two more players – Bake McBride and Reggie Smith – joined the team to add both pop in the lineup and speed on the bases.

Lou Brock

Speed was one thing this team had plenty of. Lou Brock, at age 35, went absolutely crazy on the basepaths, burning up the bases like they were going to evaporate. His 118 stolen bases stood as a record until 1982, when Rickey Henderson surpassed him. McBride had 30 thefts of his own, but the team finally had a little bit of power too. Smith and Simmons both turned in 20+ home run seasons, and RBI totals were climbing out of the 50’s into a more reasonable range. The pitchers finally felt like they could give up more than one or two runs and still have a chance to win.

The team battled back and forth with the Pittsburgh Pirates all season long for the division crown. Willie Stargell led a team that could beat you eight different ways, and found ways to win late in the game constantly. It went down to the final series of the season, with the Cardinals up in Montreal facing the Expos. A freak pop-up that no one called cost the team a game. Pittsburgh lost their last game of the season, and if the Cardinals won, it would push them into a tie, and send them to Pittsburgh for a one game playoff. Unfortunately, the team was playing in 36 degree weather with sleet coming down. Gibson tried to grit out a win, but an eighth inning pitch to Expo Mike Jorgensen found the bleachers, and the Cardinals in turn found their couches to watch the playoffs on TV.

Mediocrity is maddening, but losing on the last day of the season is a wound that does not heal overnight.

Angela Weinhold covers the Cardinals for i70baseball.com and writes at Cardinal Diamond Diaries. You may follow her on Twitter here or follow Cardinal Diamond Diaries here.

St Louis will play its last series of the 2010 season this weekend against the Colorado Rockies. Both teams were eliminated from playoff contention Tuesday night.

For both teams, their seasons are similar. Early on it looked like Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez was a lock for the Cy Young, and would make a serious run at 30 victories, especially after opening the season 15-1. He’s 4-7 since. Carlos Gonzalez has been hyped as a potential MVP Candidate, and made a run at the Triple Crown, despite some serious difference in his home and road productivity (.386/.431/.749 home; .293/.327/.459 road). Troy Tulowitzki has had a memorable September (15 HR, 40 RBI). And the Rockies put together another late season surge, winning 13 of 15 to start September and climb within a game of the NL West lead.

St Louis? They have a Cy Young Candidate too in Adam Wainwright and perennial MVP candidate in Albert Pujols. The club got a searingly hot July from Jon Jay,and had one final hot streak in August, when they a swept Cincinnati to take over first place.

Just when both teams seemed ready to pull away and take the division, they met their Waterloos on the road. St Louis’ infamous 2-8 mid-August road trip through Pittsburgh, Washington, and Houston, right after that series sweep, doomed them. Colorado dropped 4 straight on the road in mid-September following the 13-2 stretch, including a devastating sweep in Arizona, then lost 2 of 3 at home last weekend to the Giants.

With nothing left to play for, the teams are making plans for next year. St Louis has already shut down Jamie Garcia for the season. Wainwright’s season is now over thanks to a strained right forearm muscle. Yadier Molina is already at home resting his knees. The last few games have seen an infusion of youth in the Cardinal lineup. Take last night, where Pujols and Matt Holliday were the only position players at least 30 years old.

1. Tyler Greene
2. Daniel Descalso
3. Pujols
4. Holliday
5. Allen Craig
6. Cody Rasmus
7. Matt Pagnozzi
8. Brendan Ryan

Colorado will probably do something similar in their lineup, playing Chris Nelson more at second, possibly starting Jonathan Hererra a lot at third, perhaps giving Chris Iannetta the lion’s share of games behind the plate the rest of the way. Figure this series will have a Spring Training feel to it out in the field as the clubs move on to 2011.

The projected pitching match ups,however, include the regular suspects:

Thursday 30 Sept – Jason Hammel vs Jake Westbrook. Hammel has not started against the Cardinals in his career. Westbrook will have a final opportunity to impress the Cardinal Front Office heading into the off-season. He probably does not need to do anything more; he has been fantastic in his 2 months with the Cardinals. I for one would like to see him return for 2011, if the price is right.

Friday 1 Oct – Jorge De La Rosa vs Chris Carpenter. De La Rosa has largely been the same pitcher this season (ERA+ 109) as last (ERA+ 107) when he won 16 games. More data on how fickle the win is. He also spent an extended amount of time on the DL in 2010. He has won his last 3 starts against the Cardinals. Carpenter has already started 34 games this season, the third time in his career he’s done so. With 226 IP on a 35-year old repaired arm, I would not be surprised if he missed this start. St Louis has lost his last 2 starts against the Rockies.

Saturday 2 Oct – Jimenez vs Kyle Lohse. Jimenez will make this start (barring an heretofore unreported injury), and it will be his third try to win his 20th game. No Colorado Rockie has ever won 20 games in a season. No Rockie pitcher had ever won 18 games until now. Jimenez beat the Cardinals in July, and is 2-2 career against them. Lohse continues trying to regain his form following his mid-season arm surgery. He has struggled since returning to the rotation in August (in 37.2 IP, 7 HR allowed, 13 BB, 2.069 WHIP). Lohse is due a $3 million raise in 2011, and all his money is guaranteed. He has not beaten Colorado as a Cardinal.

Sunday 3 Oct – Jeff Francis vs Jeff Suppan. It’s been a tough year for Francis as he tries to return from major arm surgery. He missed the first 6 weeks of the season while finishing his rehab, then missed an additional month in August/September. Interestingly, Colorado has only lost one game to the Cardinals when Francis starts – and that was way back in 2006. A bittersweet season will end with a bittersweet start for Jeff Suppan. This will probably be his last start as a Cardinal (his contract includes a 2011 Option for $12.75 million but has a $2 million buyout). St Louis has lost 10 of his 14 starts. I do not envision him returning.

At 35 this might be his last major league start ever. He’s been hit around a little bit (OPS against of .831), and although his ERA is better by 3 runs as a Cardinal his xFIP is almost identical to what it was in Milwaukee (5.04 before, 5.23 now). If this is the end of the line for Soup, thanks for the memories (especially 2006 NLCS Game 7) and best of luck in your future.

With that we will close the book on the 2010 season. Oh, what might have been for both franchises.

On the heels of a hot streak, the Cardinals rolled into Chicago to the tune of one of baseball’s most celebrated rivalries. The trip to the Windy City did not go the way the Cardinals had hoped, as they dropped the opening two and had to salvage Sunday night in front of the ESPN national audience to avoid the sweep. Even that took extra innings.

The bi-polar Cardinals will take their show further East on the road as they slide into another city that is inhabited by an old rival. The team that has become known as “Pond Scum” around the Gateway City will play host to the Redbirds this week for a three game set.

Current Snapshot

St. Louis: 55-44, First Place, NL Central, 1 Game ahead of Cincinnati. The Cards have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and have been showing signs of life since the All Star break. At the same time, they floundered in Chicago to the extent of frustration against a team that they should perform better against if they are in fact the “team to beat” in this division.

New York: 50-49, Third Place, NL East, 7.5 Games back of division leader Atlanta. The Mets are 2-8 over their last 10 games and seem to be on the verge of losing their season. The manager is rumored to be on the hot seat and the players have not performed to the level necessary, causing the team to show up in trade rumors with our other I-70 team, the Royals.

Pitching Matchup

Tuesday, July 27, 6:10 P.M. CST: Adam Wainwright (14-5, 1.94 ERA) vs Jon Niese (6-4, 3.54 ERA)
Wainwright is doing everything in his power to ensure that he does not get left in the dark when it comes to the Cy Young award this season. He has been lights out lately, though many of his starts in the summer heat of St. Louis have been shortened to six innings or so. Wainwright has not surrendered an earned run in his last three starts and is one of the most prolific pitchers in his home ballpark. Jason Bay will look to find his stroke against a pitcher that he has posted a .353 average against in his career. Carlos Beltran, on the other hand, may look to seek revenge for being on the receiving end of one of the most famous pitches in St. Louis Cardinal history.

Niese does not have much of a history against the Redbirds, but what history he has, he would like to forget. In a short outing last season, he sustained an injury to his leg that required surgery to repair. He has been on of New York’s occasional bright spots this season, though not as sharp in his last start. Still, Niese matches up well for the Mets and should give them an opportunity to overcome the Cardinals’ ace and possibly pull out a win.

Wednesday, July 28, 6:10 P.M. CST: Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21 ERA) vs Mike Pelfrey (10-5, 4.00 ERA)
There may not be a better story than Jaime Garcia’s this season for the Cardinals. A pitcher that was overshadowed by other arms going into Spring Training, Jaime has claimed the third spot in the rotation and been dominant at times. At other times, he has been hittable, but he seems to work his way into and out of trouble with some grit.

Mike Pelfrey has been as up and down as the team he plays for this season. While his overall line does not look bad, his last few games have just about wrecked it. While his most recent start suggests that he may be back on track, he has suffered through some horrible pitching, giving up more base runners than innings pitched as of late. Matt Holliday is hitting 375 against Pelfrey in his career, but Randy Winn can only boast a .100 average despite facing him more times than any other St. Louis hitter.

Thursday, July 29, 11:10 A.M. CST: Blake Hawksworth (4-6, 5.23 ERA) vs Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79 ERA)
The Cardinals have survived through most of the season based on their pitching. Blake Hawksworth is the example of both the things that are going right for the team and the reason why the team desperately needs another arm. While the reliever-turned-starter has given the Cardinals serviceable outings and impressed fans beyond his ability this season, he has not been the dominant part of the rotation that the Cardinals need him to be. His last start did not last five innings and, thanks in large part to the bullpen, he did not leave the team in a position to win the game. He has very little experience against this Mets team and the Cardinals will hope that he can keep them in contention against one of New York’s best.

Johan Santana has not been his usual, dominant self in 2010, but you could not tell that over his last three starts. Posting an ERA under one (0.82) while striking out 14 batters over the course of 22 innings, Santana may be finding the proverbial “groove”. Santana always pitches the Cardinals tough, but the resident superstar, Albert Pujols, may be pretty happy to see him. Albert holds a .500 average and a pair of solo home runs against the Mets’ lefty. The middle infield for the Cardinals, however, may not find much solace in the assignment. Skip Schumaker, Felipe Lopez, Brendan Ryan and Aaron Miles have combined for one solitary hit against Santana in 25 at bats.

Prognosis
The Cardinals need to win this series to show that they are closer related to the team that showed up after the All Star Break than the team that went into it. With Wainwright and Garcia on the mound for the first two, they have that opportunity. The team needs to settle in and perform like it is capable of, or the Mets could find themselves sneaking a win or two out of a very tough series.

The Cardinals have Monday off then will travel to New York to take on the Mets for three games and return home to take on Pittsburgh for a 3 game series. As always the Cardinals have plenty of fantasy value and it will continue this week.

Albert Pujols might have a career low batting average right now but all other numbers are very productive. He still ranks towards the top in all of fantasy. Do not even think about sitting him. As always, Pujols should be active in all formats. Matt Holliday continued his hot hitting last week by ending it with a 11 games hit streak. There seems to be no slowing down for Holliday now. In July he is batting .314 with 7 home runs, 19 RBI’s, and scoring 12 runs. Another bonus for this week, Holliday is batting .571 against Pittsburgh and New York this season. He is an elite outfielder and should be active in all formats.

Colby Rasmus has done little to get back into the swing of things since returning from injury. Since the All-Star break, he is hitting .107 with 0 home runs and 1 RBI. Rasmus is healthy now and will have to hit his way out of the slump. Overall season numbers are still above average but until he starts to hit like he was pre-All-Star game, sit him and monitor production. Once he starts to produce, he should be active in most formats. Ryan Ludwick has returned from the disabled list. I would hold off activating him right away. Most likely he will not get a full week of action. Ludwick is a streaky hitter so monitor his production this week. Jon Jay will most likely take away at bats from Rasmus and Ludwick. The way he is hitting the ball, Jay will find more at bats. If you need batting average help, Jay should be activated in NL only or deep mixed leagues as long as he continues to hit the ball like he is now.

Adam Wainwright has a record of 14-5 with an ERA of 1.94 on the season. There has been no pitcher better in July. He is 3-0, with an ERA of 0.31, 22 strikeouts, four walks, and has given up one earned run in 29 innings pitched. Be looking for a possible two start week since Tony La Russa has mentioned he might move him up a day to give Jaime Garcia an extra day of rest. Wainwright is an elite fantasy pitcher and should be active in all formats. Chris Carpenter is scheduled to pitch Saturday against Pittsburgh. His last appearance against the Pirates he struck out eight, walking none while allowing two earned runs over seven innings. Carpenter continues to pitch deep in ball games and should have be active in all formats. Jaime Garcia is scheduled to pitch Tuesday against New York and to be a two start pitcher. As mentioned above, that could change with Garcia moving to Wednesday. He has continued to be a viable fantasy starting pitcher this season. Garcia is 2-0 in July while allowing five earned runs and striking out 20 in 22 2/3 innings pitched. Continue to monitor his productivity for signs of fatigue. Garcia should be active in most fantasy formats. Ryan Franklin has continued to be solid all season. His ERA is currently 3.28 and he still has not allowed an earned run since July 6^th. Franklin has converted 18 of 19 save opportunities. Since he plays for one of the best team in the majors, there should be many save chances to come. Keep him active in all formats.

Fantasy Minor League Profile of the week:

Carlos Matias is the Minor League Profile of the week. He was signed this season during the International Signing Period. Matias is currently a starting pitcher in the Rookie Dominican Summer League. He may not be in the official Minor Leagues right now but is worth mentioning if Cardinal fans do not know who he is. Matias maybe small at 6 foot 165 pounds but can bring the heat with a 99 mph fastball. If you are in a deep keeper league, I recommend picking up Matias now even though he is at least five years away from the Major Leagues.

Series Preview:
Surging Royals seek to gain ground on White Sox before the break

It feels good to be a Royals fan again, doesn’t it? Having been through perhaps the worst stretch ever in Royals history, it seems things are beginning to improve on both sides of the ball at the right time. The Royals are actually still in the hunt sitting about a week out of first place.

The last time these two teams met, June 28-30, the boys in blue cooled off the White Sox’s surge by winning the series two games to one. Since then, both teams have been roughing up Western division opponents heading into the series. The Royals bats have continued their hot streak by solid pitching and having the best hitting team in the Majors.

Pitching Preview

Game 1 Preview
Chen vs. Buehrle

Bruce Chen (5-2) is coming off his most impressive performance of the season against the Angels by going 7.1 innings while only giving up 2 hits and 1 earned run. After that game his ERA stands at a 3.51 for the season which is a half run better than the staff’s ace Zack Greinke. His only prior appearance against the White Sox this season however was not as strong going only .2 of an inning and issuing two walks in a 9-2 loss back on May 5th. Since that appearance, this left hander has brought consistency to the Royals pitching staff and look for another solid performance. Going into this game, opponents are batting a measly .202 against him.

Mark Buehrle was not as impressive in his last start, going seven innings for the win but gave up five hits, including two home runs in the White Sox win against the Rangers. He has been hit-and-miss all season for the White Sox with a record of 7-7. He is 0-2 against the Royals giving up 18 hits, and 9 earned runs for an ERA of 6.69. If the Royals can get to him early like they did in his previous starts, it will be another long day for Buehrle. The Royals are batting .367 against him.

Game 2 Preview
Bannister vs. Floyd

Anthony Lerew, 1-2, was scheduled to start but this start was given to Brian Bannister who is the current wins leader among the Royals starters. Lerew would like to continue his success against the White Sox that he had against them on June 28 but it will have to wait until after the all-star break. His win against the White Sox was very important to him as a pitcher because it was his first win as a major leaguer. He scattered three hits and only one earned run in a six inning gem. However, Manger Yost made this change despite Bannister’s struggles with against the White Sox. He (Yost) sited that the day off on Thursday will give Bannister his allotted amount of rest and that he had talked it over with Bannister before announcing this decision.
Bannister’s ERA against the White Sox is an atrocious 9.69 in his three starts this season. His best performance was a six inning performance on May 16th at home. The White Sox have hit Bannister hard and often this season with a .386 average going into this weekend series.

Gavin Floyd (4-7) has had faced the Royals three times so far this season and so far the Royals have had the better of him. He is currently 1-2 with a 6.15 ERA in his three starts against the Royals. In his last two starts (one against the Royals); he has 13.2 innings and only given up 3 earned runs. The Royals are batting .361 against him.

Game 3 Preview
Greinke vs. Peavy

This game features two Cy Young award winners, Greinke (2009) and Peavy (2007). Greinke started off the season with little if any run support at all in his first ten starts. Despite the rocky start, he was seemed to have found his stride by notching his third consecutive victory against the Mariners Tuesday night. Greinke is 5-8 and Peavy is currently sitting at 7-6. Both of these pitchers want to go into the all-star break with another win under their belts. Zack did earn the victory in his only one start against the White Sox this year despite giving up ten hits and six earned runs on June 30.
Peavy has been consistent enough to notch a 2-1 record against the boys in blue with an ERA of 2.98. The Royals have batted only .228 against him so far this season. Peavy may be replaced depending upon the diagnosis of his arm injury that he sustained Tuesday against the Angels.

Big picture and numbers

Both teams want to establish momentum heading into the second half. Which ever team captures the momentum in this series, watch out AL Central. In the season series the White Sox are batting .254 with 17 extra base hits while the Royals are batting .313 with 19 extra base hits.

Edge

Offense: Royals have without question the better team offense. They are the best team in baseball right now in several offensive categories including batting average.

Defense: White Sox have the third highest fielding percentage in the American League and seventh in the majors while the Royals are ranked tenth in the American League and nineteenth overall. The Royals have been playing well defensively lately but when the errors do come they have proven costly.

Pitching: If we go by the team numbers the White Sox have the Royals beat. However, if you look at the pitching match ups and the way the probable starters have performed recently, it will be an even match up this weekend in Chicago.

X-factor: Royals have been hitting the baseball better than any team in baseball, both at home and on the road. However, one of their key players in their offense, Jose Guillen, came up limp in the eighth inning Tuesday. He currently leads the Royals in home runs and RBIs. The White Sox’s best pitcher is also hurt as well. Good pitching beats good hitting any day of the week. With this recent news in mind, I give the Royals a slight edge going into this weekend before the break.