The St. Louis Cardinals come into the 2012 offseason having won a World Series in 2011 and falling one game short of returning to the Fall Classic in 2012.  The team, for the most part, is set at almost every position.  They have publicly said they will be exploring the option of upgrading the middle infield, the only two spots on the team that anyone can easily look at and say “they could be better”.

But that bothers this writer.  I do not like a team that simply “stands pat”, no matter how successful they have been in the past.  This team can be better at a few spots on the field and with today’s notebook, I look to the top of the free agent class and ask the simple question: Why not look at Michael Bourn?

Now, hear me out before you jump on me for not being a Jon Jay supporter, for wanting to throw money around just for the sake of spending, or for blocking prospects as they progress through the Cardinals’ system.  I assure  you, there are good reasons to examine the possibility of one of the top outfielders available on the market wearing the Birds On The Bat.

Defense Is Key
Personally, when I look at the middle of the diamond (catcher, second base, shortstop, center field), I prefer to have guys that will solidify the defense.

Now, I’m not trying to say that Jon Jay is a bad defender.  Quite the opposite really.  That’s the point here, if I can look at a player and say that he is an upgrade in defense at a key position where I feel the team is already strong, that shows a lot of respect for the other player.  Michael Bourn is a two-time Gold Glove Award winner in center field and has the speed to help cover the gaps that are left by having power guys like Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran at the corners.

This Bench Needs Help
It was Chris Reed who mentioned in a recent discussion the lack of faith in the bench.  Adron Chambers and Shane Robinson are average players, but pinch hitting late in a game when the Cardinals need runners, they do not inspire a ton of confidence.

Jon Jay has proven in the past that he is more than capable of coming off the bench during a ball game and producing.  In addition, he has proven in the past that he can produce when not in the lineup consistently.  He is the type of player that can jump into the starting lineup at any point but can also be a weapon late in games.

It Is Not Financial Suicide
Looking at what the Cardinals have coming off the books for this season (Lance Berkman, Kyle Lohse), reinvesting that money in a player like Bourn is not the end of the world.

Many experts project Bourn to get a contract very similar to that of Torii Hunter when he signed his former deal with Anaheim.  That projects to a 5 year/$90 million contract or an average value of $18 million per year.  Puma’s 2012 contract was for $12 million while Lohse was earning just under $12 million himself.  Personally, I feel that Bourn will land closer to $15 million a season for around four years, though either number is within reason for the Cardinals.

The youth of this franchise offers some financial flexibility over the next few seasons.  With key positions being patrolled by home grown talent and other prospects being projected to take over other positions, the time for being able to take on a bit of salary is now.

It Doesn’t Block Prospects
The Cardinals key prospect in the outfield is Oscar Taveras, who has spent most of his minor league career patrolling center field.

That being said, Taveras has been projected by many to have a future at the corner outfield positions and the Cardinals, most likely, see him as the right fielder of the future after Beltran’s contract plays out.  The only person displaced by the addition of Bourn over the next four to five years is Jon Jay.

It Solves The Top Of The Lineup
It has been a long time since the Cardinals have had a player that can solidify the leadoff position the way Michael Bourn can.

Yes, he strikes out a lot.  I do not like that in the leadoff role any more than the next guy.  But he steals a lot of bases, walked a career high 70 times last season, was able to show occasional power with nine home runs, and is a commodity that the Cardinals have not had in a very long time.

Summary
Sometimes you have to be willing to upgrade even when you are satisfied with what you have.  The Cardinals have a chance to improve themselves defensively, on the bench, and at the top of the order in a big way by taking a look at Bourn as a key component of the future.

While I do not feel the Cardinals have to make a move like this to continue to be successful, it would be nice to see the team make a move like this in an effort to get better.  After all, it would be nice to win the division instead of fighting their way into the playoffs through the wild card.

Bill Ivie started i70baseball to write about his love for the game and the teams he enjoys watching most, the Cardinals and the Royals.

Hot Stove: International representation may bolster ’12 Nats
Current, former Naturals wrap up winter ball stints

SPRINGDALE, AR – In the first four years of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals’ existence, their roster has been dotted with Latin American players representing Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and even Brazil. While that is no doubt a diverse group, the 2012 Naturals may have to hang a few extra flags.

Cuba, Panama, and Curacao could all find themselves represented on this season’s Naturals’ roster as Northwest Arkansas attempts to cover all of its international bases with respect to baseball-playing nations. The quartet of potential Naturals is led by a pair of intriguing Cubans – left-handed pitcher Noel Arguelles and outfielder Yem Prades — who spent their first full seasons in professional baseball together last season at Advanced Class-A Wilmington, and also includes Panamanian reliever Yeliar Castro and Curacao-born utility player Sharlon Schoop.

Royals fans may remember Arguelles, who Kansas City GM Dayton Moore signed to a $7 million contract prior to the 2010 season. Perhaps due to fatigue related to helping the Cuban National team, Arguelles didn’t make it out of Arizona that season but finally got on the field last year with Wilmington. The southpaw got off to a fast start, allowing just two runs over 17 2/3 innings (the Royals limited his innings) in his first four starts, good for a 1.02 ERA. Though he was shut down for the season after reaching 104 innings in early August, he finished his first professional season with a 4-5 record and a 3.20 ERA. Perhaps more importantly, he allowed just 93 hits and issued only 24 walks in those 104 innings and held opposing hitters to a .245 average.

Arguelles doesn’t possess the raw stuff or radar-gun lighting abilities of a higher-profile Cuban defector that came to the United States around the same time (Cincinnati Reds’ Aroldis Chapman), but at well over $20 million less of an price tag, he represented a younger investment and perhaps a better play. The 6’3”, 215 pound lefty will be just 22 on Opening Day, when he should take his low 90’s fastball and complementary breaking pitches into the Naturals’ rotation.

Prades was even less hyped than Arguelles coming from Cuba. He defected to the Dominican Republic in 2008 and was signed in April by Rene Francisco, the Royals’ Special Assistant to the GM/International Operations. The 23-year old outfielder was assigned to Wilmington in May and was fairly consistent at the plate, batting .289 with four homers, 11 steals, and 24 RBI’s in 80 games, holding his own in the pitching-oriented environment the Blue Rocks play in. Francisco was quoted on a blog site that Prades, who’ll turn 24 during spring training, has “above-average tools.” Between that and serving as a companion for Arguelles as they continue their assimilation to professional baseball in the US, expect those tools to be on display in Double-A this year.

Castro may not be familiar to Naturals fans but would be familiar with Moore and Francisco, who both worked for the Atlanta Braves when the right-hander signed out of Panama on July 2^nd, 2004. Fast forward to 2011 – Castro became a minor league free agent, and the Royals, with several ex-Braves front office staff members still familiar with names they signed out of the international market, gave him a contract. A countryman of Yankees’ closer Mariano Rivera, Castro strikes out a batter or more per inning – 44 in 39 innings across three levels in 2011.

Lastly, Schoop is a versatile player who can play all four infield positions and the corner OF positions. Should he end up on the Naturals, he’ll be the first player of Dutch heritage to play for Northwest Arkansas. Schoop spent the first part of his career in the San Francisco Giants’ organization and batted .243 in portions of three seasons in the Eastern League, but has the potential to offer Naturals’ skipper Brian Poldberg tremendous versatility – last season he played 34 games at shortstop, 25 at first base, 11 at third base, and three games at second. Like big league outfielder Andruw Jones, Schoop is a resident of Willemstad, Curacao, a baseball-appreciating nation that sits in the middle of the South Caribbean – typically soccer-loving countries.

Naturals/Texas League Notes

Managerial Notes: Between the announcement Monday that Brian Poldberg and his entire staff will be returning to Northwest Arkansas and last week’s announcement by the Corpus Christi Hooks that they’ll have a new skipper (Keith Bodie) again in 2012, the Arkansas Travelers and Frisco RoughRiders are the lone two teams yet to name their field staffs for the upcoming season. The Naturals will open the season on a six-game road swing that starts against Bodie’s Hooks on April 5^th in Corpus Christi.

Winter League Report

The Winter Leagues have wrapped up across Mexico and the Caribbean…

Puerto Rico: Rey Navarro (Crillos de Caguas) wrapped up his season in the league with hits in four of his last five games to finish at .187 (14-for-75). He did have a homer and 11 RBI’s… Irving Falu (Indios de Mayaguez) had a solid campaign in Puerto Rico, batting .284 with 13 RBI’s in 41 games… Angel Sanchez, teammates with Falu, had a stellar winter league season, batting .293 with a homer and ten RBI’s as he preps to compete for playing time with the Houston Astros this year…Mario Santiago, having completed a stint in the Dominican Republic that saw him go 2-0 with a 2.62 ERA in nine appearances for Tigres del Licey, now has re-located back to his native Puerto Rico and joined his usual club, the Gigantes de Carolina. He made four starts for that club and finished allowing just two runs in 23 innings, holding batters to a .222 average.

Venezuela: Mario Lisson (Navegantes de Magallanes) got more playing time than ever before in winter ball and carried his solid average and power production from the Naturals’ regular season with him, batting .279 with 11 homers and 29 RBI’s. He’ll hope that translates into a push for a spot with Triple-A Omaha this spring…Former Natural Ernesto Mejia (Aguilas del Zulia) cooled off late in the season to finish at .262 with ten homers and 49 RBI’s, which led his team…Manny Pina (Bravos de Margarita) sees mainly defensive duty only for the Bravos, and he finished with a .128 average in 18 games.

Dominican Republic: Manauris Baez (Estrellas de Oriente) finished out a stellar winter league season, making ten starts among 11 appearances and going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA… Willy Lebron made one more appearance late in the year for Licey and finished with a 2-3 record and 3.28 ERA, fanning 22 in 24 2/3 innings… Kelvin Herrera (Leones del Escogido) completed his stint in winter ball after 12 outings, having allowed just one earned run and fanning 15 while walking four in 17 1/3 innings pitched…He was teammates with Everett Teaford, who finished his winter league season with five starts, during which he went 1-1 with a 3.04 ERA, striking out 29 batters and walking only three in 23 2/3 innings. Elisaul Pimentel (Leones del Escogido) made eight appearances out of the bullpen with a 2.70 ERA, striking out 12 in 13 1/3 innings of work…Naturals’ southpaw Andrew Dobies (Toros del Este) really struggled in six appearances as a lefty specialist, allowing five runs in 2 1/3 innings of work. Edgar Garcia (Tigres del Licey) made just two appearances and had a 5.40 ERA.

Mexico: Federico Castaneda (Tomateros de Culiacan) had an up-and-down season in the Mexican League and completed his year with a 1-2 record and 5.75 ERA in 25 outings, although he displayed a great strikeout to walk ratio of 24-8 in 20 1/3 innings…Royals’ minor league Rule 5 acquisition Thomas Melgarejo (Aguilas de Mexicali) finished with a 3.57 ERA in 26 appearances. Marlon Arias, a southpaw signed by the Royals in December, played in both the Dominican and Mexico and pitched to a 2.08 ERA in 13 appearances between the two stops.

These teams and respective leagues will play the round-robin Caribbean Series which takes place in February just before early reports for Major League Spring Training.

Transaction Log: Former Naturals’ pitcher Barry Bowden, who appeared with the club late in the 2010 season, was released by the Royals in late December. Bowden, a right-handed reliever, missed all of 2011 recovering from a shoulder injury…Former Naturals’ slugger Corey Smith, who hit 21 homers and drove in 90 runs during the 2009 season, signed a minor league contract with the Chicago White Sox after two seasons in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ organization, where he split time between their Double-A and Triple-A levels. It is a homecoming of sorts for Smith, who played for the White Sox’ Double-A Birmingham affiliate in 2006…Third baseman Josh Fields, the former Oklahoma State Cowboy quarterback who spent 11 games with the Naturals on a rehab assignment in 2010, signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers that includes an invite to big league spring training. He is returning to the states after spending the bulk of the 2011 season in the Korean Baseball League…

Check nwanaturals.com twice monthly for the Hot Stove Report, where we’ll continue to follow Royals’ minor leaguers in winter ball as well as cover other off-season baseball information that pertains to the Naturals and the Texas League.

The Northwest Arkansas Naturals are the Double-A Texas League affiliate of the Kansas City Royals and play at state-of-the-art Arvest Ballpark, located in Springdale. Visit our website, nwanaturals.com, for information on season tickets and ticket plans.

It is the time of year for the Hot Stove to get stocked up and the Rumor Mill to fill to the brim.

When you are the World Champions, those rumors are a bit fewer and far between. The Cardinals have a few needs this off-season, all of which begin with the retention of their superstar, Albert Pujols.

News broke last week that the Marlins met with Albert in Florida and took him on a tour of the new stadium. Rumor is circulating now that the offer made from Miami to Pujols is a nine year offer. No financial information has leaked as of yet. Albert has repeatedly said that a franchise that is built to win is a primary interest, leaving some to wonder how serious he is considering an offer from Miami.

It is a bit surprising that the game’s top free agent has only been linked to one team so far this year. Cardinal general manager John Mozeliak is set to meet with Dan Lozano, Pujols’ agent, face to face during the GM meetings being held this week in Milwaukee.

Also on the Cardinals rumor front this week is the coaching staff, which seems to be a mixture of rumor and news at this point.

It has been widely reported that Memphis manager Chris Maloney has been promoted to the major league coaching staff, though no one knows what role that is for as of yet and the team is officially not commenting on the move. Subsequently, rumor is also circulating that Springfield manager Ron “Pop” Warner will be taking over the Memphis helm, much like he took over Springfield from Maloney in the past.

A veteran managerial name has surfaced in regards to the bench coach position opened up by the rumor that Joe Petini is no longer a part of the Cardinal family. Grady Little, former manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the man that Terry Francona replaced in Boston, has been rumored to be in discussion with the team. Again, no official word on this, but Little comes with a bit of a controversial background, so keep your eyes and ears peeled for this announcement.

The Cardinals will be looking to solidify the middle infield this season and hope to be able to retain late season acquisition Rafael Furcal. Furcal has put himself into a good position by having a healthy showing in Cardinal red down the stretch run and is now rumored to be seeking a three year deal or, at least, a two year deal with an option year. No word on the money the shorstop is looking for, but our friends at MLB Trade Rumors feel that he has limited his suitors drastically. The Brewers have interest in him, but no word if they have interest in meeting his demands.

John Mozeliak, when asked about Furcal’s situation, stated: “I’m not going to base our reaction on rumors or innuendo. But if I woke up tomorrow and he was signed I’d be a little disappointed.”

Finally today, the Cardinals are planning to hold a “Red Carpet Screening” of the 2011 World Series Film next week in St. Louis. Fans can be a part of the premier by attending the event on Tuesday, November 22 at the Peabody Opera House in St. Louis. Tickets are $15 and can be purchased at WorldSeries.com. Download the official announcement (PDF) by clicking here.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

November is the saddest month, at least for baseball fans. Come December the Winter Meetings start up, and along with that comes the excitement of free agent and trade activity that keeps us all occupied. If your team finished its business early January can still be hard to sit through. However January usually still brings plenty of hot stove discussion.

November, though. November is just painful. There’s a holding pattern all across Major League Baseball. Teams begin organizing their off season priorities much like an NFL team sets up their War Room before the draft. GMs and managers are deciding who they would like to bring in for 2012…and who they can ship out.

There is still arbitration and tracking who has filed for free agency. Of course there is also the awards cycle that peaks just enough interest to get the average fan frustrated that it is still over 90 days until Spring Training. But by and large November is one mean cold-hearted, unforgiving month for baseball fans.

It’s an odd November this year for Cardinal Nation, though, as we actually have something real to consider, something foreign over the last 16 years. The Cardinal brain trust is sifting through resumes (well maybe a bit more due diligence than that) to determine who will take the helm as skipper of the Redbirds for the next 5-10 years.

Tougher still many are being forced to sit idly by as Albert Pujols decides which team will have the honor of making him worth over a quarter of a billion dollars. Fun stuff for fans.

Luckily February brings spring training and the promise of summer. Of course there is also the delusional optimism that comes with every team having a fresh start. Making even Cubs fans into believers for the next month or two.

The Society of American Baseball Research (SABR) will host the second annual SABR Day on January 29. This year’s SABR day especially significant, for it kicks off the 4oth year of the organization.

SABR Chapters around the country, and world, will host meetings and events and talk a little baseball. Late January is, as you know, a lull in the baseball news cycle. Most of the free agent signings are complete, with the marquis names having either returned to their former teams or found new employment. Teams have put the final touches on their rosters in preparation for Spring Training, barely 3 weeks away. And the NFL playoffs have reached the penultimate weekend, with Conference Champions determined but the Super Bowl still a week away.

It’s the perfect weekend to stoke the Hot Stove one final time.

In 2010 37 chapters met in 34 separate events with a total of 712 members attending. That figure is probably lower than the actual total turnout; for example, in my local chapter approximately half of those in attendance were not formal members of SABR.

As was the case last year, individual agendas will vary depending on the preferences of that particular chapter. Last January my local chapter was lucky enough to spend over an hour in a question and answer period with the Director of Baseball Operations for our local Major League team, and this year we are scheduled for 30 minutes with one of the Assistant General Managers. The local St Louis Chapter (Bob Broeg) hosted a luncheon, which included a discussion panel of members of the local media, as well as prominent bloggers, who talked about the rise of blogging and social media in covering baseball and its impact.

There’s a lot to offer the casual baseball follower, and a treasure trove of information for the SABR-inclined fan, at at these chapter events 2 weeks from now.

Details on SABR Day can be found at the SABR website, as well as a list of chapters. Not every chapter has their own website, but contact information for each chapter can be found at the aforementioned link.

So celebrate SABR Day with your local passionate baseball friends. You’ll thank us for the suggestion.

It is January. It is cold. The National Football League is chugging along through the playoffs. Baseball? It is right around the corner.

The National Pastime is gathering momentum, the “hot stove” is starting to simmer, and the teams are starting to take shape as we near those magical words: “Pitchers And Catchers Report”.

I-70 Baseball takes a look at the American League Central and the Royals this week. Throughout the week, expect to see in depth articles from our writers breaking down the Royals roster against each team in the Central Division. You will also find guest articles from writers of other sites, giving an in depth look at the team they write about the most. Tune in this week as we break down the American League Central here on I-70 Baseball.

Tune into I-70 Baseball Radio tonight as we welcome writers from around the AL Central to talk baseball, 2011, and the chances their team has going forward. You can catch us on Blog Talk Radio under the brand new Ivie League Productions banner. Stay tuned for new shows, websites, and New Media outlooks to be announced throughout the month.

This time last year, the St. Louis Cardinals were picked by just about everyone to win the NL Central with little trouble. They had just signed Matt Holliday to the richest contract in franchise history, Brad Penny was added to round out the rotation, and they were the defending division champs. No other teams made huge moves before 2010 to try to catch the Cards. Some picked the Cincinnati Reds as a dark horse candidate, but that was about the extent of the legitimate threats. The NL Central was the Cardinals’ to win or lose.

And we all know how that turned out.

Fast-forward one year. The Cards made a lot of moves early to shore up the 2011 club in anticipation of spending this part of the offseason trying to re-sign Albert Pujols. It was a smart move, because that’s exactly what is happening: this week the team announced they have re-opened talks with the legend’s agent, and things are moving in a positive direction. That’s great news for Cardinal Nation. But after that piece of business is taken care of, the question remains: will it be enough?

The division champion Cincinnati Reds had little to do this offseason. A piece here and a piece there was really all the tweaking needed…most of their 2010 club is returning and healthy. So they could be counted on as, at the very least, co-favorites for the 2011 crown with the Cards before the Hot Stove proceedings really got underway. When the Cards re-signed Jake Westbrook, the team appeared to have the best rotation—on paper, of course—in the division. Add offensive upgrades in Ryan Theriot and Lance Berkman, and the Cards were poised to take the Central back from the Reds in 2011.

But the Theriot and Berkman additions are not all they seem. Theriot was added at the expense of Brendan Ryan’s incomparable defense, effectively weakening the Cards’ middle infield (and possibly their entire pitch-to-contact staff). Berkman will be asked to play a full season in the outfield for the first time since 2004, and he has recent injury issues to go with his advancing age. Perhaps it was these perceived weaknesses and a belief the Reds could be prone to a regression that led some of the other teams in the Central to ask, “Hey…why can’t we compete with these guys?”

First, the Milwaukee Brewers got busy revamping their god-awful rotation and acquired Shawn Marcum from the Toronto Blue Jays. Then they surprised everyone by trading for former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, sending some of their best young talent to the Kansas City Royals in return. These bold moves instantly thrust the Brewers into the conversation about who would win the division this year. The Brewers have always been able to hit, and now apparently they can pitch, too.

Not to be outdone, the Chicago Cubs went out and got the lefty power bat they’ve craved for so long in Carlos Pena. They also added a rejuvenated Kerry Wood to their bullpen. But the Cubs have lots of problems too, and were believed to be rebuilding while they wait out the terrible contracts of Alphonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Carlos Zambrano. Still, the rumors persisted, and finally Chicago decided to make some noise in the NL Central projections Friday by trading half their farm system to the Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Matt Garza. Suddenly they have a deep rotation to go with a deep bullpen. If their head cases can keep their cool, the Cubs will not be a pushover in 2011.

The Brewers and the Cubs obviously see an opportunity this season; why else would they trade away so many young, cheap players for veterans? These teams are not without their flaws, to be sure, but they look a heck of a lot better than they did last season. The Reds look to be just about as good as they did last year. Even the Astros cannot be completely dismissed; they have a young lineup, but their rotation of Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, JA Happ, and Bud Norris is decent at worst. No, this is not the new AL East. But it certainly does not look like the same old NL Central, either.

After taking all that in, how much better do the Cardinals look this year than last? Can they compete in a four team dogfight for the NL Central crown? Maybe John Mozeliak better speed up the Pujols negotiations a little…he might have some more work to do for 2011.

Chris Reed is a freelance writer who also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and at Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

Winter has officially begun, and Spring Training is still a good month and a half away. Around the league, the hot stove is keeping hot. The Phillies landed Cliff Lee, The Red Sox added Adrian Gonzales, and even the Milwaukee Brewers made a big splash by acquiring 2009 AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.

The Cardinals have thrown a few logs in the hot stove to keep the fire going this winter. The biggest signing to this point has been Lance Berkman. But the elephant in the room remains: “Will the Cardinals re-sign Albert Pujols?” And the silence on the contract talks is worrisome. The Cardinals essentially have about 8 weeks left to lock in Albert before he hits the free agent market: 6 weeks until spring training, and anywhere from 2-6 weeks after the 2011 season ends depending on how deep the Cards go in the playoffs (Pujols says he won’t negotiate during the season).

It’s in the Cardinals’ best interest to get this deal done as soon as possible. The longer they’ve waited to address Pujols’ contract, the more it has cost them. Last winter, they raised the price on themselves by giving Matt Holliday a $120 million, 7 year contract. Holliday helped the Cardinals take over the Central Division in his brief two months in St. Louis before abruptly having a horrendous Division Series vs the Dodgers. He failed to take his bat off his shoulders with the bases loaded and no outs in Game 1, then dropped what would’ve been the 27th and winning out in game 2. The Cardinals got swept in large part to Holliday’s anti-clutch performance. But for that, he was rewarded with $17 million per season through 2017.

Pujols’ price went up again when the Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a $125 million, 5 year contract over the summer. Howard’s a fellow first baseman in the National League, and has a championship ring and an MVP award. It’s a good starting point (yes, starting point) for negotiating a contract for Pujols. Prince Fielder, another big name first-baseman in the National League, will likely also get an enormous contract at the end of next season. The Scott Boras Client will be looking to at least out-do Holliday (another Boras client) if not Howard.

So essentially, a bargain-basement price for Pujols would be in the neighborhood of 5-7 years at $27-30 million per year. Again, that’s assuming Prince Fielder doesn’t somehow get a contract like that, which would drive the price for Pujols even higher.

And as Cardinals fans, you have to begin to ask yourself: “Is he worth it?” I know, I know, what a blasphemous thing to say! Of course he’s worth it, he’s Albert Pujols! Look, I’m not saying Albert isn’t worth that kind of crazy jack. Based on what Ryan Howard got and what Pujols has done in his career, I think it’s fair to say he should become the game’s highest paid player. The question is: “Can the Cardinals field a competitive team with Holliday and Pujols making close to a third of a billion dollars?”

I say no.

You’d be looking at a team with one, maybe two good starters, a low-paid infield, no Yadier Molina, and at least one if not two holes in the outfield. You couldn’t afford a big money closer, and you’d basically be hoping to strike gold in your farm system at multiple positions. Of course, the Brewers and Reds can tell you that only works out once or twice every quarter-century. The Royals and Pirates are still waiting for it to work.

The success of the Cardinals’ franchise has been cyclical. They were good in the late 20s/early 30s, they were good in the 40s, the 60s, the 80s, and this past decade. The team has been in the playoffs in ’00-’02. ’04-’06, and ’09. I wrote last week that perhaps the Cardinals were looking to play for 2011 only, leaving the future of the franchise up in the air.

And maybe that’s the case.

Losing Pujols would be crippling, but keeping him might be crippling as well.

On Monday, December 6, the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort isn’t a place for dreamy children’s wishes to come true. Instead, it transforms into a winter wonderland full of promise for the big boys still playing a kids game. MLB’s 109^th annual Winter Meetings hits the Sunshine State while the rest of the country battles Old Man Winter. The Florida sun combined with rumors surrounding baseball’s best will fuel the Hot Stove.

The biggest story lines are consumed by the potential mega contracts of this year’s top free agents Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, and Derek Jeter. The two hottest commodities though, two former Cy Young Award winners lefty Cliff Lee and righty Zack Greinke.

Concerns from Royals fans as to whether Greinke will still be sporting Royal blue next week are founded. The trade talks began four months ago during the regular season trade deadline, but any potential deals fizzled. Besides Lee, this year’s free agent starting pitching choices are slim. The opportunity to acquire a top of the line ace is limited essentially to two options, give Lee about $150 million or mortgage the farm to trade for Greinke.

I’m not here to debate whether trading Greinke is the right move or not. Frankly, since my name’s not Dayton Moore, my opinion on moving Greinke doesn’t matter. Instead, I’d like to take a look at what the Royals should expect if a deal is made.

There has been some debate as to what a Greinke-sized haul would look like. Would Moore prefer major league ready talent since there is little to speak of on the roster now? Would he seek a grab bag of the top prospects to bolster what’s already been created in the minors? Would he trade Greinke to any team to receive the greatest return?

There are a lot of moving parts around the rumors. The past few days has provided a bit of clarity surrounding Greinke. On Tuesday, Yahoo’s John Passan reported Greinke wouldn’t rule out being traded to a contender like New York, despite his no trade clause for 15 clubs. Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported Thursday Moore would not deal Greinke within the division.

To create a list of ‘interested’ teams would be futile. Every single GM in baseball is ‘interested’ in a talent like Greinke. Instead it will wither to teams with a desperate need for a top arm and the pieces in place to make the deal happen.

As of now, the two most likely destinations for Greinke, New York and Texas are locked in a contract tussle over Lee. Whoever comes out on the short end of the Lee deal will surely see it as a necessity to match the others move by making a push for Greinke. Considering these two teams were battling over the AL pennant a month ago, neither wants to be outdone this offseason.

To get an idea of what these clubs would pony up for Greinke we should take look back at recent deals for Cy Young Award winners, Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, and Lee (three times). Before looking at those trades it must be noted the deals made for Sabathia and Lee were essentially half-season rentals. Greinke still has two years and $27 million left on his contract. At $13.5 million each year, Greinke is a steal in the MLB economy (SP deals done so far this offseason – Jorge de la Rosa/ $11 million per year, Javier Vazquez/ $7 million per year, John Garland/ $5 million guaranteed $3 million incentives, Hiroki Kuroda/ $12 million per year, Jake Westbrook/ $8.5 million per year).

As you will see, most of the trades brought back 4-5 prospects, 2-3 being top tier prospects breaking into Baseball America’s top 100 minor leaguers. Because of Greinke’s club friendly contract, as well as gaining his services for two seasons instead of half a season should result in a bigger even return for the Royals. Numbers in parentheses are their ranking in Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2009-10.

July 8, 2008

Brewers receive C.C. Sabathia

Indians receive Rob Bryson, Zach Johnson, Michael Brantley, and Matt LaPorta (27)

June 29, 2009

Phillies receive Ben Francisco, Cliff Lee

Indians receive Jason Knapp (64), Carlos Carrasco (52), Jason Donald (69), and Lou Marson (44)

December 16, 2009

Phillies receive Roy Halladay

Blue Jays receive Michael Taylor (29), Travis d’Arnaud, and Kyle Drabek (25)

June 9, 2010

Rangers receive Mark Lowe and Cliff Lee

Mariners receive Matthew Lawson, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Justin Smoak (13)

While the amount of players in each deal is fairly consistent, the talent differs. The 2008 Indians (Matt LaPorta), 2009 Blue Jays (Kyle Drabek), and 2010 Mariners (Justin Smoak) all based their deals around one major prospect complimented by a few mid level prospects.

In 2009, the Indians went for a more balanced return. They received four prospects all in the top 100, but not higher than Marson at 44. I didn’t include Lee’s second trade from the Phillies to the Mariners because they received significantly less than any other deal. Mainly, they were trying to move Lee’s contract quickly since they had just acquired Halladay.

It’s hard to evaluate if these were worthwhile deals considering most of the players involved are just now breaking into the big leagues. None the less it still gives us some ground to stand on.

If Yankees shell out another huge offseason contract, the Rangers offer a deep farm system to pick from. Moore has no doubt lustily reviewed the scouting reports of the Rangers two top pitching prospects, LHP Martin Perez and RHP Tanner Scheppers.

Moore was brought up ‘the Braves way.’ An emphasis on pitching strength constructed within the organization. Moore was quoted as saying ‘it takes about 20 pitching prospects to find 4 or 5 major leaguers.’

Moore’s moves have reflected that exact mentality of selecting high end arms in the draft and more recently, dealing David DeJesus for two young arms. Moore would jump at the opportunity to add the likes of Perez and Scheppers to the Royals youth movement.

Baseball America rated Perez as the Rangers number one prospect, while Scheppers checks in at third. Scheppers was recognized as having the best fastball and curveball in the Rangers organization. In BA’s projected 2014 lineup, Perez and Scheppers are already penciled in as the number one and two starters in the Rangers’ rotation.

Engel Beltre, number five on the list, could be potential trade bait as well. The 20 year old Dominican is highly touted for his defense. BA claims he is the best defender and has the best outfield arm in the organization. In his first year of rookie ball Beltre hit measly .243. His offense is starting to catch up with his defense though, this season in A+ and AA Beltre hit .300, 6 HR, 49 RBI, and 18 SB.

If Lee happens to stay in the Lone Star state, the talks with the Yankees will heat up. The deal will be centered around Jesus Montero, who is widely considered the top hitting prospect to break into the MLB in 2011. Montero is listed as a catcher, but the verdict is still out on his future behind the dish. The Yankees are set on catching Montero in 2011 to take the burden off of aging Jorge Posada. Bill James’ projects Montero having a monster rookie campaign .285/.348/.519, 21 HR, and 67 RBI.

This is where the potential return comes into question. Does Moore take a chance on a bat that plays with no position? If he ends up not being a competent catcher the Royals are stuck with three top level players for two spots (Montero, Billy Butler, and Eric Hosmer). Apparently, the Yankees offered Montero in a deal for Joakim Soria during the 2010 trade deadline, but Moore balked at the offer.

Despite the questions about Montero’s defense, the Yankees offer a deep system to find future Royals out of. All of the potential prospects clocked in the top ten in the Yankees system, RHP Andrew Brackman (5), LHP Manny Banuelos, and C Austin Romine (6).

The Yankees offer some intriguing big league options too. RHP Ivan Nova made his first seven MLB starts last year down the stretch. Left fielder Brett Gardner would fit perfectly into the leadoff spot and is capable of playing center in the spacious Kauffman outfield. Gardner got on base just under 40% of the time in 2010, while swiping 47 bags and driving in 47.

If a deal isn’t done within the next week, next month, or next trade deadline it doesn’t mean Greinke won’t eventually be traded. Moore realizes the longer teams wait to pull the trigger on a Greinke trade, the less return they will get out of him for the prospects they give up. With that in mind, Moore is presumably testing the waters with Greinke and seeing what his maximum return is. After he realizes his worth, Moore will seek a deal which would maybe get 10-20% more than expected. There is no doubt, the more games Greinke starts as a Royal, the less valuable he is to other organizations. If Greinke is still a Royal as his contract dwindles, he will certainly garner less in return.

A night after I-70 Baseball Radio openly admitted that the lack of hot stove activity has both been frustrating and hard to overcome, the Cardinals became active in the market. One week prior to the highly anticipated Winter Meetings, General Manager John Mozeliak added a middle infielder and a left handed reliever to his roster, one via trade and the other via free agency.

In what seemed to be moments after the Dodgers had officially acquired former Giant, and Cardinal target, Juan Uribe via free agency, the Dodgers sent Ryan Theriot to the Cardinals in exchange for Blake Hawksworth. The Cardinals used the depth of right handed relief available in the organization to add some much needed insurance to the middle infield.

But did they get the job done?

Theriot, historically, is a lead off hitting shortstop who can also play some second base. He is a solid base stealing threat, an above average defender, and a solid on base threat. That is, historically speaking. Last season, Theriot patrolled second base primarily, saw his on base percentage drop, and was not as potent at the plate.

Can Theriot recover and be the lead-off hitter the Cardinals need to set the table? Does this trade mean that Brendan Ryan will be dealt at the Winter Meetings next week? John Mozeliak has already been quoted on twitter saying that Theriot is the team’s starting shortstop. Tony LaRussa, however, has stated that he believes there will be a competition in Spring for that position.

In another move, the Cardinals signed left-handed reliever Brian Tallet after his release from the Toronto Blue Jays. Tallet will assume the role left vacant by Dennys Reyes and join Trevor Miller in the bullpen this season. He held left handed hitters to a .176 batting average and four home runs last year, but struggled against right handers. He seems to be the type of player LaRussa works well with and will be a plus in the bullpen.

The Cardinals may have improved and may have just moved laterally. A lot will be told in Spring Training this year. Until then, the jury is out and I remain hopeful that there is something bigger on the horizon for the Cardinals.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
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