I know I have been absent for a while, and you all know that I am prone to hyperbole, but the Royals recent revelation the Luis Mendoza has won the job of fifth starter has brought me out of the shadows…and my hyperbole with it. A month ago everyone considered it a lock that Luke Hochevar would win the fifth spot…and they sent him to the bullpen. A week ago we speculated that Bruce Chen would get the nod despite Mendoza’s outstanding offseason…and they sent him to the bullpen. What this leaves us with is quite possibly the best rotation for the Kansas City Royals in 20+ years. Let’s take a look at the contenders:

The Greinke Years

The signing of James Shields brought Kansas City a legitimate replacement for their last ace, Zach Greinke. What Shields possesses that Greinke did not is a legitimate rotation behind him. In 2010, Greinke’s last with the Royals, both Chen and Hochevar not only made the rotation but were arguably the team’s second and third best starters. In 08-09 the team had Gil Meche, a quality #2, but rounded the rotation out with Hochevar, Kyle Davies, and Brian Bannister. From 04-07 the Royals had only three pitchers post an ERA below 4, and less than half of the clubs’ starters were below 5. Clearly, no rotation from this era stacks up.

Best Rotation- 2009

Greinke, Meche, Hochevar, Bannister, Davies

Combined WAR: 12.6

The Allard Baird Era (pre-Greinke)

We don’t need to spend much time on this era at all. For every breakout performance from Paul Byrd or Darrell May, there were three Chad Durbins to mess up the rotation. Even in the club’s lone season above .500 their rotation was a mess. While May had a career year and posted a WAR of 5.7, the team had 25 starts (and an ERA well north of 7) from the trio of Chris George, Brad Voyles, and Kris Wilson.

Best Rotation- 2003

May, Jose Lima, Runelvys Hernandez, Kyle Snyder, Chris George

Combined WAR: 8.7

The Herk Robinson Era

As much time as I spent loathing Robinson, I can’t deny that he put together some of the best rotations in the last 30+ years. In 1999, all five starters in his rotation had a positive WAR, which doesn’t say much unless you’ve read the last two sections. In ‘96 Kevin Appier, Tim Belcher and Chris Haney all posted a WAR above 2 with 30+ starts. Jose Rosado posted a 3.3 in just 16 starts! Even veterans Mark Gubicza and Doug Linton were above replacement level. 1994 was even better. In a strike shortened season David Cone was incredible (16-5, 2.94 ERA, 6.6 WAR), Appier was his normal steady self (7-6, 3.83 ERA, 4.3 WAR) while Gubicza and Tom Gordon rounded out the top four nicely.  The only fault that can be found with this rotation is that the fifth spot was dreadful with Chris Haney and Bob Milacki combining for an ERA over 7.

Best Rotation- 1994

David Cone, Kevin Appier, Tom Gordon, Mark Gubicza, Bob Milacki

Combined WAR: 15.9

While the current rotation may be challenged to top that performance in ’94, they’ll have to go to a whole new level to match the staff from ’87. In that year Bret Saberhagen, Gubicza, Charlie Leibrandt, Danny Jackson and Bud Black combined for WAR of 23.5! For perspective, let’s look at the career year for each of the current starters:

James Shields (2007) 5.2 WAR

Ervin Santana (2008) 4.8 WAR

Jeremy Guthrie (2010) 4.3 WAR

Wade Davis (2012) 1.4 WAR

Luis Mendoza (2012) 1.4 WAR

That comes out to 17.1, and that’s the best year any of them have ever had. While it’s unlikely that any of the top three match their career year in 2013, I’d say it’s very possible that Davis and/or Mendoza improve upon their 2012 numbers. This will not be the greatest rotation in the history of the Kansas City Royals, but it’s very possibly the best in the past 20 years. If that happens you can expect to hear a lot more from me and my hyperbole.

Listen, I’m as guilty of this as anyone…probably even more so. But the 2012 Kansas City Royals are who we thought they were, almost exactly. They’re three wins away from the team’s best record in four seasons, and seven away from their best in ten. They are young, volatile, and improving. Their offense is developing into a potent force, their bullpen is the strength of the team, and their starting rotation is every bit as hodge podge as we anticipated. While I certainly hoped for, and predicted, much more from this club, they are pretty much exactly where we should have expected them to be. Sure, a 12 game losing streak in April squashed all hope, and a terrible July brought us back to earth, but at the end of the year this club is going to be in the mid-70s in wins. Not bad considering the injuries to starting pitching, Eric Hosmer’s regression, and the abomination that has been Ned Yost as an in-game manager.

I, as my name suggests, drank too much of the Kool Aid in the preseason, and I’m not apologizing for it. For the past 25 years, Royals fans have had little more than the Kool Aid, and we shouldn’t swear it off just because our dreams didn’t come true once again. Instead, I’m taking it a step farther. Instead of telling you what I hope happens this offseason heading into next, I’m going to outline what would be, in my mind, the best ten things that could happen to the Royals this offseason.

10. Ned Yost resigns. Yost loves his hunting and his hunting buddies; maybe just maybe he decides trying to win with both hands tied behind his back isn’t worth it.

9. Jeff Francoeur pulls a Gil Meche. Meche walked away at the age of 32 because he didn’t want to have surgery. Maybe notorious good-guy Frenchy will retire because he can no longer bare the pain he is causing those who cheer for him.

8. Zack Greinke announces he’ll give the Royals a hometown discount, but only if they sign one additional free agent starter. Dayton Moore signs the hurler to a 5 year $95 million contract shortly after…

7. Jeremy Guthrie signs a two year deal worth $12 million. Yes, I’m drinking the Guthrie Kool Aid. The guy loves it here, and Kauffman Stadium is the perfect place for a fly ball pitcher like Guthrie.

6. Ned Yost is fired. No, this isn’t the same as #10, this is much better. This would involve Dayton Moore admitting a mistake and cutting a loss.

5. Terry Francona is hired as the new manager of the Kansas City Royals. Yeah, I’m dreaming…and yeah, they’d have to sign Greinke and Guthrie first.

4. Joakim Soria re-signs with the club and returns to his old self. I’m not sure Soria would even be our closer at this point, but if we’re going to have the bullpen be our strength, let’s go all out.

3. Jeff Francoeur is cut. See 6, only this time in all caps.

2. Oklahoma Joe’s expands to Detroit. While Fielder didn’t experience quite the drop off I expected, he did see his power numbers dip. Give him one taste of Oklahoma Joe’s and he’ll weigh 400 lbs by spring training.

1. David Glass sells the team to the owners of Sporting KC. Yeah, I know Glass said he won’t sell the team. He also said he only wants the team to break even, and he cares about winning. Let’s just hope this was one more lie.

The big boys are coming to our house this year, but that doesn’t mean we’ll be allowed to play with them.

The Royals host the All Star Game this year, and it is a huge event for Kansas City. But the hopes of KC fans that their team would be well represented at home were disappointed.

Ever since the announcement was made that KC would be home to the 2012 All Star Game, the question has been would the Royals have more than one player named to the team?

But a 12-game losing streak, a sluggish start by a few young stars, and injuries conspired to limit the Royals to just one representative.

Billy Butler rightfully was named the Royals’ rep. And he’ll hobnob with baseball royalty at our very own Kauffman Stadium in what is a great exposure of Kansas City. It will be a great economic and cultural event for the city.

But it won’t do much for healing the wounds Royals have taken from the mid-summer classic over the past decade. Three letters describe the slight baseball has dealt the Royals: DNP.

Six of the last ten KC representatives in the midsummer classic never left the bench.

In case you were like most fans who paid almost no notice to whether Royals played or not over the past decade:

2011: Aaron Crow – DNP.
2010: Joakim Soria – DNP.
2007: Gil Meche – DNP.
2006: Mark Redman – DNP.
2003: Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal – DNP.

Having lacked a legitimate “star” for years, it’s been a long time since Royals fans had much reason to care about the All-Star Game. So all the DNPs seem to have gone by without much notice. Lesser players are often forced to wait until late in the games to pinch-hit, or are held out for extra innings. So most casual fans have gone to bed by the time the benches start clearing.

I made the case a year ago that this was no coincidence.

During a 13-year stretch – 1990 to 2002 – when the team was pretty bad, the Royals had just one DNP – Jeff Montgomery in 1996. So based on that fact, it would appear Royals representatives are not getting into the games as frequently as they once did.

And it wasn’t that all the Royals representatives during that period were legitimate stars (see Jose Rosado in 1997 and 1999 and Dean Palmer in 1998).

It all started with what looks like the biggest slap in the face back in 2003. In the one season when the Royals were actually good – leading the Central Division with a 51-41 mark – the Royals sent legit slugger Sweeney and lights-out closer (at the time) McDougal to the game.

And neither played.

Since then, the American League seems to be making no effort to get Royals into the game.

Butler will not record a DNP this year. Most of the DNPs have been logged by pitchers, which isn’t that uncommon. And being as the game is in KC, they will finally make it a priority to get the Royals’ rep in the game.

Butler will play, no doubt. Sadly it will probably be in a pinch-hitting role. He’ll come up for one short at bat, go to the bench, and the Royals’ presence will be barely noticed.

But strangely the slight doesn’t end there.

For once the Royals had a rep who could conceivably participate in the second-biggest event of the All Star Break, the Home Run Derby. The door was open for Butler, and Robinson Cano even said he would invite a Royal.

But this year the Royals will sadly record a different DNP – Did Not Participate in the derby.

Good luck in your All Star appearance, Billy. You deserve it. The Royals deserve it. The city deserves it.

I’m afraid next year we’ll go back to the usual DNP.

I live 149 miles from Kauffman Stadium, but I’m not in Royals territory. I’m a Royals fan in the suburbs of Cardinal Nation, otherwise known as Southwest Missouri. Actually, I’m a fan of two baseball teams. The Kansas City Royals and whoever is playing the St. Louis Cardinals.

You’re in the minority when you’re a Royals fan in Southwest Missouri. Whenever I confess I’m a Royals fan, the usual response is, “The Royals? They haven’t won anything since 1985 and they stole that series! They have a cheap owner! They trade away all their good players!” Except for the cheap owner comment ($55 million for Gil Meche? That’s not being cheap) and the Royals stealing the 1985 World Series, Cardinals fans have been more right than wrong about the Royals for the last ten to fifteen years.

I understand why most people in Southwest Missouri are Cardinal fans. People like to follow a winner, especially a team as successful as the Cardinals. It’s like following a winner makes you a winner, even if you’re not. If you like the Royals, Cardinals fans say, “What’s wrong with you?”

To build a fan base, it helps to have a good radio affiliate. But for the last few years, the Royals Springfield, Missouri affiliate was a 2 watt Bic lighter station called KGMY-AM, whose signal faded outside Springfield at night. In 2011, the Royals finally got a Springfield affiliate with a good signal, KWTO-AM. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been on KTXR-FM, a 100,000 watt blowtorch, year after year. It’s hard for the Royals to build a fan base when their last Springfield radio affiliate had the signal strength of a pirate radio station.

Having the Cardinals AA affiliate in Springfield, Missouri doesn’t help either. When Springfield was in the running for a AA baseball team, I held slim hopes the Royals AA affiliate in Wichita would move to Springfield. But no, it was the Cardinals. A few years later, the Wichita Wranglers moved to Northwest Arkansas and became the Naturals. So instead of the Royals trying to claim some stake in Southwest Missouri and show the potential bright future of the Royals, they decide to grow their fan base in Northwest Arkansas. Thanks, Royals. You’ve just created another generation of Cardinals fans in Southwest Missouri.

And these Cardinals fans wear and have all sorts of St. Louis and Springfield Cardinals paraphernalia. Go to any Wal-Mart in the area and you’ll see all sorts of St. Louis and Springfield Cardinals gear (no giveaways of Pujols gear yet), but little or no Royals gear, save a hat or two. Realize the owner of the Kansas City Royals was the CEO of Wal-Mart. And Wal-Mart doesn’t carry Royals gear in their stores that are closer to Kansas City than St. Louis. But I’d rather have an opossum on my head than wear any Cardinals gear.

Southwest Missouri used to have more Royals fans when the Royals were good. And that’s been a while. Since 1985, the Royals have had no playoff appearances and 19 losing seasons. The last winning season was in 2003, and before that, the last winning season was the 1994 strike shortened season.

Since 1985, the Cardinals have been to the playoffs ten seasons, won four National League pennants and won two World Series championships. They only had eight losing seasons, the last one in 2007.

The success of the Cardinals and the failure of the Royals have covered Southwest Missouri in a deep sea of Cardinal red. The only Royals fans you see bobbing around Southwest Missouri are the fans of the glory days, or Kansas City transplants who still have some loyalty to a team who has let them down year after year. Meanwhile, some of the self-appointed Best Fans in Baseball crow about the Cardinals superiority. What makes it worse is they’re right. And I’ve heard it for years.

But the Royals could win back Southwest Missouri, or at least claim part of it. How? One, the Royals need to start winning, and soon. Two, the Cardinals need to lose their charmed status and start losing like the Royals have since 1986. A tall order on both counts.

You don’t think the Cardinals are charmed? Take Albert Pujols. The Cardinals drafted Pujols in the thirteenth round and he became one the best players in the game. If the Royals had drafted Pujols, he probably wouldn’t have made it out of AA.

Then there’s the 2011 season. The Braves end of season collapse allowed the Cardinals to win a wild card playoff spot. No worries, the Phillies would beat them in the NLDS. Ok, maybe not. All right, the Brewers would beat them in the NLCS. Ok, maybe not. No problem, the Texas Rangers would beat them in the World Series. Then came Game Six.

The Cardinals won Game Six with a walk off home run in the bottom of the 11th inning by David Freese. David Freese? The Cardinals were so charmed in that game, Rontrez Johnson could have hit the walk off home run, won the World Series MVP and got to drive off in the 2012 Carbon Flash Metallic Grand Sport Corvette Chevrolet gave away. The Rangers were doomed after Game Six. I knew then the Cardinals would win the World Series, even if they fielded a team of 25 house cats for Game Seven. And the self-appointed Best Fans in Baseball celebrated. I sulked, waiting for 2012.

Could the Royals be better in 2012? The Royals have a group of young players who seem to have more upside than the hopefuls of the last ten to fifteen years. Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar are becoming the players I hoped they would be. The Royals have a legitimate potential superstar in Eric Hosmer, who with his beard looks like an Amish warrior in a Royals uniform. And don’t forget Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Greg Holland and Felipe Paulino, among others. And there’s more prospects in the Royals farm system who have a better chance to succeed than to flame out.

And what of the Cardinals? Tony LaRussa retired, being replaced by first time manager Mike Matheny. Albert Pujols bolted to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of North America of the Western Hemisphere of Earth of the Solar System of the Milky Way Galaxy of the Universe (That’s not the team’s official name, but it should be) for ten years and 254 million dollars. Could the Cardinals charmed run be coming to an end and they lose 100 games, the first time since 1908? Or will they field 25 house cats and win another World Series title in 2012?

I’d like to see the Royals do better than the Cardinals in 2012. But until that happens, all I can do is hope, surrounded by a sea of Cardinal red.

At least a dozen people will be glued to their TV sets on Tuesday night to see if Aaron Crow gets into the All-Star Game as a pitcher for the American League team.

Don’t hold your breath.

The first ever Royal in an All-Star Game – catcher Ellie Rodriguez – recorded just one statistic in the 1969 exhibition. DNP. Disappointing for the fledgling franchise. But the team would soon be well represented by stars like Amos Otis, Cookie Rojas and John Mayberry, who made significant contributions in the game in the early 1970s.

Then came George Brett, Frank White and Hal McRae, and the Royals were all over the All-Star field.

But it seems fitting looking back that the first Royal All-Star recorded a DNP, because that appears to be a new trend.

Five of the last nine KC “representatives” in the midsummer classic never left the bench.

2010: Joakim Soria – DNP. 2007: Gil Meche – DNP. 2006: Mark Redman – DNP. 2003: Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal – DNP.

Having lacked a legitimate “star” for years, it’s been a long time since Royals fans had much reason to care about the All-Star Game. So all the DNPs seem to have gone by without much notice. Lesser players are often forced to wait until late in the games to pinch-hit, or are held out for extra innings. So most casual fans have gone to bed by the time the benches start clearing.

But it would seem that American League managers haven’t felt compelled to get the KC representatives into the games in recent years.

Is there a conspiracy here, is this just a coincidence, or is it a consequence of how the All-Star Game is played?

One could argue that while every team is allotted a representative to the roster, there is no guarantee that players from every team should play. Some players may just not be deemed worthy of participation.

One could make that argument particularly in the case of Redman, who was probably saved from embarrassment. Imagine the PA announcer introducing the Royals rep in 2006:

“Now entering the game, your Kansas City Royals All-Star, with a 5-4 record and a 5.27 ERA…”

It’s possible that because the Royals tend to be represented by pitchers, there is more of a likelihood that their rep won’t get in the game. Every year an average of 8.5 pitchers don’t play. (This is based on the past decade. For more statistics on pitcher DNPs, see below.)

But it could also be that no one feels compelled to insert into the game the representatives of a lack-luster franchise in fly-over territory. After all, five DNPs in eight years seems high if it is just a coincidence.

During a 13-year stretch – 1990 to 2002 – when the team was pretty bad, the Royals had just one DNP – Jeff Montgomery in 1996. So based on that fact, it would appear Royals representatives are not getting into the games as frequently as they once did.

And it wasn’t that all the Royals representatives were legitimate stars (see Jose Rosado in 1997 and 1999 and Dean Palmer in 1998).

It all started with what looks like the biggest slap in the face back in 2003. In the one season when the Royals were actually good – leading the Central Division with a 51-41 mark – the Royals sent legit slugger Sweeney and lights-out closer (at the time) McDougal to the game.

Neither played.

In defense of Mike Scioscia, the AL manager that year, seven other AL guys didn’t play either. But to keep two guys from the same team out seemed a bit much.

Could it be that, now that the home field in the World Series is determined by the midsummer classic, more emphasis is placed on winning than on getting all the players into the game?

That may provide some motivation to the games’ managers, but it certainly doesn’t seem to be affecting the leagues teams or its star players. Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia felt it was more important to pitch in their teams’ last game before the break than to play in the exhibition. And Derek Jeter, healthy enough to go 5 for 5 last Saturday, isn’t feeling up to putting in a couple of innings.

No, winning doesn’t seem to be that big of a deal.

While no one outside of Topeka probably cares if Aaron Crow plays or not, it will most likely seem more important next year when the All-Star Game comes to Kauffman Stadium. Most likely the league will feel compelled to try to get a position player from KC into the game for a couple of innings.

For the record, when the game was last played in KC in 1973, Otis and Mayberry were in the starting lineup, with Rojas coming off the bench. As a group, they came to bat a total of 6 times in the game.

But you have to go all the way back to 2000, when Jermaine Dye started the game to find a Royal position player that recorded significant time in the field in an All-Star Game. So we’ll see if Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer or some other position player can finally see some time at a position in next years’ game.

Congrats, Aaron Crow. No matter what everyone says, you are an All-Star. I hope you get a chance to show it on the field.

But if you don’t get in the game, I doubt anyone will speak out in your defense. After all, you’re a Royal. Based on the last eight years, it appears no one cares whether you play or not.

Pitcher DNPs:

In the past decade, 264 pitchers were named to All-Star squads, with a high of 34 last season and a low of 22 in 2001.

178 pitched in the games, with a high of 23 in 2008 and a low of 15 in 2003 and 2006.

The lowest number of DNPs among pitchers came in 2008 with 2. The highest number came in 2010 with 15.

The Royals were often referred to as “the model for expansion teams” during their first decade of existence. But during the later part of the 1990s they could serve as the model for how not to build a franchise.

Just about the time the team started losing traction on the big league level, it also started a series of whiffs with its first round draft choices. The team was accused of drafting players of lesser talent, particularly collegiate pitchers, to avoid large signing bonuses.

Whatever they were doing, it wasn’t working.

The culmination of the futility seemed to be 2001, when KC tapped two phenomenal high school talents with their first two picks – players who barely saw the field as professionals. Colt Griffin and Roscoe Crosby cost the team a fortune and epitomized the Royals’ futility of the era.

That devastating swing and miss capped a six-year era of utter failure with high draft picks. By 2002, the talent-less big league team had absolutely nothing in the farm system to build upon.

Here is a five-year rundown of first round picks by the Royals from 1996 to 2000 and who they could have had instead (you might want to look away, rather than consider the players the Royals passed on):

1996 – Dee Brown #14

Brown hung around the club for nine years, making frequent trips between KC and Omaha. He hit just .233 with 14 homers when far more than was expected. Compared to the list of first-rounders that followed, however, Brown looks like an all-star.

The Royals could have drafted Eric Milton, Jake Westbrook or Gil Meche instead of Brown.

1997 – Dan Reichert #7

Drafted from Pacific University, Reichert worked as a starter and out of the bullpen during four seasons in KC, finishing with a 21-25 record and an ERA of 5.55.

Instead of Reichert, the Royals could have drafted Michael Cuddyer, Jon Garland, Lance Berkman or Jason Werth.

1998 – Jeff Austin #4, Matt Burch #30, Chris George #31 (supplemental)

Taken from Stanford University, Austin pitched in just 31 games as a Royal during 2001 and 2002, all in relief.

Burch was even worse. Drafted from Virginia Commonwealth, he never reached the big leagues, and the Royals gave up on him in 2003.

George was drafted out of high school. He made it to the bigs by age 21, but couldn’t take advantage of the many opportunities given to him. From 2001 to 2004 he posted a record of 14-20, almost entirely as a starter, with an ERA of 6.48.

Rather than Austin, the Royals could have taken J.D. Drew, Austin Kerns, Carlos Pena, Brad Lidge or C.C. Sabathia. Instead of Burch or George, they could have drafted Adam Dunn or Brandon Inge.

1999 – Kyle Snyder #7, Mike MacDougal #25, Jay Gehrke #32 (supplemental) Jimmy Gobble #43 (supplemental)

Snyder pitched in college for North Carolina. He didn’t reach the big leagues until age 25, where he went 2-9 over parts of three seasons with the Royals. Snyder did get a second shot with the Red Sox and actually contributed to their bullpen in their World Series run of 2007.

MacDougal, a Wake Forest product, was star-crossed from day one. His success was derailed by freakish incidents. He was drilled in the head by a stray bat in 2001. Then a mysterious sickness in 2004 caused him to lose a ton of weight and the heat off his fastball. He tore up the league for the first half of 2003 and was named an All-Star. But he’s bounced around the minors ever since the Royals gave up on him in 2006.

The Pepperdine product Gehrke never made it above A-ball in three seasons.

Gobble was a high school draftee that pitched very well in the minors. He made it to the big club by age 21 and was a starter in 2003 when the Royals posted a winning season. He pitched primarily out of the bullpen during his six seasons in KC, with mild success.

Instead of Snyder, the Royals could have had Barry Zito or Ben Sheets. Instead of the other three first rounders, the team could have chosen three of the following: Chris Duncan, Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Ryan Ludwick, or John Lackey.

2000 – Mike Stodolka #4

Stodolka’s is a sad story. Drafted out of high school, he struggled with arm issues for six seasons. Finally, at 24 he converted to first base. He hit well in three minor league seasons, but was trapped behind the logjam of Ryan Shealy, Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihue in the minors from 2006 to 2008.

The Royals could have drafted Chase Utley or Adam Wainright instead of Stodolka.

While it would appear the Royals were doing something (everything?) wrong during this five year period, it’s unfortunate that the Royals have traditionally done little with high draft picks. Even in their best years, most of the players they were drafting didn’t contribute to the success. (Hugh Walker – 1988, Tony Bridges – 1986, Dave Leeper – 1981, Frank Wills – 1980, Ben Grzybek – 1976. Do those names ring a bell with anyone?)

The results of these drafts serve as a cautionary tale in 2011. Nearly every player mentioned above was ranked among the top prospects by scouting services while in the Royals system.

Before we start sizing Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas for World Series rings, we better recognize what it takes to build a champion. The Royals weren’t the only team drafting busts during that five-year period. There are no guarantees that the current crop of Royals farm hands, currently rated #1 by those same scouting services, won’t be washouts, flops and injury casualties as well.

The Royals were involved in four close games this week (won by two runs or less) and were able to come out on top in two of them. What this translates to me is that the pitching, which was heavily in question since the off-season with the trading of Zack Greinke, Gil Meche retiring and a handful or green bullpen candidates, has been doing their job of keeping the games within reach for the offense to step up and win the game.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

However, it has been hit or miss this week when it comes crunch time for the Royals offense. The Royals have stranded 46 runners in the first six games of the week, including twenty in the last two games against Cleveland. The Royals cannot afford to leave a small village of base runners every single night.

It’s not all bad news though for the Royals offense. They have four every day lineup players batting at or over .329 after Friday nights contest. These four players also make up the 3-6 in the lineup, which you would expect your best hitters to be. However, Getz the leadoff hitter needs to ramp it up a notch after this week. He only has two hits this week, which took his average from a mediocre .269 down to .239 after Friday’s contest. As a team the Royals are currently tied for first in the American league in batting average (.269), rank second in on base percentage (.340) and first in stolen bases with 26.

The pitching and defense have both moved up a few slots in terms of performance related stats this week as well. No longer at the bottom or near it, they are in the middle of the pack in the American League. With strong consistent efforts by the likes of Alex Gordon (leads A.L. outfielders in assists) and the rest of the outfield, the defense will continue to progress and get better as the season goes on. The catchers, who are often unsung heroes of the defense, have stepped up very well this month. They have thrown out six runners and only allowed ten stolen bases, which is good enough to be in the top five in both categories.

The Royals have a tough week ahead against the defending American League champions (Rangers) before getting a day off, and facing off against Cleveland again for a three game set. Then they come back home to face the Twins next weekend. A tough stretch of games, but if the Royals can find a way to get some timely hits over the next five or six games, they may be at the top of the division by next weekend.

A Royal Review

Opening up at home after a good spring training is just the thing this young ball club needed after showing off to mainly Arizona natives and a handful or reporters. A chance to show off their energy that made this writer intrigued for the first time in awhile.

I was extremely skeptical of what this team would look like after seeing the off-season transactions that took place. Two all-star caliber players off to new teams, a veteran taking one for the team (good job Gil) and lots of young, inexperienced but very energetic and enthused players.

Opening Day, the bats were as cool as the weather. The Royals went scoreless until late in the game and came up short in the end. However, the defense committed three errors, which was a problem reminiscent of last season. Any time you commit an error, it gives you an extra out and the Royals gave a whole extra inning to the Angels on Thursday.

Friday night was a different story however. The game was tight from start to finish despite the both defenses making what could have been costly errors but did not come back to haunt either team. However, in the bottom of the ninth Kila Ka’aihue blasted a ball over the right field wall for the game winning home run.

Coming Up

The Royals will finish their four game series with the Angels with a game on Saturday and Sunday. It may also be noted that there will be a special double header following Saturday’s game featuring the Storm Chasers and the Naturals, the Royals AAA and AA affiliates, respectively.

The Royals then have Monday off as they prepare to host the Chicago White Sox for a quick two game series. After that series, the Royals will have another day off before having a weekend series against another central division foe, the Detroit Tigers.

The Royals struggled against both of these teams last year. Accumulating a below par 16-20 combined record against these teams last year, the Royals look to improve upon those numbers. If they are going to compete this year, they are going to have to be able to consistently play well against division opponents.

Having these two days off this coming week will keep the Royals well rested before hitting a string of thirteen straight playing days beginning on April 12. The good news is that eight of those thirteen games are at home and against teams that finished off last season in just as bad shape as the Royals did (Cleveland and Seattle). However, before the Royals can get to these two teams, the Royals have to go to Detroit and then to Minnesota.

Solid pitching, timely hitting and executing on defense are the ways to win ball games. If the Royals can do that, they can compete with anyone.

Talking about Albert Pujols is like treading on sacred ground, so I’m going to avoid the other thoughts that come to mind when you think of the Cardinals slugger – thoughts about his Christian image, his approach to contract negotiations, how his numbers just seem too good to not be steriod aided, etc.

Instead I’ll limit my commentary to this: Pujols belongs in St. Louis for the remainder of his career, and he definitely does NOT belong in Kansas City.

There have been ruminations that KC might be a good spot for Pujols to land. The reasons for such speculation? 1) He’s sort of a native of the city (he graduated from Fort Osage High School in 1998 after moving there from New York in 1996), 2) the Royals have lots of money to spend, having just cut Gil Meche and Zack Greinke off the books and chronically under-spending, and 3) the thought that Pujols could anchor a lineup of budding young stars.

Now I don’t speak for all Royals fans, but I for one feel this would be a disastrous idea for everyone involved. I am under no such delusion that the Royals are about to start spending money willy-nilly, but for the sake of argument, I say Prince Albert has no business wearing the Royal Blue. My reasoning may not be compelling to a big league GM, but here’s my case:

1) Pujols, who turned 31 in January, is about to experience a natural decline in production. There are many studies out there that clearly indicate that beyond the age of 30, the average baseball player’s production declines rapidly. You can search for your own results, but one such study put it this way:

The age curve in general suggests that overall offensive performance peaks at a young age. Very few individuals have a peak age of more than 32 (only 8 out of the top 50 offensive players)… the peak age for home run hitting was 29 and the peak age for batting was 27. It seems that in terms of offensive player performance, any benefit gained by experience is offset by the deteriorating effects of age. (Michael R. Smith, Brigham Young University, 2006)

The only player of the top 100 studied by Smith that defied this curve to a significant degree was, you guessed it, Barry Bonds. Bonds’ arc continued upwards into his late 30s while everyone else declined. Wonder why?

Pujols is by no means average. He’s one of the greatest of all time. But he’s also proclaimed to be steroid-free. If that’s true, one would assume his career will follow the trend of Ruth, Gehrig, Musial, Williams, and every other elite slugger you care to study. If he follows the trend of Bonds… well then, you draw your own conclusion.

2) I don’t want to stir up rumors, but there is unfortunately a bit of uncertainty about Pujols’ true age. Those who saw him play in his amateur days complained that he just looked too mature physically to be a high schooler. That has been an issue with natives of the Dominican Republic. Not to stir the pot to much, but here’s a quote from the Independence Examiner’s Bill Althaus from 2001, before Pujols debuted in St. Louis:

The first time I saw Albert Pujols, I thought to myself, ‘What’s that man doing out there with those kids?’ . . . He had a Mark McGwire body, and he was a junior in high school. When he hit the ball, it made a sound that high school players aren’t supposed to make.

If Pujols isn’t truly 31 it doesn’t make him a bad person. But based on the age/decline projections, it might make him a bad investment.

3) Eric Hosmer. Billy Butler. Kila Ka’aihue. The Royals have a budding superstar, an established big league hitter, and a youngster with potential, all jockying for the first base job. The Royals have no need to spend $30 million a year on a first baseman/DH when they have so many other needs.

4) My favorite reason of all, and I’m not even a Cardinals fan: it would be nice if the greatest player of the current era spent his entire career in one city. I grew up in the days when you looked at the back of a baseball card and saw that great players played for one team their entire career. Or at least it seemed they did. It is a true pleasure to look back on George Brett’s career and not have to remember seeing him bat .220 in a Florida Marlins uniform. He was loyal to one team, they were loyal to him, and he knew when to walk away.

I can only imagine that Cardinals fans would like to say the same about Pujols. He’s been great for the city of St. Louis, and St. Louis has been great for him. For the sake of the great game of baseball, I hope he stays.

I also hope another I-70 Series is just a couple of years away, and that when it happens, manning first base for the Cardinals is none other than Prince Albert.

Photo by Minda Haas

Four years ago, Gil Meche took a mildly successful six year career for the Seattle Mariners and turned it into a five year, $55 million contract with the Kansas City Royals. Some people wondered what the team was thinking. Others thought they made the steal of the off-season. Meche just settled in and pitched.

Over the course of the four years with the Royals, Meche would start three opening days and settle in to his role as the leader of this pitching group, despite being overshadowed at times by his rotation mate Zack Grienke.

It was immediately apparent as to why the Roylas brought Meche in. He would lead the American League in games started for the first two years in Royals blue. It was a testament to his work ethic and determination. Over the first three years with the team, Meche would compile a 29-34 record, a 4.12 earned run average, seven strikeouts per nine innings and an impressive 555 innings pitched.

The end of 2009 would show the wear and tear on an arm of a pitcher that had been so reliable. He would hit the disabled list and never quite fully recover. In the process, when he did return to the field in 2010, it was a in a limited role as a reliever for the club. Doing everything he could to contribute and live up to his end of the contract, Meche attempted to pitch through the pain and struggled, to say the least.

On January 18, 2011, Meche did something few ballplayers would ever consider. He announced, with one year and $12 million left on his contract, that he was retiring from baseball. It had come down to surgery in order to continue to play and he did not feel that his life was at a point for that to be a plausible option. The official press release stated:

After a lot of thinking and prioritizing of issues in my life I have decided to retire from baseball. As a competitor my entire life this is the hardest decision that I’ve ever faced, but it’s not fair to me, my family or the Kansas City Royals that I attempt to pitch anymore. I came into this game as a starting pitcher and unfortunately my health, more accurately, my shoulder, has deteriorated to the point where surgery would be the only option and at this stage of my life I would prefer to call it a career rather than to attempt to pitch in relief for the final year of my contract. I can’t thank the Kansas City Royals and their fans enough for my four seasons there and if I have any regret, it’s that we weren’t able to accomplish on the field what the goal was when I signed there.

Not many professional athletes would walk away from the game and competition they love, holding their head high, and leaving money “on the table”. Meche has shown a competitive spirit, a passion for the game, and a respect for the integrity of the game that is unparalleled.

Photo by Minda Haas

Friend of I-70 Baseball and Royals podcaster Nick Scott has asked via Twitter that a movement be started to see Gil Meche throw out the first pitch for Opening Day in 2011.

I say let Gil Meche throw out the ceremonial first pitch on opening day. #gilforOD

January 18, 2011 12:27 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@brokenbatsingle

Nick Scott

Meche is a respectable player in the midst of a greedy person’s game. The money that is now available to the Royals could go a long way in solidifying other positions on the field. His number 55 will not be retired, he won’t be considered for even the Royals Hall Of Fame, but he has shown that he is one of the few ball players that deserves the title of “role model”.

Cover photo courtesy of Minda Haas.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.