Leave it to THIS Cardinal team to leave the season hanging in the balance with only two games remaining. 160 down, 2 to go and still multiple scenarios where the Cardinals make the playoffs. Yet as I sit here writing this with the Braves seemingly giving the Wild Card to the Cardinals they trail 100 loss Houston 0-5 in the 3^rd inning. Why, because this team has a flair for the dramatic.

Since Ryan Franklin started the blown save parade eight games into the season the Cardinals have found a way to make sure things not so sure, turn wins into losses and inspire hope only to douse out the passionate burning flames of Cardinal Nation with their underachieving play. Franklin gave way to Boggs, who gave way to Sanchez who gave way to Salas who gave way to Motte who all totaled 26 blown saves.

Still the Cardinals sit one game out of the playoffs. After losing 13 games in their opponents last at bat the Cardinals may still host a playoff game. A team that has played in 49 one run games, losing 23 games by another 21 in extra innings, losing 13 could still be playing in October. Nothing is as it seems with the 2011 Cardinals. Not winning, not losing.

Proving my point the Cardinals have now pulled to within one run…down 4-5 in the 4^th inning. A team that was written off by all. If you’re one of the 3 people alive who thought the at 10.5 games out they still had a chance well then good for you…and you’re lying.

After losing nine of fourteen between August 13^th and 27^th, the Cardinals began would could end up as the greatest comeback in MLB history. Erasing a 10.5 game deficit to win the Wild Card by winning 19 or their next 28.

Even is this game the back and forth is almost too much to take. 0-5 became 5-5 just as quick and even quicker again became 5-6. Do the Cardinals not like momentum on their side? Our starting pitching adds to the drama in their own way by not even getting though seven innings combine through two games in Houston. Again, against a 100 loss team.

As a result Tony LaRussa must puzzle together his bullpen to find another six innings of availability. Six innings out of a bullpen that is more than taxed…mostly due to TLR’s insistence on tinkering within every game, playing the match-ups to a fault and going to the Motte well perhaps once too often.

Regardless of Tuesday’s result the Cardinals will still have a chance to force a one game playoff for the Wild Card by winning on Wednesday. Who else would start such a game but, yep…Chris Carpenter.

As I save this the Cardinals have tied it at six with two outs in the 7th…If only I were making this stuff up I could have a great career writing fiction. But fact is this is the reality of the 2011 Cardinal season.

These are just my thoughts…keep on reading and you’ll get up to speed.

Derek is on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze and also writes for the Rams at RamsHerd.com

Also on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/SportsByWeeze

Entering the bottom of the ninth inning on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh, Fernando Salas was called on to protect a slim one run lead. He had been successful on 22 of 25 chances so far, and the Cardinals really needed him to convert number 23. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Salas gave up a solo home run for his fourth blown save of the year. Ironically, the Cardinals would lose the game two innings later when newly acquired Arthur Rhodes also gave up a solo home run.

Now trailing the Milwaukee Brewers by 7 games with just 39 left to play, it is only natural to start asking questions about how this can happen. When you do, one statistic screams for attention – this game was the 21st blown save of the year for the Cardinals bullpen. If the Cardinals had converted just half of those into wins, they would have a 1 1/2 game lead over the Brewers, rather than the 7 game deficit they now face.

Lets take a closer look at these blown saves, and see what we can learn.

When you look at how the blown saves are distributed, Fernando Salas is suddenly looking like a pretty reliable closer. Throw in the fact that he is also 3 for 3 in holds, and we might need to look elsewhere for those extra 10 wins.

So, how does Fernando Salas stack up to other closers in Cardinals history – and what about all those blown saves ?

Whitey Herzog (1982-1989)

Looking at bullpen save data too much before the Whitey Herzog era doesn’t make a lot of sense. Relief pitchers were used much differently than they are today. Even in the early parts of Herzog’s time, closers were routinely called on for multiple inning saves. Bruce Sutter averaged nearly 2 innings per appearance for much of his time in St. Louis. By the time Todd Worrell had taken over, that number was closer to 1 1/2 innings per appearance.

Let’s take a look at the bullpen efficiency during Whitey Herzog’s time as manager.

The first thing to notice is that successful teams (1982, 1985, 1987) sure seem to have a lot of save opportunities. More than that, they also convert a high percentage of them into wins. That doesn’t bode terribly well for the 2011 group, does it ?

Another interesting item are the number of blown saves from Bruce Sutter and Todd Worrell, two of the most highly regarded relievers in Cardinals history. Even in good years, you could still expect for each of them to fail to convert around 10 saves. Fernando Salas’ 22 out of 26 save opportunities (85%) this year is looking better all the time.

Joe Torre (1990-1995)

The Joe Torre era, including the transitional year when Whitey Herzog resigned, is among some of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. One look at the bullpen save rates will tell you all you need to know about them, and why they were so frustrating.

Lee Smith

Oh, the save opportunities were there, in abundance. And how good was Lee Smith ?

If it wasn’t Lee Smith, what were the problems during the Torre years ? The games that Lee Smith didn’t get in. It’s as simple as that.

By the time of the Big Man, the closer was a single inning reliever, and used nearly every time there was a save opportunity. And Smith was a machine, converting at a rate that often approached 90%. If you subtract his appearances from the totals, the other relievers were about 50/50 when taking the ball in the late innings.

But even that doesn’t account for the dismal performance in the era. It was those other games that were not save opportunties. Maybe if Torre had a more productive offense, or didn’t leave pitchers like Jose DeLeon in one inning too long, he might have had some greater success than he did.
Tony La Russa (1996-present)

16 years of the Tony La Russa era are hard to distill down into a single metric, but that doesn’t mean we can’t try.

The two best seasons under La Russa (2004-2005) have some of the highest save chances combined with the fewest failures. That would seem to be a good recipe for a championship club. One of those teams went to the World Series, and the other got as far as a legendary Albert Pujols home run off Brad Lidge before falling just short of another trip to the fall classic.

We can thank Jason Isringhausen for a lot of that success, but at the same time we should also praise his supporting cast. When other relievers were called on to make saves, they didn’t disappoint. Even in 2006, when the bullpen efficiency was beginning to trend the wrong direction, they were good enough to win it all.

But there is some bad news in the numbers as well. You can find quite a few seasons with 30 or more blown saves – far too many to have any success. And this brings us back to Fernando Salas because the 2011 team was on a pace to dwarf all of those teams with a new dubious record, all to their own. That is until Salas took over, perhaps aided by an untimely injury to Eduardo Sanchez. The kid that we saw saving games with an almost robotic consistency in Memphis is learning how to do the same thing in the big leagues.

Is Fernando Salas a closer ? Absolutely.

Fernando Salas is not the problem with the 2011 Cardinals. The problem is the young man not getting enough save chances. And a big part of that was the manager being too slow to turn the late innings over to the young reliever. If Salas had been the closer on opening day, and assuming his save percentage would remain the same, the Cardinals might have 13 more wins than they do right now, and the Brewers fans would be the ones heading for the ledge.

One last observation, before it gets forgotten. Until Ryan Franklin’s struggles in 2011, he had been an extremely effective closer. Like Salas in 2011, he wasn’t the problem for the 2009-2010 Cardinals. It was too few opportunities because the team had fallen behind and failed to rally late in games. Ryan Franklin had been a very good closer on a team that should have played better than it did.

Bob Netherton covers Cardinals history for i70baseball.com and writes at On the Outside Corner. You may follow Bob on Twitter here or on Facebook here.

It just might be time to start thinking about the 2012 season. Though Monday’s loss could easily be shrugged off as “just one game,” the Cardinals have run out of time for that type of talk.

Reality check, Cardinal Nation: The Milwaukee Brewers are going to the playoffs. The Red Birds are 6 games out of 1^st place with 40 games to go. Though St. Louis plays Milwaukee 6 more times, they’d be lucky just to split vs a team they’ve beaten only 4 times out of 12 this year. Other than those games against the Cardinals, the Brewers play a team with a winning record just 4 times in its other 34 games. Forget about the division, it’s over.

The good news is… the Atlanta Braves are still within reach. At least they were before Monday night’s unfortunate turn of events. Heading into the week, the Cardinals were only 5 games out of the wildcard spot with the Pirates and Cubs awaiting them in their next 6 games. Atlanta, meanwhile, is hosting the defending World Series Champion Giants and the 1^st place Diamondbacks. This week is the Cardinals’ last real chance to close the gap and make a serious run. If the Cardinals go 5-1…and the Braves go, say… 2-5… we’re talking about a 1.5 game deficit with 5 weeks to go and a 3 game home stand with the Braves at Busch in September.

But unfortunately, the glass is now half empty.

The Cardinals just got done getting whipped by a Pittsburgh team that is 3-16 over the past three weeks. Three wins in 19 games. Yes, that is the team that just drubbed the Cardinals 6-2 at PNC Park. To add insult to injury, the Braves rallied late to overcome a 4-2 deficit against the Giants, and the Brewers won AGAIN.

In the wake of the two recent series against Milwaukee, the talk amongst Cardinals fans has been geared toward the “next two” series against the Brew Crew.

So here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedules for the Cardinals, Brewers, and Braves:

St. Louis: 40 games left, 13 vs teams with winning records, 9 vs worst 2 teams in NL

Milwaukee: 40 games left, 10 vs teams with winning records, 8 vs worst 2 teams in NL

Atlanta: 40 games left, 15 vs teams with winning records, 4 vs worst 2 teams in NL

That pretty clearly illustrates why the Brewers have the division in the bag and the Braves are still somewhat catchable. Atlanta on average will be facing the equivalent of a 62 win team every night; Milwaukee will be playing just a 58 win team every night.

If you’re wondering, the Cardinals will play the equivalent of a 60-win team from here on out… but that really doesn’t matter.

Their biggest obstacle is themselves.

Badly leaking oil, the Cardinal playoff bus limps into Houston for a three-game set.

It is almost infamous now. Sweep the Reds, take a one game lead. Drop five of 8 at home. Take to the road, against two of the worst teams in the NL, drop 4 of 6. Turn that one game lead into a 4 game deficit in the division, and a two game deficit in the Wild Card race, with 34 games to go. If the Cardinals have any hope of making the post-season they must turn it around now.

Current Snapshot

St Louis - 69-58, 2nd place NL Central, 4 games behind Cincinnati. The one thing St Louis has going for it right now is it’s only 3 games back of Cincinnati on the loss side. Well, that and Albert Pujols.

Houston – 58-70, 4th place NL Central, 15 games behind Cincinnati. Houston also sits 13 back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the wild card, meaning they are playing out the string. Houston is 22-17 since the All-Star Break; St Louis is only a half-game better.

Probable Pitching Match-ups

30 August – Jake Westbrook (1-2, 2.57 xFIP) vs JA Happ (3-2, 4.90 xFIP). All statistics for these two are since they were traded to their current teams. Happ has never personally beaten the Cardinals, but his teams are 1-2 when he starts against them. JA has faced St Louis since becoming an Astro, back on 4 August; he did not get out of the second inning, allowing 7 runs. The Cardinals as a team have a .991 OPS when facing Happ, albeit it in only 41 plate appearances. Some of the more gaudy numbers belong to Albert Pujols (1.768; 4-7, 2B, HR), Matt Holliday (1.500; 3-4), and Skip Schumaker (1.167; 1-3, 2B).

Jake Westbrook has really pitched well since moving to St Louis – .640 OPS against, .295 BABIP, 31 K in 31 innings. Whatever reasons one may believe on why the Cardinals have slumped so badly in August, Westbrook should not be one of them. He went six innings on August 2 against the Astros, allowed only 2 runs, and did not figure in the decision. Westbrook has held the current crop of Astros in check (.738 OPS in 64 PA). Carlos Lee has far and away the most success off him (1.035 OPS; 13-32, 3 2B, HR).

31 August – Chris Carpenter (14-4, 3.81 xFIP) vs Wandy Rodriguez (10-12, 3.76 xFIP). Ace #1A for St Louis against the undisputed ace of the Astros. Rodriguez may be more famous in Cardinal circles for his ability to hold Pujols in check, but he is a legitimate ace, and since the All-Star Break he’s pitched like one. He has been nasty since 19 July (1.82 ERA, .602 OPS, .286 BABIP, 56 K in 54 IP). Take away the 5 ER he allowed in that 19 July start and he’s been Gibson-like in the second half. Yet the Astros have lost half of his starts since the Break. The Cardinals have faced Rodriguez three times in 2010, beating him on 12 Apr and 11 July, losing to him on 12 May.

Current Cardinals have put up a .631 OPS against him in 230 PA. Leading the way is Matt Holliday (1.126; 8-26, 2B, 3B, 3 HR). Randy Winn is the only other Cardinal with an OPS over .800, and that’s because he is 2 for 4 against Wandy.

Carpenter is 7-4 career against Houston. He’s 1-1 this season, beating the Astros on 13 May and losing to them on 4 August. Houston has logged a .539 OPS when he pitches (126 PA). He and Wandy Rodriguez have faced each other only once, back in 2009 at Busch. Carpenter got the win, Rodriguez a no decision.

1 September – Jeff Suppan (1-4, 5.14 xFIP) vs Nelson Figueroa (1-1, 3.89 xFIP). Again, these statistics are since each pitcher joined his current team. Figueroa was claimed via waivers from Philadelphia on 21 July. He’s pitched pretty OK since joining the Astros, joining their rotation on 17 August after Houston sent Wesley Wright back to AAA. Figueroa features a fastball, slider, and curveball. His fastball is his best pitch, with his curve and slider being slightly below average.

Figueroa has not started a game against St Louis since 2004, when he was a Pirate. He has pitched twice out of the Astro bullpen against St Louis, getting credited with the win on 2 August. Pedro Feliz is 5 for 9 with a double off him, and represents the most success by a Cardinal against Figueroa.

Jeff Suppan makes his triumphant return to the rotation, starting his first game since 31 July, after dealing with an extended DL stint. He has not had much career success against Houston (3-8 overall), and lost his lone Cardinal start against them on 10 July. Multiple Astros have teed off on him (.952 OPS in 167 PA), led by Geoff Blum (1.474 OPS: 15-28, 4 2B, 2 HR) and Hunter Pence (1.274 OPS; 5-15, 2B, 2 HR). This might be a long afternoon.

Prognosis

After I submitted my last 3 Cardinal previews the Cardinal rotation has changed. Let us hope this series will not make me 4 for 4. On paper, and based on recent performance, the Cardinals have the advantage on Friday, Saturday is a wash and slightly favors the Astros, and Sunday should definitely favor Houston. If the past 2 weeks have shown us anything, however, what ought to happen is not necessarily what does happen.

The Cardinals badly need this series. I would expect LaRussa to pull out all the stops as he attempts to win it.