Adam Wainwright made his first “start” in what could be a year full of both starts and stops. Of course he’s still over a month away from his first meaningful appearance of the year, but these days, not much he says or does is without meaning.

With the high stakes nature of his ongoing contract negotiations hanging over his 6’7” frame, the comparison machine is going crazy in a wild attempt to get a grasp on what a long-term extension for the Cardinals’ ace would look like. Would it be a rather short-term, balanced money deal in the nature of the one Yadier Molina received last spring? Or would it be an extensive, full career (and then some) style deal, such as the one Albert Pujols ultimately received…elsewhere?

The expectation that the pact would be the largest team history isn’t a far fetched idea. In reality, it’s very much a fact. And the best comparison possible is one that is drawn from the terms that the current holder of that distinction agreed to: Matt Holliday.

Holliday turned 29 just days before signing his seven-year, $120 million deal back in 2009. This is was a mid prime deal for him that also would carry him likely through the remainder of his career. It also became the winter’s biggest deal, despite him likely passing on more lucrative offers from the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. It also came during a time when there was rapid contract growth around him, with Jason Bay, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez all recently receiving long-term deals.

This is nearly the exact scenario that Wainwright is placed in right now. He is 31 years old right now, and would be 32 by the end of the year. Yet, the starting pitching position is the middle of a massive salary push, with large scale deals going out to Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez over the past year. If he was to hit the free agent market, he would instantly become among the most sought after free agents available. He stacks up very well in a class that features Matt Garza, Josh Johnson and Tim Lincecum, each of which will also be over 30 years old by the winter. Basically, Wainwright is running out of contractual obligation at a perfect time for his causes.

But what does the organization have to consider? There is much to be considered in how the team has approached its recent dealing, but also many parallels to pull away as well. The differences from the Pujols deal are numerous. In Pujols’ case, he had been playing a far lower rate than his performance would indicate for many years. And while he entered the market a similar age, his value took on historic connotation, not a superb prime for a top-tier performer, which is what Wainwright is, much like Holliday was. In the case of Molina, he took a shorter term extension, which will carry him into his late 30’s. Yet he still didn’t push for every dollar that he could have on the open market, and likely would have earned if he waited a few months.

The differences between the Pujols and Molina deals are clear, but there some similarities as well. All indications are leaning towards Wainwright wants a guarantee on the length of the deal, which was something they balked at with Pujols. The Cardinals have taken a pretty strong stance against signing over the low-to-late 30’s bridge. It was a balk in their offer to Pujols, and both Molina and Holliday’s deals would expire at ages 35 and 37, respectively. If Wainwright is seeking a deal that is comparable in length to either Cain or Hamels, the balance in length would be six years. This would carry him to his 38^th birthday, and most likely into a scenario where is paid past his prime and into his decline years. The ability to avoid doing this; and have been able to sign many players to their exact prime years and escaping the decline as it approaches. This is a primary factor for what has kept the small market Cardinals with the ability to field the financially flexible roster it has for so many years.

It doesn’t seem that Wainwright would push to hamstring the financial competitiveness of the team, but he has acknowledged that a lowered value deal isn’t likely. In comparison to his last deal he signed at age 26, his focus has changed, “I’m in a different place from last deal. My family is set up, and I’m looking at different things,” he stated last month regarding his desires for this contract. These are the words of a man that is looking towards the future, his own.

And as always, the organization will do what’s best for its future as well, financially and competitively. Both sides will be forced to concede a portion of their absolute interests to find a deal here. While the Cardinals have proven to be resistant to extreme concession (as the Pujols dealings showed), and prefer shorter term commitment (as they proved with Molina) they also have shown that when the situation requires it, as proved with Holliday, they will throw caution to the wind and compete over the long term.

The St. Louis Cardinals have a solid starting rotation that includes two ace-caliber pitchers, a couple of decent No. 3 and No. 4 starters, and a bevy of young flamethrowers. However, they might be in better shape if they re-sign their best starter from last year – Kyle Lohse.

Photo By Erika Lynn

Lohse posted a 16-3 record with a team-leading 2.84 earned-run average and was a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award in 2012. His contract expired at the end of the season, but no team has shown any strong interest in signing the 34-year-old righthander.

Part of the problem for Lohse could be a new system put in place by Major League Baseball in 2011 that gives teams compensation picks if they make qualifying offers to their free agents and those players are signed by another team. Teams have recently been more reluctant to sign a high-priced free agent because they’ll have to give up a draft pick and a portion of their draft money.

Perhaps his asking price is simply too high. Scott Boras represents Lohse, and Boras is known to try any imaginable tactic to drive up the price for teams to sign his clients. This strategy cost Lohse the last time he was a free agent.

Lohse put together a 9-12 record in 2007 with the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies, but he hit the open market that offseason looking for a big, multi-year contract. As Spring Training camps opened in 2008, Lohse was still hunting for a job when the Cardinals signed him to a one-year, $4.25-million deal that was designed to be an opportunity for Lohse to try to maximize his value for the following offseason.

It worked. Lohse went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008, and the Cardinals re-signed him to a four-year, $41-million extension later that season.

The Cardinals might be reluctant to sign Lohse because they want the compensation draft pick, which would be cheaper to sign than a free agent pitcher. But, the franchise could find short- and long-term benefits if they re-sign Lohse.

Lohse could return to the Cardinals with a fairly reasonable deal since no other teams have stepped forward with an offer, and the move could help them beyond next year if Adam Wainwright decides to leave as a free agent. Wainwright is going to command at least a near-record contract if he has a good season, and he is almost certainly going to be more expensive than Lohse.

Theoretically, the Cardinals could sign Lohse to a contract in the neighborhood of four years and as much as $70-80 million. That would still likely be less than half of what Wainwright will make in his next contract. Plus, the Cardinals have several young pitchers who could fill rotation spots if Wainwright decides to leave.

If all that were to happen, the Cardinals could open the 2014 and 2015 seasons with a rotation led by Lohse, followed by Jaime Garcia, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller. That also doesn’t include pitchers such as Trevor Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez.

Granted, that would be a very young rotation, and Garcia’s shoulder problems remain a question at this point. But, there is undoubtedly enough talent in that rotation for the team to be successful, and it would be a heck of a lot cheaper than keeping Wainwright.

Some people might say re-signing Lohse this year is unreasonable, but it could pay off in the long term. The Cardinals would have much more money to spend on a solid middle infielder and veteran players who often play key roles that help win games late in the regular season and playoffs.

Although Lohse’s contract this year could create some sticker shock, it would be minimal compared to the gasping-for-air feeling Cardinals fans could experience if the team tries to sign Wainwright to a long-term contract next year.

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels spent unprecedented amounts of money during the offseason to try to establish dominance, a battle between rivals in the Midwest could be the most intense race of the 2013 season.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds have won the National League Central Division in three of the past four seasons, and each team has made moves this offseason to bolster their chances to do so again next year.

The Cardinals haven’t added much, but they also didn’t have many holes to fill. They signed left-handed relief pitcher Randy Choate to a three-year, $7.5 million contract to fill the team’s biggest need in the bullpen. They also signed bench player Ty Wigginton to a two-year, $5 million deal, but unless Wigginton comes up with a late-inning homer against the Reds, that signing is negligable.

The Reds, who beat the Cardinals by nine games last year to win the division, made more substantial moves. They resigned reliever Jonathan Broxton to a three-year, $21 million contract to be the team’s closer for the foreseeable future and resigned leftfielder Ryan Ludwick for $15 million across two years. The Reds also traded for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians to be their centerfielder and leadoff hitter next year.

The Broxton signing should allow flamethrower Aroldis Chapman to be in the starting rotation next year, and the trade for Choo fills a massive hole at the top of the lineup.

Drew Stubbs, who went to the Indians in the trade, held that spot last season, but he hit just .213 with a .277 on-base percentage and 166 strikeouts. By contrast, Choo hit .283 with a .373 on-base percentage and struck out 150 times. That’s still a lot of strikeouts for a leadoff hitter, but Choo provides more power and is certainly an upgrade in a spot the Reds tried to improve at last season’s trading deadline.

Although neither team has made nearly as many moves as several other teams so far in the offseason, the Cardinals and Reds have fortified their rosters to stage quite a battle throughout the 2013 season. They’ll do so without handing out contracts worth more than $100 million, as the Dodgers did by signing pitcher Zack Greinke and Angels did by signing outfielder Josh Hamilton.

The Cardinals and Reds have a recent history full of intense games that have at times led to shouting matches and even a full-out brawl in 2010. With both teams loaded and ready for battle heading into the season, one might think this could be a season series full of more temper tantrums and games that will leave blood boiling for both teams and both fanbases.

But this year’s rivalry might take a more professional turn. Both the Cardinals and Reds know each organization has a good team, and they will likely be the two strongest contenders for the NL Central Division title.

In past years, the Reds were an up-and-coming team that felt it had to rough up the more established Cardinals to gain entrance to the top of the division. Those days are gone. General manager Walt Jocketty has built a roster with a good starting rotation, solid bullpen and increasingly potent lineup filled with stars such as Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce.

This year’s Cardinals-Reds rivalry could be similar to recent battles in the AL West between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Both teams had some of the most talented rosters in the league, and they stuck strictly to playing solid, intense yet not over-the-top baseball games.

Although it might be fun for fans to watch for extracurricular activities on the field and in the dugouts similar to a playoff hockey game, it might be even more impressive to watch a season series that has good, high-quality baseball.

So while big-market teams on the West Coast battle each other with dollar bills in the offseason, actual games between the Cardinals and Reds next season could create the most interesting division races in all of baseball.

The Royals need another front of the rotation starter, even after acquiring Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. With a $70MM “soft” salary cap (which many argue is too low), the Royals say they’re willing to trade top outfield prospect Wil Myers for starting pitching. Names such as Tampa Bay’s James Shields and Boston’s Jon Lester have come up, but so far they’re nothing more than rumors. But is trading a top offensive prospect for starting pitching a good idea in the first place?

If it’s for Shields or Lester, no. Yes, they are good pitchers and better than anyone in the Royals rotation, including Santana and Guthrie. But they’re not worth Wil Myers trade value.

Both Shields and Lester will be free agents in 2014. If Myers stays with the Royals, he’ll likely be a free agent until 2019. Then there’s money. Shields will make $9MM in 2013 and has a $12MM team option. Lester will make $11.6MM in 2013 and has a $13MM team option. Myers will make much less.

Shields pitched 227.2 innings in 33 starts, had a 3.52 ERA with a 3.84 strikeout to walk ratio. Lester pitched 205.1 innings in 33 starts, had a 4.82 ERA with a 2.44 strikeout to walk ratio. Shields is 30 and Lester is 28, but between the two, Shields appears the one most likely to improve. Both pitchers are good and would be an asset to the Royals rotation, but not for Myers.

Now if the Tampa Rays are willing to deal David Price or Jeremy Hellickson for Myers, that might be a good trade. Price is a Super Two player, which makes him arbitration eligible in 2013 and a free agent in 2016. Hellickson is arbitration eligible in 2014 and a free agent in 2017.  Price made $4.35MM in 2012 and Hellickson made $489,500 in 2012, so they’re very affordable and would be under club control for at least a few years.

But I don’t see a trade like that happening. Price was a 20 game winner, pitching 211.0 innings over 31 starts with a 2.16 ERA and a 3.47 strikeout to walk ratio. And he was the American League Cy Young Award winner for 2012. Hellickson was no slouch, pitching 177.0 innings over 31 starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 2.10 strikeout to walk ratio. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2011.

Of the two, the Rays might trade Hellickson for Myers straight up, but to get Price the Royals would probably have to throw in another high level prospect like a Jake Odorizzi or Jason Adam. And the Rays aren’t rebuilding, so there’s no good reason for them to give up starting pitching for prospects.

If the Royals are so bent on trading for a starting pitcher, maybe they should consider Chicago Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija. Jeff Samardzija? To be honest, I didn’t know much about him either. But Samardzija was the ace of the Cubs, pitching 174.2 innings in 28 starts with a 3.81 ERA and a 3.21 strikeout to walk ratio. Sure, being the ace of the 61-101 Cubs isn’t that impressive. But Samardzija made $2.64MM in 2012, is arbitration eligible in 2013 and a free agent in 2016.

And the best thing is the Royals won’t have to trade Myers to get Samardzija (unless they’re very stupid, which is possible). The Royals could give the Cubs someone like Mike Montgomery or Cheslor Cuthbert for Samardzija and jettison or trade Luke Hochevar to pay Samardzija’s salary. The Royals still have money left to get a free agent pitcher like a Shaun Marcum or Anibal Sanchez. And Myers can take Jeff Francoeur‘s place in right field in 2013. Sounds like a good deal to me.

Offseason news is dominated with big trades (like the Miami Marlins shipping a part of their roster to the Toronto Blue Jays) and wondering where star free agents like Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton will sign. But there’s a lot of small moves Major League clubs make in an effort to improve their teams and the Royals are no different.

Last week, the Royals traded reliever Jeremy Jeffress to Toronto for cash and reliever Tommy Hottovy to the Texas Rangers for cash and our old friend player to be named later. And on Monday outfielder Jason Bourgeois elected to become a free agent. Earlier this month, the Royals designated the three players for assignment to clear space on the 40-man roster.

Jeffress, 25, appeared in 13 games with the Royals with a 6.75 ERA. He’s out of options and the Jays will give him to opportunity to make the team. Kansas City native and lefty specialist Hottovy, 31, appeared in nine games with the Royals with a 2.89 ERA and hopes to be a part of the Ranger’s bullpen. Bourgeois, 30, had a .258 average in 30 games with the Royals and has yet to sign with a team.

With their limited roles, Jeffress and Hottovy were the odd men out in an already solid bullpen. And Bourgeois was expendable since the Royals already have speedy outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson on their roster.

To be honest, Jeffress, Hottovy and Bourgeois had a small role with the Royals and they weren’t going to be a part of the team’s future. These minor moves in the middle of November will be a fading memory as the 2013 season commences. But it’s the business of baseball and I hope Jeffress, Hottovy and Bourgeois have good luck with their new teams.

A quick perusal of the Royals All-Time Hispanic Heritage Team is enough to realize that the team has not had much of a history in Latin America. The team’s system produced just one true star of Hispanic decent – Carlos Beltran – in its first 42 years.

You would think when they watched Beltran quickly bloom into a dynamic five-tool star that they would have begun searching high and low for other such talents.

But they didn’t. A few good Hispanic players came along, most of them acquired via trades. But the number, documented in a previous article, was shockingly low.

Mining Latin America for young talent just wasn’t a part of the plan. While the percentage of Latin players on major league rosters climbed to 27% last year, the Royals lagged behind.

But under Dayton Moore, that approach has changed. Signing players from Latin America is a way to augment annual draft classes and quickly bulk up a minor league system. The Royals are now one of the primary players in Latin America, competing to sign the top free agents and fill their system with dynamic prospects.

It is significant that two of the brightest hopes for the Royals future were signed in Moore’s first year on the job. Salvador Perez, from Venezuela, and Kelvin Herrera, from the Dominican Republic, shot so fast through the minor leagues that they never even showed up on rankings of top prospects.

Since then, other top Hispanic prospects have joined the organization, and the minor league system is filling up with Hispanics following in the footsteps of Perez and Herrera.

Not all will work out, obviously. The Royals dug deep into their pocketbooks to ink Noel Arguellas at the same time the Reds broke the bank to sign Aroldis Chapman. Sad to say, the Royals have not had the same success with Arguellas.

2006:

Sugar Ray Marimon (23): During the same off-season that KC signed Perez and Herrera, they also added this right-handed starter from Colombia. Shoulder problems have slowed him, but he advanced to Double-A mid-season.

2008:

Robinson Yambati (21): The Dominican righty received a mid-year promotion to High A Wilmington for his solid relief pitching. He may be following in the footsteps of Herrera.

Yordano Ventura (21): This Dominican got the start for the international team in the Futures Game, heralded as one of the hardest throwers in the minor leagues. Boasting a 100 mph heater, Ventura tore up Carolina League hitters (98 Ks in 76 innings), adjusted slowly to Double-A.

2009:

Cheslor Cuthbert (19): A pup who’s been slowly climbing the minor league ladder, Cuthbert gets rave reviews, but has yet to explode on the field. The Nicaraguan remains a top third base prospect, but hit just .240 with 7 homers at High A Wilmington.

Jorge Bonifacio (19): The Dominican outfielder rocketed out of the blocks last spring at Low A Kane County. He slowed over the season, but finished with a .282 average, 10 homers and 61 RBIs in 105 games.

2010:

Orlando Calixte (20): Looks like he has all the skills necessary to play shortstop. Hit well enough at two levels of A-ball to inspire hope for the future.

Noel Arguelles (22): This signing has been disastrous for the pitching-starved Royals. After giving the Cuban defector $7 million, the Royals had to wonder if Arguelles would ever take the field. After about a year on the sidelines nursing arm troubles, Arguelles has been essentially a batting practice pitcher at Wilmington and Northwest Arkansas. Don’t check out his numbers if you have a weak stomach: 4-14, 6.41 ERA, 1.777 WHIP.

Humberto Arteaga (18): Could follow in the footsteps of fellow Venezuelan shortstop Alcides Escobar – a tall, lanky line-drive hitter. He hit .274 for Burlington last season, but struck out a ton.

2011:

Eliar Hernandez (17): Signed for $3 million, expectations are high for the Dominican outfielder. He is tall and athletic, but failed to hit in his first professional season – .208 with no homers at Idaho Falls. The Royals hope he’ll develop into a Wil Myers-type outfielder.

Adalberto Mondesi (17): Yet another shortstop at the low minors, the son of Raul Mondesi doesn’t exactly fit the criteria for this article. Though he was signed out of the Dominican, he was actually born in Los Angeles. Mondesi spent the season at Idaho Falls, even though he didn’t turn 17 until the end of the summer.  He was solid enough considering his age; he hit .290 with 3 homers in 50 games.

If you are ever looking for the definition of forcing an organization’s hand, you need look no further than Wil Myers. Myers is doing his best Eric Hosmer impersonation in 2012 and at some point this season the Kansas City Royals are going to have a decision to make. The options are numerous, but unfortunately none of them will be easy.

Option 1: Free Wil Myers!

Bringing Myers’ hot bat up to KC is probably the favorite option amongst Royals fans, but the question is, where? Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon are both under contract for at least the next two years and the club still has no idea what it has in Lorenzo Cain. Mike Moustakas is firmly entrenched at third. The only real option this season would be to send Eric Hosmer down for seasoning and bring Myers up to DH and spell outfielders while Billy Butler plays first. I don’t like the idea of Hosmer in Omaha or Billy Butler playing first base.

Of course you could avoid that whole mess by trading one of these big leaguers for starting pitching help…but who? I doubt anyone wants Gordon’s new contract until he proves last year wasn’t a fluke, and then Dayton Moore wouldn’t trade him anyway. Francoeur is coveted by no one as much as he is by Dayton Moore. Lorenzo Cain is injured. So that leaves Mike Moustakas…but really, if you’re going to trade Moustakas why wouldn’t you just…

Option 2: Trade Wil Myers

There is something to be said for trading players at their peak values, but this is not something the Royals have excelled at. Myers would probably bring a nice haul of prospect arms, but the Royals have shown that prospect arms rarely turn into starting rotation arms. Trading Myers for a starting pitcher would prove even more difficult. Most of the pitchers available on the market are free agents at the end of this season. Why in the world would you trade a prospect that you control for the next 6 years for a rent-a-starter when you are 10 games under .500?

So that leaves the only option as packaging Myers with other prospects for a pitcher you can control for 2+ years. Honestly, the list of good young pitchers locked up for 2+ years and available is ridiculously short. Of course, that lack of supply makes demand ridiculously high, which to me means trading Wil Myers is probably a bad solution.

Option 3: Platoon Wil Myers

I kid, I kid. I assume the Royals will not give Myers the Johnny Giavotella treatment. However, as much as this organization loves utility infielders, can we completely rule out the utility slugger? Myers can conceivably play all three outfield positions, third base and first base. Obviously he could fill in at DH as well. I wouldn’t put it past this organization to bring Myers up and play him 5 days a week at a different position each day.

Honestly, I am not sure I have the solution. Even though I hate option three, it would at least help the lineup. Best case scenario? Frenchy keeps up his current streak and we trade him and Broxton for a couple of AA All Stars in July, freeing up Wil Myers to play RF and Kelvin Herrera to get a chance to close. Of course, the idea of Dayton Moore trading Frenchy is like asking my 10 year old to give up his Xbox…you can’t fight love.

With the Kansas City Royals officially opening their 2012 season this Friday, the optimism for some fans is now being replaced with nervousness.

For a baseball fan, it is only natural to be optimistic during the off-season. The disaster of the previous year is in the past, free agents have been added, that overpaid free-agent’s contract finally expired, and well…somebody has to win next year, right? And for fans of most teams, eventually the optimism pays off. Your team comes from out of nowhere to qualify for the playoffs, and whether they advance or not, that can be considered a successful season (unless you’re the Yankees or Red Sox). But for longer than any other organization in baseball, Royals fans have had their off-season optimism shoved down their throat in the form of embarrassingly bad baseball. The Royals have the longest playoff drought in all of MLB. So one can understand why a Royals fan might eventually decide not to even bother with the positive thoughts.

Until the 2010 season, it was hard to envision a scenario in which Royals fans would be given any reason to believe they would see a winner in the near future. It was during that season, that things began to come together at the minor league level. Former first-round draft picks Mike Moustakas(3B) and Eric Hosmer(1B) began to emerge as two of the top prospects in baseball. 19-year old 3rd round draft pick Will Myers began to turn heads in A-ball. Other prospects began giving people to take notice as well, and before long, the Royals farm system was the talk of baseball. All of a sudden, that dark tunnel that Royals fans had peered into for so long started to show a faint light at the end. After the 2010 season, all the talk was about the Royals farm system. Not only was it considered the best in all of baseball, but some were calling it the best farm system that they had ever seen. And while the expectations for the 2011 Royals season weren’t great, fans were, for the first time in a very long time, allowed to feel legitimately optimistic for the future. 2011 saw the arrival of Hosmer, Moustakas, Salvador Perez(C), Johnny Giovatella(2B), Danny Duffy(SP), and a whole crop of young bullpen arms.

For the most part, all signs were positive. Hosmer impressed from day one. Moustakas went through his struggles, but by the end of the year, looked like he was figuring things out. Perez was very impressive, and while Giovatella and Duffy both struggled at times, both showed definite signs of promise. On top of this, Alcides Escobar(SS) emerged as arguably the best defensive SS in all of baseball. Lorenzo Cain came up for an impressive September call-up. Free-Agent Jeff Francoeur(OF) pulled his career out of the toilet with a fantastic year, and former top prospect Alex Gordon(OF) finally showed the promise he was thought to have when he was drafted in 2005. Looking at things from a long-term perspective, it is hard to imagine things going more positively in 2011. Everyone has pointed to 2012 as the year when the Royals will begin to ascend back to relevance for the first time in almost 20 years.

But what if it all goes wrong? This is a question that Royals fans are conditioned to ask. While Hosmer is as close to a sure thing as there is, would it surprise anyone if Moustakas never fully came around? If Duffy can’t keep his pitch count down? If Francoeur returns to being a near useless hitter? What if Gordon also finds himself with an extended stay on the DL? Center-fielder Lorenzo Cain is thought to be ready to break out, but what if that doesn’t happen? Salvador Perez has already been injured and is out until June. Closer Joakim Soria is out for the year with Tommy John surgery.

Each of these things individually is a very realistic possibility. But what makes this year different from past years, is that rather than considering all of the things that would have to go wrong for things to go bad, Royals fans were forced to point out all of the things that COULD go right to help them contend.

This year may not go as Royals fans hope. Every single thing listed above could take place. But it sure beats sitting around hoping Juan Gonzalez regains his MVP form, Mike Sweeney‘s back finally holds up, and Benito Santiago and Reggie Sanders discover the Fountain of Youth.

The late blooming free agent market is beginning to produce contracts, this time in the form of a one year deal between Edwin Jackson and the Washington Nationals.

Many fans will remember that Edwin Jackson joined the St. Louis Cardinals in a mid-summer trade that sent Colby Rasmus to the Toronto Blue Jays.  That trade, at the time, seemingly divided Cardinal Nation on the opinion of what the team was hoping to accomplish.

The critics of the trade felt the Cardinals were going all in for 2012 and paying too high of a price.  At the heart of the deal was Rasmus, considered by many to be a budding star who simply could not get along with manager Tony LaRussa.  Rasmus was part of the future in St. Louis as far as fans were concerned.  Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson were rent-a-players that proved this franchise was only looking at the current season.  The evidence to support this argument is mounting as all three players have now moved on.

Cardinal Nation seems slow to accept the fact that General Manager John Mozeliak has instituted a new regime, and a new strategy, towards building this club.  The players that were returned for Rasmus, Trever Miller, P.J. Walters and Brian Tallet did exactly what they were designed to do: they helped win in 2012 and build for the future.  All thanks to the free agency system as we know it.

The key part to the trade from the Cardinals side was Marc Rzepczynski, a left handed relief pitcher that may well find his way into the rotation some day.  In addition, those pieces that helped win in 2012 became ranked free agents, delivering the Cardinals with supplemental draft picks in this year’s amateur draft in exchange for their services on other teams.

Jackson reached an agreement with the Nationals this afternoon on a one year contract that, at this time, has not had the financial terms disclosed.  Jackson will anchor a young, yet strong, starting rotation in Washington that also features a returning phenom in Steven Strasburg.

The Nationals take a very calculated gamble with Jackson.  Should he continue to produce the way he has in his career, he will benefit the team and quite likely become a ranked free agent next off season, landing them a draft pick as well.  Jackson, on the other hand, looks towards the winter of 2012 to provide him, hopefully, with a greater chance at a much larger contract.

The Cardinals took their gamble last July.  It might just pay off.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

Kansas City Royals fans are excited for the coming baseball season. I’m not sure if they’re excited to have any kind of baseball back, or they think the Royals have a legitimate shot at winning games during the 2012 season. Like most either-or situations the truth is most likely in the middle. I’m excited too, and I have been since the end of the regular season.

I have not been this excited during a Royals off-season since the winter of 2003-2004. Remember that? I do, and it has me slightly worried. The Royals finished the 2003 Season 83-79. While the 2003 Royals faded down the stretch, and dropping their last three to White Sox there was lot to be excited about that fall. The Royals had a collection of young guys. Angel Berrora was the 2003 AL Rookie of the Year. He flashed some leather in the field, and was surprise at the plate. Surely Berrora would get better during the off-season? Ken Harvey had a good first half of the season and became an All-Star. Even though he faded during the second half of 2003, surely he would figure some things out and get better? Mike MacDougal would learn some control. Jose Lima had eliminated his demons and was back to being a productive starter. Mike Sweeney will get healthy over the winter. Runelvys Hernandez, Brian Anderson, Jeremy Affeldt, DJ Carrasco, Jimmy Gobble, would all come back in 2004 and be better. Because that’s what young ball players do. They get better. They don’t ever regress? Do they?

Not only was the current roster going to improve but Allard Baird signed veteran free agents Benito Santiago and Juan Gonzales. Zack Greinke was waiting in the minors. Some national media prognosticators even picked the 2004 Royals to win the division! The Royals future was bright, and the Royals fans had to wear shades to even look at it. How could anything go wrong?

You're looking at the best moment of the Royals 2004 Season.

The 2004 Off-Season concluded with one of the most exciting Opening Day’s in franchise history with Mendy Lopez hitting a home run off Damaso Marte in the bottom of the 9th. I was at that game, and it’s one of my favorite Royals memories. The Royals march to October was underway. I went to two more games that opening week. The Royals finished up the opening home stand 4-2. Of Course, we don’t need Paul Harvey to tell us what happened to Ken Harvey and learn the rest of this story. The Royals only won three more games the rest of April, finishing 7-14. This included a six game losing streak. May got even weirder with Tony Pena fleeing the country and the wheels officially coming off the wagon. Thus began even darker days for the franchise and it’s fans, and truthfully I don’t know if we’ve ever fully recovered.

This season does look promising. But years, and years of disappointment have dulled my optimist’s blade a little. After all, the 2003 Royals won twelve more games than the 2011 Royals. I claim to not be a very big statistics person. But one statistic that came to my attention during the 2003 season was the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula. You use total runs scored and total runs allowed for a team to determine what a team’s record should be. The 2003 Royals had a better record than their Pythagorean W-L: 78-84. Their actual W-L was 83-79. In other words, the 2003 Royals were lucky. Any team that got to play the 2003 Tigers 19 times was lucky. The 2011 Royals Pythagorean W-L: 78-84. Their actual W-L was 71-91. The 2011 Royals were more unlucky than the 2003 Royals were lucky. This tells me that last season’s Royals weren’t all that far off from being a .500 team.

Knowing that last season’s team was better than perceived sort of eases my mind. However, a lot of assumptions on 2012 being a good season for the Royals are dependent on the same things that made us think 2004 was going to be a good season. Youth taking a step forward, no major regressions from the established roster, and new additions being as advertised or better. I’ve been this excited before only to see the worst team in franchise history trotted onto the field. There are always a lot of ifs for a baseball team this time of year. Too many times the answer to those ifs has been wrong for the Royals. That’s what has me worried. If this group of players doesn’t turn things around for the organization the only thing we’ll have to look forward to is another GM and another process. For once it would be fun to be excited about the Royals, and not worry that the wheels might fall off. Of course, like a lot of Royals fans problems only consistent winning will take care of that.