Tag Archive | "Francisco Rodriguez"

Cardinals Recap – The Milwaukee Series

No one in the Cardinal organization was willing to call Thursday’s series finale a ‘must-win’ game. It sure felt that way. Although they have 6 games remaining with Milwaukee, potentially having to make up 6 games with only 43 to go presented a daunting task. Basically if the team played even with the Brewers for the other 37 games, then won all six head to head, they’d finish tied. A hard road to walk. St Louis absolutely had to have last night’s game. Thankfully their two biggest stars of the last decade rose to the challenge and delivered.

Lopez Scores

In retrospective, what did we learn from these recent games with Milwaukee?

It’s hard to win when you’re behind. Self-evident, I know, but still true. St Louis did not have a lead in this series until Berkman knocked in Jay with one out in the third inning last night. Here’s an interesting tidbit – the Cardinals led after 7 of the 28 innings played in this three game series. The previous series in Milwaukee? They led after 7 of the 29 innings played. At least in Milwaukee they led in every game (albeit it early in both the 1 and 2 August tilts), something they were not able to do at home. However, leading for less than 1/3 of the total innings played makes it tough to win more than one game.

Milwaukee starting pitching is better. Most folks suspected that would be true after the Brewers acquired Grienke and Marcum, and Wainwright went down for the season. Through 119 games, both clubs sport an identical team ERA with St Louis’ starters slightly better (3.88 to 3.90). Remove Milwaukee’s slipshod fielding and their starters rise well above (3.61 xFIP to 3.76 for St Louis). Even with the addition of Edwin Jackson the Brewer 5 are better top to bottom than the Cardinal hurlers. This became painfully clear during the series.

Milwaukee relief pitching is also better. A somewhat surprising result to this correspondent, because Milwaukee has self-detonated so often late in games in recent years. Before the addition of Francisco Rodriguez the Brewers bullpen had posted better fielding independent numbers than St Louis (3.53 to 3.94). K-Rod, despite his high pitch numbers, makes them that much better. In this series the Brewer bullpen threw 8 scoreless innings; Cardinal relievers allowed 4 runs in 6 innings. Bullpen performance decided Tuesday’s game.

Albert Pujols will not decide the NL Central. The cries are becoming increasingly more shrill – Pujols has to step up and produce! Four-hundred-sixty plate appearnaces of .284/.348/.539 and one broken arm later, it is unrealistic to think he’ll hit .400 over the next 2 months. Albert’s best month (by average) was June; he’s hit under .300 the rest of the season. Besides, it’s not as if Pujols morphed into Jason Bartlett for the 2011 season. His SLG places him in the NL top 10 – it’s tenth, but still. By comparison, Berkman is first and Holliday third. The Cardinal offense remains lethal.

After being out-played over six games by the hottest team in the NL, St Louis lost only 2 games in the standings. They are also the only team to beat Milwaukee during their current hot streak. Both of those facts are encouraging; if the Cardinals can beat them while their white-hot, they can beat them when they cool off. Milwaukee is not going to win 13 out of every 15 from now until the end of September. Overcoming a 4-game deficit in mid-August is entirely doable. Not easy, but doable.

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He Plays For Who?

That seems to be a common reaction a few days after the non-waiver trade deadline passes. Players are dealt, flipped, and reassigned quicker than even the most trained eye can keep up with.

Allow me to step out of our normal Cardinals and Royals coverage and take a look at the big picture for a minute. There was a lot of activity at this year’s deadline, from a lot of teams that others did not expect. There are familiar faces in new places and all of this started back around July 13…

Deadline Deals

It was then, 18 days prior to the deadline, that the Blue Jays emerged in the “seller” category and shipped Juan Rivera to the Los Angeles Dodgers for the infamous Player To Be Named Later (PTBNL) or Cash Considerations. Rivera, who returns to Los Angeles after a six-year stint with the Angeles, is a hitter that just does not seem to find a consistent stroke. Listed as an outfielder/first baseman, he has shown flashes of solid play, posting seasons with over 20 home runs and more than 80 runs batted in. However, he has followed them up with seasons of injuries and reduced playing time. The Dodgers see him as an upgrade over Marcus Thames, who was released following this move.

The Juan Rivera deal might have been the first deal this trade season, but the league and baseball fans everywhere barely noticed as the Brewers announced a deal on the same day. The Milwaukee club, who many have said will take the National League Central, struck a deal at the middle of the month to bring Francisco Rodriguez to the club from the New York Mets providing the Gotham team with two PTBNL in return. Rodriguez joins John Axford as dominant arms in the Brewers bullpen and drastically shortens the game for Brewers opponents. Most teams shied away from K-Rod due to a clause in his contract that causes a $17.5 million option to vest should he finish 55 games in 2011. He has currently closed out 34, but the Brewers seem set to use him as a setup man to Axford, making K-Rod a two and half month, eighth inning rental.

The Blue Jays were back in the news as the deadline approached. As America turned their calendars to July 27, the Blue Jays announced they were sending Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Mark Teahen and Edwin Jackson. A move that made little sense for the Canadian franchise that was deemed as sellers quickly turned into the season first flip trade. Jackson would be dealt to the Cardinals ensuring that he would in fact wear a bird, but would not be leaving the country to wear a bird of the blue variety. The deal with the Cardinals would send Jackson, Corey Patterson, Marc Rzepcynski, Octavio Dotel and three PTBNL to St. Louis in exchange for Trever Miller, Colby Rasmus, PJ Walters, and Brian Tallet. I-70 Baseball broke down the underlying details of this deal here.

Just a day later, the surprise team of the American League Central showed that it was going to do what it needed to in order to continue to win. The Cleveland Indians, in need of outfield help due to injuries, would send outfielder Abner Abreu and pitcher Carlton Smith to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. Abreu has never seen time above High-A ball in his four professional years, but signed as a 17 year old so that can be deceiving. He has shown flashes of power this season though his batting average seems to have suffered for it. Smith has spent six seasons in the Indians farm system, reaching Triple-A last season for the first time. Being groomed as a reliever and possibly a closer, the youngster will need to find his footing soon if he anticipates a major league career. Fukudome has spent his entire American career, albeit a short one, in Chicago until now. He plays a strong outfield and is typically a consistent, if not flashy, hitter until this season. His power has all but disappeared and the Indians may be banking on a change of scenery to help with that.

It what seemed to be a trend, a deal that was made to strengthen a team would be overshadowed before the day was over by a deal that would be regarded as major. Major might be an understatement this time as July 28th would see the prize player of this year’s trade deadline change teams, and coasts, as Carlos Beltran traded in his New York Mets cap to join the team that left New York, the San Francisco Giants. In return, the Mets snagged one of baseball’s top prospect pitchers in Zach Wheeler. The 21 year old Wheeler has spent just two years in the minor leagues, but has thrown well. Good command, a high strikeout ratio and low walk ratio have people talking about Wheeler, and he is still playing High-A ball at this point. The Mets would look to accelerate the young man and have him in New York sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, the Giants grab an outfielder that is coming off of two injury laden seasons and appears to be back to his All-Star form. Beltran leads the league in doubles, is hitting for power and average, and is showing up on highlight reels across the country in the outfield. Many think the Giants made the move they needed to in order to find their way to October.

The following day, on the 29th of July, the Phillies would make a move to grab an outfielder and middle of the order hitter, acquiring Hunter Pence from the Houston Astros for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid, and a PTBNL. Pence has hit 25 home run in each of the last three seasons and has seen his stock rise with teams around the league as Houston continues to rebuild. Pence did not come cheap for the Phillies, however, as they shipped their two top prospects to Houston in Singleton and Cosart. Singleton has spent most of his young career playing first base and showing occasional power to go along with a consistently high average. Cosart joins Singleton as 21-year old prospects on the move, as the pitcher will leave his High-A ball team in the Phillies organization where he has shown the ability to keep hitters under control while pitching to contact. Zeid is a young pitcher at the Double-A level that has struggled until finding his footing as a reliever this season. The Astros see him as an important part of the bullpen in the near future but make no mistake, it was Cosart and Singleton that made this deal happen.

With two days left before the non-waiver trade deadline, the flood gates would open and players would be moving in rapid succession on July 30th. It was the Brewers who would make a move to shore up their infield after losing Rickie Weeks to injury. The Brewers would send a struggling pitcher from their Double-A club, Erik Komatsu, to the Washington Nationals in exchange for utility man Jerry Hairston. Hairston provides immediate assistance at second and long term infield help when Weeks returns.

Utility men filling holes around the leagues was on a few general manager’s minds on July 30 and the next trade would land squarely in the middle of I-70′s team from the west. Longtime utility man Mike Aviles finds himself heading to the East Coast and the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Kendal Volz and Yamaico Navarro. Navarro for Aviles makes little sense other than a “change of scenery” type of deal. Both players are similar types – utility infielders that have yet to perform at the level their teams thought they would. Volz on the other hand spent his first professional year starting games at Low-A ball and is currently closing games at High-A, and doing both fairly well. The Royals appear to have cut at least one deal that put something back into their farm system.

It was Detroit that wanted to gear their pitching staff up for the playoff run and they were able to land an arm for the rotation and one for the bullpen in their July 30 trade with the Seattle Mariners. Detroit might have picked up one of the games most interesting relief pitchers in David Pauley. The young right hander is holding left handed hitters well below .160 on a regular basis. Fister is one of those pitchers that has remained hidden in Seattle, posting a solid earned run average, good strikeout/walk ratio and overall pitching very well, but being left with a 3-12 record. Detroit sends rightfielder Casper Wells, reliever Charlie Furbush, minor league third baseman Francisco Martinez and a PTBNL. Wells is just starting to get his feet wet in the major leagues, but is showing a solid batting average and a patient eye. Furbush is a swing man reliever capable of picking up a start or two if needed and Martinez projects as a major league caliber hitter who is performing well at the Double-A level currently.

Continuing the flurry of activity on the 30th the Washington Nationals would ship Jason Marquis to the Arizona Diamondbacks to help shore up their rotation as they fight for a spot in October in the National League West. The Diamondbacks would send Zach Walters, a Class-A Shortstop, to the nation’s capital to complete the deal. Walters is showing the ability to hit well and play multiple positions in the minors.

The Texas Rangers needed to shore up their bullpen and they made a few moves approaching the deadline to achieve that. Another July 30th deal would see the Orioles float setup man Koji Uehara to the Rangers in exchange for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. Davis is a corner infielder who has arrived in the major leagues on the heels of a powerful showing in the minors. He posted 24 home runs and 66 runs batted in at Triple-A this season prior to his call up. Hunter is on the same path, just from the mound. A young man that has been performing well at the minor league level and is now shoring up a bullpen in Baltimore.

The Giants would continue to shore up their shortcomings and replace injured veteran Miguel Tejada by acquiring Orlando Cabrera from the Indians for Thomas Neal. Cabrera, who has spent most of his career playing short has spent all of this season playing second for the tribe. Neal, a right handed outfielder, has shown promises of power and hitting ability a few years back but has struggled to produce lately.

The Orioles were not done on July 30th, however, and would send first baseman Derek Lee to the surprisingly competitive Pittsburgh Pirates in a deal that would bring Aaron Baker back to Baltimore. Baker may be one of the best pure hitters on the move, even though he has not played above High-A Ball. Meanwhile, the Pirates are able to replace the struggling Lyle Overbay with a strong bat that is familiar with baseball well into September.

July 30th would end with a bang and would feature one of the clubs that surprised everyone by being buyers at the deadline. The Cleveland Indians, thick in a hunt for the American League Central would land Colorado Rockies’ ace pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. Ace pitchers do not come cheap, however, and the Indians would trade their top two pitching prospects in the package to Colorado. Alex White and Joe Gardner would be joined by former catcher and current outfielder Matt McBride and a PTBNL. McBride is a hitter that is looking to find a home defensively but with a bat like that, the Rockies will find him a home.

The Dodgers would send injured and struggling speedster Rafael Furcal to the Cardinals in exchange for Alex Castellanos on July 31. The Dodgers get a Double-A outfielder with some upside and a chance to see how well prospect Dee Gordon handles the position the rest of the year. The Cardinals get a pure leadoff man and a huge upgrade in defense at short.

The trade deadline was not going to settle into the sunset with a simple shortstop move, and the Diamondbacks were still looking to fill in their roster. They would send reliever Jordan Norberto along with first baseman Brandon Allen to the Oakland A’s for the impressive sidearm reliever Brad Ziegler. Ziegler has been unbelievable this season, including his debut run of 39 scoreless innings, and surely will give the Diamondbacks some more firepower in the bullpen.

Rumors flew on the day of the deadline with Erik Bedard of the Seattle Mariners being connected to multiple teams all throughout the day. Ultimately it would take three teams and a slew of prospects changing hands to get Bedard into Boston and a Red Sox uniform. Bedard helps fill in a vacancy left by the injury to Clay Buckholz and the Red Sox will rely on him to help guide them deeper into the postseason.

The trade deadline would see Ryan Ludwick change teams for the second straight year. This time, the former Cardinal who has been in a bit of a slump since leaving the Redbirds will find himself back in the National League Central and playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates promised cash or a PTBNL in exchange.

In a highly anticipated and rumored move, the San Diego Padres moved a relief pitcher, but it was not Heath Bell. It would be Mike Adams who would find himself in a new uniform when the calendar flipped to August and that uniform would have the Texas Rangers logo on it. The Rangers pulled off a deal for another strong bullpen arm, this time giving up prospects Robert Erlin and Joesph Wieland, two young impressive pitchers that many expect in the majors soon.

It was the Atlanta Braves who would steal the spotlight as the curtain came down on the trade deadline. The Braves would acquire Houston Astros outfielder Michael Bourn in exchange for Juan Abreu, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and prized prospect Jordan Schafer. Abreu, Oberholtzer, and Clemens are more of the same from Atlanta, strong pitching prospects that can make a difference very quickly for their new ball club. Schafer has finally got his chance to shine in the big leagues this season and has struggled to get a handle on big league pitching. The future still seems bright for the young man if he can turn it around.

This year’s non-waiver trade deadline brought a lot of moves, a lot of new faces, and a lot of prospects changing hands. Now you’re up to speed on who is wearing what hat as the teams begin the run to the playoffs.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

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Why Is A Trade Necessary?

[Adapted from an article on El Maquino]

Right after the All-Star Game on Tuesday, Sports Illustrated reporter Jon Heyman was rushed onto the MLB Network on-field studio to announce the news: the holder of the all-time saves in a season record Francisco Rodriguez had just been sent to the Brewers for some mid-level prospects.

You must be this tall to be a Cardinal, sorry Aaron Miles.

The natural first reaction (I had it too) was that Cards GM John Mozeliak had to counter with a move of his own. In fact, Mo was even discussing with the media what kind of deal he will be making with the trade deadline now only a bit more than two weeks away. But now my question is Why? Why is a trade taken for granted?

K-Rod is good, but he will operate as a setup man in Milwaukee since a big paycheck hike is in store for the team if he ends 21 more games. So his role is diminished in an already awful bullpen (20 losses, most in the Majors). So how good did this move really make them? Better than the Cardinals? I don’t think so. The only reason the NL Central is even close at this point is because the Cardinals were banged up ever since Adam Wainwright went down in spring training. But now, they’re healthy. Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, David Freese, Skip Schumaker, Gerald Laird and Kyle McClellan are all healthy with the only key players still on the DL being Allen Craig and Eduardo Sanchez. They were equal with the Brewers when they were injured. Now, everyone’s back.

So, to me, the Cardinals are better than the Brewers by not making any deals. In a way, getting Pujols and others off the disabled list are trades in their own right.

Plus, what do the Cards really need? The primary answers to that would be defense, relief and starting pitching. Defense is an obvious hole, but you can’t point to a single player who is on the field solely because of his defense. For instance, why does Lance Berkman play right instead of Jon Jay, who is a much better rightfielder? Because Berkman puts up MVP numbers at the plate. So while defense is important to most teams, it’s obvious that it will not be an integral part of this one.

If you had said the Cards needed to make a deal to help the bullpen a month ago, I would have totally agreed with you. But now, the entire thing has been re-worked since Opening Day:

Bryan Augenstein (Still injured)
Miguel Batista (Fired)
Mitchell Boggs (Demoted for some reason, re-promoted)
Ryan Franklin (Fired)
Trever Miller
Jason Motte
Brian Tallet (Injured)

Fernando Salas (Promoted, now closer)
Lance Lynn (Promoted, now long reliever)
Raul Valdes (Promoted, now lefty specialist)
P.J. Walters (Promoted)

Eddy Sanchez (Promoted, injured)
Maikel Cleto (Promoted, demoted)
Brandon Dickson (Promoted, demoted)

Raul Valdes’ job is kind of confusing right now. As one of only two lefties in the ‘pen, you would think his job would be to face other lefties. But actually, he has faced 11 right-handed batters (.273) and nine left-handers (.222). (He’s also never pitched in a winning game in six outings, but only one of those was his fault.) So we don’t know if he will be good or bad yet. We do know that Trever Miller is having an awful year. One unknown and one bad equals the need for lefty relief help: the only thing I think the Cards need to trade for. Fernando Salas has done a great job closing games, so the highly-proposed move for Heath Bell, who offered to come over from San Diego, is unnecessary.

And offense is obviously not a problem.

One more thing to consider: Who gets traded in these trades? The only chip that carries enough value for a big name player is Colby Rasmus. I’ve said it before and will keep saying that a trade of Rasmus is not a good idea right now. He is too young, has not hit his ceiling yet, and is playing virtually for free right now. If it ever looks like he won’t top out like he should, get something for him either this offseason or next year. But it’s better to wait and see than give away an All-Star in a tight payroll setup just to one-up the Brewers’ new setup man.

Postscript: Hit me up at my site or on Twitter @El_Maquino.

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Where Does Soria Go From Here?

Joakim Soria has been the Royals lone, rock-solid, star presence over the past three seasons, and no one had any doubt he would continue dominating from the mound in save situations this season. The closer role was about the only thing on this year’s Royals team that did not have a question mark by it. Unfortunately, Soria has been downright awful through the first third of the season, and has lost the closer role to Aaron Crow for the time being. Now the crucial question becomes if this is a temporary slump or injury that Soria will come back from, or if he is done as an elite reliever. In the hopes of shedding some light on the answer, I will take a look at other closers in history who have racked up a large amount of saves at a young age. The following list shows all 11 players with over 100 saves before their age 27 season (which Soria is in now):

Rk Player SV From To Age G IP ERA+
1 Francisco Rodriguez 208 2002 2008 20-26 408 451.2 190
2 Gregg Olson 160 1988 1993 21-26 320 350.1 176
3 Huston Street 149 2005 2010 21-26 355 378.0 148
4 Bobby Thigpen 148 1986 1990 22-26 277 382.1 148
5 Joakim Soria 132 2007 2010 23-26 238 255.0 219
6 Chad Cordero 128 2003 2008 21-26 305 320.2 155
7 Rod Beck 127 1991 1995 22-26 280 331.0 134
8 Mitch Williams 114 1986 1991 21-26 436 511.0 123
9 Ugueth Urbina 110 1995 2000 21-26 251 360.0 127
10 Matt Capps 109 2005 2010 21-26 345 344.2 127
11 Bruce Sutter 105 1976 1979 23-26 240 390.2 177

photo by Minda Haas

Rodriguez, Street and Capps are all still young and active, so the second part of their careers are still unfolding just like Soria’s is. I will take a brief look at the careers of the remaining seven pitchers from the list to see how some closers who racked up saves at an early age fared from age 27 on. The first number after their name is number of saves before age 27 season, and the second number is saves from age 27 to the end of their career.

Gregg Olson: 160 • 57
Olson suffered a torn elbow ligament at the age of 26 and was never the same. He bounced around in 10 transactions between 1994-2000, including two stops with the Royals. He managed one more big year as a closer after the injury, racking up 30 saves for Arizona in 1998.
Bobby Thigpen: 148 • 53
Thigpen started battling injuries at 26 also. After recording 30 and 22 saves at ages 27 and 28, he only posted one more save and was out of the majors at 30.
Chad Cordero: 128 • 0
Here is the worst case. Cordero posted all of his career saves before his age 26 season, then suffered a labrum tear. He has had a couple of failed comeback attempts but has been unable to stick in the majors since.
Rod Beck: 127 • 159
Here is a better looking career path. Beck continued to be a dominant closer at 28 and 29, and had a one year renaissance at age 34 when he converted all 20 of his save opportunities.
Mitch Williams: 114 • 78
Wild Thing stayed fantastic at 27 and 28 but was done after that, throwing less than 40 innings the rest of his career (including 6.2 with the 1997 Royals).
Ugueth Urbina: 110 • 127
Urbina remained fantastically effective until his career ended at age 31 with an arrest (and subsequent conviction and 14 year prison sentence) for a machete attack/gasoline dousing incident. Hopefully Soria can avoid that.
Bruce Sutter: 105 • 195
This I suppose would be the best case scenario, particularly with that Hall of Fame induction capping things off.

So we have four pitchers who recorded fewer saves after age 26 and three pitchers who piled up a greater number after that age. It is almost like we cannot predict the future. But this graph of the average number of saves the above pitchers posted by age does show how difficult it is to continue the level of performance Soria has held up in the last three years:

That looks pretty dramatic, but that is not surprising since I cherry picked guys who all were fantastic before turning 27. Some of them are going to flame out and tank the averages. In Beck, Urbina and Sutter, there are precedents for Soria carrying on as an elite closer. Only one of the above examples completely disappeared after turning 27 (Cordero). With a little time and luck, hopefully the Royals can fix whatever is ailing Soria, and he can get back to locking down Royals wins again soon.

Aaron Stilley also writes about Kansas City baseball at his blog here and on the tweeties.

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